-Matt Cox
Key Returners: Matthew Mayer, Adam Flagler, Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, Flo Thamba, LJ Cryer
Key Losses: Davion Mitchell, Jared Butler, MaCio Teague, Mark Vital
Key Newcomers: James Akinjo (Arizona), Kendall Brown, Langston Love
Lineup:
Outlook: From calamity to Cloud 9, Scott Drew’s climb to college basketball glory is one for the ages – seriously, it’s insane. Writers far more knowledgeable and eloquent than I have detailed the improbability of this run ad nauseam, so we’ll skip over those historical chapters for this preview.
Apologies Baylor fans if you were seeking a poetic rehash of last year’s fairytale. This is Baylor, your 2021 national champions, and this is their 2022 outlook…
Let’s rip the band aid off early. Scott Drew may never find a backcourt trio as good as Davion Mitchell, Jared Butler and MaCio Teague. That triumvirate spearheaded one of the most terrifying two-way units the collegiate game has ever seen. Jared Butler was the known commodity last summer but his undercard running mates quickly rose to stardom alongside him. However, it was Mitchell who shined the brightest. No longer did he defer to Butler in crunch time. Suddenly, Drew began to call his number in high leverage situations, and no one could stop him. His explosive burst off the dribble left defenders in the dust night after night. Inevitably, they started backpedaling in fear, which simply prompted Mitchell to drain casual pull-ups from 22-feet without breaking a sweat.
Sorry, James Akinjo, but that’s a tough act to follow. The prized transfer pick up from Arizona offers boundless upside and carries elite pedigree, but no one realistically expects him to replicate Mitchell’s two-way impact. That said, Akinjo’s about as good of a one-year rental as you’ll find in the portal. A tumultuous two seasons at Georgetown prompted Akinjo’s west coast getaway to the desert, which, in hindsight, was just what the doctor ordered. He seamlessly took the keys to the Wildcats’ offense, finally achieving that evasive threshold of ‘efficiency’ that escaped him as an underclassman in the nation’s capital.
Last year, Akinjo finally started to convert those tempting 2s at relatively higher clip – though, he still has a LONG way to go in this department – but it was the resurrection of his deep ball that elevated his game. After posting the 5th best 3PT FG% in the Pac-12 last season (44%), Akinjo’s seen his career 3-point conversion rate rise to 38%.
The final frontier for Akinjo is sharpening his interior efficiency. Despite the modest gains last year, Akinjo was still extremely unreliable from inside the arc. Per hoop-math.com, he shot a dismal 31% on mid-range jumpers, which accounted for the lion’s share of his field goal attempts. It’s impossible to reconcile that shot selection preference with the fact that he was 10% more accurate from 3-point range. Last time I checked, those shot are worth an extra point.
The following chart below from ShotQuality.com shows the highest usage players in the country last season ranked in order of their expected individual efficiency (points per possession, or ‘PPP). This is based on 1) type of shot and 2) individual shot-making percentages. It’s important to note that guards inherently will always grade out as less efficient in this metric, as evidenced by the top-10 leaderboard dominated by bigs. Still, Akinjo’s suboptimal shot selection, and inability to make those shots consistently, reflect his poor score.
Circling back to the losses of Teague and Butler, Adam Flagler and Langston Love have their own gargantuan shoes to fill. Drew’s recent renovation of the Bears’ offense was ideal for last year’s prolific perimeter crew, but Butler and Teague’s dazzling shot-making ability would’ve made any coach look brilliant.
The freshman Love comes equipped with the same triple-threat scoring package that made Butler and Teague so lethal. The obvious caveat, though, is that he’s still an unseasoned rookie at this juncture.
Flagler’s experience will help, as will his kerosene shooting ability, arming the Bears with a potent long range assassin. However, finding consistency will be key for the streaky Flagler as he becomes a key cog in the rotation, a promotion from his microwave reserve role last year. LJ Cryer is also waiting in the wings to make his mark. He’ll move up into Flagler’s super-sub seat to start but could easily usurp the younger Love in the starting lineup. Cryer, a former high school scoring machine, has a phD in bucket acquiring and now has the runway to showcase his talents in a world without Butler, Teague and Mitchell in his way.
5-star phenom Kendall Brown sets the table for a hyper athletic crew of wings and forwards, akin to the prototypical throwback Baylor rosters of prior years. Per this detailed breakdown of Brown from Riley Davis, Brown can flat out soar. In transition, he’s a highlight reel waiting to come alive, but he also displays advanced cutting and floor spacing instincts off the ball in the half court. His handle needs refinement and his range is limited so position options may be limited to the 3 and the 4. Though, those deficiencies may be hidden if Akinjo and Flagler can consistently push the pace out in the open floor.
The underrated element of this backcourt is speed. The half-court wizardry of Butler, Mitchell and Teague was truly special, but replenishing their calculated efficiency with quick scoring bursts out in transition could account for part of that. Akinjo, Flagler, Love and Cryer can flat out fly in the open floor, and all have the ability to catch fire at any given moment. Drew’s coming off his fastest season tempo wise since 2013, a sign last year’s evolution may carry forward into 2022.
Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua (‘JTT’) and Flo Thamba return up front as the center platoon crew from last year’s national title run. JTT’s lateral mobility and defensive versatility give him an edge over Thamba but Flo’s imposing size will present problems for opposing rim attackers. Don’t forget about Dain Dainja and Zach Loveday, two more redwood-sized trees at Drew’s disposal up front. In summation, that’s one heckuva frontline blockade to score over for opposing offenses. Getting stops shouldn’t be an issue but the Bears’ defense will be predicated on size and length in 2022, rather than the relentless ball pressure it leaned on last season.
Ahhh yes, finally, the climax of our player introductions: meet the Mullet-man, Matthew Mayer.
It’s not often you find a guy who averaged 8 points and 4 rebounds earn resounding praise as a legitimate All-American candidate (eh, maybe it’s just me) heading into the following season. Yet, anyone who watched Mayer play for five minutes in the NCAA Tournament sees the simmering upside. His motor runs as hot as any player in America, and his toolbox is as diverse as any player in America. He’s devastating in pick-n-pop, he’s lethal in mid-post isolations and he defends like gangbusters, flying all over the floor in Drew’s switch-everything man-to-man.
Please ignore the porous defensive effort here by Auburn and swoon over the spin-cycle dish sequence:
Bottom Line: Despite all the star power walking out the door, Scott Drew may boast his deepest roster ever in 2022. For goodness’ sake, a top-100 recruit (Jeremy Sochan) and D-II monster (Dale Bonner) are lurking at the bottom of our projected depth chart as borderline afterthoughts. Though big questions remain unanswered, particularly in the backcourt, the world is about to see first-hand the ammunition Drew had stockpiled in reserves last season, who went toe-to-toe with Teague, Butler, Mitchell and defensive destroyer Mark Vital all year in practice. That doesn’t even account for a freshmen class with two top-50 prospects and a frontcourt that returns everyone not named Vital. There’s no reason why the Bears can’t push Kansas, again, for the Big-12 crown.