- Ky McKeon

Preseason Predictions

Player of the Year: Mike Bothwell, Sr., Furman
Coach of the Year: Bob Richey, Furman
Newcomer of the Year: Silvio De Sousa, R Jr., Chattanooga
Freshman of the Year: Wesley Cardet, Fr., Samford

Tier 1

1. Furman

Key Returners: Mike Bothwell, Alex Hunter, Jalen Slawson, Garrett Hien, Colin Kenney, Jaylon Pugh, Marcus Foster, Jonny Lawrence, Joe Anderson
Key Losses: Noah Gurley, Clay Mounce
Key Newcomers: Conley Garrison (DII transfer), JP Pegues, Tyrese Hughey, Alex Williams, James Repass

Lineup:

Outlook: I could write a 3,000-word preview waxing poetic on Furman head coach Bob Richey, but I’ll try to boil it down into a few sentences. Bob Richey is one of the premier coaches in college basketball, at any level, period. All four seasons during his tenure the Paladins have ranked inside KenPom’s top 100. The total number of top 100 finishes in the other 21 seasons represented in KenPom? ZERO. Richey is 51-18 in SoCon play since taking over for Nico Medved in 2017 and many thought his squad had the firepower to fight for an at-large bid in 2020-21. While Furman played Cincy and Alabama to within 5 and 3 points, respectively, the ‘Dins came up short of the Dance once again. The program hasn’t seen the NCAA Tournament field since 1980, but with Richey at the helm and his team a perennial league title favorite, that drought is sure to end soon.

Richey’s offense is a thing of beauty. His teams spread the floor and make sure to get a quality shot each and every possession. The Paladins have ranked inside the top 20 of 3PA rate all four years under Richey, and, incredibly, have ranked inside the top ten in 2PFG% each year as well. The latter stat is primarily due to shot selection – for Furman, it’s essentially 3s or layups. The ‘Dins ranked 340th nationally last season in percentage of 2P jumpers attempted (Hoop-Math). Ball movement is also a priority – you won’t see a ton of isolation or over-dribbling in Richey’s half-court sets; his teams are unselfish and move the ball to open shooters.

Two of Furman’s best players depart this offseason in Noah Gurley and Clay Mounce, but with Richey’s starting backcourt returning, the offense should still be as potent as ever. Mike Bothwell, a 2nd Team All-SoCon selection last season, is looking to take the next step and ascend into superstar status. His 3P% dipped to just 29% in 2020-21 from a sophomore 35%, but rest assured he’s among the premier shot makers in the league. Bothwell is a true three-level scorer who can create his own shot and make plays for others; his length and athleticism also make him a worthy perimeter defender on the other end of the floor.

Point guard Alex Hunter elected to return for his 5th season, giving the ‘Dins a steady presence at the point of attack. Hunter is a minutes workhorse and an extremely efficient player, ranking 2nd in the SoCon in O-rating last season. In addition to handling (and protecting) the rock, Hunter is a knockdown outside shooter, cashing over 40% of his 3P tries in 2020-21. He and Bothwell form one of the best 1-2 backcourt punches in the league.

Senior Jalen Slawson is the other primary holdover from last season, a 6’7” do-everything forward looking to breakout in his final(?) season outside of Mounce and Gurley’s shadows. Slawson is an improving shooter and excellent finisher and passer on the offensive end, and a solid defender on the other. He ranked 3rd in the SoCon in block rate last season.

‘Who steps up to replace major departure A and major departure B?’ is a question Richey’s squads have faced every offseason. Last year it was Jordan Lyons, before that Matt Rafferty, and now it’s Mounce and Gurley. Though the options this season may be unproven, it doesn’t mean they are without talent.

Sophomores Garret Hien and Jonny Lawrence will compete for a starting spot in the frontcourt. Hien started five games as a freshman and is a typical paint-bound presence, though skinny. While he hasn’t proven to be a formidable shot blocker in just one year in college, his length suggests he could improve in this area over time. Lawrence is a stretch forward who knocked down 47% of his 3PA last season. He had an impressive 4-game run in February, averaging 7.3 PPG in 14.3 MPG. Lawrence also might offer a little more in the rim protection department than Hien.

Waiting in the wings on the frontcourt depth chart are freshmen Tyrese Hughey and James Repass, both borderline 3-star prospects depending on your preferred recruiting source. Hughey has a college-ready frame and dunks everything. His strength and athleticism likely put him on the court sooner rather than later. Repass might be a year or two away, but he brings legitimate rim protection potential.

Replacing Mounce on the wing will be a tall task, but Marcus Foster appears to be an enticing candidate, at least size-wise. Foster’s 6’4” frame will allow him to guard 3s and his versatility can pay dividends defensively. Richey also might go small (something he isn’t afraid to do) and start another true guard alongside Hunter and Bothwell, like Drury transfer Conley Garrison or returners Colin Kenney or Jaylon Pugh. Garrison averaged 17.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG, and 4.0 APG in DII ball last season while shooting nearly 40% from 3 and making his conference’s All-Defense team. He is one of the best players in Drury history and has the poise, toughness, and shooting ability to be successful at the DI level. Kenney and Pugh are primarily shooters. The latter, a 36% career outside shooter, started the final game of 2021 and poured in nine points in 27 minutes.

Sophomore Joe Anderson and freshmen JP Pegues and Alex Williams round out the wing/backcourt rotation. Pegues is a player to watch down the road; he’s a long point guard with defensive upside.

Speaking of defense, the Paladins have done it extremely well under Richey, ranking in the SoCon’s top three of adjusted efficiency all four seasons. Discipline and balance have been keys in Furman’s success; the ‘Dins don’t do anything poorly on this end. They force turnovers, they rebound, and they force long possessions.

Bottom Line: Furman hasn’t won the league in any of Richey’s four seasons, but it has been a top three team analytically since Richey took over. With UNCG’s coach and player exodus, this season could finally be the year the ‘Dins take the SoCon and reach the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 40 years.

2. Chattanooga

Key Returners: David Jean-Baptiste, Malachi Smith, Darius Banks, KC Hankton, Jamaal Walker, AJ Caldwell, Josh Ayeni
Key Losses: Stefan Kenic
Key Newcomers: Silvio De Sousa (Kansas), Avery Diggs (UCF), Tada Stricklen (JUCO), Randy Brady

Lineup:

Outlook: The Mocs have quietly strung together two impressive seasons in a row under Lamont Paris, who got off to a rocky start after taking over the program from Matt McCall in 2017. Chattanooga is 38-21 (19-15) over the last two seasons and, more importantly, has vastly outperformed its preseason KenPom rank, finishing around 150th in 2020 and 2021. Paris dealt with a slew of injuries, COVID, and other issues last year forcing him to keep a razor thin bench, but his Mocs were still among the most dangerous SoCon squads. This year the Mocs have real depth and a roster talented enough to win the conference. An auto-bid to the NCAA Tournament would be the school’s first since 2016.

Ball-handling and shooting are two trump cards that can overcome glaring issues elsewhere, and the Mocs have both in spades this year. With the return of its entire backcourt, the Mocs will look to repeat its 30th-best TO rate, 10th-best FT%, and top 100 3P% from a year ago. David Jean-Baptiste and Malachi Smith, both All-Conference selections in 2020-21, will form arguably the best backcourt duo in the league. Both players can score from anywhere and both have that coveted “get out of jail free card” ability to get a bucket when the offense breaks down.

Smith will handle point guard duties, but at 6’4” he can play multiple spots on the floor. The former Wright State guard shot 40% from downtown last year (45% in SoCon play) and was one of the top players in the league as a sophomore.

Jean-Baptiste is a killer – it seems like every Moc game I watched he was hitting impossible shots. DJB entered the transfer portal midway through last season but ended up returning to school, much to his team’s relief. Like Smith, DJB is an excellent outside shooter (40% 3P% in SC play, 38% overall), and he is incredibly shifty with the ball and hard to stop in isolation.

Paris and the Mocs will hope to get full seasons out of Darius Banks and KC Hankton this year after the pair missed 25 games combined in 2020-21. Banks arrived from James Madison last season but didn’t see action until mid-January. He immediately stepped into a starting role and provided much-needed offense with his ability to play the 3 or 4 and score in the post, off the drive, or from outside the arc. Hankton, a SLU transfer, was highly effective when he was on the court last season. Paris likes to use him as a small-ball 5 giving his lineup five legitimate shooting weapons on the court at once. Both players are hard to guard due to their versatility and both players impact the game in a multitude of ways.

Jamaal Walker and AJ Caldwell are the primary returning support pieces. Walker is a long sophomore who had his best game of the season against ETSU the last night of the year, pouring in 16 points in 36 minutes. Caldwell is a glue guy and 3P specialist who canned 40% of his outside shots in 2020-21 while ranking 2nd on the team in minutes played.

Paris likely continues playing his slow tempo, half-court style, but he does have the bodies this year to get up and down the floor more. JUCO transfer Tada Stricklen, who began his career at Morehead State, averaged 12.4 PPG, 4.4 RPG, and 4.6 APG for Southwest Mississippi last season while shooting 42.4% from 3. 3-star freshman wing Randy Brady is a skilled two-way player who, like Banks, can play multiple positions on the floor.

The Mocs have plenty of shooting once again this season to score effectively in their 4-out / 1-in attack, but they’ll also likely look to prioritize the post more with the arrival of Kansas transfer Silvio De Sousa. De Sousa, a former top 35 4-star recruit, has had a challenging career and missed all of last season while being investigated for aggravated battery (found not guilty). De Sousa is most famous for his WWE style chair pickup during the K State / KU brawl of 2020.

On the court, De Sousa could be a real force in the SoCon. He’s enormous, can dominate the glass, and be an intimidating rim stopper on the defensive end. If he’s locked in this season, he’s an All-Conference caliber player.

For good measure Paris also added UCF transfer Avery Diggs, a 6’10” center who will give the Mocs even more depth in the frontcourt. Oh, and Josh Ayeni is apparently back for a 5th year, as well. He started 17 games for the Mocs last season after coming over from South Alabama and previously serving for St. Bonaventure. Ayeni is yet another physical big in Paris’s frontcourt arsenal.

The Mocs have improved defensively each season under Paris, and this year should be their best defensive team with improved depth, health, and the arrival of De Sousa. Switchability on the floor at all times makes Chattanooga a tough team to score against in pick-n-rolls, and now the Mocs have the size to shore up their rim weakness of last season.

Bottom Line: Chattanooga has all the pieces to win its first SoCon title since 2016. The Mocs are talented at every position, led by a dynamic backcourt duo, and anchored by Power 6 center. What’s not to like?

3. Wofford

Key Returners: Morgan Safford, Max Klesmit, Ryan Larson, Messiah Jones, BJ Mack, Sam Godwin, Isaiah Bigelow, Keaton Turner, Austin Patterson
Key Losses: Storm Murphy, Tray Hollowell
Key Newcomers: Luke Turner, Corey Tripp, Dante Kiesenhofer

Lineup:

Outlook: Wofford bounced back last year after a disappointing 2019-20 season, finishing in 2nd place in the SoCon at a robust 12-5. Head coach Jay McAuley led his squad to a final KenPom rank of 127, exceeding expectations and continuing Wofford’s proud tradition of being one of the better mid-major squads in the country. This year McAuley will have to deal with the loss of All-League guard Storm Murphy, a gifted scorer and playmaker who transferred to Virginia Tech this offseason. Also gone is second-leading scorer Tray Hollowell. But McAuley has plenty of talent this season, led by three rising sophomores, with which to fight for a SoCon title and NCAA Tourney berth.

McAuley kept Mike Young’s mover-blocker offensive principles when he took over in 2019. The offense revolves around 2-3 “blockers” head hunting for screens to free 2-3 “movers” for open shots or drive opportunities. It’s a motion attack that eats time in the half-court and forces defenses to stay disciplined as they fight through screen after screen. Wofford has ranked 1st and 4th nationally in frequency of possessions ended via catches off screens in McAuley’s two seasons, a direct result of this offensive style.

In the GIF above, we see Murphy catching off a curl and then feeding to Ryan Larson coming off a fade — the constant motion throws the defense off balance and opens up a clean lane to the hoop. When firing on all cylinders, the offense is a sight to behold – it gives players freedom to read and react to screens in constant motion to keep opponents guessing.

Wofford attempted the highest rate of 3s in the country last season and 12th highest in McAuley’s first year. McAuley often starts four guards and an undersized 5-man, and his Terrier squads tend to live and die by the 3-point shot. Lucky for him Wofford always has a roster chock full of good shooters. The last four seasons Wofford has ranked 21st, 32nd, 4th, and 24th in the country in eFG%.

Defense hasn’t been a particular strength under McAuley, but it hasn’t been atrocious either. Wofford’s lack of size hurts them on the glass, but they generally do a good job at keeping opponents out of the lane, away from the rim, and off the free throw line, albeit at the expense of allowing a high rate of 3PA.

We at 3MW love teams with talented rising sophomores, as that is the year players often make the largest leaps in production. Wofford has three enticing sophomores this season, all of whom earned spots on at least one SoCon All-Freshman Team in 2020-21. Morgan Safford was a full-time starter last season after redshirting in 2019-20. He’s a versatile wing and three-level scorer who often serves as the de facto 4 in McAuley’s 4-guard lineup. A good shooter and capable post-up threat against smaller defenders, Safford is a dangerous offensive weapon who has just scratched the surface of his potential.

Max Klesmit and Sam Godwin are Wofford’s other two key rising sophomores. Klesmit is a tough, skilled combo guard who shot 37.3% from deep last year while ranking 2nd in the league in steal rate. Not just a shooter, Klesmit can also put the ball on the floor and take it to the rack. He’ll likely seize a full-time starting gig this season and assist in the ball handling duties left behind by Murphy.

Godwin started five games as a freshman and could crack the starting five once again this year. He’s a great offensive rebounder and solid rim protector, two attributes Wofford desperately needs on the floor.

McAuley’s other sophomores, Keaton Turner and Austin Patterson, will have to fight and scrap for more PT this year after playing limited minutes in 2020-21. Turner will serve as a backup PG option while Patterson is mostly a shooter who knocked down just 26% of his 3PA with his unconventional (some would say weird) form.

Replacing Murphy at the point of attack will be no easy feat. Klesmit and Turner will both see reps at point, but Ryan Larson seems to be the heir apparent. Larson led the SoCon in 3P% last year, canning 47.6% of his league 3PA. Like Klesmit, Larson is a smart player who can take advantage of sloppy closeouts and put the ball on the deck off catches. He’s also a surprisingly feisty defender and hard-nosed player – a very Wofford type of guy.

Freshman Corey Tripp could also serve as a ball handler in his first season in Spartanburg. Tripp is a tough guard with college-ready size and strength who plays with poise and purpose. McAuley might have a difficult time keeping him off the floor.

Up front juniors Messiah Jones and BJ Mack will compete with Godwin for starting 5 honors (McAuley prefers not to play two bigs together). Jones is undersized for his position at 6’6” but makes up for it by being a fierce rebounder (led the SoCon in OR% two years ago) and decent rim stopper. Mack is a wide-bodied post player who possesses a lightning quick spin move and surprising mobility on the perimeter. Both guys will see plenty of run this season. 7’1” senior David Appelgren likely barely sees the floor again – he’s had an injury plagued career.

Isaiah Bigelow will also be in the mix for starts after missing the entire 2020-21 season with a knee injury. He’s a long, versatile wing who can shoot, drive, and guard 4s on the other end of the floor.

Freshmen Luke Turner and Dante Kiesenhofer round out McAuley’s roster. Turner is a skilled 3-star wing per ESPN who can shoot the lights out (naturally). While not super athletic, Turner’s size and shooting combo should allow him to get on the floor this season. Kiesenhofer is a year or two away from contributing; he’s a long skinny athlete with 3-point range.

Bottom Line: Wofford has a high amount of continuity in what should be a wide open SoCon race. Despite the loss of Murphy and Hollowell, McAuley has a roster capable of lighting the nets on fire and competing for a conference crown. With just two seniors on the roster the Terriers promise to continue being a perennial threat to win the league’s auto-bid and be among the best mid-major squads in the land.

4. East Tennessee State

Key Returners: Ledarrius Brewer, David Sloan, Silas Adheke, Vonnie Patterson, Ty Brewer, Charlie Weber
Key Losses: Damari Monsanto, Serrel Smith
Key Newcomers: Jordan King (Siena), Jaden Seymour (Wichita State), Kordell Charles, Mohab Yasser, Matt Nunez

Lineup:

Outlook: ETSU had one of the more tumultuous offseasons in all of college basketball. Former head coach Jason Shay resigned under not great circumstances; reports were the school was angry with him for supporting his players in their national anthem protest during the regular season. More on that here.

It was a raw deal for Shay who only just won the head coaching position following Steve Forbes’ departure to Wake Forest. Fortunately for Shay, Forbes added him to the Wake staff, so at least the former head coach landed on his feet.

Desmond Oliver is the new head coach in Johnson City, a college basketball assistant since 1994 who spent the past six years on Rick Barnes’s staff at Tennessee. Oliver has the reputation of being one of the top recruiters in the country, and his players seem to love him. That was reinforced by ETSU’s relatively little turnover this offseason; the Bucs lost only one key player to the portal (SoCon FOY Damari Monsanto), and Oliver convinced the brothers Brewer to stick around along with three super seniors. ETSU will look to get back to its dominant ways after a season in which it finished a mediocre 13-12 (8-7). It was the first time since 2015 the Bucs won less than 20 games overall and 10 in conference play.

With a change in coach usually comes a change in style, and all signs are pointing to a meaningful shift in offensive philosophy if offseason chatter is to be believed. Obviously not all coaches follow through on what they say during media interviews, but if we’re to believe Oliver then we should see a substantial uptick in tempo in Johnson City. Oliver’s goal is score quickly off steals and opponent misses, a stark contrast to his predecessor who largely played in the halfcourt and played at one of the slower tempos in the country. ETSU was the best offensive rebounding team in the SoCon last year, and given personnel continuity, we should expect that to be the same in 2021-22. The Bucs will likely continue to emphasize the 3-ball, as their best two outside shooters return, and they add another sniper from the portal. As was the case in 2020-21, guard play will once again be king in Johnson City.

Defensively, we can glean from Oliver’s talk of tempo that he’ll want to extend pressure and try to force turnovers. He has the length to do it, as nearly every wing on the roster is super long and athletic. ETSU prioritized protecting the rim last season over denying the 3, but with Oliver that could shift a bit. The Bucs do lack height on the top line, but they have plenty of physicality and strength to make up for it.

The backcourt will be the source for most of ETSU’s offense with the return of Ledarrius Brewer and David Sloan. Brewer was a 1st Team All-SoCon honoree after transferring from SEMO, shooting nearly 38% from deep and finishing well inside the arc. Brewer is adept at not stopping too early and settling on his drives through the lane – he makes clean, purposeful moves and gets as close to the bucket as possible before he shoots. He’s incredibly hard to defend.

Brewer will look to clamp down on turnover issues that have plagued him throughout his career – he’ll have a high usage role in Oliver’s offense and will be counted on to lead the Bucs in scoring once again.

Sloan took over PG duties last season after coming over from Kansas State. He ranked 3rd in the SoCon in assist rate while maintaining an acceptable TO rate in league play. Sloan is quick and shifty and an ideal lead guard for an upper-level mid-major. He led all Bucs last season with a 41% 3P shooting clip.

Siena transfer Jordan King will likely slot into the vacant wing spot alongside Brewer and Sloan. King was a 3rd Team All-MAAC selection last season and is a career 36% from behind the arc.

In addition to Brewer, who is a LONG and disruptive wing on the defensive end, Oliver has plenty of other versatile players to slot a the 2, 3, or 4 positions. Brewer’s brother Ty Brewer, a former Southeastern Louisiana transfer, is four inches taller than his bro and every bit as long proportionally. He was a terrific 6th man last season and now might be in line for starting duties. Brewer is a solid rebounder and ranked 5th in the SoCon in steal rate last season; he’s a multi-positional player who can shoot and handle the rock on the perimeter.

Vonnie Patterson started every game last season and was often used as an undersized 4 in Shay’s lineups. He is yet another long Buc who excels on the defensive end. Wichita State transfer Jaden Seymour will add even more length after barely seeing the floor with the Shockers. Seymour’s length and shooting ability should allow him to carve out a regular role in the rotation.

ETSU received big news when Silas Adheke opted to return for another year. Though just 6’8” Adekhe is a load of a center who started every game for the Bucs after transferring in from Northern Kentucky. Adheke ranked 2nd in the SoCon in OR% and 5th in block rate; he’s not a polished offensive player, but he did lead the league in FT rate and holds his own with his strength. 6’9” junior Charlie Weber will be Adheke’s primary backup at the 5. Weber can space the floor and is an asset on the glass.

Two players stand out in Oliver’s inaugural freshman class. 3-star wing and IMG Academy alum Kordell Charles has fantastic length and plenty of athleticism. With his ability to play either the 3 or 4, he should be able to work his way to playing time this season. Egyptian guard Mohab Yasser, who initially committed to LSU, is the readiest to contribute of all the freshmen per Oliver. Yasser is a skilled combo guard whose craftiness allows him to knife into the paint with ease. He’s seen plenty of high-level competition on the international stage.

Freshman Allen Strothers, a Shay signee, is an athletic lead guard. Isaac Farah is a long, athletic PF who can run the floor and shoot from deep. Brandon Hall out of Chicago adds depth in the backcourt. Matt Nunez adds size to the frontcourt. Nunez probably has the best shot at making an impact of this foursome given ETSU’s lack of size up front.

Bottom Line: Despite the coaching change (and the tough circumstances surrounding it) ETSU should very much be considered a contender to win the SoCon in 2021-22. Oliver appears to be an excellent hire, and he has a roster chock full of experience, continuity, talent, and athleticism. 20+ overall wins and 10+ league wins should be well within ETSU’s grasp.  

5. UNC Greensboro

Key Returners: Keyshaun Langley, Kaleb Hunter, Mohammed Abdulsalam, Khyre Thompson, Kobe Langley, Bas Leyte
Key Losses: Isaiah Miller, Angelo Allegri, Hayden Koval, AJ McGinnis, Jarrett Hensley
Key Newcomers: De’Monte Buckingham (Cal State Bakersfield), Jalen White (Texas A&M CC), Dante Treacy (Robert Morris), Miles Jones (Radford), AJ Williams, Jalen Breath

Lineup:

Outlook: Wes Miller built the UNCG program into a SoCon juggernaut during his 10-year tenure. After overcoming challenges in his first few seasons, the Spartans flourished under his leadership going a magnificent 70-20 in league play over the last five years. Miller was rewarded for his hard work with the Cincinnati job, a position that opened unexpectedly this past offseason with the firing of John Brannen. In Miller’s place steps Mike Jones, who himself spent 10 years building a program into a perennial conference title contender. Jones’s Radford Highlanders went 51-19 over the last four seasons in the Big South and punched a bid to the Dance in 2018.

Miller didn’t leave the cupboard bare, but the glaring departure from last year’s squad happens to be the 2x SoCon POY and 3x SoCon DPOY. Isaiah Miller graduated UNCG as the school’s 3rd all-time leading scorer. His production is impossible to replace by just one player, so Jones will hope he can get it done by committee.

Two backcourt starters return in Keyshaun Langley and Kaleb Hunter, Miller’s right- and left-hand men from last season. Langley will assume full-time PG / ball-handling duties after posting the 9th best assist rate in the league in 2020-21 (impressive considering Miller’s usage). A career 34% outside shooter with the ability to get to the bucket, Langley is a weapon offensively, one who is a good bet to lead the Spartans in scoring and vie for All-Conference honors.

Hunter is a solid, sizable wing who functions better as a slasher versus shooter. The 6’4” lefty can play the 2 or 3 on both sides of the ball.

Jones’s third returning starter is Mohammed Abdulsalam, a 6’9” big man and monster on the glass. He led the SoCon in OR% last season and ranked 3rd in DR% making him the premier rebounder in the league. While more limited offensively (83% of his FGA came near the rim, per Hoop-Math), Abdulsalam is extremely valuable for his rebounding presence and interior defense.

UNCG will need to rely on transfers for production this season, and Jones has a handful who could find success in the SoCon. De’Monte Buckingham graduated high school in 2016, earned A-10 Rookie of the Year honors at Richmond in 2016-17, and spent the past two seasons at Cal State Bakersfield. He should slot into a starting role with his talent and multi-positionality.

Robert Morris transfer Dante Treacy should serve as backup PG. He was the 2020 NEC Tournament MVP and is a 35% career 3P shooter. Treacy will compete with Keyshaun’s twin Kobe Langley for minutes in the backcourt and is likely ahead of Oak Hill freshman AJ Williams on the pecking order.

Up front look for Texas A&M CC transfer Jalen White to compete for the starting 4-spot along with returner Khyre Thompson. White led the Islanders in scoring last season and ranked 4th in the Southland in FT rate. Despite his size (he’s wide), White is deceptively quick and can handle the ball on the perimeter. He’ll give Jones plenty of versatility when paired with the likes of Buckingham and Hunter. Thompson is a hard worker and rebounder who knows his supporting role.

Dutchman Bas Leyte should see a spike in playing time with Hayden Koval’s departure. Leyte can shoot the 3 and has size to defend on the block. Jones’s son Miles Jones travels with him from Radford; he adds depth to the frontcourt and more rebounding. 6’8” freshman Jalen Breath is a long athletic forward with gobs of potential. If he doesn’t see much time this year, he’s certain to be a factor over the next season or two.

New coach means potentially new style, so what should we expect from Mike Jones? Jones’s teams played very slow at Radford, especially the past five or so years. If he brought this tempo to UNCG, it would be in stark contrast to Miller’s uptempo system. Now, Jones has said this offseason he wants to be an uptempo team, but there’s always plenty of coach speak in those offseason interviews.

Two things that won’t change from Miller to Jones is emphasis on defense and rebounding. UNCG was always a tough rebounding team under Miller and it’s been a top-75 national defensive squad the past four years. Jones stated this offseason his Spartans will be a “defense and rebound oriented team”. Expect to still see some full-court pressure this season, as Radford pressed at a top-40 national rate (UNCG pressed at the 6th highest rate). Whereas Miller implemented a zone full-court press, Jones prefers to play man, which will bleed into his half-court defensive style as well.

Bottom Line: Mike Jones has already proven his ability to build a successful program and coach his squad to the NCAA Tournament. Now at UNCG, he won’t have to worry so much about the building part, but he will need to bring his coaching A-game to a Southern Conference chock full of Tourney-caliber squads.

6. Mercer

Key Returners: Neftali Alvarez, Felipe Haase, James Glisson, Kamar Robertson, Jacksen Greco
Key Losses: Leon Ayers, Maciej Bender, Ross Cummings, Jeff Gary
Key Newcomers: Jalen Johnson (Wake Forest), Shawn Walker Jr. (JUCO), Javian Mosley***, Quay Primas***

*** Not on roster as of this publishing date (think it’s just a freshmen thing)

Lineup:

Outlook: Don’t let the 8-9 SoCon record fool you – the Mercer Bears had a hell of a 2020-21 season. Greg Gary led his program to its best KenPom finish since 2014 and upended Georgia Tech on the road in the process. Having a healthier roster, particularly a fully healthy star guard Ross Cummings, certainly helped. Gary enters his third year with Mercer looking to compete near the top of the league.

Cummings is gone, but Mercer still has plenty of talent left in the cupboard. 3rd Team All-SoCon point guard Neftali Alvarez returns to lead the offense after turning in a stellar season in which he ranked 5th in the conference in usage. Alvarez runs Gary’s motion-heavy offense and sets the table for the Bears’ plethora of shooters. While not a great shooter himself, Alvarez makes up for it with his ability to attack the basket and get to the line. In 2020-21 Alvarez ranked in the top ten in the SoCon in both fouls drawn per 40 minutes and FT rate.

Gary will need to find someone to step into Cummings’s shoes and provide production in the backcourt. Kamar Robertson and Jacksen Greco will each be in the running for starts. Robertson was a partial starter as a freshman when Cummings was on the sidelines, but his PT dwindled when the star returned. He’s a career 36% 3P shooter and should function well in Gary’s spaced attack. Greco is another shooter, but he needs to add strength at just 6’3” 150 lbs.

Diego Rivera and Jovan Tucker will provide depth, but JUCO transfer Shawn Walker Jr. seems poised to take on a major role. Walker is a lights out shooter who averaged 11.2 PPG at Tallahassee CC last year while shooting 47% from deep. Javian Mosley, a 6’4” freshman, will add athleticism and defense to the fold.

Wake transfer Jalen Johnson (the ‘other’ Jalen Johnson in the ACC last season) is a huge addition to the wing position. Johnson is a 5th year player who began his career at Tennessee. His versatility to the lineup will be a boon defensively, and he should be one of the more talented players in the SoCon this season.

There’s consistency up front with the return of former South Carolina forward Felipe Haase and junior James Glisson. Haase started every game last season after transferring from the SEC. He’s a stretch forward who hit nearly 40% of his bomb attempts last season while ranking 5th in the league in DR%. A money shooter with a lightning quick release, Haase needs no space to get off a clean shot. Glisson started the final 13 games for the Bears last season; he’s a long athlete who knows his role and takes good, high percentage shots.

6’10” behemoth Shannon Grant, a lumbering center who played sparingly as a freshman, will look to continue his development and provide more minutes in 2021-22. Freshman forward Quay Primas is a strong 4-man who adds aggressiveness, energy, and rebounding to the lineup.

Greg Gary is known for his offensive prowess, coming to Mercer after serving as Matt Painter’s “offensive coordinator” at Purdue. Gary’s sets are a pain in the ass to play against, with their myriad of back screens, down screens, hand-offs, and cuts. Ball movement is king in this system – the Bears led the SoCon in assist rate in 2020-21. Mercer shot a fair number of triples last season, but not relative to other SoCon squads, finishing last in 3PA rate last year in league play. The Bears work to get easy looks near the bucket or open shots from downtown.

Mercer was average defensively last season and figures to be again in 2021-22, though the added athleticism could help improve the overall product. The Bears did well to deny 3PA and force isolation but were often burned in transition.

Bottom Line: Mercer has the horses to compete near the top of the SoCon this season. Gary is an excellent coach, and he’ll have one of the league’s best point guards running the show in 2021-22. In a competitive league, Mercer is right in the thick of things.

Tier 2

7. VMI

Key Returners: Jake Stephens, Trey Bonham, Kamdyn Curfman, Sean Conway, Louis Tang, Tanner Mans, DJ Nussbaum
Key Losses: Greg Parham, Myles Lewis
Key Newcomers: Brennan Watkins, Honor Huff, Cooper Sisco, Lewis Rowe (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: Dan Earl has quietly established himself as one of the best coaches at the mid-major level. But, Ky, you ask, how can a guy who is 57-189 in six seasons be considered a top tier coach? Well, little Billy, it’s because of this: VMI is a really f*cking hard place to win at. Those who know the SoCon think so as well, as evidenced by the Coach of the Year hardware Earl took home last season after leading his Keydets to a 7-7 league mark. 2020-21 was the fourth straight season Earl has out-performed his preseason KenPom rank, and now he has the momentum and roster continuity to push for a top five league finish.

To become elite this season VMI needs to figure out how to win away from Lexington. The Keydets were a sparking 11-1 at home in 2020-21 despite not having any fans in the stands but just 1-10 on the road. Increased experience, maturity, and continuity should help improve this split in 2021-22.

Nearly everyone returns for Earl, which means we should expect to see another potent offense from the Keydets. Earl’s teams play fast, looking to push the ball in transition, and hunt 3s. VMI has ranked in the top 25 of 3PA rate each of the past three seasons and figures to again in 2021-22. In the halfcourt there is a heavy dose of Princeton elements, as Earl likes to pull big man Jake Stephens away from the hoop and use him as a catalyst at the top of the key.

Stephens, a 3rd Team All-SoCon member last year, is excellent in this role due to his passing ability (2nd on the team in assist rate last year, 8th in the SoCon) and shooting range. He’s adept at finding cutters slicing through the lane or sneaking backdoor on the baseline.

VMI often plays five legitimate 3-point threats on the court at once, making it nearly impossible to guard. Do you overextend and deny the pass to the wing shooter? Or do you sag off and prevent back-cuts? It’s a difficult decision and one Stephens and Co. can pick apart with their eyes closed.

Of course, basketball isn’t just an offensive game, which is a shame for the offensive minded Keydets. Defense matters a ton, and VMI knows that all too well. The Keydets have been poor defensively under Earl every season, and really if we go back further in time, they’ve been poor defensively since about 2001. Earl uses a lot of junk zones in the half-court, mixing it up between simple 2-3 and matchup varieties in an effort to confuse his opponent. He’ll also throw out a full-court or three-quarter press, in an effort to slow the other team down or get a steal off a trap. VMI wasn’t successful at the latter in 2020-21, as only two teams in the country posted a lower TO rate. And, the Keydets’ 2-3 zone was routinely shredded from behind the arc. Will this improve in 2021-22? Probably not – Earl still severely lacks perimeter size and length, and there’s little reason to believe his team will show marked improvement on this end. Outscoring the opposition will be the name of the game.

All-SoCon performer Greg Parham departs this offseason, but VMI brings back three other backcourt starters in Trey Bonham, Kamdyn Curfman, and Sean Conway. Bonham earned All-Freshman Team honors in the SoCon last season and projects for a breakout year as the primary ball handler and creator. He shot 43% from deep last season and now looks to take the next step in his development. Curfman will share in ball handling duties and provide the Keydets with another sniper on the perimeter. He knocked down 39.5% of his 3PA last year while leading the league in minutes. Conway has legit size on the wing at 6’5” and is yet another Keydet who shot over 39% from downtown in 2020-21.

The fifth starting spot is up for grabs. 6’4” junior Louis Tang could snag it after missing almost the entire season due to injury. He adds a rebounding element in addition to, you guessed it, more shooting. 6’6” wing Tanner Mans will also be in the mix for starts in his second season. Devin Butler will continue to provide backcourt depth.

Up front DJ Nussbaum looks to take the primary big man backup role behind Stephens, though JUCO transfer Lewis Rowe might skip him in the rotation. Rowe is an Aussie who averaged 5.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG, and 0.7 BPG as a freshman last season. He can space the floor and is burly enough to bang inside with fellow centers. Connor Arnold rounds out the frontcourt rotation.

Freshmen Brennan Watkins, Honor Huff, and Cooper Sisco will each try to crack the rotation in their inaugural seasons. Watkins is a combo guard who shot over 44% from 3 in high school and looks tailormade to be a VMI Keydet. Huff brings athleticism and quickness to the PG position. Sisco is a long, skinny wing shooter who might need a year or two more to develop.

Bottom Line: Last season was the first time VMI has ever defeated the top four teams in the SoCon in the same season (and first time in any conference since 2009 in the Big South). The Keydets program is trending up and has the firepower to continue to throw haymakers at the big dogs in conference play. A top five finish is a realistic goal for a perennial league bottom feeder.

Tier 3

8. The Citadel

Key Returners: Hayden Brown, Tyler Moffe, Stephen Clark, Brady Spence, Rudy Fitzgibbons, Brent Davis
Key Losses: Kaiden Rice, Fletcher Abee, Derek Webster
Key Newcomers: Jason Roche, Jackson Price, Brock Wakefield

Lineup:

Outlook: Embrace the Pace. That is what head coach Duggar Baucom has asked his teams to do every year for 16 seasons. “Duggarball” as it has come to be known is a fast-paced, up-and-down style that preaches running in transition, shooting quick open 3s, and putting pressure on opponents. Most of the time this style of play has been repeatedly burned by competent competition, but the Citadel is an impossible place to win at, so we can somewhat excuse Baucom’s 64-118 (21-85) mark at the school. Last season Baucom finally fielded a legitimate squad, as his Bulldogs finished over .500 for the first time since 2010. It was his best KenPom season ever at the Citadel and best overall since 2014 with VMI. With three starters returning including his best player Baucom has his eyes set on finishing in the top half of the SoCon standings for the first time ever.

The Citadel does most of its damage in transition, where it ranked 6th nationally in percentage of FGA last season per Hoop-Math. Instead of stopping opponents, the idea is to simply outscore them. Last season the Bulldogs took care of the ball better than they ever have under Baucom, thanks in large part to JUCO PG Tyler Moffe. His return should set them up for steady handling once again in 2021-22.

Moffe has a bit of “Jason Williams aka White Chocolate” in him with the way he passes and sees the floor. He ranked 5th in the SoCon in assist rate last season and doubled as a decent shooter. With him at the helm the Citadel has a steady presence at the point of attack.

Of course, the biggest returner this season is forward Hayden Brown, a 1st Team All-SoCon selection last season who led the league in rebounding and ranked second in scoring. Brown is a physical, strong, athletic forward who can score from anywhere and bully weaker opponents to the cup. He led the conference in fouls drawn per 40 minutes in 2020-21 and ranked 2nd in FT rate. Simply put, Brown is a beast who will be on the shortlist for SoCon POY this season.

Shooting is key in Baucom’s system, as his Bulldogs take a ton of outside shots. The Dogs have never been an excellent shooting team under Baucom, but they were improved in 2020-21 and figure to be again this season. Fletcher Abee was the most prolific shooter set to return, but his (odd?) decision to transfer in late August knocks the Dogs down a peg in the shooting department. 6’3” sophomore Brent Davis is a good candidate to take one of Abee’s or Kaiden Rice’s starting spot after a so-so freshman campaign. The athletic wing shot just 33% on low volume from deep, but really anything would be an improvement over Rice who shot 32% on a whopping 220+ attempts. (Don’t get me wrong, Rice was excellent, but it’s hard to succeed when you have a player struggling with that volume.)

Rudy Fitzgibbons, Jackson Gammons, and Jerry Higgins will all be in the mix for backcourt minutes as well, but freshman wing Jason Roche is the player to watch. Roche, a 3-star recruit, is a MONEY outside shooter with a lightning quick release. He should find the floor at some point this season. Fitzgibbons is a backup PG who shot 42% from 3 while being plagued by TOs. Gammons and Higgins averaged over 8 PPG against non-DI schools last year but seldom played otherwise.

The Citadel struggled defending the rim last season but 6’9” forward Stephen Clark did his darndest to prevent shots from reaching the hoop. Clark ranked 2nd in the SoCon in block rate last season and should be one of the premier shot blockers in the league once again this year. Brady Spence will be a welcome return after missing time with injury in 2020-21. He started eight games as a sophomore and provides much needed size and rebounding to the lineup. Returning forward Owen Spencer will provide depth up front.

Roche’s fellow freshmen Jackson Price and Brock Wakefield don’t have a clear path to PT, but Price’s athleticism and potential rim protection could help him see pay-dirt as a rookie. Wakefield is a smart PG with good size and shooting ability.

Defense is, quite frankly, always atrocious under Baucom. With the style he plays, it’s not hard to see why. The Citadel has never finished in the KenPom top 300 in adjusted defensive efficiency and last year was no exception. The Bulldogs allowed a ton near the rim and teams essentially took layup lines at times against the high-risk high reward style of play. Post-ups were a source of weakness due to a lack of size, and transition was as well due to the Citadel’s tendency to gamble for steals and traps. Baucom did pull back slightly on the full-court pressure last season and it helped result in his best defensive mark at the school (still terrible). Perhaps he goes one step further this season and plays at a slightly more grounded speed.

Bottom Line: This ain’t your older brother’s Citadel squad. Duggar has himself a talented basketball team capable of making a splash in SoCon play. The Bulldogs upset ETSU, Wofford, Chattanooga, and VMI last season and seem poised to play giant killer again in 2021-22. A top half finish in the league standings is certainly within the realm of possibilities.

9. Samford

Key Returners: Logan Dye, Richardson Maitre, AJ Staton-McCray, Jacob Tryon, Jaron Rillie, Stanley Henderson***, Marcellus Vail
Key Losses: Preston Parks, Myron Gordon, Jalen Dupree, Christian Guess, Triston Chambers
Key Newcomers: Ques Glover (Florida), Konstantin Dotsenko (Tarleton State)***, Cooper Kaifes (Loyola Chicago), Jermaine Marshall (Akron), Wesley Cardet

*** Dotsenko and Henderson are not on the team roster page as of this preview date.

Lineup:

Outlook: When looking at Samford’s record last season, on the surface it would appear year one of “Buckyball” was a disappointment. The Bulldogs limped to a 6-13 overall record and finished 2-9 in SoCon play, good for last place in the league. But digging into the nitty gritty, it’s clear that Bucky McMillan’s first season could actually be considered a success. McMillan inherited a team with some of the highest roster turnover in the country, and SAM was picked to finish 309th by KenPom in the preseason. The Bulldogs roared out to a 5-3 start that included a win at Belmont (and a loss to Alabama A&M) before COVID ran amok and destroyed their momentum. Samford finished 264th in KenPom, which was better than three of Scott Padgett’s six seasons.

Buckyball is the style of play McMillan, now 38 years old, brought with him to Birmingham. It’s an exciting, fast-paced, up-and-down style that emphasizes run-outs, quick shots, and high pressure. Samford ranked 17th in the country in tempo last season (KenPom) and 11th in FGA% in transition (Hoop-Math) and implemented a full-court press at the 2nd highest frequency in the country (Synergy). This style of play can lead to massive swings in results (see Belmont / Alabama A&M) and it’s incredibly fun to watch.

Samford’s offense was the worst in the SoCon last season, but that wasn’t entirely unexpected given the vast inexperience on the roster and the coaching change. Turnovers and shooting were the Bulldogs’ kryptonite, as they featured the worst TO rate in the SoCon and one of the worst 3P% in the country (28% for the year). Samford sells out for offensive rebounds, allowing it to quickly set up in man full-court pressure on makes and misses.

Bucky’s defense is feast or famine. Samford had the 2nd worst defense in the SoCon in the league last year, primarily because once opponents beat the press it was essentially a lay-up line to the hoop. Despite pressing at the 2nd highest rate in the country, SAM ranked just 193rd in TO rate, a poor combination. Samford allowed sky high 3PA rates (nearly half of opponents’ FGA came from outside the arc) and assist rates, also a losing combination. With a year under McMillan under their collective belts, Samford should improve on this end of the floor.

McMillan played a ton of guys last year, partially due to his preferred style of play and partially due to COVID issues. So despite the Bulldogs losing a considerable amount of production, plenty of players with significant on-floor experience return. Logan Dye, AJ Staton-McCray, and Richardson Maitre are the three primary returners and virtual locks for starting spots.

Dye is a gifted post scorer who started expanding his range a bit last season. He was also one of the main reasons Samford ranked 2nd in the SoCon in DR% last season. Maitre is a former FAU transfer who can run point or play off the ball. He ranked 6th in the SoCon in steal rate last season but also posted a monstrous TO rate of his own on the offensive end. Samford fans will hope Maitre can rediscover his outside shot, as his percentage tanked to just 26% a year after shooting 41% with the Owls.

Staton-McCray is McMillan’s star, a SoCon All-Freshman honoree last season and prime candidate to enjoy a breakout sophomore campaign. ASM was inefficient as a FR, but he was also forced into a high-volume, high-usage role as a rookie. He is clearly talented and capable of taking the next step with his efficiency.

Jaron Rillie and Marcellus Vail return to bolster the backcourt depth. Rillie led the SoCon in TS% and eFG% last season, shooting 50% from deep in league play and 78% from 2. Like other guards, Rillie struggled with turnovers, posting a 36.5% TO rate, but he is deadly in a catch-and-shoot role. Vail started six games as a freshman and was a walking turnover. He likely remains a deeper option off the pine with the incoming transfer talent.

Jacob Tryon and Stanley Henderson are the remaining key returners, both frontcourt pieces. Tryon, a former Portland Pilot, gives Samford a delicious combination of size, floor stretching (35% career 3P shooter), and rim protection. Henderson is an undersized paint-bound forward. Tryon likely lines up alongside Dye in the starting frontcourt; Henderson likely assumes a deeper frontcourt role.

McMillan turned to the transfer wire to help fill the holes left by his own outgoing transfers. Florida’s Ques Glover, Tarleton State’s Konstantin Dotsenko, and Loyola’s Cooper Kaifes are the three to watch, and all could see starts this season. Akron’s Jermaine Marshall, a versatile forward, could also see key minutes in McMillan’s rotation.

Glover is a good candidate to take over the PG reins, though he doesn’t really solve the Bulldogs’ turnover issues if his Gator years are any indication. Glover has yet to post an O-rating of over 84 during his career, but he could thrive in a lower league and a system tailor-made to his enviable quickness. Dotsenko, a Russian stretch 4, is steady with the ball and dangerous pick-n-pop threat. He was the Texans’ 2nd leading scorer last season, averaging double-digits in a painfully slow system. Kaifes never got it going last season one year removed from an injury. He shot 46% from deep as a freshman for the Ramblers but just 28% in 2020-21. My money is on him returning to form.

In addition to the promising transfers, McMillan brought in one of the highest rated recruits in Samford history with the signing of Wesley Cardet, a 4-star top 100 wing who received a slew of Power 6 offers. Cardet is aggressive, athletic, and long, and should crack the rotation early and often during his freshman year.

Southern Miss transfer Angel Smith, JUCO transfer Jaden Campbell, and Rutgers transfer Daniel Lobach round out the roster. Smith played just four games in 2019-20 before getting injured: he’s a potential help to Samford’s shooting efforts. Campbell averaged 13.7 PPG on 38.5% 3P shooting for Florida Southwestern. Lobach took a medical redshirt in 2019-20 and pretty much never played for the Knights. He’s a wing with a 7-foot wingspan.

Bottom Line: Samford isn’t crashing the top half of the SoCon this season but rest assured Bucky’s squad is going to be a feisty bunch who can throw a few knockout punches. Look for the Bulldogs to score some head-scratching wins and suffer equally head-scratching losses as they play one of the most exciting styles in college basketball.

10. Western Carolina

Key Returners: Tyler Harris, Travion McCray
Key Losses: Mason Faulkner, Cory Hightower, Xavier Cork, Matt Halvorsen, Sin’Cere McMahon, Ahmir Langlais, Marcus Thomas, Kameron Gibson, Tyler McGhie
Key Newcomers: Nick Robinson (Valparaiso), Cam Bacote (Indiana State), Joe Petrakis (Kansas State), Johan Crafoord (Iona), Vonterius Woolbright (JUCO), Marvin Price (JUCO), Madison Monroe (JUCO), Marlow Gilmore (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: Musical Chairs: Coaches Edition! Mark Prosser left Western Carolina this offseason to replace Pat Kelsey at Winthrop. In his stead comes Justin Gray, a Pat Kelsey assistant the past two years. Gray played at Wake Forest with Chris Paul (I remember watching him, guess I’m old now) under the tutelage of Mark’s dad, the late great Skip Prosser. Gray inherits a roster with only three returning scholarship players from a team that went 4-13 in the SoCon. Expectations are low in Cullowhee – the Catamounts have enjoyed just one winning season in the last five years.

Gray seems enthusiastic about his new position, but he has his work cut out for him. The Cats will be almost entirely reliant on transfers to compete in the always-competitive SoCon. The three holdovers from last season are Tyler Harris, Travion McCray, and Josh Massey. Harris and McCray were both in the portal following Prosser’s departure, but Gray coaxed them back to school. Harris started 20 games last year and seems likely to start at the 4 where his rebounding and length will help make up for his (relative) lack of size. A solid defender and capable slasher on offense, Harris will be one of the Cats’ primary weapons this season. McCray missed the second half of last season, but started nine of the 13 games he did play in. He’ll be in the mix for point guard reps but needs to button down turnover issues that plagued him in 2020. Gray also likely wouldn’t mind McCray rediscovering his outside shot; his 3P% tanked from 37% his freshman year to just 25% last season. Massey adds wing depth and will look to earn more PT in his second season.

Everyone else is a transfer or freshman.

Gray brings in four DI transfers to bolster his roster. Nick Robinson from Valparaiso (and Saint Joe’s) might be the best player on the team this season. He can flat-out score the rock, though he hasn’t been too efficient throughout his four years in college. Indiana State transfer Cam Bacote began his career at UMES before suiting up for the Sycs. His coach Greg Lansing got fired this offseason, so Bacote will hope to get a fresh start at WCU. He’s a skilled combo guard who can handle it and shoot it – starting reps are a very real possibility. In the frontcourt Joe Petrakis (Kansas State) and Jonah Crafoord (Iona) add size. Petrakis was a walk-on for K State last year after spending time in the JUCO ranks; he gives WCU something it severely lacks: pure height. Crafoord barely played for the Gaels last season, but he’s a skilled and athletic forward out of Sweden capable of producing at the DI level.

Gray’s four JUCO transfers could arguably be more impactful than his DI newbies. Vonterius Woolbright and Marvin Price were both All-Americans last season (Woolbright HM, Price 3rd Team) and figure to play major roles for the Cats in 2021-22. Woolbright is a 6’6” do-everything point guard who averaged 17.4 PPG, 8.6 RPG, and 7.7 APG last year – he’s a nightly triple-double threat with his size, strength, and passing ability. Price averaged 12.1 PPG and shot 37% from deep for one of the best junior college programs in the country last season (Salt Lake CC). He’s a strong athlete who plays within himself and can give WCU minutes at the 3 or 4.

Combo guard Madison Monroe (very presidential) began his career at Oakland and started six games for Greg Kampe. Last year in the JUCO ranks, Monroe averaged 14.9 PPG and 5.4 APG. He’ll compete with McCray and Bacote for primary ball handling duties. 6’6” wing Marlow Gilmore is a scary athlete who can put his chin on the rim. He’ll be an asset defensively with his length and athleticism.

Three freshmen also come to town, but it remains to be seen how impactful they’ll be. Marcus Banks has plenty of potential as a shooter, scorer, and point guard. Damion Everett is a versatile wing prospect. KJ Odour is a skinny, raw 6’9” forward with a 7’3” wingspan.

We can speculate as to what type of style Gray will employ in his first head coaching season. If he sticks with the Pat Kelsey approach, we can expect to see tons of running and 3-point gunning from the Cats this season. Kelsey’s teams emphasize getting out in the open floor, getting open 3s, and moving the ball in the halfcourt. His motion offenses have produced three straight top 15 national assist rate finishes. WCU ran a lot under Prosser as well, so this style wouldn’t be a major change from 2020-21. One change that we could see is the Cats’ new offensive rebounding approach – Kelsey liked to crash the glass, but he had the talent and size to simultaneously compete on the boards and stifle transition; it’s unclear if WCU can do that right away.

Defensively we should expect WCU to be a man-to-man squad, as Kelsey never zoned at Winthrop. WCU will look to improve at keeping opponents away from the rim and denying 3PA better than last season. Rebounding should remain a priority under Gray as it was under Prosser.

Bottom Line: The SoCon is highly competitive this season, so it will be difficult for Gray to finish above the bottom three in his first season. He’ll need to bring together a group of players who have zero experience playing with one another, a tall task for any coach, let alone a brand new one residing in a solid conference.