3MW’s All Conference Team:
Player of the Year: Quentin Grimes, Jr., Houston
Coach of the Year: Isaac Brown, Wichita State
Newcomer of the Year: Landers Nolley, R So., Memphis
Freshman of the Year: Moussa Cisse, Fr., Memphis
Season Storylines:
First off: check out those preseason standings. Yes, I did well and I’m bragging about it. I have no shame.
BUT… I did not think even a Gregg Marshall-led Wichita State team would win the AAC regular season title. Isaac Brown was the unanimous Coach of the Year pick for good reason; he not only kept the ship afloat when Marshall was let go, he also led a very good basketball team to lofty success. Despite the regular season title the Shockers still likely need to win the conference tournament to reach the Big Dance, a task made harder by the fact they’ll be down at least two unnamed players in the quarterfinals on Friday.
Houston didn’t win the league but it was by far the best team in the American this season and a shoo-in to nab a 2 or 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Coogs currently rank 6th in KenPom, which is 35 spots higher than the next highest ranked AAC squad. This team has no weaknesses: they rank in the top ten of both offensive and defensive efficiency, and they have one of the best coaches in the country roaming the sidelines. My mad March prediction below likely proves to be folly.
Memphis is the best value from a futures perspective to win the AAC Tournament. On paper the Tigers are still one of the most talented teams in the country, they just don’t always score very well. Memphis ranks 2nd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency but just 156th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Penny will need to work on the X’s and O’s to lead his team to the promised land.
SMU and Cincinnati feel like long shots. The Ponies haven’t played a game since February 8th, but they definitely have the talent to make a run. Cincy is dealing with a host of injuries, COVID issues, opt-outs, and who knows what else.
UCF is one of the hotter teams coming into the tournament, winners of its last four games. Darius Perry, CJ Walker, Darin Green, and Brandon Mahan is one heck of a core — if the Knights are fully healthy, they absolutely could play dark horse. South Florida, UCF’s in-state foe, was super-disappointing this year and come into the tourney losers of seven of their last eight contests. Alexis Yetna has been out awhile and David Collins finished the season with an O-rating under 90.0.
I don’t have much faith in Frank Haith and Tulsa making a run, but his Hurricanes have beaten Houston and Memphis this season, so there is a chance.
Tulane, Temple, and East Carolina finished in the basement with South Florida this season. The Owls played just one non-conference game, had injury issues, and featured one of the newest rosters in the country. We can cut Aaron McKie some slack for a so-so year. ECU, however, will not be given any slack. The Pirates ranked #1 in the entire world in returning minutes, rostered one of the best players in the league in Jayden Gardner, and yet couldn’t win more than two games in the AAC. Gross. Tulane was very feisty this season despite finishing 4-12 in league play. The Green Wave are on track for BIG things over the next couple seasons under the watchful eye of Ron Hunter.
Tournament Preview
Tournament Predictions
(9) Temple over (8) South Florida
(7) Tulsa over (10) Tulane
(6) UCF over (11) East Carolina
(1) Wichita State over (9) Temple
(4) SMU over (5) Cincinnati
(2) Houston over (7) Tulsa
(3) Memphis over (6) UCF
(4) SMU over (1) Wichita State
(3) Memphis over (2) Houston
(3) Memphis over (4) SMU