-Matt Cox

Key Returners: Isaac Likekele, Avery Anderson, Matthew-Alexander Moncrieffe, Kalib Boone, Rondel Walker, Bryce Williams
Key Losses: Cade Cunningham
Key Newcomers: Moussa Cisse (Memphis), Bryce Thompson (Kansas), Tyreek Smith (Texas Tech) 

Lineup:

Outlook: It wasn’t supposed to end that way.

After thwarting a nonsensical postseason ban and rallying around their gipper, the fiercely loyal Mike Boynton, the stage was set for a storybook season. Led by Cade ‘the Chosen One’ Cunningham, the plot proceeded as planned, crescendo-ing in a Round of 32 date against… Oregon State?

Surrendering 80 points to those damn Beavers was a more head-scratching finale than the Sopranos. Just like that, it was all over. Cade was ultimately coronated with the top selection in the NBA Draft and the rest is history.

Building upon last year, devoid of a once-in-a-generation superstar, is a steep hill to climb. But I think these Cowboys have the inherent horsepower to do it.

To set the table, we begin with a trivia question. One of the many features of KenPom’s immaculate website is the ‘Game MVP’ score, a formulaic approach to anointing ‘the best player’ in any given game. Like any algorithm it’s not perfect, but it removes all qualitative biases from the equation.

Now to the question: In Oklahoma State’s 30 games last year, 21 of them victories, how many times did Cade Cunningham win ‘Game MVP’?

*Cue jeopardy music*

If you guessed 4, you clearly cheated – shame on you and I’m not impressed…

For the rest of you organically stunned in disbelief, digest that factoid for a second. The unicorn talent and top pick in the draft was worthy of MVP honors in only four of the Pokes’ 30 games.

So was he just worthless in those other 26 games? No, obviously not. Opposing defenses were routinely re-tooled specifically to stop him, so Cade’s ‘decoy value’ doesn’t shine through in those Game MVP calculations.

The point isn’t that Cade was overrated. It’s that his teammates were underrated. Very underrated.

For reference, here’s the distribution of Oklahoma State’s Game MVP awards, per KenPom:

• Cade Cunningham: 4

• Avery Anderson: 3

• Kalib Boone: 3

• Matthew-Alexander Moncrieffe, Rondell Walker, Isaac Likekele and Bryce Williams all tallied one Game MVP award

Even though Cade was the center of the universe, the Pokes didn’t panic without him. Recall the three times Cade was sidelined last year. The Cowboys won at West Virginia, smashed Iowa State by 20 at Hilton and played the eventual national champion (Baylor) to a stalemate for 30 minutes, before the Bears pulled away with a late run. 

Highlights from that Baylor battle could be the trailer for Kalib Boone’s 2021-22 hype video. Boone put up 21 points and 7 boards in 28 minutes against an historically elite defense, routinely bailing out a shell-shocked Pokes offense early in the game. Patience, balance and footwork are all redeeming traits of Boone’s game, a rarity in bigs as athletic as he is.

Extrapolating the strides he made last season, another year of development points to Boone being a reliable scoring outlet in 2022.

Joining him upfront is former 5-star prospect and Memphis defector Moussa Cisse. Cisse is rawer than a frozen steak offensively, but he’s an absolute destroyer around the rim. His commitment alone catapults OK State’s defense from ‘very good’ to ‘elite’. With Cisse and Boone paired together, Boynton now has two intimidating goalies lurking behind the swarming defensive pressure on the perimeter.

However, the Boone / Cisse integration does carry some risk. Boone will have to operate in tighter quarters alongside Cisse, as few defenders will hug Cisse away from the basket. To mitigate any interior logjams, a wise decision could be platooning Boone and Cisse at the 5, which would ensure the hyper-active Matthew-Alexander Moncrieffe (MAM) retains his optimal position at the 4.

No one doubts MAM’s mammoth talent – just watch him glide in transition or hawk an alley-oop lob and you’ll see how effortlessly he makes good athletes look like sloths. But, MAM has yet to discover a jump shot and his effectiveness remains largely predicated on length and athleticism. He provided a critical spark in a few key conference games last year but then vanished into thin air on multiple other occasions. With time and experience, bet on those freshman woes naturally eroding away.

MAM’s playing time will likely be challenged by Tyreek Smith, another high-octane athlete who comes to Stillwater in need of a fresh start and change of scenery, as well Kalib’s little brother Keylan Boone and Syracuse transfer Woody Newton. Boynton’s relentless work on the recruiting trail has transformed what was once a thin roster into a robust, neighboring on crowded, depth chart.

There’s no shortage of options on the perimeter, either. Isaac Likekele, Avery Anderson, Rondell Walker and Bryce Williams are back after clocking major minutes last season while former 5-star prospect Bryce Thompson is primed to crash the primary rotation as well. All excel to various degrees on the defensive end, but the big test will be replenishing Cade’s playmaking and shot making on offense. Likekele, the respected old soul of the bunch, will lead the charge but defenses have kept him in check by daring him to shoot from the outside. Cade was by far the Pokes’ most dangerous deep threat last year, so Anderson, Walker and Williams will need to collectively lift their 3-point FG% into the high 30s to keep defenses honest. Still, the ‘as-is’ version of this perimeter corps is potent enough to carry the torch sans Cade. They make their pay off the dribble, adept at slashing and creating contact to earn trips to the charity stripe.

Bottom Line: This is the recipe for a sleeping giant. Shrugged off by the loss of Cade Cunningham, the Pokes are getting zero ink as a bonafide Big-12 title contender. The young, unsung heroes are destined for the glory they partly deserved last season, no longer overshadowed by the Cade hype circus. Despite losing the most talented player to ever step foot on Gallagher-Iba arena, it’s entirely possible the Cowboys are every bit as good, if not better, than last year’s rendition.