-Jim Root
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Darius McGhee, Sr., Liberty
Coach of the Year: Ritchie McKay, Liberty
Newcomer of the Year: Braxton Beverly, R Sr., Eastern Kentucky
Freshman of the Year: Joseph Venzant, Liberty
Tier 1
1. Liberty
Key Returners: Darius McGhee, Blake Preston, Kyle Rode, Keegan McDowell, Shiloh Robinson, Micaiah Abii, Drake Dobbs
Key Losses: Chris Parker, Elijah Cuffee
Key Newcomers: Joseph Venzant, DJ Moore, Bryson Spell, Brody Peebles
Lineup:
Outlook: The ASUN dominance ticks on like a metronome in Lynchburg, where Ritchie McKay has suffocated the league with his grinding half court style taken straight out of Tony Bennett’s Virginia playbook. Through three years in the league, Liberty is an absurd 38-7 and has won or shared the regular season title in each year. After losing a stacked 2020 senior class, it seemed the conference might have a chance to catch the Flames last year, but instead, they finished 69 spots higher at KenPom than any other league foe (and 140 higher than any postseason-eligible foe).
At this point, it has become more about the system than the individual pieces, but make no mistake: the pieces here are outstanding. Most importantly, Darius McGhee returns as the reigning ASUN Player of the Year, a 5’9 terror with unlimited range and an instantaneous release. His nuclear scoring capabilities have a Steph Curry-esque impact on the way defenses guard the Flames, because he will ruthlessly take advantage of any open space. He’s also forced McKay’s hand in tweaking the offense to his team’s strengths:
The increase in pick-and-roll represents a concerted effort to put McGhee in more dangerous spots, and he rewarded McKay’s faith by ranking in the 98th percentile as a PnR scorer. Though partner-in-crime Chris Parker is gone, that just means more opportunity for Drake Dobbs, himself a budding perimeter star.
Going away from post ups is partially due to the absence of Scottie James, long a fulcrum of the Liberty attack. Thanks to a spread court via shooters like McGhee, Dobbs, Keegan McDowell, and Kyle Rode, the Flames can still play through Blake Preston on the block and expect tangible results: he ranked in the 88th percentile on post ups, per Synergy. He is also a willing passer, exploiting vulnerable defenses that stray too far from the aforementioned snipers.
Rode is the other cornerstone to the Flames’ relentless onslaught. A 6’7 jack-of-all-trades, McKay is more than comfortable feeding Rode at the top of they key or in the high post. From there, he can diagnose defenses as all sorts of screening and cutting happens around him. An 85-to-33 assist-to-turnover ratio from a sophomore big man is no accident, as Rode makes incisive reads and pinpoint passes:
If you lose a shooter, Rode is going to find him. Of course, it also helps to be able to run handoffs with McGhee and let him rain in 25-footers. Nice way to start a game:
I’ll reiterate: McGhee’s limitless range and high, high volume shooting bends defenses in a major way, and his cohorts have figured out how to pick apart the gaps in defenses that result.
Defensively, you know what you’re getting here: pack line principles meant to prevent dribble penetration and dominant defensive rebounding. McKay has stretched out the defensive pressure somewhat in recent years, though, smartly taking away triples in a league flush with skilled long-range bombers. Losing human straight-jacket Elijah Cuffee, the ASUN Defensive Player of the Year, will hurt somewhat, but the scheme and overall discipline of the unit should be able to make up for his impact.
Perhaps the most important part of Liberty’s defensive consistency is a steadfast refusal to surrender transition points. Only Preston goes after the offensive glass, with four Flames bolting behind the ball whenever a shot goes up. Taking excellent care of the rock also helps short-circuit any chances for foes to get out and run.
It’s rarely needed at the pace Liberty plays at, but the Flames have terrific depth, as well. The big man duo of Micaiah Abii and Shiloh Robinson is probably good enough to win the league itself, but both likely remain in reserve roles unless McKay opts for the jumbo package. Abii has all the makings of a stretch big star, and Robinson’s off-the-bounce ability at his size makes him a matchup problem.
Meanwhile, the backcourt depth lacks experience, but it is loaded with future ASUN difference-makers. Joseph Venzant is immediately the best athlete on the roster, bringing all kinds of vertical pop and infinite defensive potential. Brody Peebles was a walking bucket while playing high-level Alabama prep ball. And those guys will struggle to find minutes due to the presence of sophomores Isaiah Warfield, the program’s 2nd-best ever recruit per 247 Sports (Rode is #1), and Jonathan Jackson, both of whom played sparingly last year but have plenty of upside.
Bottom Line: It’s another edition of merciless, meticulous execution for Liberty basketball, and with McGhee around to torture defenses, expect the Flames to remain atop the ASUN standings — even with new challengers entering the fold from the OVC. Liberty’s young but uber-skilled frontcourt should continue to blossom, and if Dobbs and others can fill some of the ball-handling/playmaking void left by Parker’s graduation, then Liberty will not skip a beat. Tune in for some McGhee ball, folks: his size likely prevents him from being a pro, but he’s putting on a weekly show in the ASUN.
2. Jacksonville St.
Key Returners: Jalen Finch, Darian Adams, Brandon Huffman, Kayne Henry, Amanze Nguzemi, Jay Pal, Demaree King, Juwan Perdue
Key Losses: None
Key Newcomers: Jalen Gibbs (Mount St. Mary’s), Caleb Byrd (Charlotte)
Lineup:
Outlook: For YEARS, college basketball fans have been clamoring for the crosstown Jacksonville rivalry, but the schools have long been in different conferences. Thanks to football’s insatiable appetite for money, though, the two are now united in the ASUN, and the city needs to prepare for the seismic battles that are sure to ensue…
Wait, what’s that? This…this is Jacksonville, Alabama? They’re not crosstown rivals? Well fine, but they still need some sort of awesome rivalry name, especially since it’s fun to confuse people!
As the Gamecocks enter a new league, Ray Harper brings a ready-made title contender, one that returns its top eight scorers from a team that would have been the second best in the ASUN last year (per KenPom’s AdjEM). Like most of Harper’s teams at JSU, this one is loaded with transfers, and his Gamecocks are typically bigger and more athletic than their mid-major opponents as a result.
With a frontcourt featuring UNC transfer Brandon Huffman and Georgia transfer Amanze Nguzemi plus super senior Kayne Henry, that will continue. That group can and will overwhelm foes on the offensive glass and at the rim defensively. Harper also has spindly 6’9 forward Jay Pal, a former highly-rated JUCO recruit who had a rocky debut, physical power wing Juwan Perdue, and towering Slovakian center Maros Zeliznak to round out the frontcourt rotation. It’s a physically imposing group with lineup optionality, but the defense still lagged because of a total inability to force turnovers.
Harper’s best defenses feature some perimeter pressure, but for one reason or another, that vanished last season:
That’s not for any lack of athleticism among the backcourt depth chart: the group of Jalen Finch, Darian Adams, and Demaree King has plenty of strength and quickness. Still, adding Jalen Gibbs from Mount St. Mary’s should offer a boost. Gibbs played in an extremely conservative scheme at the Mount, but he has the athleticism and instincts to create some mayhem. Charlotte transfer Caleb Byrd and rising sophomore Semaj Henderson will have a tough time cracking the rotation, but if either one can evolve into a disruptive defender, then Harper’s hand may be forced.
Despite the depth and athleticism strewn across the roster, the strength of this Gamecocks’ squad was actually the offense, primarily due to the way it dominated the paint. Huffman was an unstoppable force in the OVC, and he should continue to be even in a new league. A 255-pound behemoth, Huffman uses his strength and frame to bully opponents into the void below the basket and then finishes over them with touch that belies his immense size:
Mostly due to Huffman, JSU ranked 15th in the entire country in FG% at the rim, per Hoop-Math. Huffman himself led the country:
The next step in his evolution is to add passing to his game: he totaled just seven assists on the entire year, and he had nary a game with more than one helper.
Elsewhere in the frontcourt, Nguzemi was far less effective on the block, but he does bring smooth perimeter touch to the table, and pairing Huffman with him or Henry makes it extremely difficult for foes to send double-teams.
Having stretch bigs complements the deadly perimeter group Harper has assembled, with Finch and King both hovering right around 40% from 3P range for the season. Adams can also hit open jumpers, but he’s most effective as a driver and creator for others, using his stout frame to get into gaps and spray the ball to shooters or draw contact inside. Finch is the true point guard, but Harper often puts the ball in Adams’ hands once in the half court. Gibbs adds yet another capable scorer, though he has yet to prove he can maintain efficiency over the course of a full season. Perhaps playing alongside more talent could be the difference-maker.
The Gamecocks also had a sneaky excellent transition attack last year. Though Harper did not let them run much, they scored in the 95th percentile when they did, with Adams, Finch, King, and Henry all ranking in the 83rd percentile or better. Selectively running proved to be a key part of the JSU attack.
Bottom Line: The Gamecocks enter a new era with sky high potential. The roster is flush with talent and depth, and the inside/out headliners in Huffman and Adams are good enough to lead JSU to a title in its first season. Toppling the current Liberty dynasty will not be easy, though, even with essentially the entire team back from last year plus an impact addition in Gibbs. To do so, the defense needs to progress, or the Gamecocks will be left hoping to salvage “Jacksonville” supremacy from the Florida version.
Tier 2
3. Eastern Kentucky
Key Returners: Curt Lewis, Jomaru Brown (injury), Michael Moreno, Cooper Robb, Devontae Blanton, Tariq Balogun, Russhard Cruickshank
Key Losses: Wendell Green (transfer), Tre King (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Braxton Beverly (NC State), Jannson Williams (Marshall), Trevin Wade (Wichita St.), Iran Bennett (Marshall), Michael Wardy (JUCO)
Lineup:
Outlook: Let’s let the King of Soul introduce the theme of Eastern Kentucky’s 2021-22 season…
The Colonels saw quite a bit of change this offseason, and it was all extremely major: due to the football power struggle, EKU left the Ohio Valley Conference for the ASUN, and with the advent of the free one-time transfer rule, both of the Colonels best two players (Tre King and Wendell Green) up-transferred to power conference programs (Georgetown/TBD and Auburn, respectively). The player losses hurt, and Coach A.W. Hamilton and his staff have plenty of scouting to do with 10 new league foes (Jacksonville State will at least be familiar). Fortunately, those changes will not crush the momentum of EKU’s first 20+ win season since 2015.
EKU brings a completely different style to the ASUN, a league in which no team has landed inside the top 65 in tempo for two straight years. Meanwhile, the Colonels have ranked 2nd, 6th, and 2nd in that category in three years under Hamilton, and their relentless defensive pressure makes for a unique challenge in a league where half court teams (Liberty, Bellarmine) have dominated recently. No one else came close to pressing as frequently, per Synergy:
Unsurprisingly, that frenetic style leads to a ton of steals (7th nationally in steal rate), and the easy transition opportunities that result are the backbone of the EKU offense. The Colonels will put quick 10-0 runs on any opponent that gets careless for a brief stretch.
Hamilton also swiftly replaced King and Green with impact transfers, several of whom come from similar-ish styles. Braxton Beverly was a low-usage sniper for NC State, but he could (should?) be a star at this level. Plus, he’s accustomed to playing pressure schemes defensively after playing for Kevin Keatts; the Wolfpack ranked 18th in press frequency last year. It’s also harder to imagine a better replacement for King than Jannson Williams, a skilled inside-out forward who can block shots and get up and down the court (Marshall ranked 5th, 3rd, and 20th in tempo during his three seasons there). Wichita State’s Trevin Wade barely saw the court last year, but he’ll add some ball-handling depth for a team that typically uses a deeper rotation.
Williams’ teammate Iran Bennett is a slightly stranger fit. A truly enormous human being (6’10, 322 lbs.), he always seemed a little out of place participating in Thundering Herd track meets. So when he entered the portal and chose another mega-fast system, it was somewhat baffling. If used smartly, though, he can be a wrecking ball of a situational weapon, punishing smaller ASUN frontcourts with his sheer size and strength inside.
EKU also gets a “transfer” of sorts with the return of Jomaru Brown, a downhill force in the backcourt who ranked 3rd in the entire country in usage back in 2019-20 while averaging 18.4 PPG. He shot just 38.6% from the floor and had nearly double the turnovers (149) to assists (87), though, so his efficiency needs to improve. Having weapons like Beverly, Williams, Curt Lewis, and Michael Moreno around should boost his passing numbers and curb his erratic shot selection.
That five-man lineup – Brown, Beverly, Lewis, Moreno, Williams – could be absolutely devastating offensively. All five players can knock down threes without sacrificing any size, and Lewis has massive defensive potential thanks to his impressive frame (6’5, 220) and instincts. Moreno buried an outrageous 45.7% of his triples on high volume, emerging into one of the best stretch bigs in the entire country.
Division II JUCO All-American Michael Wardy could potentially be another option there, though he shot it at an extremely low volume and profiles more as a rim runner/finisher (or possibly a Wreck-it Ralph type role). Devontae Blanton (slasher) and Cooper Robb (shooter/lockdown defender) add depth on the wing (Robb actually started 24 games last year), and Tariq Balogun is a solid backup center if Wardy proves to small and/or Bennett does not fit the scheme. This team is deep, folks!
Hamilton vastly prefers to play in the open floor offensively, though the Colonels oddly ranked in just the 5th percentile nationally in transition efficiency, per Synergy. When forced to grind it out in the half court, that rose to the 86th percentile, and Hamilton turns to an effective spread attack featuring plenty of ball screen action. Brown, Beverly, Wade, and Russhard Cruickshank form a rock-solid collection of ball-handlers, and with so much shooting spreading the floor around that action, defenses will be forced into some difficult choices.
Bottom Line: Even without King and Green, EKU enters its new digs as an instant title contender thanks to a deep collection of offensive weapons and a uniquely challenging defensive scheme. Brown needs to settle into a more balanced offense, and Beverly’s emergence into a higher-usage role is something to track, but Hamilton & Co. undoubtedly have the talent to enter the ASUN with a bang. Liberty will be tough to unseat, and fellow OVC import Jacksonville State is loaded, but after earning just two NCAA bids since 2005, EKU may welcome its change of scenery with open arms.
4. Bellarmine
Key Returners: Dylan Penn, Ethan Claycomb, CJ Fleming, Alec Pfriem, Nick Thelen, Sam DeVault, Juston Betz
Key Losses: Pedro Bradshaw
Key Newcomers: Ayden Mudd, Ben Johnson, Curt Hopf
Lineup:
Outlook: As Dan Patrick used to say on SportsCenter: “welcome to the big show!”
And what a welcome it was for Bellarmine! Though I’m not sure the Knights’ ASUN opponents would feel the same way…
In the program’s first Division I campaign, Bellarmine battled through multiple COVID pauses and still managed to have a regular season finale showdown with Liberty for the outright regular season title (which was, appropriately, the Knights’ first game after a COVID pause). The Knights came up short against the juggernaut Flames, but Bellarmine still finished 2nd and at one point ripped off 10 straight league wins over the course of a month.
Most of that success was due to coach Scott Davenport’s symphonic offense, a beautiful network of screening and cutting that was essentially impossible for opponents to prepare for. Bellarmine scored over 1.0 points per possession in 13 of 14 ASUN clashes (0.98 in the other), ultimately ranking atop the league in in-conference adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom. It’s an intricate web of pass-and-cut, backdoors, and weakside screening with very few dribbles:
It’s a bear to game plan against, but even if you have faced it before (as teams in back-to-backs had), the Knights are so surgical in their execution and perceptive in their reads that it’s still a near-impossibility to defend. Per Synergy, Bellarmine led the country in cutting possessions – by a gargantuan margin:
The result of all of that is something of a “mid-major Gonzaga”: sky-high 2P% (22nd nationally), efficient 3P shooting without taking a ton (28th in 3P%, 303rd in 3PA rate), and many, many headaches for opposing coaches. You can try zoning them to avoid facing that offense, but Bellarmine tallied a volcanic 1.03 PPP against zones, so…good luck.
Davenport returns 11 of his top 12 scorers for an encore performance, with athletic point guard Dylan Penn and inside-out forward Ethan Claycomb leading the way. Penn is an incisive cutter and passer, embodying the skills needed to play in Davenport’s offense, and in the rare cases where necessary, their best off-the-bounce creator. The attack runs well when the ball is in his hands, partially because he’s one of the few non-shooters that plays. Claycomb, on the other hand, is deadly from deep, but he’s also a menace on the block (98th percentile in post up efficiency on low volume) or as a cutter himself. Here’s a little Penn-to-Claycomb basketball porn:
Unfortunately, the one loss from the rotation is the best player and unanimous First Team All-ASUN performer Pedro Bradshaw. The lanky 6’7 wing did absolutely everything for the Knights, leading them in scoring, rebounding, and steals (plus 3rd in assists), and his ability to “grab and go” off the defensive glass helped fuel a deadly (but selective) transition attack. Plenty of weapons return, but no one on the roster brings the overwhelming skill and versatility that Bradshaw possessed.
Without him, Davenport will need more from Alec Pfriem, who is probably the closest thing to Bradshaw on the roster. Bash Wieland and Nick Thelen are both useful rotational forwards, as well, but Pfriem likely has the highest ceiling of that group thanks to his burgeoning perimeter stroke. Speaking of which – Bellarmine also has CJ Fleming back, a true flamethrower who led the conference and ranked 13th nationally in offensive rating. With other pieces like center Sam DeVault and wing defender Juston Betz back, most of the rotation is settled, but freshmen Curt Hopf and Ayden Mudd do have the skills Davenport craves in his forwards.
Bellarmine’s downfall was on the defensive end, and more specifically, in its total inability to defend the perimeter. Daveport prefers an extended man-to-man in the hopes of forcing turnovers, but outside of Penn and Bradshaw, the Knights largely lack athletes. As a result, they were often beaten off the dribble, and Davenport’s tenets lean more towards helping than staying home on shooters.
And good golly, did foes make them pay. In D-I games, Bellarmine opponents buried a sizzling 38.9% of their triples while taking almost half of their shots from that range, almost single-handedly preventing Bellarmine’s defense from reaching respectable levels. Expect some regression this year, but with a similar cast of characters playing defense, the limitations will still be there.
Bottom Line: With Davenport in charge and a bevy of experience returning, the Knights will continue to be a knightmare (ha, ha) to defend. The intricate cutting offense is somewhat unique in college basketball, and opponents have yet to figure out just how to stop it. Yes, the defense undermined that effectiveness at times, but with something as simple as better defensive shooting luck, Bellarmine could take major strides there. Even without the irreplaceable Bradshaw, the Knights should provide an outstanding encore to their delightful debut.
5. Lipscomb
Key Returners: Ahsan Asadullah, KJ Johnson, Greg Jones, Parker Hazen, Will Pruitt
Key Losses: Romeao Ferguson, Jake Wolfe (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Jacob Ognacevic (Valpo), Jason Montgomery (D-II), Trae Benham, Grant Asman
Lineup:
Outlook: Year Two of the Lennie Acuff era in Nashville went quite a bit like the first. In fact, you might think it was identical just based on the statistics:
If you’re saying, “hey Jim, the Year Two numbers actually look just a wee bit better,” then you are 1) correct and 2) nitpicking, so stop it!
Honestly, the fact that Lipscomb did improve ever so slightly was fairly impressive considering some of the hurdles it faced. The Bisons’ best guard, KJ Johnson, missed the first six games of the season due to contact tracing, and their best recruit, lights-out scorer Tommy Murr, never got going after his own bout with COVID wrecked his preseason. That said, even when the Bisons were whole in January/February, they still had frustrating stretches of inconsistency that kept them from truly making a push towards the top of the ASUN standings.
The always-important Year Three is now upon Acuff & Co., and fortunately, he has his star big man back to dominate the paint. Ahsan Asadullah is one of the most important offensive pieces to his team in the country, the hub of Acuff’s attack and a dazzling passer from the high or low post. He gets a touch on basically every possession, with the green light to go score if defenses refuse to double and the vision to punish foes who do send extra help:
If that vision/pass doesn’t get you a little steamy, then we like basketball for different reasons. Per Synergy, Lipscomb ranked 11th in the country in possessions ended via a cut or a handoff, and that’s all due to Asadullah’s ability to facilitate such actions.
He led the Bisons in points, rebounds, assists, and blocks while finishing second in assists, and Acuff made a concerted effort to find more complementary options to take some burden off him. Jacob Ognacevic brings his scorching perimeter touch to the Music City after draining a silly 51.7% of his 58 triples as a freshman at Valpo, and D-II wing Jason Montgomery was not far behind, cashing in 47.7% of his 130 attempts. Plus, Montgomery attended the same high school as my fellow Weavers Matt and Ky, so he must be a star! Both players will make defenses think twice about crowding Asadullah inside.
Johnson should also be able to shift to his more natural shooting guard spot, as the prolific scorer (and possessor of so, so much hair) had to play some point last year while Murr and Will Pruitt got acclimated to the college game. Pruitt should comfortably hold that spot entering this year after coming on strong late, and if Murr can get his feet under him after a lost season, he’ll be a microwave option off the bench behind steady veteran Greg Jones. If his defensive deficiencies linger, then freshmen Quincy Clark and Trae Benham will have chances to earn minutes.
As vital as Asadullah is to the offense, he might be even more crucial on the other end. The Bisons simply have no other options at center; Parker Hazen is an energetic and willing defender, but he’s too thin to stand up against true centers like JSU’s Brandon Huffman or FGCU’s Kevin Samuel, and freshman Grant Asman is not ready to step in right away. Asadullah is nowhere near an elite shot-blocker, but he’s strong and eats up space, often deterring foes from going all the way to the rim.
The data backs this up, as Hoop-Explorer paints a gruesome picture of his impact: when he’s on the floor, Lipscomb surrenders 103.9 points per 100 (adjusted), but when he sits, that balloons to 117.4, which is Mississippi Valley State-level bad. He smartly avoids foul trouble, but when he rests, the floodgates open. As skilled as Ognacevic is offensively, he won’t be fixing this problem at all.
The other primary defensive issue is that the Bisons surrender a ton of threes while playing a packed-in, conservative man-to-man, and when foes get hot, it’s curtains. Everyone not named Asadullah or Hazen also needs to do a much better job helping on the defensive glass.
Bottom Line: Acuff is an incredibly well-respected basketball mind, and with an inverted offense centered around Asadullah, the Bisons’ offense is tough to prepare for and defend. With Johnson shifting into more of a scoring role and potential impacts from Ognacevic, Montgomery, and Murr, this version of Lipscomb could prove even more lethal. The defense needs to hold up its end of the bargain, though, and Acuff must find a way to stop the bleeding when Asadullah rests (some sort of zone, perhaps?). If not, then Year Three may just end up another clone of Years One and Two.
6. Stetson
Key Returners: Rob Perry, Christiaan Jones, Chase Johnston, Stephan D. Swenson, Mahamadou Diawara, Josh Smith, Wheza Panzo
Key Losses: None
Key Newcomers: Luke Brown, Aubin Gateretse, Tasos Cook, Alex Crawford, James Nichols
Lineup:
Outlook: In the madness of last year’s back-to-back scheduling, few teams embodied the “zig-zag” nature of those matchups than Stetson. Aside from getting swept at Division I newbie Bellarmine, the Hatters split every ASUN B2B series. That includes with league champ Liberty and cellar dweller Kennesaw State. The Hatters’ inability to finish those series can be blamed on youth: per KenPom, Stetson ranked 345th in experience, rolling out a rotation of four freshmen, three sophomores, and a senior.
To the relief of third-year boss Donnie Jones, the band is back and the members are all a year older. The one senior, Christiaan Jones, chose to use his super senior season afforded by COVID, and Stetson brings back 95.2% of its minutes from last year – 21st nationally, per BartTorvik. The Hatters will be a primary test case of the “does continuity equal improvement?” hypothesis, hoping to capitalize on the benefits of returning the same eight-man rotation that delivered Stetson’s best KenPom ranking since 2001.
The Hatters’ deep and deadly backcourt is their calling card, with Jones joined by Rob Perry (the 2020 ASUN Freshman of the Year), Chase Johnston (the 2021 ASUN FOY), and Stephan Swenson. Perry and Johnston are absolute gunners from beyond the arc, combining to take 363 triples in just 27 games, but when you knock down 135 of them (37.2%), you’re afforded that kind of freedom. Both have “in the gym” kind of range – even though Perry’s jumper form is, uh, unconventional:
Hey, all that matters is whether it goes in (and it’s strangely, hypnotically smooth).
For their part, Jones and Swenson also combined to go 41-of-112 (36.6%), and defenses had serious issues covering all four of them when they took the court together. Giancarlo Valdez offers depth, but he could lose time to freshman sniper Luke Brown, who is slight but pure from beyond the arc.
To max out the Hatters’ potential, Perry and Johnston need to continue adding more to their games. The pair combined to take just 126 free throws (a far cry from those 363 threes), and being so reliant on jump shots is part of why the Hatters’ outcomes were so inconsistent. Getting to the rim more – either to finish or draw fouls – would be a massive boost to the offense.
The shooting does not stop in the backcourt, though. Stretch bigs Wheza Panzo (43.1%) and Josh Smith (37.8%) also knocked in their share of triples, and the Hatters’ offense can completely demoralize opponents when the shooters get hot. Stetson made 10+ triples in 13 of its 27 games last season, going 8-5 in those games. They went just 4-10 in the other 14. Yes, that’s a “well duh” kind of stat, but it emphasizes just how important the three-point shot became for the Hatters last year.
Also important: Mr. Mahamadou Diawara, Stetson’s only meaningful paint presence. The 6’10 rising junior dominated on the glass last year, and when he sat, the Hatters suffered on both ends of the court:
He even evolved into a post up threat last season, showing impressive development despite battling some injuries during the year.
The depth behind him is alarming, especially considering that the big Malian can be foul-prone at times. Smith is the most likely option to back him up, but his face up game is a drastically different style. Freshmen Aubin Gateretse, a thin Belgian, and Alex Crawford, an even thinner Californian, will have a shot at minutes, but it’s likely neither is ready for the rigors of Division I basketball quite yet (despite Gateretse reportedly adding 25 pounds this offseason). With only Diawara to provide any sort of resistance, the Hatters’ interior defense may continue to be an Achilles heel.
Without post depth, Coach Jones has gone to a ton of zone looks, doing so on more than 40% of possessions last year. Being a former Billy Donovan assistant, he also talked this offseason about wanting to go deeper into his bench and press more, though that’s always easier said than done for coaches. If the freshman class can contribute a little, then it’s a realistic goal, and the Hatters’ defense could certainly use the juice.
Bottom Line: Stetson got its first taste of postseason basketball at the Division I level last year, splitting a pair of games in the CBI. That was a remarkable achievement for such a young team, and with a cadre of shooters back led by Perry, Johnston, and Jones, the potent Hatters’ offense will be in search of another berth. Whether the defense can keep up will be the question, and with only Diawara to protect the paint, the answer seems dicey. Still, this could end up being too low if the explosive backcourt finds more consistency in closing out games.
7. North Florida
Key Returners: Carter Hendricksen, Jose Placer, Emmanuel Adedoyin, Dorian James, Jonathan Aybar, Jacob Crews
Key Losses: Josh Endicott
Key Newcomers: Jairus Hicklen (D-II), Jordan Preaster (JUCO)
Lineup:
Outlook: Welcome to one of the most enjoyable previews to write every single year! Why is that, you ask? Well, it’s because Matthew Driscoll runs one of the most distinct styles of basketball that you’ll find in all of college hoops – on both ends of the court. The Ospreys have a clear identity, launching threes with the audacity of a college kid at bar close and playing a funky zone defense that funnels offenses into the middle. It’s not quite “fun house mirror” basketball, but if a Big Ten team saw this reflection, it would scream in horror.
The key aspect of the “Birds of Trey,” as they are affectionately known, is that all those triples have a habit of going in the basket. Driscoll tirelessly recruits shooters from both the freshman ranks and the transfer portal (and he added newcomers from D-II and JUCO this offseason), reloading his arsenal of bombers year after year. With only two departures from last year’s squad that ranked 14th in 3PA rate and 61st in 3P%, expect the aerial onslaught to continue in full force.
The deadliest weapons in that attack are Carter Hendricksen, a skilled forward with deep range, and Jose Placer, a savvy creator who strikes a near-perfect balance between getting his own buckets and setting the table for others. At 6’7 with skill, Hendricksen is a matchup nightmare for opponents. Bigs don’t want to come out too far, and he can just shoot over the top of guards. One of Driscoll’s favorite actions to get him shots is to stick him in the paint while a pick-and-roll happens and let him pop out behind it while his defender gets lost in the muck:
Driscoll will also frequently get him post touches where he can rise up over smaller defenders who were meant to chase him around the perimeter.
Hendricksen missed seven games last year due to injury, and North Florida unsurprisingly went just 2-5 in his absence (including a loss to Division II Flagler — yikes). The attention he draws from defenses opens the court up for so much other action, and Placer in particular is highly intelligent in how he takes advantage of that space.
Plenty of other complementary options lurk, as well. Jonathan Aybar is an evolving interior threat, and Emmanuel Adedoyin is actually the nominal point guard of the offense. Both players struggled with turnovers last year, but Aybar gained valuable experience as a freshman, and Adedoyin’s deadeye marksmanship from downtown (44% on meaningful volume) more than makes up for any lingering ball security issues. Dorian James forms a solid platoon with Aybar inside, though watch out for Jadyn Parker, a long but extremely thin sophomore with serious potential as a paint presence.
On the wings, Josh Berenbaum and Jacob Crews could be in line for major progress after showing flashes as freshmen. Berenbaum really emerged in the final three games, racking up 42 points after playing just 33 minutes the entire season prior to that. Crews offers some “future Hendricksen” appeal given his size (6’7) and willingness to launch from the outside. The wild cards are Jairus Hicklen, the aforementioned D-II import, and Jordan Preaster, the JUCO product. Both showed impressive shooting prowess at their prior stops, with Hicklen burying 42.2% of his 90 3P attempts.
It’s all fun and games until we have to talk defense, though. North Florida’s zone was absolutely THRASHED by opponents last year, which unfortunately is nothing new under Driscoll. Last year was near rock bottom, though, as the Ospreys plummeted to 352nd nationally in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. Per usual, they went heavy on zone, doing so on 60% of possessions, but the effectiveness simply was not there.
Driscoll’s 2-3 zone ends up looking much more like a 4-1 because of the way the wings extend:
That spread out alignment leads to easy touches inside the arc – but that’s by design. The goal is to take away threes and seduce foes into taking mid-range jumpers, especially when shaky shooters get touches in that slot area. That particular strategy still mostly worked, but the Ospreys’ total inability to end possessions via turnovers or defensive rebounds just meant that, like a toddler, opponents just shot until they made one.
When that zone does work (like in 2019 or 2015), it’s because the back line has an enforcer (Wajid Aminu, Demarcus Daniels) capable of taking away the rim when foes attack from the high post. Aybar and Parker both have that potential, but they were merely freshmen last year. Both players struggled with positioning and foul trouble, two areas that should improve with experience.
Bottom Line: North Florida unquestionably has offensive weapons, and added experience for a team that ranked 312th in that category last year (KenPom) is invaluable. Placer and Adedoyin form a potent perimeter duo that plays well together, and a healthy season from Hendricksen should help. However, all of the Ospreys’ offensive influence will be irrelevant if the defense remains alarmingly awful. Driscoll has had plenty of ASUN success, but this is a loaded league now, and the Birds of Trey’s wacky approach to the game may be mired in the middle of the standings once again.
8. Florida Gulf Coast
Key Returners: Cyrus Largie, Caleb Catto, Franco Miller, Luis Rolon, Dakota Rivers
Key Losses: Jalen Warren, Eli Abaev, Zach Anderson
Key Newcomers: Kevin Samuel (TCU), Tavian Dunn-Martin (Duquesne), Matt Halvorsen (Western Carolina), Carlos Rosario (McNeese St.), Austin Richie (Tulsa), Andre Weir (Richmond)
Lineup:
Outlook: I always had the perception in my mind that FGCU was squarely on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico, pressed up against the sandy beaches like a year-round spring break. That’s not exactly correct, but the campus does have an inland beach:
Yeah, that’ll do. And as it turns out, that kind of campus and an up-tempo, spread-style offense can attract some serious talent!
Coach Michael Fly got after it in the transfer portal this offseason, roping in multiple high-major talents and making a concerted effort to fix his squad’s one true flaw: a total lack of shooting. Come on down, Matt Halvorsen, who knocked down 297 triples at 37.1% during a four-year career at Western Carolina. Step right up, Tavian Dunn-Martin, a diminutive but deadly Duquesne defector (do not be fooled by his 2020-21 stats, when he was overwhelmed as the team’s only healthy guard). Welcome, Austin Richie, a standstill sniper from Tulsa who never ever turns the ball over. Dunn-Martin should be especially important after being pressed into PG duties for the Dukes; he can fill multiple roles for the Eagles.
All three join incumbents Caleb Catto and Cyrus Largie to (hopefully) resurrect the Eagles’ dormant marksmanship, as FGCU ranked a dismal 334th in 3P% and 319th in FT% last year. Two of the prime culprits are still around in stoutly-built guards Franco Miller and Luis Rolon, but with more legitimate threats around them, they should not be pressed into taking any triples. Ultimately, that was the problem: Fly gave the green light to too many non-shooters, undermining the effectiveness of Catto and Largie.
“Offensive freedom” was a major theme last year, as Fly cranked the tempo and let his Eagles fly in transition. FGCU went from 286th in tempo in 2020 to 69th last year, and those open court possessions were the only bright spot for an attack that completely crumbled in the half court (11th percentile nationally, per Synergy). Adding shooting and creation via the transfer portal will help, and hopefully Rolon progresses into a useful piece after shooting 27% from the field as a freshman, but the Eagles also need to find a way to get easy buckets inside.
To that end, Fly added two more portalers to the fold, including TCU monster Kevin Samuel and aggressive McNeese forward Carlos Rosario. Samuel could absolutely dominate in the ASUN if optimized, as he’s simply too big (6’11, 255 pounds) and fluid as an athlete to be stopped. After being one of the worst and most infrequent post up teams in the country last year, FGCU can at least throw Samuel or Rosario the ball on the block and hope to get a productive possession:
Throwing it into the post will never become a huge part of the attack in Fly’s spread philosophy, but having that option — even if it’s just to force defenses to collapse — cannot hurt.
Samuel should also serve as the cornerstone of a potentially pesky defense. He was a highly impactful shot-blocker and rebounder even against Big 12 competition, so he should rule ASUN interiors with an iron fist. FGCU already ranked 17th nationally in FG% allowed at the rim, per Hoop-Math, and that number should remain quite low with Samuel around. To maintain his spread attack, Fly may opt to use Rosario and Richmond transfer Andre Weir as backup centers rather than in tandem with Samuel, so expect to see Dakota Rivers and Richie manning the frontcourt as stretchier options. Rivers actually ranked 16th in the country in block rate; good luck scoring in the paint when he and Samuel join forces.
Fly frequently deploys zone defensively, and though his squad is deeper and longer this time around, expect that trend to continue. It’s mostly a matchup 2-3 that forms to the shape of the offense, and the benefit of that look is that it keeps the Eagles’ rim protectors near the basket. Opponents destroyed FGCU at the free throw line area and the elbows, though, so it is not without its flaws. If you have a smart and skilled playmaker to slot there, you’ll have success.
Bottom Line: FGCU has had some talent under Fly before, but this roster is on another level. Featuring quality starters from the Big 12 (Samuel), the A-10 (Dunn-Martin), and the American (Richie) is already an abundance of riches, and Fly also returns his two leading scorers and adds Halvorsen and Rosario, as well. That raises the expectations for a team that has been utterly unable to figure out how to score efficiently, and the downside for Fly is that if he does not win with this roster, he may never get it done in the ASUN. The ceiling is high, but I’m incredibly hesitant to trust Fly to maximize the impressive pieces he added after the past few seasons.
Tier 4
9. Jacksonville
Key Returners: Kevion Nolan, Tyreese Davis, Bryce Workman
Key Losses: Dontarius James (transfer), Diante Wood (transfer), Mo Arnold, Trey Sides, Corey Romich
Key Newcomers: Tommy Bruner (USC Upstate), Jordan Davis (Middle Tenn), Osayi Osifo (Florida), Gyasi Powell (D-II), Mike Marsh (JUCO), Isaiah Broady, George Pridgett
Lineup:
Outlook: For Jacksonville and new coach Jordan Mincy, things could have gone south extremely quickly. After the administration let Tony Jasick go, every meaningful player from last year’s team that was not graduating flocked to the transfer portal, leaving the Dolphins bereft of any sort of roster substance. Without some quick work on Mincy’s part, this Jacksonville squad could have been starting from an even bleaker place than the 2021 NFL Jaguars.
Fortunately, Mincy convinced three double-digit scorers to return, and he continued that momentum by landing a cadre of newcomers from all kinds of different backgrounds. Only 34 years of age, Mincy still needs to assemble those pieces into a coherent basketball team, but at least he has the pieces. You can’t assemble a sick ass LEGO Millenium Falcon with the parts for a tea party (not my best metaphor, but you get the idea).
Mincy has worked under Mike White at both Louisiana Tech and Florida, so it seems a safe bet that he’ll carry over some stylistic elements from those days. We’ve had our share of questions surrounding White’s tempo choices, but Mincy has the depth and athletes to imitate White’s faster teams (aka his most successful ones), so seeing the Dolphins get out in transition would make sense. His recruiting work netted a deep backcourt with multiple playmakers, so the ball-handling is there to run.
That stable of guards should also be able to run an offense heavy on pick-and-roll, a staple of White’s years with both the Bulldogs and the Gators. Kevion Nolan was a monster in limited playing time last season (he struggled with leg injuries). His combination of deep range shooting and plus passing vision should make him a star in Mincy’s system. He has “take over games” potential when he really gets it going:
Folks, we also love to see a 2-for-1! Nolan often had to defer to Dontarius James last season, a similarly shot-hungry entity, and James’ departure opens up more opportunities for Nolan and others.
Additionally, Tommy Bruner (USC Upstate) and Jordan Davis (Middle Tennessee) add some pop in the backcourt. Bruner’s speed and creation are particularly exciting, and Davis began his career at Dayton. Of course, both transfer guards were on absolutely garbage teams last year. They’ll need to kick the bad habits formed while their former teams both went 5-18. D-II transfer Gyasi Powell posted impressive numbers, but the step up in competition – internally for minutes and against ASUN opposition – could drain his effectiveness.
The Dolphins will also play through Tyreese Davis at times, allowing him to work as a point-forward type. Davis excelled as a freshman before missing 2019-20 with a torn ACL, but he impressed once again in his return, and his positionless nature makes him tough to handle in the ASUN. If he can rediscover some sort of shooting stroke, both from deep and the free throw line, he becomes even more of a threat.
Jacksonville sorely lacked size last season, and it showed via interior defense numbers: the Dolphins ranked just 260th nationally in FG% allowed at the rim, per Hoop Math. Bryce Workman embodied his name as a tireless rebounder, but he’s undersized as a center against most frontcourts, even in the ASUN. Mincy made this another area of focus in his recruiting, and bringing Osayi Osifo along from Florida could end up being a coup. The formerly highly-rated JUCO transfer never found his footing in the SEC, but stepping down a level could unlock his considerable two-way upside, especially in a familiar system.
JUCO transfer Mike Marsh offers more size, and versatile mid-size forwards Rod Brown and Daivon Stephens add even more lineup flexibility. Additionally, freshman Isaiah Broady is earning rave reviews for his skill level, and he could end up beating out both Brown and Stephens if they don’t improve from disappointing prior stops.
Bottom Line: With a new, young coach in Mincy and so many transfers to piece together, the Dolphins are a very mysterious team entering the 2021-22 campaign. The range of outcomes is wide: if Mincy quickly implements a style and gets the players to buy in, Nolan provides Player of the Year-level production for the entire season, Osifo and Brown reinforce the paint, and the incoming guards can rid the bad habits of their previous losing programs, then Jacksonville could be a top five team in the standings. That’s a lot of “ifs,” though. With so many other ASUN contenders returning copious production (plus the arrival of EKU and faux rival Jacksonville State), it feels more prudent to go conservative with the Phins’ projection.
10. Kennesaw St.
Key Returners: Spencer Rodgers, Terrell Burden, Chris Youngblood, Brandon Stroud, Alex Peterson, Kasen Jennings, Armani Harris
Key Losses: None
Key Newcomers: Demond Robinson (Murray St.), Isaiah Reddish (D-II), Jamir Moultrie (NC Central)
Lineup:
Outlook: You ever play on one of these as a kid?
The seesaw might be the first instance of fat-shaming that generations of little tykes have experienced – in hindsight, maybe they were not the joy machine they are imagined to be…
How’s that relevant to a Kennesaw State preview? Well, I affectionately refer to the Owls as “Kenny SeeSaw,” because betting on the Owls is frequently an up-and-down experience. Of course, even after Amir Abdur-Rahim took over for Al Skinner, that experience has included significantly more “down”; the Owls are a dismal 20-30 against the number in AAR’s two seasons. In the seesaw analogy, Kennesaw State has been the 150-pound 6-year-old who cannot find a fair counterweight and is stuck on the ground.
Optimism has started to creep in, though. AAR has unquestionably upgraded the Owls’ talent, and with two more key additions via transfer and some freshman-to-sophomore magic for last year’s outstanding recruiting class, the 2021-22 season might actually include some legitimate upswings.
The Owls return almost everyone from a team that started to perform well down the stretch; per Bart Torvik, the Owls rank 22nd nationally in returning minutes at 94.1%. Of course, that nucleus ranked 350th nationally in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, so that is not automatically a plus. The Owls suffered through many an extended scoring drought, often undermining the work of an athletic, engaged defensive unit.
Abdur-Rahim is hoping that Demond Robinson and Isaiah Reddish can be the much-needed rain to quell those droughts. Robinson adds an element the Owls lacked entirely: a bruising interior presence who can get a bucket on his own, whether that be via post ups or with physicality on the offensive glass. Alex Peterson performed admirably while masquerading as a center, but now that he slides over to a more natural forward spot, the Owls’ frontcourt becomes a whole lot more intimidating – on both ends.
Kennesaw’s defense allowed a ton of shots at the rim: per Hoop-Math, 43.8% of opponents’ shots came there, ranking the Owls 336th nationally in that category. The lineup had a lot of length on the wings via the wing corps of Spencer Rodgers, Chris Youngblood, and Brandon Stroud, so finishing was still not a walk in the park, but adding Robinson inside provides a true enforcer when foes get inside. If Cole LaRue or Nate Springs can be a viable Robinson backup, AAR will even have some depth up front.
Abdur-Rahim’s roster enables him to roll out some bigger, athletic lineups if he shifts Rodgers to the point for stretches. Still, even though Terrell Burden is the only smallish player in the rotation, the 5’10 lead guard should continue to improve as he gets more comfortable on a surgically-repaired knee. The on/off splits for Burden on the defensive end are intriguing:
KSU forced more turnovers while fouling less with Burden out there, a testament to his pest-ability.
Reddish, meanwhile, was a scoring machine at Division II Barton College, racking up nearly 24 points a night while stuffing the stat sheet elsewhere, too. Outside of the prolific Rodgers, the Owls struggled to score efficiently, so adding a player well-versed in that aspect of the sport provides a nice boost. Newcomer Jamir Moultrie adds a second smaller guard to the rotation, and though NC Central barely had a season last year, his 40% shooting from beyond the arc will be more than welcome. Plus, the highly-touted Youngblood and Stroud are both obvious breakout candidates after playing big minutes as froshies.
Even with Robinson in the fold, the half court offense will have some hiccups, because the Owls may not have enough shooting to really threaten opponents. Rodgers buried 39% of his attempts, but he was the only above average one of the bunch, though Youngblood clearly has the stroke to get there. Two other wings, Kasen Jennings and Armani Harris, need to take advantage of (hopefully) more open opportunities now that Robinson will be drawing defensive attention.
AAR was hesitant to let his young, turnover-prone team maraud forward in transition, but with so much more experience across the roster, do not be surprised to see him ease off the brakes. Burden is a speedster at point guard, but even when he sits, the Rodgers/Youngblood/Stroud/Reddish group should be tough to handle in the open floor. Again, the Owls were 350th nationally on offense – it cannot get much worse.
Bottom Line: It’s been a few seasons since Kennesaw State has even cracked KenPom’s top 300, and the program has never ranked better than 252nd in 16 Division I seasons. Abdur-Rahim’s energy as a head coach and active work in player acquisition has imbued some genuine optimism, though, and if the young talent develops as hoped, the Owls could be a pain to play against this year as they creep up the ASUN standings. I have little doubt I’ll be hopping back on the Kenny See-Saw more than a few times this season, so here’s to hoping that progress is tangible.
11. North Alabama
Key Returners: CJ Brim, Payton Youngblood, Jamari Blackmon, Isaac Chatman, Detalian Brown
Key Losses: Mervin James (transfer), Emmanuel Littles (transfer), James Anderson (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Damian Forest (JUCO), Dallas Howell, Omar Figueroa, Daniel Ortiz
Lineup:
Outlook: It’s only year four of North Alabama’s Division I tenure, but Tony Pujol’s Lions have established a fairly consistent trend so far. In ASUN play, they have registered records of 7-9, 8-8, and 7-8 (somewhere, Jeff Fisher just blushed). Thanks to a solid yet unspectacular defense, they’ve floated in the middle of the league standings, a commendable accomplishment as they enter the final season of the D-I transition phase. Remaining on that perch will be a challenge, though, as many of the Lions’ adversaries loaded up on extra year players and/or transfers, while the portal was unkind to UNA.
To this point, Pujol’s defenses have thrived via dominant defensive rebounding and disruptive perimeter play. The latter should continue following the return of backcourt trident CJ Brim, Jamari Blackmon, and Payton Youngblood, but the former is a reasonable cause for concern. Mervin James and Emmanuel Littles, the duo that combined to log 44 of a possible 48 starts in the frontcourt, both sought greener pastures, and though Isaac Chatman was effective in limited minutes, he’s no Littles. At the very least, his rim protection will reinforce the Lions’ interior defense, but around him, question marks abound.
JUCO transfer Damian Forrest averaged a double-double in community college, but maintaining that kind of effectiveness on the glass against ever-improving ASUN competition is probably asking too much. Beyond that, Pujol can go small or hope that one of an unproven trio of youngsters (Dallas Howell, Pape Momar Cisse, Deraje Agbaosi) can emerge into a legitimate contributor. Howell was at least in the program for the second semester last year, but Agbaosi is the most versatile.
If Pujol does go small, Youngblood or Will Soucie can slide down to “power forward” for stretches. UNA was awful defending ball screens last year, particularly ball-handlers coming off those screens, so having more mobility on the court could be beneficial. The Brim/Blackmon combo still sorely lacks size, though, making it hard to really bother opponents as they probe the Lion defense.
Along with Youngblood’s lethal shooting, the strength of this Lions team is clearly in the backcourt. Blackmon and Brim are both capable drivers and initiators, and Brim’s injury issues last year stunted both his own development and that of the team. The silver lining was that Detalian Brown got a chance to play early and often, and the second-year collegian showed potential as another perimeter weapon.
Strangely, despite having Blackmon and Brim back from the 2019-20 starting lineup, Pujol shifted the offense away from pick-and-rolls, continuing a trend that started last year:
That’s surprising considering how effective UNA’s guards are in those actions, especially Blackmon. Without James as a matchup problem at forward, we could see a return to heavy pick-and-roll usage in 2021-22. Freshman guards Omar Figueroa and Daniel Ortiz are both potential options to bolster that scheme, and Figueroa’s international experience from playing with Puerto Rico’s youth teams might make him ASUN ready immediately.
At the very least, the Lions should be able to spread the floor, with Youngblood, Brown, and Brim all being potent from beyond the arc. Serbian wing Aleksa Matic can also be a threat if he can earn more minutes, and the “Youngblood at PF” lineups should really open up the court. The Lions’ attack is most effective when Blackmon and Brim can get downhill into gaps, so forcing defenses to respect jump shooters is valuable.
Bottom Line: Losing James and Littles to the portal robs the frontcourt of its most effective pieces, and the unproven group to which Pujol now turns will have to come along quickly. The backcourt will be effective (especially if Brown can take a leap), but even last year’s group struggled to score efficiently, a riddle Pujol has yet to solve at the Division I level. The defense should again be the Lions’ backbone, and even if the rebounding is not quite up to previous seasons’ levels, perimeter pressure can help offset any decline. Overall, though, it looks like UNA got a little bit worse than last year, while most of its opponents saw tangible approvement. That pushes the normally mid-table Lions closer to the ASUN’s depths.
Tier 5
12. Central Arkansas
Key Returners: Collin Cooper, Eddy Kayouloud, Jaxson Baker, Jared Chatham, SK Shittu, Masai Olowokere
Key Losses: Rylan Bergersen (transfer), DeAndre Jones (transfer), Khaleem Bennett (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Darious Hall (DePaul), Camren Hunter, Vincent Reeves, Elias Cato, Ibbe Klintman
Lineup:
Outlook: And now, the third and final newcomer to the ASUN! Central Arkansas joins from the Southland, where the Bears have toiled (and struggled) since joining Division I hoops back in 2006. In those 15 years, UCA has finished above .500 in league play just once, amassing a brutal record of 76-182 (29.5%). Russ Pennell had the program fighting in the late 2010s, but asking the Bears to make significant strides while also facing a tangible step up in competition could prove disastrous.
The man in charge of that daunting task is Anthony Boone, who took over for Pennell back in January 2019 upon the latter being placed on administrative leave. His own win/loss record – 14-33, 12-33 in league play – leaves plenty to be desired, though last season’s Southland campaign was derailed by a crucial season-ending injury to point guard DeAndre Jones, who has since transferred to Saint Louis. Boone, a former Ole Miss guard, will have his hands full this season, because his cupboard is decidedly not full.
The departures of Jones and Rylan Bergersen leave a massive void at point guard, an issue Boone must address in his pedal-to-the-metal style. Bergersen filled in admirably after Jones went down, but the roster now lacks any proven options at the spot. Colin Cooper is probably the closest thing to it, and the junior from Fayetteville did log a few minutes there when Bergersen needed a breather, but he’s best used as a lethal spot up shooter after burying 40.4% of his triples last year. That likely presses burly freshman Camren Hunter into duty, a strong lead guard with quality floor vision. Still, quarterbacking Boone’s breakneck attack as a rookie will be a bumpy road.
The other option is using Eddy Kayouloud as something of a point forward. A starter or key reserve for his entire career thus far, Kayouloud has a varied offensive game that allows him to attack off the bounce or knock down shots from beyond the arc. He surged late last year after being re-inserted into the starting five, averaging 14.6 PPG, 6.7 RPG, and 2.3 APG in the Bears’ final nine contests. His skill set makes the offense noticeably better:
At the very least, Kayouloud and the point guards should have shooting options around the perimeter. Cooper, Jaxson Baker, and Makai Olowokere can all get hot, though the latter two in particular lack the skills beyond that to punish rotating defenses off the bounce.
The above Kayouloud on/off screenshot hints at the even larger problem here: UCA played zero defense last year. The Bears were routinely cooked in transition, and they could not contain pick-and-roll ball-handlers at all. Statistically, the Bears have the profile of an “easy to play against” squad: they do not force turnovers, and foes comfortably shot a high percentage from basically anywhere.
DePaul transfer Darious Hall should beef up the interior and add another versatile defender, but he is not a rim protector the way that Hayden Koval was for Pennell’s best (“best”) defenses. SK Shittu and Jared Chatham are athletic forwards who at least battle hard on the glass, and freshman Elias Cato could provide a spark off the bench, but taller centers Jonas Munson and Churchill Bounds probably are not ready for massive minutes. Considering the Bears’ lack of height and shot-blocking, the defense will need to remain conservative…and for UCA, conservative on this end has not worked out well.
Perhaps the most beneficial development that Boone can hope for is shooting regression. Opponents buried 38.2% of their 3P attempts last year, ranking UCA 330th in the country. If that reverts closer to the national mean of 33.8%, the Bears would see some passive (but massive) progress. Though the post players lack size, Boone can play some long perimeter lineups with Hunter, Olowokere, Baker, and froshy Vincent Reeves, so hopefully they can at least bother shooters.
Bottom Line: Boone is young and energetic, and he may be the right choice for UCA long term, but it’s hard to see how the Bears’ transition to the ASUN goes smoothly. The Bears ranked 338th nationally in turnover margin last year, per NCAA.com (-5.6 per game), and the ball-handling issues will almost certainly persist considering the lack of proven point guard play. The defense has nowhere to go but up, but how far up this particular roster can go is also a valid question mark. Finishing 10th or higher in an improving conference should be the goal, and hopefully several young players will emerge as foundational pieces for the future.