-Jim Root
Note: Predicted conference standings may not line up exactly with our Top 40 rankings; this is because Top 40 were ranked via consensus voting, while individual conference ranks are up to the specific writer.
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Collin Gillespie, R Sr., Villanova
Coach of the Year: Kevin Willard, Seton Hall
Newcomer of the Year: Kadary Richmond, So., Seton Hall
Freshman of the Year: Aminu Mohammed, Georgetown
Tier 2
2. UConn
See full preview here: #26 in our Top 40 countdown
3. Seton Hall
See full preview here: #38 in our Top 40 countdown
4. Xavier
See full preview here: #39 in our Top 40 countdown
Tier 3
5. St. John’s
Key Returners: Posh Alexander, Julian Champagnie, Dylan Addae-Wusu
Key Losses: Rasheem Dunn (transfer) Isiah Moore (transfer), Vince Cole (transfer), Marcellus Earlington (transfer), Josh Roberts (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Montez Mathis (Rutgers), Aaron Wheeler (Purdue), Joel Soriano (Fordham), Stef Smith (Vermont), Tareq Coburn (Hofstra), Rafael Pinzon, O’mar Stanley, Drissa Traore
Lineup:
Outlook: Figuring out how to evaluate last year’s St. John’s season is a mystery. On one hand, the Johnnies missed the NCAA Tournament and finished with a slightly worse ranking at KenPom (69) than in 2020 (66), indicating that not much progress was made. On the other hand, though, Mike Anderson (shockingly? Questionably?) won Big East Coach of the Year, and both Julian Champagnie and Posh Alexander emerged as present and future stars in the league. The Red Storm rallied from a 2-6 start to conference play to finish 10-9, aided by a six-game winning streak that featured huge victories at UConn and over Villanova, and that forward momentum has stirred quite a bit of optimism in Queens.
Champagnie’s return is by far the most crucial storyline of the offseason. The versatile forward went through the NBA Draft process, and his twin brother Justin actually made the leap. Julian opted to come back, though, giving the Johnnies a clear alpha scorer and all-conference representative after his explosion last year. He has one of the smoothest releases in the entire sport, helping him shoot 38% from deep and 89% from the free throw line, and his off the bounce game is so tough to stop thanks to his size and ball skills. This is just too tough from a 6’8 guy (shot selection aside):
Foes have a hard time finding the right matchup for him, and in St. John’s free flowing, transition-heavy offense, Champagnie gets plenty of chances to make plays in space.
Alexander is an equally devastating transition player, but he does it with a more brute force approach. The six-foot bowling ball punishes smaller guards with his physicality, and his pitbull demeanor on defense sets the tone for Anderson’s pressure. He put Collin Gillespie in the torture chamber during the aforementioned win over Villanova, embarrassing the All-American on multiple occasions, and he shared the Big East Defensive Player of the Year award:
Posh is one of those rare point guards that perfectly embodies his team’s style of play: aggressively downhill all the time. His high school teammate Dylan Addae-Wusu, a basketball player in a linebacker’s body, is a similar story. The stoutly-built Addae-Wusu is another perfect defensive fit in Anderson’s system, hounding opponents on the ball and flying around the court as a help defender/trapper. Both guys need to develop more of a perimeter game (both shot sub-30% from the 3P line), but they’re still mega-effective in their current roles.
Due to a flurry of transfers, those are the only three rotation veterans. Anderson was just as active bringing pieces in, though, and all will likely fill roles for a team that likes to use its bench while playing an exceedingly quick tempo. Fortunately for those newcomers and St. John’s, Anderson’s system isn’t overly complex: first priority is to get a quick shot via run-out, but if that’s not there, the Red Storm look to spread the floor and slash into gaps off the bounce. That’s usually complemented by some off-ball screening to distract potential help defenders, but it’s ultimately more about the individual talents of guys like Alexander and Champagnie.
Two mid-major guards add some offensive pop in that regard. Vermont’s Stef Smith is an excellent shot-maker who is also capable of playing on the ball at times, and late addition Tareq Coburn from Hofstra is a lethal southpaw who is more of a catch-and-shoot or catch-and-attack type. He’s at his best when playing with other threats, so alongside Champagnie and Alexander, he should be a key piece as he returns home to Queens.
Four other transfers should reinforce a defense that struggled when it couldn’t force turnovers. The Red Storm finished last in the Big East in defensive rebound rate, and while that’s always an issue with Anderson’s teams, it certainly cannot hurt to add a glass eater like Joel Soriano to the mix. A truly massive human, Soriano ranked 16th and 29th in offensive and defensive rebound rate, respectively, and though he’s not an elite shot-blocker, his sheer size will continue to bother opponents at the rim. JUCO transfer Esahia Nyiwe is more of a true shot-blocker after carrying the interior defense for an excellent Clarendon College squad in 2019-20. They’ll need it: per Hoop-Math, the Johnnies allowed 42.5% of opponents’ shots to come at the rim, ranking 322nd nationally. Making those shots more difficult would at least be a start to upgrading the defense.
Meanwhile, wing Montez Mathis and forward Aaron Wheeler both bring outstanding size and length at their positions from the Big Ten, and both guys may find the system to be quite freeing for their athletic talents after being in more structured, half-court settings. If those two guys start with Alexander, Champagnie, and Soriano, St. John’s will have a huge lineup capable of defending in both the full court and the half court. Freshman teammates Rafael Pinzon and Drissa Traore will add even more depth behind them; hailing from powerhouse Long Island Lutheran (last year: Andre Curbelo, Zed Key), Anderson may be hopeful they can quickly out-perform their middling recruiting rankings.
Bottom Line: Even with a ton of turnover in the “role player” parts of the roster, the upside is considerable for this St. John’s team. Two clear stars remain, with Champagnie being capable of ultimately pushing for All-American honors, and Anderson’s transfer additions seem to project well into his style, even though most of them played in vastly different systems at their previous stops. If the defense finds a way to defend the interior better while continuing to viciously pressure on the perimeter and Smith/Coburn provide enough scoring pop alongside Posh/Champagnie, then the widespread NCAA Tournament hopes of the fanbase should prove reasonable. It’s not an easy road, but it’s one Anderson has traveled many times before (nine tournament bids in 19 years as a head coach).
6. Butler
Key Returners: Chuck Harris, Aaron Thompson, Jair Bolden, Bryce Nze, Bryce Golden, Bo Hodges, Myles Tate
Key Losses: JaKobe Coles (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Ty Groce (Eastern Michigan), Pierce Thomas, D.J. Hughes, Jayden Taylor, Simas Lukosius
Lineup:
Outlook: Following the program’s worst KenPom finish (120th) since 2005, it might feel odd to project Butler this far up the Big East standings. The Bulldogs finished last in 2020-21 (non-DePaul division) while being one of only two BE squads to play all 20 scheduled conference tilts, but several reasons for optimism exist in Indianapolis. For one, the rest of the league has questions of its own. Villanova once again lords over all preseason projections, but every other team loses one or more key pieces, leaving the pecking order very much in question. That is, every team but Butler, where the Dogs are running it back in what should be a much healthier campaign.
Few teams can boast the kind of continuity Butler can – in fact, of power conference teams, only UCLA returns more than Butler’s 91.9% of its minutes (Purdue is closely behind at 91.2%), and only 12 programs in the country bring back more than the Bulldogs, per Bart Torvik. That includes four (!) super seniors exercising their right to an extra season, led by floor general Aaron Thompson. He missed 11 games last year with knee and shoulder ailments, and the Bulldogs’ 4-7 record without him (including an ugly home loss to Southern Illinois) speaks volumes about how important he was and is to this roster.
Now that he’s (presumably) healthy, though, the Bulldogs can appreciate the silver linings of Thompson’s absences. Rising sophomores Chuck Harris and Myles Tate were thrown into the deep end, and Harris in particular immediately proved his ability to swim. He was the team’s best player by season’s end, including a three-game explosion where he racked up 70 points combined (and Butler knocked off Villanova in one of those games), showing an ability to go get difficult buckets:
His confidence will be sky-high entering this year, and he should benefit greatly from having Thompson to feed him for open shots. Tate floundered more than Harris (mainly due to ice cold shooting), but he was a steady distributor who can now grow into the “point guard of the future” role while continuing to learn from Thompson.
Guard play is especially important in Coach LaVall Jordan’s system, which involves a ton of pick-and-roll. Per Synergy, 37.1% of the Bulldogs’ possessions included at least one PnR, the 13th-highest figure in the country. Unfortunately, the ball-handlers were outright terrible, collectively finishing in the 7th percentile nationally (*pukes on keyboard*). Thompson and fellow fifth year player Jair Bolden were the best of a sorry bunch, but the entire team – veterans and youngsters alike – needs to improve in this area, or the Bulldogs’ offense will continue to sink the team like concrete shoes.
It certainly didn’t help to lack shooting in such a severe way. The Bulldogs shot just 32.3% from deep as a team, 239th nationally (per KenPom), and opposing defenses comfortably constricted the paint against the shooting-starved Dogs. Moving Harris back off the ball full-time will help, but only he and Bolden really command any respect from defenses. Another super senior, Bryce Nze, offers a little spacing from the frontcourt, but he also almost had the confusing statistical anomaly of shooting better from 3 (44.2%) than the free throw line (47.1%). As such, defenses did not fear him. Hope for improvement lies with Eastern Michigan transfer Ty Groce, though he’s been very low volume in his career, and freshmen Pierce Thomas and Jayden Taylor.
Greater depth and experience should also boost the Bulldogs’ impotent transition attack. Per Hoop-Math, they ranked 325th in frequency of transition attempts and 314th in effective field goal percentage on those chances; that inability to get easy points put even more pressure on the stagnant half court attack, exacerbating those issues.
The offense deserves plenty of shame, but the Butler defense was far from elite, as well. Per usual for a Jordan defense, the Bulldogs were fundamentally sound (solid on the defensive glass, did not foul), but a lack of athleticism and length really hurt both the perimeter and interior defense. More minutes for Bo Hodges should help on the wing; the versatile ETSU transfer played just nine games (all January 30th or later). Groce, super senior Christian David, and Thomas add to that wing corps; last year’s roster was basically only smallish guards and ground-bound big men.
Speaking of those big men, Nze and Bryce Golden are an imposing physical pair, and Nze in particular cleans the glass at an impressive rate. Neither is a shot-blocker, though, which contributed to the Bulldogs ranking 308th in field goal percentage allowed at the rim (Hoop-Math). There’s little hope for this improving, as younger bigs Myles Wilmoth and John-Michael Mulloy are very similar archetypes. Freshman forward DJ Hughes, a key cog for high school powerhouse Lawrence North, likely earns some playing time immediately, but again – he’s more of an Nze-type than a shot-blocker. Expect Jordan to explore some smallball lineups with Groce and Hodges shifting down the lineup in hopes of giving foes different looks.
Bottom Line: “Running it back” is usually an approach better used by teams that were actually good the previous season, but the Bulldogs’ extenuating circumstances (read: injuries) offer a valid explanation for last year’s struggles. For Butler, hope lies in getting Thompson healthier, adding more versatility to the lineup via Hodges, Groce, and Thomas, and the evolution of Harris as the team’s go-to offensive option. Nze and Golden will be steady (if somewhat unspectacular) in their roles, and the Dogs’ should have plenty of depth with 15 scholarship players on the roster thanks to the super seniors. In the gulag that will be the middle of the Big East pack, is all of that enough to boost Butler into the top half? You could talk us into a “yes” or a “no” there, but the most likely outcome is probably a bubbly campaign throughout.
7. Providence
Key Returners: Nate Watson (extra year), A.J. Reeves, Jared Bynum, Noah Horchler (extra year), Alyn Breed
Key Losses: David Duke (pro), Greg Gantt (transfer), Jimmy Nichols (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Al Durham (Indiana), Justin Minaya (South Carolina), Rafael Castro, Legend Geeter
Lineup:
Outlook: Coming off a torrid finish to the 2019-20 season, Providence entered last year with clear NCAA Tournament hopes. Even without the services of a strong senior class, last year’s Friars looked poised to build on that momentum, lifting Coach Ed Cooley to what would have been his 7th tourney appearance in the last eight years. Instead, the team sputtered through Big East play, at one point losing seven of nine games against a schedule that mostly approximated the Friars’ own abilities. With the benefit of two “extra year” players in star center Nate Watson and athletic rebounder Noah Horchler, Cooley has some pieces to work with in an effort to bounce back, but it will not be an easy climb.
Cooley’s most important task will be reshaping the offense without the presence of David Duke, the Friars’ do-everything guard who entered the NBA Draft. The Friars’ attack shifted noticeably last year, leaning into more ball screens than normal while featuring such a talented guard:
After Jared Bynum went down with a groin strain, Duke was forced into lead ball-handler duties while also being the only guard capable of creating his own offense, and that burden seemed to wear him down. Per Hoop-Explorer, Duke had an offensive rating of 111.9 when sharing the court with Bynum; that number plummeted to 96.3 when Bynum was on the bench or hurt.
Without Duke, expect a shift to the more flex-heavy days of seasons past (watch this video from Jordan Sperber if you want an in-depth breakdown of the flex), emphasizing the team’s size and feeding Watson until he burps. The burly post man had his best year last year, dominating inside and on the offensive glass while shooting an impressive 60.2% from the field. He ranked in the 79th percentile in efficiency on post ups, up from the 41st last year, and he should be in for another huge year as he continues to bully opponents:
Cooley’s flex system really lacks spacing, though, as the team’s alignment is often far too compact in today’s era of basketball. Especially with Duke gone, this team lacks shooting, with AJ Reeves being the only high-volume threat. Horchler and Indiana transfer Al Durham can knock down shots, but they’re not necessarily looking for them – especially under Cooley, whose teams rarely take many triples. Likely role players Alyn Breed, Brycen Goodine, and South Carolina transfer Justin Minaya combined to go 26-for-107 (24.3%) last year, so don’t expect much added spacing from the bench. Oh, and Bynum went 5-for-42 (11.9%), including 2-for-28 before he got hurt. Woof.
The other key factor to mention with the Friars’ offense is how frequently the team ends up against the shot clock due to its, um, “patience” (read: the flex struggles to generate quick shots). That amplifies the importance of having a difference-maker late in possessions who can beat his man and score or draw extra defenders, a la Duke, Kyron Cartwright, Kris Dunn, etc. Can Bynum fill that role? Will Al Durham be asked to play outside of himself in that regard? That stands out as a major concern here – and that’s if Bynum is able to stay healthy all season.
Largely due to that tempo and incessant shooting concerns, the offense has shown a fairly consistent ceiling under Cooley (no better than 75th in KenPom’s AdjOE over the last six years), which means the improvement likely needs to come from a defense that dropped off noticeably last year. One of these AdjDE rankings does not belong: 42, 28, 40, 36, 41, 27, 74. That #74 was the larger disappointment last year, and one area in particular stood out – forcing turnovers:
There’s some hope that more minutes for Bynum and the additions of Durham and Minaya can help that, but the two newcomers are more known for their stout positional defending than their disruptiveness.
The struggles of Watson on the glass are also a design flaw in the scheme. For his entire career, Watson has rebounded like a guard on the defensive end, and Horchler’s efforts only do so much to cancel that out. Here’s a fun list of players with a higher D-Reb rate than Watson last year: 6’1 Andre Curbelo (Illinois), 6’1 Marreon Jackson (Toledo), 5’11 Noah Fernandes (UMass), 6’1 Mason Faulkner (Western Carolina), 6’1 Deivon Smith (Mississippi St.)…I think you get the idea.
Still, the defense should remain solid, if for no other reason than for Cooley’s preference of big, physical guards and wings. Minaya and Durham are perfect fits, with both coming from terrific defensive systems in power conferences, and Breed has the length to be switchable, as well. The frontcourt also has depth with Ed Croswell and freshmen Rafael Castro and Legend Geeter; like Watson, Croswell rebounds like a madman on the offensive end.
Bottom Line: We have reached a point where we largely know what we’re going to get from Providence: top 50 defense, top 100 offense, both of which add up to a bubble team. Last year’s defensive regression is certainly a cause for concern, though, and the offensive question marks without Duke will need answering. Can Bynum rise into more of a lead ball-handling role? Will Reeves find more consistency from the perimeter? Will Durham find another gear to his game after a change of scenery?
All of this is really a long path to the same destination, though. The Friars look poised to be a middle-of-the-pack Big East team again, with the most optimistic outcomes involving another trip to the Big Dance and a likely early exit (but hey, you never know once you get there!). It’s still better than the state the program was in pre-Cooley, but it does start to feel like running on the Treadmill of Mediocrity after a while.
8. Creighton
Key Returners: Shereef Mitchell, Ryan Kalkbrenner, Alex O’Connell
Key Losses: Marcus Zegarowski (pro), Mitchell Ballock, Denzel Mahoney, Christian Bishop (transfer), Damien Jefferson
Key Newcomers: Rati Andronikashvili (injury redshirt), Modestas Kancleris (injury redshirt), Ryan Hawkins (D-II), Arthur Kaluma, Trey Alexander, Mason Miller, Ryan Nembhard, John Christofilis
Lineup:
Outlook: The Milwaukee Bucks in the NBA Finals, the Creighton Bluejays in the Sweet 16 – two things that had not happened since 1974. In his tenth NCAA Tournament appearance (counting 2020, plus three at Northern Iowa), Greg McDermott finally made the event’s second weekend, and running into the Gonzaga buzzsaw should not discount what an outstanding achievement that was. McDermott has now won 20+ games in 10 of his 11 seasons at the helm in Omaha, though making that 11 of 12 will take every bit of his coaching acumen.
It’s hard to find a bigger talent drain in all of college basketball. Of 155 possible starts (31 games), Creighton returns a paltry two (both by point guard Shereef Mitchell when Marcus Zegarowski was banged up), and among power conference teams, only Minnesota loses more “possession minutes” per Bart Torvik. With so much turnover, McDermott needed to bring in serious talent if he had any dreams of reloading, which makes this decorated freshman class absolutely pivotal in the trajectory of the program.
The five-man group that McDermott secured sits at 5th overall in 247 Sports national rankings (tops in the Big East), and if you add in redshirt freshman Rati Andronikashvili, who missed all of last season after tearing an ACL, the program’s best five recruits ever will debut this year:
All will likely be asked to play key roles immediately, and the Bluejays’ fate will be closely tied to how ready they are to contribute.
It comes as no surprise that the youngsters boast impressive and varied offensive skillsets, making them terrific fits in McDermott’s spread attack. Andronikashvili and Ryan Nembhard give McDermott multiple talented distributors to pair with Mitchell, and Andronikashvili’s size makes it easy to play two of them at the same time. Trey Alexander and Mason Miller are touted as superb shooters at their respective positions, and considering the perimeter production lost in the offseason exodus, that will prove vital. Division II transfer Ryan Hawkins bolsters that arsenal, as well, after burying 87 triples at 46.0% last year for national champion Northwest Missouri State. He racked up 31 points and 18 rebounds in the blowout title game win over West Texas A&M, evidencing his immense skill level.
They’ll be implemented into a McDermott attack that uses a ton of off-ball movement and dribble handoff action to get defenses on their heels. When the Creighton offense is humming, it bends opponents with sharp passing and direct drives, with a variety of potent shooters dotting the perimeter:
Mitchell and Alex O’Connell are the only true veterans of the system, but they have the talent to take on larger roles this year after deferring to the more touted upperclassmen in 2020-21. Hawkins and Miller give McDermott the Ethan Wragge-esque stretch four options that his system thrives with, and having multiple guys who can create for others simply adds to opponents’ dilemmas. It’s almost impossible for the system to remain as crisp and consistent as it was with such an experienced group, though, so an AdjOE finish closer to 2019 (47th) than last year (25th) seems likely.
The one freshman that does not fit the offensive skill archetype is Arthur Kaluma, the only top 50 recruit of the bunch. Kaluma is a defensive terror, and his terrific versatility on that end will provide some hope for maintaining Creighton’s recent success on defense. Last year was actually McDermott’s best-ever AdjDE ranking, per KenPom, and the Bluejays switchability from 1 to 4 played a huge part in that. Whether all of the newcomers will be able to execute that approach is up for debate (probably being generous there), but there’s no doubt that Kaluma will be an impact defender from day one.
The other key defensive pillar is Ryan Kalkbrenner, an immense center who shut down the rim when on the floor. Per Hoop-Explorer, opponents hit just 53.8% at the rim when he played; that number shot up to 58.4% without him. He’s still becoming a more fluid mover in his massive body, but playing for the USA FIBA U19 team this offseason should be a boon to his development. Having a big man with a 9.7% block rate (would have been a top 25 rate nationally had he played more minutes) can go a long way towards erasing the mistakes of the young perimeter defenders. Depth will come from Keyshawn Feazell, a McNeese State transfer who began his career at Mississippi State and averaged a double-double last year, and Modestas Kancleris, the Bluejays’ second foreign freshman who tore an ACL last year.
McDermott is a devout half court man-to-man acolyte, consistently playing it on 98%+ of defensive possessions. That can sometimes be an issue when the roster tilts too far towards “offensive skill” and away from “athletic tools,” and this year certainly flirts with that possibility. Damien Jefferson and Denzel Mahoney were outstanding 1v1 defenders, and if only Kaluma fits that bill this year, regression is inevitable.
Bottom Line: Considering the lack of continuity here and the huge amount of youth, the variance in outcomes for Creighton is probably the widest in the entire Big East. McDermott’s prowess as an offensive guru and the overall talent level hint towards the positive end of that range, and Kalkbrenner should blossom into one of the best defensive bigs in the league, but there’s definitely some inherent risk that the Baby Bluejays struggle to close out games in a hyper-balanced conference. If you’re all in on Creighton’s freshmen, then I could definitely understand being higher on this squad, but I’m going with a more conservative approach.
9. Marquette
Key Returners: Justin Lewis, Greg Elliott
Key Losses: Dawson Garcia (transfer), D.J. Carton (pro), Theo John (transfer), Koby McEwen (transfer), Jamal Cain (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Darryl Morsell (Maryland), Stevie Mitchell, Tyler Kolek (George Mason), Kur Kuath (Oklahoma), Emarion Ellis, Olivier-Maxence Prosper (Clemson), Kameron Jones, Keeyan Itejere
Lineup:
Outlook: On March 15, 2008, the Clemson Tigers upset the Duke Blue Devils en route to the Tigers’ first berth in the ACC Tournament final since 1962. Names like Trevor Booker and Greg Paulus may jump out most from that box score, but Marquette fans might be intrigued by a couple assistants in that particular game:
Fast forward more than 13 years, and those are the key names in a transfer of power in Milwaukee. Despite some massive recruiting wins over his seven-year tenure, Steve Wojciechowski continued the tradition of Mike Krzyzewski’s coaching tree underachieving, making just three NCAA Tournaments (including the COVID-axed 2020 version) and never winning a game in the event. His downfall was surely an inability to produce consistent results on the defensive side of the ball (only one top-65 finish in KenPom’s AdjDE), opening the door for a change to be made.
Enter Shaka Smart, a far more defensive-minded boss who arguably was on his way out in Austin before leaping from the spiraling plane with his Marquette parachute. Fun fact for Golden Eagle fans: Smart has had 10 straight defenses (six at Texas, four at VCU) rank higher in AdjDE than Wojo’s best ranking at Marquette (45th in 2019). The Golden Eagles might actually get some stops!
A much less fun fact for Marquette fans: Shaka also won zero NCAA Tournament games at his last stop, despite having a wealth of resources and 18 (eighteen!!) top 100 recruits in six seasons, including four 5-stars. This Marquette team will not be quite as loaded as those Texas rosters, but it sets up to be dominant defensively, fulfilling that aspect of Smart’s coaching identity.
The two lonely veterans of the squad, Greg Elliott and Justin Lewis, both offer intriguing physical tools, with Elliott’s tremendous length and Lewis’ strength and versatility providing a foundation around which Smart can build. The most significant piece, though, is Maryland transfer Darryl Morsell, last year’s Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year. He’s a lockdown wing who can guard multiple positions, and his impact for the Terps showed up in on-off numbers:
On a team full of similarly-sized switchable wings, Morsell actually moving the needle is a rather impressive feat.
Two other transfers add to the defensive upside. Kur Kuath comes to Milwaukee after being a key rotation big for Lon Kruger at Oklahoma, and he actually led the entire Big 12 in block rate (ranked 28th nationally). The Sudanese center projects well as a Jericho Sims-esque rim protector in Smart’s man-to-man scheme. Like Smart himself, Canadian forward Olivier-Maxence Prosper spent previous time at Clemson, and though he did not see the floor much as a freshman, he made impressive contributions at the FIBA u19 tournament in Latvia this summer.
Perhaps the most “pressing” question (ha ha ha) about Smart’s tenure is whether he’ll dust off his old “Havoc” defense from his VCU days. From 2012-14, his Rams led the country in defensive turnover rate, trapping all over the floor and generating easy baskets going the other way. That approach requires athletic depth, something the freshman class provides, but it is much harder to execute in power conference basketball due to the increased talent of opposing guards. Still, mixing in pressure looks seems like a no-brainer considering the personnel Smart has on the roster.
Defense will need to be the Golden Eagles’ calling card, because the offensive options appear severely limited following the early departures of D.J. Carton (pro) and Dawson Garcia (transferred to North Carolina). Schematically, Smart’s offense is quite similar to Wojo’s: spread the floor for pick-and-rolls, give a ton of freedom to his guards, and generally avoid transition (though he did speed things up in 2021). Marquette has a worrisome dearth of ball-handlers/perimeter creators for such a system, though.
The two most likely lead guard candidates are freshman Stevie Mitchell and George Mason transfer Tyler Kolek, neither of whom look like major Big East threats in their first season in the league. Mitchell is more of a pass-first pure point, showing an impressive mid-range game and decent vision while lacking crazy athleticism; he likely will have the typical turnover and consistency issues that come with freshman point guards. Kolek has a season under his belt, but he frequently played off the ball at GMU and is more of a “ball mover” than true creator. He can be a lethal perimeter threat if Smart can find him shots, though, and Smart raves about his work ethic and basketball mind.
The other option is to go a bit more “jumbo” and give the reins to Morsell and/or freshman combo guards Emarion Ellis and Kam Jones. Morsell actually led Maryland in assist rate last year, and he showed solid potential in pick-and-rolls:
He may have picked Marquette to show off more of that ability. Ellis and Jones are young and raw, but they offer more athleticism than the Mitchell/Kolek combo, and that dynamism may be needed as the Golden Eagle offense attempts to manufacture shots.
Of course, any pick-and-roll offense also needs spacing and a legitimate roll threat to draw defensive attention. Elliott was one of the country’s best spot up shooters last year, and if he and Kolek are occupying the wings, opponents will be in a bind about where to send help from. Morsell’s inability to hit shots (26.8% for his career from beyond the arc) is another reason to want the ball in his hands. As for roll guys, Kuath is a bouncy big who can dunk anything, and young bigs Oso Ighodaro and Keeyan Itejere have drawn praise from Smart for their mobility, with Ighodaro even drawing a comparison to Jaxson Hayes’ physical tools.
The wild card is Lewis, a tantalizing player who nevertheless struggled mightily on the offensive end last year, posting disappointing shooting splits of 41.7%/21.9%/57.7%. Given the likely increase in his usage and minutes, Marquette is heavily leveraged on his improvement, and he does appear perfectly set up for the fabled sophomore leap. Finding the right scoring opportunities/shots for him will be a crucial challenge for Smart and his staff.
Bottom Line: Both Marquette and Shaka Smart were in need of a fresh start, and though Smart had his struggles at Texas, this feels like a much better fit for the Wisconsin native. The expectations are still considerable, but Marquette aligns more with his “scrappy underdog” vibe, and his “get lost in the fight” mantra should appeal to the fanbase. Despite Smart carrying many of the same flaws at Texas that got Wojo fired in Marquette (primarily: not winning nearly enough with a bevy of talent and resources), optimism around this new fit is reasonable, though his first team may be too unbalanced towards the defensive end of the floor.
10. Georgetown
Key Returners: Dante Harris, Donald Carey, Tim Ighoefe
Key Losses: Qudus Wahab (transfer), Chudier Bile, Jahvon Blair, Jamorko Pickett, Jalen Harris
Key Newcomers: Aminu Mohammed, Kaiden Rice (The Citadel), Ryan Mutombo, Jordan Riley, Tyler Beard, Jalin Billingsley
Lineup:
Note: As of publishing date of this preview, Georgetown has not posted its official roster for the 2021-22 season. As such, we used the Verbal Commits page, which still lists Jalen Harris as a part of the team. We have since removed him from the roster.
Note 2: Tre King is not enrolled in classes and will not be on the team. That pushes Georgetown closer to the DePaul tier, though we will still hold them above that standard. Again, Georgetown, this all could have been avoided if you just updated your flipping roster in a timely manner…
Outlook: If last season had ended at the same point that the 2019-20 campaign did (before the Thursday quarterfinal round of the Big East Tournament), Patrick Ewing’s year and job security would have looked quite a bit different. The Hoyas sat at a disappointing 10-12 overall, and though they rallied somewhat after a three-week COVID shutdown (from 1-5 in the Big East to 7-9), it was still another subpar performance for the storied program.
Fortunately for the Hoya Destroya, the postseason happened, and Georgetown impressively rampaged to a Big East Tournament victory, absolutely shredding Creighton in the title game for the Hoyas’ first tournament championship since 2007 (only the second since 1989?!). They got destroyed in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, but seeing Georgetown back in the bracket brought undeniable good vibes back to Washington, D.C.
The question remains, though: was that run an Ice, Ice Baby-esque one-hit wonder? Or does this team have the staying power to build off that momentum?
The largest news of the offseason hints towards the former. Qudus Wahab, a mobile center who anchored the paint on both ends of the floor, transferred to nearby Maryland, robbing Ewing of a highly successful big man development project. Tim Ighoefe should take over that role, and at the very least, his size and shot-swatting should maintain the Hoyas’ impressive interior defense. The team’s focus clearly shifted when Big Tim spelled Wahab:
The defense was certainly the Hoyas’ strength, but leaning into that identity this year could be an issue after the rest of the roster lost a lot of length and experience. As a result, Ewing may opt to give Ryan Mutombo heavy minutes at center, and the son of Dikembe has an impressive offensive game for a freshman big. He isn’t quite the shot-blocker that pops was, though, and Ewing will need to get a young squad up to speed quickly on the defensive end.
That young roster will be led by sophomore floor general Dante Harris, who seized the starting point guard job and never relinquished it. Though he had the typical efficiency struggles of a freshman lead guard (shot 34.9% from the floor, had turnover issues at times), he showed more than enough flashes to feel comfortable with him running the team for the next three years. He was particularly masterful against Villanova in the Big East quarters, going for 18 points, three rebounds, and five assists (zero turnovers) while hitting two pressure-packed free throws with 4.7 seconds left to secure the one-point victory.
In Georgetown’s four-out offense, Harris has plenty of space to in which to operate, and he should continue to grow as a pick-and-roll facilitator. There’s no more Jahvon Blair as a security blanket, but freshman phenom Aminu Mohammed will certainly keep defenses honest. Mohammed, the school’s first 5-star recruit since 2014, is a powerful guard who excels at attacking off the bounce, using his strength to get into gaps and finish through contact.
Shockingly for a Ewing-coached team, Georgetown ranked 332nd in the country last year in rim attempts, per Hoop Math, completely lacking the dynamic slashers needed to open up defenses and avoid settling for mid-range shots. Mohammed can change that in a heartbeat, and fellow freshmen Jordan Riley and Tyler Beard will also be asked to boost that part of the attack. Riley, like Mohammed, is another well-built driver with impressive vertical pop, while Beard will allow Ewing to trot out some dual point guard lineups at times. He comes to the Hoyas after an illustrious high school career at Chicago’s Whitney Young and a prep year at Virginia basketball factory Hargrave Military Academy; that may help him make an immediate impact.
Last year’s roster had strong shooting in the frontcourt from Jamorko Pickett and Chudier Bile, a necessity to open up driving lanes for both Mohammed and Harris. Following the success of Bile (a transfer from Northwestern State), Ewing once again sought shooting in the mid-major ranks, this time securing two such players. Tre King, who also prepped at Hargrave, comes over from Eastern Kentucky as a versatile big man option capable of playing either the 4 or the 5, while Kaiden Rice is more of a pure shooting wing who has already taken 794 (!!) threes in his career. The two newcomers have vastly disparate defensive abilities (King = quite solid, Rice = nonexistent), so Ewing will need to smartly construct lineups to avoid Rice getting exposed.
Note: No Tre King is a major issue for frontcourt depth and versatility (especially the latter). Jalin Billingsley becomes a potential key piece as a 3-star recruit capable of playing
The return of Donald Carey should aid that dilemma, as the 6’5 wing offers a solid combination of shooting (45% from deep last year) and rangy defense. He accepted his role as a low-usage complementary player last year, and if he remains comfortable in that spot, he’ll be a value add for the Hoyas. His turnover issues really creep up when he tries to make too much happen, though.
Bottom Line: Ewing definitely earned some goodwill for the Big East title run, but he still has never finished above .500 in Big East play, and his teams frequently have issues with consistency. Haslametrics has a stat measuring just that, and Georgetown unsurprisingly ranked 302nd last year, demonstrating the Hoyas’ erratic nature from game to game. Considering how much turnover this roster will have, it’s hard to expect that issue to alleviate in 2021-22, and unless Mohammed is an immediate all-conference weapon, Georgetown will have an uphill climb to get back to the Big Dance while battling the balanced Big East. The roster has a lot of strong dudes, so the Hoyas could excel by embracing a physical identity, but it may take time to come together.
Tier 4
11. DePaul
Key Returners: Javon Freeman-Liberty, Nick Ongenda, David Jones
Key Losses: Romeo Weems (pro), Charlie Moore (transfer), Ray Salnave (transfer), Pauly Paulicap (transfer), Kobe Elvis (transfer), Darious Hall (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Ahamad Bynum, Jalen Terry (Oregon), Brandon Johnson (Minnesota), Tyon Grant-Foster (Kansas), Philmon Gebrewhit (JUCO), Yor Anei (SMU), Javan Johnson (Iowa St.)
Lineup:
Outlook: COVID torpedoed many a season in 2020-21, and DePaul rarely needs help finishing last in the league, but the pandemic did the Blue Demons no favors in preventing their season from starting until December 23rd, nearly a full month after everyone else. Whether or not that delay is to blame for DePaul’s hideous offense is irrelevant, though, as Dave Leitao’s second tenure in the Second City ended this offseason (don’t worry – the third time will surely be the charm!). In steps Tony Stubblefield, a veteran of Dana Altman’s staff at Oregon and the next hope of resurrecting the DePaul hoops program back to the heights it saw under Ray Meyer (two Final Fours!) and his son Joey (though most of Joey’s successes were later vacated).
Stubblefield takes over a program mostly gutted by departures, though that may not be such a bad thing for a team that went 5-28 in the Big East over the last two seasons. His own efforts to take advantage of the transfer portal are somewhat impressive – three power conference imports, including former #1 JUCO transfer Tyon Grant-Foster and former top-100 recruit Jalen Terry – but it seems like only a meager foundation for a program in need of a total gut rehab.
As mentioned, the offensive end was in complete disarray last year, as DePaul comfortably had the worst offense in power conference basketball. The Demons were starved for efficient scorers, finishing 307th nationally in effective field goal percentage, and the patched-together backcourt of transfers and freshmen contributed heavily towards the team finishing with significantly more turnovers (300) than assists (217) on the season.
If his time at Oregon is any indicator, Stubblefield will likely overhaul the offense, moving away from the ball screen-heavy attack under Leitao, implementing a spread approach that’s more democratic, often running through a bigger playmaker – think Dillon Brooks or, more recently, Eugene Omoruyi:
New assistant Steve Thomas also just spent two years learning the Princeton offense under Chris Mooney at Richmond, so having bigger playmakers makes sense.
Whether anyone is capable of stepping into into that roll is a question, though. Grant-Foster tallied a paltry four assists in 179 minutes at Kansas, so despite having the scoring arsenal for such a spot, his vision leaves a lot to be desired. Same goes for Brandon Johnson, who profiles as more of a floor-spacing big, and former D-II transfer Courvoisier McCauley, who “topped” Grant-Foster by registering ZERO assists in 201 minutes for the Blue Demons. The most intriguing option is probably sophomore David Jones, an early enrollee last year who has a lot more game than he showed in his abbreviated season.
When the personnel made sense, Altman would still tweak what he did and run through a primary ball-handling guard (Payton Pritchard), so perhaps Stubblefield hands the keys to Terry, who followed him from Eugene. He should form a small but dynamic backcourt with freshman Ahamad Bynum, a Leitao recruit from powerhouse Simeon High who chose to remain committed to Stubblefield. He has terrific lift on his jumper, and he should immediately be the Demons’ best perimeter threat. The only true perimeter mainstay back from last year is Javon Freeman-Liberty, a lanky slasher who has now shot sub-30% from beyond the arc in all three of his college seasons. Freeman-Liberty is a talented player and a dangerous slasher, and he should welcome Bynum’s dangerous shooting to draw defensive attention.
If DePaul is able to climb out of the Big East basement, it will be on the strength of the defense. DePaul’s defense was basically equivalent to Oklahoma, UCLA, and Michigan St. last year (aka at-large caliber), bothering opponents with a slew of size. Jones and Freeman-Liberty both have plenty of length for their positions, Grant-Foster and Johnson add to that, and the Blue Demons caught a break when Nick Ongenda opted to remove his name from the transfer portal.
The go-go-Gadget-armed center still has plenty of rawness to his game, but he’s a devastating shot-blocker around the paint:
He should serve as the anchor to Stubblefield’s defense, something akin to the rim protectors Oregon had during his tenure there: Chris Boucher, Jordan Bell, Kenny Wooten. SMU transfer Yor Anei adds a similar element, giving Stubblefield a two-headed shot-swatting monster (though the players’ duplicative games should prevent them from playing together).
Like his mentor, expect Stubblefield to change defenses, mixing in some matchup zone looks with the primary man-to-man setup. Though the roster will be young, DePaul certainly has the physical pieces to assemble a solid unit on this end, and Stubblefield’s background suggests he will be able to capitalize on that potential.
Bottom Line: It’s only year one for Stubblefield, so expectations should be low. Leitao did not leave a full cupboard in Chicago, and though the new boss quickly added some solid talent, it may not be enough to avoid landing in the DePaul Zone of the standings (aka last) for the first time since 2016. The success (or failure) of Stubblefield’s rebuild will hinge on his ability to bring in players, something he excelled at time and again at Oregon (though he won’t have the full strength of Nike backing him in the same way). Assistant Bino Ranson should help as well after cleaning up in the DMV area under Mark Turgeon, and both guys will now set their sights on the fertile recruiting ground of the Chicagoland area.