- Ky McKeon
Key Returners: Kofi Cockburn, Trent Frazier, Andre Curbelo, Da’Monte Williams, Jacob Grandison, Coleman Hawkins
Key Losses: Ayo Dosunmu, Giorgi Bezhanishvili, Adam Miller
Key Newcomers: Alfonso Plummer (Utah), Omar Payne (Florida), Austin Hutcherson (DII), Ramses “RJ” Melendez, Luke Goode, Brandin Podziemski
Lineup:
Outlook: Brad Underwood finally succeeded in leading Illinois basketball back to the national elite. The Illini finished as the 4th-best team in KenPom and enjoyed their best season since Bruce Weber’s runner-up 2005 squad. Though an early Big Dance exit to in-state foe Loyola wasn’t the ideal outcome, it was still a successful season for Illinois. Last year was just the first NCAA Tourney appearance for the Illini since 2013 (not counting the presumed 2020 appearance), and now Underwood has expectations to maintain Illinois’s relevance in the national conversation going forward.
While talent remains on the roster, the Illini have a ton of bodies to replace both on the coaching staff and the player sheet. Underwood lost his top three assistants from last year’s squad, as Orlando Antigua and Chin Coleman headed over to Big Blue Nation and Stephen Gentry went back to his roots at Gonzaga. By all accounts, those are significant blows both from a schematic and recruiting lens. Former U of I point guard Chester Frazier will fill one of the vacant assistant coaching spots -- perhaps his familiarity with the program will help lessen the impact.
Ayo Dosunmu turned pro this offseason, robbing Illinois of an All-American, but by the grace of the Basketball Gods, 7-foot behemoth Kofi Cockburn elected to return to campus after flirting with the NBA Draft and the transfer portal. Junior forward Giorgi Bezhanishvili turned pro and former top-30 prospect Adam Miller took a bag from big bad Willy Wade and headed down to the Bayou.
We shouldn’t expect the Illini to be a surefire top ten offensive and defensive team as they were last season – Dosunmu was a major part of that success – but there’s reason to believe Illinois can come close to those numbers and compete at the top of the Big Ten once again.
Illinois’s offense was so successful last season because it had an elite creator in Dosunmu, an elite post presence in Cockburn, and elite shooters surrounding the pair. That shooting is very much back this season, with the likes of Trent Frazier, Da’Monte Williams, and Jacob Grandison returning plus the additions of some sharpshooting transfers and recruits. While creation won’t be the same without Dosunmu, sophomore guard Andre Curbelo could make up for a big chunk of the lost production.
Curbelo was a Big Ten All-Freshman Team member and the conference’s 6th Man of the Year in 2020-21. Just watching him on the floor, you could tell this was a player waiting to explode. He’ll have his chance this season as the primary ball-handler. Though erratic at times, Curbelo proved he was an electric and creative scorer capable of carrying the offensive load. Curbelo’s absolute ceiling is a spot on an All-American Team in 2021-22; he led the Big Ten in assist rate as a freshman, and experience should help cut down on his high turnover rate. Underwood’s ball screen heavy offense should be in good hands with the 6’1” dynamo running things - he’s a dazzling playmaker equally capable of setting up others or scoring himself using his craft and burst:
Putting post presence aside for a second, let’s run through Illinois’s shooting, because it has a ton of weapons on the perimeter capable of making it one of the best deep-ball teams in the country. Illinois didn’t shoot many 3s last year but ranked 30th in 3P%. Frazier and Williams will take on the “old man river” roles of the squad, each a veteran of over 120 games played in an Illinois uniform.
Frazier really settled into his secondary role nicely after being tasked with a ton of playmaking and ball-handling responsibility as a freshman and sophomore. An Honorable Mention All-Big Ten recipient last season, Frazier comes into this season as a 36% career outside shooter on a whopping 675 attempts. He also doubles as one of the best defenders in the conference, etching his name on the All-Defense squad in 2020-21. Williams is the perfect role player, a guy every school would love to have on its roster. Essentially a 4-man in a guard’s body, Williams brings solid defense, hustle, and rebounding to the fold. Oh yeah, he also led the country in 3P% last year with an insane 54.7% clip while hitting several *clutch* buckets late in games.
Grandison, the former Holy Cross transfer, is a guy who could be in for a major breakout this season. Underwood waxed poetic about Grandison two years ago following a Bragging Rights loss to Mizzou, saying he was often the best player in practice. Finally eligible last year, Grandison filled a key role on an elite squad as an uber-efficient shooting threat (low, low volume, but he actually had a 50/40/90 season). Grandison started almost every game after mid-January and will be counted on to provide more shooting, handling, and even creation this coming season.
The shooting doesn’t stop at the returners. Utah import Alfonso Plummer comes in as one of the purest (and most willing) shooters in the country. A career 40% 3-point shooter on a high volume of attempts, Plummer is liable to score 20 or 30 on any given night and could fill an “instant offense” role off the pine.
Underwood could opt to play Plummer alongside Frazier and Curbelo, but backcourt size could be an issue. He’ll give Illinois pretty much everything Miller did offensively, but the defensive end will be a downgrade.
Four more shooters join the fold in DII transfer Austin Hutcherson and 4-star freshmen Ramses “RJ” Melendez, Luke Goode, and Brandin Podziemski. Hutcherson sat out with a back injury last season, and that still might be an issue in 2021-22. If healthy, Hutcherson can be a deadly shooting threat after averaging 20 PPG and knocking down 39.2% of his triples in 2018-19. Melendez has a dope name, good bounce, and plus length. He’s mainly a catch-and-shoot type of player right now and likely needs a year or two to develop. Goode could crack the rotation right away with his beautiful stroke and size. Also, fun fact, former NFL QB Trent Green is his uncle. Podziemski is the most athletic of the freshmen; he’s a strong lefty who can create a bit off the dribble and likely offers the most defensive upside of the group.
Up until mid-July, the frontcourt was a major question mark for the Illini heading into the season, but now it’s a strength once again. With Bezhanishvili’s departure, Underwood lacks proven options behind Cockburn, but the big man may render that irrelevant with his physical dominance.
Cockburn is a true game-changer. His presence alone vaulted Illinois 15-20 spots up our pre-season rankings following a year in which he ranked 7th in KenPom’s POY award, top five in the Big Ten in rebounding rate on both ends of the floor, 7th in block rate, and 1st in FG%. Underwood will run offense through his big man on the block, where he’s arguably the most unstoppable force in the country:
Sophomore big man Coleman Hawkins has gotten a ton of buzz this offseason as a player who could blossom in his second year. From the Daily Illini, Underwood heaped praise on the lanky big man:
“Coleman is a guy who I see a huge jump coming, whether we play him at the four or the five.”
Hawkins has length to be an effective interior deterrent and can even step outside and shoot the 3 on the other end of the floor.
Florida transfer Omar Payne will backup Cockburn at the 5 this season, but his playing time was spotty in Gainesville. Payne is a gifted shot-blocker (8% or higher block rate in each of the past two seasons), but his offensive game is limited to “catch and dunk.” He’ll ensure the defense doesn’t fall off a cliff when Cockburn sits, but he won’t give the Illini much on offense outside of being a lob threat. Past Hawkins and Payne, Illinois has a pair of forwards in Benjamin Bosmans-Verdonk and Brandon Lieb. Neither player likely sees much floor time this season.
Underwood continued dialing back his full-court pressure from the 2019-20 season, an appropriate strategy in a league as talented as the Big Ten. Illinois still gets out on the perimeter in the half-court; Underwood squads are consistently among the best in the country at preventing 3-point attempts. This should be the case again with Kofi standing under the hoop to deter drivers, gobble rebounds, and battle Big Ten big men. The perimeter defense should remain somewhat solid with Frazier’s return, but Dosunmu and Miller leaving reduces the team’s size and length. Expect to see a defense ranking closer to 15-20th nationally (ranked 35th in 2019-20), instead of last year’s 7th place finish.
Bottom Line: Illinois should compete for another top seed in March this season, and Cockburn’s return gives the Illini a rock solid floor. Curbelo will look to ascend to alpha status on the perimeter and lead his team to a Big Ten title and shot at the Final Four.