-Jim Root
Key Returners: Darius Days, Eric Gaines, Mwani Wilkinson, Shareef O’Neal
Key Losses: Javonte Smart (pro), Cam Thomas (pro), Trendon Watford (pro), Aundre Hyatt (transfer), Josh LeBlanc (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Adam Miller (Illinois), Xavier Pinson (Mizzou), Tari Eason (Cincinnati), Efton Reid, Jerrell Colbert, Brandon Murray, Justice Williams
Lineup:
Note: 2022 recruit Justice Williams reclassed to 2021 and enrolled at LSU on August 20. He’s been added to the roster, and he brings more dynamism and perimeter skill to the backcourt.
Outlook: Ho-hum, nothing to look at here in Baton Rouge! Just a normal basketball program operating with no scrutiny from the NCAA or the law, please feel free to keep moving along. Will Wade continues to run a perfectly clean program and has reloaded the roster once again following a heavy pro exodus from a team that arguably underperformed its immense talent.
The blame for that underperformance is again quite simple: LSU has almost no interest in playing defense. For the second straight year, Wade and his Tigers posted a top 5 offensive ranking in KenPom’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency thanks to a plethora of outstanding individual college scorers, torching opponents on a nightly basis despite being one of the most isolation-heavy attacks in the country. And also for the second straight year, the Tigers were barely a top 25 team overall thanks to their turnstile-esque work on the other end, resulting in an 8-seed in the NCAA Tournament and not making the Big Dance’s second weekend.
Yes, LSU did improve from year to year (179th in 2020, up to 124th in 2021), but almost all of that improvement can be directly attributed to opponents simply missing more shots. In 2020, LSU allowed a 34.5% 3P% on defense, ranking 252nd in the country; in 2021, that number plummeted to 30.0%, 17th nationally. The Tigers continued to be dismal on the defensive glass (312th in rebound rate) and inside the arc (241st in 2P% defense), both of which make very little sense considering the high level of athlete this roster possessed (and will possess again this year).
To Wade’s credit, he has tried multiple approaches on this end – different zone looks, some full court pressure – but the Tigers’ breakdowns are often more about 1v1 weakness and effort issues (see: the awful rebounding). LSU gives up a ton of transition opportunities, and those high-value chances allow opponents to rack up easy points without having to exert much effort to execute against a set defense. Like rebounding, a lot of transition defense is effort - the Tigers need to work harder to get behind the ball after missed shots and turnovers.
Some stability may come from having significantly more effective size. Wade often played Watford and Darius Days as his two big men (with Days even sliding to center at times), unable to trust Shareef O’Neal, Bryan Penn-Johnson, and Josh Gray to play extended minutes. Adding bruising forward Tari Eason from Cincinnati immediately upgrades the interior defense and rebounding, and though 5-star center Efton Reid is more known for his skill set, his immense size should help as well. Improving at the rim should have a ripple effect, as well: LSU has given up a ton of threes under Wade as it seeks to keep opponents out of the paint, but firming up inside should allow the perimeter defenders to extend a bit more.
Even with all of this talk of defensive improvement, LSU will once again be carried by its offense. Sure, Ja’vonte Smart and Cam Thomas and Trendon Watford all declared for the NBA Draft, but Wade scored a huge bonus when Days opted to return after a second straight season of going through the evaluation process. At 6’7, 245 pounds, he’s a complete matchup nightmare capable of playing bully ball inside against smaller competition or burying jumpers (40% from deep) if opponents don’t come out on him:
Especially when he slides down to center, that’s a nightmare scenario for opponents; in the above clip, he’s pulling elite shot-blocker Osun Osunniyi away from the paint. Because of the talent around him, though, he was mostly a tertiary scoring option, deferring to the now-departed prolific triumvirate.
And those three were indeed responsible for most of the offense. Per Synergy, LSU ranked 2nd in possessions finished via isolation, and it was almost all via that trio:
Similarly, even though pick-and-rolls are not a massive portion of the Tiger offense, Smart, Thomas, and Watford take essentially all of the Tigers’ experience in that department with them as well:
With such a void in the backcourt, Wade knew he could not solely rely on sophomore Eric Gaines and incoming freshman Brandon Murray, especially since Gaines was one of the least efficient players in major college basketball last season (22.2% from the field, 23 turnovers vs. 20 assists). Instead, two transfers should start at guard: Xavier Pinson from Missouri and Adam Miller from Illinois, two former Arch rivals.
Pinson is the more natural ball-handler, though Miller reportedly was seeking greater on-ball responsibility as part of his decision to leave Champaign, and he should find it with LSU. Pinson is one of the streakiest shooters in the sport and can be sloppy with the ball thanks to his high-risk, high-reward passing, but he’s undeniably dynamic and should find more success with better offensive weapons around him (and a more forgiving coach). Miller, meanwhile, has elite pedigree as a recruit and flashed immense potential for the Illini, but the smooth lefty never hit 20 points again after exploding for 28 in his collegiate debut. He was one of the more important wings on USA’s FIBA u19 gold medal team this summer, so Wade will hope he found more confidence from that experience.
As mentioned, Reid’s smooth skill set should allow him to quickly emerge as a tremendous offensive player. He has light feet for a huge man and a soft shooting touch, and his post up ability adds an element to the offense that Wade simply has not had during his time in Baton Rouge. He uses his body well to seal off opponents, and although SEC size will be a new challenge, he played top shelf competition in high school at IMG Academy (where classmate Murray also played). Highlights from his junior year, where you can see the clear potential:
By their natures, Miller and Pinson may struggle to be super consistent in the backcourt, but Reid and Days should give opponents headaches up front.
Outside of isolation and scoring in space, the other key to the LSU attack is battering the offensive glass with multiple bodies. Days and Eason will earn copious second opportunities, and expect Mwani Wilkinson (rising sophomore with elite patience and finishing skills), Alex Fudge (early enrollee who redshirted last year), and Jerrell Colbert (true freshman who may end up seeing limited playing time) to reinforce that barrage as well.
Bottom Line: Despite changing out three massive pieces, this LSU team’s roster construction once again has an offensive tilt to it. Eason and Wilkinson may be the only plus defenders in the rotation, and though the added size inside should stabilize the defensive floor, the offense will take a hit with Pinson/Miller tagging in for Smart/Thomas. The result is a slightly more balanced but similarly flawed team that looks destined to be roughly on par with Wade’s last two squads: NCAA Tournament caliber, but unlikely to make a significant tourney run. Fortunately, Wade is properly handling every other aspect of the job in a squeaky clean manner, so that’s really all you can ask for in this day and age.