Ky McKeon

Preseason Predictions

Player of the Year: Javante McCoy, Sr., Boston University
Coach of the Year: Matt Langel, Colgate
Newcomer of the Year: Ian Motta, Fr., Bucknell
Freshman of the Year: Ian Motta, Fr., Bucknell

Tier 1

1. Colgate

Key Returners: Tucker Richardson, Nelly Cummings, Keegan Records, Ryan Moffatt, Jack Ferguson, Jeff Woodward, Sam Thomson, Oliver Lynch-Daniels
Key Losses: Jordan Burns, David Maynard
Key Newcomers: Nicolas Louis-Jacques

Lineup:

Outlook: Matt Langel has surely made his mentor, Fran Dunphy, proud. After playing college ball at Penn for Dunphy and serving on his staff at Penn and Temple for nine years, Langel got the opportunity to run his own program at Colgate. It took some time, but Langel has turned Colgate into a well-oiled machine and the premier program in the Patriot. The Raiders are 38-10 in the league with two NCAA Tournament appearances over the last three seasons.

Due to wonky scheduling and wins by 40+ over Army, Holy Cross, and Boston U, Colgate ranked 9th in the NET last season, which a) was funny and b) showed the flaws in the system if a pandemic ever hit the sport. Colgate won’t be a top ten NET team this season, but it should be one of the better mid-majors in the country for a 4th straight year. Jordan Burns, last year’s Patriot League POY, is gone, but nearly everyone else is back, making this a dangerous squad and the conference crown favorites.

Surprisingly, Colgate didn’t suffer offensively when Burns sat last season. Per Hoop-Explorer and HoopLens, the Raiders’ offensive efficiency was essentially identical when their superstar was on and off the floor. This was primarily due to the fact Colgate was one of the best shooting teams in the country in ’20-21. The Raiders ranked 3rd nationally in 3P% (just over 40%) and led the Patriot in that stat as well as TO rate and 2P%. Per Synergy, Colgate was the best spot-up team in the country, scoring a blistering 1.174 PPP on that play type.

Despite the on/off numbers, Burns was obviously a large part of Colgate’s offensive success, especially his ability to create, so his departure is still a concern. Langel needs one of his flame-throwing guards to step up and act as a creator in his uptempo offense. “Point guard” play will be split among all four of the primary guards in the rotation. Nelly Cummings, Tucker Richardson, Jack Ferguson, and Oliver Lynch-Daniels can all handle and protect the ball in addition to shoot it. But can any of them create off the bounce? The answer is a resounding YES.

Cummings made the Patriot’s 2nd Team All-Conference team last season and is less of a drop-off from Burns than most realize. Per Synergy, Cummings outperformed Burns from a PPP perspective in both ball screens and isolation situations. The 6’0” guard is certainly quick enough to knife through the defense, and he’s never been *just* a catch-and-shoot threat in Langel’s offense. Per Hoop-Math, 25% of Cummings’s made 3-pointers last season were unassisted.

Richardson, a 3rd Team All-Patriot performer last year, isn’t nearly as quick as Cummings, but he’s a do-everything wing can shoot, handle the ball, rebound, and defend. He ranked 6th in the Patriot last season in assist rate and shot over 36% from deep.

Ferguson was a member of the prestigious 50/50/90 club last season and ranked 4th in the nation in offensive rating thanks to a 50.7% 3P clip. He led the league in both 3P% and TO rate and was automatic if given any space. Ferguson will move into the starting five this season and continue to be one of the most dangerous outside threats in the land. Lynch-Daniels, a former Houston Baptist transfer, will see more run this season as a plug for any of the three guard spots. Like everyone else in the Colgate backcourt, OLD is an elite shooter and a capable ball handler.

Colgate’s offensive competency isn’t limited to its backcourt, and that’s what made them especially dangerous in 2020-21. The Raiders shot and made a lot of outside looks last season, but they also ranked 6th nationally in FGA% near the rim, per Hoop-Math. Keegan Records shined in a starting role last season, ranking 2nd in the league in O-rating, 3rd in OR%, 7th in DR%, and 5th in block rate. He gives the Raiders a true low-post scoring threat and has range out to about 18 feet. His backup, Jeff Woodward, was a surprise weapon off the bench and made the Patriot All-Rookie squad. Like Records, Woodward is an excellent finisher, rebounder, and rim protector, and he offers a little more girth than his frontcourt counterpart. Colgate will always have a very good 5-man on the floor with either Records or Woodward, and Langel might even experiment with playing the pair together in spurts this season.

Ryan Moffatt will start at the 4, reprising the role he assumed last season. Moffatt is a floor spacer who also led the league in 2P%; he doesn’t make mistakes and fills his niche with perfection.

Sam Thomson will see time in a reserve role up front, and so could Malcolm Bailey, an athletic forward who has yet to play college basketball due to injuries.

In the backcourt, Alex Capitano, Zach Light, Pearson Parker, and freshman Nicolas Louis-Jacques round out the depth chart. Given Colgate’s outstanding top four, it’s unlikely any of these guys see much hardwood in ’21-22.

Colgate’s potent offense gets all the press, but its defense was tops in the Patriot last season as well. The Raiders force teams to play in isolation and have elite frontcourt size (for the Patriot) to muddy up the paint. However, last season’s success came with an asterisk. Opposing teams shot just 26.4% from 3 against Colgate, the lowest mark in the country. Nine times out of ten that kind of 3P defense success is due to a heavy dose of luck, and that’s likely the case with Colgate. The Raiders do not have an abundance of length on the perimeter, nor do they emphasize running opponents off the arc. The two seasons prior to ’20-21, Colgate ranked 78th and 145th in 3P% defense (and hovered around 300th nationally in Langel’s previous seven seasons). So, while Colgate’s defense should be good for the Patriot, don’t expect them to be emphatically #1 in this end of the floor in ’21-22.

Bottom Line: The Jordan Burns departure might be overshadowing the ability of this team in 2021-22. Rest assured, Colgate is still very, very good and could be as dominant in the Patriot as it was last season. The Raiders will still be one of the best outside shooting teams in the country, they have two excellent centers to play through and rely on defensively, and they have a burgeoning star in Cummings waiting to breakout.

Tier 2

2. Boston

Key Returners: Javante McCoy, Walter Whyte, Sukhmail Mathon, Jonas Harper, Ethan Brittain-Watts, Daman Tate, Fletcher Tynen, Garrett Pascoe
Key Losses: Jack Hemphill, Andrew Petcash
Key Newcomers: Nevin Zink (USC Upstate), Malcolm Chimezie

Lineup:

Outlook: Massive disappointment. That sums up BU’s 2020-21 season. Coming off a year in which they won the Patriot League conference tournament championship and boasting the 21st highest minutes continuity in the country, many expected the Terriers to challenge Colgate for the 2021 regular season title. They crapped the bed instead.

Boston finished just 6-10 in the Patriot, and before you say “they played Colgate four times” they also split a six-game series with Holy Cross, so, yeah, it was a disappointing year. Unbalanced schedules aside, BU was awful in the place it should’ve been good: its own home court. The Terriers went just 2-6 at home last season (1-6 in the regular season) versus 5-5 on the road. Was it the fact they had to “wear” masks on their home floor? We may never know.

(yes, this picture is not on their home floor)

Joe Jones and his squad get a do-over this season. Nearly everyone is back (again) including all five starters, making BU a hot pick to win the Patriot. To capture a championship this year, the Terriers must improve on defense, where they ranked as the worst in the league on an adjusted efficiency basis (yeah, Colgate 4x, but also Holy Cross 6x). A lack of “resistance” killed the Terriers last season. BU ranked 342nd in FGA% near the rim (that’s bad) and ranked dead last in the Patriot at forcing turnovers. Opponents could simply do what they wanted on this end of the floor.

The fact that BU was so bad defensively and yet had two Patriot All-Defense selections is counterintuitive, but it should give BU fans hope their squad can turn things around this year. Center Sukhmail Mathon is back to man the middle after an All-Defense campaign. He’s an excellent rebounder and can protect the rim. On the other side of the ball, Mathon has ranked in the top three of the Patriot in OR% in each of the past two seasons (KenPom), and he scored in the 89th percentile on post-ups last year (Synergy). In the backcourt, Jonas Harper won All-Defense honors after playing bulldog on-ball defense. He’s back to fill the “3-and-D” role in the starting lineup. Harper is a career 38% shooter from deep.

Offense is usually the stronger side of the ball for Boston under Jones. The Terriers were the Patriot’s 4th best offense last season employing a balanced attack that used just about every play type in the book in equal manner. The offensive glass is key for BU, as is playing through the post. But their best offensive options lie on the wings.

All-conference wings Javante McCoy (2nd Team) and Walter Whyte (3rd Team) are back to lead the Terrier charge. McCoy is a stud, a 6’5” guard who can play point or be a scoring threat on the wing. His 3P% has tanked the past two seasons from stellar FR and SO marks (correlated with higher usage), but his talent is undeniable.

McCoy is deadly creating and scoring off ball screens and one of the best three-level scorers in the league.

Whyte isn’t a high school teacher turned meth cooker (that’s Walter *White*), but he is an excellent 3/4 tweener who can guard multiple spots, rebound, and attack the rim. His athleticism gives him an advantage in a league where the athleticism is, shall we say, below average from a national perspective.

When McCoy isn’t running point, it’ll usually be Ethan Brittain-Watts, a solid ball handler who ranked 2nd in the Patriot and 12th in the country in 3P% last season. Because of his deadeye stroke, EBW might actually be better off the ball, allowing McCoy to create more with his length.

Daman Tate and Fletcher Tynen both have starting experience. Tate is a wing who can shoot and score off the bounce. He burst on the scene last year in the first game of the season, scoring 26 points and grabbing 10 rebounds in just 24 minutes of action. Tynen will provide forward depth and is a good inside-out scorer. Garrett Pascoe, another veteran with starting experience, will provide backup at PG.

USC Upstate transfer Nevin Zink will almost certainly play a role in the rotation this season. He was a two-year starter at Upstate, is a good rebounder and rim deterrer. Like Mathon, Zink is a skilled post scorer and ranked 2nd in the Big South in FT rate last season. Freshman forward Malcolm Chimezie, a strong and athletic 4-man, could also play right away.

Bottom Line: Boston has the experience and the talent to win the Patriot this season, but this is essentially the same team that went 6-10 in the Patriot last season. Hopefully, we can just throw out last year’s COVID-riddled season and start anew on the Terriers. They deserve a strong season after missing out on the canceled NCAA Tournament in 2020.

3. Navy

Key Returners: John Carter, Greg Summers, Patrick Dorsey, Richard Njoku, Tyler Nelson, Daniel Deaver, Austin Inge, Jaylen Walker, Sean Yoder
Key Losses: Cam Davis
Key Newcomers: Your guess is as good as mine…

Lineup:

Outlook: In his 10th season as head coach of the Naval Academy, Ed DeChellis captured the Patriot League Coach of the Year award. His Midshipmen went an impressive 12-1 in the Patriot and earned the 1-seed in the conference tournament. Of course, we must point out the unbalanced scheduling in the league. Navy never had to play Colgate (or even Lafayette or Boston, for that matter). Instead, the Midshipmen took down Bucknell twice, American four times, Loyola MD thrice, Lehigh twice, and Army. But, to Navy’s credit, it was a very good basketball team last season. Just ask Georgetown, who the Midshipmen wrecked by seven points on the 1st of December.

Navy returns 88% of its minutes from last year per Bart Torvik, third most in the Patriot. Only 1st Team All-Patriot guard Cam Davis departs, so the Midshipmen could be in store for another excellent year. DeChellis has always seemed to exceed expectations over the past decade.

Davis’s departure leaves large holes in the scoring department and at the point guard position, the latter being the most crucial. Seniors John Carter and Greg Summers will lead the offense after both averaging double figures last season. Carter ranked 3rd in the Patriot in percentage of team shots taken last year and seems poised to step into a featured role. His efficiency improved as a junior, and he’s a decent enough shooter to keep opposing close-outs honest. Summers likely plays point, which gives Navy a very big perimeter lineup with which to wreak havoc defensively. Offensively, Summers does his damage via powering to the bucket – he’s not a shooter and led the league in FT rate last season.

Both Summers and Carter are good rebounders from the perimeter, which is a theme amongst the entire Navy roster. DeChellis’s Midshipmen are consistently excellent on the glass on both ends of the floor.

The frontcourt is stable with the return of team captain Richard Njoku and 4-man Tyler Nelson, as well as their backups, Daniel Deaver and Jaylen Walker. Njoku earned Patriot All-Defense honors last season and is a tough, physical 5-man who competes on the glass and defends the paint with positioning and strength.

Njoku is a good finisher at the rim and ranked in the 74th percentile nationally in PPP via post-ups last season (Synergy).

Nelson is solid on both ends and shoots when needed. He adds versatility to the lineup. Walker is more of a stretch 4, knocking down 37.5% of his 3PA last season. Deaver was the highest used player on the team when he saw the floor last year. He can shoot from deep, rebound, and defend the paint.

Filling in on the wing will be Patrick Dorsey, a shooter and capable perimeter defender. He leads a rotation that includes returners Sean Yoder and Christian Silva, as well as George Mason transfer Lysander Rehnstrom (elite name). Point guard Austin Inge could start at the lead guard this year after starting Navy’s final three games last season due to teammates being out. He was extremely inefficient as a freshman, though, and averaged just 4.7 PPG and 2.7 APG in 27.3 MPG as a starter.

Navy’s offense isn’t flashy. It’s a slow-paced, half-court attack that pounds the glass and looks to get shots in the soft underbelly of the arc. The Midshipmen led the Patriot in offensive rebounding rate last season, but their shot quality was lacking. Navy shot the 39th highest rate of 2P jumpers in the country, per Hoop-Math, and ranked 22nd in FG%. The field goal percentage rank looks good until you realize it was just 42.9%.

Defensively, the Midshipmen are a tough bunch who, like on the offensive end, dominate the glass. Navy ranked 22nd in the country in turnover rate last season (led the Patriot) thanks in large part to their lengthy perimeter. Summers can be an elite defender, and Carter is another big guard at 6’4”. Those two paired with an interior stopper in Njoku should make this team one of the best defensive squads in the league. DeChellis will throw in some zone and full-court press looks to spice things up with his traditional man-to-man, and his teams are always excellent at getting back in transition and stopping the break.

Bottom Line: Navy shocked everyone last season by dominating its schedule, but the Midshipmen won’t sneak up on anyone in 2021-22. This year holds arguably the highest expectations ever for DeChellis at his current school, as Navy was picked 3rd in the preseason poll and rank 2nd in KenPom’s initial PL standings. DeChellis will try to get his program back to the Big Dance for the first time since 1998.

Tier 3

4. American

Key Returners: Stacy Beckton, Josh Alexander, Johnny O’Neil, Connor Nelson, Ben Lubarsky, Matt Rogers, Colin Smalls, Christian Lorng, Lorenzo Donadio
Key Losses: Jahmir Harris
Key Newcomers: Jaxon Knotek (North Dakota State), Lincoln Ball (George Washington), Elijah Stephens

Lineup:

Outlook: Patriot teams had a rough go of things last season, but American drew the shortest straw. The Eagles played just nine regular season contests and ten overall, good for the least amount in the league. Because of that, and the fact the Eagles played just three opponents in the regular season (Navy, Loyola MD, and Bucknell), it’s very difficult to gauge how good or bad they were. There was clearly talent on last year’s roster, especially in the form of 1st Team All-Patriot selection Jahmir Harris, a 20 PPG scorer and current member of the Seton Hall Pirates. Head coach Mike Brennan was able to integrate a lot of young players early and often last year, which should pay dividends in 2021-22. Aside from Harris, everyone returns for American – this could be a sneaky dangerous squad in conference play.

Brennan played college ball for Princeton in the early 90s and served as an assistant there for eight seasons. Thus, it shouldn’t be surprising the style of offense he employs – you guessed it, the Princeton offense. The Princeton offense is a halfcourt style predicated on off-ball movement (i.e. cutting, screening away) and finding mismatches. A key position in this offense is the 5-man, who is often inverted, initiating offense from the elbow or top of the arc.

Josh Alexander is American’s primary “Princeton 5”. He is an excellent passer, ranking 7th in the league last year in assist rate, and capable post scorer. When Alexander passed out of post-up situations last season, American scored 1.3 points per possession, good for the 81st percentile nationally per Synergy. Alexander is the man in the middle, and Brennan plays four shooters with him on the floor at almost all times. It’s a spaced attack that can be deadly when firing on all cylinders.

Ball security issues hindered American’s offense last season, which could be exacerbated without Harris, but the Eagles were a very good 3P shooting team and should be again this season.

True point guard play isn’t as crucial in the Princeton offense as in other styles, but it’s still important. Brennan will likely turn to sophomore Colin Smalls for PG starts or even 5’9” freshman Elijah Stephens. Smalls is quick but needs to improve on his poor efficiency last season. Stephens was a big-time scorer in high school.

Stacy Beckton will be the focal point on both ends of the floor this season. Beckton is a two-time Patriot All-Defense honoree who is trusted to guard the opposition’s best perimeter player on a nightly basis.

Beckton is also a skilled offensive player, as he showed in the opening game against Navy last season when he poured in 30 points on 10/13 shooting. He’ll see a spike in usage without Harris this year and likely ends up on an All-Conference team in March.

Competing for wing starts alongside Beckton will be Connor Nelson and Ben Lubarsky, two full-time starters last season. Nelson is an excellent defender who led the league in steal rate last season (and ranked 2nd as a freshman the year prior), a big wing who can shoot the triple. Lubarsky is primarily a shooter, knocking down 37% of his 3-pointers last season. Sophomore wing Lorenzo Donadio will provide depth. Malcolm Bragg, who returns after opting out last season, could also see some run if healthy.

One of Nelson or Lubarksy will come off the bench this season, because there’s no way Brennan can keep Johnny O’Neil off the floor for long. O’Neil burst onto the scene last season with a 14-point / 8-rebound / 6-block performance against Navy on his way to capturing the Patriot’s Rookie of the Year award. At 6’9”, O’Neil is a potent floor spacer who hit 39% of his 3PA last season. He’s also mobile and a good ball handler capable of starting the break or beating bad close-outs off the bounce.

O’Neil was one of my favorite mid-major players to watch last season, and I’m looking forward to seeing what he does in a potential sophomore breakout campaign.

Matt Rogers and Christian Lorng will be the primary backup bigs. Rogers is a good option as the “Princeton 5”, a solid passer, rebounder, and post finisher. Lorng is a burly center who adds size to the floor.

Two transfers, Jaxon Knotek from North Dakota State and Lincoln Ball from George Washington, will compete for rotation spots this season. Knotek is a big wing who can play the 3 or 4 and give American another capable shooter on the floor. He’s yet to be efficient in college, however. Ball started nine games for GW last season, but he barely shot or touched the rock – a 9% usage is nearly impossible for a starter, but that’s what Ball posted last season. Perhaps he finds more success at American. Freshman big man Matt Delaney is a future impact player. He’s a 6’7” forward who can shoot and is strong enough to bang inside.

American’s defense was solid last season and usually has been under Brennan. While the Eagles tend to foul at a high rate, they do the smart thing by running opponents off the 3-point line and forcing them into traffic. O’Neil and Alexander ranked 3rd and 4th in the Patriot in block rate last season, so they can handle dribble drives and post-ups. Beckton might be the best perimeter defender in the league, and Nelson isn’t too far behind. Everything points to American being stout on this end of the floor in ’21-22.

Bottom Line: You don’t have to look back too far to find a season in which American competed near the top of the Patriot. In 2019-20 the Eagles finished 12-6 in a tie for 2nd behind Colgate. This year’s version might not be quite that level, but there’s enough talent and experience to vault the Eagles into the top-half of the standings by season’s end.

5. Army

Key Returners: Jalen Rucker, Josh Caldwell, Charlie Peterson, Aaron Duhart, Jared Cross
Key Losses: Lonnie Grayson, Alex King, Tucker Blackwell, Nick Finke
Key Newcomers: Isaiah Caldwell, AJ Allenspach, TJ Small

Lineup:

Outlook: Army was one of the few Patriot squads to play a (abbreviated) non-conference schedule last season, and boy howdy were the Black Knights a force to be reckoned with. The Ground Troops took down Buffalo and La Salle and nearly upset a Florida squad to whom they were 23-point underdogs. In Patriot play, an uneven schedule made Army play league champ Colgate four times. While the Raiders blew the doors off the Knights in round one, Army did score a victory in round two, making them the only Patriot team to beat Colgate all season. Last season was the 2nd best Army team in KenPom’s 25-year history (#1 was Zach Spiker’s 2013 squad). Jimmy Allen and the Knights will look to build off ’20-21’s success behind the efforts of three returning starters.

Allen’s offenses are always uptempo and like to play in transition, but last season was Allen’s slowest in his six-year tenure at Army. The Knights still looked to run in the open floor, particularly off opponents scores, but they played more in the halfcourt than in years past.

It’s hard to say if Allen’s tempo slowdown was an anomaly or a new trend. Army’s uneven scheduling could have skewed its pace numbers. This is still a backcourt-led squad lacking size, so it would make sense to continue trying to beat the opposition in the open floor.

When in the halfcourt, the Knights take good, smart shots. Per Hoop-Math, Army ranked 50th in the country in FGA% near the rim, 75th in FGA% from outside the arc, and 327th in FGA% from the mid-range. That’s a winning basketball strategy.

Defensively, Army was a scrappy bunch in ’20-21, using toughness and hustle to make up for their lack of size. Allen packed it in, prioritizing keeping the ball away from the rim instead of running shooters off the arc. Per KenPom, Army allowed the highest rate of 3PA in the Patriot, which resulted in them also allowing the highest 3P% (playing Colgate four times boosted these numbers). Allen’s philosophy will likely stay consistent this year – the Knights will be a pain to play against, and teams who aren’t engaged or ready to play will find scoring difficult.

Army’s best defensive player and the reigning Patriot Defensive Player of the Year, Josh Caldwell, is back for his senior season. Caldwell ranked 4th in the Patriot in steal rate last year and wreaked havoc on the perimeter with his length. Offensively, Caldwell is a tough driver and a capable shooter when he needs to be. He led the Knights in scoring last season and will look to do so again in ’21-22.

Jalen Rucker returns to run point hot off the heels of a Patriot All-Rookie Team campaign. Rucker is a star in the making in this league with his quickness and shiftiness.

Rucker was a high usage player last year, but he was great at limiting mistakes, which is uncommon for freshman point guards. This year he’ll shift his focus to improving on subpar shooting clips.

One of either Aaron Duhart or Jared Cross will start at the third guard spot following Lonnie Grayson’s departure. Duhart is a combo guard who racked up a solid assist-to-turnover ratio last year, but he’s struggled mightily to find his shot. Cross is the player to watch of the pair, a 6’3” sophomore guard looking to take on a much larger minutes role this season. He shot 36% from 3 last season and will likely be Army’s best outside shooting threat in ’21-22.

Charlie Peterson is the lone returning starter in the frontcourt. He finished well and showed promise as a freshman, but a ghastly 8.1 fouls committed per 40 minutes in Patriot play kept him off the floor. He’ll assume the starting 5 spot again this year, but the remaining frontcourt rotation is a toss-up. Chris Mann and Matt Dove appear to be the primary options. Mann is more of a 4 who can stretch the floor, while Dove is a true post who might find it difficult to play next to Peterson.

Picking out impactful freshmen on the service academy teams is nearly impossible. Thankfully, Blue Ribbon talked to Jimmy Allen and picked out a few for us!

Isaiah Caldwell (Josh’s bro) figures to play a role in some capacity. His defensive potential is off the charts with arms that seemingly go on for days. TJ Small is a combo guard who will add shooting to the fold. AJ Allenspach is a wing scorer with guard skills at 6’8”.

Bottom Line: Army doesn’t quite have the recent track record Navy does in terms of outperforming expectations, but the Knights were certainly better than expected last season and could be again in ’21-22. Allen’s teams play tough, physical basketball and rarely turn it over. That can be enough to keep larger spreads close in the non-con and win games against more evenly matched opponents in the Patriot.

6. Lehigh

Key Returners: Marques Wilson, Nic Lynch, Evan Taylor, Reed Fenton, Jeameril Wilson, Jalin Sinclair, Jake Betlow, Dominic Parolin, Jakob Alamudun
Key Losses: Ben Li
Key Newcomers: Tyler Whitney-Sidney, Ben Knostman, Keith Higgins Jr.

Lineup:

Outlook: 2020-21 was another brutal season for a once proud program. Lehigh sank to 334th in KenPom, its lowest mark in the site’s 25-year history and posted a 4-11 record and 4-10 Patriot mark. Getting swept 4-0 by Bucknell and losing 1-3 in a four-game series with Lafayette added insult to injury. It was the second straight season in which the Mountain Hawks fell outside of the KenPom top 300, an unprecedented “accomplishment” under Brett Reed.

Lehigh was once a perennial contender in the Patriot, but it has fallen far short of that the past two seasons. It’s been 10 years since the program last made an NCAA Tournament, when it rode the heroics of CJ McCollum and upset 2-seed Duke.

Only one player departs from last season, so Reed gets to hit the reset button and try to lift his team back to the top of a league it once dominated.

To improve on last year’s awful results, Lehigh needs to score the basketball. The Mountain Hawks checked in with the Patriot’s worst offense last season, ranking dead last in 2P% and eFG% and 9th in 3P%. Poor shot selection (i.e., lots of mid-rangers) was part of the issue, but so was a general dismissive hand waive to the 3-point line. Only two teams in the country had a lower 3PA rate than Lehigh last season, and Reed’s last two teams (the bad ones) have now had low national 3PA rates. His previous four squads to the 2019-20 season posted average-to-above-average 3PA rates and ranked 1st, 7th, 17th, and 14th nationally in 3P%. The 3-point line matters.

It would also help if Lehigh could improve defensively – the Mountain Hawks were good on the glass in ’20-21 but bad at everything else. No resistance on the perimeter nor in the paint, whether in man or zone, was to be found. Lehigh was consistently killed in post, beaten at the rim, and scorched from behind the arc. With essentially the same team coming back and little reason to be believe a turnaround is coming, this side of the ball could still be a major issue.

There’s reason to believe the offensive end improves, perhaps drastically. Certain players shot below their career average and others dealt with injuries throughout the year. Marques Wilson, a 3rd Team All-Patriot selection last season and the team leader, is back for his 5th year as the team’s go-to scorer and playmaker. A career 37% outside shooter, Wilson’s clip tanked to just 32% last season. With a fully healthy Jalin Sinclair ready to run the point full-time, Wilson can slide off the ball more this season which could help his efficiency and 3P clip. He’s a deadly scorer from all three levels and can even post-up smaller guards with high success.

Sinclair’s play this season will go a long way in determining how good (or bad) Lehigh will be. Nagging injuries affected his play all season, and he missed the team’s final three contests. Still, though injuries are a convenient excuse, Sinclair did post a 35% TO rate and a 78.1 O-rating – that isn’t good even with an injury. He has a long way to go to turn last season around. The eye test says Sinclair can do it. He’s very quick and moves with fluidity on the floor – he’s one of those guys you can *just tell* is good at basketball.

Nic Lynch is the “Lynch-pin” inside, a rock-solid center through whom the Mountain Hawks can run offense. Lynch has good range on his jumper, and he’s an effective scorer on the block. Defensively, though, he leaves much to be desired, even with his 6’11” frame.

Reed has several options to plug into the 3 and 4 spots this season. Evan Taylor is a wing who saw plenty of time at the 4 last year thanks to his ability to rebound (2nd in the league in DR%) and hold his own against bigger bodies. He started ten games last season and is one of the best shooters on the roster. Reed Fenton has been a two-year starter, but he shot just 24.5% from deep last year and is a sub-30% marksman for his short career. Major improvement is needed.

Senior forward Jeameril Wilson is definitely one of the five best players on the team, but he embraced a sixth man role midway through last season and might come off the bench again this year. He’s an excellent scorer with an inside-out game. His strength gives him an advantage off the bounce against smaller defenders. Sophomore Dominic Parolin could breakout in his second season; he’s a gifted post scorer who offers more on the glass than Lynch. Jakob Alamudun will be a factor in the 5-man rotation. He showed his score and board potential with a 13-point, 11-rebound performance against Lafayette to open last season. Redshirt freshman JT Tan could see the floor as well after missing last season with injury. He’s a load at 280-pounds and a space eater in the paint.

Jake Betlow started nine games last season in the backcourt, but he was low usage and not very good. Freshmen Tyler Whitney-Sidney, Keith Higgins Jr., and Ben Knostman likely eat into his playing time. Whitney-Sidney is a borderline 3-star point guard with plus athleticism. He should find a role right away. Higgins is a scoring wing, while Knostman is a big point guard at 6’5”.

Bottom Line: Lehigh used to get the benefit of the doubt in preseason rankings and was Sharpied into the top five of the Patriot very offseason. That’s not the case anymore. Reed and Co. need to earn their place this year after two straight on-court disasters. With the most returning production in the Patriot, it’s certainly possible we see a return to form in 2021-22.

7. Lafayette

Key Returners: Kyle Jenkins, Leo O’Boyle, Neal Quinn, Tyrone Perry***, Sean Good, Tomas Verbinskis, Jon Brantley
Key Losses: Justin Jaworski, EJ Stephens, Dylan Hastings
Key Newcomers: CJ Fulton, Isaiah Thompson, Devin Hines, Chris Rubayo

*** Perry tore his ACL in April and likely misses at least the first semester

Lineup:

Outlook: Lafayette finished 9-5 in the Patriot last season playing against a, we’ll say, “weaker schedule” than most. The Leopards were 3-1 against Lehigh, 2-0 against Bucknell (until the Patriot Tourney), 0-2 against Boston, and 4-2 against Loyola MD. They avoided all contests with Colgate, Navy, and Army, the top three teams in the league.

But let’s not take anything away from Lafayette – a 9-5 record in the Patriot is impressive no matter the schedule. And last season was the first time since 1999 / 2000 that the program posted back-to-back records of over .500 in conference play. Fran O’Hanlon was the coach back then, and he’s still the coach now. The 73-year-old is one of the longest tenured head coaches in the country, now entering his 27th season at the helm.

The ‘Pards lose their best two players and scorers from last season in All-Conference performers Justin Jaworski and EJ Stephens. That’s a big blow to an offense that’s usually quite good on a relative basis under O’Hanlon. To make matter worse, presumed starting point guard Tyrone Perry tore his ACL in April and is likely to miss the first two months of the season. Lafayette will need its freshmen class to step up earlier than expected.

Lafayette ranked 2nd in the Patriot in offensive efficiency last season (KenPom) thanks to never turning the ball over, employing excellent ball movement, and having terrific outside shooters. O’Hanlon’s motion offense is unselfish and usually spaces the floor with four shooters playing at once. His Leopard squad settled for jumpers too much last season, but at least they hit a fair amount of them.

The man in the middle of the 4-out / 1-in attack is Neal Quinn, a legit 7-footer who has only begun to scratch the surface of his potential. Quinn ranked in the 87th percentile nationally in PPP scored off post-ups, deploying an arsenal of post moves and using his length to finish over defenders.

What’s more impressive, though, is Quinn’s passing ability. He led the Patriot in assist rate last season and ranked 10th in the country per KenPom. By my quick eyeballing of the rankings, Quinn was the only frontcourt player to rank inside the top 100. His skill in the post demands double-teams every touch, and he’s willing to kick it to his more than capable shooters dotting the perimeter.

The guy who knocked down that shot in the above clip is Leo O’Boyle, a 6’7” wing shooter who should start at the 3 this season. O’Boyle is a dangerous sniper from distance who hit 37% of his 3PA last season.

Kyle Jenkins will start at the 4, and he’s the type of player O’Hanlon loves to play at that position – a guy who can score inside and shoot from outside the arc. Jenkins landed a spot on the Patriot’s All-Rookie Team last season and shot 39% from deep; he’ll look to take a step up in usage with Jaworski and Stephens out of the picture.

Rounding out the frontcourt rotation is 6’10” center Sean Good, former Richmond transfer Tomas Verbinskis, sophomore Eric Sondberg, and freshman Chris Rubayo. Good is a rim protector who offers more on the defensive side than Quinn. Verbinskis is a wing shooter. Sondberg can play multiple spots and adds shooting. Rubayo is a long, skinny center likely a year or two away from contributing.

Lafayette’s frontcourt is very solid. Its backcourt is decidedly not.

With Perry’s injury, Lafayette needs to find a new PG. The only two options on the roster are freshmen: Ireland native CJ Fulton and Isaiah Thompson. Fulton is a gifted shooter and passer, but it’s hard to tell how his game will translate to stiffer competition in the States. Thompson is quick and can also fire away from deep. Both rookies are sure to get plenty of run.

Sophomore Jon Brantley likely starts at the 2 where he has giant shoes to fill sans Jaworski / Stephens. Brantley barely played as a freshman, but he has the talent to be an impact scorer. Freshman wing Devin Hines should also see plenty of minutes. His athleticism is a rarity on this roster.

Defense has never been good under O’Hanlon, at least in a really long time. Since 2009 the Leopards have ranked inside KenPom’s top 300 of adjusted defensive efficiency just thrice. Lack of athleticism certainly is a factor, as is a general lack of perimeter pressure and resistance at the rim. Given Quinn and Good’s size it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense why Lafayette’s defense was so brutal guarding the post last season… until you realize it played Santi Aldama six times. With a more balanced scheduled and more experience under Quinn’s belt, hopefully Lafayette will improve on this end of the floor.

Bottom Line: Lafayette could finish in a wide array of positions this season. The ‘Pard frontcourt can stack up with any in the league, but the lack of backcourt experience is incredibly concerning. Perry *should* be back in time for most of conference play, so perhaps that point will be moot by then, but Lafayette is sure to struggle through its non-conference portion.

8. Loyola MD

Key Returners: Golden Dike, Jaylin Andrews, Kenneth Jones, Cam Spencer, Wade Jackson, Alonso Faure
Key Losses: Santi Aldama, Isaiah Hart, Luke Johnson, Brent Holcombe, Brandon Bradsher
Key Newcomers: Chris Kuzemka, Nick Marshall, Veljko Ilic, Milos Ilic, David Brown III

Lineup:

Outlook: It was a so-so season for Loyola MD? A disappointing one? A successful one? It’s hard to measure!

On one hand, the Greyhounds were just 4-10 in the regular season (with four losses to Lafayette), on the other, they made the Patriot League tournament title game and finished with their best KenPom ranking (214th) since Jimmy Patsos’ last team in 2013. Injuries plagued the Hounds all season, but once (almost) fully healthy they started looking like what we thought they’d be last preseason: a Patriot contender.

This season will be challenging. Loyola loses Santi Aldama, its do-everything 6’11” unicorn who was selected in the First Round of the NBA Draft this summer. Aldama took the highest percentage of team shots in the Patriot and ranked 2nd in usage – he was literally Loyola’s entire offense, as Hoop-Explorer splits show below:

Those offensive numbers without Aldama on the floor are, well, offensive. When Aldama sat, Loyola morphed into essentially the worst offensive team in the country. Head coach Tavaras Hardy surely hopes a full offseason and adjusted gameplan prevents his squad from being awful on this end in ’21-22.

Replacing Aldama is impossible, and unlike some other Patriot squads (and most teams around the country), Loyola didn’t bring in any new blood from the transfer portal. Hardy’s best hope to make up some of the lost production is in the form of Aldama’s fellow countryman, sophomore Alonso Faure. Faure is not Aldama – he doesn’t have his mobility or ball handling skills – but he is a 6’10” forward who can shoot and rebound the ball. He’ll likely slot into the starting five alongside fellow Spaniard Golden Dike, giving Loyola one of the biggest frontcourts in the league.

Dike was the best offensive rebounder by rate in the conference last season, using his strength to out-muscle opponents for caroms clanging off the glass.

Offensively, Dike is best at chasing down lose balls or finishing off cuts / rolls – he can also finish on post-ups but playing through him wasn’t a priority last season. Dike has a major weakness, though: free throw shooting. For his career Dike is just 77/190 (40.5%) from the line, which must be one of the worst marks in the country. He converted just 29.7% of his charity stripe tries last season, completely negating his impressive FT rate. If he hasn’t improved in this area, conference foes can employ a “hack-a-Golden” strategy and completely take Loyola out of their flow.

Hope for offensive competence lies in the backcourt this season where Jaylin Andrews, Kenneth Jones, and Cam Spencer return. Andrews is a scoring guard who excels as a slasher in isolation or off ball screens.

He’s yet to turn in a productive outside shooting season and is just 27% for his career from distance, but he’s one of the Greyhounds’ top offensive weapons and rarely comes off the floor.

Jones will run point in his senior season after starting six times last year. He’s a career 39% trey-baller but that clip fell to 33% last season. Jones is a solid presence at the top of the offense; he won’t breakout for 30 points on a given night, but he won’t make too many mistakes either.

Spencer played only the final five games last season due to injury. When healthy, he’s one of Loyola’s best players and an absolute marksman from deep. He’s hit 44% of his 109 3PA.

Wade Jackson will provide minutes as a backup combo guard, though he must improve a 70.6 O-rating to stay on the floor. Two freshmen, Nick Marshall and Chris Kuzemka, are sure to see some run in their first seasons (Loyola typically has a player on the league’s All-Rookie Team on an annual basis). Marshall is a big PG at 6’5” while Kuzemka is a quick, athletic combo guard who plays hard and shoots well. Fellow frosh David Brown III, a long wing and solid shooter, could also see time in the rotation.

Frontcourt depth is thin. Casmir Ochiaka returns after playing just five games last season due to injury. He also missed all of the ’19-20 season. As a freshman, Ochiaka was a key reserve and ranked in the top three in the Patriot in both OR% and DR%. Fellow returner Markese Redding, a seldom-used reserve, likely maintains a deep bench role.

Twin freshman bigs Veljko and Milos Ilic will likely carve out spots in the rotation. Veljko is a center, a long post with good footwork and range to 18-feet. Milos is stretchier, a more mobile version of his brother. He plays the 4 but needs to add some LBs to earn a bigger role.

Circling back to that first chart, it’s a good sign Loyola was lockdown defensively when Aldama was off the floor, and there’s reason to believe the Greyhounds can be one of the better defensive squads in the conference in ’21-22. The Dike and Faure combo up front is big and intimidating, and opposing teams had a difficult time scoring inside against Loyola last season. To beat the Greyhounds on this end, you must hit jump shots, and that’s usually a good formula for defensive success.

Hardy mixes in a fair amount of zone to his man schemes, and he also shows token full-court pressure in certain situations. His Greyhounds were excellent at shutting down transition chances last season, and likely will be again this year.

Bottom Line: At the end of the day, it’s sort of rinse, wash, repeat with Loyola MD in terms of where it stands in the Patriot rankings. This appears to be another middling conference squad who can pull off some big wins and lose a handful of head scratchers.

9. Bucknell

Key Returners: Andrew Funk, Xander Rice, Andre Screen, Jake van der Heijden
Key Losses: John Meeks, Deuce Turner, Walter Ellis, Paul Newman, Miles Latimer
Key Newcomers: Ian Motta, Elvin Edmonds IV, Brock Newton, Josh Bascoe

Lineup:

Outlook: The Bucknell basketball program is at one of its lowest points in the past 25 years. Normally a perennial Patriot League title contender, the Bison have fallen on hard times over the past two seasons. In Nathan Davis’s first four seasons as head coach Bucknell made two NCAA Tournaments, ranked inside the KenPom top 100 twice, and went 58-14 in conference play. The last two years Bucknell is just 12-16 in the Patriot and hasn’t finished inside the KenPom top 240.

COVID obviously impacted the Bison last season, limiting them to just 12 games (ten in league play), and their best player, John Meeks, played in only six contests. Given those circumstances, it’s easy to just say to ignore last season. But 2019-20 was no picnic either, and this year’s roster is extremely young and unproven. Bucknell’s success will be heavily leveraged on the play of its freshmen.

Andrew Funk is the only senior on the roster, a rarity in college basketball this season. Bucknell has zero incoming transfers, another rarity. Four of Bucknell’s top ten options this season are freshmen and two more are sophomores. Nathan Davis has his work cut out for him.

Funk is now the go-to guy offensively, a role he was thrust into last season when Meeks was out. Bucknell needs Funk to be an efficient scorer, a player it can rely on to get tough buckets late in the clock and play through when things stagnate. Funk is just a career 30% 3-point shooter, which has to improve given his volume. He has the form and confidence to be a good shooter, he just needs to execute. Not a one trick pony, Funk is adept at attacking the rim and getting to the foul line, an area where Bucknell relied heavily on to score points in 2021.

Xander Rice is Funk’s right-hand man in the backcourt and the team’s starting point guard. Though Rice won’t be intimidating anyone when he steps off the bus, he’s a very steady option at the point of attack. Last season Rice shot over 42% from 3, ranked 3rd in the league in assist rate, 4th in FT rate, and 3rd in offensive rating. He should see all the minutes he can handle in his junior season.

Bucknell’s third and final known commodity is Andre Screen, a 7-foot sophomore primed for a breakout campaign. Screen is a shot-blocker defensively and capable post scorer on the offensive end. He’s very mobile for his size and a dangerous lob threat on the baseline. Davis has heaped praise on Screen this offseason, indicating he’ll be one of the better big men in the Patriot in ’21-22.

Beyond those three, playing time is wide open. Up front Jake van der Heijden has a good chance of starting after doing so four times last season. He’s a stretch 4 with a pure stroke from behind the arc. Malachi Rhodes will also compete for starts and gives Bucknell a burlier presence up front. Rhodes is a big body and a solid athlete with shooting touch. Alex Timmerman will also be in the mix for minutes at the 5-spot behind Screen.

In the backcourt, sophomore Josh Adoh is the lone returner outside of Funk and Rice, so he’ll have a leg up for starts early in the year. Adoh missed time with injury last season but can provide a meaningful impact defensively when on the floor. He’ll have stiff competition from the freshmen, though, especially Ian Motta who seems to be the next Bucknell star. Motta can jump out of the gym and shoot the triple; he’s ready to contribute immediately and I’d wager he’ll grab a starting role before season’s end. Fellow freshmen Elvin Edmonds IV and Josh Bascoe should also see the floor in some capacity. Both are combo guards who can shoot and run the point. Bascoe seems to have a slight advantage with his skill, quickness, and athleticism combination. Davis’s fourth freshman, 6’7” combo forward Brock Newton, can play the 3 or 4 and add value as a floor spacer.

Davis employs an uptempo offensive style. Bucknell was the Patriot’s fastest offense last season and the 13th fastest in the country. The Bison are transition-focused first and foremost, but if Screen emerges as a true post threat, they’ll play through him consistently in the halfcourt.

Rather than selling out for offensive rebounds, Bucknell gets back on defense where it limits transition at one of the best rates in the country. The Bison were so-so on the defensive end last year, but they have the pieces to be better in 2021-22. Davis likes to run shooters off the 3-point line, which is especially effective when you have a rim protector as the last line of defense. With Screen roaming the paint, Bucknell can be aggressive on close-outs and force opponents to take tough shots over their long skyscraper.

Bottom Line: This is probably the lowest expectation for a Bucknell team in 14 years. On paper the Bison lack an abundance of talent and athleticism, and they certainly aren’t experienced. Davis is a good coach, but it will be tough to finish in the top half of the league with a roster that needs some serious seasoning.

10. Holy Cross

Key Returners: Gerrale Gates, RJ Johnson, Bo Montgomery, Judson Martindale, DaJion Humphrey
Key Losses: Austin Butler, Matt Faw, Ryan Wade
Key Newcomers: Nolan Dorsey (New Mexico), Kyrell Luc, Caleb Kenney, Austin Lewis

Lineup:

Outlook: Though it may not seem like it, last season was a success and a step in the right direction for Holy Cross basketball. The Crusaders finished just 5-11, but they improved 44 spots from KenPom’s preseason ranking of 348 (and 40 spots from ’19-20’s final rank) and ended their two-year streak of finishing last in the Patriot. Two wins over Army, three wins over Boston U, and a tight OT loss to Colgate is nothing to sneeze at, and Holy Cross accomplished those feats despite playing four freshmen major minutes.

Brett Nelson is in his 3rd year at Holy Cross and finally has a full, uninterrupted offseason under his belt. Unfortunately, he lost another battle with the transfer portal with the departure of Austin Butler, but he has enough pieces returning to make things interesting. Holy Cross will be super young for a second straight season, as only one upperclassman is expected to play major minutes. Expect the Crusaders to finish in the bottom half of the league but throw some haymakers as several players make the coveted freshman-to-sophomore production leap.

Holy Cross’s best asset this season could be its defense, which is not something that can be said about Nelson’s first two teams. But the Crusaders have a ton of length on the perimeter to wreak havoc in Nelson’s pressure system. Sophomores Bo Montgomery and DaJion Humphrey are both 6’5” wings with defensive upside, Judson Martindale is 6’6”, senior depth piece Malcolm Townsel is 6’5”, and freshman Caleb Kenney has a 7’3” wingspan. New Mexico transfer Nolan Dorsey might be the most athletic of the bunch, another 6’5” wing to plug into multiple spots. On top of that, freshman PG Kyrell Luc projects as a tenacious ball hawk, and 4-man Gerrale Gates is one of the strongest forwards in the league.

Nelson pressed at the 16th highest rate in the country last season and might increase that in ’21-22 with a full offseason and practice slate. This pressure does two things for Holy Cross: 1) it allows HC to take advantage of its length and quickness, and 2) it helps cover up the glaring defensive weakness in the paint. The Crusaders allowed the highest rate of rim attempts in the country last season, which drove their awful overall defensive rating.

Not only that, but Holy Cross was also the worst defensive rebounding team in the Patriot. With only two options at the 5 this season, Michael Rabinovich and Louth-M Coulibaly, interior defense figures to be a weakness again. Rabinovich is 6’10”, but he played just 41 minutes last season. Coulibaly played just five. Freshman Austin Lewis is tall but severely lacks strength at this point.

Offense figures to improve this season. Nelson plays at an uptempo pace, and his team gets to the rim with regularity. Holy Cross ranked 22nd nationally in FGA% near the rim, but just 336th in FG%. Gates was one of the main culprits of HC’s futility from close proximity. He shot just 53.6% near the bucket on high volume. Gates is better than that, and his 3rd Team All-Patriot hardware and team-leading 16.4 PPG last season is proof. He’s an aggressive rim attacker who can out-muscle most opponents in the Patriot. He should be one of the better players in the league this season.

RJ Johnson returns to run point fresh off a Patriot All-Rookie Team campaign. Johnson ranked 4th in the league in assist rate last season but turned the ball over a quarter of the time. Experience should help Johnson rein in his ball security, and his 34% 3P clip is a good sign for things to come. He should have a big year this season and feast off Gates ball screens.

Montgomery and Humphrey aren’t great on the offensive end, but there’s potential for improvement. Both players are better off the bounce or slashing to the rim versus standstill shooters. Martindale, though, is a money shooter, as evidenced by his 40% outside shooting clip his freshman season. Martindale started eight games last year and should be a regular in the starting five as a sophomore.

Dorsey will be difficult to keep off the floor. He’s athletic, can shoot, and exudes confidence. It wouldn’t be surprising seeing him starting on opening day. Kenney’s offensive impact is TBD, but his defensive potential is off the charts. Luc is quick and an able backup for Johnson. Unfortunately, as on the defensive end, the 5-spot will be the weak point. Coulibaly is a rebounder / catch-and-dunk forward. Rabinovich attempted just five shots in those 41 minutes and isn’t looking to score.

Bottom Line: Holy Cross is young and bound to have some inconsistencies this season as a result. But with a full offseason and a roster to fit Nelson’s full-court pressing style, the Crusaders are more than capable of clawing upwards toward the middle of the Patriot standings. If Gates sticks around next year, this will be a team to look out for.