- Ky McKeon
Key Returners: Drew Timme, Andrew Nembhard, Anton Watson, Julian Strawther, Dominick Harris
Key Losses: Jalen Suggs, Corey Kispert, Joel Ayayi, Aaron Cook
Key Newcomers: Rasir Bolton (Iowa State), Chet Holmgren, Hunter Sallis, Nolan Hickman, Kaden Perry
Lineup:
Outlook: For the second consecutive season Gonzaga will enter the year the unanimous #1 team in the country. That preseason confidence in 2020 was not misplaced, as the Zags went undefeated during the regular season, captured a 1-seed, and didn’t win a game by less than double digits (save against WVU early in the year) until the freaking Final Four. While Mark Few and the boys ultimately came up short of a National Championship, the Zags’ 2020-21 was a resounding success.
Few’s resume at the helm of Gonzaga is nothing short of amazing. Since he took over in 2000, the Zags have made every NCAA Tournament and have notched six Sweet Sixteen appearances, two Elite Eights, and two National Title games. Including the canceled 2020 Big Dance, Gonzaga has earned a 1-seed in four of the last five Tournaments. Few’s record in WCC play the past five seasons is 80-3. Three All-American-level players depart from last season, but the Zags will still sit atop the polls when the 2021-22 season commences in November.
The amount of talent on this roster is stupid, and Few will be charged with figuring out a rotation that 1) allows his team to play at the highest possible level and 2) maintain morale of some very high-ranking recruits. Every single freshman and sophomore on the roster (seven players in total) is either a 4-star or 5-star recruit. Returning big man Drew Timme was an All-American last season; senior point guard Andrew Nembhard was a 5-star recruit himself and former Florida Gator; junior forward Anton Watson was a top-50 recruit; and Rasir Bolton, an Iowa State import, was the leading scorer on a Big 12 team last year. Having this many mouths to feed is a good problem to have, and Few has had success playing large rotations before, but from a pure pedigree perspective this is arguably his deepest and most talented roster yet.
The starting book-end positions (center and point guard) are known. Timme, a 6’10” junior who beat out Luka Garza for KenPom’s POY award last season, will likely be the favorite to capture National Player of the Year honors in 2021-22. He had the highest usage on the team last season yet still ranked 15th in the country in o-rating. Timme’s footwork in the post is the best in the country; he is a true master of the pump fake and has incredible patience on the block.
I mean… sheesh
Per Synergy, Timme scored 1.276 PPP on post-ups last season, the 19th best mark in the country but by far the best mark among players with over 100, and even 50, possessions.
Nembhard played his role perfectly last season after transferring from Florida. He filled in primarily as a facilitator and worked well with Jalen Suggs, the Zags’ superstar freshman. Last year Nembhard added a bit of everything to the Zags’s effort – he scored when called upon, defended well, and put his highly talented teammates in good positions to score. This year Nembhard may be asked to take on a more assertive scoring role, and certainly a leadership role. He’ll be the benefactor of more ball screens in 2021-22, an area in which he exceled last season.
Few’s wing rotation will be of great intrigue heading into this season. He has five capable players to fill two spots. Former 4-star top-75 recruits Julian Strawther and Dominick Harris have patiently waited their turn to crack meaningful minutes. The pair of sophomores were buried behind the likes of Corey Kispert, Suggs, and Joel Ayayi last season but now look to blossom in year two. Strawther is a big wing at 6’7” who can score from anywhere on the floor. Of the five options, he’s the only “true” 3-man of the bunch. Harris played well last season in limited minutes, shooting 39% from deep on 23 attempts. His biggest asset is his defensive potential, especially key with the loss of bulldog (ha, pun) defenders Suggs and Ayayi.
Iowa State transfer Rasir Bolton likely didn’t come to Gonzaga to sit on the pine, especially after being the best player on an albeit terrible Cyclone team last season.
Bolton is a career 34.2% 3P shooter who has been a bit erratic during his college career primarily due to being forced into an alpha / do-everything-or-my-team-loses role. Like former SIU Saluki Aaron Cook last year, Bolton won’t need to be the high-usage scorer he was at his previous stop. He could slot into the starting five alongside Nembhard and be a weapon off the ball or provide instant offense in an off-the-bench sparkplug role.
Then there’s the high-ranking freshmen joining the fold this season. Hunter Sallis, a 5-star recruit and top 20 prospect in the 2021 class, is a combo guard looking to steal plenty of reps this year. Sallis is a mega athlete and skilled guard capable of handling the rock and creating his own shot. While Few doesn’t have a long history of starting freshmen, 5-stars seem to be the exception, and Sallis appears ready to contribute immediately. 4-star top-30 point guard Nolan Hickman, a former Kentucky commit, figures to be Nembhard’s primary backup this season if he isn’t thrust into the starting five. Hickman is long and athletic and possesses a good frame that can develop with weight training over the next few months. His passing ability is elite for his age, and he has very sticky handles. Assuming Hickman doesn’t bolt for the pros after this season, he has a bright future at Gonzaga.
The frontcourt pecking order is a little clearer alongside Timme. Gatorade Player of the Year and #1 prospect Chet Holmgren figures to fill into the starting 4-spot, edging out the returning Anton Watson, a starter of 17 games last year. Holmgren, seen below doing his best “Blue Steel” impression, is already a superstar in the media, so expect unrelenting attention on the unicorn all season from the likes of ESPN (think Zion level of intrigue).
Holmgren practicing Blue Steel, Le Tigre, and Ferrari
Many believe Holmgren will be one of the best players in the country next season with his unprecedented combination of ball skills, shooting, mobility, size, and shot blocking. At 7’0” 190 lbs., a light breeze can topple his frame, but he’s obviously one of the most unique prospects we’ve seen in some time.
He will at the very least be a super impactful shot blocker on defense and at the most be an All-American contender, a floor spacer next to Timme, and a matchup nightmare on the offensive end.
Watson is a great player in his own right and will play a key role as a sub for both Timme and Holmgren (or, heck, move Chet to the 3 and play all of them together). He shot 71.1% on 2PFGA last season (7th nationally) thanks to nearly 74% of his FGA coming at the rim (Hoop-Math). Look for Watson to be a super-sub in the frontcourt this season, provide rebounding, post-scoring, and to be a primary participant in the Zags’ pick-n-roll game.
Two more frontcourt pieces, Ben Gregg and Kaden Perry, will battle for minute scraps after the big three are finished dining. Gregg, a former 4-star top 100 recruit, reclassed from the 2021 class and joined Gonzaga early last season. He’ll be a future factor for the Zags with his ability to rebound and stretch the floor. Perry is an under-sized 4-star center with great length and incredible bounce. He dunks easily and seems like he can put his chin on the rim. Perry’s future is as a rim protector and post scorer; he already has college-ready strength to compete in the paint.
With all the talent on this roster, it should be expected the Zags once again lead the country in offensive efficiency, as they have for each of the past three seasons. Gonzaga’s attack is uptempo and transition-focused, but also methodical and unselfish. Last year’s squad had great chemistry and no one player was “looking to get his” or playing the “my turn” game. This should stay consistent in 2021-22, especially with the cornerstone pieces in Timme and Nembhard returning.
Defense is usually the “worst” side of the ball for Gonzaga, but Few’s squads have historically ranked inside the top-20 in adjusted efficiency over the past seven seasons. Consistent denial of 3s and consistent forcing of isolation are both keys to Gonzaga’s defensive philosophy. Perimeter defense may fall off a tad from last year, unless Harris proves to be a lockdown defender and one or more other Zags steps up in this effort. Interior defense could be nails if Holmgren lives up to his billing as a shot-blocking extraordinaire.
Bottom Line: Gonzaga faces a gauntlet of a non-conference schedule, but it’s a very real possibility the Zags run the table in the regular season once again. This team is a tier above the next-best squad in the country and deserves every bit to be named as the National Title favorite heading into 2021-22.