Wooooooo! Less than 50 days away from the most glorious time of the year. Here is version 3 of MRR bracketology on 3MW:
And the full S-Curve:
Last Four IN: Cincinnati, Washington, Saint Joseph's, LSU
First Four OUT: VCU, Oregon State, Texas Tech, Florida State
Next Four OUT: George Washington, Ohio State, Stanford, Arizona State
There's a lot of movement from earlier this week. On the 1-seed line, we still see a familiar foursome, the only difference is UNC overtakes Kansas for the second 1-seed. The Tarheels have a slightly better resume than the Jayhawks right now - though both are elite without question. Also, I still have Nova over Xavier. Both resumes are similar but I'm giving the edge to Nova after their annihilation of the Musketeers earlier this season.
Small shift in the 2/3 line as Virginia regains a 2-seed nod, sliding Sparty back a line. Again these are two teams with similar resumes, but Michigan State's 4 conference losses really gives me pause (even though the competition in the Big Ten is fierce).
Iowa State and Oregon both jump up to the 3-line after big weeks. The Cyclones took down Kansas and the Ducks took down Arizona at Arizona. Oregon's resume is actually stellar, and I know some guys (including my esteemed colleague) have them at a 2-seed. The Ducks are 16-4, #3 in the RPI, #19 per KenPom, and are 9-1 vs. the Top 50 RPI. Providence and West Virginia replace Oregon and Iowa State on the 4-line. I still love both teams, but someone had to fall.
Watch out for Dayton. The Flyers have been flying under the radar and are quietly building their case for a top seed in the Dance. I have them at a 6 right now, but I've seen as high as a 3. The computer numbers love Dayton - #12 in the RPI, 6-1 vs. Top 50 RPI, 10-2 vs. Top 100. Besides the Iowa win though, they have a win over Vandy and GW, and that's really about it.
Duke is now a 7-seed. Good lord.
Clemson keeps winning - they are now a 9 on my bracket. I still can't believe their success thus far.
New entrants to the bracket include Saint Joseph's and Washington as Ohio State and Oregon State fall out. St. Joe's has zero impressive wins, but they are 17-3 and #32 in the RPI - which the committee looks at. Washington gets in after their impressive win at UCLA this week.
By the way - Lunardi at ESPN had Tulsa in earlier this week - would love to hear him defend that one.