-Matt Cox
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Ahsan Asadullah, R Jr., Lipscomb
Coach of the Year: Lennie Acuff, Lipscomb
Newcomer of the Year: Tommy Murr, Lipscomb
Freshman of the Year: Tommy Murr, Lipscomb
Team Previews
Tier 1
1. Lipscomb
Key Returners: Ahsan Asadullah, KJ Johnson, Greg Jones, Parker Hazen, Miles Miller, Jake Wolfe
Key Losses: Andrew Fleming, Michael Buckland
Key Newcomers: Tommy Murr, Romeao Ferguson
Lineup:
Outlook: Not even a Music City Miracle could’ve saved the Bisons from last year’s crash landing.
New roster. New coach. New era.
It’s a new normal for the Lipscomb basketball program. The 2019 meteoric rise to mid-major stardom could only shine so bright for so long. That near flawless rendition would’ve ran circles around last year’s squad, the same team that finished 3rd in the league standings – not exactly a ‘debacle’ by any stretch. Without normalizing for those conditions, Lennie Acuff’s year 1 report card would be an unjust depiction of his true performance. From my vantage point, Acuff kept a steady hand on the wheel, despite a myriad of bumps along the road. But having to replace four starters was just the tip of the iceberg.
Unlike his predecessor Casey Alexander, Acuff didn’t sprout from the Rick Byrd coaching tree. Engaging in a track meet isn’t his cup of tea, as it is for Byrd and Alexander. Rather, Acuff follows a more measured, inside-out, approach to offensive execution. As detailed in Blue Ribbon, Acuff runs his offense through the post, emulating a ‘hub-and-spoke’ model that requires a unicorn player as the epicenter. Though perhaps not as graceful as a unicorn, 6’8 265 pound Ahsan Asadullah fits the job description to a ‘T’.
Asadullah was the sun of the Bisons’ universe last year. He’s part punisher, part passer, equally adept at dominating on the low block, while spraying the rock around to cutter and shooters all over the floor - seriously, he led the conference in assists on a per possession basis, despite looking more like an offensive lineman than a point guard.
An early injury led to some minor inconsistencies in the non-conference, but by the time February rolled around, Asadullah was stomping on everyone. His leap directly coincided with the Bisons’ 8-1 surge, proof of his inertia for this team.
Even though Asadullah masquerades as a point guard in practice, Acuff understands the value of reliable ball handlers on the perimeter. In his NABC coaching series seminar this summer, he emphasized that basketball is still “a guard’s game”, citing that some of his best teams in the past featured two or three point guards. Their collective role in this system isn’t as burdensome as other pick-n-roll, more NBA-esque schemes. But, any shooting deficiencies is a non-starter. In that sense, KJ Johnson is the perfect archetype at the 1. He initiates offense without controlling it. While not the deadeye marksman that his backcourt mate Greg Jones is, Johnson fits like a glove in this offense.
Jake Wolfe and Miles Miller are excited for a fresh start after injuries abruptly ended both of their seasons last year. Both will be in contention for a starting nod, but they might have to step aside for Tommy Murr, the Bisons’ rookie sensation. A legend in the state of Alabama, Murr made a mockery of high schoolers, shattering countless records in the history books. This offseason, Acuff’s already hinted at giving Murr the green light to co-pilot the offense alongside Johnson. For your viewing pleasure, here’s a video of Murr dropping a 60-burger, a game in which he eclipsed the 5,000 point milestone.
Defensively, Lipscomb should benefit from a presumably healthier roster this year, augmented by a defensive specialist newcomer in Romeao Ferguson from the D-II ranks – akin to Miller and Parken Hazen, Ferguson carries the same defensive versatility gene.
Bottom Line: Losing the top two shooters from last year’s squad may squeeze the floor spacing for Asadullah to operate inside, but don’t discount the lesser known 3-point drillers still in the mix. Behind Asadullah, Murr, Johnson and a bevy of cerebral glue guys, the Bisons’ offense should soar even higher in 2021, entering year 2 of Acuff’s system installation.
Liberty’s a year behind Lipscomb in the program evolution cycle, facing inevitable decay after winning 30 games last season – it’s time for the Bisons to reclaim their spot on the center podium.
2. Liberty
Key Returners: Darius McGhee, Elijah Cuffee, Kyle Rode
Key Losses: Caleb Homesley, Scottie James, Georgie Pacheco-Ortiz, Myo Baxter-Bell
Key Newcomers: Jonathan Jackson, Isiah Warfield, Chris Parker, Drake Dobbs
Lineup:
Outlook: Alright, Liberty, you’re up…
A year removed from Lipscomb’s offseason housecleaning, Liberty now faces its own roster purge.
The Flames’ 2020 core had all the ingredients. On offense, Caleb Homesley’s shot making and Scottie James’ interior scoring established an enviable inside-out balance, while the supporting cast did everything else. Darius McGhee (aka Darius McThree) and Elijah Cuffee were two of these unsung heroes. McGhee’s prolific shooting and Cuffee’s infectious energy have sparked key runs in big moments over the years. Now, they’re the main act in Lynchburg.
It’s difficult to project what this offense will look like with Cuffee and McGhee as the primary sources of scoring. However, during a brief stretch last season when Homesley missed four games (from November 19th to December 2nd), Cuffee and McGhee buoyed the offense, aided by clutch contributions from two super sophomores, Kyle Rode and Shiloh Robinson. McGhee, Cuffe and Rode each eclipsed the double-digit scoring mark twice during that span, while Robinson emerged as a reliable supporting actor. Granted, Liberty’s cupcake non-conference schedule makes it hard to extrapolate that narrow window of games over the course of an entire season. Still, Cuffee and McGhee are a trustworthy tandem on the perimeter, while Rode and Robinson are percolating with upside. As the highest ranked recruit in program history, Rode, in particular, has a high bar to clear. He faded down the stretch after some breakout performances in the non-con, but Ritchie McKay still swoons for his versatility on the wing.
Defensively, all the pieces gelled together seamlessly last year, as expected – in McKay’s Pack Line scheme, the individual parts are largely irrelevant. Cuffee’s a defensive stalwart, who bottled up multiple marquee guards last season, but this is a system-driven defense through and through. Death, taxes, and Liberty walling off the lane are certainties in this galaxy.
Yet, even in the Pack Line’s conservative structure, the Flames still forced more steals than anyone else in the league for the second year in a row. Homesley and Baxter-Bell were the thickest of thieves - without them, Liberty must rely on getting stops the traditional way.
McKay’s parlayed the recent program boon into another standout recruiting class, headlined by Isiah Warfield and Jonathan Jackson. This package duo is cut from the 3-and-D mold, and should be useful rotational pieces right away. However, the point guard position still remains a mystery. This could manifest in an in-season tryout between Chris Parker and Drake Dobbs, as indicated by McKay in Blue Ribbon. Even if they struggle early on, McGhee and Cuffee’s veteran presence will act as training wheels for Parker and Dobbs, as will McKay’s balanced half-court offense. I’d comment on their effectiveness in the open floor, but pushing the tempo is essentially forbidden in McKay’s kingdom…
Despite leading the conference in steals last year, Liberty REFUSED to capitalize in transition. Here’s a crazy stat: Per hoop-math.com, only 10% of Liberty’s shots last season came in transition, the lowest rate in the country. Half-court execution is the bible in Lynchburg. Disobey at your own risk.
Bottom Line: The golden generation has come and gone, but McKay’s effectively leveraged the steam of momentum in to acquiring a potent new crop of talent. Success breeds success, as they say. This burgeoning freshmen and sophomore class faces the daunting task of following the lead of their predecessors. It's not to up to prior year standards, at least not yet, but the Flames will still burn bright. The question is, will it be bright enough to secure a third consecutive ASUN title…
Tier 2
3. Florida Gulf Coast
Key Returners: Jalen Warren, Caleb Catto, Justus Rainwater, Sam Gagliardi
Key Losses: Tracy Hector, Zach Scott
Key Newcomers: Dom London (JUCO), Victor Rosa, Luis Rolon
Lineup:
Outlook: Sandy beaches. Endless sun. Balmy temperatures.
There are certainly worse places to coach college basketball than Fort Myers, Florida, Michael Fly’s home since 2010. A longtime helper to Andy Enfield and Joe Dooley, Fly paid his dues to earn the chair he’s in now. During Fly’s tutelage as an assistant, 20 win seasons became par for the course. His fingerprints were all over that impressive stretch run from 2013 to 2018.
But since then, the Eagles have nosedived under Fly’s tenure as boss. What gives?
Injuries are one thing, a cruel act of the Basketball Gods. Those don’t fall on Fly. But, doubling down on that excuse last year would be a reach. One might point to last summer’s roster overhaul and the relative inexperience as the iceberg that sunk last season’s ship. Again, a partial pass is warranted here – but roster management falls under the umbrella of a head coach’s job responsibilities, regardless of the extraneous circumstances.
Now, it’s year 3, the make-or-break season for newly appointed coaches looking to make their move. By all accounts, this Eagles’ rendition is not only healthy but also largely similar to last year, with seemingly zero outbound transfer or graduation impact.
No one expects Fly to recreate the ‘Dunk City’ magic circa 2015 on an annual basis. But, consistently churning out 15 to 20-win seasons is where Fly needs to get before he can cozy up to that beachfront view for the long-term…
Fly regurgitated those depth and experience themes in his interview with Blue Ribbon as reason for his year 3 optimism. Last season, the Eagles’ pace came to a screeching halt, at least by Dunk City’s frenetic standards, checking in with the 309th longest average possession length in the country, per KenPom. Part of this is a function of the environment – as alluded to countless times throughout this preview, the ASUN is one of the slowest conferences in America.
This is why last year’s turnover epidemic was so befuddling. It wasn’t like FGCU recklessly raced the ball up the court, usually a cause for high-risk passes and careless giveaways – though, that did happen as well. Rather, the bigger problem was the Eagles’ anemic execution in the half-court. They couldn’t solve the myriad of unique defensive fronts seen around the league, telegraphing passes and trying to thread the needle far too often. Even more perplexing, the struggles were amplified against man-to-man – per Synergy, FGCU’s offensive efficiency against man defenses ranked as the 8th worst in the entire country.
Enter Jalen Warren, the Eagles’ incendiary enigma. In Fly’s spread-out attack, Warren’s the head of the snake and has unbounded freedom to wheel and deal as he pleases. Fly loves to clears out the floor for Warren, via pick-n-roll or an isolation situation, and let him infiltrate the belly of the defense, which sets up drive and dish kick outs for open 3s.
This is where Warren’s decision making faltered last year. The former lauded JUCO product coughed up the rock four or more times in 10 games last season, wasting away precious offensive possessions.
In many ways, Caleb Catto was the saving grace for the Eagles’ offense. Catto started the season as Warren’s deputy creator, but he quietly became FGCU’s most consistent contributor down the stretch. At 6’5, Catto’s longer and more versatile than Warren, though not quite as dynamic off the dribble. He’s also a knockdown shooter, which makes him a proficient off the ball complement to the ball dominant Warren. This tandem should form a prolific 1-2 punch, but the art of the possible won’t be realized until Warren irons out his efficiency kinks.
The Eagles’ complementary pieces are all sound, adept shooters and capable defenders. Sam Gagliardi and Cyrus Largie are the incumbents on the perimeter, while Justus Rainwater and Dakota Rivers are back to man the middle up front. Rainwater and Rivers (who I’m officially dubbing ‘the Waterworks Crew’) are two of the top shot blockers in the league. All four returners should retain their spots on the rotation, but the newcomers are where the upside lies.
From a pure pedigree perspective, it’s tough to top the resumes of Franco Miller (Ole Miss transfer), Dom London (JUCO All-American Honorable Mention) and Victor Rosa (3-star from Puerto Rico). That’s not even considering Luis Rolon, another Puerto Rican import, who Fly praised to no avail in the Blue Ribbon write up. London and Rosa, the two sharpshooters of the bunch, will be licking their chops running alongside Warren and Catto.
Austin Peay transfer Eli Abaev is the other notable newcomer, who could create some tough lineup decisions for Fly. The 6’8 workhorse is a crafty scorer around the block, though not as explosive vertically as Rainwater or Rivers. Abaev’s offensive skillset pairs nicely with either member of the Waterworks Crew, so he might have the upper hand on a starting spot out of the gate.
Bottom Line: Continuity, experience and top-tier talent. It’s all here this season, just waiting to be weaponized by Fly and his staff. If all breaks right, the Eagles could shatter this Tier 2 ceiling and jockey with Lipscomb and Liberty for the ASUN title belt. For now, the cynic inside me will cling to the most likely outcome, somewhere in the neighborhood of 3rd to 5th place.
4. North Florida
Key Returners: Carter Hendricksen
Key Losses: J.T. Escobar, Ivan Gandia-Rosa, Garrett Sams, Wajid Aminu
Key Newcomers: Jose Placer (UMBC), Alonde LeGrand (Detroit), Chaz Lanier, Jacob Crews, Jadyn Parker, Jonathan Aybar, Garrett Hursey
Lineup:
Outlook: Before Liberty and Lipscomb invaded the ASUN’s upper echelon, the Ospreys soared above the pack. Three lackluster seasons in a row from 2017-2019 slowly nudged UNF to the back burner, but the Ospreys relished as a pseudo ‘underdog’ last season, overshadowed by the Liberty and Lipscomb buzz. 21 overall and 13 league wins later, order has officially been restored. Or has it? Losing the quartet of J.T. Escobar, Ivan Gandia-Rosa, Garrett Sams and Wajid Aminu clips precious feathers off the Ospreys’ wings. Down four key starters from last year’s regular season co-champion, North Florida will have to scrap and claw to stay among the ASUN’s elite.
Fortunately, the 3-point shot can be the great equalizer to any talent drain. Matthew Driscoll’s philosophy is pretty simple: 3s are worth more than 2s. In essence, the Driscoll says, “we’ll let you have the latter. But we’re going to win the battle of bonus land.” If you can stroke it from distance, chances are Driscoll will find a place for you. But simply trotting out a 5-man band of stand-still gunners isn’t going to cut it.
A premier set up man, such Dallas Moore or Ivan Gandia-Rosa, is of the utmost importance in this system. Since 2014, the Osprey’s offense has been in good hands with Moore and Gandia-Rosa in the point guard stead. For context, over the last seven seasons, only one time has North Florida played without Moore or Gandia-Rosa in the lineup.
So, are we to expect business as usual with Emmanuel Adedoyin or Jose Placer taking the reins, the presumed co-successors at point guard? Driscoll seems to think so, according to his commentary in Blue Ribbon’s offseason interview. It may sound farfetched, but Driscoll sees no cause for concern. Look no further than the transition from Moore to Gandia-Rosa back in 2018, before Gandia-Rosa was a household name. Akin to an NFL rookie quarterback serving as an understudy to a seasoned veteran, Adedoyin and Placer each got a front row seat to Gandia-Rosa’s point guard proficiency last year.
To help smooth the offensive transition without Gandia-Rosa’s steady hand at the wheel, UNF has two options. In half court settings, Driscoll can retune the offense to run through Carter Hendricksen, the Osprey’s triple-threat swing man. Few players will shoulder a heavier burden than Hendricksen this season, the lone returning starter from last year’s team. Like a queen on a chess board, Hendricksen’s diverse offensive tool kit can be weaponized in a variety of ways. Recently green lit Detroit transfer Alonde LeGrand could also assume a similar ‘point forward’ type role on an ad hoc basis, but he’s nowhere near as dynamic as Hendricksen.
The Ospreys could also destress the half court offense by relentlessly hunting transition 3s. Last year, the Ospreys posted a 60% effective field goal percentage on fast break opportunities, the 24th highest clip in the nation, per Synergy. Without a Gandia-Rosa-type creator to free up shooters in the half-court, Ryan Burkhardt and other Osprey shooters might find more real estate out on the break, against a backpedaling and unset defense.
On the other side of the ball, as teased in the intro, North Florida polices a zero tolerate policy on surrendering open 3s. For Atlantic Sun diehards, the Ospreys’ vintage 1-3-1 zone needs no introduction – for the rest of you, please refer to my colleague Jim’s intricate breakdown of the gimmicky scheme in last year’s preview. Driscoll’s zone is designed to cover up height and length deficiencies inside, but without Wajid Aminu’s long limbs in the middle this year, the Osprey’s interior defense could be a sieve. Hendricksen is a stout rebounder and both Dorian James and Josh Endicott are formidable reinforcements, but Aminu was unequivocally the Ospreys’ secret weapon on this end of the floor last year. Driscoll might consider fast tracking Jadyn Parker and Jonathan Aybar, two rookies with serious defensive upside, to fill the interior vacancy left behind by Aminu.
Driscoll will occasionally sprinkle in some man-to-man looks, but the chasm between the Ospreys’ defensive effectiveness in man and zone was stark last year - per Synergy, the Ospreys’ man-to-man defense ranked 339th nationally on a points per possession basis. A knee-jerk reaction to that putrid performance might call for Driscoll to abandon man-to-man altogether. The counterargument is that over relying on zone removes the unpredictability variable from the equation – in other words, switching back and forth in-game has inherent value in befuddling opposing offenses.
Bottom Line: The synchronized graduation of four program pillars leaves Carter Hendricksen and a band of unknowns to pick up the pieces. I can’t underscore enough how vital Hendricksen is to this team. Offensively, he’ll be the marked man on opposing scouting reports. Defensively, he’ll be the main brick in the interior wall. Questions remain unanswered at point guard, as the Ospreys will need at least one or two creators two stick right away. Gandia-Rosa put shots on a platter for the Osprey marksmen last season, which now falls in the hands of Adedoyin and Placer.
5. Stetson
Key Returners: Rob Perry, Christiaan Jones, Mahamadou Diawara, Joel Kabimba
Key Losses: Jahlil Rawley, Kenny Aninye*
Key Newcomers: Chase Johnston (Purdue Fort Wayne), Josh Smith
*As of November 7th, Kenny Aninye was not listed on the school roster. Aninye was a full-time starter the last two seasons, which strips the Hatters’ of a key backcourt piece.
Lineup:
Outlook: For Donnie Jones, life’s too short to mess around with rebuilding. He ripped up the first two chapters of college basketballs’ ‘Rebuilding a Program For Dummies’ playbook, and skipped right to the ‘win now’ phase. The Hatters started the 2020 campaign as a cute underdog story, mustering a few admirable efforts against superior teams, only to come up a few inches short. Then, a monumental victory over South Carolina on December 30th got everyone’s attention…
From that point until February 15th, the Hatters separated themselves from the ASUN’s muck, trending closer to North Florida and Liberty’s pace at the top of the leaderboard. The chart below from Barttorvik.com proves that the Hatters played like a top-200 team over that span, spearheaded by an unforgiving defense that ranked 114th nationally during the seven-week heater:
Donnie Jones’ blueprint was exemplified in the 48-43 win over Liberty on January 25th. Undeterred by the Flames’ decorated crop of seniors, the young Hatters gave the ASUN’s premier program a dose of their own medicine. Jones doesn’t deploy the same Pack Line man-to-man defense as Liberty, but his shapeshifting matchup zone generates the same outcomes: long and frustrating possessions, which largely result in deep, contested 3s. This is partly by Jones’ design but it’s also a function of personnel - specifically, Mahamadou Diawara and Joel Kabima’s towering length inside. Interestingly enough, neither Diawara or Kabima blocked a ton of shots last season, evidence that their presence alone makes attackers think twice about venturing into the interior danger zone. Jones will often extend the zone into a full-court front, which adds another layer of complexity for A-Sun offenses to navigate.
The Hatters lean on superior positional size on the offensive end as well. Sophomore star Rob Perry and senior sidekick Christiaan Jones stand 6’4 and 6’5, respectively, forming one of the biggest backcourt duos in the league. Smartly, Perry and Jones play to their physical strengths, leveraging their size advantage to exploit undersized defenders around the rim. Collectively, Perry and Jones attempted over 200 free throws last season, trailing only Diawara and his whopping 142 freebies – per KenPom, Diawara (4th), Perry (13th) and Jones (25th) each ranked in the top-25 in individual free throw rate among all A-Sun qualifiers. Recently rejuvenated Terry Ivery is the only sub 6-foot guard on the roster but he, too, attacks the rim with reckless abandon.
Size and strength were the Hatters’ core competencies last year, and there’s no reason they should deviate from that this season. While Perry’s elite level shot making can’t be overlooked, Diawara is the muscle man who sets the tone up front. The Mali standout flexed his bulky frame, long arms and crafty touch on elder big men all season, which sets him up for a sterling sophomore campaign in 2021.
Diawara’s an underrated athlete, able to gallop in transition whenever the guards look to run. Jones hinted in Blue Ribbon that he wants to play faster this year, so Diawara won’t be left behind by a surge in pace.
Unlike North Florida, the Hatters aren’t going to bury anyone with a barrage of threes. Stetson’s long-range shooting is largely concentrated in Perry’s hands, whose 67 triples more than doubled the next highest output last year. Purdue Fort Wayne transfer Chase Johnston adds a pivotal floor spacer on the perimeter, while 3-and-D wing Wheza Panzo can stretch the floor as well.
Bottom Line: Perry and Diawara didn’t balk at asserting themselves last season, leading their fellow underclassmen by example. Donnie Jones is hoping the 2021 rookies will follow suit, while the scintillating sophomore class, headlined by Perry and Diawara, stay on their rocket ship trajectory. Much like Florida Gulf Coast, the Hatters’ ceiling is sky high. This is a cautious projection considering the auspicious talent supply at Jones’ disposal, which is now a year older and wiser. But, I’m not in the business of betting against the institutional success of Liberty, Lipscomb and North Florida, even in the face of substantial personnel turnover.
6. Jacksonville
Key Returners: Diante Wood, Mo Arnold, Tyreese Davis
Key Losses: David Bell, Destin Barnes, DeAnthony McCallum, Aamahne Santos
Key Newcomers: Dontarius James (Xavier), Kevion Nolan (Samford), Loseni Kamara (JUCO), Cameron Boozer, Zameron Boozer
Lineup:
Outlook: Even though the Dolphins fell below the .500 mark in conference play last year, it was Jasick’s highest finish in KenPom since he arrived in Jacksonville back in 2014. Unfortunately, timing is everything. The Dolphins’ subtle rise has been overshadowed by Liberty, North Florida, Lipscomb and NJIT’s ascension.
Unlike the institutional systemic frameworks seen at Liberty or Lipscomb, the Dolphins take on a new identity each and every year. Jasick’s teams shape-shift on an annual basis to prop up the strengths of the roster. For example, J.D. Notae was the influencer of the 2019 team, an electric guard who wanted to run, run and run some more. Last year, David Bell became the anchor, a 6’10 impenetrable force who, indirectly, halted the breakneck pace set by Notae the year prior.
Now, there’s nothing *good* or *bad* about this trend under Jasick. One might say this lack of stylistic consistency equates to an unclear identity, while the other side of the aisle might contend Jasick’s continuous evolution is necessary to suit the skillset of his players.
What it does mean is that the Dolphins’ success is highly correlated with its caliber of talent, which certainly took a hit this summer with Bells’ departure. Averaging a double-double is special in and of itself, but Bell’s ability to erase everything on defense elevated him to another tier. Per the chart below from hooplens.com, the Dolphins’ defense surrendered 0.06 fewer points per possessions with Bell on the floor last year. Specifically, take note of the 7% variance between the 2FG% defense with Bell on the floor (44.4%) and without Bell on the floor (51.8%).
After transferring from Ohio State back in 2019, Bell was a sleeping giant in his early days, limited to an off-the-bench spark plug role. But last year, Bell became the linchpin of the Dolphins’ defense, earning Defensive Player of the Year honors thanks to his shot swatting dominance. Despite playing a modest 25 minutes a game last season (and only 18 minutes a game the year prior), he single-handedly revived Jasick’s horrendous defensive track record.
Jasick went fishing in the high major transfer pond in hopes of finding a viable replacement for Bell. He went right back to the Buckeye state to snag Dontarius James, a sparingly used back up during his two first seasons at Xavier. Unlike Bell, James can stretch the floor with a sound jumper, and he can gobble up boards at a high rate when given the chance. However, his rim protection won’t stack up to Bell’s standards. Along with Bryce Workman, another agile 6’8 forward, Jacksonville’s revamped frontline will need to compensate for Bell’s absence with speed and mobility. That is, unless the 6’10 ‘Booze Bros’, Zameron Boozer and Cameron Boozer, expedite their development as freshmen.
The Bell story deserves so much ink because it carries large implications for Jacksonville’s prognosis, particularly on the defensive end. That said, don’t snooze on Tyreese Davis and Kevion Nolan, two All-Conference caliber players who sat idle last year. Davis was poised for a monster sophomore campaign last year, until a knee injury in the 2019 season finale delayed that destiny. Nolan, on the other hand, sat out last season after transferring in from Samford. This is a unique situation in which two of the Dolphins’ top dogs enter the 2021 campaign flying under the radar. Alongside Mo Arnold (All Rookie Team last year), Diante Wood (former Alabama transfer) and Loseni Kamara (JUCO powerhouse Indian Hills transfer), Jasick will head to battle with a deep and experienced backcourt.
Bottom Line: The Dolphins are once again flushed with length and athleticism, but the skill level still leaves a lot to be desired. Nolan is the only competent outside shooter and, unless Workman trampolines into a double-double threat (which is possible), the offense will be highly predicated on getting the ball to the rim.
Defensively, well, I won’t be a broken record. Bell meant the world to the Dolphins’ D. Can Workman or the ‘Booze Bros’ fill his shoes? It’s a tall order, but, if they can solidify the interior fortress, Jacksonville could encroach on top-3 territory.
7. North Alabama
Key Returners: Jamari Blackmon, Emanuel Littles, Mervin James, Payton Youngblood, C.J. Brim, , James Anderson II
Key Losses: Christian Agnew
Key Newcomers: Isaac Chatman (JUCO), Detalian ‘Dee’ Brown, Jonathan Breeland, Jr. (JUCO)
Lineup:
Outlook: If there’s one thing we’ve learned from North Alabama’s first two seasons in the big leagues, it’s that they belong. Tony Pujol led the Lions to a 15-16 conference record last year, clawing to a 5th place finish at 8-8. True to their mascot, the Lions’ heart shined through late in the year, finishing the regular season on a 3-game win streak, abruptly correcting a five-game losing skid to end the year on a high note. Inexperience always equates to inconsistency, but Pujol managed to weather the storm at pivotal moments throughout the season.
Pujol’s instilled a junkyard dog mentality in UNA’s DNA. The Lions are small in height only, compensating with speed, aggression and unrelenting tenacity on both ends of the floor. Per KenPom, only four teams in America fielded a shorter roster last season. Despite their lack of size, the Lions are effective gang rebounders, mitigating any 2nd and 3rd shot opportunities on the boards. Emanuel Littles is a hungry hungry hippo on the glass, a wiry 6’7 forward who led the ASUN in defensive rebounding on a per possession basis last year – while the Lions rebound well as a collective, it’s Littles who does most of the heavy lifting. Fortunately, the only two games Littles missed last year happened to fall against two relatively undersized opponents, Morehead State and Mississippi Valley State. Put simply, Littles is the spine of the Lions’ frontline and an irreplaceable piston in Pujol’s system.
However, Littles’ bouncy presence in the middle doesn’t exactly produce a scarecrow-effect inside. Behind the Lions’ extended defensive pressure, there’s no backstop inside to provide cover. Pujol’s coaching roots tie back to Anthony Grant and the esteemed ‘havoc’ brand of basketball emboldened at VCU. In a league littered with conservative, methodical speeds, Pujol’s renegade style sticks out like a sore thumb. This contrarian approach is effective at times, but it does come at a cost. Last year, UNA posted the highest foul rate in the league for a second year in a row. Juxtaposing that clip next to the Lions’ top-3 steal rate proves that risk is producing modest returns, but not at the ROI Pujol would probably like, especially with how little they are up front.
Though the offensive identity is less distinct, the aforementioned VCU comparison holds up on this end of the floor as well. The Lions drive it downhill as hard as any team in the league, keyed by disciplined floor spacing and snappy ball movement. Rising sophomore swingman Mervin James and jitterbug point guard CJ Brim, while vastly different players, are both fearless slashers in their own regard. UNA’s rim-seeking assertiveness flips the referees from enemy to ally on offense – the Lions’ free throw rate ranked tops in the ASUN last year and a tick outside the top-30 nationally.
Unfortunately, this stubborn pursuit of the goal isn’t always right sized for the ASUN, a league where zone defense is commonplace. While it still gets the job done, the drive-happy attack is at a slight disadvantage in this environment, particularly in certain matchups. This is why Jamari Blackmon is UNA’s messiah on offense, the Lions’ primary playmaker and lone reliable shot maker from long distance. While the hyperactive James could move into the offensive driver’s seat this year (he was dominant down the stretch last season), Blackmon’s the more reliable and efficient scoring outlet. Blackmon will benefit from improved floor spacing in the half court, courtesy of Aleksa Matic and rookie Detalian ‘Dee’ Brown’s shooting prowess.
As trivial as it sounds, experience may be the dynamic that puts UNA on an upward trajectory this year. Relative to the baby-faced teams of 2019 and 2020, the projected contributors in 2021 are relatively seasoned. The Lions’ most heavily used players the last two years were freshmen: James posted a team high 25.2% usage rate last year, surpassing both Blackmon and Christian Agnew, UNA’s top usage guys in 2019.
Agnew departs, but five of the Lions’ top six players from last year are back in action. Payton Youngblood is the X-factor, an often-injured wing who slipped into a reserve role last season. While more than just a standstill shooter, Youngblood’s ability to cash in from downtown could be a revelation – he couldn’t buy a bucket last year, but he’s a confident shooter with a textbook stroke. Isaac Chatman is another promising JUCO addition, an electric 6’6 wing who led his team in rebounding last season.
Bottom Line: The Lions have finished 284th back-to-back years in KenPom’s overall rankings. Is this the year they bust through that glass ceiling? I'm bullish on the Blackmon / Littles / James triumvirate and the ancillary parts remain sturdy, even on the heels of Agnew’s departure, the Lions’ leading scorer last year.
All things considered, I’m anticipating a familiar ending to the 2021 season, one in which a logjam forms in the middle of the ASUN standings. Last year, Jacksonville finished in a two-way tie for sixth place at 7-9, which is right where I’d set the bar for North Alabama this year.
8. Bellarmine
Key Returners: Dylan Penn, CJ Fleming, Pedro Bradshaw, Ethan Claycomb, Alec Pfreim
Key Losses: Alex Cook, Ben Weyer, Parker Chitty, Coby Penny
Key Newcomers: Sam Devault (Austin Peay)
Lineup:
Outlook: Uh oh. Another rando just showed up to the DI party…
Much to the pleasure of ASUN competitors, Louisville-based Bellarmine will officially replace NJIT in the 9-team league. No longer will the Sun Belt squads have to make the inconvenient trip up to Jersey, as Louisville sits right in the heart of the conference’s geographical footprint. As refreshing as this is for the rest of the ASUN’s incumbent members, they’re about to find out that Bellarmine is far less convenient between the end lines. Led by legendary coach Scott Davenport, an assistant at Louisville once upon a time, the Knights’ Division II reputation precedes them: 11 straight tournament appearances, including a final four appearance in 2011 and 2017.
Props to my colleague Jim for his timely reminder of the fully loaded Massey ratings, which rates Division I, Division II, Division III and junior college programs on the same scale. While far from perfect, this rubric helps us evaluate Bellarmine’s 2020 squad in the context of the entire collegiate universe. Amongst DII teams, Bellarmine ranked 14th overall, propped up by its 6th ranked defensive unit. Broadening the scope to all teams, Bellarmine checked in at 289th overall, two spots behind Jacksonville and ahead of Stetson, NJIT, North Alabama, Kennesaw State and Florida Gulf Coast. Thus, analytic projections would’ve appraised the Knights as the 5th best team in the conference last season.
Louisville and Notre Dame can attest to what a thorn in the side these Knights can be. The Irish and Cardinals saw Bellarmine up close and personal last year, both narrowly escaping the Knights by a 10-point margin on their respective home floors. Bellarmine actually led the Cardinals at the half, silencing a stunned KFC Yum! Center for much of the afternoon.
This year, unfamiliar and unsuspecting defenses better be ready. Failing to prepare for the Knights’ paper-shredder offense is a recipe for disaster, as Louisville almost learned the hard way.
There’s nothing fancy about Davenport’s offense. Passing, cutting, shooting and passing are the key ingredients.
Did I say passing twice?
In one sense, shooters and cutters are the benefactors of Bellarmine’s ping-pong passing ability. The Knights tallied 17 assists per game as a team last year, which ranked in the top-25 in Division II. The Louisville-based Courier Journal illuminated Davenport’s obsession with ball reversals, aimed at getting the defense swaying side to side before attacking. Even Chris Mack was impressed after the bout between Bellarmine and Louisville last season.
“We are talking about 11, 12, 13, passes before a guy drives the ball,” Mack said at the time.
The perpetual movement preys on defensive miscommunication and slow lateral agility. Per Synergy, ‘spot ups’ (36%) and ‘cuts’ (15%) accounted for over half of the Knights’ shot attempts last season, rates that would’ve ranked 3rd and 1st, respectively, among all Division I teams.
The Knights’ personnel was particularly hard to guard last year because inverse forwards Alex Cook (17 / 6 guy) and Ben Weyer could both stroke it from the perimeter. This duo drew shot blockers away from their paint comfort zone inside, opening up driving and cutting lanes around the rim. Collectively, the Cook / Weyer co-op tore apart defenses with pristine passing and cerebral decision making – the clip below highlights one such example, where Weyer threads the needle to hit a darting cutter for an easy lay in (pardon the cut off - trust me, it falls):
Without Cook and Weyer, this new look frontline will give back some size and shooting, but the Pedro Bradshaw, Ethan Claycomb and Sam DeVault trio can do damage in a variety of other ways. Bradshaw is a quintessential jack-of-all-trades hybrid forward (started at Belmont and Eastern Kentucky), who takes pride in his role in the offense:
“For the most part, it’s a lot of cutting,” Bradshaw said. “It’s a lot of cutting and a lot of movement, man. It gets repetitive, but it definitely works.”
DeVault, a prototypical stretch-4 from Austin Peay, will likely platoon with Claycomb at the second forward spot, alongside Bradshaw. Collectively, this group should thrive as cogs in the machine, while the backcourt shoulders the bulk of the scoring load. Maestro Dylan Penn returns as the Knights’ easy button in late shot clock situations, a refreshing dose of individual creation to this rigid, team-based system. Even though the scouting report underscores Penn’s one-dimensional scoring arsenal (he simply can’t shoot), he still finds way to knife through defenses and finish with either hand.
CJ Fleming is the perennial perimeter marksman, who connected on 40% of his 136 attempts from downtown last year. Fleming needs to sustain that rate on an even higher volume this season with Weyer, Cook and Parker Chitty all departing.
Bottom Line: As savvy as Davenport is with the clipboard, it can’t be understated how vital Cook and Weyer were on both ends of the floor. They were true triple-threats, able to shoot, drive and dish from both the top of the key and wing. It’s as if they were interchangeable with the guards, a versatility that rendered less fleet of foot forwards ineffective on the defensive end. The Knights will miss that element in 2021, but Davenport has a long track record of adapting to the circumstances and molding players into the multi-skilled archetypes that’s bred success for over a decade and a half.
Tier 3
9. Kennesaw State
Key Returners: Terrell Burden, Jamie Lewis, Armani Harris, Antonio Spencer
Key Losses: Tyler Hooker, Bryson Lockley, Ugo Obineke
Key Newcomers: Chris Youngblood, Brandon Stroud, Kasen Jennings, Spencer Rodgers (JUCO), Alex Peterson (JUCO), Nate Springs*** (Ohio)
***needs waiver
Lineup:
Outlook: There’s no need to sugarcoat it. The Owls were a hot mess last season from start to finish. It was a rude awakening for first year head honcho Amir Abdur-Rahim. Touted as a magnet on the recruiting trail, particularly around the Peach State, Abdur-Rahim had no time last summer to restock the talent cupboard. He swooped up a few commits late in the recruiting cycle but, ultimately, he was largely limited to Al Skinner’s leftovers.
The Owls were always going to be bad. But flaming hot garbage bad? We didn’t see that one coming…
In the last decade, only three teams in Division I college basketball managed to post an effective field goal percentage below 39.5%:
Howard in 2012-13
Grambling in 2014-15
Kennesaw last year
The Kennesaw Bricklayers ranked dead last in both 3-point FG% and 2-point FG% last year. It’s hard to fathom two offenses worse than the Owls, but Maryland Eastern Shore and Arkansas Pine Bluff told Kennesaw to hold their beers.
Injuries decimated the Owls’ continuity, as four key contributors were out of commission all throughout the year. Tyler Hooker, Kennesaw’s only offensive hope, missed four games in the middle of the season. An ACL tear put point guard Terrell Burden on the shelf for the second half of the year. A foot fracture stunted Armani Harris’ sneaky ascension into full-time starter just 9 games into the season. The margin for error was already minuscule, but the festering injuries were the straws that broke the camel’s back, exposing the ugly warts of an already talent-depleted roster.
The roster fluidity was out of Abdur-Rahim’s control. However, his lack of offensive innovation didn’t alleviate the aforementioned talent deficiencies.
Under Abdur-Rahim’s rule, it’s a playmaker’s paradise on offense. He lets the guards probe and attack the defense at their discretion, enabled by frequent pick-n-roll action to initiate ball and player movement. The problem is this: absent a dynamic playmaker (or two) initiating the action, offensive rhythm came to a screeching halt last year. Per the chart below, the pick-n-roll centric offense hung Hooker and Jamie Lewis, the Owls’ top two creators, out to dry.
Defensively, the Owls weren’t much better. Abdur-Rahim did a decent job see-sawing between man-to-man and zone to keep opponents on their toes, but there was zero resistance at the rim to deter drivers, cutters and post men.
Optimism for a turnaround in chapter 2 of the Adbur-Rahim regime is well founded. There’s a percolating youth movement taking hold in Kennesaw, a byproduct of Abdur-Rahim’s vaunted recruiting prowess. The standouts in the 2021 rookie class are a pair of high school sweethearts, Chris Youngblood and Brandon Stroud. The 3-star prospect twofer hails from East Coweta high school, where they combined for 36 points and 18 rebounds a game last season. Youngblood is the shining star of this package deal, a physical power wing at 6’4. He especially excels in transition, an avenue the Owls largely ignored last season while stubbornly banging their heads against the wall trying to score in the half court.
If Youngblood is versatile, then the 6’6 Stroud is hyper-versatile. Dubbed as the Owls’ Swiss Army Knife by Abdur-Rahim in Blue Ribbon’s offseason preview, Stroud’s late growth spurt will make him a weapon in the offense. The southpaw is an adept slasher and shooter, particularly from the midrange area, but he’s an effective distributor as well:
Somehow, Kasen Jennings is an afterthought in this star-studded recruiting class, another 3-star recruit from Georgia. Akin to Youngblood’s frame, Jennings is a big, sturdy guard, which should yield immediate dividends on the defensive end. Though not a pure point guard, Jennings can handle and create, so he’s worthy of filling in for Burden at the 1 as needed. Demetrius Rivers is the fourth Georgian freshman joining the fold, a late pick up who some feel was criminally under-recruited.
The Owls’ fresh blood also offers experience in the form of two JUCO standouts, Spencer Rodgers and Alex Peterson, and Ohio transfer Nate Springs. Rodgers cracked JUCORecruiting’s top-100 prospect list, while Peterson stuffed the stat sheet at Missouri State University-West to the tune of 14 points and 7 boards a game – though, his team was a dismal 10-21, so excitement his transition up to Division I should be tamed. Springs, on the other hand, could be a lifesaver inside, a long 6’10 rim protector who was hampered by injuries last season. He only blocked three shots last season in his limited time on the floor, but he’s undoubtedly a net upgrade to last year’s brittle front line.
Bottom Line: Beware of the Owls’ youth movement, folks. This may not be the season it sticks but watch out for a few head-turning performances that foreshadow the bright future ahead. A rejuvenated and healthy roster will help in the near-term, particularly for Burden and Harris, while Lewis, the former Wake Forest transfer, should benefit from last year’s growing pains. Harris’ boom-or-bust production and repulsive inefficiency (Lewis shot 29.5% from inside the arc last year) should improve demonstrably alongside a potent, though young, supporting cast in 2021, which will lay the groundwork for a sturdy foundation of the future.