-Jim Root

Preseason Predictions

Player of the Year: Azar Swain, Sr., Yale
Coach of the Year: Steve Donahue, Penn
Newcomer of the Year: Brendan Barry, R Sr., Dartmouth
Freshman of the Year: Louis Lesmond, Harvard

Tier 1

1. Yale

Key Returners: Azar Swain, Matthue Cotton, Jalen Gabbidon, August Mahoney, Eze Dike
Key Losses: Jordan Bruner (transfer), Paul Atkinson (transfer), Eric Monroe
Key Newcomers: Yussif Basa-Ama, Yassine Gharram, Jack Molloy, Matt Knowling, Bez Mbeng, Luke Kolaja, Teo Rice

Lineup:

Outlook: For a while after the turn of the millennium, the Ivy League was incredibly cyclical in its champions, with one school typically seizing supremacy for a short time:

Princeton won or shared three of four titles from 2001-04
Penn won three straight from 2005-07
Cornell won three straight from 2008-10
Harvard won or shared five straight from 2011-2015

Recently, the conference has seen as much balance as ever before. Even so, these Yale Bulldogs have won or shared four of the last six titles, an impressive feat considering the arms race among the terrific top four. The Bulldogs have won in a variety of ways, but the one constant has been James Jones on the sidelines. Now entering his 23rd season in New Haven, Jones has really hit a groove, going 63-21 (75.0%) in Ivy play over the past six seasons, and he’s now the second winningest coach in Ivy League history (a long ways behind one Pete Carril).

To continue that dominance, Yale will rely on a stacked wing rotation and hope key contributors emerge from a menagerie of unproven options. The star is Azar Swain, one of the best high-volume perimeter shooters in the entire country. Swain plays with a well-earned innate confidence and has evolved into an outstanding pick-and-roll scorer. You simply cannot give him even an inch of space:

“Swagger Swain,” a nickname I just made up, is still best served looking for his own offense, though, and smart opponents will force him to make reads and pass against shifting defenses. Eric Monroe evolved into a steady playmaker at the point guard spot, and the offense struggled when he sat, forcing Swain to slide over to point guard (the defense is almost all 3P variance, but it’s a major drop too):

Thus, keeping Swain off the ball should be a major priority for Jones – except that the point guard options are as unproven as the “Earth is flat” philosophy. Eze Dike is the only one with any game experience, and even he has barely seen the floor. He has at least practiced in the system, though so he likely gets first crack at it over Yassine Gharram and true freshmen Bez Mbeng and Teo Rice. To my eye, though, Gharram should be the starter by year’s end: he’s a strong, ambidextrous driver with tight handle and a low center of gravity, and he played for a California powerhouse at Foothills Christian (coached by TJ Leaf’s dad).

The rest of the aforementioned wing rotation should provide plenty of offensive pop. Matthue Cotton is a 6’5 lefty who can score at all three levels, and his size makes him a tough matchup. Jalen Gabbidon is a mostly a slasher with a burgeoning jumper, but his prime value comes from his elite defensive versatility; he shared Ivy Defensive Player of the Year honors back in 2020. For more shooting, Jones can turn to August Mahoney, a sniper who came on strong in February of 2020 that should spread the floor well around the Bulldogs’ other action.

Like the point guard spot, the frontcourt rotation poses some pointed questions. Jones’ teams have been dominant on the glass for years, but interior defense and scoring will be left to a cadre of unknowns after stars Jordan Bruner and Paul Atkinson left to be starters at Alabama and Notre Dame, respectively. Wyatt Yess was supposed to be the most experienced option, but he has vanished without a trace from the official roster, leaving Jameel Alausa and his 286 career minutes as the elder statesman. Other veterans EJ Jarvis, Isaiah Kelly, and Jake Lanford have been in the program since 2019, but the real upside lies with the newcomers who have yet to put on a Yale uniform.

Fluid Canadian Yussif Basa-Ama is the headliner, a southpaw with tremendous length and athleticism. He’s still somewhat thin, but his ceiling is sky-high, and he may force his way onto the floor right away, particularly due to his defensive potential. The same could be said of Jack Molloy and Luke Kolaja, both true freshmen hailing from outstanding prep programs (Molloy was at Northfield Mount Hermon and the Hotchkiss School, Kolaja was at Blair Academy). They’re both built for immediate action, and Molloy’s ball skills could quickly appeal to Jones (he grew a couple inches late in his HS career).

Jones’ teams are well-known for their fantastic ball movement and patient shot selection, meticulously picking apart half court defenses until an opening emerges. The shot selection rules do not really apply to an efficient gunner like Swain, but the rest of the roster should adopt that identity (albeit with some hiccups due to youth). Considering the strength of the roster, it will be interesting to see if Jones is flexible with his lineups, a.k.a. going small with Cotton or Gabbidon manning the nominal power forward spot. He did that with Miye Oni back in 2018, so it’s definitely not off the table.

Bottom Line: Yale might – might – have the best player (Swain) and the best coach in the conference, giving them a leg up in a league totally up for grabs after the year off. Even if you prefer one of the alternatives, the Bulldogs’ combo is outstanding, and with Cotton and Gabbidon manning the wings, Yale has solid complementary options, as well. A 5th Ivy title in seven years is within reach, but given the uncertainty surrounding this conference, your guess is as good as mine.

2. Penn

Key Returners: Jordan Dingle, Max Martz, Bryce Washington, Lucas Monroe, Michael Wang (injury), Jelani Williams (injury)
Key Losses: AJ Brodeur, Devon Goodman, Ryan Betley (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Michael Moshkovitz (JUCO), Clark Slajchert, Colin Chambers, Reese McMullen, Gus Larson, Eddie Holland III

Lineup:

Outlook: After the entire conference spent the 2020-21 season in the freezer, sorting out the Ivy is already a massive headache. Penn takes that to an extreme, though, sporting an entire starting lineup’s worth of players who essentially have not played basketball since 2018-19 (or earlier):

G Bryce Washington played a key role as a freshman floor spacer, knocking down 51 triples at 39.8%. He managed just eight appearances as a sophomore, though, before succumbing to a wrist injury.
G Jonah Charles was a highly-regarded recruit from Rutgers Prep who was in line to start in 2019-20 had he not missed the season with a foot injury (per Coach Steve Donahue in the 2020-21 version of Blue Ribbon).
G Jelani Williams has somehow not played since 2016-17 thanks to three consecutive ACL surgeries and the pandemic.
PF Michael Wang might be the most talented big man in the league, but he sat out of the 2019-20 campaign after having microfracture surgery on his knee.
C Max Lorca-Lloyd, the program’s best-ever recruit per 247 Sports, was buried behind Ivy Co-POY AJ Brodeur.

The last time these fellas hooped, Tony Bennett was still a postseason choker who lost to a 16-seed. That feels like forever ago, which is why prognosticating this team is so damn hard!

Fortunately, Penn does have some consistency elsewhere, and two rising star sophomores should maintain a solid floor for the Quakers. Jordan Dingle is Penn’s resident Ivy Player of the Year candidate, a fire hydrant of a guard with a smooth shooting stroke. Donahue has not run much pick-and-roll in the past, but Dingle proved to be a master of that action as a freshman, ranking in the 91st percentile as a scorer and 75th percentile as a passer (Synergy). This patience is beyond his years:

If Donahue cannot find an adequate proxy for Brodeur’s playmaking (more on that in a second), leaning more into a Dingle-based attack is a perfectly viable alternative.

Up front, Max Martz quickly became a “cannot take him off the floor” piece thanks to his lights-out shooting and intelligent defense. After not starting consistently until February, he played 30+ minutes in eight of the Quakers’ final nine contests. Depending on how Wang looks after so much time off, those two may step into clear alpha roles.

The most pressing issue for Penn is replacing the utterly irreplaceable Brodeur, a foundational piece on both ends of the floor. He rarely left the court in competitive games, as Coach Donahue ran the entire offense through Brodeur on the block or at the top of the key. He could score 1v1 inside, forcing foes to send double-teams, and his dazzling passing vision sliced up poor rotations (at 6’7, he led the Ivy in assist rate). Plus, he could knock down outside shots and deftly hit cutters in stride. Defensively, he had outstanding instincts and protected the rim with great timing and length.

So, uh, who replaces that? Well, no one can do it all, but a healthy Wang would be a major boon. He can stroke it from the outside, and his floor game might be the closest thing to Brodeur’s. Lorca-Lloyd can replicate the rim protection side with his anticipation and length, and if his perimeter jumper translates, Penn will have exquisite spacing. The closest facsimile to Brodeur, though, might be JUCO transfer Michael Moshkovitz, a stat sheet stuffer at Kankakee College (15.5 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 5.7 APG). Making these kinds of reads/deliveries will earn him minutes:

The Israeli native has the game, but stepping up so far in competition could be a hurdle, especially on the defensive end.

If healthy, Donahue will have a ton of choices to make with the rotation, many of which will be of the “offense vs. defense” variety. Lucas Monroe has plenty of malleability on the defensive end, but he cramps spacing on the other end. Washington and Williams have the size to be impactful in Donahue’s man-to-man, but Washington is more of a shooter, and Williams’ athleticism may have been sapped by three consecutive ACL injuries. If Donahue wants to lean heavily into the offensive side of the ball, he can play Dingle and Clark Slajchert together as dual ball-handlers and scorers, but Slajchert’s size at 6’1 could limit his contributions on D. Charles is highly intriguing as a two-way guy, but again – who knows after his foot injury.

The incoming freshman class has some promising long-term prospects – Reece McMullen and Eddie Holland III in particular – but it’s likely a bad thing (read: injury bug) if they have to clock significant minutes this year.

Bottom Line: Outside of Harvard, Penn might have the most talent in the Ivy League; the problem is that injuries are a red flag large enough to cover the entire state of Pennsylvania. If Wang, Williams, Charles, and Washington (hell, even three of the four) can play the whole season, Penn could rise to the top of the league. If they all spend more time on the training table than the hardwood, then Brown could pip the Quakers for a top four spot. Donahue has dominated the Ivy before with skill-rich rosters (see: Cornell torching the league from 2008-10, Penn in 2018), but the range of outcomes here is gargantuan.

3. Princeton

Key Returners: Jaelin Llewellyn, Drew Friberg, Ethan Wright, Ryan Langborg, Tosan Evbuomwan
Key Losses: Richmond Aririguzoh, Ryan Schwieger, Jerome Desrosiers, Jose Morales
Key Newcomers: Mason Hooks, Levi Adebayo, Zach Martini, Garrett Johnson, Blake Peters, Darius Gakwasi

Lineup:

Outlook: In a league where no one has played a Division I basketball game in 18 months (save for a couple transfers), causing rampant roster turnover throughout the league, Princeton may have a slight advantage over its peers. The Tigers return the most minutes and possession minutes (weighted by usage) in the entire league, and outside of Yale’s key wing trio, it’s not particularly close:

The league as a whole has been ravaged, and the average returning minutes rate (40.5%) is a cool 32nd out of 32 conferences – far below the national average of 63.0% (per Bart Torvik). Can Princeton take advantage of that edge and rise back into the dominance of 2016 and 2017? Perhaps not, but with a star guard in Jaelin Llewellyn and several solid pieces around him, Coach Mitch Henderson and the Tigers should be in the conversation.

Llewellyn is the clear alpha here, a former top 100 recruit who has started every game of his Tiger career. He’s devastating off the bounce, and his perimeter shooting touch finally came around in Ivy play in 2020, knocking down 36.4% of his 77 triples. His assist numbers are deflated by the decentralized Princeton system, but he’s a dynamic scorer that averaged 20.8 PPG during the final six games of his sophomore campaign.

As for that system, it’s a two-sided coin for Llewellyn. The excellent spacing gives him plenty of room to probe and knife into gaps; per Shot Quality, Princeton ranked 44th in spacing in 2020. However, the passing duties are exceedingly democratic. If Llewellyn played a ball-dominant role in a pick-and-roll attack, he could put up an 18 PPG, 6 APG season – per Synergy, he ranked in the 86th percentile nationally as a PnR scorer, but the offense has rarely turned to that in the past.

Instead, Henderson recruits skill all over the roster, loading up with shooting and smart ball movers who know how to cut and feed cutters. Do-everything wing Ryan Scwhieger and physical big man Richmond Aririguzoh shared playmaking duties with Llewellyn in 2020, but with both gone, Henderson must uncover a couple new offensive hubs. Finding a post option to replace Aririguzoh is especially critical, as the Tigers constantly play through the block:

There’s no “obvious” answer here, though Tosan Evbuomwan at least has the size and got some quality run as a freshman (started 18 games). He flashed some solid skills inside, and he spent some of the time off playing for Great Britain in multiple competitions. Other options include Keeshawn Kellman and Jacob O’Connell, both little-used freshmen in ’19-20, and 2020 recruit Mason Hooks, a 3-star wide-body from California. Hooks has the requisite skill set, but his lack of experience is concerning in such a timing- and read-based offense. If no one emerges as a real scoring/passing dual threat, then perhaps we’ll see Llewellyn unleashed a little more.

Fortunately for Henderson, the weapons around the perimeter are more proven. Drew Friberg, Ethan Wright, and Ryan Langborg all displayed impressive shooting touch during the Tigers’ last campaign, a crucial aspect for Henderson, whose teams have consistently ranked in the top 40 nationally in 3PA rate. Friberg’s size allows Princeton to spread the court without sacrificing much on the other end, and Wright flashed some star potential as a sophomore, so if he takes a leap in consistency, he could push for all-conference honors. Max Johns is a depth piece but brings zero shooting to the table, potentially opening the door for incoming sniper Blake Peters to pip some minutes.

The defensive end has always been more of a struggle for the Tigers, somewhat unsurprising given the player archetype Henderson targets. Like most Ivy squads, Princeton’s man-to-man emphasizes not fouling and dominating the defensive glass, but Henderson’s best squads on this end also extend on the perimeter and pester ball-handlers. Outside of Llewellyn and Johns, the returning core lacks that kind of zest, so newcomers like Levi Adebayo and Darius Gakwasi may be asked to contribute thanks to their length and versatility.

Bottom Line: The top five teams all have a Player of the Year candidate, making perhaps the easiest “Preseason First Team All-Conference” selection in the country, and quite a bit of Princeton’s ceiling will be decided by Llewellyn’s play. Sneakily, the more important saga is the interior development of Evbuomwan and Hooks as offensive linchpins, because Henderson’s system craves playmakers in the frontcourt. The defense likely will not elevate above “adequate,” so a humming offense will need to be the Tigers’ differentiator.

4. Harvard

Key Returners: Noah Kirkwood, Chris Ledlum, Mason Forbes, Idan Tretout, Spencer Freedman (injury)
Key Losses: Bryce Aiken, Seth Towns, Robert Baker, Chris Lewis, Christian Juzang, Rio Haskett, Justin Bassey, Danilo Djuricic
Key Newcomers: Justice Ajogbor, Josh Hemmings, Louis Lesmond, Bennett Pitcher, Tyler Simon, Denham Wojcik

Lineup:

Outlook: The talent waterfall continues to cascade in Cambridge despite a lost season. Tommy Amaker has been a recruiting whiz during his time with the Crimson, and he has already secured the commitment of a fringe 4-star in the 2022 class, Chisom Okpara. Okpara will only add to the embarrassment of riches Amaker has amassed in Massachusetts – the current roster contains the following:

2021 class (incoming freshman): four 3-star recruits by 247 consensus – SG Louie Lesmond, C Bennett Pitcher, CG Tyler Simon, PG Denham Wojcik
2020 class (sophomores who have yet to play): two 3-star recruits by 247 consensus – C Justice Ajogbor, PF Josh Hemmings
2019 class: one 4-star recruit – SF Chris Ledlum; four 3-star recruits – SG Luka Sakota, SG Idan Tretout, C Ciaran Brayboy, PF Tommy O’Neill

2018 class: one 4-star recruit – SF Noah Kirkwood; three 3-star recruits – PF Mason Forbes, PG Spencer Freedman, SF Kale Catchings

*Exhales* goodness gracious!

The Ivy simply does not attract that kind of talent on a consistent, year-after-year basis, giving Amaker a war chest of assets with which to deploy against Ivy foes. That has helped him to a pristine 126-56 record (69.2%) in league play over 13 seasons (take out his first two “build” years, and that jumps to 117-37, 76.0%).

So…how the heck is this team ranked 4th?

For one, the other Ivies have started to see some gains on the recruiting trail, ramping up their own talent levels to at least get in the same ballpark as the Crimson. And two, this team is as unproven as any Amaker squad has been since his 2016 tumble to 6-8 in Ivy play, his only sub-.500 record since 2009. Only Kirkwood and Ledlum have played real minutes, and without any sort of development last year (nearly the entire team was away from campus, which was not universally the case in the Ivy), that makes the actual college projections for many players cloudy.

Some clear advantages still exist, though. Amaker’s ability to bring in high-level athletes to a conference often bereft of them has allowed the Crimson to dominate the paint, particularly on defense. His teams have ranked in the top 100 in block rate for seven straight seasons (and 10 of the last 11), creating an impenetrable wall at the rim. Thanks to the departed tag team of Chris Lewis and Robert Baker, the 2020 version of Harvard ranked 7th in the entire country in FG% allowed at the rim (Hoop-Math).

Though the Lewis/Baker duo is gone, the cupboard remains stocked with versatile size. Forbes and Ajogbor can play together or platoon at center, each offering a long and bouncy option inside, and Amaker can roll out some terrifyingly large and athletic lineups with those two plus Kirkwood (6’7, 215 lbs.) and Ledlum (6’6, 225) on the wings. Tretout, Catchings, and Hemmings add to the seemingly-limitless options in Amaker’s arsenal. The sheer size and strength of Harvard’s roster should set a solid baseline on the defensive end.

The offensive end has been where the Crimson have been more up and down through the years. Turnovers and sloppy decision-making have plagued them for years, and concerningly, this squad’s clear deficiency lies at the point guard spot. Freedman has talent but has seen injuries wreck his career (per Blue Ribbon, he has played one (1) minute of competitive basketball in the past 33 months), so it’s hard to bank on him for major contributions. If he can get on the court consistently, he should be a steady ball-handler and shooter, but if not, that leaves Wojcik, Simon, and Lesmond as the main options – none of whom have logged time in a collegiate game yet.

Wojcik is the purest “lead guard” of the bunch, but even he is probably most comfortable raining in jumpers than setting the table for others. Lesmond earned solid minutes for France’s FIBA U19 team this summer, but again – he wants to score. The same goes for Tretout, who atleast earned some clock late in 2020.

As a result, Kirkwood may actually get the keys to the car, amping up what should be a Player of the Year-caliber campaign for the fungible Canadian. He can score or distribute in ball screens using his admirable patience and considerable strength, a crucial attribute in Amaker’s spread attack:

Per Synergy, Kirkwood ranked in the 75th percentile as a scorer and 65th as a passer out of PnR actions, and his size, shooting, and ball skills have made him a fringe NBA prospect. Unfortunately, he encapsulates the Crimson’s overall struggles taking care of the ball: in two seasons, he has 119 assists to 159 turnovers. Ledlum is an aggressive matchup problem, but he had the same issue as a rookie (21 assists, 47 turnovers).

Harvard also ran a ton of post up sets back in 2019-20, but those were almost exclusively for Lewis (166 of the team’s 227 possessions, next highest was Kirkwood at 19, per Synergy). Forbes, Ajogbor, or even the monstrous Pitcher could develop into solid options inside, but none will be the same type of “go get a bucket” threat that Lewis was.

Bottom Line: It’s hard to envision this team dropping out of the top half of the league considering how high the overall talent level is. However, Amaker needs to figure out his team’s incessant turnover problems: the Crimson have ranked 335, 299, 265, and 335 in TO rate the last four years of actual games. Without clear ball-handling options, that appears dicey. Kirkwood, Ledlum, and the intimidating defense keep the floor high, but if the offense cannot score efficiently, then Yale, Penn, and Princeton could have a leg up on Amaker’s crew.

Tier 2

5. Brown

Key Returners: Tamenang Choh, Jaylan Gainey, Dan Friday, David Mitchell, Perry Cowan
Key Losses: Brandon Anderson, Zach Hunsaker, Joshua Howard, Matt DeWolf
Key Newcomers: Paxson Wojcik (Loyola-Chicago), Noah Meren (Division III), Nana Owusu-Anane, Tyler Brown (JUCO), Malachi Ndur, Kino Lilly, Zachary Taylor, Prince Kushinda

Lineup:

Outlook: Since the Ivy instituted a postseason tournament for the league’s top four finishers, 15 of the 16 bids have gone to the league’s “top four” – aka the four schools I have ranked 1-4 in these projections. Only 2018 Cornell managed to crack into that group (while going just 6-8 in Ivy play – what happened, Princeton?!), illustrating just how stark the divide has been in recent years between the “haves” and the “have-nots.” If someone is going to rise up from the Ivy proletariats to challenge that supremacy this year, it will almost certainly be these Brown Bears.

In his 10th year in charge, Mike Martin has established a somewhat surprising identity: the Bears have the makings of a defensive powerhouse (well, in Ivy terms). Martin has recruited impressive size and versatility all across the roster, most notably in reigning Defensive Player of the Year Jaylan Gainey (who shared the award with Yale’s Jalen Gabbidon), a shot-swatting menace who really emerged during league play. Considering the roster he’s assembled, Martin knows where his bread will be buttered:

“We had the best overall defense in the conference in 2018-19, adjusted for strength of competition…I think our defense has been something that we’ve realized is going to be our identity and our path to being Ivy League champions.” – Martin to Blue Ribbon in the 2020-21 edition

Gainey’s presence as an elite rim protector – he ranked 11th nationally in block rate back in 2019-20 – allows Brown to play an aggressive, harassing style, funneling opponents towards the bouncy paint presence. That style differs greatly from the Bears’ Ivy brethren, most of whom compensate for a lack of athleticism by deploying a much more conservative alignment. Martin noted as much in that same Blue Ribbon preview:

“We’re a little unique in how we play defensively as compared to some of our peers in the league. Whenever you can be different, I think that’s good. We’re a little bit different.” - Martin

When you have the kind of versatile defenders at your disposal that Martin does, playing with aggression makes sense. All-conference forward Tamenang Choh is back as a grad student, and he provides one option in that respect, but the Bears’ true shut-down blanket is David Mitchell, a 6’6 destroyer who can swallow up all five positions. Martin consistently threw Mitchell at the opponent’s best (or hottest) offensive option, and he ultimately earned a starting gig in the final two games of 2020. The rotation should also feature touted rookie Nana Owusu-Anane, an active Canadian big man who oozes upside and showed well for a loaded FIBA U19 squad this offseason.

A potential starting backcourt of Dan Friday (6’4, 225 pounds) and Perry Cowan (6’4, 205) only adds to the size/strength/position-less nature of the lineup, and both earned valuable minutes as freshmen. Even if Martin goes with transfer Paxson Wojcik for offensive purposes, that’s a guard who played defense under Porter Moser, so the drop-off will not be too severe.

Speaking of offense, Brown is also vastly different from its conference foes on that end. The below graphic shows the entire Ivy League’s offensive Four Factors, where shooting and taking care of the ball are almost universally emphasized, while the offensive glass and charity stripe are ignored – except at Brown (note: Harvard excluded, because the crazy talent Amaker gets enables them to play differently):

Gainey, Mitchell, and Choh excel on the offensive glass, overwhelming smaller and less physical frontcourts; Owusu-Anane and fellow Canadian Malachi Ndur should supplement this group nicely. The perimeter shooting needs a boost from Wojcik and Noah Meren, because the Bears’ “volleyball on the glass” strategy is not always tenable against disciplined Ivy defenses.

Martin, an Ivy lifer (played at Brown, assisted at Brown and Penn before getting the Brown head job), still runs a system similar to his counterparts, though. The Bears will run a ton of motion off the ball, with plenty of screening and cutting meant to occupy defenders and wear them down over the course of possessions. Choh serves as a facilitating hub from all over the court, capable of creating for himself or hitting cutters. Friday, JUCO transfer Tyler Brown, and freshman Kino Lilly will be asked to replace the creation of Brandon Anderson, an unenviable task despite the departed guard’s inefficiencies as a shooter and finisher.

Bottom Line: Because of the way Martin built the roster, the Bears face the opposite conundrum of most of their Ivy adversaries: can the offense score efficiently enough to not ruin what should be an outstanding defense? With Gainey, Choh, and Mitchell back, Brown should remain stout inside and malleable matchup-wise, but unless more shooting emerges via Wojcik, Meren, and internal improvement, the Bears will be fighting an uphill battle. Rest assured, though: the Bears will be lurking if any of the top four experiences any slippage whatsoever.

6. Dartmouth

Key Returners: Aaryn Rai, Taurus Samuels, Wes Slajchert, Garrison Wade
Key Losses: Chris Knight, James Foye, Ian Sistare, Trevon Ary-Turner
Key Newcomers: Brendan Barry (Temple), Izaiah Robinson, Jaren Johnson, Cade Haskins, Robert McRae III

Lineup:

Outlook: The cancellation of all Ivy basketball last season certainly frustrated plenty of people, but Dartmouth coach David McLaughlin had to be among those most perturbed. The would-be fifth-year coach had improved Dartmouth’s KenPom ranking in every season so far, building some momentum at a program that has long lacked any hint of it. The Big Green were not quite a winning Ivy squad, but they had elevated to a far more competitive level:

*Green line is overall ranking, solid line is offense, dotted line is defense*

Maintaining that ascendant trajectory would have been a major challenge – star forward Chris Knight had already entered the transfer portal after tearing his Achilles, unable to continue his Dartmouth career after earning an undergraduate degree – but still, it’s as Sir Isaac Newton says: an object at rest tends to stay at rest, and an object in motion stays in motion unless acted upon by an outside force.

Coronavirus and Knight’s injury were those outside forces, leaving McLaughlin to pick up the pieces. His Dartmouth teams have always had a go-to weapon in the paint – Knight, Evan Boudreaux – and he now must construct a system that likely lacks the same kind of big man backbone.

The current candidates are immensely unproven. Garrison Wade was a stretch forward who didn’t stretch anything (7-of-35 from deep, 20.0%), while fellow bigs Nate Ogbu and Dame Adelekun barely saw the floor. Both have impressive athleticism and racked up rebounds and blocks in high school, but they may be too raw to replicate that kind of production at this level. An intriguing possibility is Cam Krystkowiak, son of Utah coach emeritus Larry, who was a productive piece for a dominant Northfield Mount Hermon team back in 2018-19. Unfortunately, he is a junior yet to make his collegiate debut thanks to injuries and COVID, so he’s far from a sure bet.

Knight was a do-everything fulcrum on offense, but his absence might be felt even more severely on the defensive end, where he protected the rim and possessed the versatility to guard multiple positions (enjoy, Loyola/Drew Valentine). The on/off splits from his final campaign were telling:

The lack of quality depth behind him was obvious, and the forwards McLaughlin has added in the two years since – Serbians Dusan Neskovic and Nikola Dimitrijevic, Minnesotans Cade Haskins and Connor Christensen – do not scream “immediate impact.” McLaughlin covets defensive rebounds, so whoever distinguishes himself in that capacity will quickly get on his good side.

Ok, enough of the negativity, because at the very least, Dartmouth should have a (potentially) potent deadly four-out system. The free year afforded by COVID allowed for the return of Brendan Barry, a proven Ivy scorer and pinpoint marksman who has hit 188 collegiate triples at 44.7%. Given the roster construction, he should be the featured offensive weapon, and the slasher/shooter combination he forms with grad student Aaryn Rai will give the Big Green a fighting chance on most nights. The Canadian Rai is a matchup nightmare as a nominal power forward thanks to his ability to attack more plodding bigs in space.

The backcourt also features experienced options in PG Taurus Samuels, a quick but jumper-deficient driver, and wing Wes Slajchert, who I recall waxing poetic about in our 2018-19 Ivy preview. Unfortunately, his own jump shot has yet to arrive in Hanover, meaning his only value has been as a plus defender. I’ll blindly predict a surge in his 3P% this season; he’s too skilled to continue his frigid ways.

Like the frontcourt, depth will come from the mysterious underclassmen. South Kent graduate Izaiah Robinson was a volcanic scorer in the NEPSAC, an excellent high school league, and California natives Jaren Johnson and Robert McRae have a year in the program, but the most proven commodity might be Swedish import Romeo Myrthil, who put up solid numbers for his country’s FIBA U18 team back in 2019. Regardless, expect Samuels and Barry to play huge minutes this season.

Bottom Line: Barry’s prodigal son return from Temple should prevent McLaughlin from having to undergo a full rebuild, but as seen in the graphic in the intro, even prior boss Paul Cormier pulled Dartmouth to a brief peak of relevance. The key is maintaining that competitive level, as even a slight fade got Cormier fired back in 2016. Without a Knight or Boudreaux in the paint, McLaughlin will need to shift the offense’s focus, and building a competent defense is a real concern. Dartmouth should be better than its archrival Cornell and Columbia, but making the Ivy playoff (top four) may be out of reach.

Tier 3

7. Cornell

Key Returners: Jordan Jones, Dean Noll, Kobe Dickson, Greg Dolan, Marcus Filien
Key Losses: Jimmy Boeheim, Terrance McBride, Josh Warren, Bryan Knapp, Riley Voss
Key Newcomers: Sarju Patel (VMI), Nazir Williams, Isaiah Gray, Chris Manon, Darius Ervin, Sean Hansen, Evan Williams, Keller Boothby, Chris Cain

Lineup:

Outlook: I can only imagine the severe anguish felt by Cornell’s own Andy Bernard when the pandemic prompted the Big Red (and the rest of the Ivy League) to cancel its season. Such a devout alum — who even works for the university at the end of The Office’s run — surely is a season ticket holder, and not being able to pack Newman Arena or even watch the Big Red on television probably broke his heart.

Fortunately, Cornell and the Ivy are back in action this year, though actual on-court success may prove more elusive. The Big Red have not had a winning season in the Ivy League since 2010, when now-rival Steve Donahue engineered a Sweet 16 run and subsequently left for Boston College. Three key starters hit the transfer portal after the 2020-21 cancellation, leaving a distressingly unproven roster as Brian Earl enters year six (technically five, but I’m counting last year).

Earl is a Princeton disciple, having played there in college plus spent 10 years on staff under Sydney Johnson and Mitch Henderson. Thus, his offensive system mirrors that of the Tigers, spreading the floor with as much shooting as possible while often playing through a skilled big man surrounded by an array of cuts and screens. Who steps into that initiator role is a pressing concern: Kobe Dickson and Marcus Filien earned some reps back in 2020, but neither has shown the passing prowess to be an adept facilitator. That means a cadre of youngsters will have every shot at early minutes: Evan Williams (the non-bourbon version), Sean Hansen, Keller Boothby, Guy Ragland, and Chris Cain should all be in the mix.

At the very least, Dickson will play thanks to his interior finishing and rim protection abilities. Somewhat distressingly, though, he shot almost as well from the 3P line (36.4%) as the free throw line (37.0%). Filien’s role is less secure, depending on how the newcomers adapt to Earl’s system.

Whether Earl can find a frontcourt linchpin matters, but the brunt of the offense will still likely come from the backcourt. The wing duo of Jordan Jones and Sarju Patel will have plenty of opportunities off handoffs and screens, as both have the ability to knock down jumpers or dash to the rim. Jones, a lanky southpaw, offers legitimate wing size, while Patel should benefit from experience and familiarity in an Earl scheme. He spent two years playing for Brian’s brother Dan at VMI, and he’s now had to sit out two seasons in Ithaca thanks to COVID and the obsolete transfer rules. He should be used similarly to former Big Red guard Bryan Knapp, cutting off dribble handoffs in order to give him space to launch pull-up jumpers:

Dean Noll should comfortably slide in at point guard after playing a super-sub role in ’19-20, and Greg Dolan holds impressive potential as a wing sniper. Like the frontcourt, the guards will feature several college basketball newbies, with Isaiah Gray and Chris Manon the most likely to play immediately. Nazir Williams (South Kent) and Darius Ervin (Northfield Mount Hermon) both hail from prep powerhouses, potentially helping them earn minutes quickly. Ervin is one to watch: he’s a deadly scorer and was highly productive for a great team, but he lacks size at just 5’8.

Earl’s defenses have vacillated between “totally respectable” and “worst in the entire league,” presenting a wide but not altogether promising range of outcomes. He has shown to be the most willing purveyor of zones and pressing schemes in the conference, which at least presents different looks for foes, but it will still be an uphill battle to make the Big Red defense a strength. It would help if opponents’ 3P shooting landed closer to 2019 (33.7%) than 2020 (36.1%).

Bottom Line: Ivy basketball is back, but barring some surprises, I do not think we can say the same thing about Cornell as a top-half Ivy squad. Jones and Patel are a promising wing duo, and the backcourt definitely has some shooting and long-term upside, but the frontcourt and defense are concerningly unsettled. Earl is a smart basketball mind, but that’s a near-ubiquitous statement about Ivy bosses, so gaining a significant coaching edge will be a challenge. And unfortunately, most teams probably have more talent, as well. Keep your head up, Andy Bernard – at least you get to watch games this year!

8. Columbia

Key Returners: Ike Nweke, Maka Ellis, Cameron Shockley-Okeke, Asa Shannon
Key Losses: Mike Smith, Gabe Stefanini, Jack Forrest, Randy Brumant, Jake Killingsworth, Tai Bibbs, Joseph Smoyer
Key Newcomers: Patrick Harding (Bryant), Liam Murphy, Kobe Antwi, Zavian McLean, Josh Odunowo

Lineup:

Outlook: It’s been five years since Kyle Smith was in New York, and the prosperity of his reign has almost fully faded from view. Since taking over, Jim Engles has built the opposite of momentum, going 5-9 in Ivy play in each of his first three seasons before bottoming out to the tune of 1-13 in 2020. In fact, the 2020 Lions were one of the Ivy’s worst offerings in the past decade, per analytical rankings:

That was with a legitimate Big Ten guard in Mike Smith, so it’s highly unlikely that a year on the shelf solved the program’s issues, particularly with so few significant pieces back to build around.

Of course, roster turnover after such a dire campaign isn’t the worst thing. Only Ike Nweke and Maka Ellis have played significant roles in the past, leaving a host of unproven underclassmen and mysterious rookies to fill the majority of the Lion rotation.

Nweke will be especially vital considering the flaws that Engles’ last team faced. The Lions were beaten like a drum in the paint defensively and had no ability to get easy buckets on the other end, all marks of a team that utterly lacked any true interior presence. A younger Nweke was part of that issue, but with some time to develop, perhaps he can take strides forward as a scorer. At the very least, he was the only Lion to produce second chance opportunities, an area in which Columbia cratered as a team (348th in offensive rebound rate in ’19-20).

Engles tried to secure some reinforcements via Bryant transfer Patrick Harding, one of the country’s truly elite two-way rebounders. Still, the Lions have a severe lack of depth inside unless freshmen Jake Tavroff and Robbie Stankard are immediately ready to contribute. Columbia ranked 280th nationally in percentage of shots taken at the rim in 2020 (and 286th in FG% on such shots) while also never getting to the free throw line, and the big man rotation lacks the offensive threats to improve on that.

The scoring punch will have to come from the backcourt, where Ellis leads the way. He has only played in six competitive games since March of 2019, though, meaning the rust factor could loom large for the wing with touch. Cameron Shockley-Okeke and Asa Shannon got their tippy-toes wet as freshmen, but earning such little playing time for a team in desperate need of signs of future optimism does not bode well. Incoming recruits/“sophomores” Kobe Antwi, Zavian McLean, and Josh Odunowo should have the inside track at more minutes, but without any track record, they’ll compete on roughly even footing with the actual class of 2021.

If it’s possible, shot creation might be an even more perilous predicament. Eddie Turner has a shot at the starting point guard slot, but like Ellis, he barely played in 2019-20 due to injuries. The rest of the options are similarly bleak: Luke Bolster has done little in his college career and lacks athleticism, and true freshmen Jaden Cooper and Geronimo Rubio De La Rosa may take some time to acclimate to the college game. Engles’ offense runs a ton of dribble handoffs – nearly the most in the country with the dynamic Mike Smith running the show – but without off-the-bounce threats, opponents will have a relatively easy time defending those sets.

To find respectability, the Lions must hang their hat on defense, where Engles’ conservative man-to-man has actually been somewhat decent. Nweke and Harding should utterly dominate the defensive glass, and if the Lions can force foes to remain on the perimeter rather than slice through their soft interior defense, then they stand a fighting chance.

Bottom Line: If it sounds like I’m painting a bleak picture here, well, that’s mostly because I am. Few teams return less production in the entire country, and outside of Harding’s work on the glass, the newcomers enter with little fanfare. Engles did a bang-up job slowly turning NJIT into a respectable program, but he’s running out of time to do the same at Columbia.