- Ky McKeon
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Charles Bassey, Jr., Western Kentucky
Coach of the Year: Rick Stansbury, Western Kentucky
Newcomer of the Year: Jamal Bieniemy, Jr., UTEP
Freshman of the Year: Jared Garcia, Fr., Charlotte
Tier 1
1. Western Kentucky
Key Returners: Charles Bassey, Taveion Hollingsworth, Josh Anderson, Carson Williams, Jordan Rawls
Key Losses: Camron Justice, Jared Savage, Jeremiah Gambrell
Key Newcomers: Kenny Cooper (Lipscomb), Luke Frampton (Davidson), Kevin Osawe (JUCO), Dayvion McKnight, Kylen Milton
Lineup:
Outlook: What if I told you the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have NEVER won the C-USA regular season title nor made an NCAA Tournament since joining the league in 2014. Would you believe me? Well you should because it’s 100% true. WKU has been one of the top mid-majors in the country the past three seasons thanks to Rick Stansbury’s uncanny ability to bring in high-ranking talent to Bowling Green, Kentucky. The Hilltoppers have had the #15 and #29 recruiting class under Stansbury yet have still never reached the Big Dance under the long-time head coach. On top of that, Stansbury has been one of the very best at bringing in big-name transfer talent like Virginia’s Darius Thompson, Buffalo’s Lamonte Bearden, or Washington State’s Que Johnson. This season, WKU will once again be arguably the most talented mid-major school in the country – Stansbury brings back four starters including former 5-star C Charles Bassey and adds three enormously impactful transfers. Can the ‘Toppers finally get over the hill?
The talent on this roster is enough to make a Power 6 team blush. I’d even go as far to say that if we saw this roster makeup on a team in a major conference, we’d be calling them a top 40 squad. Bassey’s announcement that he was returning to college for another year was extremely surprising – this guy is an NBA talent capable of producing at the next level and could start for just about any team in college basketball. In Bassey WKU has arguably the best defender in the conference, one of the best rebounders, and one of the best post scorers – whether playing against C-USA foes or the likes of Louisville, Bassey is just about unstoppable.
Bassey’s sophomore season was ended prematurely with a broken leg suffered in December but all signs point to him being ready to go whenever this year gets underway. He’ll be on the shortlist for C-USA POY and a fringe All-American candidate.
When Bassey went down with his injury, WKU shifted 6’5” Northern Kentucky transfer Carson Williams to the 5-spot. How many 6’5” guys can competently play center in Division I basketball? The answer might be just one. Williams, a 3rd Team All-CUSA selection in 2019-20, turned in his best collegiate season last year even after killing it for two years at NKU. With his ability to stretch the floor, rebound, and pass, Williams is incredibly difficult to stop on the offensive end – he’s just a rock-solid basketball player who will probably welcome guarding PFs next year with the return of Bassey.
Stansbury had little to no depth last year across his roster and that will be the case again this season, at least in the frontcourt. Sophomore Isaiah Cozart could see more run behind Bassey / Williams, but the most likely candidate for major minutes at one of the forward spots off the bench is JUCO transfer Kevin Osawe. Ranked as the 10th best JUCO prospect in the country, Osawe was a 3rd Team NJCAA All-American last season playing for one of the very best programs in the nation in Vincennes. Osawe can shoot, rebound, score, and defend – his athleticism and versatility will fit in perfectly with the WKU system.
Josh Anderson, a 6’6” senior out of Baton Rouge, played a lot of small-ball 4 last season and likely continues seeing run there in addition to his natural spot on the wing. Mostly a defensive weapon, Anderson racks up steals and blocks like a Hungry, Hungry Hippo gobbles white plastic balls. Very much a downhill rim runner, Anderson is a menace in the open floor, and he attacks the rim with reckless abandon, ranking #1 in C-USA in FT rate last season.
The ‘Topper backcourt is loaded. Returning leading scorer Taveion Hollingsworth will reprise his role as go-to-guy and partial ball handler after earning a spot on the league’s All-Conference 1st Team as a junior. Hollingsworth is a smooth, athletic guard who can attack the rim or pull up from deep (though his 3P% left something to be desired last year). Along with Bassey, Hollingsworth is a bona fide C-USA POY contender, especially if he puts up performances like he did on February 27th when he poured in 43 points against the unsuspecting La Tech Bulldogs. Returning with Hollingsworth in the backcourt is sophomore Jordan Rawls, an All-Freshman Team member last season. Rawls can run point and adds shooting to the floor.
Rawls will compete with Lipscomb transfer Kenny Cooper for a starting gig next to Hollingsworth. Cooper was the starting PG for a VERY good Lipscomb team two seasons ago and has developed into a knockdown outside shooter. The lefty guard ranked 2nd in the A-Sun in assist rate in 2018-19 and promises to be a steady presence at the forefront of what should be a potent Hilltopper attack.
Cooper’s fellow DI transfer Luke Frampton should also play a large role in the rotation this season after stepping away from basketball last year due to personal reasons. At Davidson, Frampton gained a reputation for being one of the best pure shooters in America. If there was one weakness on the WKU roster it was shooting, and Frampton just fortified that weakness like Professor Frink fortifying his battle robot Chassis Clay, aka Killhammed Aieee, in the Simpsons episode “I, (Annoyed Grunt)-bot”.
Rounding out the backcourt rotation are two freshman, 3-star CG Dayvion McKnight and unranked wing Kylen Milton. McKnight is the reigning Mr. Basketball in the state of Kentucky, a smooth guard who likes to mix it up and compete on the glass. He’ll likely see some sort of run in year one while Milton likely watches most of the season from the pine.
Zooming back out to a macro-view of the WKU landscape, the Hilltoppers should be a potent squad overall offensively after finishing 3rd in the C-USA and top 60 nationally in adjusted offense in 2019-20, per KenPom. In ‘Topper world, attacking the rim and getting to the FT line is key; WKU also looks to score in transition though it isn’t over-reliant on that avenue. With Hollingsworth, Rawls, and Cooper in the mix, expect to see plenty more pick-n-roll sets in the halfcourt, an action the Hilltoppers ranked 20th in frequency last year, per Synergy. Also, with Bassey’s return, WKU will show far more preference towards post-ups where the big man scored in the 97th percentile in the country last season.
Defensively, WKU should bounce back from a decidedly poor year in which it ranked 9th in C-USA, per KenPom. The ‘Toppers forced turnovers but were CRUSHED inside – both on the glass and near the rim – mostly due to a severe lack of size courtesy of the Bassey injury. With Bassey back, that weakness completely disappears, and Williams can slide back to a more natural position. Stansbury played the 46th most zone in the nation last year, which may come down a bit in 2020-21 with Bassey back in the fold. WKU has the requisite athletes to be good on this end, and though Stansbury has yet to have a top-80 defense in Bowling Green, his early-to-mid 2000s Miss State squads were some of the best defensive squads in the country.
Bottom Line: There’s no excuse this year for Rick Stansbury and Western Kentucky – not that there ever really was an excuse considering the heavily skewed talent balance towards the Hilltoppers in C-USA. If WKU fails to win a regular season conference title and/or misses an at-large or auto-bid to the Dance again, it will be an indictment on Stansbury and likely bring into question his longevity at the program.
Tier 2
2. North Texas
Key Returners: Javion Hamlet, Zachary Simmons, James Reese, Thomas Bell, Jahmiah Simmons
Key Losses: Umoja Gibson, Deng Geu, Roosevelt Smart, DJ Draper
Key Newcomers: Mardrez McBride (JUCO), Terence Lewis II (JUCO), Rubin Jones, Mykell Robinson, Abou Ousmane
Lineup:
Outlook: If you aren’t familiar with Grant McCasland, here’s a small taste of why we at the Weave consider him to be one of the top coaches in the land:
Rankings per KenPom
McCasland took over the reins at UNT in 2017 and since then has notched three straight 20-win seasons, the first time that feat has been accomplished in Denton since 2011. The 43-year old coach has injected a Crank-like substance into the Mean Green program, solidifying his squad as an annual conference title contender. It’s almost a certainty McCasland ends up at a Power 6 school in the near future, so enjoy him while you can, UNT fans.
North Texas loses star guard Umoja Gibson to transfer and three other key players from their C-USA champion team, but rest assured McCasland has plenty of pieces with which to chase another title. Javion Hamlet, the reigning Player of the Year in C-USA, returns along with two other starters, last year’s sixth man, and the addition of two highly-ranked JUCO prospects. McCasland has an experienced and talented roster led by the best player in the conference, more than enough to repeat as league champs.
When I referenced the Oscar-worthy movie “Crank” above, I wasn’t referring to McCasland’s preferred style of play. UNT plays quite the opposite of how you’d expect a Chev Chelios-led team to play. Only three schools in the country played at a slower overall tempo than the Mean Green in 2019-20, and UNT ran the “slowest” offense in C-USA play. McCasland’s offensive system is built off the pick-n-roll, an action that Hamlet thrives at exploiting. This play type works so well for the Mean Green thanks to its bevy of knockdown shooters and the playmaking ability of Hamlet. UNT’s offense ranked 34th in the country last year and was by far the best in C-USA. With Hamlet returning and an absolute army of shooters on the perimeter, UNT should once again have one of the elite offenses in the nation.
It’s difficult to describe just how good Hamlet was last season after coming over from the JUCO ranks. One may look at his mere 14.6 PPG average and scoff without considering the tortoise pace at which UNT prefers to play. Hamlet ranked 4th in the league in usage last season and 3rd in O-rating, which is an absolutely insane stat. Usually high-usage players tend to be at least a tad inefficient – Hamlet just seems to do everything right. Another insane stat: Hamlet led the conference in assist rate and also ranked 14th in TO rate, wildly impressive for a player who has the ball in his hands for the majority of every possession down the floor. Ok, final stat: Hamlet led the conference in FT% and shot 43.3% from downtown for the season – the man can simply not be stopped.
Did he double dribble though???
Hamlet’s pick-n-roll partner in crime, 6’10” senior Zachary Simmons, returns this season as well to re-up a dynamic duo that wreaked havoc on the league in 2019-20. Simmons scored 1.317 PPP off ball screen rolls last season, which ranked in the 90th percentile nationally per Synergy. The big man knows his role on the floor – he rebounds, sets screens, scores on the block when needed, and provides decent-enough rim protection on the other end. Due to the Mean Green’s somewhat limited size, Simmons should see as much run as he can handle in his final collegiate year. Freshman center Abou Ousmane could see some minutes at the 5 as well due to the lack of frontcourt bodies; he moves pretty well for his size and could develop into a serviceable center over the next couple years.
Staying in the frontcourt, look for 6’6” senior Thomas Bell and JUCO transfer Terence Lewis II to duke it out for starting PF honors. Bell does a little bit of everything on both ends of the floor and was the quintessential sixth man for the Mean Green last season. Lewis was an Honorable Mention NJCAA All-American last year and is the 57th ranked JUCO prospect in the country. He averaged 18.9 PPG and 9.3 RPG for a good JUCO squad and should contribute immediately at UNT. Undersized forward Jahmiah Simmons, a load on the glass, will provide depth at the 4-spot.
Moving down to the wing, 6’4” senior James Reese appears to have a starting spot locked down after shooting 43.1% from deep in league play last year. Reese, formerly of Buffalo, thrived after coming to Denton, proving to be an excellent spot-up shooter for Hamlet to kick to off drives. He’ll form a scorching one-two punch with JUCO transfer Mardrez McBride, the #52 JUCO prospect in the country and an absolute sniper from distance. McBride shot 52.9% from three-point land last season and has the quickness and athleticism to be a dual threat offensively. He should start right away in Gibson’s stead.
McCasland’s backcourt bench rotation includes sophomore PG Jalen Jackson, redshirt sophomore wing Larry Wise, freshman combo-guard Rubin Jones, and freshman wing Mykell Robinson. Jones and Robinson appear to be the two to watch of this bunch. Jones is a 3-star guard whose length and shooting shops should aid on the defensive and offensive ends, respectively. Robinson is a big-time leaper dripping in defensive potential.
Speaking of defense, UNT’s was good last season though not quite as potent as its offense. McCasland’s bunch was perhaps a bit unlucky in C-USA play, as opposing teams shot a stupid 37.9% from downtown against them. Overall, UNT plays primarily halfcourt man and looks to deny chances at the rim and force turnovers. The Mean Green have the requisite athleticism and experience to be solid on this end once again in 2020-21.
Bottom Line: UNT won’t be sneaking up on anyone this season – the Mean Green are now a known threat in the conference title race and will often feature the best player on the floor in each and every game. McBride should be able to provide enough production to make up for Gibson’s premature departure, and Lewis should be able to make up for Deng Geu’s absence. With a starting five that should feature five upperclassmen, the Mean Green will be a dangerous team to reckon with in Conference USA.
3. Louisiana Tech
Key Returners: Amorie Archibald, Kalob Ledoux, JaColby Pemberton, Isaiah Crawford, Cobe Williams, Andrew Gordon, Exavian Christon
Key Losses: DaQuan Bracey, Derric Jean, Mubarak Muhammed, Oliver Powell
Key Newcomers: Thailand Elder, Jace Bass (JUCO), Kenneth Lofton Jr., Kenny Hunter
Lineup:
Outlook: Eric Konkol has enjoyed five solid years at the helm of Louisiana Tech, winning 20+ games in four of those seasons and keeping his Bulldogs near the top of C-USA. There’s one thing that’s eluded Konkol, however, and that’s an NCAA Tourney bid. To be fair, La Tech was in good position to compete for an auto-bid in 2019-20 had the season not been canceled; additionally, not even Mike White was able to take the Dogs to the promised land during his four-year tenure. Shockingly, LT hasn’t been to the Big Dance since 1991. La Tech loses 1st Team All-Conference guard DaQuan Bracey as well as All-Defensive guard Derric Jean, but the Dogs should be an experienced squad in 2020-21 and plenty capable of making a bid for the NCAA Tournament.
LT’s offense was excellent last season, a balanced attack that allowed ball handlers like Bracey, Jean, and Amorie Archibald to create off the bounce and kick to open shooters on the perimeter. The Bulldogs were the 2nd best 3P shooting team in the league in 2019-20 and were also good at finding high quality shots near the bucket. Archibald likely takes on more point guard duties this year, reclaiming a role he primarily played during his freshman season. A knockdown outside shooter, Archibald can also be a weapon off the ball where he can attack off the catch or off ball screens. Sophomore Cobie Williams should be Archibald’s right-hand-man in the backcourt, a 5’11” guard known for his defensive stopping prowess and long red dreads. Williams wasn’t great offensively last year, but he showed flashes of his dynamic athleticism and should be ready to take a big step forward in his second season. Freshman combo guard Thailand Elder will provide depth at the lead guard and 2-guard positions.
The leading scorer on this year’s iteration of the Bulldogs should be Kalob Ledoux, a former McNeese transfer whose scoring prowess last season earned him C-USA Sixth Man of the Year. Ledoux was instant offense off the pine for La Tech, a guy who could come into the game and take over as the go-to scorer. Ledoux is best spotting up from downtown where he’s a career 37.5% shooter on 405 attempts, but the 6’4” guard is also a capable scorer off the bounce. This year’s version of last year’s Ledoux could very well be JUCO transfer Jace Bass, the #82 JUCO prospect in the land. Bass averaged 30.7 PPG before going down with a season-ending injury 16 games into his sophomore year. He’ll add shooting, scoring, and ball handling to the LT lineup.
Exavian Christon should also be a factor in the rotation but it’s unclear how much of an impact he can make. Christon was a regular starter for LT prior to collapsing on the court seven games into the 2018-19 season. That year, Christon was leading the Dogs in scoring but has yet to fully rediscover his game. He could be a dangerous backcourt asset if he fully regains his confidence and ability. Senior wing Xaiver Armstead likely resumes his deeper role off the bench.
Konkol likes to play 4-out offensively which means we’ll see senior JaColby Pemberton, listed as a guard on the LT roster, play lots of small-ball PF. Pemberton missed time with injury last year but can provide the lineup with a spark of athleticism and hustle plays when healthy. Isaiah Crawford is the ideal 4-man for Konkol’s attack, a 6’6” sophomore who was enjoying a fantastic first season before tearing his ACL in January. Crawford is extremely skilled, can shoot the three, and contributes on both ends of the floor, even averaging 2.1 SPG over his final seven games last year:
He’ll likely team up with 6’10” senior Andrew Gordon as La Tech’s primary starting frontcourt. Gordon is a beast on the boards and a bona fide rim protector; he’s limited offensively but takes up space as a screener or sealer in the lane.
Rounding out Konkol’s frontcourt will be junior Stacey Thomas and freshmen Kenneth Lofton Jr. (not related to Kenny Lofton the baseball player) and Kenny Hunter (also not related to Kenny Lofton the baseball player). Lofton likely has the biggest impact of the trio; he’s a wide post-man with good hands and a feathery jumper. Hunter is a 3-star recruit according to some outlets and projects mostly as a shot blocker / defensive presence.
Despite Jean’s departure, La Tech is shaping up to once again be a stout defensive team. The Bulldogs boasted the league’s best defense in 2019-20, ranking 3rd in C-USA in TO rate and 2nd in 3P% allowed. Konkol is a strictly man-to-man coach; his players get into the jocks of opponents and shut down dribble-drives – no team was better last season from a points per possession basis at stopping isolation situations. Look for Williams to key the perimeter defensive efforts this season while Gordon locks down the paint.
Bottom Line: La Tech was KenPom’s #1 C-USA team in 2019-20 and it has a legitimate shot to be right up there again in 2020-21. Western Kentucky is loaded with talent (as always) but Konkol has built a rock solid program in Ruston and will have a team chock full of senior leaders and burgeoning young potential.
4. Marshall
Key Returners: Taevion Kinsey, Jarrod West, Iran Bennett, Andrew Taylor, Jannson Williams, Mikel Beyers, Darius George, Goran Miladinovic, Marko Sarenac
Key Losses: None
Key Newcomers: David Early, Obinna Anochili-Killen
Lineup:
Outlook: It’s possible I’ve found the team I will be irrationally high on for the 2020-21 season. Marshall returns everyone from the 318th youngest squad in the nation last year, a squad that exceeded expectations and ended the season a respectable 17-15 (10-8). Dan D’Antoni enters his 7th year as head coach in Huntington and looks to bring his Herd back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2018.
Marshall has been one of the most exciting teams to watch under D’Antoni’s direction, playing at one of the fastest tempos in the country year in and year out. D’Antoni has never had a squad rank outside the national top 7 in offensive APL nor the top 8 in overall adjusted tempo. His Herd run, run, run in the open floor, looking to score quick off leak-outs and transition threes. D’Antoni starts three guards capable of handling the ball and pushing the pace, perfect for his preferred style of play. Marshall usually ranks in the top 30 or 40 in the country in 3PA rate but that fell to 148th last season as the Herd looked to attack the basket more in 2019-20. Marshall ran pick-n-rolls at a top 20 national rate in an attempt to put its playmakers in the best position possible to score and create open shots for teammates. While the idea of Marshall’s offense is wonderful, its execution was poor in 2019-20, ranking just 9th in C-USA in adjusted efficiency. Hopefully that inefficiency can be chocked up to youth and inexperience and improved upon in 2020-21.
There’s reason to believe Marshall’s offense returns to high potency next year with its three-headed backcourt monster of Taevion Kinsey, Jarrod West, and Andrew Taylor all returning. Kinsey, a 2nd Team All-C-USA selection last season, took a huge leap as a sophomore, ranking 2nd in the league in minutes played and 32nd in the nation. Kinsey is a long athlete who “glides” gracefully up and down the floor – scoring looks effortless at times for the 6’5” wing who excels at getting to the hole and drawing fouls. This year, expect Kinsey to continue is upward trajectory to star status and push for a 1st Team All-Conference spot.
Jarrod West and Andrew Taylor form the dual-PG look of Marshall’s attack. West was a 3rd Team All-C-USA and All-Defense selection last season; he consistently ranks among the leaders in the league in steal rate and is Marshall’s primary benefactor of ball screens in the halfcourt. When not handling the ball, West functions as a dangerous spot-up shooter – he’s shot 36.9% on a career 469 3PA during his three years at Marshall. Taylor, a C-USA All-Freshman team member last year, became eligible during the second semester following a transfer from Furman. His presence immediately improved the Herd, who went from being ranked 215th in KenPom on December 16th to finishing the year 147th. Taylor shares ball handling duties with West and, like West, is an excellent outside shooter when playing off the ball. He appears poised to take a major jump in his second collegiate season and promises to give the Herd three All-Conference selections.
Marshall doesn’t have a ton of depth in the backcourt, but it really doesn’t need much with Kinsey, Taylor, and West’s ability to play multiple spots. Freshman David Early could carve out a spot in the rotation with his shooting ability and size.
On the wing, D’Antoni will have a trusty cadre of options in Mikel Beyers, Darius George, and Marko Sarenac. All three players can play either the 3 or 4 and all three offer plenty of options on offense. Beyers started the first 7 games of the 2019-20 season and provides instant offense off the pine. Over the last 8 games last year, Beyers averaged 13.4 PPG. He can shoot from the outside and score inside the arc with his length. George, an 8-game starter last year, is an active rebounder and fierce defender. One of the most athletic players on the roster, George is a favorite target for lobs over the top of the defense. Sarenac’s biggest contribution is his outside shooting. Returner George Dillon will provide depth on the wing – he shouldn’t see much playing time this year.
In the frontcourt, Marshall will look to junior behemoth Iran Bennett and senior forward Jannson Williams for starting production. Bennett lost 50 pounds following his freshman season and was rewarded by becoming a regular starter and earning increased playing time. Still around 300 pounds, Bennett is an unstoppable force on the block on offense and an immovable object in the paint on defense. He’s a perfect complement to the more up-and-down, finesse style of player on the roster. Williams is a stretch-4 who also doubles as one of the league’s best shot blockers, ranking 2nd in block rate last season and 3rd in 2018-19. The pair will be backed up by 7-foot sophomore Goran Miladinovic and freshman Obinna Anochili-Killen. Milaninovic is excellent on the boards and operates almost exclusively around the block on offense. Anochili-Killen is a 3-star prospect with gobs of potential – he’s long, athletic, and even has some guard skills that could develop nicely over the next couple of seasons.
Oftentimes college basketball bloggers, pundits, and the like can become enamored with certain teams because of their enormous offensive potential. The danger of this, of course, is that defense matters just as much and sometimes more than the offensive end in college basketball. Luckily for my already-professed love, Marshall has the defensive fortitude to make it more than just a shiny offensive object of affection. Last season’s squad was D’Antoni’s best defensive team in his Marshall tenure, ranking 2nd in C-USA in adjusted efficiency. The Herd force turnovers, disallow the three and spot-up chances, and take away transition opportunities. They were great at forcing opposing teams to beat them off the bounce, a fact that led to them ranking 5th in Dribble Handoff’s shot quality defensive metrics. Marshall’s weaknesses on this end – rebounding and fouling – are things that can be improved upon naturally with experience.
Bottom Line: C-USA is tough at the top this year, but Marshall is every bit deserving of being dubbed a contender for the conference crown in 2020-21. The Herd return everyone from a surprisingly-good team last season, they have a proven coach in Dan D’Antoni, and now they have the experience to go with a roster brimming with talent.
Tier 3
5. Old Dominion
Key Returners: Malik Curry, Xavier Green, AJ Oliver II, Jason Wade, Kalu Ezikpe, Joe Reece, Jaylin Hunter
Key Losses: Aaron Carver
Key Newcomers: Austin Trice (Kansas State), David Strother (DII), Brady O’Connell, John Shanu II, Mekhi Long (Rhode Island)***
*** Mekhi Long is awaiting a waiver to become immediately eligible
Lineup:
Outlook: Monarch fans have become accustomed to a certain standard for their basketball program. Jeff Jones took over at ODU right as the school was transitioning from the CAA to C-USA and since then has led the Monarchs to an 83-41 (.669) conference mark and four 25+ win seasons. Last year, however, was a departure from that consistent, high standard. Old Dominion, coming off its first Tourney appearance since joining C-USA in 2013, lost its two best players and scorers in Ahmad Caver and BJ Stith, losses that turned out to be far more significant than expected. While ODU was able to claw its way to a 9-9 finish in league play, the Monarchs scored just one victory over a team that finished higher than them in the conference standings and endured an embarrassing loss at the hands of in-state rival James Madison in the non-con slate. With just one key player departing from last year’s squad, Jones should have his Monarchs back near the top of the C-USA standings in 2020-21 and competing to re-take the conference throne.
ODU’s reputation as a physical, no-nonsense, grind-it-out basketball program is well known on the national scale. Playing the Monarchs is anything but pleasant and watching ODU games isn’t for the crowd that thinks Virginia is ruining college basketball. Jones’s defenses consistently rank in KenPom’s top 50, though last year was somewhat of an anomaly at #92. ODU was the 7th best defensive rebounding team in the country last season – the Monarchs do not allow easy buckets in the paint and keep opponents away from the rim at all costs. This hyper-focus on the paint can lead to open outside looks, something that hurt ODU tremendously last season, whether due to luck or simply not getting enough pressure on shooters. Jones likes to mix in a morphing 1-2-2 zone that can mold into a 2-3 or 1-3-1 depending on where the ball is. In zone sets last year, ODU allowed 0.841 PPP (79th percentile nationally) versus 0.852 PPP while in man (47th percentile). Aaron Carver is a big loss to ODU’s paint defense and rebounding effort, but Jones has the track record of having elite defenses no matter his personnel. Expect the Monarchs to be back in the top 75ish among national defenses and in the top two or three of C-USA.
Much in the same way ODU can make opposing offenses look ugly, so too can its offense be extremely hard to watch. In four out of seven seasons at the helm, Jones’s offenses have ranked right around 250th in the country, per KenPom. The Monarchs run a lot of pick-n-roll and have some talented basket attackers on the roster, but unfortunately they don’t have the shooters to balance the floor. In 2019-20, ODU shot just 29.3% from deep, the 335th best mark in the nation. ODU’s offense has elements of mover/blocker in it, in that the bigs look to hunt opposing wings and guards in an effort to free perimeter teammates for open looks or penetration opportunities. Post play was very much ignored last year and ODU fell in love with tough mid-range jumpers, aiding in its offensive futility. It’s hard to see the offense taking a major leap in 2020-21, but the high continuity has to count for something and perhaps another year of college ball under ODU’s playmakers’ belts will improve overall efficiency.
Malik Curry and Xavier Green will once again be the Monarchs’ primary go-to options on offense, with wings AJ Oliver II and Jason Wade serving in supporting roles. Curry started every game last season at the point after coming over from the JUCO ranks where he was a 2nd Team All-American. As far as C-USA point guards go, Curry is as steady as they come from an assist-to-turnover and table-setting perspective – he’s a dynamic playmaker capable of scoring and facilitating offense at a high level, though shooting was an issue in 2019-20. Green has been a staple in the ODU starting five the past two seasons – he’s the best shooter on the squad (career 36% from deep) but tends to settle for a lot of mid-range action. Per Hoop-Math, 49.7% of Green’s total FGA came from the mid-range area; he made just 36.1% of those attempts and only 21.8% were assisted. Oliver II, a Clemson transfer, adds shooting and scoring in an off-ball role. Wade, who went down with a season-ending knee injury last January, plays a lot of small-ball 4 and adds rebounding, physicality, and defense in addition to double-digit scoring.
Jones will turn to juniors Kalu Ezkipe and Joe Reece to plug the massive hole left by Carver at the center spot. Ezkipe is the more natural 5-man of the pair; he led CUSA in OR% and ranked 4th in DR% last year. A menace in the paint on both ends, Ezkipe can protect the rim on defense and knock down free throws on offense, often a rarity for a big man in college basketball. Reece is a stretchy, long 4-man who does a bit of everything on both ends. Both bigs will see starting time in 2020-21. Jones also added Austin Trice to his roster late this offseason, a former Portland State and Kansas State contributor and NCJAA All-American. Trice is a MONSTER on the glass and fits the ODU “grit and grind” style to a tee.
The remaining returners, Jaylin Hunter and Alfis Pilavios, played sparingly in 2019-20. Hunter is a combo guard who will split time with incoming transfer David Strother as the primary backup PG option. Pilavios will provide wing depth.
Strother was the starting PG for a top 25 DII school; he should see plenty of playing time behind Curry and will provide a steady, veteran presence off the pine. 3-star wing Brady O’Connell, brother of Duke-turned-Creighton baller Alex O’Connell, could also play a major role in his first season in Norfolk. O’Connell is a rarity on this roster in that he can actually shoot – he’ll provide much needed floor spacing and also add another layer of athleticism to the lineup. Freshman John Shanu II, an athletic but unproven 6’9” forward, will compete for time up front.
Bottom Line: ODU should get back to its winning ways in 2020-21 and compete for a CUSA championship. Jones’s system is tried and true, and he has experience and continuity in spades this season.
6. UAB
Key Returners: Jalen Benjamin, Tavin Lovan, Tyreek Scott-Grayson, Kassim Nicholson
Key Losses: Will Butler, Makhtar Gueye, Tamell Pearson, Jordan Brinson, Antonio Ralat
Key Newcomers: Michael Ertel (UL Monroe), Quan Jackson (Georgia Southern), Trey Jemison (Clemson), Rongie Gordon, Simeon Kirkland (JUCO), Tony Toney, Terrell Ard Jr., Koby Jeffries (Redshirt), Tobias Rotegaard
Lineup:
Outlook: The big story this offseason for the UAB Blazers was the firing of head coach Rob Ehsan and hiring of former Ole Miss head honcho Andy Kennedy. Ehsan wasn’t necessarily bad during his 4-year tenure, never winning less than 9 games in C-USA nor more than 10, but he clearly wasn’t living up to the program’s preferred standards. The fact of the matter is, no coach really has since Mike Davis left. Under Davis and, previously, Mike Anderson, UAB made four NCAA Tournaments in ten years and finished in the KenPom top 75 eight of those seasons. Jerod Haase got the Blazers back to the Big Dance in 2015 after a three-year drought and then parlayed a C-USA regular season championship into a job at Stanford, but his teams were just as mediocre as Ehsan’s. Since Davis left, UAB hasn’t even finished in the KenPom top 100.
So, why Andy Kennedy? Well for starters, Kennedy is a UAB alum and the 2nd leading scorer in program history despite playing just three seasons. To boot, Kennedy was very successful (relative to program norms) at Ole Miss, a school he led for 12 seasons. At Ole Miss, Kennedy won 20+ games nine times and took the Rebels to two NCAA Tournaments – he’s arguably the most successful coach in Ole Miss history, but the powers that be decided to dump him for a former C-USA coach in Kermit Davis.
Kennedy’s squads have always played fast, which will be in stark contrast to the slower, more methodical Ehsan teams. This year’s UAB squad is LOADED with guards so expect to see plenty of small-ball lineups in Birmingham in 2020-21. While his teams generally hit the glass hard and look to shoot the three, Kennedy has always catered to his personnel over a particular style – he gives his players plenty of autonomy on the court. That strategy has worked for Kennedy in the past, as his Rebel squads were consistently among the nation’s best in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Defensively, Kennedy’s teams have never been outstanding – he plays a significant amount of zone (particularly 1-3-1) which can lead to open three-point opportunities. Ehsan was laser-focused on denying the rim, ranking 2nd last year in opponent FGA% near the rim, and Kennedy generally keeps to that style. The issue for the Blazers this year is their relative lack of size – Kennedy has usually had a shot blocker capable of bailing out his defense and that might be hard to find on this roster.
UAB’s strength this season will be its backcourt; you could even say the team should go by the “Backcourt Blazers” - ha. Sophomore point guard Jalen Benjamin likely starts at point after earning a spot on the C-USA All-Freshman squad a year ago. Benjamin has boundless potential and shot very well in league play after a shaky start. His biggest focus item this season will be ball protection, as he was prone to turnovers in his first year. 6’4” junior Tavin Lovan and 6’5” senior Tyreek Scott-Grayson will compete for starts on the wing. Lovan started every game as a sophomore and functions mostly as a defensive wing and slasher on the offensive end. Lovan’s strength is his, well, greatest strength – he’s tough to stop driving to the cup and ranked 3rd in the C-USA in FT rate last year. Scott-Grayson is a skinnier wing, a lefty shooter who enjoyed his fair share of scoring outbursts in 2019-20. Like Lovan, Scott-Grayson is a solid defender.
Kennedy made an odd choice this offseason to bring in two Sun Belt grad transfers in Micheal Ertel (UL Monroe) and Quan Jackson (Georgia Southern). Both players are outstanding, but considering UAB’s roster makeup (i.e. three returning backcourt starters), it’s strange to see Kennedy reel in even more guards to add to the pot. Lineups and rotations will be interesting to watch – will Kennedy play Lovan at small-ball 4? Or will he use the pair of Sun Belt studs as super subs off the pine? Both Ertel and Jackson were the best players on their respective teams last season, and both earned spots on the Sun Belt’s All-Conference 2nd Team. Ertel played the 2nd most minutes in the country last year and is known for his shooting and ability to score off ball screens. Jackson is a defensive menace who doubles as an aggressive dribble-drive weapon on offense. Regardless of rotations, UAB will have arguably the deepest backcourt in the league in 2020-21. Freshman Tony Toney (incredible name), an athletic guard with a big frame, and redshirt freshman Koby Jeffries likely don’t see too much time this season behind the bevy of experienced guards.
As alluded to earlier, Kennedy’s frontcourt is full of question marks heading into this season. Kassim Nicholson, a 6’7” senior, is the only returner up front; he’s a versatile forward who contributes mostly on the glass and defensive end. 3-star PF Rongie Gordon, JUCO transfer Simeon Kirkland, and freshmen Terrell Ard Jr. and Tobias Rotegaard will compete for frontcourt minutes alongside Nicholson. Gordon has some wing skills and brings athleticism to the fold; Kirkland, a big, long postman, is a borderline top 100 JUCO recruit from the #1 team in the nation last year (Florida Southwestern State); Ard is a strong forward with a bright future as a solid college contributor; Rotegaard is a sharp-shooting 3/4 tweener.
The kicker in the frontcourt will be Clemson transfer Trey Jemison, a Birmingham native who was granted a waiver to play immediately this offseason. Jemison is a 7-footer who played 30 games for the Tigers last season. He’ll add much-needed rebounding and shot blocking to the lineup and makes this roster much more complete.
Bottom Line: UAB will be an intriguing team to watch this season. Kennedy is a great coach with the ability to bring this program back to prominence. He has a talented core returning and two experienced, high-level players coming in via the transfer wire. The Blazers should be a fun team to watch offensively, but their defense may hold them back from truly competing near the top of the league in Kennedy’s first season.
7. Charlotte
Key Returners: Jordan Shepherd, Jahmir Young, Milos Supica, Luka Vasic, Brice Williams
Key Losses: Drew Edwards, Malik Martin, Cooper Robb, Amidou Bamba
Key Newcomers: Jhery Matos (Dayton), Jared Garcia, Caleb Stone-Carrawell (Redshirt), Caleb Byrd, Jackson Threadgill, Aly Khalifa, Marvin Cannon (Washington State)***
*** Marvin Cannon is awaiting a waiver to become immediately eligible
Lineup:
Outlook: Ron Sanchez enters his third year of his rebuild of the Charlotte basketball program fresh off a T-4th finish in C-USA and sporting a brand new logo. Shockingly, last year was the first winning C-USA season the 49ers have put together since joining the league seven years ago, and it was the first conference winning record period since Bobby Lutz’s squad in 2010 (A-10). That stat alone should be all the evidence anyone needs to show Sanchez has the program trending in the right direction – some may say he’s even ahead of schedule.
Oddly, Sanchez loses four players to the transfer wire, not something often seen at a school led by a coach seemingly liked by all. But, thankfully for Charlotte, the two best players off last season’s squad return in Jordan Shepherd and Jahmir Young. The pair forms one of the best backcourts in the league, each a 3rd Team All-Conference member last year. With those two in the fold and a tried-and-true system entering its third season, the Niners have a shot to compete in the upper tier of C-USA in 2020-21.
Let’s talk Sanchez’s system before getting into the player nitty-gritty. If you’re familiar at all with Tony Bennett’s style at Virginia, you’re familiar with how Sanchez does things at Charlotte. Sanchez was a Bennett assistant for 12 years and prior to that served three seasons under Tony’s dad, Dick Bennett. Offensively, Sanchez runs the mover-blocker, a style that assigns one or two players as “blockers” (aka guys who set a ton of screens) and three or four players as “movers” (aka guys who run off those screens). It’s a slow, methodical half-court style that focuses on getting high-quality shots. Per Dribble Handoff, Charlotte ranked 37th in the country last year in shot quality, a result of high percentage FGA near the rim. While the Niners didn’t shoot a ton of threes, they shot the long-ball well and had plenty of outside shooting weapons. With the departure of three of Charlotte’s best shooters in Drew Edwards, Cooper Robb, and Malik Martin, outside shooting might be more of a struggle in 2020-21, unless guys like Jhery Matos, Luka Vasic, Caleb Byrd, and Jackson Threadgill development into consistent bombers.
Defensively, Charlotte relies on Dick Bennett’s “pack-line” principles, which is summed up nicely here by the Charlotte Observer. This defense stays home and protects the paints, gets good close-outs on shooters, and tries to collapse on the offense when the ball moves inside the arc. The Niners ranked 5th in C-USA in defense last season, per KenPom, proving to be a good defensive rebounding squad who kept opponent 3P% in check despite the amount of 3PA allowed. Charlotte disallows transition opportunities, opting to send guys back on defense instead of crashing the offensive glass. As the pack-line is much more reliant on “system” and “practice” than the individual player, it’s very possible Charlotte improves defensively with another year under Sanchez. However, there are plenty of new faces coming to town and integrating everyone into the system can be challenging at first.
From a personnel standpoint, the Niners will be led by guards Jordan Shepherd and Jahmir Young. Shepherd came over from Oklahoma last season and thrived in a “lesser” league. He ranked 5th in C-USA in usage and 2nd in assist rate, handling most of the point guard duties with his 6’4” frame. Shepherd isn’t the best three-point shooter, but he’s capable of scoring from all three levels and is adept at driving off ball screens from the perimeter.
Young took home the C-USA Freshman of the Year award last season after ranking 2nd on the squad in scoring and first in rebounding despite standing just 6’1”. Though he’s capable of running the offense, Young is better off the ball where he shot 37.3% from deep last year and looks to beat defenders off catch-and-goes.
Look for Young to take the famous freshman-to-sophomore leap and compete for conference player of the year – he’s truly that talented to be listed among the best guards in mid-majordom.
Charlotte’s “center” spot will be locked down by senior Milos Supica, a solid big who turned in high rebounding rates and good finishing numbers in a rotational role last season. Supica leaves a lot to be desired from a rim protection angle, but the pack-line doesn’t necessarily require a massive shot blocker to be successful. He’ll be backed up by a pair of 6’10” forwards in sophomore Anzac Rissetto and freshman Aly Khalifa. Khalifa played for the U17 Egyptian national team and brings floor stretching potential and rebounding to the fold.
The third starting guard spot will likely be occupied by Dayton grad transfer Jhery Matos, a former NJCAA All-American and top 30 JUCO recruit. Matos didn’t see a ton of run for an electric Flyers squad but has potential to be one of Charlotte’s best players in 2020-21. If Washington State transfer Marvin Cannon receives a waiver to become immediately eligible, look for him to compete with Matos for primary wing minutes. Big guard Luka Vasic, a 6’8” gunner out of Serbia, could see minutes at the 3 or 4 and provide size and shooting on the perimeter.
Sanchez’s second starting forward spot is wide open heading into the year. If he doesn’t go with a small-ball lineup featuring Vasic at the 4, look for 3-star freshman Jared Garcia to get a crack at a starting job. Garcia is a high-level athlete and already possesses the strength needed to compete in the DI ranks. Per Charlotte’s team website, Sanchez believes, “he (Garcia) has a chance to be one of the top players in our league this year.” Garcia will compete with sophomore Brice Williams and redshirt freshman Caleb Stone-Carrawell for minutes at the 4. Williams can shoot and play multiple positions, while Stone-Carrawell (former Duke star Chris Carawell’s son) is a big wing who brings more athleticism to the table.
Two freshman, Caleb Byrd and Jackson Threadgill, round out Charlotte’s roster. Byrd is a 3-star PG who was a big-time scorer in HS. Threadgill is a borderline 3-star SG who comes in having a reputation as a pure shooter. Byrd could be the point guard of the future; Threadgill needs to put on more weight before he sees earns a consistent role.
Bottom Line: Good guard play and strong defense can take you a long way in college basketball, especially at the mid-major ranks. From a pure talent perspective, outside of Shepherd and Young, Charlotte may rank near the bottom of the league. However, Sanchez has started to build a program that is greater than the sum of its parts – he’ll have his Niners competing for another top four league finish, and teams will dread coming to Halton Arena where Charlotte was a blistering 13-2 (10-4-1 ATS) last season.
8. UTSA
Key Returners: Jhivvan Jackson, Keaton Wallace, Erik Czumbel, Luka Barisic, Jacob Germany, Adrian Rodriguez
Key Losses: Atem Bior, Byron Frohnen, Makani Whiteside
Key Newcomers: Jordan Ivy-Curry, Lachlan Bofinger, Eric Parrish (Nevada), Cedrick Alley Jr. (Houston)***
*** Cedrick Alley Jr. is awaiting a waiver to become immediately eligible
Lineup:
Outlook: If you look up “disappointment” in the dictionary you’ll find a picture of an orange and blue roadrunner. Big things were expected from UTSA in 2019-20 following two straight years of going 11-7 in conference play. Steve Henson’s squad returned nearly everyone from the program’s best team in the KenPom era, including wonder-guards Jhivvan Jackson and Keaton Wallace, and were picked to finish 2nd in C-USA. Alas, the Roadrunners never lived up to their hype, finishing just 7-11 in league play, good for 11th overall. Poor road performance (ironic for a team called the Roadrunners) was a heavy factor in UTSA’s ultimate demise. This year, UTSA brings back its two super studs and has plenty of firepower to be a top tier C-USA squad in 2020-21. If Henson can rediscover his defense after last year’s train wreck, the Roadrunners will be a very formidable conference foe.
Offense is not the issue for UTSA, which is an obvious statement when your team features two of the best scorers in the country. Jhivvan Jackson ranked 2nd nationally in PPG last year (to Markus Howard) and Keaton Wallace ranked 55th, making them the 2nd highest scoring tandem in the nation behind Hampton’s Jermaine Marrow and Ben Stanley. Henson plays super-fast, fully living up to the Roadrunner moniker. UTSA runs and guns, looking to score in transition and from behind the arc nearly every time down the floor. Now, UTSA may take a lot of threes but that doesn’t mean they’re not prone to poor shot selection – in fact, per Dribble Handoff, only five teams had a lower shot quality than the Roadrunners in 2019-20. Jackson and Wallace do everything off the dribble and score most of their buckets off ball screens or in isolation. Of Jackson’s 110 made 3PFG last season only 57% were assisted; of Wallace’s 80 3PFG only 50% were assisted. UTSA ranked 10th in the country in pick-n-roll usage, per Synergy, and should rank around that level once again this season.
Defense is very much the issue for UTSA, as the Roadrunners ranked 293rd in Adj. DE last year per KenPom. There was simply no resistance on this end – UTSA did not force turnovers, allowed ample open three-point tries, and acted as matadors to bull-like ball handlers driving the lane. No matter how good a team’s offense is, it cannot win without at least a competent defense. Considering Henson’s squads ranked 127th, 169th, and 163rd on this end the three seasons prior to last year, it’s possible last season was simply an outlier that could correct to the mean in 2020-21.
If we were to do TL;DR summary of UTSA, we would simply put: Jackson + Wallace = UTSA. These two guards are the heart and soul of the Roadrunners and miraculously have both opted to stay in San Antonio for four seasons in the midst of the “transfer epidemic”. Jackson was a 1st Team All-C-USA selection last season and will be on the short-list for POY this year. He was the 7th highest used player in the country in 2019-20 and only Markus Howard took a higher percentage of his team’s overall shots than Jackson. If Jackson were on a more visible program – say any team in a Power 6 conference – national media would be all over him. His quickness, size, and ability to pull from anywhere is reminiscent of Trae Young, and he puts up efficient shooting and ball handling numbers despite constantly having the rock in his hands. There aren’t many players in the country more exciting to watch on offense than Jackson – look for him to lead the nation in scoring in 2020-21.
Wallace, a 2nd Team All-C-USA selection last year, splits ball handling duties with Jackson. On most any other team, Wallace would be the undisputed alpha, but he appears comfortable in a secondary role in San Antonio. The 7th highest used player in C-USA last season, Wallace is a gunner from deep, using a smooth lefty stroke and dynamic off-the-bounce craftiness to put points on the board.
Everyone else on the roster will be on the lower usage end of the spectrum, though Nevada transfer Eric Parrish has an outside shot to etch his name on an All-Conference Team spot. Parrish began his career at Akron, starting 21 games as a freshman, then transferred to JUCO where he was ranked a national top five prospect. Last fall, Parrish enrolled at Nevada but never played before opting to transfer to UTSA at the end of the semester. Once eligible, Parrish will provide UTSA with a legit third scoring option and versatility with his ability to play the 3 or 4 and hold his own on the defensive end of the floor.
Sophomore guard Erik Czumbel, a starter of 21 games last season, will resume his role as spot-up shooter, a role he excelled in his freshman season, shooting 38.4% on 73 3PA. He could see starts at the “3”, but Parrish’s presence may limit those chances. Australian freshman Lachlan Bofinger, who spent some time at Montverde last year, appears to be a future asset as a two-way athletic wing. Freshman point guard Jordan Ivy-Curry has a shot to be the next Jhivvan Jackson with his ability to score in droves. As a high schooler in Houston, Ivy-Curry scored over 2,000 points during his career and has the same gunner mentality as Jackson & Wallace. Freshman shooting guard Jaja Sanni is a year or two away from contributing.
Up front, the center spot will be split by 6’10” senior Luka Barisic and 6’11” sophomore Jacob Germany. Barisic started for the Roadrunners last season until the end of January when Germany took over his starting role. A stretchy big man from Croatia, Barisic is a solid offensive player but offers little-to-nothing in the realm of rebounding or shot blocking. Germany, who is from Oklahoma, is a much better rebounder and shot blocker than Barisic – his long arms make him an intriguing prospect to see a large improvement this season and beyond.
Returners Adrian Rodriguez and Phoenix Ford will fight for minutes at the 4. Rodriguez is a big body at 6’7” 245 lbs. and contributes mostly as a garbage man who grabs rebounds makes hustle plays. Ford began his career at Richmond (redshirted) and played sparingly for the Roadrunners last year. Burly forward Cedrick Alley Jr., a Houston transfer would make a sizable impact on the frontcourt rotation if he’s granted a waiver to become immediately eligible.
Bottom Line: It’s easy to become enamored with UTSA’s potential offensive potency and expect the Roadrunners to be a top 4 C-USA team this season. Heck, that’s what just about everyone in the country did last year. But until Henson proves he has the defensive issues buttoned down I’m taking a more conservative approach to their outlook for 2020-21. UTSA’s ceiling this season is competing for a conference title – it’s floor is near the floor of the league.
9. UTEP
Key Returners: Bryson Williams, Souley Boum, Eric Vila, Efe Odigie, Tydus Verhoeven
Key Losses: Daryl Edwards, Jordan Lathon, Deon Stroud, Anthony Tarke, Nigel Hawkins, Kaden Archie
Key Newcomers: Jamal Bieniemy (Oklahoma), Keonte Kennedy (Xavier), Emmanuel White (JUCO), Adam Hess (JUCO), Vuk Vulikic, Ze’Rik Onyema, Christian Agnew (North Alabama)***, Kristian Sjolund (Georgia Tech)***
*** Christian Agnew and Kristian Sjolund are awaiting waivers to become immediately eligible
Lineup:
Outlook: UTEP took a major leap last season after head coach Rodney Terry brought in a slew of transfer talent, some of which followed him on his journey over from Fresno State. The Miners finished the 2018-19 season ranked 299th in KenPom with an 8-21 (3-15) record. Last year, UTEP finished the season ranked 188th in KenPom with a much more pleasing-to-the-eye mark of 17-15 (8-10). Even with the improvement, though, it’s fair to say UTEP underperformed – at least in conference play. In the non-con portion of their schedule, the Miners knocked off New Mexico State, New Mexico, UC Irvine, and Ball State, but in C-USA play UTEP defeated no team that finished over .500 in the league. With five transfers walking out the door this offseason, an event that Terry would explain as a chemistry improvement, it’s hard to see the Miners improving from their 2019-20 selves. Thankfully, Oklahoma transfer Jamal Bieniemy received a waiver to play right away, making UTEP’s situation far less dire.
When Jordan Lathon and Nigel Hawkins transferred this summer they took with them UTEP’s only prospective PG options for the coming season. Only incoming freshman Vuk Vulikic, a Serbian native who was recruited by Power 6 schools, is a natural point guard, which is never a great sign for a team looking to compete in any conference. Vulikic is skilled and has excellent size for a lead guard, but he’s young and unproven. Bieniemy’s recent waiver declaration is ENORMOUS - he gives UTEP a veteran presence, a guy who has played at the highest level of Division I basketball in the Big 12 for two years. Though he had a rough 2019-20, Bieniemy has proven to be capable of providing high-level shooting and steady ball handling. With Bieniemy, UTEP becomes a team that can knock on the door of the top 5 race in C-USA.
Nearly everything on offense will once again go through the steady hands of Bryson Williams, a 1st Team All-CUSA performer last season and one of the best players in the league heading into 2020-21. UTEP’s offense was dreadful last year, ranking 13th in C-USA per KenPom, a consequence of a high turnover rate, lack of rebounding, and poor outside shooting. The Miners play through Williams on the block and at the elbow where he’s nearly impossible for opposing defenses to stop with his large bag full of tricks. He’ll once again be one of the highest-used players in the conference and likely continues developing a promising outside shot to go with a deadly post game.
Williams’s right-hand-man on offense will be former San Francisco Don Souley Boum. Boum is a scorer and capable shooter, though his 3P% dipped from an efficient freshman season at USF. Boum may even see reps at the point, but he’s ultimately far better off the ball where he can use his off-the-bounce ability to get to the rack and convert charity stripe chances. On the other end of the floor, Boum is arguably UTEP’s best perimeter defender.
UTEP’s defense was good last season overall, ranking 89th nationally and 4th in C-USA per KenPom. The Miners are an all-man team who rebound well, limit transition, and take away spot-up opportunities. To beat UTEP on this end, you have to be able to put the ball on the floor and win in isolation situations. It’s hard to project how well a team will fare defensively with so much roster turnover but Terry has historically had good defenses during his 9-year coaching tenure.
One area in which UTEP should be rock solid on both ends of the floor will be in the frontcourt where Terry has ample depth at the 4 and 5 spots. In addition to Williams, the Miners bring back Eric Vila, Efe Odigie, and Tydus Verhoeven, all of whom started multiple games last season. Vila has bounced around at a few schools after starting his career at Texas A&M. He can be a very good defensive rebounder, a solid frontcourt passer, and, theoretically, a floor spacer. Odigie has battled injuries the past two seasons; he’s an active rebounder who also has started experimenting with his three-point shot. A post presence on offense, Ogidie followed up a very promising rookie year in which he made the C-USA All-Freshman squad with a dud of a sophomore season. He’ll look to get back on track in 2020-21. Verhoeven, a former Duquesne Duke, is most valuable for his shot blocking ability; in 2017-18, Verhoeven ranked 9th in the entire country in block rate as a freshman. All three bigs will compete for starts at the 5 alongside Williams while 6’8” freshman Ze’Rik Onyema likely either redshirts or rides the pine in his first season in El Paso.
Competing for minutes on the wing alongside Boum will be Xavier transfer Keonte Kennedy, JUCO transfers Emmanuel White and Adam Hess, and walk-on Gilles Dekoninck. Kennedy is the main guy to watch, a player who UTEP is counting on to provide production from day one of the season. A former 4-star recruit coming out of high school, Kennedy didn’t get much of a chance at Xavier. At UTEP, he should add much-needed shooting and scoring. White and Hess should both provide shooting – White knocked down 35.7% of his three-point tries and averaged 13.3 PPG last year in the JUCO ranks while Hess converted 41.6% of his long-ball attempts at Salt Lake CC. Dekoninck is a walk-on who redshirted last season – in 2018-19 he saw action in 20 games in a reserve role.
Bottom Line: UTEP’s season trajectory could change drastically if Bieniemy’s fellow transfers Christian Agnew (North Alabama) and Kristian Sjolund (Georgia Tech) receive waivers. If they do, this is a potential C-USA contender. I’m operating on the assumption Agnew and Sjolund will not receive a waiver, which means we’re looking at a UTEP squad that has a couple shiny pieces and a whole lot of question marks.
Tier 4
10. FIU
Key Returners: Antonio Daye Jr., Isaiah Banks, Eric Lovett, Tevin Brewer, Cameron Corcoran, Dimon Carrigan
Key Losses: Devon Andrews, Osasumwen Osaghae, Trejon Jacob, Blake Furcron
Key Newcomers: Radshad Davis (UT Arlington), Sedee Keita (St. John’s)**, Javaunte Hawkins (JUCO), DJ Mitchell (JUCO), Petar Krivokapic, Anthony Mason (JUCO)
** Sedee Keita is not on the FIU roster page as of 10/9/2020
Lineup:
Outlook: Prior to diving into this preview, let’s all dive into the ocean of this court:
Is this the ugliest court in the country? Or is this the best court in the country? Both can be right!
Now that we’ve called attention to the artwork gracing the FIU Panther floor, we can talk about the FIU basketball program, a program that has made one NCAA Tournament in its 33-year DI history. Head coach Jeremy Ballard, one of the youngest head honchos in the nation at just 39, enters his third year at the helm already arguably the best coach in school history. Ballard has exceeded expectations in each of his first two seasons, leading the Panthers to two straight 19+ win seasons, the first in program history since 1998. FIU was a feisty and oft ignored C-USA squad last season, finishing 5th in the league per KenPom’s rankings and T-6th in the overall standings. The Panthers return a solid core with which to make another run to the upper-half of the league ranks but lose Defensive Player of the Year Osasumwen Osaghae, leading scorer Devon Andrews, and key contributor Trejon Jacob.
Ballard tapped the breaks on FIU’s rabid pace last season. His Panthers *only* finished 30th in the country in tempo and 10th in offensive average possession length (APL). In 2018-19, FIU led the nation in tempo and offensive APL, looking to score in the open floor any and every opportunity it came across. When not sprinting down the floor, FIU is a spread pick-n-roll squad which relies on its dynamic guards to create off the bounce and spot-up shooters to knock down open shots. Ballard succeeded in every good coach’s goal last season – his team put up high-quality shots from near the rim and behind the three-point line.
FIU ranked 2nd nationally in FGA in transition 0-10 seconds following a steal last year – its defense often created its offense. The Panthers pressed at the 14th highest rate in the country last season and ranked in the top 50 in turnover rate. While leaking out for potential transition opportunities on the other end and over-playing passing lanes led to the Panthers getting crushed near the rim and on the defensive glass, the FIU defense was good enough to hold its own in the C-USA. Without paint anchor Osaghae, however, FIU no longer has a guy who can bail out their aggressive style of play.
Center duties will fall on the shoulders of senior Dimon Carrigan and St. John’s transfer Sedee Keita. Carrigan posted a block rate nearly as high as Osaghae’s in far less minutes in 2019-20, suggesting he could serve as a decent rim protector this year. With his extremely long arms and good mobility, Carrigan makes a great roll partner and lob target to ball handlers jetting off screens. Keita was (somehow) a top 100 recruit coming out of high school back in 2016 but has so far done nothing at his two collegiate stops, South Carolina and St. John’s. At the bare minimum Keita should add rebounding and shot blocking to an FIU squad in desperate need of both – and there’s no reason he can’t be at least somewhat productive as a post threat and roll-man in the Panther offensive attack.
The rest of the FIU roster is made up of guards and hybrid wings (except recent JUCO transfer Anthony Mason). 6’5” senior Eric Lovett could see the lion’s share of minutes at the 4 despite being more of a wing in nature. Lovett is one of the more dangerous shooters on the roster, knocking down 35.4% of his three-point tries last season. UTA grad transfer Radshad Davis could also see time at the “4” despite standing just 6’2” (listed at 6’4” on the FIU roster - this is up for debate!). Davis is a fantastic rebounder for his size, ranking in the top ten of both OR% and DR% in the Sun Belt last season. The former Maverick has the strength to shrug off defenders off drives and hold his own in the post against bigger forwards. 6’6” sophomore Dante Wilcox will provide depth at the 4 and wing spots.
Ballard could use a dual-PG look this year in his backcourt with the return of senior Tevin Brewer and junior Antonio Daye, Jr. Brewer started the first 10 games of the season last year before succumbing to injury. He earned a spot on the NCJAA All-American 3rd Team the year prior. With Brewer on the ball, Daye would be able to shift to a more natural 2-spot where his lightning quickness can be better used as a weapon attacking from the perimeter and his turnover issues can be put in check. Neither Brewer nor Daye is a great outside shooter, but the tandem would form one of the harder to stop transition duos in the conference. Daye in particular is fantastic in the open floor, able to get from baseline to baseline in approximately how long it takes light to travel through space.
On the wings, look for 6’5” senior Isaiah Banks, 6’1” junior Cameron Corcoran, JUCO transfers Javaunte Hawkins and DJ Mitchell, and freshman Petar Krivokapic to compete for starting duties and first dibs at minutes off the pine. Banks is a low-usage wing who contributes more as a defender than anything else. He’s capable of putting up numbers like he did against WKU, scoring 17 PTS on 6/10 shooting in 23 minutes. But he’s also liable to follow that up with a dud-effort, like his Rice outing four days later when he went for 0 PTS on 0/2 shooting in 28 minutes. Corcoran, formerly of Arkansas Little Rock, is a spot-up shooter who’s cashed 38.5% of his 208 career 3PA. Hawkins will add ball handling and shooting from the JUCO ranks. Mitchell is an honorable mention top 100 JUCO recruit who averaged 14.3 PPG and shot 35% on a high volume of threes the past two seasons. Krivokapic is a strong guard who also can aid in the shooting and ball handling departments.
Bottom Line: FIU has plenty of speed and guard depth with which to stay competitive in C-USA. Ballard has also begun building a nice program down in Miami and all signs point to that continuing in the near future. The Panthers’ lack of size and loss of a defensive stalwart in Osaghae are concerning, as defense and rebounding may prove to be their downfall in 2020-21.
11. Middle Tennessee
Key Returners: Donovan Sims, Jayce Johnson, Tyson Jackson, Jo’Vontae Millner-Criss, Eli Lawrence, Tyler Millin
Key Losses: CJ Jones, Antonio Green, Reggie Scurry
Key Newcomers: Jordan Davis (Dayton), DeAndre Dishman (Eastern Kentucky / Redshirt), Dontrell Shuler (Charleston Southern), Elias King (Mississippi State), Jalen Jordan (St. Francis NY), Jared Coleman-Jones***
*** Jared Coleman-Jones is awaiting a waiver to become immediately eligible
Lineup:
Outlook: Middle Tennessee won just five games against Division I competition last season, and three of those wins came against the mighty, mighty Golden Eagles of Southern Miss. To say 2019-20 was a disappointment for head coach Nicholas McDevitt and Co. would be a massive understatement. The Blue Raiders were picked to finish 8th in C-USA and ranked 167th in the preseason, per KenPom. MTSU finished the year in dead last of the 14-team conference and a lowly 295th in KenPom’s rankings.
McDevitt loses three starters from last year’s squad but brings in a significant amount of talent from the transfer wire. Five DI transfers are set to take the floor for the Blue Raiders this season, six if Northwestern’s Jared Coleman-Jones is granted an immediate eligibility waiver. With the influx of talent plus the return of six regular contributors from 2019-20, MTSU could be a factor in the middle of C-USA this season.
Neither side of the ball offered much hope last season. MTSU ranked 11th in the league in offense and 13th in defense, unable to score enough points and prevent opponents from scoring too many to keep its season afloat. McDevitt molds his offensive style to his team’s strengths and last year that meant plenty of long-ball attempts. MTSU earned most of its points from behind the arc, ranking 3rd in C-USA in 3PA rate. The offensive glass was also a source of scoring for the Blue Raiders, though shot attempts near the rim were generally few and far between. CJ Jones, MTSU’s leading scorer from ’19-20, is gone, as is second leading scorer Antonio Green. McDevitt will need incoming transfers like Charleston Southern’s Dontrell Shuler, Dayton’s Jordan Davis, and St. Francis (NY)’s Jalen Jordan to shoulder the scoring load.
Defensively, McDevitt likes to run an extended 1-3-1 zone that can fall back into man once the ball reaches a certain level of the floor. This tricky defense often led to steals last season but was also highly susceptible to paint scores. Opposing teams destroyed the Blue Raiders near the rim last year and earned trips to the FT line at a very high rate. And, while MTSU was excellent at limiting three-point attempts, opposing teams shot a scorching 38.1% against the Blue Raiders last year (9th highest clip in the country). The defensive end should improve this season, but it’s still highly likely MTSU ranks as one of the bottom four or five defensive squads in Conference USA.
As stated above, scoring will need to come from the trio of transfers joining the Blue Raider backcourt in 2020-21. Jordan Davis started nearly every game for the Dayton Flyers in 2018-19, proving to be a steady source of offensive production from the wing. He’s a career 35.9% three-point shooter on 306 attempts and is athletic enough to score consistently off the bounce. Davis also figures to be one of, if not the, best defenders on the MTSU perimeter this season. Dontrell Shuler led Chuck South in scoring through 15 games last year before taking his talents to Murfreesboro. Shuler is a dynamic combo guard who can run point and who likes to score off the dribble. He’s excellent out of the pick-n-roll, an action McDevitt will run frequently this season, and attacks the basket hard from the perimeter. Jalen Jordan was one of St. Francis (NY)’s best scorers two years ago and has converted a sizzling 40.9% of his 342 career three-point attempts. He’ll be valuable as a spot-up shooter in the starting five or instance offense off the pine.
Returning senior Donovan Sims will resume point guard duties this season after being the primary ball handler for the Blue Raiders the past two years. Sims shoots it well from the outside and has had respectable assist rates, but turnovers have often been a source of frustration. He’ll need to keep those in check to remain MTSU’s first option on the ball. Defensively, Sims ranked 2nd in the C-USA in steal rate, though he rated as a “below average” defender per Synergy last season.
Sophomore wing Eli Lawrence and Miss State transfer Elias King will also be in the mix for playing time in the backcourt. Lawrence, a long 2-guard, turned in a productive freshman year and contributes mostly as an outside shooting threat. King was a 4-star prospect coming to Starkville last season but saw action in just six games at Miss State. He’s super long and athletic, and can shoot the ball when needed. His size will be a factor on both ends of the floor and should earn him a key role in the rotation. North Florida transfer Brian Coffey II will provide depth in the backcourt – he’s another combo guard who can shoot but, like Sims, has struggled with turnovers during his career.
MTSU’s starting 4-spot will come down to a competition between EKU transfer DeAndre Dishman and junior Jayce Johnson. Dishman appeared poised to start for the Blue Raiders last year before going down with an ACL tear prior to the start of the season. He is an active rebounder who ranked 4th in the OVC in FT rate back in 2017-18. At the very least, Dishman will have an impact on the glass and the defensive end. Johnson started 23 games for the Blue Raiders last season – he’s an athletic slasher who can play the 3 or 4, rebound, and handle the ball.
At the 5, sophomore Tyson Jackson looks to improve upon an All-Freshman season. Jackson is a beast on the glass and a decent shot blocker – his next step will be developing his promising post game.
Senior Jo’Vontae Millner-Criss and sophomore Tyler Millin will provide depth at the 4-spot. Both players can stretch the floor and Millner was one of the best rebounders on the roster by rate last season. Freshman forward Christian Fussell and JUCO walk-on Marcus Mitchell round out the frontcourt rotation.
Bottom Line: MTSU appears set for a massive improvement from a dreadful 2019-20 season. McDevitt has proven his coaching chops by building a Big South power at UNC Asheville and now looks to reverse the course on two tough years in Conference USA. The Blue Raiders are deep this season and have plenty of talent to be potent offensively and respectable defensively. Add them to the list of competitive squads residing in C-USA this year.
12. Southern Miss
Key Returners: LaDavius Draine, Tyler Stevenson, Jay Malone, Artur Konontsuk
Key Losses: Gabe Watson, Leonard Harper-Baker, Boban Jacdonmi, Auston Leslie
Key Newcomers: Tae Hardy (JUCO), Denijay Harris (JUCO / Redshirt), Justin Johnson (JUCO), De’Andre Pinckney (JUCO), Jeffery Armstrong (Redshirt), Jaron Pierre, Mark Jaakson, Javarzia Belton, Tyler Morman (Wyoming)***
*** Tyler Morman is awaiting a waiver to become immediately eligible
Lineup:
Outlook: It was a tough first season in Hattiesburg for Jay Ladner following on the heels of Doc Sadler’s best performance at USM during his 5-year tenure. The 2019-20 Golden Eagles were a young team following the departure of five seniors from the year prior and finished with a mere six wins against DI competition. Ladner built the Southeastern Louisiana basketball program up from shambles and now looks to bring his alma mater back to glory. With three top 40 JUCO recruits to go along with a solid core of returners, USM appears to be heading in the right direction and capable of outperforming last year’s 13th place C-USA finish.
Offense in general was a disaster for the Eagles last season, who finished dead last in C-USA in offensive efficiency and 313th nationally per KenPom. Part of the reason USM was so dreadful was shot selection – the Eagles led the country in percentage of shots taken from the mid-range area and only one team had a lower percentage of shots attempted near the rim (both numbers per Hoop-Math). Ladner’s attack involved a lot of cuts through the lane and playing through the frontcourt via high-low or post-ups. Outside shooting was ignored for the most part, and when USM did take threes it hit them at a sub-30% clip. Gabe Watson, last year’s leading scorer, opted to take his talents to Tulane so the Eagles must turn to the JUCO ranks for offensive assistance.
Tae Hardy, the 37th ranked JUCO prospect in the nation, should be one of the Eagles’ leading scorers in 2020-21. Hardy began his career at East Carolina where he started 9 games before transferring to the JUCO ranks. At Pearl River CC, Hardy led the Wildcats to a perfect 28-0 record before the season was canceled due to COVID-19. Hardy averaged 16.6 PPG and earned a spot on the NJCAA All-American 1st Team as a result. At USM, Hardy can either start at point and create offense off the bounce or play alongside presumed starting PG Jay Malone and be a knockdown shooter from the wing.
Malone missed the second semester last season due to being academically ineligible. Prior to that, the 6’0” guard enjoyed his best game of his short DI career when he put up 27 PTS, 4 REB, and 7 AST against Rice in mid-January. In 2020-21, Malone will need to improve his shooting efficiency and crack down on a turnover problem that resulted in an ugly 27.2% TO rate.
Lining up next to Malone and Hardy in the backcourt will be senior wing LaDavius Draine, a jack-of-all-trades type of player whose best weapon is his deadly outside shot (I do hope people call him “Draine-O”). Draine’s shooting numbers tanked last season with an increase in minutes and usage, but he’ll still be one of the biggest 3P threats on the USM roster in 2020-21. Sophomore wing Angel Smith could see more time in the backcourt rotation after playing just 4 games in 2019-20. Freshmen Jeffery Armstrong, Jaron Pierre, and Mark Jaakson will also look to earn cracks at the rotation. Pierre is the one to watch of this bunch; he’s a certified three-point bomber who put up numbers in HS.
Ladner has dipped into the JUCO ranks the past two seasons to sure up his roster. Along with Hardy, Justin Johnson, De’Andre Pinckney, and Denijay Harris all promise to have major impacts on this year’s squad. Johnson is rated as the 13th best JUCO recruit in the country; he’s a long 6’7” guard who can handle it and be a menace defensively with his ability to matchup 1 through 3. Pinckney is the 16th best recruit from JUCO nation, a 6’8” forward who can shoot it and who will compete with sophomore Artur Konontsuk for starting honors. Harris is an incredibly long 6’7” wing with a 6’11” wingspan, an athlete who, like Johnson, can play multiple spots on the floor.
Konontsuk can stretch the floor from the frontcourt and started 18 games last year for USM as a freshman. He’ll be the leading candidate heading into the season to line up alongside junior Tyler Stevenson, a walk-on who developed into arguably USM’s most valuable player last year. Stevenson is very athletic and very active on the basketball court, a player who every coach would like to have on his team. Backing up the pair of forwards will be 6’10” freshman center Javarzia Belton, a behemoth of a prospect who is ridiculously big and strong. His offensive game is limited to “catch-and-dunk” right now, and he’ll need to improve his quickness to be effective at the DI level.
Defensively, USM mirrored its offense in that nothing went near the rim. The Eagles allowed the 3rd lowest percentage of shots near the rim in the country per Hoop-Math in 2019-20. Teams tended to tee off from distance against the Eagles, who rarely forced turnovers despite throwing in a fair amount of token fullcourt pressure. Ladner has a more versatile and athletic team than he did in 2019-20, so perhaps the defensive end improves this season.
Bottom Line: Projecting JUCO players’ impacts on DI teams is a bit of a crapshoot. On paper, Ladner brings in three of the very best JUCO players in the country this season to pair with a sharpshooting returning wing and talented big man. On paper, that sounds pretty good. On paper, you could say USM looks better than, say, FAU, but there’s more to the game of basketball than names on paper. Ladner won consistently at SLU his final couple years there and has experience meshing new faces into a cohesive unit. Next year might not be the year USM starts competing in the upper-half of C-USA, but the Eagles are well on their way to that point.
13. Florida Atlantic
Key Returners: Jailyn Ingram, Michael Forrest, Karlis Silins, Everett Winchester, Kenan Blackshear, Madiaw Niang
Key Losses: Cornelius Taylor, Richardson Maitre, Aleksander Zecevic, Jaylen Sebree, DJ Robertson
Key Newcomers: Nicholas Boyd, Alijah Martin, Johnell Davis, Giancarlo Rosado, BJ Greenlee (Minnesota)***
*** BJ Greenlee is awaiting a waiver to become immediately eligible
Lineup:
Outlook: Dusty May has made FAU far better than it has any right to be over the past two seasons. In 2018-19, the Owls returned just 15.3% of their minutes from the year prior and were ranked 301st in the preseason, per KenPom. May took that group of newbies and led his Owls to a 162nd KenPom finish and a CIT berth. Last season wasn’t anything to write home about, but May still had FAU competing in the middle of a tough C-USA. This program has been horrible historically – FAU is 297-507 (.369) since joining DI in 1993 – so the fact May has brought it to this point is impressive. The past two seasons have been FAU’s best in C-USA, and May’s two-straight overall winning seasons are the first at the program since 2011. Considerable production walks out the door from 2019-20, but you’d be a fool to assume May won’t lead a team that’s better than the sum of its individual parts.
Ball handling and shooting are going to be the key issues plaguing the Owls in 2020-21. With the departures of Cornelius Taylor and Richardson Maitre, FAU lost its two primary ball handlers and two of its most prolific outside shooters. Point guard duties likely fall on Michael Forrest’s shoulders, a 6’0” junior who played more off the ball last season than his freshman year. Forrest is a knockdown outside shooter, hitting 38.5% of his 3PA last year, so to take him out of a spot-up role may cause more harm than good for May’s Owls. However, May’s only other option are two freshmen. Nicholas Boyd, a skinny lefty with some shooting chops and ball skills, may be cast into the fire from day one, which could be good for his overall growth but tough to watch in his first season. Fellow freshman Johnell “Nelly” Davis is a smooth CG who can also handle the ball and perhaps develop into a reliable contributor down the road. Former Minnesota guard BJ Greenlee, a 3-star prospect in the class of 2019, would be a huge addition if granted a waiver - he could come in and run the point, shifting Forrest off the ball.
Outside of Forrest, this roster’s shooting is bleak, especially in the backcourt. Returning wings Kenan Blackshear and Everett Winchester could start next to each other on the perimeter, which would form an intimidating defensive shell but be a disaster from an offensive spacing standpoint. Winchester is the better scorer of the two, a guy who may be due for a leap after missing the second half of last season. Sophomore wing Carrington McCaskill played just five games last year and may not yet be ready for primetime. Freshman wing Alijah Martin is a strong promising scorer who could fight his way into a regular rotation spot.
Perhaps the two best shooters on the squad outside of Forrest reside in the frontcourt. Redshirt senior Jailyn Ingram is FAU’s best returning player, a high usage forward who can score on the block or operate on the perimeter. He’ll be counted on to shoulder more of the scoring load sans Taylor. 6’11” Latvian Karlis Silins is a stretchy 5-man who shot 41.7% from deep on limited attempts. He’s a solid presence on the offensive boards and fared well defending post-ups last season. Junior forward Madiaw Niang will provide rebounding and shot blocking off the pine, while sophomore Dardan Kapiti will look to carve out an increased role after barely seeing the floor in 2019-20. Oddly, Kapiti had a two-game stretch last season in which he averaged 13 MPG, 9 PPG and was 9/9 from the floor prior to being buried the rest of the year. Freshman forward Giancarlo Rosado will round out May’s frontcourt rotation.
That’s everybody. This roster lacks talent, it lacks shooting, and it lacks ball handling. Dusty May has his work cut out for him in 2020-21.
Offensively, FAU was the 2nd fastest team in C-USA last year, a trend that could continue considering the lack of halfcourt offensive ability on the squad. Expect the Owls to be a slash-first, basket attack team on the offensive end with Ingram being the focal point.
Defensively, FAU held opponents to the longest average possession in league play in 2019-20. May throws in some zone and token pressure and his squads focus on keeping opponents away from the rim. Like its offense, FAU’s defense was simply average last season.
Bottom Line: I’m not excited about this team’s prospects in 2020-21. In fact, if any other person was coaching the Owls, FAU would be projected to flirt with the C-USA basement. Even with May, a coach who is a shoo-in to be wooed away by a better gig in the near future, the Owls have their work cut out for them in 2020-21.
Tier 5
14. Rice
Key Returners: Chris Mullins, Payton Moore, Quincy Olivari, Max Fiedler
Key Losses: Drew Peterson, Trey Murphy, Robert Martin, Ako Adams, Josh Parrish, Zach Crisler
Key Newcomers: Malik Ondigo (Texas Tech), Tre Clark (Furman), Cavit Ege Havsa (Utah Valley), Jake Lieppert (JUCO), Noah Hutchins, Cameron Sheffield, Mylyjael Poteat, Riley Abercrombie (Boise State)***, Travis Evee (VMI)***
*** Riley Abercrombie and Travis Evee are awaiting waivers to become immediately eligible
Lineup:
Outlook: Scott Pera enjoyed his most successful season at the helm of Rice in 2019-20, finishing in the top 200 of KenPom for the first time since taking over for Mike Rhoades in 2017. The Owls seemed poised to have a rock-solid team this year but offseason transfers of three key pieces suggests this squad is headed for the bottom of the barrel of a competitive C-USA.
Few teams in the country relied on the three-ball as much as the Rice Owls did last season. Rice ranked 3rd nationally in 3PA rate and 10th in percentage of points scored from beyond the arc. A whopping 50.7% of all the Owls’ shots in 2019-20 came from the land of plenty, leading to good results such as a 9-point victory at home over league champ North Texas, and poor results like a 13-point walloping to conference doormat Southern Miss. When not launching from deep, Pera wants his team to run in the open floor and look to score in transition, particularly off opponent scores where the Owls ranked 13th nationally last year in FGA 0-10s following an opponent bucket (per Hoop-Math). Overall, Rice was a good offensive team last season, ranking 4th in C-USA in efficiency, but the loss of Drew Peterson, Trey Murphy, Robert Martin, and Ako Adams makes it difficult to believe the Owls can repeat that level of competency in 2020-21.
On the other side of the ball, Rice was the worst defensive team in C-USA in 2019-20 and ranked 301st nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom. Pera has approached defense in interesting ways during his three-year tenure: three years ago he played almost exclusively zone; two years ago he played almost exclusively man-to-man; and last year he played about a 60/40 split man/zone. Rice played zone at the 22nd highest rate last year, a matchup variety that at times looked like a 1-2-2 and other times a standard 2-3. Regardless of what Pera has tried over the past threes, it hasn’t worked – Rice has been a consistently atrocious defensive team under his lead.
Floor leadership and scoring are two major questions heading into this season. Pera’s four returners were all role players last year who deferred to others to make plays offensively. Chris Mullins is a good candidate to take over the PG reins and possibly even the “alpha” role on offense. Unlike most of his teammates last season, Mullins was much more drive-oriented than spot-up; he looks to score his points off the bounce instead of from behind the arc. Sophomore combo guard Quincy Olivari led the team in 3P% as a freshman, knocking down 38.8% of his 3P tries last season. Olivari likely has a spot in the starting five though JUCO transfer Jake Lieppert, a 3rd Team NJCAA DII All-American and the leader in 3PM at his collegiate level last season, will be hot on his heels for minutes. Lieppert converted 41.7% of his 3PA last season and also has a healthy dose of athleticism to blow by off-balanced defenders on close-outs.
On the wing, look for 6’4” junior Payton Moore, Furman transfer Tre Clark, and freshman Cameron Sheffield to battle for playing time. Moore is a high-level athlete but wasn’t terribly efficient last season. Clark can play small-ball 4 and proved to be an excellent rebounder and defensive presence for the Paladins in a key role off the pine last year. Sheffield is a borderline 3-star prospect with a good-looking outside shot and two-way potential.
If Mullins doesn’t assume primary PG duties, one of either Utah Valley transfer Cavit Ege Havsa or freshman Noah Hutchins will. Havsa began his career at Fordham where he started 10 games prior to transferring to UVU. He can shoot and handle the ball but has tended to be a “walking turnover” through three collegiate seasons. Hutchins is a 3-star PG out of IMG Academy, a quick, dynamic, and bouncy floor general who could go on to have an illustrious collegiate career when given the chance.
At the 5-spot, look for sophomore big man Max Fiedler, a true post who battles on the glass, to see the bulk of the minutes. He posted a decent block rate as a freshman and should see ample opportunity with Trey Murphy and Robert Martin out of the picture. Texas Tech transfer Malik Ondigo, another back-to-the-basket big man, will also see some run and provide rebounding and shot blocking. Freshman PF Mylyjael Poteat, a hefty forward with good touch and hands, will provide depth in the frontcourt.
Bottom Line: Rice’s offense may look very different than last season with its current roster makeup. Pera often had four or five guys on the floor who could shoot the ball and that just won’t be possible in 2020-21. While the Owls still have a couple dangerous marksmen on the wings, their outside shooting frequency and conversion rate will likely take a dip this season. Getting VMI transfer Travis Evee eligible would help tremendously in this effort, but that appears unlikely at this point. A thin frontcourt could also benefit from a Riley Abercrombie (Boise State) waiver, but again that doesn’t seem likely.
With the C-USA looking very competitive top-to-bottom, Rice seems destined to fall to the cellar in Pera’s 4th head coaching season.