- Ky McKeon
Key Returners: Trayce Jackson-Davis, Race Thompson, Rob Phinisee, Trey Galloway, Khristian Lander
Key Losses: Armaan Franklin, Aljami Durham, Jerome Hunter
Key Newcomers: Xavier Johnson (Pitt), Parker Stewart (UT Martin), Miller Kopp (Northwestern), Michael Durr (South Florida), Tamar Bates, Logan Duncomb
Lineup:
Outlook: The Archie Miller era is done at Indiana after four seasons of mediocrity. Miller joins his brother Sean on the chopping block after failing to bring the once-storied program back to prominence. In four seasons under Miller Indiana went 33-44 in Big Ten play and never officially made the NCAA Tournament thanks to the COVID cancellation in 2020. Miller, once thought of as one of the brightest rising coaching stars in the country, never outperformed his preseason KenPom rank at IU. Given the lofty expectations in Bloomington, his firing came as little surprise.
Former Hoosier star Mike Woodson, a 1980 All-American while playing for Bob Knight, takes over for Miller after coaching in the NBA as an assistant and head coach since 1996. Initially Woodson’s hiring was met with mixed reviews, but he’s already won over many doubters this offseason by hanging onto would-be transfers, snagging wins on the recruiting trail, and bringing in one of the best young coaches in America, Dane Fife, to join his staff.
Woodson’s roster is arguably the deepest and most talented Indiana has had in quite some time, and he plans on using that talent to its full potential by implementing an “NBA” style of play focusing on transition, floor spacing, and shooting 3s. Woodson has been referenced by several sources saying he wants to play 4-out / 1-in on offense, giving his All-American Trayce Jackson-Davis plenty of room to work in the middle of a bevy of outside shooters. Recent versions of Indiana weren’t built for this type of style. IU hasn’t shot over 33% from the outside since 2016-17 and consistently checked in as one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country under Miller. That should change in 2021-22.
TJD’s decision to skip the NBA Draft and return to IU was one of the most impactful player decisions in the nation this offseason. Jackson-Davis was an Honorable Mention AP All-American, 3rd Team Sporting News All-American, and All-Big Ten honoree as a sophomore and should be a top-ten player in the country this season. IU’s shooting ability this year will give TJD ample space in the post to score one-on-one, an area he exceled in last year, scoring 1.04 PPP (87th percentile nationally).
The 6’9” 5-man has the mobility to thrive in an up-and-down system and promises to be one of the toughest matchups for opposing bigs with his unique combination of size, athleticism, length, and quickness.
Alongside TJD will be another forward seemingly tailor-made for an uptempo style of play. Race Thompson finally stepped into a full-time starting role last season, proving to be an effective two-way player who brought energy and physicality to the floor. While not a great outside shooter, Thompson’s ability to run the court, attack the rim, and defend on the other end should allow him to start at the 4 and see major minutes under the new regime.
Conceivably, the remaining three starting spots are up for grabs, a function not of a lack of talent but rather an abundance. Point guard play will be split between incumbent starter Rob Phinisee, Pitt transfer Xavier Johnson, and rising sophomore Khristian Lander.
Phinisee has started the past three seasons when healthy but has never posted an offensive rating over 100.0 (and last year it fell below 90.0). A career 29.8% 3-point shooter on a decently high volume, Phinisee just clearly isn’t the answer for an IU team looking to compete for a Big Ten title. My colleague Matt continues to die on the hill that Phinisee carries Big Ten caliber point guard potential. The reality is, recurring injuries (and concussions) have deflated his confidence and it continues to affect his play on the offensive end – though, defensively, he’s rock solid. On this roster, he’s a serviceable lead guard who can fill valuable minutes off the pine.
Johnson scored over 1,000 point in three seasons at Pitt and was the ACC’s highest-used played in 2020-21. He led the conference in assist rate and has proven to be a much better shooter, scorer, and all-around creator than Phinisee during his collegiate career. Johnson should be a perfect fit for Woodson’s transition attack, an area he thrived in for the Panthers the past three seasons.
Lander came to IU last season as a 5-star recruit reclassed from 2021. Like fellow reclassified point guard Devin Askew at Kentucky, Lander was abominable when he saw the floor and failed immensely to live up to his hype. Lander posted a team-worst 69.7 o-rating, sporting a near-30% TO rate and shooting 23% from 2 and 27% from 3. While clearly talented, for whatever reason things just didn’t click for Lander in 2020-21. Woodson convinced Lander to stay at IU this season after he entered the portal post Miller-firing, and the blue chipper seems excited to play for his new head coach. He’ll have extreme competition for minutes, though, with the more experienced Phinisee and Johnson vying for playing time.
Wing minutes may very well be decided by who can hit outside shots. TJD will be the focal point of the IU offense and ball handling should be in good hands. Woodson’s wings simply need to be able to hit open 3s and attack sloppy close-outs when needed. Trey Galloway, Anthony Leal, Parker Stewart, Miller Kopp, and Tamar Bates all have aspirations for major minutes on the wing this year, and Woodson will need to figure out how best to feed his numerous hungry mouths.
Galloway played major minutes as a freshman despite coming to IU as the lowest ranked recruit of Miller’s final 4-man recruiting class. Frankly, I couldn’t tell you why. With a 92.4 o-rating and an 18% 3-point clip, Galloway’s inclusion in the starting lineup seemed out of place. Intangibles like hustle and positioning on defense earned Galloway time on the floor in 2020-21, but his competition is likely too stiff to garner as much PT this season. Leal also likely takes a backseat to the other mentioned players, as he’s primarily a one-trick pony as a spot-up shooter. Last season Leal attempted 30 3s to just 2 2s.
Transfers Parker Stewart (UT Martin) and Miller Kopp (Northwestern) should have the inside track to starting roles at the beginning of the season. Stewart can shoot the crap out of the ball and flat-out score, but the concern with him is the fact he’s never played for a competitive basketball team. In 2018 Stewart was one of the best players on Kevin Stallings’s famous 0-18 ACC Pitt squad, and Stewart’s 2019-20 UTM squad went just 9-20 (5-13). If Stewart doesn’t find a starting spot right away, he can be used as instant offense off the pine behind a guy like Galloway or Phinisee. Kopp comes to IU by way of Northwestern where he was a 3-year starter. At 6’7” Kopp offers good size on the wing, shooting, and a versatile offensive skillset.
Freshman Tamar Bates offers the most upside of the potential wing starters. Bates sprinted up the recruiting ranks this offseason, ultimately ending up as a 5-star prospect. Hailing from IMG Academy, Bates is a lanky, athletic wing with a smooth lefty stroke and sticky handle. “Scoop” will almost certainly find a role in the IU rotation whether it be as a starter or key piece off the bench.
Woodson’s remaining scholarship players reside in the frontcourt. Former 4-star forward Jordan Geronimo, an athletic and long prospect with a 40-inch vertical and 7’1” wingspan, might be the most freakish physical specimen on the roster. He’s competing for time in a crowded frontline, but he has clear potential to eventually breakout and become a key player for the Hoosiers. South Florida transfer Michael Durr, a mountain of a man at 7’0” 250 lbs., was committed to Virginia Tech before switching his allegiance to Woodson. Durr was among the four best rebounders in the AAC on both sides of the floor last season and offers interior resistance on the defensive end. Freshman Logan Duncomb, a top-70 recruit, is a year or two away from consistent contribution, but he has the pedigree to make an impact if called upon.
Indiana struggled on the defensive side of the ball in 2020-21, ranking just 12th in the Big Ten in adjusted efficiency. Miller packed it in and played a half-court style focused on slowing down his opponent. It’s likely we see a little more pressure from Woodson, whether in the half or full court, and he has a deeper roster than Miller with which to implement a more aggressive defense. Johnson will be a nice addition on the perimeter defensively, and Durr can provide key minutes behind TJD and/or Thompson inside.
Bottom Line: Indiana has the talent to win the Big Ten next season, but it will come down to Woodson’s ability to transition from the NBA to the college ranks, and his team’s ability to adjust to his style of play, defend, and shoot the ball. I’m a believer in Woodson this season; the Hoosiers should enjoy their best year since Tom Crean’s 2015 Sweet Sixteen squad and compete for a top seed in March.