- Ky McKeon
Key Returners: Marcus Zegarowski, Mitchell Ballock, Damien Jefferson, Denzel Mahoney, Christian Bishop, Jacob Epperson, Shereef Mitchell
Key Losses: Ty-Shon Alexander, Davion Mintz, Kelvin Jones
Key Newcomers: Antwann Jones (Memphis), Ryan Kalkbrenner, Modestas Kancleris, Rati Andronikashvili
Lineup:
Outlook: Like the Daytons and San Diego States of the world, Creighton fans will always wonder what might’ve been had the 2019-20 season not been cancelled in March. The Jays were set to enter postseason play fresh off their first ever share of the Big East title and arguably their best season in program history. Featuring an electric offense with shooters galore, Creighton was one of the most enjoyable teams to watch last season, and we as fans were robbed of seeing them make a run in the NCAA Tournament.
The 2020-21 version of the Jays will be similar to last year’s great squad with one giant exception: no Ty-Shon Alexander. The junior guard opted to turn pro after leading the Jays in scoring and earning a spot on the Big East’s All-Conference First Team. One look at the Hoop Lens on/off numbers paints the picture of just how much Ty-Shon mattered:
Info per Hoop Lens
The good news for Creighton fans is Alexander played nearly every minute of every game, so that sample size of “off” minutes includes a lot of garbage time. Additionally, with significant firepower returning, the Jays’ offense should still be one of the most potent in the country. The bad news is Alexander’s departure will almost certainly wreak havoc on the defensive end. Alexander was far and away the best defender on the roster, lifting an otherwise pedestrian defensive squad to the 5th best ranking in the Big East, per KenPom. This leads into the most important question facing the Jays this season: who will replace Ty-Shon Alexander?
Greg McDermott has several options with which to plug the empty wing spot in the starting five. One option is Denzel Mahoney, the former SEMO Redhawk who turned in a solid first year in Omaha in 2019-20. Mahoney is a feast or famine gunner, a guy that can score 20+ on any given night but also one that can take too much control of an offense. He led Creighton in usage last season and ranked 6th in the Big East, not exactly the most ideal scenario with the other talent on the roster. Mahoney’s size allows him to play the 3 or 4, the latter of which he’ll play quite often, but despite his stature he isn’t a great defender. In fact, in small-ball lineups with Mahoney and Damien Jefferson at the 4 and 5, Creighton allowed a ghastly 1.16 PPP. Given his defensive liabilities and penchant for gunning, Mahoney seems perfect to resume his role as “instant offense” off the bench.
Should Mahoney resume his 6th man role, the next obvious choice is Memphis transfer Antwann Jones, a former top 100 recruit in the class of 2018. Jones started six games as a freshman for the Tigers but never found his comfort zone on the floor. He brings a little bit of everything to both ends of the floor with his length and athleticism, and at the very least can help make up for the defensive hole left by Alexander. Lithuanian freshman Modestas Kancleris could also steal some time at the wing with his decent athleticism and offensive skill, but it’s hard to say how much he actually contributes in his first season.
The remainder of Creighton’s rotation feels more certain, especially the point guard spot where Marcus Zegarowski looks to compete for Big East Player of the Year in 2021. Zegarowski was an AP Honorable Mention All-American and 2nd Team All-Big East selection as a sophomore, ranking 3rd in the league in assist rate and 2nd in 3P% at 45.6%. Simply put, Zegarowski is an awesome all-around point guard – he sets the table for his teammates as well as anyone in the country; he scores from all three levels of the floor; and he defends well enough. McDermott’s uptempo, spread-out system is tailor made for a PG of Zegarowski’s talents, and he should once again thrive this upcoming season.
Minutes behind Zegarowski will be scarce, but sophomore Shereef Mitchell and freshman Rati Andronikashvili will both see the floor in some fashion this year. Andronikashvili is a player to watch over the next year or two; he’s one of the top European prospects in the class of 2020 and creates offense effortlessly when on the floor. Offensively, he fits Creighton’s system perfectly with his ability to score in transition, and with a 6’7” wingspan, Rati should also be a menacing on-ball defender.
Senior guard Mitchell Ballock and forwards Damien Jefferson and Christian Bishop should round out McDermott’s starting five this season. Ballock, a Weave favorite, is a three-point extraordinaire who cashed 43.6% of his 211 3PA last season. His lefty stroke is the stuff of legend. Jefferson is a versatile player who fills whatever role necessary on the floor. His hustle is the most valuable asset he brings to the table. Bishop is a serviceable 5-man who holds his own on the glass despite his size and does well protecting the rim.
Creighton’s frontcourt depth was sparse last year with the season-ending injury to Jacob Epperson. His return will bolster the frontline in 2020-21, but he hasn’t played a collegiate game since December 14, 2018. 4-star freshman Ryan Kalkbrenner should add shot blocking, but he’s extremely skinny and too raw to project a major contribution.
As said above, the Jays are so fun to watch on TV – I urge each and every one of you to tune in to at least one of their games this season. McDermott’s offense ranked 3rd in the country last season, his 4th top five offense at the school during his coaching tenure. The attack is predicated on floor spacing, three-point shooting and running in the open court. Per Synergy, the Jays ranked 4th nationally in PPP in transition last year highlighted by plays like this:
Creighton also shot 39.5% from deep in conference play, which is a repeatable feat with guys like Zegarowski, Ballock, and Mahoney still on the roster. Everyone moves well off the ball, cuts timely, and makes the extra pass – it’s beautiful basketball to behold.
Defense may be another story this season. Last year’s 78th ranked D wasn’t bad for a Creighton squad, but it still wasn’t great. The Jays focus on taking away transition, slowing opponents down, and taking away the rim and easy trips to the foul line. This can lead to open looks from the perimeter, something the Jays fell victim to far too often in 2019-20. Creighton’s lack of size hurt it on the defensive glass, and its lack of pressure allowed opposing guards to get they wanted. Without Alexander, it’s hard to see this side of the ball improving. Further, a lineup featuring Jefferson, Mahoney, and Ballock could be disastrous on the defensive end, even though the offense would be potent. McDermott will have to tinker with his rotation and find the right balance between offense and defense – or, I guess he could just try to outscore everyone.
Bottom Line: Villanova is the clear favorite in the Big East this season, but Creighton is a tier above 3rd place and below. Expect the Jays to compete for a conference title, have a near-top-five offense, and a top 90ish defense. Creighton should find itself with a high seed in March and the potential to make a deep run in the Dance behind the leadership of one of the best point guards in the land.