-Matt Cox
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Ryan Davis, Sr., Vermont
Coach of the Year: Geno Ford, Stony Brook
Newcomer of the Year: Elijah Olaniyi, R Sr., Stony Brook
Freshman of the Year: Justin Neely, Albany
Tier 1
1. Vermont
Key Returners: Ryan Davis, Ben Shungu, Justin Mazzulla, Isaiah Powell, Tomas Murphy, Bailey Patella, Robin Duncan
Key Losses: Stef Smith
Key Newcomers: Kam Gibson (Western Carolina), Finn Sullivan (San Diego)
Lineup:
Outlook: The Catamounts have been spoiled under John Becker, who’s taken Vermont to the promise land three of the last five seasons. Last year, a false start (read: COVID cancelled non-conference) left the presumed America East frontrunners vulnerable, culminating in a brutal home loss in the America East Championship Semifinals.
Now, a return to the status quo has the Catamounts locked and loaded for revenge. Most of Becker’s 2020 crew wants another bite at the NCAA Tournament apple, which, in a normal year, would be enough to pencil in VT as the America East favorite. But just do a quick scan of the rosters up and down this preview. The standard for ‘good’ has been lifted, raised by the one-time bonus year and an unprecedented influx of top-notch transfer talent. Becker, wisely, avoided complacency, adding key reinforcements to an already stout nucleus.
If healthy, and that’s a ginormous ‘if’, Kam Gibson may go down as the America East’s top summer catch. Few witnessed Gibson’s dazzling performance as a rookie down in Western Carolina back in 2019. He poured in 14 points a game for the ‘other Catamounts’, carving up older SoCon defenders with ease. The freshman Gibson was efficient as a high-usage alpha dog – that efficiency this year, playing 2nd and 3rd fiddle to Ben Shungu and Justin Mazzula, respectively, could soar in the America East playground.
Shungu, Mazzula and Gibson, regardless of how their roles shake out, will form one of the top backcourt trios in the conference. Mazzula’s size and burst against generic America East defenders is an unfair fight, as the former West Virginia transfer gets to the cup at will.
That leaves Shungu, who now slides into first chair of the Vermont perimeter symphony in the wake of Stef Smith’s departure. Shungu’s fresh off his best season in a Catamount uniform, posting his best all-around statline in both counting stats and percentages. Like Mazzula, Shungu’s a powerful slasher, and makes a living at the charity stripe. He’s an adequate long-range shooter, too, but driving and facilitating are his fortes.
For Shungu, the context of last year’s improvement is notable. Becker made the savvy decision to flip flop Shungu and Smith positionally – Smith took over at point while Shungu slid off the ball. This year, Shungu will take back partial ownership of Smith’s responsibilities last year. While this isn’t a back-breaking demand, Shungu’s conditioning will be put through the ringer, especially when factoring in his dogged defense. As the Catamounts’ lone All-Defensive team member last year, Shungu will draw taxing assignments guarding the opposing team’s top perimeter threat on the other end. He’s got help, yes, but Shungu’s multi-dimensional value is why he’s an indispensable cog in the Vermont machine.
Bailey Patella, Robin Duncan and San Diego transfer Finn Sullivan will jockey for perimeter minutes behind the Shungu / Mazzula / Gibson triumvirate. The fact that this accomplished trio is vying for time at the 4th guard spot speaks volumes about Becker’s depth. Sullivan’s deadeye marksmanship will pair nicely with Shungu and Mazzula’s dribble penetration.
Duncan, the latest offspring of the royal Duncan bloodline, has yet to live up his esteemed namesake – perhaps the sharpshooting Sullivan can teach him how to shoot. Patella is a token hustle hound off the bench with an affection for doing the dirty work. He’s been a fixture in the rotation for three straight years, so he’s not going anywhere.
Despite the surplus of guards and wings, all roads run through Ryan Davis up front. The double-double machine is back for more after a torrent run through the America East last year. Becker fed him early and often, a proper reward after Davis proved his worth as Anthony Lamb’s successor.
Becker tailors Davis’ touches to meet his comfort zone and skill strengths, just as he did with Lamb. While Becker deployed Lamb all over the floor (perimeter catches, mid post faceups, etc.), he prefers to plant Davis in the low post – notice the recent evolution of Vermont’s offense with Davis as the fulcrum, compared to Lamb:
However, as Davis continues to broaden his skillset, that play chart may diversify in 2022. Davis drilled 42% from downtown on 41 attempts in last year’s shortened season, a precursor to his expanding perimeter game:
Behind Davis are two nomadic, yet talented, journeymen. Tomas Murphy and Duncan Demuth would love to re-write the script of their collegiate careers, as injuries have stunted their respective growth. Still, they have a place and a purpose on this team. Even though they’re injury prone, having two viable backups diversifies that injury risk away. In other words, it’s unlikely they both miss a significant stretch of time simultaneously.
Behind Murphy and Demuth waits the hopeful Georges Lefebvre, one of Becker’s few underclassmen bigs. Becker downplayed his impact in Blue Ribbon’s summer preview, but Lefebvre was apparently a blinding bright spot on both ends of the floor in Vermont’s mid-October open scrimmage. Of the lesser-known returners, Lefebvre’s the best bet to catapult into the rotation.
Isaiah Powell, a wing / forward tweener, made that leap last year, and is slated to start alongside Davis in the front court for the second year in a row. Aaron Deloney was another standout in the October scrimmage. If he can light it up from long distance consistently, Becker may be tempted to throw him into the mix early on.
Long-term, Becker continues to up the ante in terms of athleticism. He called Evan Guillory and Sam Alamutu two of the best athletes he’s ever recruited. Neither are in store for high leverage minutes this year but they could be household names down the road.
Bottom Line: Vermont isn’t our preseason America East champion by default. On paper, this Vermont team falls somewhere between the Anthony Lamb teams (2018-2020) and the ‘non-Lamb’ squads before then (2012-2016).
Translated, that’s a really, really good team, folks. You are free to sell your soul to Stony Brook’s star-studded newcomer class or the coaching / experience combination seen in Hartford, UMBC and New Hampshire. As for me, well, I’ll be standing over in John Becker’s corner.
2. Stony Brook
Key Returners: Juan Felix Rodriguez, Frankie Policelli, Jaden Sayles, Tykei Greene, Omar Habwe, Tyler Stephenson-Moore, Mohamed Diallo
Key Losses: Mouhamadou Gueye
Key Newcomers: Jahlil Jenkins (Fairleigh Dickinson), Elijah Olaniyi (Miami FL), Anthony Roberts (Bonaventure), Tanahj Pettway (JUCO)
Lineup:
Outlook: Geno Ford evaded the expectations pressure his first two seasons as Stony Brook’s headmaster. Ford managed to convince enough of the Jeff Boals leftovers to stick around in 2020 (Elijah Olaniyi, Andrew Garcia, Makale Foreman), and parlayed that into a silver medal his first year at the helm. Good start.
Last year, however, was a struggle. Adversity snuck up on the Seawolves during the dog days of conference play, as Stony Brook watched a 4-0 start evaporate into thin air. They slowly trickled down the standings before winding up in 7th place when it was all said and done.
Ford was left to wonder what the season could’ve looked like without damning extraneous circumstances, including an inequitable COVID adjusted schedule and numerous minor injuries. This season, those excuses will be fickle at best, as Ford boasts a roster so captivating that many are penciling in the Seawolves as the preseason favorites. Yes, even ahead of Vermont.
Make no mistake about it. This is the deepest roster in the league. Not even Vermont or UMBC or Hartford bring the firepower off the bench that Ford has at his disposal this year. For instance, Omar Habwe, once a part-time starter, may be relegated to the 3rd or 4th guy off the pine this season.
Ford’s transfer trifecta, Elijah Olaniyi, Jahlil Jenkins and Anthony Roberts, will test the resiliency of a few established incumbents.
Roberts and Olaniyi are thoroughbred scorers, the latter of which needs no introduction to Stony Brook fans, or the America East at large. Olaniyi proved he could swim with the big fish in the ACC last year, but now returns to the northeast corridor with a conference title belt in his crosshairs.
From a positional need perspective, Jahlil Jenkins may be the biggest help of the new arrivals. The surehanded maestro should be a fast-acting antidote to two of the Seawolves’ obtrusive flaws last year: shooting and ball security. Jenkins’ assist-to-turnover rate worsened in each of his last two seasons, but he held a stellar 2:1 clip during his first two years. The stars are aligned for Jenkins to recapture that efficiency he showed as an underclassman. He doesn’t need to be ‘the guy’ anymore, as he was the last two seasons in Teaneck.
Jenkins’ arrival will also make Juan Felix Rodriguez’s life a helluva lot easier. JFR’s running mate last year, Jordan McKenzie, was a net negative on offense, offering Rodriguez minimal support in the backcourt. He’s salivating at the notion of riding shotgun next to Jenkins, a true gamebreaker at the point guard position.
It’s time to toot Frankie Policelli’s horn, one of my favorite players in the America East. My guy deserves a mulligan for his late season struggles last year, as Policelli labored through an injury down the stretch. I’m still hypnotized by his buttery smooth, southpaw touch and his inside-out versatility potential.
However, his erratic play in the opening round of the America East tournament was a microcosm of Stony Brook’s shooting and decision-making shortcomings all year long. As a team, Stony tallied a whopping 21 giveaways in that defeat and made just 3 of their 19 attempts from long distance.
External hires and rejuvenated health should naturally buoy the offense this year but the bedrock of this program, defense, may need some renovation. Losing Mo Gueye, a long-limbed, fleet-footed guardian, could create a cavernous hole in Stony Brook’s defensive armor. Here’s a fun stat: Gueye blocked five or more shots in seven separate games last year. The league’s top shot-swatter can’t be replaced by any one player, so Ford will have to do so collectively.
For starters, last year’s advanced on / off splits, per hooplens.com, tell an encouraging tale. The Seawolves’ defensive efficiency with Gueye off the floor last year was nearly identical to when he played. Granted, there’s many layers of nuance in this underlying data and we can all agree Stony Brook will miss his services. Still, it’s positive sign that Stony’s defense is far from doomed heading into 2022.
Jayden Sales, Gueye’s burly brethren up front last year, is back to man the middle. His defensive awareness is imperative to keeping the restricted area on lock down. He’ll have help, too, with Mo Diallo and Tykei Greene, two athletic wings that will get plenty of run as Sales’ deputy defender.
Bottom Line: Talent wise, Ford’s ahead of the America East curve. The question, and underlying challenge, is how Ford plans to weld these individual forces into a collective force field. Vermont’s established identity, especially on offense, is what distinguishes the Catamounts from the Seawolves, precisely why we have Stony Brook pegged as the silver medal recipient.
Tier 2
3. UMBC
Key Returners: Darnell Rogers, L.J. Owens, Keondre Kennedy, Dimitri Spasojevic
Key Losses: Brandon Horvath, RJ Eytle-Rock
Key Newcomers: Ray Salnave (DePaul), Hakim Byrd (Marist), Tre Edwards*** (Akron), Anyang Garang*** (Oklahoma), Yaw Obeng-Mensah (JUCO)
***Anyang Garang and Tre Edwards will miss the season after suffering severe injuries this offseason
Lineup:
Outlook: Ryan Odom, the America East’s famed giant slayer, has found a new kingdom. The Retrievers will remember his tenure fondly, as they should, but the time for nostalgic reflection is up. New program director Jim Ferry sees the myriad of league challengers charging fast. Any slippage could relinquish UMBC’s hard earned spot at the top of the America East pantheon.
Ferry was once the man at LIU Brooklyn, where he parlayed two back-to-back NCAA Tournament berths into a promotion at Duquesne. There, however, Ferry stalled out, failing to move the needle during his six years in Pittsburgh. Granted, I implore you to name one coach who’s emphatically ‘succeeded’ at Duquesne, which hasn’t made the NCAA Tournament since 1977.
Last year, as an interim stand in for Pat Chambers at Penn State, Ferry led the Nittany Lions to an 11-14 overall record. That sub-500 record may look like an eyesore, but again, it hardly tells the whole story. Ferry amassed several impressive wins along the way (VCU, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Wisconsin) and pushed the Nittanies into the top-50 of KenPom’s overall rankings, a net improvement from Penn State’s preseason projection.
Get the picture? The big picture. Ferry’s career resume, while lacking in monumental achievements, is far more impressive than the surface level records indicate. He’s fared quite well under relatively tough circumstances, inheriting two programs that were ‘small fish in big ponds’. At UMBC, that’s no longer the case.
In the bruising Big Ten boxing ring, Ferry unleashed his ideal style of play in a sort of watered down ‘safe mode’. He’s foaming at the mouth to implement his helter-skelter style full bore in Baltimore, as laid out in his introductory press conference this summer. Behind the repeated encouragement of athletic director Brian Barrio, Ferry, proudly, stated his vision:
“We’re going to be the aggressor in everything we do — the guys are going to love playing this style of basketball. It’s going to be up-tempo. It’s going to be fast. We’re going to be playing with great pace,” Ferry said, as documented by the Baltimore Sun. “We’re going to defend with toughness and aggressiveness. This league is a great league — great players, great coaches — you have to defend with great toughness to give yourself a chance to win in this basketball league.”
To make this come to life, Ferry needs a band of backcourt mates who are born to run. This year, he’ll trot out a perimeter foursome that’s part old, part new. Darnell Rogers and L.J. Owens represent the old guard, while Ray Salnave and Hakim Byrd are the outsiders. Rogers and Owens go together like peanut butter and jelly, as Rogers’ electric playmaking is complemented by Owens’ steady floor game. Owens’ 6-3 frame also offsets the miniature Rogers – though, that small frame certainly doesn’t inhibit Rogers from being a pest on the defensive end.
Good on Byrd, the Marist transfer, for escaping John Dunne’s dungeon of anti-fun basketball (kidding, John, you did a real nice job last year). We’ll see what kind of gear Byrd has in this new playground, but we know what he’ll bring from a defensive standpoint.
Salnave, the former Monmouth star-turned-DePaul afterthought, knows a thing or two about high-octane offenses. He played in one of the fastest 30 offenses in America back in 2020 under the speed-obsessed King Rice. Salnave’s undergone many role renovations during his time at Monmouth and DePaul, which exemplifies his fungibility as a plug-and-play perimeter piece. That said, Rogers will likely have the rock in his hands most of the time, so Salnave needs to cozy up to an off-ball role – or at minimum, a point guard time share with Rogers.
As a unit, this foursome can flat go. Rogers, Salnave and Byrd will look like colliding pucks on an air hockey table in Ferry’s renegade offense, while Owens will serve as a calming, neutralizing presence.
The most captivating incumbent may be Keondre Kennedy, a jack-of-all-trades type wing renowned for his defensive versatility and offensive unselfishness. Put differently, Kennedy’s the classic intangible glue guy whose value supersedes his statistics. However, with the impending regime change, Kennedy’s fit and role are a question mark.
Ferry wants to weaponize the 3-point shot by scattering shooters all over the floor. For all of Kennedy’s strengths, outside shooting is not one of them – at least, not since he arrived at UMBC. As astutely pointed out by the UMBC corner of BasketballForum.com (I have a comprehensive list of CBB fan forums and this one is up there with the best), Kennedy canned 41% from bonus land on over 170 attempts in his last JUCO season, right before arriving at Baltimore. Juxtapose that next to his career 29% conversion rate at UMBC – things that make you go, huh?
It’s unlikely Kennedy magically morphs back into the lights out shooter he was at JUCO, but that precedent is an encouraging sign an impending improvement is coming. Byrd and Salnave will look to boost their shooting precision as well – at least, closer to Rogers and Owens’ standards. In summary, this is a high-voltage backcourt that should feast in Ferry’s up-and-down pace, but the aggregate shooting prowess of this perimeter group will be put under the microscope. That especially rings true in this conference, where slower, half-court, drag out type games are the norm.
I was thrilled to learn Dimitri Spasojevic would be sticking around for the Ferry regime. My affection for ‘Spaz’ conveniently ignores his free throw shooting incompetence, but he’s a stout, steady big with reliable touch and great vision. Ferry likely won’t play inside-out through Spaz, but Spaz’s passing ability makes it a possibility in spot possessions.
Behind ‘Spaz’, Ferry will need to get creative with his frontcourt rotation. Brandon Horvath is the obvious loss, but the Retrievers also lost Daniel Akin, a productive, physical forward (when healthy). Despite Akin’s fragility, he was a man child inside. Ferry also lost two depth boosting transfers, Anyang Garang and Tre Edwards, to season ending injuries, leaving JUCO product Yaw Obeng-Mensah as the likely fill in by default. ‘YOM’ is a thunderous rim rocker with enticing longer-term potential but he’s more ‘raw project’ than ‘finished product’ as this juncture.
Bottom Line: Ryan Odom was the man, the myth, the legend in Retriever country, and was long overdue for a serious payday. The net impact of the Ferry-for-Odom swap remains to be seen, but Odom is a tough act to follow. Ferry proved he can commandeer a team within the constructs of his system last year, which exudes optimism about his chances of keeping UMBC at the top of the America East totem pole. He’s certainly got the perimeter horses to play at the warp speed he desires.
4. New Hampshire
Key Returners: Nick Guadarrama, Jayden Martinez, Blondeau Tchoukuiengo, Qon Murphy, Nick Johnson, Josh Hopkins
Key Losses: Marque Maultsby
Key Newcomers: Marco Foster (Division-II), Sloan Seymour (George Washington)
Lineup:
Outlook: Death, taxes and disciplined man-to-man defense at New Hampshire. Bill Herrion has no time for tricks or gimmicks. Anything that could jeopardize his team’s ability to box out and secure the rebound is a non-starter for Mr. Herrion, the baron of the boards.
Herrion’s rebounding resume is rather astounding. Last year, UNH finished 8th in the country in defensive rebounding rate, per KenPom – for those keeping track, that’s now six of the last seven seasons the Wildcats finished inside the top-10 nationally in that department.
2022 should be business as usual. Herrion’s sterling track record, coupled with the return of Nick Guadarrama, Jayden Martinez and Tayler Mattos, should collectively uphold one of the sturdiest defensive backbones in the America East. They’ll serve as the defensive secondary behind a towering backcourt, which, for the exception of 6’2 Blondeau Tchoukuiengo, all stand 6’4 or taller. The Wildcats, curiously, took a step back defensively last year but the interior core is unchanged from 2020, when UNH finished 4th in the America East in adjusted defensive efficiency. I’d bet the Wildcats sling shot back into the top-3 this year, as Herrion continues to groom last year’s inexperienced backcourt.
Though not known for offensive fireworks, UNH will be crafty on this end of the floor, too. Guadarrama and Martinez are indispensable here, both of whom are tailor-made for Herrion’s inverted offense. The clip below is Guadarrama, or ‘Guada-daddy’ as we call him, in his element. He can throw his weight around deep in the paint against leaner bigs, but Herrion likes to stretch him out to the mid-post, which amplifies the interior spacing:
Not many teams can say their best shooters play the 4 and 5 positions, but Guadarrama and Martinez hold that claim for New Hampshire. Martinez exploded last year, transforming into a reliable inside-out, multi-level scorer. Guadarrama, on the other hand, just kept cruising in his typical robotic fashion. He’s a model of consistency and an exemplar for why skill and smarts can overcome athletic deficiencies.
Hey, I’m not saying Guadarrama is molasses slow, but he likely won’t be headlining a dunk contest anytime soon.
The Wildcats finished in the middle of the America East pack in terms of 3-point shooting last season, but Herrion was unsatisfied. In the portal, he tagged a premier marksman in Sloan Seymour, the epitome of a catch-and-shoot specialist. Even though Seymour is a one trick pony, he might emerge as the best pure shooter in the league.
D-II import Marco Foster infuses more versatility to the mix and adds another able floor spacer to the backcourt (he eclipsed the 40%-mark last season from bonus land). At 6’3, Foster’s one of the smaller guards on the roster but he’s just tall enough to ride this roller coaster.
While big in stature, the UNH guards are often overshadowed in Herrion’s offensive system. Most of the action runs through Guadarrama, who doubles as a key facilitator, and the guards simply serve as filler pieces on the perimeter.
This guard unit, however, offers both steady experience and youthful upside. Qon Murphy is the elder statesman. He’s a streaky 6’5 swingman capable of heating up in a hurry and flipping a game by himself (see last year’s game against Stony Brook). Herrion, finally, relegated Marque Maultsby to the pine in favor of Murphy late in the year, so Murphy should pick up right where he left off.
Nick Johnson is the young gun destined for stardom, one year removed from claiming the America East Freshman of the Year honors. He’s quickly becoming a marked man on the scouting report, alongside fellow sophomore running mate Blondeau Tchoukuiengo.
The quicker this duo becomes comfortable in pick-n-roll action, the better. Ball screen action has become a focal point of Herrion’s offensive playbook in recent years. If they can embrace and master the art of ball screen initiation, this action should create more driving lanes for Johnson and Tchoukuiengo to attack the goal, which is where they make their pay. Neither can shoot, unfortunately, but they excel at getting to the line. As an aside, Johnson should enroll in Tchoukuiengo’s ‘Free Throws for Dummies’ course – the latter converted 85% from the charity stripe, nearly 40 points higher than Johnson (47%)!
Bottom Line: Defensively, the Wildcats should be outstanding. The sheer size of UNH’s guards will be a maze for opposing guards to navigate and both Guadarrama and Martinez are reliable paint patrollers behind them. It all comes down to offense, as it usually does for Herrion. Did the transfer additions move the needle? From a pure shooting lens, yes, but the bigger domino is how far Johnson and Tchoukuiengo leap forward in their highly anticipated sophomore seasons. If one, or both, can become a consistent playmaker or shotmaker, the sky is the limit for Herrion’s Wildcats.
5. Hartford
Key Returners: Moses Flowers, Austin Williams, Hunter Marks, DJ Mitchell
Key Losses: Traci Carter, Miroslav Stafl
Key Newcomers: Dejuan Clayton (Coppin St.), Jared Kimbrough (La Salle), David Shriver (D-II)
Lineup:
Outlook: The defending America East Tournament champs are about to embark on one of the oddest, weirdest, strangest seasons in college basketball history. Hartford is set to kick off its highly anticipated 2022 encore campaign, riding high off last year’s improbable run to postseason glory, but no matter where they go, or how high they fly, a gloomy cloud of impending relegation will follow.
Yes, Hartford athletics is staring down the barrel at a potential demotion from Division-I to Division-III. Head coach John Gallagher and other Hawk purists are at odds with administrative leaders over the impending move, stemming from COVID-related budget shortfalls. Behind the scenes, drama stemming from this tug-of-war has escalated into a comedic stalemate. Here’s one wild example: As detailed out by Dom Amore in the Hartford Courant, Hartford isn’t even selling tickets, yet, and is operating without a box office (at least, it was at the time of the report).
Gallagher, devoutly loyal to his beloved employer, has made it abundantly clear he won’t abandon ship if, and, when Hartford officially pulls the D-I plug. That authenticity is how he convinced a sizable chunk of last year’s contributors to stick around.
There you have it. All the ingredients for an EPSN 30-for-30 are on the table. As far as the ending, well, a repeat Hawks championship and in walk-off fashion would be one for the ages, wouldn’t it?
The competitive landscape around the America East is cutthroat, per usual, but the field feels especially wide open this year. Vermont is Vermont, sure, but there’s no Anthony Lamb walking through that door and Stef Smith could prove to be a devastating loss (though, he was not his usual self last year). Stony Brook has talent but lacks the institutional success of Vermont, while UMBC is undergoing a coaching change, too. In short, the door could be ajar for the Hawks to swoop in for a repeat.
Gallagher would love a clean bill of health from Moses Flowers, who was a non-factor during last season’s late charge. As a rookie, prior to busting his hip, Flowers showcased his incendiary scoring ability. On this defensive minded team, which is oft times offensively challenged, Flowers individual shot making prowess will be a refreshing remedy to extended scoring droughts.
DeJuan Clayton will step in Traci Carter’s stead as the primary perimeter playmaker and defensive demon. Clayton was a monster at Coppin State, where he assimilated nicely alongside a hodgepodge of transfers. He’s a passer first, scorer second, which should bode well for his integration here at Hartford. Clayton’s only flaw is his shooting ineptitude, an area in which Carter excelled. Defensively, few are as dominant as Carter was, but Clayton’s quickness will make him a decent stand in on this end as well.
DJ Mitchell, who was helped off the court a mere second into the Hawks’ opening round NCAA Tournament game against Baylor, is back to help alleviate some of the shooting concerns. The Hawks couldn’t buy a basket from long distance last year, but Mitchell’s 39% career conversion rate is reputable enough to keep defenses honest. Gallagher is also gushing over D-II import David Shriver, another prolific sharpshooter. Finally, Austin Williams, the star of the America East Tournament, rounds out the backcourt rotation. When the game is on the line, there’s no secret where the rock is going…
The Hawks’ stifling man to man defense will continue to hug opponent’s airspace on the perimeter – though, Carter’s loss can’t be underscored enough in this regard – which requires the supporting forwards to always be on high alert. Hunter Marks and Jared Kimbrough will act as the last line of defense in this regard. Kimbrough, a La Salle import, is more physically imposing than his predecessor Miroslav Stafl, but the advanced on / off splits from his time in the A-10 portray him as a net negative defensively. I’m calling ‘BS’ on those splits, though, as Kimbrough was bothered by injuries and never hit his stride. In the America East, he’s well equipped to emerge as one of the top rim wardens in the league.
Bottom Line: If you’re looking for an America East bandwagon to hop on in 2022, this is your carriage. Gallagher somehow warped a talented nucleus into staying put, despite a potential impending move to D-III. If Gallagher and the Hawks can block out all the excess noise permeating in the background, the Hawks will be in the mix for a second straight trip to the dance. UMBC, New Hampshire and Hartford may sit a notch below Vermont and Stony Brook, but a regular season championship is still an attainable goal for these three ‘Tier 1 hopefuls’.
6. Albany
Key Returners: Jamel Horton, Jarvis Doles, Brent Hank, Adam Lulka, Chuck Champion, Will Amica
Key Losses: Antonio Rizzuto, CJ Kelly, Kellon Taylor
Key Newcomers: Matt Cerruti (D-II), Justin Neely, De'Vondre Perry (Temple), Paul Newman (Bucknell), Gerald Drumgoole (Pitt), Ny'Mire Little, Aaron Reddish
Lineup:
Outlook: It’s a bummer to see Will Brown hang up the clipboard. Brown, who’s been been synonymous with Albany basketball for as long as I can remember, severed ties with his former employer, framed as ‘a mutual parting of ways’.
To the casual fan, the Danes’ deteriorating performance over the last three years justifies a coaching audible. However, that omits the necessary context. The first two seasons, an onslaught of injuries. Last year, an outlier COVID season. Remember the once promising youth movement that debuted in 2019, headlined by Cam Healy, Antonio Rizzuto and Adam Lulka? Imagine a world in which they all stayed healthy. Could they have fulfilled their original prophecy?
Yet, even with a fractured roster core, Brown kept the Danes afloat through the storm, scraping his way to a 20-24 America East record over the last three seasons. This isn’t up to snuff for a program as prideful as Albany, but it was still a raw deal for Brown. He departs in good standing with the Albany community, exemplified in an open letter to former players, coaches and fans thanking them for their support.
In steps Dwayne Killings, a longtime assistant and fixture in the northeast corridor of the country (Philly, specifically). Killings served under Fran Dunphy at Temple, then Kevin Ollie at UConn, then Steve Wojciechowski at Marquette. Talk about a tutor variety pack. There’s no shared stylistic identity amongst Killings’ former bosses. This, in turn, makes it tough to extrapolate which levers he’ll pull on offense and defense.
An open scrimmage in mid-October gave eager patrons a first peek at the new look Danes. If the flow from that exhibition is any indication of what we’ll see in 2022, Killings will open the fast break floodgates. Brown, who once relied on deliberate half-court sets, dialed up the pace last year, but Killings will take the tempo to supersonic speeds.
The skill and talent level remain strong, key ingredients for engaging in an up-and-down affair. That’s a viable personnel and style match long-term, but in the short-term, acclimating to this pace won’t be easy.
De’Vondre Perry, unsurprisingly, shined the brightest in Albany’s intrasquad scrimmage. He’s lab created for Killings, who denounces the notion of players being pigeonholed in to one position. Perry can post up smaller defenders on the block, or lure larger forwards away from the paint and torch them from the perimeter. Up front, he’ll be joined by another nimble forward, Jarvis Doles, along with paint protector Paul Newman.
Killings instantly formed a connection with Philly bred sharpshooter Matt Cerruti, one of the first recruits to sign up for the new Albany regime. Cerruti was planning to finish out his basketball career as a D-II star, before testing his luck professionally overseas, but COVID promptly ruined that. Cerruti’s D-II conference pulled the plug on the 2021 season, reshuffling the deck on his preliminary plans. Ultimately, the Philly connection gave Killings the inside track to secure Cerutti, who’s incrementally improved into a lethal all-around guard since graduating high school. He’ll help in a variety of ways, but 3-point shooting is his calling card. Here’s Cerruti’s 3-point field goal percentages from 2018 through 2020: 39%, 43% and 46%.
Jamel Horton will play butler, responsible for feeding Cerruti and several lesser-known reserves and rookies. Chuck Champion, Will Amica and Gerald Drumgoole comprise the remainder of the experienced perimeter posse, but they’ll have to fend off a loaded freshmen class to earn big minutes this season.
Aaron Reddish’s 3-star label earns him the first mention by default. He’s still rounding out the edges of his skillset, but he’s a pro-level athlete with a world of potential. Justin Neely and Ny'Mire Little, on the other hand, look ready to contribute immediately. Neely is a force of nature, checking in at 6’5 200 pounds – can someone check his birth certificate? Neely does a little bit of everything, and his dazzling performance this offseason could fast track him to a starting job right away.
The diehard attendees of the Purple and Gold scrimmage cited Little, the least heralded of the group, as the most impressive freshman on the floor. The lead guard may be on the backburner until Horton departs but expect him to be a key cog for years to come.
Bottom Line: Killings worked his extensive northeast network to land an impressive haul of newcomers. They’re probably a year or two away from challenging Vermont and the heavy hitters for an outright title but the Danes seem poised to skip the quintessential ‘transition year’, thanks to the strong crop of additions Killings injected this summer.
Tier 3
7. UMass Lowell
Key Returners: Connor Withers, Kalil Thomas, Allin Blunt, Max Brooks, Anthony Blunt
Key Losses: Obadiah Noel, Bryce Daley
Key Newcomers: Ayinde Hikim (La Salle), Everette Hammond (USC Upstate)
Lineup:
Outlook: Heading into last season, UMass Lowell had my curiosity. A star in Obadiah Noel plus a sterling crop of sophomores entering that pivotal second year development window. On paper, the River Hawks looked ripe for a breakthrough.
Then, they got my attention. Not even a week into the 2021 campaign, Lowell squared off against Ohio State. At that point, they had already bounced San Francisco in their first game of the year. My spidey-senses finally kicked in after watching 10 minutes of that MTE tilt against the Buckeyes.
This UMass Lowell squad is no joke.
Ohio State’s bevy of bigs dwarfs 99% of mid and low major frontlines. Yet, in that early non-conference tune up, the Buckeyes couldn’t bully the River Hawks like they usually do. Lowell ultimately fell short but never gave an inch to a top-10 team in America.
Props to Pat Duquette. He’s elevated UMass Lowell out of the D-II trenches, exemplified in the caliber of player he runs through this program year in and year out. Look no further than Noel.
Fresh off an impressive campaign, in which the River Hawks fell just shy of the NCAA Tournament goal line, Duquette must now build off that momentum. Duquette’s got his work cut out for him to meet the new standard of excellence in Lowell. Not only does he lose Noel but Bryce Daley, who came to the rescue during Noel’s brief absence in February, will not be returning to the hardwood, either. Fittingly, it looks as if injuries will abruptly end Daley’s career.
One of those two would prop the River Hawks up a spot or two in our projected standings but the cupboard is far from bare. Three starters return and two newcomers, Ayinde Hikim (La Salle) and Everette Hammond (USC Upstate) are ‘starter-plus’ caliber. Call me a sucker for speed, but boy I was googly-eyed over Hikim when I first laid eyes on him at La Salle. Duquette must share that same affection, tagging Hikim as the successor to Noel and Daley – those aren’t small shoes to fill. Hikim’s ‘all gas no brakes’ mentality will send shockwaves through the America East, college basketball’s version of a retirement community from a tempo perspective (the America East consistently ranks among the slowest leagues in the country, per KenPom).
Last year, the molasses paced America East sucked Lowell into quicksand. The River Hawks curbed their typical feverish tempo to a moderate one, the slowest since the program’s elevation to Division-I. If that retirement community analogy resonates, think of Hikim as the punk teenager who drives too fast through the neighborhood. The pinball point guard is a jet in the open floor, in constant pursuit of open seams.
However, there’s a reason Hikim bounced from the A-10 to the A-East. Devoid of a jump shot and marred by recurring turnover woes, he fell out of fashion at La Salle. He now seeks resurrection against weaker competition.
Hikim won’t light up the scoreboard, but his new running mates could. Hammond, the USC Upstate import, is a bonafide bucket acquirer. He has experience shouldering a heavy scoring load and adds a proven double-digit scorer to the equation.
Neither Hammond nor Hikim can shoot, though, which is where D-II transfer Justin Faison comes in. The North Carolina product shot 38% last year from bonus land. On top of Kalil Thomas, a burgeoning breakout candidate, the River Hawks boast two knockdown shooters in high leverage roles. Anthony Blunt, an All-Rookie team member last season, caught fire down the stretch – he’s also on the precipice of major leap forward in 2022.
There’s a fascinating dynamic set to unfold between Hikim / Hammond and stud swingman Connor Withers. Withers came in as a twig in 2019 but Duquette immediately found a spot for his innate shooting touch. Last year, the passing, playmaking, rebounding and shot blocking all came to the forefront, too, signs of Withers’ evolution into a complete player.
Duquette basically punted on using a conventional ‘center’ last year, as Withers simply masqueraded as the River Hawks’ 5-man. He’s the antithesis of a traditional ‘5’ on offense but he can play the part defensively.
The rest of the roster is littered with similar co-positional wing / forwards, all standing between 6’6 – 6’7. The group includes Max Brooks, another All-Rookie recipient, Allin Blunt older brother of Anthony, plus Darion Jordan-Thomas and Gregory Hammond. That ‘troop of tweeners’ underpinned a stout defensive squad last year, Duquette’s best since 2015.
We often beat the ‘don’t overreact to the postseason’ drum but the River Hawks’ America East run felt different (read: sustainable). In other words, this was not a fluke or a team miraculously playing over their heads. The previously mentioned non-conference efforts against San Francisco and Ohio State proved they could hang with anyone, anywhere, anytime.
Bottom Line: This is a deep roster with inside-out balance and versatility, both of which offset the glaring void of a traditional 5-man up front. The transfer twofer, Hikim and Hammond, will keep defenses honest and alleviate the scoring burden on Withers, and the defense shapes up to be another stout unit. Lowell’s got the chops to creep up into Tier 2, but the America East is simply loaded this year.
8. NJIT
Key Returners: Antwuan Butler, Dylan O'Hearn, Miles Coleman, Souleymane Diakite, Mekhi Gray, Kjell de Graaf
Key Losses: Zach Cooks, San Antonio Brinson
Key Newcomers: Matt Faw (Holy Cross), James Lee (JUCO)
Lineup:
Outlook: A new conference. An undetected style. A star in the making.
The stars were aligned for a breakout year in Newark. The Highlanders transitioned to a geographically friendly conference, one that didn’t require multi-hour flights for every road game. They brought back a scintillating super star in Zach Cooks. And, they had the element of surprise working in their favor, a subtle edge we’ve seen provide a boost to new conference participants across the country.
The analytics saw the signs, too. KenPom started NJIT inside the top-200 last season, a lofty ranking for any America East program, much less NJIT.
Did Brian Kennedy and company miss their window? A 7-12 record would be palatable if Kennedy deployed a young, underclassmen-laden roster with miles of headroom for growth. Unfortunately, Cooks is gone, as is his forward bookend, San Antonio Brinson, which will set the Highlanders back a year while the rest of the league climbs higher.
There’s no way to dance around it. Cooks was the center of NJIT’s universe last year. He led the Atlantic Sun and America East in minutes played, respectively, each of the last two seasons. His shot making and durability will be sorely missed.
Kennedy’s mandate to never take Cooks off the floor also makes it challenging to assess what a post Cooks world will look like. There’s no clear-cut Cooks successor amongst the returners, but there may be some untapped value here.
As astutely pointed out by The America East basketball forum community, the Highlanders battled through a myriad of nagging injuries last year. Antwuan Butler, Miles Coleman, Dylan O’Hearn and Souleymane Diakite, four of the Highlanders’ five projected starters, all powered through pain for most of the season. If fully mended, that quartet is destined for major rebounds in 2022.
NJIT should be more balanced than last year’s Cooks-led squad, but Dylan O’Hearn seems poised to become the new ringleader. He was scorching hot to start the 2021 season, but the persistent pain took its toll as the year wore on. Early on, O’Hearn was quietly becoming a monster – don’t be surprised to see these numbers pop up again soon:
Coleman was instant offense off the bench last year and should have no problem sliding into a full-time starter position. Taking his spot in the key reserve unit will be Mehki Gray, an All-Rookie honoree, along with Kjell de Graaf, a fluid, skilled forward from the Netherlands.
The two newcomers should make a big splash in no time.
James Lee was an All-Region player at Salt Lake City Community College, which competed in back-to-back NJCAA Tournaments. His JUCO production (12.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg, and 4.6 apg) coupled with his Monteverde Academy grassroots pedigree, is reason to buy stock in Lee as a potential diamond in the rough amongst all America East newcomers. With all due respect to the incumbents, Lee’s a categorically better talent (I fear I snubbed him from the All-Newcomer team).
Matt Faw, a similar prototype to de Graaf, will be a tough cover for America East forwards. Faw can really sky, as he’s evolved into a savvy shot blocker with sound instincts. Offensively, he’s a complete player, an able shooter, passer, and finisher inside. Put simply, Faw’s the most versatile weapon on this team and should put up monster numbers for a squad searching for offensive production, all while fortifying a tissue soft interior defense from a year ago.
Bottom Line: It’s easy to envision a world in which NJIT sinks to the bottom of the America East standings. Cooks’ replacement value could be as high as any player in the league, and, unlike the Vermonts, UMBCs and Stony Brooks of the world, Kennedy made only minor enhancements to his roster this offseason – that is, unless Faw and Lee go bananas in their first America East rodeo.
Tier 4
9. Maine
Key Returners: Stephane Ingo, LeChaun DuHart, Adefolarin Adetogun, Ja'Shonte Wright-McLeish
Key Losses: Vilgot Larsson, Taylor Schildroth
Key Newcomers: Vukasin Masic (Hofstra), Chris Efretuei (UL Monroe), Maks Klanjscek (JUCO), Peter Filipovity (JUCO), Byron Ireland, Sam Ihekwoaba
Lineup:
Outlook: Arrive late, leave early. That’s proper party attendance protocol.
Maine followed the same script last season. The Black Bears didn’t play a game until December 19th and ultimately pulled the plug a month later. Let’s just act like it never happened, shall we?
Richard Barron’s become a master of deception. The win-loss record will never portray him as a Hall of Famer but he’s yielded more fruit out of this desert of a basketball program than most coaches could. Ultimately, it comes down to recruiting, a delicate domain for this cash-strapped, geographically isolated school.
That said, the talent is slowly starting to trickle in. No, there’s no 5-star blue chippers walking through that door, but the Bears are no longer devoid playmakers and shotmakers.
LeChaun DuHart is one such example. He’s an enthusiastic shooter with NBA range, as displayed in Maine’s only *high profile* non-conference game last year against Boston College. He torched the Golden Eagles with deep daggers on repeat, proving he’s not afraid to take the baton and become ‘the guy’ in 2022:
Stephane Ingo is the other known commodity back, an elastic disruptor up front. Ingo’s keyed Maine’s defense for two consecutive seasons, and did so admirably, despite having minimal support last year. No one in the America East has blocked more shots on a per possession basis over the last two years. Behind Barron’s defensive bag of tricks and Ingo’s pogo-stick hops, the Black Bears could build upon last year’s 6th overall defense.
Throw in 7-footer giant Chris Efretuei, a monster pick up from UL Monroe, and suddenly Maine’s frontline looks like the Great Wall of China. Efretuei’s had trouble staying on the floor consistently throughout his collegiate career, but simply planting him in the belly of the lane disrupts opposing offenses. Barron will likely reward his defensive efforts with a steady diet of low post touches. Barron’s offensive playbook is encyclopedia thick, but many of those sets play inside-out through the post:
On the end of the floor, the playbook is quite meaty, too. Barron’s deceitful defenses, comprised mostly of zone schemes, are a cheeky, yet savvy, ploy to cover up the Bears’ athletic deficiencies – at least, that’s how it was in 2019 and 2020:
The infusion of Ingo and Efretuei narrows this size and athleticism gap considerably. Presumably, we won’t see the zone usage spike back to 2019 levels but it’s unlikely Barron sells his souls for man-to-man entirely, either. Few guards in this conference can outmuscle or outrun returning guard Adefolarin Adetogun, along with rookies Byron Ireland and Sam Ihekwoaba. Adetogun and Ireland look like action figures come to life, while Ihekwoaba is a range spry athlete in his own right.
Ireland, who profiles as a bulldog-type point guard, is an extremely intriguing prospect. It’s hard to see Barron keeping this level of dynamism off the floor:
Bottom Line: After last season’s failure to launch, Barron hopes to turn back the clock to 2020, when the Black Bears tallied nine wins. At this end of the college basketball spectrum, everything’s relative. Relative to this program’s typical track record, coming anywhere close to double digit wins is a monumental achievement. Barron’s offensive trickery should offset the usual talent shortcomings, but this shapes up to be one of the best, if not the best, defensive unit he’s had, largely because it’s the most athletic squad he’s had.
10. Binghamton
Key Returners: Tyler Bertram, George Tinsley, Dan Petcash, Bryce Beamer, Ogheneyole Akuwovo
Key Losses: Thomas Bruce, Brenton Mills
Key Newcomers: John McGriff (St. John's), Jacob Falko (Gardner-Webb), Taveion White (JUCO)
Lineup:
Outlook: Big shouts to Levell Sanders! By my tally, Sanders will kick off the 2021-22 season on his own interim island. No other team in college basketball will go to war with an interim coach at the helm. No pressure, Levell!
Consider this. Last season, there were only two head coach ‘temps’ who started the season with the interim tag: Byron Rimm II and Jim Ferry. Both severed ties from their former employer this summer, but it wasn’t due to poor performance – at least, it shouldn’t have been. Penn State was a top-40 / top-50 team per an aggregate scan of the reputable analytic sites, deserving of an ‘exceeded expectations’ rating. Rimm’s case is weaker, but the Jaguars were trending toward their highest point in nearly three years – still bad, yes, but moving in the right direction.
That’s a roundabout [anecdotal based, cherry picking] way to say, don’t write off Sanders just yet!
However, I am skeptical of his overly utopian vision. In the least shocking development in the history of college basketball prognostication, Sanders wants to play fast, run-and-gun, the whole nine yards.
Does he have the talent to execute this? Methinks no.
This roster is in dire need of offensive horsepower. The John McGriff / Jacob Falko tandem could be prolific, but the cupboard is rather barren outside of that. Falko will be the Bearcats’ rock, a tremendous two-way player with few holes in his game. Once a lauded JUCO prospect, Falko’s a better shooter than he showed last year at Gardner-Webb (30%). He’s not a one trick pony, though. He can get to the goal and finish through contact, which provided a major bump to his efficiency last year.
McGriff is a little lefty with neck-snapping quickness. After being over-recruited at St. John’s, McGriff now has unbounded freedom to do whatever he wants in upstate New York. His speed is what sets him apart, a missing ingredient from last year’s vanilla backcourt.
Tyler Bertram, Dan Petcash, Bryce Beamer and George Tinsley all started at least nine games last year, two of which are about to be relegated to make room for McGriff and Falko. Bertram looks like the most qualified for the vacant third banana role alongside McGriff and Falko on the perimeter. The former Charlotte transfer found his groove down the stretch last year, connecting on 38% from 3-point range against America East competition. Tinsley, a jack-of-all-trade wing, is the odds-on favorite to keep his spot in the rotation as well. Tinsley was the MAAC’s ‘iron man’ in 2020, clocking more minutes than any other player in the conference. Beamer’s another ‘good at everything, great at nothing’ interchangeable piece on the wing.
Defensively, well, Sanders has a long hill to climb. By default, Taveion White will be Sanders’ primary helper on this mission. The 6’8 Clarendon College product is hyperactive around the rim, aided by long limbs and a quick leaping ability. White has the prerequisite tools to be a dependable backstop, but how he’s deployed comes back to Sanders. Will Sanders stick with his former boss’ blueprint (read: zone defense 99.99% of the time) or revert to man-to-man?
Sanders’ coaching philosophy is heavily influenced by his time overseas, which complicates this defensive projection. Regardless of scheme, size should not be an issue for Sanders. White, along with Ogheneyole Akuwovo, are both imposing presences up front. Akuwovo had issues staying on the floor last year but his per possession production was off the charts.
As a partial aside, it’s a shame Thomas Bruce never made a full, uninterrupted recovery. When he returned to the lineup last season, the Bearcats sprung to life, winning three of their final four conference games.
Bottom Line: This doesn’t feel like a last place team, even with a new coach and presumed ‘lay the future foundation’ approach. However, Sanders’ devout commitment to his up-and-down system, while aided by McGriff and Falko, will still be a steep learning curve for the rest of the incumbents and newcomers. Binghamton may have a higher ceiling than any team in Tier 3 or Tier 4 but hitting that mark will require many dominoes to fall neatly in place – and if they don’t, it could go the other direction in a hurry.