-Matt Cox
Key Returners: Jeremy Roach, Wendell Moore, Mark Williams, Joey Baker
Key Losses: Matthew Hurt, DJ Steward, Jalen Johnson
Key Newcomers: Paolo Banchero, AJ Griffin, Trevor Keels, Theo John (Marquette), Jaylen Blakes, Bates Jones (Davidson)
Lineup:
Outlook: Start prepping those corny video packages, ACC sports marketing departments! The Mike Krzyzewski farewell carriage is coming to YOUR arena this spring!
To some, a hero. To others – well, to most, let’s be honest – a villain. Regardless of what side of the aisle you stand on, Coach K’s larger than life aura will be missed by all.
In hindsight, the announcement of K’s estate transfer didn’t deliver the TNT-worthy drama we all anticipated. The titillating, albeit exhausting, speculation of who would lead Duke into the post-K era became convenient banter in CBB media for years. Then, it happened so suddenly.
Ultimately, golden boy Jon Scheyer was anointed the successor in waiting. At the ripe old age of 33, Scheyer is a season away from manning the helm of an ironclad battleship.
So what about this season? Does Coach K relinquish partial control of the coaching wheel? Or does the status quo hold?
Early reports point toward the latter. Simply put, Scheyer’s role will largely mirror the last nine years he’s sat next to the King of Durham. From a tactical perspective, Scheyer is a key influencer of Duke’s annual offensive design. From a recruiting perspective, he’ll remain the primary vacuum of Duke’s talent acquisition arm, which has become his bread and butter over the last half decade. It’s no secret that it was Scheyer who ran point on several big fish snags. This year is no exception.
The Devils welcome three 5-star blue-chippers to campus, none more heralded than the cream of the crop, Paolo Banchero. As the lone 3MW writer who slotted Duke in the top-10 (see rankings picture above), Banchero is the primary reason why. His freakish talent and burgeoning skill should cleanse Duke fans of the cringy taste in their palate left behind by Jalen Johnson’s putrid rookie performance.
Banchero’s no Zion, but at 6’11, 250 pounds with a 40+ inch vertical, he’s the closest thing to an extra-terrestrial creature the college game has seen in years:
Always regarded as one of the elite recruits in the 2022 cycle, Banchero ascended to new heights this past summer. Jonathan Givony, NBA Draft guru, highlighted the myriad of upgrades to Banchero’s game, which has NBA scouts salivating:
He has made marked improvement as a perimeter shooter, looking extremely comfortable making spot-up 3-pointers, pulling up when defenders go under ball screens or even executing difficult step-backs from NBA range. He lives at the free throw line due to his ability to create from the perimeter and punish smaller players inside, and shows terrific touch at the line or converting turnaround jumpers out of the post. He's also a capable passer who can find teammates on the move. Defensively, Banchero has outstanding timing as a drop defender in pick-and-roll, while also being able to rotate and make plays at the rim with verticality and much improved explosiveness.
Banchero’s otherworldly gifts make him a super utility player, adept at playing virtually any position on the floor..
To fully unlock Banchero’s superhuman tool kit, K must properly manage his positional alignments and maximize the space on the floor for Banchero to operate. Banchero could easily play on the wing, but predominantly featuring him as the secondary big seems like the wise decision.
In this regard, the loss of Matthew Hurt stings. His departure leaves a cavernous void in the outside shooting department. Duke’s institutional success of finding and developing shooting should render this concern moot. Just look at the last 12 seasons. Duke has finished outside the top-100 nationally in 3-point percentage only once, which was the Zion Williamson / RJ Barrett squad of 2019.
However, the Blue Devils haven’t cracked the top-50 in that department since 2016 – thus, concerns still linger.
With Wendell Moore, perception is reality. A career 28% 3-point shooter, Moore has shown flashes of a burgeoning jump shot. Still, I’ll believe it when I see it. He needs to focus on getting back to his roots: punishing people at the rim. Moore’s free throw rate got chopped in half last season, a precarious dip from his rookie campaign when he attempted nearly 70 freebies in 25 games. In fact, Moore’s individual free throw abandonment was a microcosm of a team-wide trend. Duke finished in the bottom-15 nationally in free throw attempt rate last season. Settling for jump shots is a great way to let superior talent, size and athleticism go to waste.
Circling back to the shooting conundrum, Jeremy Roach, Joey Baker and Jaylen Blakes are Duke’s best bets to pop as knock down floor spacers (though that’s just a fraction of what Roach and Blakes bring to the table).
Roach fell below the 30% clip from long distance in ACC play last season but converted 12 his 25 long ball attempts over Duke’s final seven games. Baker’s sniper reputation infuses confidence he can trend closer toward the 40% mark in his fourth full season (36% career). Blakes, a fringe top-100 recruit, is more of a scorer than a pure shooter but he did connect on 37% of his 3-point attempts as a junior in high school.
Even if minor offensive warts emerge, the defense should be the bedrock of this 2022 Blue Devils rendition. The roster is dripping with lab-created defenders. AJ Griffin’s fluidity and length are a prime starter kit for a lockdown multi-positional defender – though, an injury stripped an entire year from his development track during the pandemic. Fellow 5-star rookie Trevor Keels is touted as a prolific power guard with a mature 6’5 210-pound frame, ready-made to be weaponized defensively.
A bolstered interior muscle is why the Devils could sport one of the nation’s stingiest defensive units. Mark Williams showcased one of the steepest improvement curves in college basketball last season – cue the ‘play Mark Williams!’ chorus. Coupled with external hire Theo John, a bruising enforcer in the paint, Duke’s longstanding ‘soft’ reputation in the middle should be quickly extinguished.
Bottom Line: Here’s what Trevor Keels had to say about Duke’s highly anticipated 2022 campaign:
“Y’all are gonna be happy. Y’all are gonna see. We’re gonna win a lot of games. We ain’t gonna disappoint y’all. You can throw the last season out the window. That will never happen again.”
I agree with my guy Trev. Forget last season – in fact, I’m giving all blue bloods a mulligan for last year. This year, I’m putting my eggs in the fruitful talent basket and a roster constructed to defend at an elite level.
My lone concern? Can Coach K generate a high enough ROI on Banchero (no, that was not a subtle ‘pay for play’ joke). Similar standout multi-dimensional talents Jabari Parker, Brandon Ingram, Jayson Tatum and Jalen Johnson all put up gaudy individual stats, but only one of those teams, Jabari’s 2013-14 squad, finished inside KenPom’s top-10, before famously being punk’d by Mercer in the opening round. Another failure to launch with a talent like Banchero would certainly be an anticlimactic conclusion to the King’s reign.