-Jim Root
The premise is simple here, so no need for a long preamble: which teams sport the best contingent of shooters heading into 2020-21?
One area I emphasized heavily: these are the best shooting teams in the country, meaning they can consistently roll out lineups of 4+ weapons from the perimeter, rather than just having two or three guys who can go nuts (see the Honorable Mention for those squads). Also, I excluded freshmen here, because you don’t really know what you’re going to get. Just two years ago, Nate Laszewski and Cole Swider were regarded as the two top shooters in the freshman class; they promptly combined to make just 57 threes on 32.3% shooting.
1. Davidson
This article was inspired by an off-handed comment from Will Ezekowitz (@wezekowitz), who conjectured that Davidson might be the best shooting team in the nation next season. I was intrigued, but after combing through the rosters, I am inclined to agree. Kellan Grady grabs the attention as the leading scorer, and losing Jon Axel Gudmundsson unquestionably hurts, but the offense will still create plenty of open jumpers. Sophomore Hyunjung Lee is destined to be Davidson’s next great perimeter scorer, and Carter Collins and Mike Jones will punish defenses who over-help on the team’s higher usage options.
The key is the return of Frampton, who played in only five games last season but is a walking fireball when on the court. His ability to shoot off movement is huge in Coach Bob McKillop’s motion offense:
The above clip is, of course, from Davidson’s “Dress Like Iowa” Night.
Frampton will draw plenty of defensive attention as he (and Grady) weave off of countless screens, which helps open things up for drives and post play from Luka Brajkovic, a blossoming big man with deft footwork who just needs more strength.
2. Virginia Tech
Here’s a shocker: Mike Young went and found a whole bunch of shooters! Cone, Cattoor, and Alleyne all came to Blacksburg after Buzz Williams departed for Texas A&M (Cattoor actually followed Young from Wofford after initially committing there), and those three lay the foundation for a prolific Hokies squad this year. Their youth portends improvement; however, they won’t have Landers Nolley drawing attention as the team’s primary offensive option anymore. Additionally, the Hokies will frequently be playing a conventional big (Wofford transfer Keve Aluma, Iowa transfer Cordell Pemsl) and “power forward trapped in a shooting guard’s body” Tyrece Radford.
Diarra, it’s worth noting, has shot more effectively in the past in more limited roles offensively, something he should have the luxury of reverting to this season after trying to carry a bad Kansas State offense in 2019-20.
3. Villanova
The Wildcats can safely be included on this list basically every season, as Jay Wright has embraced the benefits of floor spacing with open arms, leading to two national championships in the past five seasons. This isn’t the ludicrous 2018 team that sported assassins at all five positions, but Wright still has a bevy of options at his disposal. Plus, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl was an 81% free throw shooter this season; with both Villanova and the NBA looking to see his perimeter stroke improve, expect to see an uptick in his volume, as well.
I didn’t even include Jermaine Samuels here, a veteran rotation piece who hit 32 threes last season (albeit at a disappointing 27.6%), and sophomore Bryan Antoine oozes upside if he can claim more minutes.
4. Creighton
The Bluejays would have been the emphatic #1 choice had Ty-Shon Alexander returned with his 79 threes (39.5%). Still, Creighton may have the country’s best shooter (Ballock), and this group could still receive a boost from Alex O’Connell, although the Duke transfer’s reputation as a shooter far exceeded his results in 2019-20.
What makes Creighton especially deadly is having a truly deadly off-the-bounce gunner in Zegarowski. The smooth PG scored 1.094 points per possession on shots off the dribble, ranking him in the 94th percentile nationally, and his ability to pull up forces opponents to go over ball screens, quickly bending defenses with simple pick-and-roll action:
Reports from Creighton folks on Jones, the Memphis transfer, have been glowing, and Jefferson shot 39% on limited attempts in his first year in Omaha. Even without Alexander, the five-out lineup will continue to give opponents fits, ripping off scoring bursts in the blink of an eye.
5. Arkansas
6. Alabama
I’m pairing these two together because they’re both fast-paced SEC schools who are highly-leveraged on their best shooters withdrawing from the NBA Draft. Isaiah Joe and John Petty are among the country’s mega-elite from the perimeter; Joe’s percentage may be lacking, but you’ll have to trust me on this; he also missed five full games with a knee injury and still made 94 threes. Petty, meanwhile, blossomed with the confidence given to him by Nate Oats, whose system treats transition triples like the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. I’m willing to wager Quinerly will see a boost in his shooting numbers, as well.
Both teams added versatile forwards this offseason (Vance Jackson and Jordan Bruner), both of whom complement the existing “fire away” tendencies. Arkansas’ addition of spindly 7’3 center Connor Vanover could be a difference-maker; this release – both speed and height – is essentially unblockable:
Vanover will almost certainly struggle with some elements of the physicality against more brutish post players, but the SEC doesn’t have many of those this upcoming season, so he’ll be much more of a weapon than a liability.
7. Wisconsin
Wisconsin embodies the ability to trot out five shooters in a traditional starting lineup, as center Micah Potter has the purest stroke on the roster and fellow tower Nate Reuvers is also a threat from deep. That marries perfectly with the Badgers’ swing offense, which inverts the defense by allowing all five players to play on the perimeter, cut, and post up. Greg Gard has cited it as something he recruits specifically, following in the tradition of his mentor Bo Ryan’s knack for playing smooth-shooting big men like Frank Kaminsky, Jon Leuer, Keaton Nankivil, Brian Butch, etc.
D’Mitrik Trice is also a key here; the Badgers play so many long possessions that they need someone who can shoot off the dribble late in the shot clock (a la Bronson Koenig, Jordan Taylor…). Trice emerged as an off-the-bounce threat, ranking in the 70th percentile nationally on such plays. During the Badgers’ 8-0 stretch to end the regular season, their offense ranked 3rd in the entire country, per BartTorvik, and the bevy of perimeter weapons was a big reason why.
8. Colgate
The Raiders lose two big man shooting threats in Will Rayman and Rapolas Ivanauskas, which hurts their ability to play five-out lineups, but their guard/wing options are all so deadly that I couldn’t keep them off the list. Burns is the maestro, a lightning quick point guard who can pull up at a moment’s notice, and his ability to get into gaps in the defense wreaks havoc with a spread floor. Colgate rarely went small last season, but that may change drastically this year in order to get four of the above five guys onto the court at once.
9. Iowa
If Jordan Bohannon is back to his peak self, this may be too low. Before his hip issues last year, he was a pristine 264/643 (41.1%) for his career, making him one of the very best snipers in the entire country, and inserting that into a lineup with CJ Fredrick and Joe Wieskamp running the wings in transition is terrifying. Additionally, Luka Garza (among the many evolutions of his game last year) added a three-point stroke en route to his General Sherman-esque torching of the rest of the Big Ten.
Oddly, Wieskamp didn’t have the lights-out season I (and many others) expected; his form is pure, but he strangely struggled down the stretch of the Hawkeyes’ season (only four made triples in Iowa’s final seven games). He should see more open looks with if Garza and Bohannon are both around, and he’s a strong bet for a bounce-back campaign from beyond the arc in 2020-21.
10. Elon
I admit that Elon is probably not the 10th-best shooting team in the country as things stand right now. The Phoenix lose Marcus Sheffield and his 40.5% conversion rate from downtown, and the remaining options outside of McIntosh lacked efficiency last year. But McIntosh, Woods, and Ervin (aka Mac McClung’s Former High School Teammate) were all freshmen, and I’m bullish on Mike Schrage’s bombs-away offense (6th nationally in 3PA rate) continuing to build the confidence of his young perimeter weapons.
Related: Creighton fans fondly remember the existence of Wragge Bombs (Villanova fans too, though far less fondly), named after former forward Ethan Wragge. I vote to call any and all Elon three-pointers Schrage Bombs.
Honorable Mention
A few teams with elite top-shelf shooting, but not quite the depth of options that the above squads have:
1. George Washington – The Colonials have three guys (Jamison Battle, Maceo Jack, Siena transfer Sloan Seymour) who have made 80+ threes in a season. That’s basically it, and Seymour’s defense will be, um, “tested” in the A-10, but good luck guarding that trio with Jameer Nelson Jr. getting into the paint.
2. UC San Diego – The Tritons were a rainmaking force in Division II last season, going 30-1 while making 12.6 triples per game at 40.4%. Junior guard Tyrell Roberts knocked down in 111 bombs by himself (46.3%!), and his backcourt mates of Gabe Hadley and Mikey Howell will join him to give Big West opponents nightmares (the ones that are allowed to play sports, anyway).
3. Dayton – I don’t know who the Flyers’ fourth-best shooter will be, but the trio of Jalen Crutcher, Ibi Watson, and Rodney Chatman is enough to have opposing coaches sweating.
4. Furman – The Paladins have a case to be in the top 10, as they’ll start a five-man lineup that can all bury an open jumper. Their highest-volume threat (Jordan Lyons) is gone, though, and forwards Noah Gurley and Jalen Slawson take too few attempts to ultimately warrant a spot.
5. Georgia State – Under first-year coach Rob Lanier, the Panthers played a frenetic style that pressured on defense and spread the floor with four deadly guards on offense. That four-out style should be prolific once again, although Lanier will have to mix in more iffy shooters like like Memphis transfer Ryan Boyce and Georgia transfer Jojo Toppin.
Also considered: South Dakota State, Colorado State, Ohio State, San Diego State
Excited to hear who I forgot…