-Matt Cox
Key Returners: Anthony Polite, Malik Osborne, RayQuan Evans, Wyatt Wilkes
Key Losses: Scottie Barnes, M.J. Walker, Balsa Koprivica and RaiQuan Gray
Key Newcomers: Caleb Mills (Houston), Jalen Warley, Matthew Cleveland, Cam’Ron Fletcher (Kentucky), John Butler, Naheem McLeod (JUCO)
Lineup:
Outlook: At the ripe old age of 73, Leonard Hamilton is college basketball’s Benjamin Button. Forget any notion of a farewell tour or clinging to the twilight years of old glory. Hamilton’s too busy upending the competitive balance in the ACC.
The Florida State head honcho doubles as one of the game’s sharpest ‘brand managers’ – that is, a marketer and salesman of the FSU basketball product. Pinned in a league with perennial ‘blue bloods’, Hamilton’s positioned Florida State as the ‘New Blood’.
Translation: A refreshing dose of exuberance and change up from the stuffy old traditions of Duke and North Carolina.
This isn’t just some conniving marketing ploy. The results, both in off-the-floor recruiting and on-the-floor performance, speak for themselves. While the Tobacco Road based powers reckon with untimely regime changes, FSU is primed to cement itself as one of the constants amongst college basketball’s elite programs.
By strengthening recruiting ties to fruitful grassroots pipelines (see Monteverde Academy), Florida State’s become immune to rebuilding. It’s rinse, wash, reload in Tallahassee. That’s how you lose Scottie Barnes, M.J. Walker, Balsa Koprivica and RaiQuan Gray and still wind up in the stratosphere of our 2022 ACC predictions. Walker (the shotmaker) Gray (the swiss army knife), Barnes (the lotto pick) and Koprivica (the renaissance man) comprise what may be the biggest cumulative blow to any roster in the ACC. But the Noles replenished the cupboard with what may be the ACC’s best crop of newcomers.
A pair of 5-star blue-chippers, Jalen Warley and Matthew Cleveland, headline one of the best recruiting classes in the nation – both sit within the top 20-30 overall range in 247sports’ prospect rankings. Cleveland has been a magnet of praise for some of the most trusted recruiting experts in the sport. Mike Gribanov is among those names I hold in the highest regard when it comes to player analysis and projection – when he raves about a guy, I listen:
Gribanov’s not alone. Adam Finklestein called Cleveland the best finisher in the 2021 class. It’s easy to envision him being a terror in transition, as most rookie phenoms who come through Tallahassee are.
Conversely, Warley may not have that head-turning burst of athleticism but he’s another long-limbed weapon at Hamilton’s disposal. He’s touted as a heady point guard with an advanced feel for the game, making him the best option for Hamilton to hand over the offensive keys to.
Warley will slide comfortably into a fully loaded Ferrari with an abundance of offensive riches. Caleb Mills brings his flamethrower jumper from Houston, itching to get back on the hardwood after bum ankles kept him on the shelf for most of the 2021 campaign. This is your friendly reminder that the Seminoles knocked down a league best 40.3% from behind the stripe last year, a clip Hamilton would love to keep afloat, at least in the upper 30s, to retain that offensive balance. Now departed M.J. Walker carried the freight in this department last season (42% on 104 attempts) but Mills can pick up the slack. He’s shorter and streakier than Walker – not to mention the significant wear and tear on both ankles – but he’s a takeover type talent who can get buckets in bunches.
Then there’s Cam'Ron Fletcher. Fletcher’s 4-star pedigree and Kentucky lineage screams impending breakout, but color me skeptical. Regardless, I love this acquisition for Hamilton because it’s all upside with virtually zero downside risk. While immensely talented, Fletcher’s skillset is largely replicable in the other newcomers and incumbents.
Chief among those returners are Anthony Polite and RayQuan Evans. Evans is Mr. Dependable, a fringe full time starter a year ago, but Polite is the super glue that holds it all together. The lanky lefty will be asked to spearhead the ‘Noles transition attack and orchestrate the half-court offense in a more permanent role this season. Polite’s a multi-skilled wing with a basketball IQ wise beyond his years, akin to his former teammate RaiQuan Gray. We witnessed Gray transform his game in the blink of an eye last year, a leap Polite is capable of replicating in a similar context this season.
Saving the best, well biggest, for last, we pivot to the gargantuan frontcourt. For starters, don’t shrug off the loss of Balsa Koprivica. A fixture in the starting lineup all year, the surging 7-footer really came into his own down the stretch. Koprivica’s coordination and fluidity on the offensive end were scary good but he became nearly indispensable on the other side of the ball.
The following chart isolates the on / off splits for the Seminoles’ last seven games. For reference, this coincided with an offensive funk, as FSU dropped three of their last five games entering the NCAA Tournament – during that span, Koprivica was the anchor to a defense that helped partially mitigate those offensive woes:
Worry not. This is where Hamilton’s ogre assembly line comes in. Come on down John Butler (fringe top-50 4-star freshman) and Naheem McLeod (#6 ranked JUCO player), the two newest members of the FSU 7-foot club. Along with returning behemoth Tanor Ngom, Hamilton has three different walls to rotate in and out of the middle.
It’s not rocket science, kids: Elite length begets elite defenses. Since 2017, FSU’s ranked 2nd, 12th, 10th, 1st and 1st in KenPom’s ‘Average Height’ metric. Since then, it’s been a five year block party in Tallahassee:
Malik Osborne rounds out the rest of the core rotation, a logical complement to the 7-foot crew. A bouncy hybrid forward, Osborne’s respectable jumper draws help side defenders away from the restricted area, opening driving lanes for Warley, Cleveland and other rim attackers.
Bottom Line: Leonard Hamilton is still cooking with gas folks. It’s tempting to fixate on all the talent walking out the door but don’t discount what’s still in the chamber for 2022. Hamilton’s annual blueprint is as simple as it is bulletproof: Give me versatile athletes and towering length and I will give you a top-20 team.