-Jim Root
16. Wright St. vs. 16. Bryant
Key Background/Matchup Notes
- Both offenses > both defenses
- Ranked directly next to each other on KenPom – that’s fun!
- Bryant’s first ever Division I NCAA Tournament appearance; Wright State’s second in five years under Scott Nagy
- Quasi-home game for Wright State - UD Arena is 15 minutes from the Raiders’ campus
Wright State Has the Ball
- Super post up-heavy – 19th nationally in frequency, Grant Basile is in the 86th percentile nationally in efficiency. He’s a monster on the block
- Bryant is difficult to post against – 6th nationally in zone possessions, have a shot-blocker in the middle in Hall Elisias
- Wright State struggles mightily against zone (18th percentile in PPP) and they faced a lot of it (2nd-most in the country)
- Tanner Holden, an all-league lefty wing, is a solid playmaker at the FT line though
- It’s a soft zone – the Bulldogs do not force turnovers and Wright State will pound the offensive glass
- PG Trey Calvin is Wright State’s third-best player, often comes up with big shots (game-winner in the Horizon title game)
- Bulldogs will also press (21.4% of the time), Wright State is average against pressure
Bryant Has the Ball
- #1 goal is to get out in transition – rim or three
- One of the quintessential slash-and-kick offenses in the country. Reliant on Peter Kiss, Charles Pride, Luis Hurtado to get downhill and create advantages off the bounce
- Bryant’s shooters have the ultimate green light from deep, but have not shot it well (30.7%, 311th). Kiss, Pride, Adham Eleeda (88 made triples!) are capable of getting hot though
- Kiss is the nation’s leading scorer. When he was suspended for three games, Pride totaled 102 points. Ridiculously deadly duo
- Wright State has serious struggles stopping dribble penetration this year; the Raiders’ perimeter defenders are not great. Basile is big, but not a true rim protector
Final Thoughts
- Matchup is too strongly in favor of Bryant to ignore – clear edges on both ends of the floor
- Both want to run – only risk for tempo is the Bryant zone, but Wright State will beat it down the floor at times
- Efficiency should also be high – Bryant has routes to points, Wright should work the offensive glass
- Coaching edge lies with Wright State – Scott Nagy is excellent. Bryant’s Jared Grasso has assembled a ton of talent for an NEC program, but they can be bullied
- Does the crowd edge matter? I’m not sold on it being a major differentiator here
Picks: Bryant +3.5, Over 154.5
11. Notre Dame vs. 11. Rutgers
Key Background/Matchup Notes
- Good luck figuring out Rutgers: 352nd in consistency, per Haslametrics
- Notre Dame had four Q1/Q2 wins combined; Rutgers had six Q1A wins
- Notre Dame is 250th in tempo, Rutgers 289th – this will definitely be a half court game
Notre Dame Has the Ball
- Strength on strength. Both teams excel here
- Roster has a ton of skill – excellent perimeter shooting, never turn the ball over
- Generate offense mostly via pick-and-roll (19th nationally in frequency), 97th percentile in points per possession when they run a PnR
- Best used as a tool to move the defense – Blake Wesley, Prentiss Hubb are not that efficient as scorers out of PnR
- Rutgers has multiple tremendous individual defenders. Caleb McConnell in particular is a glove, and he could swallow up Wesley (who is only a froshy)
- The Scarlet Knights take away the paint, but that’s ok with Notre Dame, who loads the court with shooters. When Nate Laszewski slides to center, all five guys on the court can launch
- Paul Atkinson has been useful as a post scorer, but they may not be an option against Rutgers’ Cliff Omoruyi
Rutgers Has the Ball
- It’s not pretty. Can’t really shoot, often struggle to create quality shots. Per Hoop-Math, Rutgers takes the 33rd-most mid-range jumpers and ranks 218th in FG% on them
- Because of the above, teams zoned them a lot (even Big Ten teams). Awful against zone (0.858 PPP, 24th percentile)
- That’s a problem, because Notre Dame is happy to mix in zone looks. Not a big team, not a deep team, helps them slow the game down
- Notre Dame also plays the math game on defense – allows a ton of mid-range jumpers, takes away second shot opportunities
- Ron Harper Jr. is a complete matchup nightmare. Notre Dame has no forwards capable of guarding him. He could bully the Irish guards or blow by Laszewski
Final Thoughts
- Largely a stalemate in the coaching department. Mike Brey is an offensive mastermind, Steve Pikiell builds tremendous defenses with intense physicality. Both teams play hard
- Rutgers physicality could wear down Notre Dame in the same way it did to Clemson last season in the Round of 64.
- Possession projection at KenPom is 64 – I think it will be slightly below that given both teams’ tendencies