Mountain West Tournament Preview 2021

-Jim Root

(check out the Mountain West preseason preview here)

Final Standings:

3MW’s All Conference Team:

Player of the Year: Neemias Queta, Jr., Utah St.
Coach of the Year:
Brian Dutcher, San Diego St.
Newcomer of the Year:
Grant Sherfield, So., Nevada
Freshman of the Year:
Marcus Williams, Wyoming

Season Storylines:

‘Twas a terrific year for the Mountain West, with four teams separating themselves from the pack and getting into the NCAA Tournament picture. Well, it was terrific until the season’s final week, when losses in rescheduled games dragged down the resumes of Boise State and Colorado State, pushing the league alarmingly close to one-bid status.

That one guaranteed dancer is regular season champ San Diego State, as the Aztecs repeated atop the MWC despite heavy offseason losses (Malachi Flynn, Yanni Wetzell, defensive ace KJ Feagin). Matt Mitchell rose into stardom, Jordan Schakel blossomed from “shooter” to “scorer,” and Nathan Mensah anchored the Aztecs’ elite pack line defensive unit.

SDSU enters as the clear favorite, but Utah State is not far behind. The Aggies’ size was more dominant than even I predicted: USU ranked 8th nationally in 2P% defense, 11th in block rate, 17th in offensive rebound rate, and 2nd in defensive rebound rate. Neemias Queta and Justin Bean were phenomenal, and reserve center Trevin Dorius was a sneaky-solid reserve, particularly on the glass. Sharpshooter Brock Miller’s health is a question in this postseason, though, because USU’s backcourt is not deep, as seen in consecutive losses to Boise State without Rollie Worster.

The Broncos are a leviathan of athleticism, hurling waves of rangy or quick scorers at opponents. Derrick Alston and Abu Kigab epitomize this approach, but the key to Boise’s postseason might be monstrous Serbian center Mladen Armus. The Broncos have a brutal first round matchup with Nevada, who boasts plenty of size and arguably the league’s best backcourt in transfers Grant Sherfield (Wichita St.) and Desmond Cambridge (Brown).

Nevada isn’t actually the fourth top-tier squad though – that would be Colorado State, one of the most aesthetically-pleasing teams in the country. The Rams run gorgeous offense featuring two little but lethal guards in Isaiah Stevens and Kendle Moore, and burly forward Rowdy David Roddy gives them some toughness, as well. Colorado St., Boise St., and Utah St. all need to make runs to the MWC final to feel comfortable on Sunday.

Given the separation at the top of the league, dark horses aren’t very sexy here. Nevada is awesome, but beating Boise and SDSU back-to-back sounds highly unlikely, so perhaps one of Fresno St. or UNLV might tickle your fancy. Fresno handed Boise a crippling Q4 loss in the aforementioned rescheduled game, and UNLV already earned a split with its quarterfinal foe, Utah State. Oh, and the Runnin’ Rebels once again are hosting this event.

Tournament Preview

Tournament Predictions

(8) Wyoming over (9) San Jose St.
(7) UNLV over (10) Air Force
(6) Fresno St. over (11) New Mexico

(1) San Diego St. over (8) Wyoming
(4) Boise St. over (5) Nevada
(2) Utah St. over (7) UNLV
(3) Colorado St. over (6) Fresno St.

(1) San Diego St. over (4) Boise St.
(3) Colorado St. over (2) Utah St.

(1) San Diego St. over (3) Colorado St.