-Matt Cox
1. Baylor vs. 16. Norfolk St.
Key Background/Matchup Notes
- Fun Fact #1: The following historical precedent does not bode well for Baylor long-term in this tournament - to be clear, they are NOT losing to Norfolk
- Fun Fact #2: The only game Baylor did NOT cover in last year’s NCAA Tournament run? The opening round 1-v-16 game against Hartford - to be clear, I am NOT betting Norfolk
- Fun Fact #2: The only game Baylor did NOT cover in last year’s NCAA Tournament run? The opening round 1-v-16 game against Hartford - to be clear, I am NOT betting Norfolk
- R&R is just what the doctor ordered for Baylor. Strapped with an airtight 7-man rotation, Scott Drew will welcome the week off to get his troops ready for battle.
Baylor Has the Ball
- As my colleague Jim highlighted in our preseason MEAC preview, Norfolk Head Coach Robert Jones is a ‘master mixologist’ on defense…
- Per Synergy, Norfolk pressed and zoned at a top-75 rate nationally (often times, these are blended as one)
- This master of deception can be effective against MEAC ball handlers. Against Baylor’s assortment? Well, good luck Mr. Jones.
- The counterpoint is that Baylor’s most deadly in pick-n-roll action, which Jones’ defensive schemes can largely thwart. However, the collective passing ability of Matthew Mayer, Kendall Brown and Jeremy Sochan will be contagious
Norfolk St. Has the Ball
- Unlike their MEAC brethren, the Spartans don’t push the pace as furiously in transition. This is partly rooted in Jones’ relatively conservative coaching DNA. Lack of depth is also playing a part…
- The starting-5 of Joe Bryant, Jalen Hawkins, Tyrese Jenkins, Dana Tate and Kris Bangston have played nearly 40% of all possible minutes the last 5 games, per KenPom
- Former starter-turned-sixth man Christian Ings’ availability also remains up in the air after clocking only four minutes in the MEAC title game. His absence could force Jones to go deeper in to his bench
- The Spartans thrived against the opposing helter-skelter styles in the MEAC. Specifically, they feasted against full-court pressure and lived at the rim in conference play.
- Backcourt twofer Joe ‘the Beard’ Bryant and his running mate Jalen Hawkins should not be taken lightly. They are big and can score it from anywhere
Final Thoughts
- BartTorvik’s time capsule tool is gold. Over Baylor’s last five games of the regular season (small sample size alert!), the Bears posted the nation’s 13th best net efficiency - it’s worth noting that span captured wins over Kansas and Texas
- In short, yes, these Bears are *vulnerable* - without LC Cryer, the backcourt leans heavily on Dale Bonner as de-facto third banana to Adam Flagler and James Akinjo
- Despite Norfolk’s optimal fusion of seasoned experience and down transfer talent, it’s simply overmatched by this rendition of Sic’Em
Picks: Baylor -21, UNDER 138
8. North Carolina vs. 9. Marquette
Key Background/Matchup Notes
- The Dawson Garcia bowl is cancelled, what a shame. The former Marquette product has been on the shelf since late January
- Brady Manek’s been an assassin in his stead, though, especially down the stretch
- Was UNC’s tear through late February for real? If so, was the ACC Tournament loss to Virginia Tech a precursor of another letdown? Or was it simply a blip on the radar?
- Can Marquette snap out of a February swoon?
- Outside of February 2nd victory over Villanova, the Eagles only other wins are at home against Georgetown, Butler and St. John’s
North Carolina Has the Ball
- UNC’s may share the same matchup kryptonite as their bitter blue blood rival Duke: tough, physical and methodical. Specifically, the blueprint reads:
- Body up Armando Bacot inside. The knock on UNC is that they’re soft but Bacot is the Heels’ interior punisher
- Force Caleb Love and RJ Davis into tough, contested looks. Wear them down and limit them in transition
- Darryl Morsell’s ball hawking could be the antidote to that second bullet, while Kur Kuath, Oso Ighodaro and Big East breakout star Justin Lewis, are tough as nails inside
- However, the Eagles were beaten on the boards this season
- Marquette graded out as the worst rebounding team in the Big East by a seismic margin on both ends
Marquette Has the Ball
- Rev those engines! Shaka Smart’s cocaine-induced offense goes Mach-5 this year
- Marquette’s adjusted tempo ranks as the 5th fastest in the field, per KenPom
- How will Hubert Davis play the Justin Lewis matchup chess man?
- Leaky Black, the Heels’ top defender, is the obvious candidate but Lewis may be able to flex his muscles down low. Alternative options, at least viable ones, are limited
- Marquette’s supporting cast has been whack-a-mole lately. Who can alleviate the burden off Morsell and Lewis?
- Tyler Kolek is a gamer. Could he carve UNC’s porous ball screen defense to shreds? Rookie Kam Jones and journeyman Greg Elliot have also had moments, but neither has been consistent
Final Thoughts
- UNC could be a sleeping giant. They could also be ripe for an early exit…
- I’m exceedingly torn on this game but I’m banking on at least one non Morsell / Lewis player to step up for Marquette (Don’t ask me which one, though)
- The OVER feels so obvious but I’m going against the grain. I think the pace halts in a tightly contested game.
Picks: Marquette +3, UNDER 152
5. Saint Mary’s vs. 12. Wyoming / Indiana
Key Background/Matchup Notes
- The Gaels are everyone’s darling now, dammit. After the Gonzaga victory in Moraga, it’s officially no longer fashionable to pick them far in your bracket - so stop doing it!
- All three teams in this play-in game slot make their pay up front
- The Gaels love to play through the post, as does IU and Wyoming
- I like the Gaels against whoever emerges Tuesday night. Tommy Kuhse is a killer, folks.
Saint Mary’s Has the Ball
- Inside-out opens up everything offensively for all three teams
- Refer to this breakdown of CBB’s 6 Stylistic Segments, per Synergy
- Wyoming and Saint Mary’s, along with Ohio and Villanova, were the top point producers via post-up action in the country
- All three teams have counters to their post game. For the Gaels, it’s pick-n-roll wizard Tommy Kuhse
- This is the ace up the sleeve for Saint Mary’s. Both Indiana and Wyoming struggle to contain ball screen action
- However, the recent return of Trey Galloway and Rob Phinisee are a big boost in this domain for IU
Wyoming / Indiana Has the Ball
- There isn’t a soft spot in Saint Mary’s defense schematically - however, they can be exploited in isolated matchups
- Logan Johnson is a dogged defender. He’s a nightmare shutdown option for Xavier Johnson, if the Hoosiers advance
- IU must find ways to open up interior real estate for TJD - though, I doubt Bennett will let that happen
Final Thoughts
- Saint Mary’s has the upper hand against both opponents from a matchup perspective - at the very least, they are built to negate the opposition’s strength
- That take can be flipped on it’s head too - the difference is Kuhse and his ability to bend the defense with his crafty penetration
Picks: Lean Saint Mary’s (pending matchup price)
4. UCLA vs. 13. Akron
Key Background/Matchup Notes
- Overrated? Underrated? UCLA now feels closer to ‘just right’. If the Bruins simply hit shots against Arizona in the Pac-12 title game, their buzz would be palpable
- Akron spoiled all the MAC fun. Will they spoil UCLA’s fun?
- My first reaction was, “UCLA by 30” but I’ve decided to give Akron an open mind, courtesy of my colleague Ky’s savvy advice
UCLA Has the Ball
- Jaime Jaquez and Jules Bernard are ‘out-starring’ Johnny Juzang lately while Juzang works his way back from injury - they’ve been brilliant the last three weeks of the regular season
- However, Juzang and PG Tyger Campbell looked close to as good as new in the Pac-12 Tournament - as their health trends toward full strength, the Bruins could rise again
- Akron isn’t tall but they are long. MAC DPOTY Enrique Freeman is a string bean but his length is noticeable.
Additionally, the Zips’ guards and wings are relatively long and switchable, too, a hallmark of Jon Groce’s DNA
Akron Has the Ball
- The Zips route their offense inside-out, predominantly through Freeman and newfound star Ali Ali (yes, this is another post-up heavy offense)
- Per Synergy, Akron posted-up at the 9th highest rate in the country this year
- I would tread lightly trying to post up Cody Riley and Myles Johnson, though
- UCLA doesn’t need to throw any curveballs defensively but don’t be surprised to see Cronin use zone - in Two of Akron’s wort offensive performances during league play were against Central Michigan, who plays a hyper extended zone
- The Chips held the Zips to 0.98 and 0.92 PPP, respectively, in those meetings
Final Thoughts
- My colleague Ky ‘Toretto Takes’ McKeon may have sniffed out a gold mine with Akron as a feisty underdog - the Zips’ assortment of long, rangy forwards bears a striking resemblance to the Bruins
- I lean Akron at +14 but the number is too low to endorse as a confident wager
- UCLA should look to pound it inside with Riley and Johnson, given the matchup edge over the leaner Zips - Riley in particular, as he’s the far more advanced offensive threat
Picks: Akron +14, UNDER 128
6. Texas vs. 11. Virginia Tech
Key Background/Matchup Notes
- The battle of Burnt Orange! Two NCAA masterminds square off in this shrewd chess match
- One team is red hot, and the other one isn’t – note that this simple dynamic, statistically, has little predictive power in detecting a first-round winner in the NCAA tournament
- VT’s won 13 of its last 15 games dating back to January 29th – they are the 13th best team in college basketball during that span, per BartTorvik, on a net efficiency basis
- Texas has dropped three in a row but losses to Baylor, Kansas and TCU in the Big-12 gauntlet is nothing to scoff at
- Big discrepancy between the eye test and the numbers with Texas (at least in my eyes) – herein lies the fallacy of overanalyzing the offensive side of the ball when evaluating a team
- Texas posted the Big-12’s 3rd most efficient offense this year– it may not always be pretty but it’s subtly effective
Virginia Tech Has the Ball
- Dig a level deeper than the “Elite shooters against pack-line”. As Jordan Majewski highlights, that’s an oversimplification of this matchup
- Up front, Beard’s agile frontline matches up well with Virginia Tech – though not intimidating from a size perspective, Timmy Allen and Christian Bishop are tailor-made to check VT’s tandem of Keve Aluma and Justyn Mutts
- Allen and Bishop’s versatility enables switchability, too, which *should* help the Horns defend VT’s surgical off ball action
Texas Has the Ball
- Without Timmy Allen, who knows where the Longhorns would be. The 6’7 mismatch conundrum is Texas’ get out of jail free card, along with prolific shot maker Marcus Carr
- Texas’ motion offense often stalls, putting the onus on Allen and Carr to make something out of nothing – Courtney Ramey isn’t shy here, either
- Per Synergy, Texas finished with the 20th highest isolation rate in the country
- Devil’s Advocate: Texas’ disjointed offensive cohesion may lead to ‘hero ball’ too frequently but the Longhorns boast multiple bucket getters, capable of converting these timely bail outs – in a low possession, low scoring affair, those buckets feel like gut punches to the opponent
Final Thoughts
- After flip-flopping over five times I already, I’ve decided to ignore the matchup nuances. This is a team I love against a team I don’t.
- I fear I glossed over the myriad of little things Texas does do well, which is why the analytic models love them (make free throws, take care of the ball, all that boring nonsense)
- UNDER by default but only a lean (the number is LOW but both teams are built to defend the other)
Picks: Virginia Tech +1, OVER 123
3. Purdue vs. 14. Yale
Key Background/Matchup Notes
- At first glance, this is a runaway – will the data unveil a skeleton key for the Ivy League champs?
- Yale, the Ivy preseason favorite, won the 4-team Ivy Madness tournament to punch their ticket thanks to Azar Swain’s sweet, sweet shotmaking
- Purdue, once considered bulletproof elite, has taken fire for their shoddy defense throughout Big Ten play – their flaws, though few and far between, are no secret anymore
- Purdue’s supporting cast needs to stop with the disappearing acts – you can bet that James Jones is deep in the lab cooking up a scheme to force “the others” on Purdue to beat them
Purdue Has the Ball
- If there’s a beacon of hope for Yale, it’s their athletic guard corps cranking up pressure on the Boiler backcourt. Giveaways killed Purdue against Iowa in the Big Ten tournament, even Ivey, who coughed it up five precious times in that loss
- Cold shooting has also doomed Purdue against Iowa. Ivey’s turned into a respectable shooter, but his driving lanes are sewn up with guys like Sasha Stefanovic and Isaiah Thompson fading down the stretch
- Everything above, however, is probably moot in this matchup - have you seen Zach Edey? Yale’s undersized frontline stands no chance against Edey and Trevion Williams
- Looking up Yale’s post-up defensive metrics are hardly relevant in this context (but since you asked, they aren’t horrible!)
- Yale’s benefitted from fortuitous opponent shooting luck this season. Ivy foes were dead last against Yale in both 3-point shooting and free throw shooting this season
- Refer to the Ivy League title game against Princeton. The Tigers missed a myriad of open looks, while Swain hit acrobatic shots on repeat
Yale Has the Ball
- Azar Swain’s a legend in the Ancient-8. For non Ivy Leaguers and non degenerates, hope that Swain sees his first couple fall through – if so, this one may not be so ugly
- An intricate offense with elite shotmakers and athletic slashers is a deadly recipe in the Ivy. That’s what Yale brings to the table in Ivy showdowns. It could, in theory, pose problems for Purdue’s perimeter defense
- James Jones is seeing early returns from young guns such Matt Knowling, Bez Mbeng and EJ Jarvis. Look for Knowling and Mbeng to be featured early and often, as Painter will likely divert all defensive attention toward Swain
Final Thoughts
- Purdue’s defensive warts could rear their ugly head, again… even then, the Boilers should cruise regardless
- Jones must go full mad scientist (5-guard lineup?!) to pull off the improbable – it’s been a while since we saw Purdue against mid-major caliber size but it rarely went well for that poor, feeble opponent
Picks: Purdue -16, OVER 143
7. Murray St. vs. 10. San Francisco
Key Background/Matchup Notes
- Committee screwed up badly here – no way around it, completely unfair to both programs. We need a committee to evaluate the committee and I’d like to chair that committee, if possible
- The phones will be ringing off the hook for these two highly sought coaches once the tournament subsides (Todd Golden for USF; Matt McMahon for Murray). There’s a reason us *experts* are up in arms over this draw
- Murray ran circles around the watered down OVC but proved their worth by sweeping Belmont and Morehead. Oh yeah, they put the hurt on Memphis, too, but that was back when we were all making fun of Memphis…
- The Dons’ differentiator = data-driven intelligence. BUT, they got some ‘Jimmy and Joes’, too (Jamaree Bouyea and Khalil Shabazz are blurs in the open floor; Gabe Stefanini is a crafty, throwback shotmaker).
- The status of Yauhen Massalski looms large for USF’s frontline. Without him, the Dons will have their hands full with the Racers’ walking double-double KJ Williams.
Murray Has the Ball
- With all due respect to Steve McMahon, this roster is basically on autopilot…
- In the half-court, if they aren’t punching you in the mouth inside, they’re raining in jumpers from the outside. And if those outside shots don’t fall, they simply go grab it and start the process over
- In transition, it’s checkmate Racers
- Per Synergy, the Racers graded out as the 13th most efficient transition offense in America – that’s astounding given that nearly 20% of all shots come in transition (60th highest rate in the country)
- Steve McMahon loves to run off-ball screens to free up long range sniper Tevin Brown. If he or fellow assassin Justice “Juice” Hill catch fire, it may be over in a hurry
San Francisco Has the Ball
- Bouyea sets the tone with his calculated playmaking – he’s quiet and unassuming, but I’m hoping he explodes out of his shell in this one
- Note that Murray’s bulldog defender Trae Hannibal could be a tough draw – he’s a jet quick fire hydrant at the point of attack, despite being Murray’s quasi 6th man
- Shabazz is Bouyea’s backcourt deputy – in a game of thoroughbreds, ‘Bazz’ may be the fastest horse on the floor (and he can fill it up when hot, too)
- Newly emerged X-Factor Julian Rishwain HAS to stay hot as well. The other supporting cogs for the Dons are specialists in different domains, but Rishwain’s shotmaking could be a difference maker
- The former Boston College transfer has 13 or more points in four of his last five outings, including 20 against Gonzaga
Final Thoughts
- If the Dons’ revamped frontline isn’t fully intact (read: if Massalski can’t play), the Racers have the edge in this razor close matchup. Patrick Tape, the former Duke transfer, better have his big boy pants on…
- Massalski is the heartbeat of this team but Todd Golden will surely have a matchup edge or two embedded in their plan of attack, as he always does – still, it may not be enough to out-duel these Racers
Picks: Murray State -1 OVER 137
2. Kentucky vs. 15. Saint Peter’s
Key Background/Matchup Notes
- Yes, the talent and size gap is sizable, folks, as one might expect between Kentucky and Saint Peter’s
- The Peacocks bully the MAAC – they cannot bully UK
- SPU starts 6’2, 6’2, 6’3, 6’7, 6’7
- Granted, the Peacocks play bigger than that puny lineup suggests, enabled by Shaheen Holloway’s army of rangy wings
- Much like the Purdue / Yale narrative, the dog is simply overmatched here.
Kentucky Has the Ball
- Can SPU guarantee this game stays out of transition? If so, this game could turn into a slog (good for Saint Pete!)
- The Peacocks’ defensive transition metrics are pedestrian, per Synergy and hoop-match.com – this is encouraging?
- Even if UK gets bogged down, the Big-O will manhandle the paint. He was virtually unstoppable in the SEC – even the MAAC’s stingiest defensive unit has no answer for him
- Saint Peter’s defensive strength is versatility, epitomized by defensive vacuum KC Ndefo – they excel at challenging drivers / rim attackers but NOT at defending the post
- Don’t snooze on UK’s outside shooting – when Kellan Grady starts going, there’s no way to corral all their other weapons
- Kentucky boasted the SEC’s best 3PT%, largely due to Grady’s marksmanship
Saint Peter’s Has the Ball
- If the Peacocks can’t manufacture points, they simply cannot score:
- Per synergy, SPU ranks outside the top-300 in all major play type categories, including post-ups, spot-ups, pick-n-roll and even transition
- That said, Doug Edert and Matthew Banks are the exceptions to the rule. Collectively, they’re responsible for SPU’s shockingly high conversion rate from long distance (granted, they take very few)
- Edert had 20 points, including 8 clutch free throws, to help the Peacocks escape by Monmouth in the MAAC final
- Banks eclipsed double digits in six consecutive games before the MAAC Tournament Semis
- In essence, UK needs to find both
Final Thoughts
- Kentucky should roll but I ADORE the UNDER here (it’s been bet down already, though)
- Historically, Coach Cal tends to tighten up his offense in the postseason, as possessions become more and more precious in a win-or-go home setting
- SPU is the epitome of that scrappy thorn in side team no one wants to play. UK may not score as easily as many think