-Jim Root
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Alex Morales, R Sr., Wagner
Coach of the Year: Jared Grasso, Bryant
Newcomer of the Year: Tyler Brelsford, So., Bryant
Freshman of the Year: Antoine Jacks, Fairleigh Dickinson
Tier 1
1. Bryant
Key Returners: Peter Kiss, Charles Pride, Chris Childs, Hall Elisias, Luis Hurtado, Erickson Bans
Key Losses: Michael Green (transfer), Nathaniel Stokes (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Tyler Brelsford (George Washington), Greg Calixte (George Mason), Adham Eleeda (NKU), Grant Coleman (Milwaukee), Mike Iuzzolino
Lineup:
Outlook: The electricity is still emanating from Smithfield, Rhode Island, after last year’s Bryant Bulldogs made their mark on the NEC – and the country. Bryant was an early season darling, nearly winning at Syracuse (and prompting a grumpy Jim Boeheim rant) and then taking down UMass in Amherst, all while playing a thrilling, frenetic style. Bryant also covered eight of its first nine games against the spread, emphasizing the way it was blowing past outside expectations.
That season-opening surge was powered by scintillating perimeter shooting, and it did prove to be somewhat unsustainable:
If maintained for the full season, that 42.1% success rate would have easily led the country – surpassing Baylor’s volcanic 41.3%, which helped lift the Bears to their first ever national title. All of the Bulldogs’ best snipers – Peter Kiss, Chris Childs, Charles Pride – return, and a huge amount of the team’s success will be determined by what their true ability is from beyond the arc.
Conversely, opponents could not throw the ball in the ocean, converting a paltry 28.8% from beyond the arc. Contesting perimeter shots is a heavy point of emphasis in assistant Phil Martelli Jr.’s defense (hey, we know that name!), but even so, I fear the regression monster may be lurking in the shadows. The Bulldogs play a ton of zone – over 67% of the time, per Synergy – and that leads to a relatively high volume of triples surrendered. Opponents hitting even an average rate from deep would be particularly harmful.
Ok, let’s set three-point shooting “luck” aside for now. Any way you slice it, this is a stacked NEC roster, one that returns a clear Player of the Year candidate in Kiss and a multitude of complementary weapons. Without Michael Green, the jet-quick point guard who transferred to Robert Morris, Kiss and point forward Luis Hurtado rise into more prominent creation roles, and both should be up to the task. Kiss flirted with a 50/40/90 season (50.4%/42.4%/85.1%), and he proved to be a devastating weapon in Bryant’s transition-heavy attack.
Hurtado, meanwhile, has overcome testicular cancer to become a vital, versatile piece of the Bryant puzzle. Having him facilitate with his height and vision is an incredible luxury:
GW transfer Tyler Brelsford is another option, a capable shooter and savvy playmaker who, though a different kind of player than Green, could comfortably slide into his starting spot. When Green missed the NEC semifinals due to COVID concerns, Jared Grasso handed the keys to Erickson Bans, and the steady freshman racked up 13 points while playing 39 minutes. He might return to the bench this year, but he offers a nice security blanket in the event of injuries or other unforeseen circumstances.
Playing as fast as the Bulldogs do requires multiple ball-handlers, and Pride fills the role of a secondary option perfectly. Like Kiss, he is lethal from deep, and he contributes in basically every area of the game – battles on the offensive glass, is a stout defender, gets to the free throw line, etc. It’s no wonder that on/off numbers display a stark picture of his value:
Childs and Adham Eleeda will primarily be spot up shooters, but when you’re as good as Childs is at that (40% on high volume), that’s all you need to do. Eleeda never found his niche at NKU, but he’s the same guy who buried an outrageous 129 threes in 33 games back in 2018-19, so this may be the perfect fit for him.
Perhaps the thinnest part of Bryant’s roster last year was the frontcourt rotation, where mainstay Hall Elisias dominated as a finisher and shot-blocker but lacked much of a supporting cast. Grasso aggressively addressed that problem in the transfer portal. First, he added a beefier post defender in Greg Calixte, a George Mason import who will be vital against massive front lines like LIU and Mount St. Mary’s. Grasso also nabbed a zone busting floor spacer in Grant Coleman. The 6’7 Milwaukee transfer can invert the floor even more adeptly than Nathaniel Stokes, last year’s stretch big. Considering the volume of zones Bryant sees (4th-most in the country last year), more perimeter threats are never a bad thing.
Bottom Line: Bryant has morphed into something of a mid-major Arkansas in that the coach is nearing “infallible” reputation among fans while bringing in a bevy of transfers to stack the lineup. Considering the on-court results for both Grasso and Eric Musselman, that devotion is well-earned! This year’s Bulldogs have plenty of bite in the backcourt, and the transfer portal infusions add needed depth throughout the roster. If Bryant can avoid the dreaded regression monster on defense, then the breakneck tempo and bombs-away offense could be back in the national spotlight again soon – and maybe even in March.
2. Wagner
Key Returners: Alex Morales, Elijah Ford, Will Martinez, DeLonnie Hunt, Nigel Jackson, Ja’Mier Fletcher
Key Losses: Elijah Allen (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Ashton Miller (Duquesne), Jahbril Price-Noel (Pacific), Raekwon Rogers (D-II), Zaire Williams, Rob Taylor II, Javier Ezquerra Trelles
Lineup:
Outlook: If you quickly wrote off Wagner last season after the Seahawks’ 1-5 (1-4) start to the year, that would be understandable. The Seahawks were coming off their worst season in Bashir Mason’s tenure, so it looked like more of the same was in the cards. Those that stuck to their guns flourished, though: Wagner then won 10 straight games and 12 of its next 13 (covered eight straight and nine of 10), ultimately earning the #1 seed in the NEC Tournament. That event did not go as planned, but Mason clearly has the program back on the right track after the 2019-20 blip.
Getting the wing trio of Will Martinez, Elijah Ford, and Alex Morales – the reigning NEC Player of the Year – back for their super senior seasons is absolutely enormous for a team that ran most of its offense through those three. Morales and Martinez ranked 5th and 9th, respectively, in the conference in assist rate, displaying savvy ball movement and impressive vision, often aided by their size to see over defenses. In a league loaded with zone teams, Morales and Martinez can open up those alignments with their passing:
Morales is also a tremendous scorer, knocking down perimeter shots (36% in league play) and using his spindly frame to knife to the bucket to finish or draw contact. Ford is an even more amped up version of that; he’s basically a power forward in a wing’s body with impressive vertical bounce. He dominates the glass on both ends of the floor and is a matchup nightmare for most NEC foes. His ability to play the interior and hold up against bigger foes unlocks the Wagner offense, which led the league in efficiency in conference play.
A somewhat under-the-radar piece is Nigel Jackson, a fourth super senior whose perimeter prowess from the center spot is instrumental in inverting the court and giving Morales and Ford lanes to slash. Ja’Mier Fletcher started most games as a more conventional big man – and his rebounding is useful, no doubt – but when Jackson shares the court with the Seahawks’ two stars, Wagner becomes a juggernaut:
The offensive numbers tick up even higher if you add Martinez to that group, as well. With some development from young speedster DeLonnie Hunt and the addition of another big scoring wing, Duquesne transfer Ashton Miller, there’s some hope of cutting into that chasm, but there’s no question who the Seahawks’ most important players are.
Like Jackson, Hunt and Miller will be responsible for providing shooting, a glaring weakness for the Seahawks. Despite facing so much zone, Wagner ranked 8th nationally in rim attempt rate (Hoop-Math), indicating the lack of perimeter threats. Hunt did an admirable job of hitting shots as a rookie (35% from deep), and his ability to get out and go is a weapon, as well. Wagner does not run much, but Hunt has the freedom to push if he sees a crease:
Conversely to Hunt’s immediate success, Miller struggled badly as a froshy with the Dukes, and a change of scenery should bolster his confidence. He was a deadly scoring wing in high school at Seton Hall Prep, and being closer to home could help him rediscover that form.
Fellow D-I transfer Jahbril Price-Noel adds more size and skill at 6’7, and if he can shoot like he did as a sophomore (48% from deep, 84% from the stripe), he’ll be a perfect fit in Wagner’s spread scheme. Meanwhile, D-II newcomer Raekwon Rogers will push Fletcher for “conventional” big man minutes; he was a bully and a double-double threat at Henderson State.
Between Morales, Ford, Martinez, Miller, and Price-Noel, Mason has a wealth of length at the 2 through 4 spots, and he will undoubtedly deploy them in a mix of zone pressure looks. According to Synergy, the Seahawks zoned at the 29th-highest rate nationally and pressed at the 26th-highest rate. Morales and Ford are enormously disruptive defensively, and Martinez is not far behind.
The Achilles heel on this end was fouling. The Seahawks’ aggression often got them into trouble (338th in defensive free throw rate). Fletcher was particularly egregious, committing a galling 8.7 fouls per 40 minutes. Foes who are patient, strong with the ball, and accurate from the charity stripe can give Wagner issues, and if/when they beat the press, attacking the rim is typically a smart choice.
Bottom Line: Mason’s Wagner squads have developed a fairly clear identity: aggressive and physical on both ends, attacking the offensive glass and harassing ball-handlers. This particular version has gobs of experience, length, and playmaking, giving the Seahawks a legitimate shot at repeating as NEC regular season champs. If the shooting comes around, Mason might finally see his first NCAA Tournament – a deserved accolade after he has piled up a 96-64 (60.0%) record in the league over his nine-year tenure.
Tier 2
3. Mount St. Mary’s
Key Returners: Nana Opoku, Malik Jefferson, Mezie Offurum, Josh Reaves, Deandre Thomas, Dakota Leffew, Frantisek Barton
Key Losses: Damian Chong Qui (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Jalen Benjamin (UAB), Elijah Elliott (D-II), Jaylin Gibson, Jedy Cordilia, Dola Adebayo
Lineup:
Outlook: The 2020-21 NEC had three teams rank in the top 22 nationally in tempo, with frenetic Bryant leading the way at #6. On the other end of the spectrum were these Mountaineers, who pulled the E-brake all season to the tune of ranking 356th. Dan Englestad’s crawl-ball paid off, though, eventually taking his squad to the NCAA Tournament after knocking off the top two seeds in the NEC Tournament – both on the road. The dream ended quickly after the Mountaineers were dispatched by Texas Southern in the First Four (thanks to a 40-22 second half, sigh), but the blueprint should be the same this year.
Englestad’s bread and butter was a monstrous frontcourt that swallowed up opponents with size and physicality. The Mountaineers start 6’8, 6’9, 6’9 across the forward spots, an anomaly in the smallish NEC, and they ranked 9th nationally in FG% allowed at the rim as a result (24th in overall 2P%). Nana Opoku was the primary enforcer, a bouncy destroyer who can guard multiple positions. Just as importantly, he stayed out of foul trouble, allowing him to play huge minutes (nearly 35 per game). His cohorts Malik Jefferson and Mezie Offurum add further size and clean up the defensive glass when Opoku goes for blocks, and MSM clearly thrived most when all three shared the court:
That group’s mobility allows MSM to still play primarily man-to-man (97% of the time), and the wealth of size was simply too much for NEC foes as the Mountaineers registered the top defense in conference play.
I tip my cap to Englestad for finding a way to make that work offensively with three non-shooters on the floor – Offurum (15-of-67, 22.4%) and Opoku (7-of-34, 20.6%) tried, but those are “bleed from the eyes” kind of numbers. The NEC is a zone-heavy league, and considering their size, the Mountaineers unsurprisingly faced a ton of it. Without much shooting, Offurum’s passing in the high post became vital, and the three-headed monster attacked the offensive glass with fervor. Frantisek Barton showed some stretch four upside and joined that rebounding frenzy, but his minutes will remain limited behind the primary big man trio, as will tantalizing rookies Dola Adebayo and Jedy Cordilia.
When they do see man-to-man, the Mountaineers run one of the most pick-and-roll-heavy attacks in the country featuring one dominant ball-handler. Englestad will need to replace diminutive ironman Damian Chong Qui after the 5’8 floor leader somewhat confusingly transferred to Purdue Fort Wayne this offseason. He barely left the court in consequential games last year – he played every single minute in the Mountaineers’ final six contests – and it’s abundantly clear why (note: this excludes garbage time):
The Mount crumbled into the sea when DCQ sat, so filling that void is pivotal.
To do so, Englestad has two primary options: UAB transfer Jalen Benjamin and D-II import Elijah Elliott. Benjamin is the presumed starter after two solid campaigns in Birmingham, though he did not have to shoulder the kind of playmaking burden that he will in Emmitsburg. Context matters – he played in a more democratic system at UAB – but his assist rate (14.2%) falls well short of DCQ’s (33.2%, 35th nationally). Plus, his pick-and-roll numbers via Synergy do not wow you (21st percentile as a scorer, 40th as a passer). If that becomes an issue, Elliott could emerge as a useful alternative after a highly productive first year at Oklahoma Christian. The snail pace may be an adjustment for him after his prep school background, however: his team scored 100+ in 21 straight games, a national record.
Benjamin has the edge as a shooter, a crucial advantage considering the frontcourt’s lack of spacing. Fortunately, wings Josh Reaves and Deandre Thomas both have smooth outside strokes, and their size (6’4 and 6’5, respectively) makes them ideal fits in Englestad’s defensive scheme. Dakota Leffew and freshman Jaylin Gibson offer possible depth, with Leffew being a spot up gunner and Gibson a slasher, though Englestad may simply opt to keep a short rotation.
Bottom Line: Englestad played a vastly different style at Southern Vermont while racking up a 104-34 record and winning four straight conference titles: heavy pressure, known as “Wreckage.” To his credit, he has willingly adapted to the strength of his large, athletic roster. With Opoku, Jefferson, and Offurum all back, the Mountaineers’ defense should remain excellent, but the upside hinges on Benjamin’s (and, to a lesser extent, Elliott’s) ability to fill the gargantuan void/tiny shoes of Chong Qui at point guard. I’ll keep them in 3rd, but they’ll hear footsteps from Merrimack, LIU, and Sacred Heart.
4. Merrimack
Key Returners: Everybody
Key Losses: Nobody
Key Newcomers: Tavon Jones (NIU)***, Nick Filchner
*** - Jones was no longer on the roster as of publishing date. Unclear what happened to him.
Lineup:
Outlook: Joe Gallo was in an impossible situation after a magical Division I debut. Ineligible for the postseason, Merrimack literally could not surpass its 2020 NEC regular season title, but a 9-9 campaign after losing three senior stalwarts and not playing a game until the NEC schedule kicked off January 7th due to COVID should still be considered a success. The Warriors remain in their idiotic “transition period” for two more seasons, but with every relevant piece back from last year’s squad, Gallo & Co. can once again set their sights high.
Merrimack’s success primarily originates from its frenetic defense, a gloriously chaotic mix of pressure zones that has made the Warriors a nightmare to prepare for and play against. The heavy use of zone and full court pressure is representative of the NEC as a whole – although no one pushes it to the extreme quite like Merrimack:
With ball pressure mavens Mikey Watkins and Malik Edmead and disruptive wings Devin Jensen, Ziggy Reid, and Jordan McKoy all back, handling the rock against Merrimack will remain a basketball root canal. It’s no surprise that the Warriors’ D led the conference in turnover rate and steal rate. NIU transfer Tavon Jones was supposed to add yet another potentially impactful ballhawk, but he is no longer listed on the official roster.
The extended pressure is smart in its execution, forcing opponents into painstakingly long possessions. That maximizes the chance that opponents will make an error against the morphing defense, and the Warriors’ offense feeds off the easy buckets generated on the other end:
Merrimack also features a terrific rim protection trio on the back line of the zone, where Jordan Minor, Reid, and Justin Connolly wreak havoc with their length and timing. Those three can swallow up smaller drivers who foray past the pesky perimeter group, and they helped Merrimack rank 11th nationally in FG% allowed at the basket. Minor and Reid also cleaned the glass proficiently, though without more help from the guards, second shot opportunities will remain a flaw on this end.
Minor is also pivotal to the Warriors’ scoring attack, and not just because of the impressive mobility displayed in the above clip. He’s a savvy cutter and an outstanding one-man show on the offensive boards, generating extra opportunities when the guards’ shots are not falling. He’s also the primary roll man in Gallo’s ball screen scheme.
Watkins and Edmead form an outstanding ball-handling pairing in those pick-and-rolls, ranking in the 82nd and 84th percentile nationally as scorers, per Synergy. That’s especially impressive for rising sophomore Edmead, and the future NEC star’s passing leapt off the screen as well (91st percentile on PnR passing, would have had a top 5 assist rate in the league had he played more).
None of that triumvirate is much of an outside shooter, though, meaning the floor spacing must come from elsewhere. Mykel Derring is the top option there, a sniper who took 110 triples compared to just 28 twos and nine free throws. Jensen and Reid will toss up some attempts, but neither is going to terrify defenses unless they refine their strokes. Little-used James Berry III could unlock some added upside on this end with his stroke, but that’s only if he earns Gallo’s trust on defense. As a result, the Warriors’ half court offense can be a trip to the dentist in its own right when opponents play extra compact.
One additional note that should benefit the Warriors this year: gone are the days of COVID-forced back-to-backs against the same opponent, which often worked to Merrimack’s disadvantage. The Warriors’ zone is most advantageous in how drastically different it is from other schemes, so squaring off against it two days in a row gave opponents an increased comfort level in how to deconstruct it.
Bottom Line: Gallo has built a small-conference defensive juggernaut, and with so many pieces back to execute his unique zone pressure scheme, the Warriors should be competitive on most nights. The lack of shooting drags down the outlook, though, so unless Jensen, Reid, McKoy, and Watkins can make strides from deep, Merrimack likely settles in the middle of the pack again – though I’ll nudge them towards the upper end of that echelon thanks to Gallo + the D.
5. LIU
Key Returners: Ty Flowers, Eral Penn, Alex Rivera, Tre Wood, Kyndall Davis
Key Losses: Jermaine Jackson (transfer), Virshon Cotton (transfer), Jack Ballantyne (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Isaac Kante (Hofstra), Tyree Pickron (Quinnipiac), Noble Crawford (redshirt), Anthony Kabala (redshirt), Andre Washington
Lineup:
Outlook: Derek Kellogg is nothing if not a monolith of consistency! Through four years at LIU, the former UMass boss has racked up a 58-60 record (37-35 in the NEC), and after another 9-9 season, his KenPom rankings through his LIU tenure form quite the pattern, as well: 259, 263, 267, 271. If Kellogg and the Sharks go 16-14 (8-10) to put the five-year tally at 74-74 (45-45) while finishing 275th, he might just be doing some elaborate performance art routine.
LIU was one of the disadvantaged few last year who did not play a single non-conference game, missing the first three weeks of the season and launching straight into NEC play in mid-December. Despite an incredibly talented frontcourt, abominable shooting doomed the Sharks to another .500 season, but beefing up that frontcourt even more has stoked cautious optimism around this version of LIU.
One could make a fairly cogent argument that the Sharks have the three best frontcourt players in the entire conference. In fact, I’ll make it! The only two forwards on the top two NEC all-conference teams last year were Eral Penn (First Team) and Ty Flowers (Second Team), so that’s a pretty solid place to start, and adding former Georgia/Hofstra double-double machine Isaac Kante is like if The Avengers scooped up Superman from the Justice League. I’m honestly not even sure who the other candidates would be: Bryant’s Hall Elisias is dominant defensively, Mount St. Mary’s has a terrific trio, Merrimack’s Jordan Minor is very solid…but I think 1, 2, 3 in some order is here in Brooklyn.
With that trio, LIU should thoroughly dominate the paint on both ends, and Kellogg’s primary directive should be figuring out how to best play all three together. The Flowers/Penn pairing showed little difference from other alignments last year:
Penn is the best rim protector of the bunch, so the above splits make sense (especially defensively). On the other hand, Flowers is the most perimeter-capable, so he probably shifts up to the wing for stretches. He’s a skilled passer and is quite disruptive on the other end, and his length can at least bother quicker wings. The other alternative is to play more zone, stacking the back line of a 2-3 zone or rolling out a gargantuan 1-3-1 with Flowers at the top.
Even if the goal line jumbo package does not quite work out, clocking 80 minutes a game with that trio at the two frontcourt spots is an immediate leg up on the rest of the NEC. All three are fantastic two-way rebounders, and LIU should be even better than its 34th national ranking in O-Reb % – which could be crucial considering the high likelihood of bricky outside shooting.
Who will be taking those shots, you ask? Well, Flowers has a decent stroke, though he has now been sub-30% for two straight years after tickling 40% in 2018-19. Penn has tried to add that to his game with little to show for it thus far. Thus, the unproven backcourt becomes vital: Alex Rivera is a fine complementary player who will hopefully benefit from even more open looks this year, but Tre Wood (1-for-21, 4.8%) and Kyndall Davis (3-for-22, 13.6%) were offensively poor shooters.
New addition Tyree Pickron was not much better (career 25.4% from deep in three years at Quinnipiac), so freshmen Andre Washington and Quion Burns will have every chance to play. Washington in particular should quickly earn minutes, possibly even beating out walking turnover Wood for the starting PG spot. Kellogg has always played at a breakneck pace, which has led to some sloppiness in ball control and shot selection. With such a formidable frontcourt trio and questionable point guard play, that makes for a strange fit.
In the same way, running action through both the high and low post makes a ton of sense with this roster construction. The low post has barely been used in Kellogg’s system, but Kante is a effective presence on the block (78th percentile last year, per Synergy), so it may see a resurgence. The high post will be a necessity, though, as foes zoned LIU more than any other team in the country last season – by a LOT:
That will only increase with the Kante addition. Some of that is due to playing in a zone-heavy conference (see Wagner and Bryant as well). Regardless, Flowers’ passing will be critical, and he acquitted himself well in that position in 2020-21. LIU’s terrifying lack of shooting will rear its ugly head once again, however.
Bottom Line: LIU’s frontcourt is absolutely loaded, no debate there. The backcourt has copious question marks, though, both in terms of creation and shot-making. If the talented forwards cannot get the ball in prime positions, then their production and efficiency will lag behind their abilities (unless they just play volleyball on the glass). The Sharks have a high ceiling if the guards progress, and the floor should be fairly stable considering Kellogg’s history and the Penn/Flowers/Kante triumvirate, but I’m bearish on the backcourt, which keeps LIU in the middle of the pack.
6. Sacred Heart
Key Returners: Tyler Thomas, Aaron Clarke, Alex Watson, Cantavio Dutreil, Mike Sixsmith, Matas Spokas, Bryce Johnson, Zach Pfaffenberger (injury), Nico Galette
Key Losses: Zip, zero, nada
Key Newcomers: Tanner Thomas, Dom Mello, Najee Coursey
Lineup:
Outlook: When the NEC Tournament was squeezed down to four teams due to COVID concerns, few expected Sacred Heart – picked 10th in the league preseason coaches’ poll – to even flirt with inclusion. But Anthony Latina’s team exceeded all expectations, finishing T-3rd in the regular season en route to that postseason appearance.
Apologies in advance though, Pioneer faithful – I have to dump a little cold water on that finish. A few facts about the 2020-21 squad:
Sacred Heart finished 9th of 10 NEC teams in overall KenPom rank, with the defense coming in at a nauseating 348th nationally. At BartTorvik, SHU edged St. Francis (PA) for 8th in the NEC.
Thanks to COVID scheduling issues, the Pioneers avoided Bryant in the regular season. They lost to a depleted version of the Bulldogs by 30 in the NEC semifinals.
Only six of the Pioneers’ games were decided by single digits. They went 5-1 in those games. Their average margin of defeat: 18.1 points per game (and that includes only one non-conference game). Related: Sacred Heart finished 6th in KenPom’s “luck” statistic.
Perhaps more than any other team, Sacred Heart thrived on the “back-to-back” COVID scheduling, going 6-1 in second legs. Latina proved to be a master adjuster, but the schedule reverts to normal this year. For gambling context, SHU went 6-1 ATS with a +8.8 cover margin in those games, 4-7 in all other contests.
By basically any measure, SHU vastly overperformed expectations, raising some “beware of regression” alarms entering 2021-22.
On the bright side, Latina returns basically everyone from that exceedingly young team (314th in experience, per KenPom). The Pioneers can build on last year’s surprising performance, particularly via the dynamic duo of Tyler Thomas and Aaron Clarke, the two leading scorers and facilitators of Latina’s perimeter-based attack.
Thomas exploded last year after an acceptable but unremarkable freshman campaign, upping his scoring average from 5.6 PPG to 19.1 en route to seizing the NEC’s Most Improved Player Award and earning Second Team All-Conference honors. He’s a multi-level scoring threat, but he’s at his most aggressive from beyond the arc, where he launched over eight triples a game. If you lose him, he will punish you:
His development is certainly not complete: he hit just 33.1% from deep, dragging his overall FG% below 40%, and he only narrowly had more assists (50) than turnovers (47). Still, he’s a major scoring threat and a prime candidate to swipe the lone available First Team All-Conference slot (four of the five honorees return).
Clarke had similar issues, particularly as a shooter (25.8% from deep). He’s a heady playmaker, though, and he excels at getting to the rim and drawing contact. He finished 2nd in the NEC in free throw rate, allowing him to show off his 80%+ free throw stroke.
To balance the relative inefficiencies of those two, Latina has a hyper-efficient rising sophomore role player in Mikey Sixsmith. He led the entire country in effective field goal percentage (eFG%) thanks to his ludicrous 54.2% conversion rate from downtown, and though he may stay in a low-usage role for now, he’ll be a star in the league as soon as he gets more opportunities. Alex Watson is the fourth guard in Latina’s four-guard lineups, a terrific role player whose on/off value belies his meager box score stats (via Hoop Lens):
For additional depth behind that foursome, sophomore Quest Harris and freshman Dom Mello will battle for minutes, with Mello likely possessing the higher upside.
Playing those small lineups moves Matas Spokas, a promising stretch four, to the bench, exacerbating the Pioneers’ already-glaring size issues (333rd in KenPom’s average height). Tyler Thomas’ younger and bigger brother, Tanner Thomas, is an intriguing option that could allow Latina to have the best of both worlds: size and skill.
However Latina chooses to deploy his lineups, he will need to find an antidote to the Pioneers’ primary debilitating defensive issue: a total inability to secure rebounds. Latina’s conservative schemes never force turnovers, but the decline on the glass is hugely concerning:
The center platoon of Cantavio Dutreil and Bryce Johnson does its part – Dutreil ranked 8th nationally in defensive rebound rate, and Johnson was not far behind at 53rd – but the other four players on the court made little effort to help out. Dutreil and Johnson were also tremendously active on the offensive glass (Dutreil was 3rd in rate on that end!), and having two similar players allows Latina to not worry about foul issues from either one. Nico Galette earned some minutes as a freshman and has higher upside offensively, but he’ll have to beat out a healthy Zach Pfaffenberger (torn Achilles last year) for whatever minutes scraps Dutreil and Johnson leave.
Bottom Line: Returning everyone from a top four squad should unquestionably breed optimism in Fairfield, but the skeptic in me is highly concerned about many of the peripheral numbers and circumstances surrounding SHU’s 2020-21 results. Thomas and Clarke form a star duo, but Latina and the Pioneers desperately find ways to make serious defensive progress to avoid a disappointing encore.
7. St. Francis (PA)
Key Returners: Ramiir Dixon-Conover, Ronell Giles, Maxwell Land, Mark Flagg, Myles Thompson, Marlon Hargis, Josh Cohen, Zahree Harrison, Tyler Stewart
Key Losses: Bryce Laskey (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Nope
Lineup:
Outlook: When Rob Krimmel arrived in Loretto, the Red Flash were a mostly moribund outfit that had not cracked KenPom’s top 250 this millennium. They had one NCAA Tournament appearance and one regular season title (both in 1991), and in the five years leading up to his appointment, SFU had an average KenPom ranking of 310th. In the time since, Krimmel has clearly elevated the program, winning a title in 2019 and earning four finishes inside that top 250:
You might note, though, that 2021 was the worst result for the Red Flash since he got the program going. Fortunately, that should largely be a one-year blip, as Krimmel’s squad returns nearly everyone from a young team (294th nationally in experience), including star lead guard Ramiir Dixon-Conover.
Any discussion about this SFU team has to start with RDC, the fulcrum of the offense and a demon of an on-ball defender. He elevated his game while taking on a massive role, ranking 4th in the NEC in both usage and assist rate. With him on the court, the Red Flash were a middling NEC team; without him, they melted into a puddle of awful on both ends:
Krimmel uses a relatively balanced system, but most of the ball screen looks rely on RDC to create some sort of advantage and either score himself or force defenses to rotate. Thanks to RDC using his extra COVID year, Zahree Harrison gets another campaign as his understudy, and that’s rather fortunate as he has a long way to go to being a positive contributor on offense (12% from deep, turnover issues). Ronell Giles is a capable secondary ball-handler and scorer, but he struggles when asked to do too much – per Hoop-Explorer, he had a 106.0 O-Rtg when playing alongside RDC, but that plunged to 73.0 when RDC sat.
The other alternative is to play through a second super senior, thin big man Mark Flagg. Krimmel will let him facilitate from the top of the key in motion sets, enabling RDC and Giles to receive the ball on the move. He and Josh Cohen are also terrific offensive rebounders, but they do not offer much at all in the way of interior scoring unless set up by the perimeter players. They also need to hold up significantly better on the defensive end, as SFU ranked 337th nationally in post up defense PPP (Synergy). Interior attackers like Wagner’s Elijah Ford, Bryant’s Greg Calixte, and all of the LIU and Mount St. Mary’s frontcourts will be wrecking balls against this soft interior defense.
Added shooting/spacing around the primary action would be a welcome bonus, and Tyler Stewart’s return should be a welcome boost. He was off to a torrid start from beyond the arc as a stretch four (41.2%) before getting hurt. He would be a stretchier option behind Myles Thompson, a stout forward who offers some positional flexibility and effective slashing. Of course, Marlon Hargis could end up seizing that role for himself, an athletic ‘tweener who impressed after becoming eligible following a transfer from Holy Cross.
The final key piece to the offensive puzzle is Maxwell Land, a lights-out lefty who missed the final five games of the year with injury. The Cincinnati native has the looks of a future all-conference candidate, though like most freshmen, his decision-making has a long way to go (16 assists, 35 turnovers). Luke Ruggery bringing any additional perimeter pop would be a bonus.
The Red Flash’s defense didn’t do them any favors last year, and Krimmel’s efforts to work in a zone defense were no more than changeups meant to distract from a shaky man-to-man. The SFU perimeter defenders were beaten far too easily off the bounce, and opponents lived at the rim as a result. Per Hoop-Math, foes took 43.0% of their shots there, one of the 30 highest rates in the country. Though Flagg has some length to him, he is far from an intimidator. Jeriah Coleman has tantalizing upside as a rim protector, but he’s likely still a good distance away from warranting major minutes.
Bottom Line: SFU flashed its upside early last year, winning at Pittsburgh on opening night and knocking off what was a juggernaut Bryant team in mid-January. Consistency should come with added experience, and better health should be in order: only Flagg played in all 22 games as nagging injuries plagued the roster. With RDC back to run the show and spread the ball around, the Red Flash should emerge from last year’s depth of despair, but how high the climb is depends on whether Land and Giles can make significant leaps in year two.
Tier 3
8. Fairleigh Dickinson
Key Returners: Brandon Rush, Joe Munden, John “Mikey” Square, Pierre Olivier-Racine, Devon Dunn (opt-out)
Key Losses: Jahlil Jenkins (transfer), Elyjah Williams (transfer), Callum Baker (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Antoine Jacks, Ibrahim Wattara, Oscar Berry, Ray Ford Jr., Ansley Almonor, Anquan Hill, Sebastien Lamaute
Lineup:
Outlook: With talented inside-out senior bookends in Jahlil Jenkins and Elyjah Williams plus a bevy of young talent, Fairleigh Dickinson looked to be in for a big year last season. The Knights were selected first in the NEC’s preseason coaches poll and by 3MW, indicating the hype around this squad a year ago. Unfortunately, two key wing scorers (Xzavier Malone-Key and Devon Dunn) opted out, and though the offense still hummed (2nd in the league during NEC play), the Knights fell far short of those lofty expectations.
The problem was and will be stopping people in the paint, essentially a non-starter under Herenda. FDU has ranked 300th and 319th in 2P% the past two seasons, and stout anchor Williams returned to hometown Evanston to play his bonus year at Northwestern. Pier-Olivier Racine actually brings some rim protection after earning key minutes as a freshman, and the Canadian forward has some intriguing skills on the other end as well. Joe Munden and John “Mikey” Square will man the four spot in Greg Herenda’s frequent smallball lineups, though he may hope to play some conventional two-big looks with Daniel Rodriguez or one of freshmen Ansley Almonor or Anquan Hill.
Square is particularly important because of his defensive versatility. He was basically the only guy on the roster that could guard multiple positions, and that showed up glaringly in the on/off splits:
Herenda added a similarly fungible piece in Ibrahim Wattara, and if he can crack the rotation immediately, it gives Herenda some real optionality in his lineups. That could also allow Herenda to play more man-to-man.
Because the roster set up well for smallball last season, Herenda’s already-frequent use of zone looks nearly doubled, from 21.1% in 2019-20 to 41.1% last year (Synergy). Troublingly, those zones had no ability to keep foes away from the rim, with the Knights allowing 43.4% of attempts to come from that range – 15th-most in the country, per HoopMath. The zones also exacerbate the Knights’ inability to secure defensive rebounds, an Achilles heel of all Herenda squads. In his eight-year tenure, FDU has never ranked better than 318th in defensive rebound rate, an alarming trend as FDU loses its best rebounder in Williams.
All of this talk about a defense whose ceiling is still probably just “garden-variety bad” is distracting from where the Knights’ true upside lurks: the offensive end, particularly in the backcourt. Brandon Rush is an all-conference caliber scorer, an inside-out weapon capable of getting his own shot or punishing defenses that dare rotate away from him. Munden is another promising perimeter piece, and getting a sniper like Dunn back from his opt-out campaign will only further open up the court.
Replacing Jenkins as the primary ball-handler and initiator is a concern, though. Freshman Antoine Jacks is the only “true” point guard on the roster, so Munden, Rush, and two other rookies, Ray Ford and Sebastian Lamaute, may be pressed into duty at times. Jacks is an enticing package of competitiveness and unselfishness, but as we so often repeat, frosh point guards almost always have finishing and ball control warts.
Herenda also frequently ran action through Williams, a skilled passer from the high or low post, and that kind of alternative seems like an obvious pressure relief for the young-ish backcourt. Racine did not get much of a chance to pass last year, but he’s not hopeless:
Perhaps Square or Wattara can emerge into playmakers from the wing/PF spots, as well. At the very least, Square is one of the most active and tenacious offensive rebounders in the league, and he should frequently earn second shot opportunities for an offense that will need to outscore opponents.
Bottom Line: Throughout his time at FDU, Herenda’s defenses have been consistently “Herendous.” These shortcomings have frequently undermined impressive offenses (case in point: last year). Just looking at the last six years, the imbalance is clear:
This season looks like more of the same. Even with more ball pressure from Jacks and added versatility via more minutes for Square and possibly Wattara, the Knights will still probably get demolished at the rim and on the glass. Rush, Dunn, and Munden are all deadly wing scorers, but the FDU outlook is capped by youth and defensive deficiencies.
9. St. Francis (Brooklyn)
Key Returners: Rob Higgins, Vuk Stevanic, Trey Quartlebaum, Larry Moreno
Key Losses: Chauncey Hawkins (transfer), Travis Atson, Unique McLean, David Muenkat (transfer), Yaradyah Evans
Key Newcomers: Michael Cubbage (Marist), Patrick Emilien (Western Michigan), Jack Hemphill (Boston U), Tedrick Wilcox (D-II), Bahaide Haidara (George Mason), Kasper Suurorg
Lineup:
Outlook: Last year felt like a big one for Glenn Braica and St. Francis. The Terriers had a formidable backcourt filled with experience, but a middling 9-9 finish (and missing the condensed NEC Tournament via tiebreaker) continued a five-year trend of mediocrity (or worse) in Brooklyn. Braica had a tremendous run to start the 2010’s, but an NEC record of 37-53 over the past five has allowed other programs to pass SFC by.
Even worse, the Terriers suffered a cruel twist of fate in September – and it was served up by one of their own. Star PG Chauncey Hawkins entered the portal on 9/13, robbing SFC of its best playmaker and a potent shooter. Leaving at the 11th hour put a knife in the Terriers’ back, and Hawkins twisted it by opting to enroll at in-conference foe Bryant (though he will not play until 2022-23).
Braica must now adjust his approach without his fifth-year floor leader, but his first order of business is finding some shred of competence on the defensive end. SFC ranked 347th in KenPom’s AdjDE last year, by far the worst ranking of his tenure, so turning over a large portion of the roster might actually be a benefit. Per Bart Torvik, the Terriers return the lowest share of minutes in the entire NEC, and a sizable crop of transfers will be tasked with repairing a severely flawed unit.
Michael Cubbage will be a vital part of any resurgence, as his length and background (played for a D guru in John Dunne) should have an immediate impact on the wing. SFC rolled out a backcourt rotation of 5’8, 6’1, 6’2, 6’0, 6’2 last year, contributing heavily to a 345th national ranking in KenPom’s average height, so adding Cubbage’s size is huge. Braica mixed in quite a bit more zone than he has recently as a result:
The transfer class also includes some versatile size in 6’7 Patrick Emilien, 6’6 Tedrick Wilcox, and 6’8 Bahaide Haidara, giving Braica significantly more optionality in his lineup choices. Still, it will fall most heavily on the guards – Larry Moreno, Rob Higgins, Trey Quartlebaum, Cubbage – to keep opponents in front on the perimeter. Per Hoop-Math, SFC surrendered a rim attempt rate of 47.7%, the second-highest in the entire country. Some of that is scheme, as Braica wants to run foes off the three-point line, but it’s also due to matador perimeter defense (and the lack of an intimidator inside).
On that last note: Vuk Stevanic and Jack Hemphill will most likely platoon at center, and once again that will not strike fear into opposing drivers. Both players are highly skilled offensively to the point that Braica wants to play through them at times to weaponize their passing, but neither guy is a shot-blocker. Elijah Hardison oozes rim protection potential, but he’s probably not quite ready for big minutes.
It’s also fair to note that incredibly hot shooting hurt SFC quite a bit. Opponents shot 38.1% from deep and 73.9% from the free throw line, ranking the Terriers’ defense 329th and 298th nationally. The 3P number was the worst of Braica’s 11-year tenure and cannot possibly stay that high (especially with added perimeter size), and the FT number is almost completely random, so expect the defense to improve through sheer regression.
With Hawkins, Travis Atson, and Unique McLean as the primary weapons, SFC’s offense was actually quite decent, but Braica is largely at square one without them. Moreno and Higgins will take over as primary ball-handlers, and the Terriers will definitely ask those two to make plays in ball screens. Hemphill adds a pick-and-pop option as a stretch five, possibly loosening up the defense, with Cubbage and the skilled Emilien happy to take advantage of any openings. SFC will also see a ton of zone in the NEC, so having smart playmakers like Stevanic, Hemphill, and Emilien in the frontcourt will be beneficial.
Bottom Line: The Terriers have some adjustments to make after Hawkins departed, but with an infusion of experience and multi-positional size, perhaps the defense will ascend from the pits of hell. The offense almost inevitably goes the other way without the core of Hawkins, Atson, and McLean, though, so Braica will have to quickly fold the newcomers into his attack to avoid a major backslide on that end. The roster changes widen the range of outcomes for the Terriers, but unfortunately, that includes some low-end scenarios if the pieces don’t click.
Tier 4
10. Central Connecticut St.
Key Returners: Nigel Scantlebury, Tre Mitchell, Ian Krishnan, Zach Newkirk, Stephane Ayangma
Key Losses: Greg Outlaw (transfer), Karrington Wallace (transfer), Xavier Wilson (transfer), Myles Baker (transfer), Jamir Reed (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Hegel Augustin (D-II), Andre Snoddy, Jayden Brown, Davonte Sweatman, Trenton McLaughlin, Abdul Momoh, Arian Dehnavy
Lineup:
Outlook: Let’s hit the reset button, shall we?
The Donyell Marshall era is over, and with it a truly dire period of CCSU basketball. The Blue Devils tallied an abominable 24-66 NEC record (26.7%) on Marshall’s watch, cratering in both the win column and analytical rankings. The hopes of hiring a former NBA star flamed out miserably, and though it wasn’t quite as bad as Portland and Terry Porter, that strategy failed from coast to coast.
To inject some new life in New Britain, the administration hired Patrick Sellers, a well-traveled alum and longtime assistant – one who cynics might tell you that CCSU should have hired five years ago. He has rarely stayed in one place for too long:
That journey (as far as China!) has allowed him to work under a multitude of bosses — Jim Calhoun, Joe Mihalich, Greg McDermott, Jay Young, etc.— giving him a wealth of experience and a bevy of influences as he looks to construct his own style.
He’s pitching a fever dream of a vision: McDermott’s offense coupled with Young’s defensive philosophy and Sellers’ own tenacity (he won Defensive Player of the Year back in 1991). That’s fantasy land stuff, but finishing inside KenPom’s top 300 on either end of the court is a more attainable goal. The Blue Devils have only accomplished that once since 2014, when the 2018 team finished 296th on defense. Hooray!
Any hope of playing even remotely similar to McDermott’s beautiful offenses lies with the backcourt, where Sellers at least takes over a group of veterans. Nigel Scantlebury is the resident creator, a smart passer and incisive driver who mostly came off the bench but still ranked 2nd in the NEC in assist rate. If Sellers opts to push in transition, the ball will be in Scantlebury’s hands. Davonte Sweatman looks like a perfect bolt of lightning off the bench, a 5’8 freshman with impressive bounce, and Sellers will groom him as the point guard of the future.
Whoever mans the point will be flanked by two of Ian Krishnan, non-Texas Tre Mitchell, Zach Newkirk, or D-II grad transfer Hegel Augustin. Mitchell is the best shooter of the bunch, almost assuring him heavy minutes, while Newkirk and Krishnan are steady veterans. Krishnan has flashed legitimate upside in the past, but periodic absences from the lineup have stunted his growth. Augustin was mega-productive at a lower level, and he could end up surprising as a double-digit scorer if he quickly adapts to the NEC.
The roster has far less experience in the frontcourt, where Stephane Ayangma and a host of freshmen will be tasked with providing finishing, rebounding, and excessive hustle. A super senior, Ayangma checks those boxes, but he’s undersized on the defensive end. Of the rookies, Jayden Brown was the most accomplished high schooler, while Abdul Momoh is the rawest but has the highest ceiling, and Arian Dehnavi has the most size to pair with Ayangma. Momoh’s shot-blocking is mostly unique among those options, so Sellers may toss him straight into the deep end.
To play his preferred defensive style, Sellers will need versatility, meaning Andre Snoddy and Trenton McLaughlin should get immediate minutes (and one may even start). Banking on freshmen to be the foundation on D is a dicey proposition, though, even considering their considerable potential.
Bottom Line: Sellers is basically a janitor walking into a cafeteria after a calamitous food fight, with his first task being simply to clean up the mess left behind. CCSU lacked any discernible identity under Marshall, and Sellers needs to be careful about throwing too much at his young team early on. He has some decisions to make in terms of style and tempo, and the roster mix is strange (six seniors, seven freshmen). No one should expect a quick turnaround. Instead, the goals should be finding a couple future lineup fixtures among the youngsters and figuring out exactly how he wants to play.