-Jim Root
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: John Knight, R Sr., Southern Utah
Coach of the Year: Randy Rahe, Weber St.
Co-Newcomers of the Year: Jalen Cone, Jr., Northern Arizona / Koby McEwen, R Sr., Weber St.
Freshman of the Year: Marcus Greene, Sacramento St.
Tier 1
1. Weber St.
Key Returners: Seikou Sisoho Jawara, Zahir Porter, Cody Carlson (extra year), Dontay Bassett (extra year), Michael Kozak (extra year), Dillon Jones
Key Losses: Isiah Brown
Key Newcomers: Koby McEwen (Marquette), Jamison Overton (Utah Valley), Dyson Koehler (Cal Poly)
Lineup:
Outlook: Well, that lull certainly did not last long.
Randy Rahe’s Wildcats experienced severe adversity during the 2019 and 2020 seasons, limping to a 30-35 overall record (19-21 in the league) while facing a litany of injuries and personnel issues. That was a surprising departure from Rahe’s winning Weber ways, where he has amassed 185 league wins in 15 years, including five titles. He’s failed to claim 10 Big Sky victories just twice in those 15 seasons, but one such occasion was in 2020.
Rahe chose to embrace the transfer portal wholeheartedly last offseason, and in players like Isiah Brown, Dontay Bassett, and Seikou Sisoho Jawara, that bet paid out quickly and handsomely. The Wildcats once again captured double-digit Big Sky victories (12, to be exact), and Rahe’s newfound transfer tactics have again laid the groundwork for a sustained run in the league’s upper echelon.
Weber State returns three double-figure scorers (plus three more who averaged 7+), but you can never have too much firepower. As such, Rahe once again dipped into the portal pond to bring in Koby McEwen and Jamison Overton, two more prolific bucket-getters with ties to the state. McEwen began his career at Utah State before a Big East cameo at Marquette, while Overton poured in 16 a game for a Utah Valley team that went 9-4 in the WAC.
It’s hard to overstate just how dominant McEwen could be for the Wildcats. He was excellent for USU as a freshman and sophomore, and though his efficiency lagged for the Golden Eagles, the talent was undeniable and he put up a decent stat line. Think about it this way: SUU’s Tevian Jones won Player of the Year in his first Big Sky season after averaging 0.9 PPG and barely seeing the court for Illinois; McEwen has averaged 15.6 PPG in the Mountain West and 10.2 PPG in the Big East. The only thing that may hold him back is opportunity – Weber State might have too many weapons to let one guy go Super Saiyan (though Isiah Brown’s 17.7 PPG should be well within reach for McEwen at Weber’s tempo).
Between McEwen, Overton, Jawara, and Zahir Porter, the Wildcats have a quadrumvirate of lethal perimeter threats capable of taking over games as both scorers and creators. Rahe is more than willing to tailor his offensive system to the roster at hand, and allowing those guys to run in transition and play in space via pick-and-roll is a no-brainer. Jawara was brilliant in such settings, particularly as a scorer, using his shooting (and the threat of it) to get to his left hand and rack up points in the 81st percentile nationally, per Synergy:
McEwen and Overton are both viable options in ball screens as well. Overton – another southpaw – actually ranked in the 92nd percentile nationally as a PnR scorer.
Three of the four can knock down perimeter shots (only Overton can be left alone outside), meaning defenses are going to be faced with terrifying decisions on how to approach helping and rotating. Even without McEwen and Overton, last year’s team was already a nationally elite shooting bunch from everywhere on the court — and even the charity stripe:
Plus, thanks to the bonus COVID season, Rahe also has a deep and versatile frontcourt capable of running with those guards/wings, playing in tandem as roll men in ball screens, or even spacing the floor. Cody Carlson and Michael Kozak combined to knock down 38 triples in 23 games at 41.8%, and both also have the size to maintain a stout defense, especially on the glass. Bassett and Dillon Jones both bring dangerous versatility at the forward spot, with Bassett’s Florida Gator pedigree making him one of the most athletic forwards in the conference. Jones is the only non-super senior of this group, but the rising sophomore has already shown legitimate all-league potential on the glass and as a multi-positional defender.
With that fearsome foursome, Rahe also gave opponents a heavy dose of post ups last season, action made all the more dangerous with the stockpile of snipers dotting the perimeter. Kozak was especially effective, using patient footwork to get his left shoulder and finishing with soft touch. Cal Poly import Dyson Koehler may struggle to see minutes in his first season with the Wildcats, but he should pair well with Jones in the future and adds another feisty rebounder to the mix in case of injuries or foul trouble.
Defensively, last year was not Rahe’s best unit. Though he does have that stable of skilled big men, none are emphatic rim protectors inside. He compensated for that by squeezing his man-to-man tight and forcing foes to lob jumpers over the top, and with Weber’s extensive length in the backcourt, those shots were often exceedingly difficult to convert. Rahe has long been a purveyor of the “take away the three-point arc” defensive tenet, and last year’s team really excelled at enticing opponents into taking “tough twos.”
Bottom Line: Rahe is the baron of Big Sky coaches, having broken the record for most conference wins back in 2018, and considering the veterans he has returning, the Wildcats were already in contention for the Big Sky title. Adding McEwen and Overton, though, is like a multi-millionaire winning another seven figures on a scratch-off: it just feels gratuitous. Much like those winnings could buy another fleet of cars or a luxury yacht, Weber’s newest weapons could win Rahe a couple more Big Sky crowns and a 4th NCAA Tournament appearance. The Wildcats have the talent, depth, scoring punch, and scheme to get it done, but those pesky Thunderbirds from Southern Utah are going to be there every step of the way.
2. Southern Utah
Key Returners: Tevian Jones, John Knight (extra year), Dre Marin (extra year), Maizen Fausett, Harrison Butler, Aanen Moody
Key Losses: Ivan Madunic
Key Newcomers: Malik Muhammad (Central Michigan), Amound Anderson (Cal St. Northridge)
Lineup:
Outlook: Back when I was a young lad, my family would vacation at this lovely establishment in Treasure Island, Florida:
Yes, that’s a long, long ways from Cedar City, Utah, and the Southern Utah Thunderbirds, but watching last year’s T-Birds was an equally enjoyable experience to one of those beachside holidays. And the party is far from over, basketball-wise: SUU returns almost everyone from one of the best teams in school history, a 2020-21 squad that went 20-4 overall and won the Big Sky regular season outright. Yes, the dream run was cut short by a heartbreaking overtime loss in the conference tournament semifinals, but that does not tarnish the optimism for the upcoming campaign.
SUU’s accomplishments were fuled by a scorching offense featuring several potent individual threats in Coach Todd Simon’s downhill attack, most notably the deadly backcourt trident of John Knight III, Dre Marin, and Tevian Jones (the reigning Big Sky Player of the Year). SUU will get out and run in transition whenever it can, and all three backcourt scorers can capably lead the charge.
Knight is the true point guard and linchpin, but Marin is a worthy secondary initiator, and Jones has tremendous ball skills for a wing of his size. Per Hoop-Math, 29.8% of Southern Utah’s initial field goal attempts came in transition, the 16th-highest rate nationally, and having multiple options to spark the tempo is a huge reason for that.
That transition onslaught is also fueled by outstanding glass-cleaning; per KenPom, the Thunderbirds ranked 32nd nationally in defensive rebound rate. The frontcourt pairing of Maizen Fausett and Harrison Butler is a big part of that, but all three starting guards averaged more than four boards per game as well, allowing many T-Bird fast breaks to be the “grab-and-go” variety:
Though not all possessions can end in the open floor, the T-Birds’ half court offense is set up to take advantage of the roster in a similar way. Knight, Marin, and Jones are often weaved through screens en route to dribble handoffs, with the rest of the squad spreading the court to open driving lanes. Combined with having legitimate advantage creators like those three with the ball in their hands, that action puts a ton of stress on defenses. To keep Knight and Jones out of the paint, you have to help off Marin or Fausett, and both players are lethal finishers from the perimeter (Marin)/at the rim (Fausett).
Simon leaned hard on the starting lineup, de-emphasizing the importance of a deep rotation; per KenPom, SUU ranked 316th in bench minutes. Still, Aanen Moody is back as a sniper who will space the court, Marquis Moore is a Butler-esque jack-of-all-trades, and CSUN transfer Amound Anderson should be the understudy to Knight/Marin in the backcourt.
That Fausett/Butler duo was small up front, though, standing just 6’6 and 6’5 respectively. Ivan Madunic, the roster’s only true center, is the one rotation piece not returning. Simon scooped up Malik Muhammad from Central Michigan in the transfer portal, giving the T-Birds a 6’9 big man capable of gobbling up boards and keeping up with the go-go-guards in the open court. Muhammad’s presence will also be vital for patching up SUU’s interior defense, an area that could have been a glaring concern without Madunic.
Fausett warrants special mention as a “Know Your Role” All-Star, my colleague Matt’s team of big men who perfectly execute what’s asked of them. Fausett never turns it over, he makes free throws, he manufactures extra possessions with his effort, and he even stepped out and knocked down a three per game at a respectable clip. It’s hard to imagine a more perfect complementary fit with the team’s three perimeter stars.
Bottom Line: Last year was full of winning and aesthetically-pleasing basketball, and it should be more of the same in 2021-22 thanks to Knight and Marin returning via the extra COVID year. Jones is also a total matchup nightmare in this league, and with a cavalcade of capable role players around them, Southern Utah is set up for a run at the program’s first NCAA bid since 2001. The Thunderbirds will need to tighten the screws defensively, and Weber State is a worthy Apollo Creed to SUU’s Rocky Balboa (and other title belt contenders lurk), but the pieces are here for a special season in Cedar City – even one worthy of a celebratory trip to Treasure Island once it’s over.
Tier 2
3. Montana
Key Returners: Robby Beasley, Kyle Owens, Brandon Whitney, Josh Vazquez, Josh Bannan, Cameron Parker, Derrick Carter-Hollinger, Mack Anderson
Key Losses: Michael Steadman (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Scott Blakney (Idaho), Lonnell Martin (JUCO), Johnny Braggs, John Solomon
Lineup:
Outlook: Please be careful if you find yourself in the proximity of someone from the Montana basketball program. The team had a terrifying case of the second half yips last year, a rare but devastating condition that can undermine even the most impressive first half performance. Those yips cost the Grizzlies an inordinate number of wins (and covers, said the grumpy gambler):
1. @ Southern Utah, game 1 – Up 50-43 with 8:00 left, lost 64-63 (spread: -2)
2. @ Southern Utah, game 2 – Up 67-59 with 3:30 left, lost 75-74 (spread: -2)
3. Northern Colorado, game 1 – Up 57-52 with 2:30 left, lost 64-62 (spread: -6)
4. Northern Colorado, game 2 – Up 53-46 with 2:30 left, hung on to win 56-54 (spread: -5)
5. Northern Arizona, game 1 – Up 58-31 with 13:00 left, won 67-56 (spread: -12)
6. Northern Arizona, game 2 – Up 58-50 with 5:30 left, lost 62-58 (spread: -13)
7. Sacramento St., game 2 – Up 68-65 with 0:40 left, lost 89-83 in 2OT (spread: -2.5)
8. Idaho St., game 2 – Up 55-44 with 4:00 left, won 59-58 (spread: -1.5)
9. Idaho, Big Sky Tourney – Up 60-45 with 7:00 left, won 69-64 (spread: -13.5)
That’s a brutally extensive list, but perhaps some of it can be explained away by the ridiculous youth present on the squad. Montana ranked 340th in KenPom’s experience metric, with three freshmen and three sophomores among the rotation’s top eight. The ability to build those leads matters, though, and as the young players gain experience, they should develop the killer instinct to maintain them. With a proven Big Sky coaching stalwart in Travis DeCuire at the helm, it’s easy to expect significant improvement from the Griz.
Shot selection is often an issue with younger squads, and Montana fit that description last year. The Griz are loaded with outstanding shooters – Robby Beasley, Josh Vazquez, Cameron Parker, and Kyle Owens all hit 37.8% or better from deep – but they simply did not take enough. Per Hoop-Math, Montana ranked 334th nationally in 3PA rate; instead, the Griz took the 7th-most 2P jumpers. They still shot decently on those mid-rangers (40%, 74th nationally), but shifting more of those attempts to beyond the arc would quickly improve the attack. Unfortunately, DeCuire’s teams are often 3P averse, so it will take a slight philosophical shift, as well.
Improvement in the paint would also be beneficial, especially after Michael Steadman pulled a Dropkick Murphys and shipped up to Boston (ok, not Boston, but he did transfer to UMass). The Griz got a look at life without the agile big man after he left the team on February 15th, and that prompted DeCuire to go to a bigger starting lineup with all three of Owens, Mack Anderson, and Josh Bannan on the floor together. Though thin, Anderson is a voracious offensive rebounder while Bannan dominates the defensive glass, and Anderson’s work ethic and shot-blocking proved to be an upgrade from Steadman.
Still, neither was a viable weapon within the offense, prompting DeCuire to bring in Scott Blakney from Big Sky rival Idaho. Blakney was the lone bright spot for a horrendous Vandals team, and if Anderson and Bannan don’t develop, Blakney adds a legitimate post up threat to a system that often likes to play inside-out (he ranked in the 86th percentile nationally, per Synergy). Reports are that Bannan has had a terrific offseason and gained strength, which should allow Blakney to be a situational weapon.
Added production could also come from Derrick Carter-Hollinger, the conference Freshman of the Year in 2019-20 who vanished from relevance last season, mostly due to injuries. He’s an athletic forward who can defend multiple positions, and though Owens may have passed him in that particular role, DCH can still be a useful piece if he can rediscover his rookie form.
Regardless, the heart of the team will be the potent and promising backcourt. Brandon Whitney started 27 games as a freshman point guard, and Parker is a Sixth Man of the Year candidate as one of the best passers in the entire country. Parker’s vision and lethal lounge-range marksmanship boosts the offense, and Montana is deadly when both players share the court:
They have plenty of weapons to pass to, with Beasley and Vazquez being two of the best snipers in the conference (both shot over 90% from the charity stripe as well). Owens, meanwhile, is probably the most likely to vault to stardom thanks to his positional versatility and ability to score inside or out. Whether he was playing the 3 or the 4, his presence clearly boosted the offense:
Note: D-I games only
Lineups with both Owens and DCH could give opponents nightmares, and JUCO wing Lonnell Martin adds another option capable of playing a variety of positions.
Defensively, Montana is a strict man-to-man outfit that takes away the three-point line – a key in a league full of gunners. DeCuire’s teams always commit a ton of fouls, but his best defenses offset that by forcing a bevy of turnovers. For the Griz D to go from decent to great, the guards will need to find a way to be more disruptive (helping out on the defensive glass would be a bonus).
Bottom Line: Montana fans were likely disappointed by last season’s results, and given what they’ve come to expect under DeCuire’s reign, that’s understandable. But with so many young players getting reps over the last two seasons and a couple potential impact newcomers, the Griz are poised to surge back to the ranks of the contenders. Whitney and Parker form a terrific two-headed point guard monster, and If Bannan and Owens continue to emerge in the paint, Montana will have excellent balance as well. Southern Utah and Weber State will be the top two teams in most prognostications, but any false steps and the Grizzlies will be ready to devour them – provided they’ve banished those pesky second half yips.
4. Montana St.
Key Returners: Xavier Bishop (extra year), Amin Adamu (extra year), Jubrile Belo, Abdul Mohamed (extra year), Borja Fernandez, Nick Gazelas, Tyler Patterson
Key Losses: Mike Hood
Key Newcomers: RaeQuan Battle (Washington), Mareng Gatkuoth (JUCO), Alex Germer, Jasper Reinalda, Great Osobor, Sam Lecholat, Patrick McMahon
Lineup:
Outlook: For Montana State to come so close to the program’s first NCAA Tournament bid since 1996, only to fall short in the conference tournament final to a prolific Eastern Washington team…well, it must have felt like the Bobcats’ sweet season was lacking the “sprinkle” on top.
Fortunately for the Bobcats, there’s still a Sprinkle on the sideline – that’s Danny Sprinkle, the impressive third-year coach who looks like an outstanding hire so far at his alma mater. In his first two seasons in charge, Sprinkle has already registered the program’s two best KenPom finishes since 2010, and with three key senior starters opting to use the extra COVID year, the Bobcats will have their sights set on finishing that postseason run this time around.
Though the return of those three seniors is indeed massive, I need you to hold that thought for a second, because Jubrile Belo is really the heartbeat of this team. A physical bruiser in the post, he repeatedly punishes other Big Sky big men and lives at the free throw line, ranking 12th in the entire country in fouls drawn per 40 minutes. Sprinkle is happy to let the aggressive Englishman work against single coverage, and he has a devastating drop step to his left hand (despite being a righty):
Per Synergy, Belo tallied 1.041 points per possession on his post ups, good for the 87th percentile nationally. He struggled more when doubled and forced to pass – his vision and passing from the block are definitely still developing – but if he adds that to his game, the Bobcat offense becomes a real problem to defend.
Belo is complemented well by jitterbug point guard Xavier Bishop and slashing wing Amin Adamu, two of the COVID returners. Bishop may be tiny (listed at just 5’8), but he’s a smart passer and clever scorer out of the pick-and-roll, another staple of the Bobcat attack. Adamu is similarly skilled with the ball in his hands, and he brings a completely different style than Bishop thanks to his size and strength. Unsurprisingly, Bishop struggled to score inside the arc (sub-50% at the rim), and Adamu had almost twice as many turnovers as assists (33 to 59), meaning both veterans still have significant room for development.
Neither Bishop nor Adamu is a high-volume 3P shooter (the team largely is not as a whole), but both guys can punish sagging defenses if they stray too far to harass Belo. That description fits most of the rotation, actually. Abdul Mohamed is the final super senior, and his ability to hit a few shots while also being utterly dominant on the glass (led the Big Sky in defensive rebound rate) makes him a sneaky two-way weapon. Fellow forward Borja Fernandez has a similar repertoire, though it’s something of a “Mohamed Lite” game.
Tyler Patterson started most of the year before falling out of the rotation late (he did not score in the final eight games), but the rising sophomore flashed a smooth stroke early in the season before slumping in Big Sky play, and Nick Gazelas was a useful contributor as a catch-and-shoot threat. Kellen Tynes seized major minutes when Patterson faded, a savvy cutter and pesky defender who is not a perimeter threat whatsoever. However, all three players may cede minutes to tantalizing Washington transfer RaeQuan Battle.
Battle is a former top 100 recruit who fell into the toxic vat of acid that was the Husky offense, losing confidence and playing time at alarming rates last season. A change of scenery could revitalize his dormant talents, and the 6’5 wing has the ability to be a force in the Big Sky if Sprinkle can help him rediscover his game.
Battle’s athleticism could bookend Adamu well on the wing defensively, and finding a way to bother opponents more on this end would be beneficial. Big Sky opponents in particular got too comfortable shooting against MSU’s defense. Bishop is obviously limited by his height, and though Belo is a solid rim protector, he found himself in foul trouble too frequently – and the Bobcats need him on the court:
Outside of the dismal bottom three, the Bobcats had the worst defense in league play, so incremental improvement on this end is needed. One of freshmen Sam Lecholat or Great Osobor is probably the best bet for a reasonable Belo backup, but the feisty Lecholat is undersized, and Osobor — a Brit like Belo — is young and needs time to develop.
Bottom Line: Sprinkle is what most mid-major programs dream of: an alum with real coaching chops. This is the best roster of his tenure so far, and hopes will undoubtedly be high in Bozeman. Belo is an outstanding fulcrum for the offense, and if Bishop and Adamu can both take steps forward in their fifth years, Montana State will be an extremely tough out. Battle is the wild card: he was objectively poor in Seattle, but that was a terrible environment for young players, and Sprinkle is a solid bet to unlock his considerable potential. Topping Southern Utah and Weber State is a tough ask, but MSU is capable of ending that massive NCAA Tournament drought.
5. Northern Colorado
Key Returners: Bodie Hume, Daylen Kountz, Matt Johnson, Kur Jongkuch, Tre’Shon Smoots
Key Losses: Sam Masten, Greg Bowie
Key Newcomers: Dru Kuxhausen (McNeese St.), Trent Hudgens (Santa Clara), Dalton Knecht (JUCO), Bailon Black
Lineup:
Outlook: The baton passed from Jeff Linder to lead assistant Steve Smiley last year, and though some stylistic things did not change, the Bears suffered through a more trying campaign than in the extremely fruitful final three years under Linder. So what happened? How did a team returning 3.5 starters go from 22-9 to 11-11, from 75th in KenPom to 228th?
First and foremost, Jonah Radebaugh was really, really good in Linder’s final campaign. Without him guiding the offense via hyper-efficient shooting and pinpoint passing, the Bears were forced into a more balanced attack, one that struggled to take care of the ball and create the same high-value shots at the rim. And second, Smiley’s defense somewhat inexplicably plummeted from 26th in free throw rate to 255th, without any corresponding rise in turnovers or blocked shots. With a huge portion of last year’s roster back, can Smiley prove that year one was just an aberration?
Let’s first zoom in on what stayed the same. That would be a maniacal focus on shot selection on both ends of the court, avoiding mid-range jumpers like the plague while simultaneously running opponents off the three-point arc and ushering them into those same jumpers. That led to highly beneficial shot distributions:
Perhaps a per game measure might be easier to understand: the Bears took 24.0 triples per game while allowing just 13.3 to opponents. Taking a ton more threes than your opponent while allowing a surplus of mid-rangers starts Northern Colorado off with a mathematical advantage in every game.
That’s especially true considering the caliber of shooters that Smiley has. Bodie Hume, Matt Johnson, and Tre’Shon Smoots all shot above 39% on solid volume, and McNeese State transfer Dru Kuxhausen might actually be the best of the bunch, having canned 199 of his 458 attempts through two years there (43.4% on 3.6 makes per game – alert the Greeley Fire Department). Plus, Santa Clara transfer Trent Hudgens carries a reputation as a shooter, and JUCO import and local Coloradan Dalton Knecht knocked down 39.5% of his attempts last year, too (albeit on low volume). The Bears ranked 22nd nationally in 3P% last season, and considering the array of weapons present, that could potentially rise even higher.
The process of getting those shots was messier than usual, though. Linder’s offenses always had a supernova star or two controlling the show and setting the table for others (Radebaugh, Jordan Davis, Andre Spight), but these Bears don’t quite have the same big-time creator. Johnson and Smoots are capable ball-handlers, but they lack the same dynamism to repeatedly create advantages and bend defenses. Kountz, the former Colorado Buffalo, has that ability, but he’s missing the vision and passing gene to fully weaponize it. As such, turnovers really piled up, and without some internal development from Johnson and Smoots, that problem may persist.
That issue also affected the bigs, most notably Kur Jongkuch, the Bears’ Canadian paint presence and frequent roll man in Smiley’s bevy of PnR looks. His field goal percentage dropped from 69.4% against D-I competition in 2019-20 to 55.4% last year, emphasizing the drop in quality of his attempts. He did still function as a solid post up threat, though. Smiley also utilized Hume as a deadly pick-and-pop threat, a savvy way to open up space for Johnson, Kountz, and Smoots as they rounded the screen (also an easier read/pass to make).
Defensively, the aforementioned rise in fouling is tougher to explain. The roster is a little limited in terms of size and length (something Kuxhausen is not going to alleviate), prompting Smiley to try more extended zone looks. The Bears’ pick-and-roll defense was appalling, with Synergy tallying their defense against PnR ball-handlers in just the 2nd percentile nationally – in stark contrast to their defense of spot ups, which was in the 99th percentile. That’s a conscious scheme choice: on the ShotQuality podcast, Smiley discussed how he refuses to help and rotate, instead forcing opponents to win those PnR situations in a 2v2 game (the Milwaukee Bucks employed this same defensive strategy in the NBA Finals). Still, getting destroyed to that degree underscores the athletic limitations of the roster.
The biggest culprit in the hacking department was freshman big man Jamel Melvin, who was basically an auto-foul when he took the court. Melvin has intriguing potential, particularly for a team in need of a shot-blocker after running opponents off the line with such urgency, but he needs to avoid giving away easy points at the stripe.
Bottom Line: It’s easy to fall in love with the returning production and eye-popping 3P shooting arsenal on this squad, and Smiley’s aggressive approach to analytical basketball should give the Bears an edge each time out. The little things held them back, though, and shoring up the ball-handling and the needless fouling defensively will go a long way towards seeing tangible team improvement. I was tempted to slot the Bears above Montana State, but the Bobcats swept UNC in Greeley, return everyone, finished ahead of UNC in the standings and KenPom, and add a Washington transfer, so 5th it is. Considering Smiley’s coaching pedigree, a higher finish would be far from a surprise, though.
Tier 3
6. Idaho St.
Key Returners: Robert Ford III, Tarik Cool, Austin Smellie, Brayden Parker, Malik Porter, Daxton Carr
Key Losses: None!
Key Newcomers: Jared Rodriguez (San Diego), Pablo Tamba, A.J. Burgin, Louis Stormark
Lineup:
Outlook: If you liked the 2020-21 Idaho State Bengals, then let me tell you: you are going to LOVE the 2021-22 version! Every rotation player is back, giving Coach Ryan Looney an extremely veteran team that weathered COVID to post the program’s first over-.500 season in conference since 2016 (and second since 2009).
That combination of success and continuity is the DNA code for preseason optimism, so I will understand if this ranking strikes a negative chord with Bengal nation. Analytically, though, the Bengals actually ranked 9th of the Big Sky’s 11 teams at both KenPom and Bart Torvik, indicating some “over-performance” to their 8-6 conference record. Plus, they avoided playing Weber State and Southern Utah entirely, two of the clear top three teams (in the Bengals’ defense, they did split with the third team, Eastern Washington, on the road).
For Idaho State to make good on that optimism (and make me look silly), Looney and Co. will need to see marked improvement offensively, where the team’s lack of shooting and ball security undermined a physical frontcourt that imposed its will on opponents. Brayden Parker and Malik Porter helped the Bengals rank 2nd in the conference in offensive rebound rate, allowing them to compensate somewhat for the erratic outside shooting, and sophomore Zach Visentin flashed enough potential to think he can eventually be Parker’s successor inside. Thanks to the Parker/Porter duo, Looney turned to the post as ISU’s primary source of offense, using with nearly a quarter of possessions involving a post up:
Unfortunately, Parker and the Bengals were relatively inefficient on such plays, often hampered by dig-downs and double-teams as foes were unafraid to leave shooters.
Daxton Carr started the final 19 games in hopes of having a stretch four on the court, but opponents did not fear his dismal 26.6% success rate from downtown. San Diego transfer Jared Rodriguez will challenge for Carr’s minutes, and the Big Sky boomerang (he began his career at rival Idaho!) has a silky stroke that could make an instant impact.
The starting backcourt of Tarik Cool and Robert Ford both shot just 31.1% from deep in conference play, and wing Austin Smellie slumped from beyond the arc, all of which combined to constrict the court on Parker and Porter inside. Emmit Taylor was a sniper in rare cameos last year, hitting an absurd 57% of his 42 triples, but his minutes were capped by defensive concerns. If he can progress on that end and get on the court more, that would provide a significant lift to the perimeter attack.
Cool is a streaky scorer who can catch lightning in a bottle at times – he exploded for 41 points against Air Force in November of 2019 – but he and Ford are also part of the turnover problem. In Big Sky play, the pair combined for 74 assists…and 74 turnovers. Looney desperately needs more efficient playmaking from his veteran backcourt, because it’s almost impossible to have a strong offense when you rank 338th in turnover rate as ISU did.
Fortunately for the Bengals, they can rely on a rock-solid defense to lead the charge. Looney’s man-to-man scheme runs opponents off the three-point line, and Parker and Porter made life difficult on opponents inside the paint. Idaho State led the Big Sky and ranked 21st nationally in 2P% defense, and when you combine that with strong work on the defensive glass, that’s a recipe for ranking 2nd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in league play (per KenPom).
Bottom Line: Looney has done exemplary work through just two seasons in Pocatello, quickly turning the program around after a tumultuous first year. With basically everyone back, he can build on last year’s success — particularly on the defensive end, where the Bengals’ stout interior should be sustainable from year to year. If Rodriguez and Taylor can add to the offensive pop and Cool/Ford clean up the rough edges in their games, Idaho St. can dream of a top three finish, though unseating Weber State and Southern Utah at the very top will take a truly special campaign.
7. Eastern Washington
Key Returners: Ellis Magnuson, Steele Venters
Key Losses: Tanner Groves (transfer), Jacob Davison (transfer), Kim Aiken (transfer), Jacob Groves (transfer), Tyler Robertson (transfer), Michael Meadows (transfer), Jack Perry (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Rylan Bergersen (Central Arkansas), Angelo Allegri (UNC Greensboro), Linton Acliese III (Division II), Imhotep George (JUCO), Casey Jones, Mason Landdeck
Lineup:
Outlook: You’ll always have that first 30 minutes, Eagles fans…
Eastern Washington gave big bad Kansas everything it could handle in the NCAA Tournament’s first round, leading by eight at halftime and two with 10 minutes to play, flirting with the program’s first Big Dance win in history. Unfortunately, the Jayhawks outlasted the Eagles in the end, but it was unquestionably a thrilling moment for the team and fans alike.
Hopefully everyone truly enjoyed the moment, because few programs are undergoing a harder reset this offseason. Every player who registered a point, rebound, and assist from that game is now gone, putting EWU in some unenviable company:
Creighton and Georgia at least have the good fortune of retaining their coach; the other five schools are undergoing change on the sideline, as well (ex-EWU coach Shantay Legans goes from one rebuild to another at Portland). David Riley takes over in Cheney after a decade on the staff, and the 32-year-old’s connections with the school/region go even further back: he played for former coach Jim Hayford at Whitworth University in Spokane.
That means that even with so much change happening around the program, the style on the court should at least remain consistent. That typically means a three-point-happy attack with a multitude of shooters spreading the floor, and both Legans and Hayford preferred to play through bigger ball-handlers and high post passers.
Come on down, Rylan Bergersen The 6’6 Central Arkansas transfer is a perfect addition to what Riley wants to do offensively. Injuries pressed Bergersen into point guard duties for the Bears last year, and he ended up ranking 75th in the entire country in assist rate. He’s also a skilled three-level scorer, and he could immediately be an all-conference player in Riley’s system. Fellow newcomer Angelo Allegri is another floor spacer with size who played a key role on multiple strong UNCG teams, though the southpaw lacks Bergersen’s playmaking chops.
The other candidates to fill the creation void are actually incumbents. Point guard Ellis Magnuson started every game of his freshman season but took a back seat last year; he’s a smart ball mover but does not bring much to the table as a scorer. Steele Venters showed real upside in limited minutes, most notably for a stretch in early February, and his size + shooting combination should fit Riley’s system well.
The rest of the rotation is incredibly unsettled. Two Division II transfers, guard Sean Kirk and big man Linton Acliese, had their seasons axed by COVID last year. Imhotep George only managed to play four games at Tallahassee Community College; that lack of development for a full year is concerning, though he oozes upside. As a result, a bevy of freshmen will all have opportunities to play, and the group that took a prep school year – Casey Jones, Ethan Price, Michael Folarin – might have the edge, especially early on. Given Riley’s coaching background, the players that prove the most comfortable from beyond the arc will warrant immediate minutes.
As outstanding as Hayford was while in charge of EWU, his defenses always struggled, and Legans did a terrific job elevating that side of the ball despite often facing the same athletic limitations that hamstrung Hayford. He largely played a conservative man-to-man that emphasized keeping the ball in front and not gambling, an approach that makes sense for Riley, as well. Kim Aiken will be greatly missed as a multi-positional blanket, and though Riley can roll out some tall lineups with Bergersen at point guard and a bunch of wings/forwards around him, this end of the floor may still be something of a struggle for the Eagles.
Bottom Line: Jim Hayford laid a terrific foundation, and Shantay Legans continued to elevate the Eagle program after taking over for his mentor. The massive player exodus this offseason will certainly hinder David Riley’s ability to maintain that momentum and presents a huge range of outcomes for this season, but Bergersen and Allegri should be outstanding additions, and Riley has obviously learned from two smart basketball minds. It’s a new era in Cheney, but it should be one with a familiar flavor. If Riley can carry over the lessons learned over his years with Hayford and Legans, Eastern Washington will be back into Big Sky contention sooner rather than later.
8. Portland St.
Key Returners: Khalid Thomas, Paris Dawson, Ian Burke, Jacob Eyman
Key Losses: James Scott (transfer), John Hall (transfer), Elijah Hardy (transfer), Amari McCray (transfer), Kyle Greeley (transfer)
Key Newcomers: James Jean-Marie (Hawaii), Michael Carter (Long Beach St.), Damion Squire (UC Davis), Ezekiel Alley (D-II), Marlon Ruffin (Omaha), Mikal Starks (Georgia), Hayden Curtiss (Portland)
Lineup:
Outlook: It’s a new era for Portland State basketball. Barret Peery brought a distinct style with him: aggressive, pressure-heavy, feeding on the transfer portal to give the program talent and depth. But after he took the associate head coach job at Texas Tech this offseason, his former assistant Jase Coburn took over, and Coburn brings a mindset:
So turn off your heating and air conditioning and leave your breakfast on the counter. It’s time to get tough and be hungry in the Rose City.
One aspect of the program that clearly will not change is the mining of the transfer portal for talent, as Coburn adds seven newcomers to the fold, six of which are of the Division I variety. They join Khalid Thomas (Arizona St.) and Ian Burke (Seattle), both of whom also began their careers elsewhere, giving Coburn multiple lineup options and impressive depth.
Being that he was on Peery’s staff for four years, Coburn likely maintains some of his old boss’s stylistic choices, including the heavy emphasis on defensive pressure. The Vikings led the country in full court pressure rate last year, and they’ve been a unique presence in the Big Sky for all of Peery’s tenure:
The 6’10 Thomas is an active, long presence at the top of many of those looks, and the new backcourt of Damion Squire and Michael Carter provides quickness and size. Incumbents Burke and Paris Dawson both started most games in the backcourt, but they’ll be hard-pressed (ha!) to beat out the incoming talent. Even D-II transfer Ezekiel Alley and Georgia transfer Mikal Starks can challenge those two for minutes, as well, giving Coburn the classic “good problem to have” as he sorts out his rotation.
Interestingly for such an aggressive team, the Vikings’ defense was MUCH better in the half court than in open court situations. Per Synergy, they were in the 94th percentile in half court, as opposed to the 25th percentile in transition. That might tempt Coburn into reining in his rangy defenders, but even a significant step back in pressure would still see Portland State rank highly in such usage.
Offensively, Portland State was a nightmare, ranking 11th (dead last) in the Big Sky in all three shooting categories: 3P%, 2P%, and FT%. The Vikings tried to compensate for that by barraging the offensive glass, but second chances only help so much if none of the shots ever go in.
Squire is a steady presence who can create offense for others in the backcourt, and Omaha transfer Marlon Ruffin filled it up for the Mavericks whenever he was healthy (his perimeter shooting will be especially useful). Dawson was impressive as a pick-and-roll creator as a freshman, but Burke was barely noticeable on the court, playing a much more deferential role in Peery’s PnR-heavy system. With so many other mouths to feed, that might actually help Burke see minutes as someone who does not need the ball.
Last year’s offense featured big wing James Scott as the primary initiator, and if Coburn opts to stay consistent in that approach, the 6’5 Carter is a perfect fit. He uses his size to pass over the top of defenses, he can knock down open jumpers (17-for-43 from 3P last year in just 13 games), and the way he uses his frame allows him to live at the free throw line. He has some off-court question marks, though (suspended and then dismissed by Long Beach State), so it might be savvy to avoid being too highly leveraged on his game.
If Coburn wants to turn his attention inward, James Jean-Marie may end up being the focal point of the attack. The well-traveled Jean-Marie is a versatile interior player who is adept at punishing mismatches and can even space the floor out beyond the arc. Pairing him with Thomas will give foes headaches considering the deep and varied skill sets that both offer. They’ll rotate with Jacob Eyman, the Big Sky’s best shot-blocker on a per-minute basis, and Hayden Curtiss, a Portland transfer who is a strong rim protector in his own right.
Bottom Line: Peery’s approach made sense: assemble talent, unleash it on less athletic Big Sky foes via an up-and-down, antagonistic style that keeps them uncomfortable. It never fully translated to big success, however, going just 38-36 in league play over four years, and Peery’s final KenPom rating (245th) was 81 spots worse than his debut finish (164th). Coburn’s roster can employ the same tactics, and he will hope his hunger and toughness are the elements needed to finally push the Vikings up the standings.
Tier 4
9. Sacramento St.
Key Returners: Bryce Fowler, William FitzPatrick, Zach Chappell, Deshaun Highler
Key Losses: Ethan Esposito, Brandon Davis, David Jones (transfer), Christian Terrell, Samaad Hector
Key Newcomers: Jonathan Komagum (Toledo), Cameron Wilbon (Robert Morris), Hugo Clarkin (San Jose St.), Marcus Greene, Akili Evans, Chris Holley
Lineup:
Outlook: The Broadway musical Cats ran for 18 years on Broadway, the longest-running show in history at the time (it has since been passed by several other shows). In Sacramento, another kind of “cats” – head coach Brian Katz – is now entering the 14th season at the helm of the Hornets basketball program, the longest single tenure for a coach there. Technically, Jack Heron coached longer (15 seasons), but he had to miss a year in the middle due to illness, leaving Katz in hot pursuit of both the most games coached and most wins in school history. Unfortunately, he looks more likely to gain ground in the former than the latter this year.
The Hornets return two starters from last year’s disappointing squad that limped to an 8-12 (5-9) finish, and though Katz was far more active in the transfer portal this offseason than in the past, the Hornets still look a few steps behind a league that features a ton of 5th-year COVID players and incoming talent. Bryce Fowler is an all-conference talent thanks to his ultra-versatile game, and William FitzPatrick is one of the best perimeter shooters in Big Sky territory, but assembling the rest of the roster into a true contender will put Katz to the test.
Sacramento State does not have what the other teams have, so Katz’s decidedly indelicate style can help compensate for the talent gap the Hornets face (it’s probably not clear, but that’s a clumsily-inserted and incredibly vague When Harry Met Sally/Katz’s Deli/“I’ll have what she’s having” reference – I have to entertain myself somehow while writing these). Katz’s teams typically play at a crawling pace, keeping games in the half court and playing through the post to generate offense. Per Synergy, the Hornets ranked 13th nationally in percentage of possessions that featured a post up, exceeding the rate of more prominent post-heavy teams like Iowa, UNC, and Michigan.
Ethan Esposito is gone as the Hornets’ primary interior threat, but Fowler can take smaller defenders to the block, and he’s especially useful as a passer if defenses send too much help:
He largely plays a small-ball four, so he does not always have a huge size advantage, but he’s crafty and smart. Samaad Hector vanished from the roster this offseason, leaving Katz with more limited options if he wants to move Fowler to the wing.
Fortunately, transfers Jonathan Komagum (Toledo) and Hugo Clarkin (San Jose St.) add size to the frontcourt. Neither carries a reputation as a scoring threat, but they will be facing somewhat lesser competition and playing in a far more paint-oriented scheme. At minimum, they should reinforce the Hornets’ nonexistent interior defense; Sacramento State ranked a mortifying 334th nationally in 2P% defense (shouts to NAU for somehow being worse). Katz’s best defense (2020) featured a true rim presence in Joshua Patton, so if he can coax decent play out of his two new centers, that would aid a side of the ball that is typically a weakness.
Fowler will also frequently handle the ball, but finding some playmaking around him will be important following the departure of point guard Brandon Davis. Deshaun Highler and Zach Chappell both showed quite well in partial-season debuts, and if both can actually get on the court at the same time, that would be a massive boost for a backcourt lacking in creative options. FitzPatrick is deadly, but he does not create his own shot, so having ball-handlers alongside him is vital. Freshman Marcus Greene also has a chance to crack the starting lineup, a savvy playmaker who hails from a strong high school program and took a prep school year during 2020-21.
The wing rotation also has solid reinforcements to join FitzPatrick and Teiano Hardee, most notably in the form of Robert Morris transfer Cameron Wilbon, an athletic wing who can be used interchangeably with Fowler (at least on the defensive end – he does not have the same kind of offensive game). Freshman Akili Evans will also see some minutes, but he is not a Big Sky needle-mover in year one.
Bottom Line: Fowler and FitzPatrick provide a solid foundation, and if Highler and Chappell can put together healthy seasons while the three D-I transfers bolster the rotation, the Hornets can definitely finish higher than this. The personnel does not wholly fit Katz’s offensive approach, though, so he may need to shift the attack without a true big man weapon inside. The Hornets also lack the athleticism of the top tier Big Sky squads (or even a transfer-laden group like Portland St.). Still, though Katz may not have the accolades of Cats, he may yet outlast his Broadway counterpart.
10. Northern Arizona
Key Returners: Keith Haymon, Nik Mains, Carson Towt, Jay Green, Isaiah Lewis, Ajang Aguek, Carter Mahaney
Key Losses: Cameron Shelton (transfer), Luke Avdalovic (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Jalen Cone (Virginia Tech), Mason Stark (D-II), Justus Rainwater (FGCU), Ezekiel Richards (Santa Clara), Jayden Jackson, Colin Carey, Diego Campisano
Lineup:
Outlook: Flagstaff is a beautiful city. Situated in the mountains, it’s a welcome respite from the deserts in the southern part of the state. Even Northern Arizona’s campus has some unique features, most notably the Walkup Skydome, the cavernous stadium that houses both NAU’s football and basketball teams. Unfortunately, the hoops squad’s interior defense was such a dumpster fire that it threatened to envelop the entirety of the city in its inferno, and Coach Shane Burcar’s primary objective this year should be extinguishing the lingering flames from that nightmare.
NAU ranked 345th nationally in 2P% defense en route to a #344 finish in KenPom’s AdjDE rankings and a 6-16 overall record (4-10 in conference), completely undermining a surprisingly adequate offense. To contextualize that, the only two teams to have a worse 2P% defense were Portland, who was routinely battered by Gonzaga, BYU, and others in an outrageously strong WCC, and Chicago St., who played a non-conference schedule with 6ish players before packing things in for the year.
In an effort to fight that fire, Burcar brought in two big man transfers to eat space inside. Ezekiel Richards (Santa Clara) and Justus Rainwater (FGCU) both played sparingly in 2020-21, but they bring genuine athletic size to the table, something NAU sorely lacked last year. Nik Mains is purely a stretch big man, and while Carson Towt battled on the glass, he was not bothering opposing drivers. Ajang Aguek is merely a solid but unspectacular rotation piece.
Rainwater was a legitimate presence for the Eagles in 2019-20 before getting buried last year, and Richards obviously offers pedigree after stepping down from the WCC. Mains and Towt started eight of NAU’s final nine games, so Burcar must decide whether to bring one off the bench this time around.
The glaring weakness inside is, of course, a two-part problem. The perimeter defense had more holes than Camp Green Lake, and that allowed repeated easy drives at the Lumberjacks’ overmatched interior defenders. Burcar did not address that issue in quite the same way this offseason – a rather alarming question mark entering 2021-22. Carter Mahaney and Keith Haymon will hopefully improve with experience, and Isaiah Lewis has some length, but that will not be enough. Former UNLV transfer Jay Green was supposed to help, but he became such a horrifying liability on offense (1-for-23 from deep, 31 turnovers to just 22 assists) that he could not stay on the floor.
Burcar tried to combat this deficiency by packing his defense inside and forcing jump shots, but opponents comfortably knocked those down from all over the court as well. Perhaps some beneficial regression could be in the cards, but again, the Lumberjacks’ lack of length and quickness limits their ability to bother opponents.
If NAU is to have any hope this year, it will be due to lightning rod addition Jalen Cone at point guard, a former top 100 recruit at Virginia Tech who steps into the mega high-usage Cameron Shelton role. Cone is an explosive scorer with deep, deep range on his jumper, and he’ll have the ball in his hands far more than he did in Blacksburg. Between Mains and Haymon, Burcar can put some shooting around him in a heavily pick-and-roll system, and Cone’s ability to balance scoring and distributing will be put to the test. Another issue: Cone is tiny, and like Shelton, he’ll probably exhaust himself with such a huge offensive burden. Again: the perimeter defense here is frighteningly poor.
If NAU played faster, I’d throw out a “Cone will lead the country in scoring” bold prediction, but considering the Lumberjacks’ stagnant pace under Burcar, he probably cannot quite catch the likes of Oral Roberts’ Max Abmas or Detroit’s Antoine Davis.
Bottom Line: NAU’s (lack of) defense made it impossible to compete last year unless the Lumberjacks were on fire from beyond the arc, and while that did happen at times (how did this team almost win at Southern Utah?), it’s a difficult strategy to rely on night after night. Rainwater and Richards will help inside, but the perimeter frailties will linger. Cone may be Captain America-esque in the Big Sky, but his sidekicks are decidedly not Avengers caliber, and NAU looks like a lower tier finisher once again.
Tier 5
11. Idaho
Key Returners: Gabe Quinnett, Tanner Christensen, Ethan Kilgore
Key Losses: Damen Thacker (transfer), Ja’Vary Christmas (transfer), Scott Blakney (transfer), Hunter-Jack Madden (transfer), Babacar Thiombane (transfer), DeAndre Robinson (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Mikey Dixon (Grand Canyon), Nolan Bertain (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi), Philip Pepple (SIU Edwardsville), Rashad Smith (Grand Canyon), Trevante Anderson (San Francisco), R.J. Walker, Yusef Salih
Lineup:
Outlook: A potato may not be the most interesting of foodstuffs (though it’s true – if you fry anything, it’s immediately more delicious), but if you have been in Idaho during the last three years, checking out the local potato farm was probably a better option than seeing the Idaho basketball team. The Vandals have amassed an appalling 14-72 record over that span (7-51 in league play), tumbling from a respectable Big Sky contender under Don Verlin to the dregs of the sport while on probation after Verlin *gasp* “promoted an undergraduate student manager who had not completed his degree to director of basketball operations and allowed the newly promoted director of operations to coach during games.” THE HORROR!!
Zac Claus has been tasked with resurrecting the program, but last year’s final KenPom rank of 350th does not exactly signal an upward trajectory. To his credit, Claus went hard in the transfer portal this offseason, pulling in a couple solid names in an attempt to reinvigorate the moribund Vandals. Mikey Dixon, who is now on his 4th Division I school and began his career as a star at Quinnipiac, should immediately be Idaho’s most dynamic perimeter player since Victor Sanders in 2018, and SIUE’s Philip Pepple should be Idaho’s best shot-blocker in a decade. Those two, in addition to some other depth-boosting pieces, give Idaho some optimism that was difficult to muster last offseason.
On the offensive end, Claus has largely maintained Verlin’s motion-heavy system replete with off-ball screening action, using that as a springboard to offense (and to mask the Vandals’ lack of 1-v-1 creation). Dixon adds another to dimension to the attack thanks to his ability to slash from the wing, but he’s also a terrific shooter (37% on over 300 attempts). Vandal vet Gabe Quinnett and Texas A&M Corpus Christi import Nolan Bertain are similarly capable gunners, ideally opening up space for Dixon and San Francisco guard Trevante Anderson, who never quite found a niche for the Dons. If former JUCO transfer Kendall McHugh and/or freshmen RJ Walker and Yusef Salih can add some playmaking, the perimeter group might actually have some juice to it.
With such little creation from the guards last year, Claus fed departed big man Scott Blakney early and often, and he delivered, scoring in the 86th percentile nationally on post ups. Blakney has migrated to conference foe Montana, and unfortunately, Tanner Christensen lagged far behind (and he entered school with more of a “stretch big” reputation). Thus, Pepple will be asked to play a key role on the offensive end, as well, though his post game does not give off “fulcrum of the offense” vibes. Idaho is bereft of size beyond those two, so four-guard lineups with Ethan Kilgore, Rashad Smith (another GCU transfer), or NAIA transfer JeMeil King as the nominal power forward will be the norm, though all three need to prove their effectiveness at this level.
Defensively, Idaho was a complete sieve last year, tumbling to 349th in KenPom’s AdjDE rankings (after finishing 352nd in 2018-19, as well – woof). Pepple will cover up some deficiencies inside, and regression from opponents’ shooting would help a lot (38.1% is tough to defend). Claus’ switch to a more man-to-man system has also taken away some of the (wide, wide) open shots. Plus, this group has considerably more athleticism and length across the roster, so that man-to-man might actually have a fighting chance.
Bottom Line: Look, what do you want me to say here? Idaho has yet to show any signs of life under Claus, including a disappointing 8-14 ATS record last year, falling short of already-low expectations. Dixon, Pepple, and Anderson offer a halfway decent shot to be not-quite-horrendous, but climbing out of the Big Sky cellar and actually passing a team like Northern Arizona or Sacramento State remains a tough ask. Verlin did not leave Claus in a good place, but with the AD who hired him sadly having passed away, Claus’ seat may be burning in the deep fryer by the end of the year.