-Matt Cox
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Bryce Aiken, Sr., Harvard
Coach of the Year: Dave McLaughlin, Dartmouth
Newcomer of the Year: Trevon Ary-Turner, R So., Dartmouth
Freshman of the Year: Jordan Dingle, Fr., Penn
Tier 1
1. Harvard
Key Returners: Bryce Aiken, Christian Juzang, Justin Bassey, Seth Towns, Chris Lewis, Noah Kirkwood
Key Losses: None
Key Newcomers: Chris Ledlum, Luka Sakota, Ciaran Brayboy, Idan Tretout, Tommy O'Neil
Lineup:
Outlook: To some basketball purists out there on the east coast, the Ivy League effectively spit in the face of tradition back in 2017, when it announced a postseason tournament would officially determine the league’s auto-bid representative. I stand with those purists and resented the Ivy’s decision to conform, but I have no room to moan and gripe - Tommy Amaker, the man who’s claimed a share of the Ivy League regular season title in each of the last two years, is the real victim here...
After a soul-crushing defeat at the hands of Penn in the inaugural Ivy League Tournament in 2018, Harvard checked in to the ‘Heartbreak Hotel’ again last March. Despite Bryce Aiken’s heroic performance in the semifinal bout against Yale, Harvard couldn’t keep up with the Bulldogs’ 97-point pace, which relegated the Crimson to college basketball’s kiddie pool (more commonly known as the NIT) for the second year in a row.
Now, armed with a roster dripping with high-major talent (again), Amaker and his senior triumvirate of Aiken, Seth Towns and Chris Lewis - the cornerstones of Harvard’s heralded 2016 recruiting class - will saddle up for one last ride, in hopes of getting punched by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee (a far more exclusive club than the Phoenix).
To contextualize just how talent-rich this team is, here’s a list of the projected 2019-20 roster and their respective recruiting rankings coming out of high school:
Harvard’s talent pool is head and shoulders above the rest of the Ivy, as contextualized by this aggregated weighted-average recruiting rating from at verbalcommits.com:
With Towns set to return to action after missing all of last season with a knee injury, the Aiken, Towns and Lewis trident will be a force to be reckoned with. During Towns’ tear through the Ivy back in 2017-18 (which earned him Ivy Player of the Year honors), the injury bug kept Aiken sidelined for all but four conference games. Point being, we’ve only witnessed brief spurts of this dynamic duo playing together, the bulk of which came during the incubation phases of their development back as freshmen in 2016-17. Aiken is a lethal scoring machine, while Towns’ has been appropriately described as the Ivy League’s Jayson Tatum (nickname credit to Mike Gribanov). Aiken’s explosiveness and Towns’ size / skill package will command constant defensive attention and proactive off-ball support, which should open up acres of space for Harvard’s supporting cast to score with relative ease. Lewis hangs his hat on the other end of the floor as the Crimson’s defensive quarterback, where his action figure frame and nimble feet act as a force field around the paint.
Thanks to Amaker’s superglue stickiness on the recruiting trail over the past three seasons, Aiken, Towns and Lewis will have ample assistance this year. In the backcourt, Aiken will likely be flanked by the sharpshooting Christian Juzang, who suffered an untimely injury down the stretch last year, which turned him into a shell of his true self. Juzang is best served playing off the ball, as he’s struggled in brief stretches as the lead guard and offensive initiator, so Aiken’s impending return should naturally shift Juzang into his comfort zone at the 2.
The burly Justin Bassey returns after starting 22 games last season, an athletic power wing who can fill a variety of different lineup needs (Bassey was actually the Crimson’s top rebounder last season on a per possession basis). Bassey and burgeoning star Noah Kirkwood, who took home the Ivy League Rookie of the Year hardware last season, headline a crowded wing depth chart loaded with versatility. Kale Catchings is cut from the same cloth as Kirkwood and also cracked the veteran-laden rotation last year, which begs the question as to how Amaker will juggle his crunch-time lineups this year. With Aiken, Towns and Lewis seemingly locks to be out there in high leverage situations, Amaker will need to determine which two of the Juzang, Kirkwood, Bassey and Catchings trio best fits with his ‘big 3’.
The depth up front behind Lewis is plentiful as well (though not as robust as the wing corps), with bouncy stretch-4 Danilo Djuricic (started 10 games last year), 6’10 Henry Welsh (started 4 games last year and 6’11 Robert Baker (started 10 games last year) all back in the fold.
If you’re overwhelmed with the laundry list of names I just spewed out above, keep in mind I haven’t even mentioned the marquee freshmen joining the party this year. That said, while more depth and optionality are desirable roster traits, this can become a double-edged sword when monkeying with too many lineup combinations, a minor issue Amaker wrestled with last season. The injury curse is partly to blame for this, but Amaker may be wise to consider being less democratic with how he apportions minutes. Finding a few go-to 5-man units, as opposed to shuffling guys in and out aimlessly, will promote on-floor chemistry and help all this individual talent sort out their individual roles and responsibilities.
Using hooplens.com, we can hone in on which option worked best last year. The data reveals that constructing optimal lineups around Aiken was most effective, which is best optimized with floor-spacers and less assertive complementary pieces. Specifically, a lineup recipe of Juzang (a low-usage sniper), Bassey (a jack-of-all-trades ‘glue guy’) and Baker (a floor-spacing big), along with Aiken and Lewis, worked wonders on both sides of the ball.
This lineup concoction struck the perfect balance between offensive floor spacing and defensive physicality. Granted, 125 possessions is a rather small sample size, and the reinsertion of Towns will inherently reduce the impact this lineup will have this season, assuming he’s cleared to go by the start of the season. Still, this should be documented as a benchmark for which Amaker can compare to as he searches for the optimal ‘lineup of doom’ this year.
Bottom Line: After two straight gut wrenching defeats on the doorstep of college basketball’s most coveted stage, I just can’t see the Crimson being denied again in 2020. The non-conference schedule doesn’t offer many Q1 or Q2 win opportunities, so Harvard will need to rack up a gaudy record by next March to be in the hunt for at-large contention, a much preferred route to the dance given their recurring Ivy League Tournament letdowns.
2. Penn
Key Returners: AJ Brodeur, Devon Goodman, Bryce Washington, Ryan Betley, Michael Wang
Key Losses: Max Rothschild, Antonio Woods, Jake Silpe
Key Newcomers: Jordan Dingle
Lineup:
Outlook: Folks, I present to you the Red and Blue, your 2018-19 Philly 5 champions…
Yeah I know, I had forgotten about that too - perhaps the weird second half tailspin that derailed Penn’s sizzling hot start to the 2018-19 campaign is to blame for my foggy memory. Whether it was injuries or just simple overachievement for the first two months of the year, there’s no definitive explanation for why the Quakers 'plateaued’ during conference play last season.
The good news is that Steve Donahue brings most of the band back for another crack at the Ivy League championship trophy, which will look real nice on his mantle next to the Philly-5 championship hardware. Harvard has a chance to go down as one of the most talented rosters any Ivy team has ever assembled, but I’ll bet money the Red and Blue are breathing down the Crimson’s neck in the Ivy League title race when March rolls around…
A big reason why is the return of AJ Brodeur, an unassuming assassin who’s seeking his third straight unanimous 1st team Ivy League selection. There’s zero flash to his game, exemplified by the fact that he still wears a throwback wristband on his left wrist, an accessory that went out of basketball style over a decade ago. Reminiscent of Jordan Bruner for Yale, Brodeur’s handle and vision open up a world of opportunities for Penn’s offense. He’s a known destroyer on the low block inside, but Donahue also brings him out to the perimeter to connect side-to-side ball reversals, which in turn sets up deceptive hand offs and sneaky back cuts in Penn’s pristine offensive movement. With the entire basketball universe gravitating toward pick-n-roll centric offenses, Penn’s system is a different beast - just refer to the chart below from Synergy.com, which shows the relative frequency of each play type compared to all other 353 Division-1 teams last season. The summation of ‘handoffs’, ‘cuts’, ‘off screens’ and ‘post ups’, most of which run through Brodeur, collectively account for ~33% of the Red and Blue’s offensive possessions, exemplifying the essence of Penn’s offense:
This style demands a different breed of guard, one with the ability to process multiple reads in a matter of seconds. This brain muscle is not often flexed by most guards littered across the country, most of whom are wired to play in pick-n-roll, but Devon Goodman knows the playbook like the back of his hand. Goodman was mentored alongside the now departed Antonio Woods, who formed the other half of a harmonious backcourt match last season. Woods’ ability to adapt his role on the fly after Ryan Betley went down for the season speaks volumes about his versatility, a quality that will be sorely missed in 2020, but what better time to reinsert Betley and his flamethrower jumper, which adds another All Ivy caliber bullet to the chamber.
The Brodeur, Betley and Goodman threesome will be aided by some promising talent coming through the pipeline, as Donahue’s managed to ‘keep up with the Jones’s’ in the race to match Harvard’s abundance of riches. Bryce Washington skipped his freshman year learning curve and immediately joined the starting brigade as a 3-point assassin (though, he did flame out down the stretch). Mater Dei, California import Michael Wang had a December to remember, which featured a takeover game against Miami FL (23 points in 27 minutes) along with three other double-digit performances against Villanova, La Salle and New Mexico. Wang may be the most talented player on the roster, but I’d expect Donahue to use him as a super-sub this season, which will likely make him overqualified as a 6th man.
The big question lies at the point guard position, which takes on a different meaning playing within the confines of Donahue’s offensive structure. After Jelani Williams reinjured his ACL earlier this summer in a workout, the primary offensive initiator job became vacant, but Donahue has already expressed plenty of faith in freshman Jordan Dingle (report quoted from the Philadelphia Inquirer).
“I have great confidence in the kid,” Donahue said. “I also think we’ve got a lot of experience around him, and we don’t rely on a typical system where the point guard runs the show and gets 200 assists. Our leading assist guy last year was [big man] AJ Brodeur. ... Everybody passes. dribbles and shoots, and I think Jordan can really do a good job in that system.”
Dingle was a prep standout in New Jersey, and comes in with a ‘college-ready’ frame at 6’3 200 pounds. Donahue will have to ease him in to the offense to avoid any substantial backcourt turbulence, but the support system around him is sound.
Bottom Line: There’s a reason the Red and Blue are included in this First Class tier (as noted above in the projected conference standings). Penn has all the ingredients to make another run at an Ivy League championship: 1) established and reliable leaders, 2) surging young talent, and 3) a well-fortified program foundation with a proven track record of success. As much as I’m drinking the Red and Blue kool-aid, I just can’t justify sliding Alan Boston’s alma-mater ahead of the Crimson in the top spot - regardless, it should be a photo finish that comes right down to the wire.
3. Princeton
Key Returners: Jaelin Llewellyn, Richmond Aririguzoh, Jerome Desrosiers, Ryan Schwieger, Sebastian Much
Key Losses: Myles Stephens
Key Newcomers: Ryan Langborg, Konrad Kiszka, Tosan Evbuomwan, Keeshawn Kellman, Jacob O'Connell
Lineup:
Outlook: Ok, last year was just flat out bizarre. A series of both fortunate and unfortunate events (though, most of them skewed towards the unfortunate end of the spectrum) sent the Princeton Tigers down a runaway mine shaft with no foresight as to what was coming around each and every turn:
Long range sniper Devin Cannady was suspended for a run in with the law, which culminated in his eventual departure from the team, gutting the Tigers’ of their lone 3-point shooting threat
Canadian import and 4-star prized recruit Jaelin Llewellyn battled injuries all season long, a valid excuse for a subzero 35% effective field goal percentage
Richmond Aririguzoh randomly leapfrogged Sebastian Much on the depth chart, and quickly blossomed into one of the Ivy’s best big men after riding the pine for his first two years
Ryan Schwieger underwent a similar transformation, from sporadic contributor to bonafide bucket getter, after Cannady’s suspension parted the seas for his opportunity to shine
All of these moving parts explains the literal ebb and flow nature of the Tigers’ 2018-19 campaign:
When the dust finally settled, Princeton checked in with a 16-11 overall record (8-6 in the Ivy), a fitting “mean” conclusion to a season riddled with more volatility than a penny stock.
So, where does that leave the Tigers’ 2019-20 prognosis?
The highly decorated two-way star Myles Stephens defects, but everyone else of importance is back to hit the reset button. With seemingly everyone on the roster in a shooting rut last year, the Tigers had to compensate by digging in defensively to grind out wins. Stephens was the fulcrum of the perimeter defense, so replacing his ball hawking won’t be easy, but the backstop behind the outer layer is ironclad. Aririguzoh is the epicenter, once an unknown reserve and sparingly used backup to Much. A physical specimen at 6’9 230, Aririguzoh lifted Princeton’s defense to new heights, batting away anything that came near the rim, while also sliding out to the perimeter to contest shots (a necessary skill in the Ivy League with so many forwards being able to stroke it from deep).
Mitch Henderson historically gravitates forwards who can leak out beyond the 3-point line to create a 5-out offensive structure, but Aririguzoh is a black sheep relative to the typical Princeton big DNA. Per hoop-math.com, 93% of Aririguzoh’s shots last year were at the rim, an indicator of where he does the bulk of his damage. Jerome Desrosiers, on the other hand, more closely resembles Henderson’s preferred archetype, a physical 6’7 positonless ‘tweener’ who rebounds like a center defensively, but undergoes a personality change on the other side of the ball. Desrosiers was oddly anemic finishing inside the arc last year, but his efficiency is propped up by a deadeye long range jumper. This imbalance explains his tendency to lurk outside the 3-point arc, often waiting for a sliver of air space to get off his shot. Together, the Aririguzoh / Derosiers duo is a yin and yang type pairing on offense and a destructive glass eating tandem on defense. With all due respect to Sebastian Much and 6’10 Will Gladson, there’s a reason Henderson took a fancy to this marriage last season:
With the interior cemented in stone, Princeton should once again boast one of the stingiest defenses in the Ivy. The offense has to catch up, but I’m inclined to think it will with point guard prodigy Jaelin Llewellyn about to enter the sophomore year launch pad. We here at the Weave raved about Llewellyn’s potential last season, a former top-100 recruit from the Toronto area and a unicorn-type talent for Princeton basketball. While injuries are partially to blame for his blasphemous shooting splits, Llewellyn’s scoring and shooting confidence slowly dwindled as the season dragged on. He left no doubt about his ability to conduct the offense, and sprinkled in flashes of jaw-dropping dribble drives and dimes. The key will be Llewellyn’s ability to hone that outside jumper - as alluded to earlier, Henderson will be already be playing one non-shooter in Aririguzoh for significant stretches of time, so he can’t afford another brick-layer lingering on the perimeter.
Those shooting concerns don’t pertain to human propane tank Ryan Schwieger, who exploded onto the scene late in the year. After playing 14 total minutes during a 3-game span in mid-February, Schwieger went off for three straight 20-point outbursts before lingering concussion symptoms effectively ended his season shortly after. As a team, Princeton posted an artic-cold 28% 3-point shooting percentage as a team from the land of plenty during league play last year, but Schwieger was the lone outlier. His impending return as a precise long range sniper is critical to restoring Princeton’s offense back to usual standards.
The third guard spot is a bit of a mystery at this juncture, but both Ethan Wright or Max Johns earned some spot starts over the final month of the season. They’re both touted as pure shooters, but were also plagued by the team-wide shooting infection last season. Along with Llewellyn and shifty backup point guard Jose Morales, this quartet HAS to knock down shots for Princeton’s offense to come alive in 2020.
Bottom Line: The Tigers will still boast a stout defensive unit this season, but the loss of Stephens shifts the burden back to the Princeton shooters to cash in on their long range opportunities. Aririguzoh is quietly emerging as a reliable source of offense inside, but the guards and wings must provide some gravitational pull, not just to give Aririguzoh room to operate inside, but to set up their off-the-ball back cuts and dives.
Ultimately, it comes down to Llewellyn and Schwieger, each of whom now have a little more on their plate of offensive responsibilities. Llewellyn’s playmaking and Schwieger’s shotmaking can alter the trajectory of Princeton’s offensive efficiency, and if the lightbulb flicks on, Princeton has a high-end outcome that could surpass Penn and maybeeeee Harvard, but those scenarios feel a bit ambitious.
Tier 2
4. Yale
Key Returners: Jordan Bruner, Paul Atkinson, Azar Swain
Key Losses: Miye Oni, Alex Copeland, Blake Reynolds, Trey Phills
Key Newcomers: EJ Jarvis, August Mahoney
Lineup:
Outlook: With the arms race for talent sparked by Tommy Amaker’s recruiting vacuum at Harvard, a premium has been placed on recruiting all across the league. James Jones has outpaced his coaching counterparts in attracting top-tier talent, which has kept Yale on par with their arch rival in Cambridge over the last few seasons. Led by a bonafide pro prospect in Miye Oni last year, the Bulldogs got the last laugh over the Crimson when they out-dueled Bryce Aiken in the instant classic that was the 2019 Ivy League Tournament Championship last March. And if it weren’t for an ill-timed case of the shooting yips against LSU in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, Yale could’ve been the ‘Belle of the ball’, with all the prerequisites needed to advance to the second weekend of the big dance.
Make no mistake about it - Miye Oni was the Bulldogs’ shining star last year and the center of attention of every opposing scouting report, but Alex Copeland was the steady undertone who made everything tick. Both are no longer around, which leaves James Jones searching for answers in the backcourt. The only notable returner is Azar Swain, a long range driller who can take over a game with a well-timed 3-ball barrage. I’m inclined to think he’s far more versatile than what he showcased last season, but Copeland and Oni’s combined ball dominance relegated Swain to a spot-up specialist. He’ll have the rock in his hands more often this year as an opportunistic creator, but the primary ball handling duties will shift to Eric Monroe. Like Swain, Monroe can light it up from distance, but he’s somewhat limited as a dynamic playmaker. Neither Monroe nor Swain needs to be a 1-on-1 dribble drive threat, but assuming Jones keeps the pedal to the metal tempo-wise, it’s imperative this duo make sound decisions out in the open floor.
Waiting in the wings behind Monroe and Swain are two more reserves who barely scratched the surface last season, Matthue Cotton and Jalen Gabbidon. Both are big guards at 6’5 with plus athleticism that should help replenish the speed on the perimeter, but Gabbidon is the real X-factor if he can stay healthy.
Due to the dearth of playmaking on the perimeter, Jordan Bruner will now get to showcase his full bag of tricks this season as a point forward trigger man. Hyper-athletic 6’9 forwards who can shoot, handle, lead the break and drop dimes like this (see below) don’t come around that often...
Bruner’s at his best when he catches the ball at the top of the key, which is where Yale can run multiple off-ball cutting actions. When Bruner steps up and clears out the lane, both guards on opposite wings can exploit their respective defenders with unpredictable cuts, be it a backdoor slash to the basket (as seen above), or a flat cut toward the point, which sets up a hand off and subsequent ball screen with Bruner. Bruner’s equally as effective in transition as a rim runner, and his versatility in both full-court and half-court settings gives Jones ample flexibility to adjust the tempo in game as needed.
The other half of Yale’s formidable frontline is 6’10 Paul Atkinson. Sound. Solid. Steady. All three adjectives appropriately describe the rapidly improving junior, who almost certainly steps into the starting lineup this season after coming off the pine last year. As the chart below indicates, Atkinson was the glue that held the frontline together:
Of the three primary frontcourt groupings last year, Atkinson was the common denominator in the two top pairings. Jones opted to slot Bruner with the thicker Blake Reynolds (no longer around) in his go-to lineup last season, but I’m quite bullish on featuring more of the longer, more elastic Bruner / Atkinson combination this year.
Bottom Line: Columbia and Dartmouth are on a rocket ship right now, but I’m holding firm to my Yale top-4 prediction. Bruner and Atkinson are two of the most dominant interior forces in the league and the backcourt is grossly under-appreciated, simply due to the fact that Copeland an Oni hogged the limelight last year. In James Jones I trust.
5. Columbia
Key Returners: Mike Smith, Gabe Stefanini*, Patrick Tape, Jake Killingsworth, Randy Brumant
Key Losses: Quinton Adlesh
Key Newcomers: Joseph Smoyer, Jack Forrest, Emmanuel Onuama, Asa Shannon, Cameron Shockley-Okeke, Eddie Turner
Lineup:
*Update: Gabe Stefanini is out at least 3-5 months, but did undergo successful surgery on his left foot on October 4th
Outlook: On the surface, three straight 5-9 seasons doesn’t look like progress, but I staunchly believe Jim Engles is on the verge of a breakthrough. The equity he built up at NJIT, where he turned a nascent Division-1 independent program into a 20-game winner, carries a lot of weight in my perception. The table was set for the Lions to make a move in the Ivy last year, but Mike Smith’s meniscus tear against Bryant on December 7th halted any such momentum.
A former Chicago prep standout at Fenwick High School, Smith has been a revelation for the Columbia since the moment he stepped on the floor. Much like Matt Morgan for Cornell, Smith’s dynamic driving ability makes him an invaluable asset to an offense that otherwise lacks individual creation. Smith is cat-quick with the ball and fundamentally reshapes the defense when he’s on the move. To free up shooters on the perimeter, Engles runs a motion-intensive offense with a steady dose of cuts and handoffs on the perimeter, but Smith’s dribble penetration gives the Lions another source of shot creation. Per hooplens.com, Columbia’s scored 1.09 points per possession when Smith’s been on the floor over the last two seasons, compared to just 0.99 when he’s been off the floor. The former 2nd-Team All Ivy performer returns as one of the most feared weapons in the league, and he’ll have to carry the load until Gabe Stefanini returns.
Stefanini was forced to grow up in a hurry last season after Smith went down, and probably deserves the most credit for the Lions not tanking sans Smith. He was scouted as a shooter and spot-scorer early in the year, but he quickly debunked those perceptions once Engles entrusted him to engineer the offense. What Stefanini lacks in foot speed, he makes up for with size and craft, as he can knife by defenders with unpredictable change of pace and can shoot over smaller guards from 15-feet and in. The Italian native is one of the best shot-makers in the Ivy, routinely converting highly contested turnarounds and fadeaways from the midrange area. With Smith now back in the driver’s seat, Stefanini would’ve been dangerous as the Lions’ second-in-command, where he can hone in on hunting his own shot and defer the burdensome ball handling obligations back to Smith, but the timetable on his return is not encouraging.
That bumps up Jake Killingsworth to 2nd banana in the backcourt, a low-usage shooter who doesn’t need the rock in his hands to be effective. He’ll now receive a good portion of Quinton Adlesh’s looks this season as the Lions’ top long range sniper, while rising sophomore Maka Ellis and Tai Bibbs will see their roles expand as well.
The frontcourt takes care of the defensive dirty work, headlined by Patrick Tape, Randy Brumant and Ike Nweke. Tape is the dignitary of this bunch, a highly productive interior enforcer who plays with a refreshing sense of poise. Tape’s defensive instincts are flawless - he ranked 8th in the Ivy in steal percentage and only Chris Lewis and Desmond Cambridge blocked more shots on a per possession basis than Tape did last season. Brumant and Nweke are more compact forwards who can slide back and forth between the 4 and 5 spots, depending on how much size Engles wants to feature. Compared to Tape’s soft hands and smooth fluidity, Nweke and Brummant are closer to the raw end of the spectrum offensively, but there’s plenty of offensive firepower elsewhere on this roster.
Bottom Line: The return of Smith sets up for somewhat of a ‘do over’ year for Engles this season. Few teams in the Ivy have a gamebreaking point guard like Smith and his ability to spray the ball around to the surplus of shooters should be a huge boost to the offense. Smith’s jet-like speed out on the break will also open up a plethora of transition scoring opportunities, evidenced by how much faster Columbia played back in 2017-18 when Smith was fully healthy.
It’s no shock that the Lions sported the Ivy’s most efficient offense in 2017-18 when Smith was the full-time headliner, but no Stefanini will shift the onus to the other Lion contributors to put points on the board. The real question is can they get stops?
6. Dartmouth
Key Returners: Brendan Barry*, Ian Sistare, James Foye, Chris Knight, Aaryn Rai
Key Losses: Adrease Jackson
Key Newcomers: Trevon Ary-Turner
Lineup:
*Update: Brendan Barry will miss the entire 2019-20 campaign with a hip injury
Outlook: If you’ve read this preview in its entirety, then by now you already know: the Ivy is an oasis of passing big men. Another one can be found here for the Big Green, Chris Knight, a chiseled 6’7 230 pound sculpture who acts as the control hub for Dartmouth’s offense. While Knight’s individual offensive efficiency metrics aren’t stellar, the attention he commands inside draws so much attention to the laundry list of shooters that dot the arc around him. His ascension last season was the catalyst to Dartmouth’s white-hot start, which turned heads all around the Ivy leading up until conference play.
Similar to Penn’s late season skid, the wear and tear on a young Dartmouth team took its toll down the stretch, which was compounded by a couple of untimely injuries. If this tight-knit group can stay healthy, Dartmouth could be on the cusp of a top-4 finish in the standings.
While Knight is the interior fulcrum, Dave McLaughlin has constructed a balanced inside-out roster, which features a collection of rock solid guards. James Foye and Ian Sistare are sometimes indistinguishable because of how tightly connected they play as a unit. They’re interchangeable in the backcourt since both can initiate offense, facilitate for others and score when needed, a position-less fluidity that’s critical in McLaughlin’s offense.
For the exception of Knight, who will look to attack in isolation settings and exploit favorable matchups 1-on-1, the guards are all opportunistic scorers and will patiently await their turn to pounce. The end result is usually a catch-and-shoot 3, which is always set up by precursory dribble drives and ball reversals, and when the rock inevitably winds up in the hands of an open shooter, Foye and Sistare are automatic if given time and space. This duo dialed up 79 triples last year at a combined 42% clip, but they’re not the only threats on the roster. Taurus Samuels and Wes Slajchert both showed their stripes in spurts last season, so look for McLaughlin to call their number, especially when he swerves to a smaller 4-guard lineup (with Knight as the lone big). Trevon Ary-Turner is another long range assassin joining the Big Green’s shooting brigade, a Weber State transfer who played sparingly in 2017-18.
Adrease Jackson was a preprogrammed shooting bot incapable of error to start the season last year, and his surprise transfer decision in late March could be a big blow to Dartmouth’s thin frontline. At the end of November last year, Jackson was tops in the nation in 3PT% after he canned 15 of his first 21 treys to start the season. He was a regular starter alongside Knight up front, an active bruiser inside with deceptively refined skill. After Jackson went to the training table, McLaughlin threw sophomore Aaryn Rai into the shuffle, who now gets his moment in the sun as Knight’s primary front court companion. After torching the nets from distance as a freshman, Rai was cursed with a sophomore shooting slump last year - though, he did find other ways to contribute as a versatile defender and productive glass eater.
Bottom Line: I’m trying to restrain myself from falling too hard for this squad, but there’s a lot to like about the Big Green in 2020. Health will be paramount, and the loss of Barry will sting, but Dave McLaughlin is a savvy tactician and will now trot out a core group of guys who have played together for essentially two full seasons. 6th place is an admittedly bearish prediction given the minuscule separation between teams 4 through 7, but this projection likely equates to a 4-win improvement from last year’s 2-12 eyesore of a record.
7. Brown
Key Returners: Tamenang Choh, Brandon Anderson, Zach Hunsaker
Key Losses: Desmond Cambrige, Obi Okolie
Key Newcomers: Perry Cowan, Dan Friday, Carsten Kogelnik, Josh Watts, Noah Meren
Lineup:
Outlook: Mike Martin finally shook the monkey off his back last season, engineering a 9-game improvement from the year prior. Led by a scintillating sophomore class, Martin’s assortment of premier athletes formed the individual nuts and bolts of a suffocating defensive unit. This was especially noticeable against the league’s middle and bottom tier squads, as Brown’s surplus of athletes smothered the likes of Dartmouth, Princeton, Cornell and Columbia (Brown finished 6-2 in the 8 tilts against those teams last year).
The top-notch crop of athletes is the foundational trait for Martin’s up-tempo and pressure-driven style of play, but the departure of Desmond Cambridge and Obi Okolie guts the Bears of arguably their top-2 defenders. Okolie took home Defensive Player of the Year honors last season and Cambridge’s trampoline hops made him one of the most devastating helpside shot blockers in the league. Brandon Anderson returns as the head of the snake to spearhead the perimeter defense, while a pair of wing / forward hybrids in Tamenang Choh (more ‘wingy’) and Josh Howard (more ‘forwardy’) will provide cover as the second line of defense. Anderson’s a defensive glove at the point of attack and both Choh and Howard play much bigger than their listed heights of 6’5 and 6’6 indicates.
In fact, after 6’9 Matt DeWolf went down for the final month of the year last season, Martin pivoted to a hyper-athletic small ball lineup with Choh and Howard at the 4 and the 5, respectively. Per hooplens.com, they didn’t give an inch on the defensive side of the ball, and Howard’s newfound shooting stroke helped stretch the floor on offense, a timely development for a scoring attack largely reliant on dribble penetration:
Choh is a useful triggerman offensively, who Martin can play through out of the post or from the top of the key. Anderson is the quasi point guard, but his offensive development has yet to catch up with his defensive prowess and Choh has proven to be the more reliable decision maker as a creator and facilitator. Two fungible perimeter athletes in George Mawanda-Kalema and David Mitchell will see their minutes spike, while deadeye marksman Zach Hunsaker returns as the token 3-point specialist. Collectively, the Brown backcourt is nails defensively, as Martin’s affection for athleticism has paid dividends on this side of the ball. Even without Cambridge and Okolie’s explosiveness, the Bears’ army of athletes will still heat up the ball defensively, which they’ll need to convert into steals easy runouts going the other way.
Without an established alpha dog, Brown’s offense could stagnate this season, a discouraging notion considering the Bears checked in with the Ivy’s 2nd worst offense last year. Cambridge wasn’t a model of efficiency, but his shotmaking alleviated the scoring burden off of Choh, Howard and Anderson, all three of whom will be now the primary bucket getters.
Bottom Line: Mike Martin is copy-catting the Tommy Amaker and James Jones strategy of stockpiling athletes, which finally translated to the win column last season. The defensive speed and length will once again be the bedrock of Brown’s identity, which has to compensate for a meddling offense that has a lot of question marks entering the season. With Columbia set to get Mike Smith back in the mix and with Dartmouth quickly ascending, Brown’s in jeopardy of falling back down to the Ivy League basement.
Tier 3
8. Cornell
Key Returners: Jimmy Boeheim, Josh Warren, Terrance McBride
Key Losses: Matt Morgan, Steven Julian, Joel Davis
Key Newcomers: Greg Dolan, Marcus Filien, Jordan Jones, Chuks Uzoka
Lineup:
Outlook: A quick tip of the cap to Matty Morgan is in order here, a longtime Ivy League great who was synonymous with Cornell basketball for the last four seasons. He was the Big Red’s engine as both a scorer and facilitator, allowing the rest of his supporting cast to nestle in safely to their achievable roles. In such a strong Ivy League landscape top-to-bottom last year, it’s a mystery how Morgan led Cornell to a 7-7 record, which equated to a 3-way tie with Penn and Brown for 4th place.
Now, Morgan is off to greener pastures and head coach Brian Earl must retool a roster once built around Morgan’s special skill set. The void of Morgan now tips the Big Red’s strength toward the front court, where Josh Warren and Jimmy Boeheim will lead the charge this season. At 6’8, Warren’s especially dangerous as a passer, but he can go get his own both inside and out, equipped with a respectable jumpshot and established post game. Boeheim is more adept at slashing from the perimeter, and his 3-point precision will be pivotal for the Big Red’s floor spacing this year. No Morgan guts Cornell of 94 3s, which he canned at a 43% clip, so shooting is in high demand right now in Ithaca.
The real Achilles heel last season was on the glass, as Cornell’s lack of bonafide size up front led to a bloodbath on the boards on both sides of the ball. Rising sophomore Kobe Dickson is a brickhouse at 6’9 240 pounds, and could be the proper solution to the rebounding woes, but the primary front line tandem of Boeheim and Warren is susceptible to being bullied by bigger forwards. Perimeter athleticism is another need that must be addressed, with high-flying off-guard Joel Davis and defensive savant Steven Julian defecting this summer.
Terrance McBride is the de-facto replacement for Morgan, a solid combo guard who started alongside Morgan last year, but after that, the backcourt is a barren wasteland. Bryan Knapp was objectively terrible in his brief minutes last year, but he appears to be the default replacement as McBridges’ running mate in the backcourt. Earl might be wise to turn to his crop of newcomers early this season in hopes of fast tracking their development, but sophomore Matt Harshany’s high-school pedigree qualify him as a potential needle-mover. He poured in over 26 points a game in high school, but a leg injury kept him off the floor last season.
Bottom Line: With few reinforcements behind Morgan, the following chart below is a bad omen for what might lie ahead this season
Take a minute to let that dark red 0.84 figure to soak in. For context, that efficiency rate matches the worst offensive team in the country last year (Chicago State). Earl and Co. could be in for a bumpy ride this season, as the post Matt Morgan era begins in Ithaca.