-Matt Cox
Sandwiched in-between the mayhem of March and the majesty of Turkey Week lies the dog days of college basketball season: conference play. For us college hoops handicappers, this is our version of OTAs. Opening lines are sharp. Subsequent line movements are sharper. Once initial lines are posted, the vicious battle between the bookmakers and professional bettors ensues – and it doesn’t take long for the dust to settle…
Like a defenseless piñata, the opening prices are repeatedly whacked by eager first movers, leaving layman gamblers with nothing but bare bones scraps of value. No one wants to be the square holding an Arkansas -3 ticket when the sharps and syndicates are flaunting Pig Suey -1.
For many gamblers, this unsettling sensation is becoming a common occurrence thanks to the hyperactive overnight markets, where prices fluctuate like a penny stock on crack. Even if you manage to win the mad dash for the best price, beating the line is just half the battle. You can be the only person on planet Earth with Arkansas -1, but if the Razorbacks lose by 30, the oddsmakers don’t pat you on the back or grant you a pity refund – your once savvy wager is just as worthless as the other squares who foolishly took Arkansas -3.
Over the last month, this phenomenon has eroded away the gratification and confidence I once relished in from locking in the best line early. Those who track our 3MW consensus plays on Twitter can corroborate our coin flip performance recently (apologies again for the temporary suspension – a rerelease date has yet to be scheduled), which mirrors my own personal betting trend over the past two seasons. And based on sporadic scans of the gambling Twittersphere, it seems I’m not the only one fuming with frustration of being stuck on the betting treadmill.
I recently stumbled upon the following tweet, which is a succinct summation of the various phases of handicapping specific to the basketball season.
Thanks to Action Network’s handy dandy bet tracker tool, I was able to compile a similar visual for both my own personal betting performance and our 3MW consensus performance for last season and this season. From there, I took a simple average of the following four numbers at two week time intervals from the beginning of the season to mid February: 1) 2018-19 Matt unit return, 2) 2019-20 Matt unit return, 3) 2018-19 3MW Consensus unit return and 4) 2019-20 3MW Consensus unit return. This average at each time interval is plotted in the black dotted ‘trend line’ below.
The prevailing point is simple, evidenced by the declining slope of the trend line from January to February: it’s freakin’ hard to win right now. Sustaining the same rate of success as early in the year is nearly impossible, a dynamic that’s not unique to college basketball. Oddsmakers across all sports obviously get wiser as they acquire more data and information over the course of a season.
However, there are two dynamics at play that are unique to the college basketball betting markets, both of which are at the expense of the casual bettor. The first of which I already teased above: excessive activity in the overnight markets.
To test just how lively the overnights are at this point in the season, I charted the line movement last week on every game from Wednesday through Saturday (2/5 – 2/8). Specifically, I documented the opening line from the night before and then the line as of 9:30 AM CST the day of the game.
To contextualize the frequency and severity of line movements from this past weekend, I performed a similar exercise with the same time frame last year – that is, the second weekend in February from Wednesday through Saturday. Because I didn’t have the lines archived from the morning of for last year’s sample, I used the final closing lines as a substitute. While this adjustment was due to a data limitation, it actually tells a compelling story about the uptick in line fluctuations from last year to this year.
As the chart below indicates, line movement frequency (‘Line Movement Freq.’) and severity (‘Avg. Line Movement per Game’) have both risen this season. Again, keep in mind the 2019-20 column is based on movement up until 9:30 AM CST while the 2018-19 column is based on movement all the way up until tip off.
The way to interpret the two key figures above is fairly simple. This season, 69% of all opening lines moved at least a half point from the time they were posted the night before to 9:30 AM CST the next morning. Additionally, roughly 15% of those movements (22 + 5 / 183) were by two or more points. In my opinion, that’s a staggering rate for such a substantial line move, especially for this late in the season when the market is already quite efficient.
This brings me to the second dynamic bettors are facing right now, another headwind that’s making it increasingly difficult to find an edge in the current market landscape: smarter oddsmakers, specifically on the extra board.
Up until last season, the following nine conferences could not be bet on until conference tournament time: America East, Atlantic Sun, Big South, MEAC, Northeast Conference, Patriot League, Southland, SWAC and WAC. Last year was the first time all 353 teams were lined consistently throughout the course of the season. Predictably, this manifested in massive line movements in the overnight markets for the aforementioned nine low-major conferences. Now, in year two of making lines for these lesser known teams, the books have had a whole season to hone their pricing accuracy in these less efficient markets.
In conclusion, here’s where we stand. We are at a point in the year where it’s already inherently hard to win, just due to the sheer volume of games already in the books, which gives the linesmakers an information advantage in setting their opening line. Combine that with the additional year of experience the books have under their belt setting lines for nine of the 32 conferences on the extra board, which only sharpens those specific opening lines. Finally, the professional action on the overnight market is rampant with activity, which further sharpens those already sharp lines in the first place. To bring it all back to the intro, there’s just not much left to chew on when the dust settles.
Our advice? Bet selectively. The November and non-conference gravy train has come to a halt. Any intimate knowledge you think you have on a certain team or conference, the oddsmakers are already in the know. This is why betting gobs of money on the Super Bowl never made any sense to me, and why betting aggressively on college hoops during the latter part of conference play is equally as foolish.