- Ky McKeon
Key Returners: Keion Brooks
Key Losses: EJ Montgomery, Immanuel Quickley, Nick Richards, Tyrese Maxey, Ashton Hagans, Nate Sestina, Johnny Juzang, Kahlil Whitney
Key Newcomers: Terrence Clarke, BJ Boston, Devin Askew, Olivier Sarr (Wake Forest)**, Davion Mintz (Creighton), Isaiah Jackson, Lance Ware, Cam’Ron Fletcher, Dontaie Allen (Redshirt), Jacob Toppin (Rhode Island)***
** As of this preview date Olivier Sarr has yet to receive a waiver to be immediately eligible. This preview assumes he will be eligible
*** As of this preview date Jacob Toppin has yet to receive a waiver to be immediately eligible. This preview assumes he will not be eligible
Lineup:
Outlook:
Well here we go again, tale as old as time – the Kentucky Wildcat roster has completely flipped over and yet Big Blue is still projected to be a top ten team in the land. Fish swim, birds fly, Jon Rothstein texts every coach “good luck” before every game. Per UK’s website, this year will actually be the Cats’ “newest” team in the John Calipari era. A whopping 94% of Kentucky’s scoring walks out the door and only one significant player on the roster, sophomore Keion Brooks, remains. Last season was something of an oddity for Big Blue basketball – the Cats finished 25-6 (15-3) and won the SEC by three games but ranked just 29th in KenPom, the school’s lowest ranked season since the disaster 2013 year. Aside from the Evansville loss, which John Calipari loves to talk about, UK just didn’t blow out many teams, contributing to a lower-than-usual Kentucky advanced analytical ranking. Despite the analytics, I kept that team in my personal top ten all season and considered them a Final Four favorite. But the past is the past, let’s turn now to the future.
Kentucky once again boasts the nation’s top recruiting class, highlighted by two McDonald’s All-Americans in Terrence Clarke and BJ Boston. To boot, Calipari also adds arguably the top transfer on the market in Wake Forest’s Olivier Sarr, as well as a solid grad transfer in Creighton’s Davion Mintz. All this to say, UK will again be deep, athletic, and dangerous on the basketball floor.
Calipari’s dribble drive offense is a well-known commodity at this point – UK uses its athletic advantage to overwhelm opposing defenses with a constant onslaught of penetration, cuts, and kicks. It’s a simple offense that can be taught quickly, perfect for a school whose average player lifespan is just one or two seasons. This offense relies on getting the ball into the paint for easy, close looks and drawing fouls for free trips the foul line – three-pointers are mostly an afterthought. Only three teams in the country had a lower 3PA rate than Kentucky last season and UK ranked 3rd nationally in percentage of points scored from the FT line (18th in FT rate, 1st in FT%). We should expect more of the same in 2020-21; UK has a few guys who can shoot, but Cal’s rotations will consist primarily of elite athletes whose skill set is best used to attack the basket.
Defensively, UK also relies on its athleticism to make it impossible for opposing offenses to score. Last season’s defense was the 2nd worst in the Calipari era but still ranked 2nd in the SEC. While the Cats don’t force a ton of turnovers, their immense length all over the floor makes it difficult to shoot over from the perimeter or inside the paint.
UK likely rolls out a starting backcourt consisting of all freshmen in 2020-21. Clarke and Boston are the jewels of Calipari’s 2020 class and will fill the wing spots at 6’7” and 6’6”, respectively.
Both players are ranked in the top ten nationally by every media outlet and promise to have immediate impacts – like SEC All-Conference, possibly even All-American impacts. Clarke hails from Brewster Academy, Boston from Sierra Canyon (aka Bronny’s school) – both players are super long, Clarke is the better athlete while Boston is the better shooter and scorer. Expect Boston to lead this team in scoring with his ability to literally put the ball through the net from anywhere; Clarke should be a key defensive piece as well as a hard-to-stop downhill driving force.
Top 30 freshman Devin Askew is the next up in a long line of successful UK point guards. Askew reclassified from the 2021 class, but you wouldn’t guess it from seeing the way he plays. Fundamentally driven high school coaches everywhere will appreciate how hard Askew pounds the ball on his dribble, asserting that he is in complete control when he handles the rock. The 6’3” lead guard is a powerful driver off the bounce and also has a pretty good outside shot. UK is rather thin at the point guard spot, so Creighton transfer Davion Mintz should see plenty of time backing up Askew. Mintz, who missed all of last season due to injury, is a combo guard with a good nose for scoring in transition – he should also be one of UK’s better shooters from deep.
Rounding out UK’s backcourt / wing rotation will be top 75 freshman Cam’Ron Fletcher and redshirt freshman Dontaie Allen. Fletcher, a Vashon product, is an insane athlete who should be a problem both off the bounce on offense and defensively on and off the ball. He’s not really much of an outside shooter but man can he fly. Allen, a 4-star recruit in the class of 2019, redshirted last season after suffering a knee injury in high school. Unlike Fletcher, Allen comes with a strong shooting reputation, which should be a key complementary skill in any of UK’s potential lineups.
Olivier Sarr bolted after Danny Manning was fired from Wake this offseason. He should be UK’s starting 5-man all year after improving categorically in each of his first three collegiate seasons. Sarr ranked 10th in the ACC in OR% and 2nd in DR% as a junior and showed off his impressive touch in the low block.
In Sarr, Kentucky has one of the best frontcourt players in the conference, a guy who contributes on both ends of the floor.
Keion Brooks, the lone returner from last year’s squad, is the likely favorite to line up alongside Sarr in the starting five. He showed off his shooting range last season in limited minutes and proved to be a decent rebounder. Brooks will compete with top 30 freshman Isaiah Jackson, a 4/5 tweener with a wingspan the size of an airplane. Jackson will be a shot blocking menace on defense and a dunker extraordinaire on offense. Top 40 freshman Lance Ware could also etch out some playing time with his mobility and promise as a shot blocker, but he’s clearly behind Jackson on the pecking over and likely behind Brooks.
Bottom Line: Kentucky will once again be on the youngest teams in the country this season but also one of the most talented. Upperclassmen transfers like Sarr and Mintz should help in the leadership department as well as the on-floor product, while the 2020 recruiting class makes this squad too athletic and too talented to expect anything less than an SEC championship.