-Matt Cox
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Keith Braxton, Sr., St. Francis (PA)
Coach of the Year: Dan Englestad, Mount St. Mary’s
Newcomer of the Year: DJ Russell, Jr., Robert Morris
Co-Freshman of the Year: Brandon Rush, Fairleigh Dickinson / DeAndre Wilkins, Wagner
Team Previews
Tier 1
1. LIU
Key Returners: Julian Batts Raiquan Clark, Jashaun Agosto, Ty Flowers
Key Losses: Julius van Sauers
Key Newcomers: Virshon Cotton, Jermaine Jackson
Lineup:
*Update: Per Ryan Peters’ tweet below, Eral Penn is out indefinitely with an arm injury
Outlook: There’s a slew of reasons why LIU is my surefire pick to win the NEC - all five starters back, electric guards, top-flight athletes, veteran experience, yada yada yada - but only one truly matters in the grand scheme…
Look out northeast natives because there’s a new apex predator in town. I present to you the LIU Brooklyn Sharks, the artist formerly known as the LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds.
I can’t stress enough how much going from a ‘blackbird’ (is this just a less intimidating, more generic falcon?) to a shark (the ruler of the ocean) dwarfs any other coaching or player personnel improvements. One could make the case LIU had the best offseason of any team in America, the prevailing reason I have the ferocious fins slotted in the top spot of my projected NEC standings.
All tongue in cheek aside, the Sharks are bloodthirsty for a postseason appearance, as the seasoned nucleus of Julian Batts, Raiquan Clark, Jashaun Agosto and Ty Flowers get one last crack at NCAA Tournament glory before their college careers expire. Agosto’s a sublime dribbler and passer, particularly out in the open floor, where his Harlem Globetrotter handles are on full display. The lefty Batts is a steady sidekick next to Agosto, which gives Kellogg two premier playmakers at the point of attack. After posting stellar 2017-18 stat lines, Agosto and Batts both took a minor step back last year from an efficiency standpoint. As their usage rates climbed, so did the turnovers, while shooting percentages went the other direction.
Their collective regression was a bit perplexing, but there’s two possible explanations for why they can course correct in 2020:
In 2017-18, Agosto and Batts played in the shadow of Joel Hernandez, the Blackbirds’ primary initiator and offensive alpha dog. With Hernandez no longer around last year, defenses redirected their focus on locking up Agosto and Batts. This was unfamiliar treatment for this duo, but a necessary learning experience to learn how to play effectively with a bullseye on your back.
Minor injuries were also at play here, as Batts reportedly dealt with nagging injuries all season. A revived and replenished Batts should bode well for a bounce back senior campaign, assuming his tear through the NEC in 2018 wasn’t a complete fluke
Just as Hernandez’s presence opened up the floor for Batts and Agosto two years ago, the influx of talented transfers this summer should have a similar effect in 2020. Two battled tested guards in Virshon Cotton (Akron) and Jermaine Jackson (Detroit) will add even more ammunition to an already stout backcourt some and prevent opponents from over indexing on Batts and Agosto.
Flowers is one of a kind in the NEC, a 6’9 wing with the skill set and agility of a guard. He’s a matchup nightmare on offense, but he’s even more versatile on defense. Blessed with a long reach and nimble feet, Flowers’ can play a few steps off quicker guards without giving up much airspace. He’s a nuisance to shoot over, and deceptively tough to drive on with a rare ability to get chase down blocks from behind.
Toward the end of the year last season, as noted in Blue Ribbon’s offseason interview, Kellogg started to weaponize his special tool by slotting him on the oppositions’ best player, regardless of position. Based on how well the Blackbirds played down the stretch, Kellogg was clearly onto something. From late February onward, Flowers’ embraced Kellogg’s challenge and elevated his game to a whole new level. This coincided with an impressive 4-game stretch when LIU notched two tough road victories over St. Francis PA and Sacred Heart, with a pair of demolitions over Central Connecticut and Bryant sandwiched in between.
Last, but certainly not least, is Clark. Arguably the NEC’s best player, Clark was graciously granted an extra year of eligibility by the NCAA this offseason. At 6’6, Clark’s armed with a long first step and a crisp handle, Clark is a handful to keep away from the rim, be it in transition or in the half-court. He’s slowly expanding his shooting range beyond the 3-point line, and while he’s yet to command any real respect with that newfound jumper, adding that dimension will open up more opportunities to slash from the wing.
An under the radar role player who can really change the complexity of the game is Eral Penn. Penn’s a stretched-out 6’8 forward who Kellogg utilized as the centerpiece of the Blackbirds’ defense last season, most notably in the heart of Kellogg’s matchup 2-3 zone. With Penn fortifying the paint, Kellogg unleashed Flowers all over the floor without sacrificing any upfront rim protection. With Penn in jeopardy of missing the entire 2019-20 campaign, Kellogg may resort to smaller, faster lineups with Flowers as the de-facto 5.
With so much talent and speed, it’s no wonder Kellogg cuts his guys loose offensively. Historically, his teams have always played at one of the fastest tempos in the country, and last year was no different:
Bottom Line: On paper, there’s no reason why the Sharks shouldn’t win this league. Kellogg has always been a talent magnet, but has fallen short in consistently getting that talent to gel together as a cohesive unit. With two timely high to mid major additions, along with a rejuvenated Batts, the Sharks’ talent may simply be too overwhelming for the NEC to handle this season.
2. Sacred Heart
Key Returners: Cameron Parker, Koreem Ozier, Kinnon LaRose,E.J. Anosike, Jarel Spellman, Aaron Clarke, Zach Radz
Key Losses: Sean Hoehn
Key Newcomers: Tyler Thomas
Lineup:
Outlook: In the spirit of full transparency, Sacred Heart made fools out of the Weave’s 2018-19 projections. Everything just seem to go right for the Pioneers last season. To the naked eye, this was supposed to be the Sean Hoehn show, who head coach Anthony Latina surrounded with a bunch of unknowns. By February, that initial perception was completely debunked, as Hoehn was merely a key cog in a well-oiled machine.
While one could argue last season was a home run year, the Pioneers might actually cozy up to the top of the NEC totem pole. Latina found himself a defensive destroyer in Jare’l Spellman from an untapped Division-2 oasis, who returns to fend off any and all paint intruders. Spellman’s fellow forward EJ Anosike ran away with the NEC’s Most Improved Player award last season, a well-deserved honor after shattering his freshman year output. Anosike’s ascension gave the Pioneers such much needed balance, reducing the burden on Sean Hoehn’s shoulders to carry the scoring load. Collectively, the Spellman / Anosike tandem forms what might be the best frontcourt in the NEC.
No one saw Anosike and Spellman’s interior dominance on the horizon, but they weren’t the only Pioneers being slept on. Latina’s freshmen haul wildly exceeded expectations, headlined by Koreem Ozier, Cameron Parker and Aaron Clarke. This trio notched double-digit starts in their first collegiate season, and integrated seamlessly into Latina’s lightning fast, transition-based offense. Despite some early turnover woes, Latina entrusted Parker with the full-time point guard duties at the onset of league play. Parker would never look back, starting every conference game from there on out, while simultaneously blossoming into one of the savviest distributors in the NEC:
This pinpoint precision outlet pass is a sign of what to expect from Parker this season. Off a made 3, the Pioneers waste no time inbounding the ball and Parker immediately slings a dime to a dashing Hoehn for the easy lay-in:
Ozier was the most assertive of the freshmen, a balanced scorer who doesn’t need help hunting his own shot. Ozier likely becomes the lead alpha in the backcourt, while Clarke’s measured play qualifies him as a perfect 3rd option on the perimeter.
Kinnon LaRose is the forgotten face in last year’s primary rotation, an invaluable piece as a de-facto stretch-4 (he canned 38% of his triples last season). Even Zach Radz had some moments as an off the bench defibrillator - just ask Andy Toole, who had no answer for Radz in either of the two regular season matchups between Sacred Heart and Robert Morris (Radz went for 20 and 17 in the two meetings).
The free-throw line was Sacred Heart’s safe haven last year. In conference play, the Pioneers lived at the charity stripe, checking in with an astronomical 43% free throw rate. For context, only six teams in America amassed that clip last year, as Latina’s pick-n-roll centric half-court offense led to a steady stream of drives going toward the hole.
Not only did the Pioneers get to the line often, but they cashed in on those opportunities with near robotic precision. In conference play, Sacred Heart converted 79% from the free-throw line, topped only by three other teams in the nation. This is where the loss of Hoehn will sting the most, a crafty penetrator with a knack for drawing contact near the bucket and an automatic converter from the foul line. There’s still an abundance of rim attackers still in the mix this season, but the Pioneers will need more consistent scoring in open play to avoid becoming overly reliant on the whistle.
Bottom Line: Last year’s sub-500 record is deceiving, as Latina fielded arguably his best team since arriving in Fairfield back in 2013. Hoehn’s exit paves the way for this next generation of young guards, an auspicious sophomore triage who look ready to carry the torch. With St. Francis PA watching some key pieces defect this summer, the Sharks are the Pioneers’ biggest barrier to reaching the NEC summit in 2020.
3. St. Francis PA
Key Returners: Isaiah Blackmon, Keith Braxton, Myles Thompson, Randall Gaskins Jr., Mark Flagg
Key Losses: Jamaal King, Andre Wolford
Key Newcomers: Tyler Stewart*, Joshua Cohen, Luke Ruggery, Ramiir Dixon-Conover
Lineup:
*Update: Tyler Stewart recently was cleared for immediate eligibility and can play right away this season. As detailed by Ryan Peters, the Binghamton transfer should be an instant contributor as a quintessential stretch forward who can space the floor.
Outlook: *Gulp*
Thinking about that gut-wrenching home defeat at the hands of Fairleigh Dickinson still has my stomach in a knot. In the low-major landscape, there’s no more electric atmosphere than a conference tournament title game on a school’s home floor. Such was the case last season when 4,000 screaming fans packed DeGol Arena in Loretto in anticipation of that coveted trip to the Big Dance. Yet, despite catching a beat up FDU squad playing with effectively six players, the Red Flash froze in the moment. They had no answer for the Knights’ superior size, but the free-throw futility is what ultimately cost them the automatic bid. I mean, 4 of 17 from the charity stripe?! The yips were clearly contagious that night…
Krimmel and Co. must now regroup and refocus for the 2020 redemption tour. Most of the band is back, but Jamaal King’s seat is the noticeable vacancy. For three straight seasons, Krimmel penciled in King to the starting point guard slot and never thought twice. Now, without his mini maestro conducting the offense, Keith Braxton will take on an even larger role offensively, on top of his already full plate of responsibilities.
When Braxton tested the NBA draft waters this summer, he was pigeonholed into a positional category for the first time in his basketball career. Here, in the NEC, Braxton’s a guard, wing and forward all wrapped into one. Krimmel weaponizes Braxton as a small ball 4, a near impossible cover for most NEC defenders regardless of position. His big frame and trampoline hops explain how he hauled in 10 boards a game last season, all while finding time to do stuff like this:
One notch down in the Red Flash’s pecking order is Isaiah Blackmon, a Charlotte native who’s started every game he’s been healthy during his 5-year tenure in Loretto. The 3-point sniper has been a beneficiary of King and Braxton’s gravitational pull offensively, and routinely delivers soul crushing daggers with his deadeye jumper. Blackmon’s long range accuracy will be paramount in 2020 with the exodus of Andre Wolford, one of the deadliest shooters in the NEC over the last two years.
Scott Meredith also returns, another 3-point specialist who likely steps right into Wolford’s role as off-the-bench energy shot. Meredith’s streaky shooting stroke could be an asset if he shakes off the rust built up from sitting idle all last season. Myles Thompson is another intriguing perimeter piece, a fluid 6’6 wing who could separate himself as the 3rd banana offensively, behind Braxton and Blackmon.
With Braxton in the driver’s seat, the NEC’s top-ranked offense from a year ago should keep chugging along, but the defense is where corrections need to be made. One could argue Krimmel’s 4-guard lineup strips the Red Flash of size up front, but few teams in the NEC possess two true low-post threats capable of exploiting that. Even on the boards, the Red Flash held their own last season, checking in with the 4th best defensive rebounding rate in the conference.
The root cause of these deficiencies lies in the belly of the defense. Since Josh Nebo took his shot-swatting talents to Texas A&M in 2017, Krimmel has yet to locate a comparable replacement. The following season (2017-18), Deivydas Kuzavas, once a highly regarded 6’10 Lithuanian prospect, started to morph into that interior enforcer role, but his minutes began to taper off down the stretch in favor of the younger, leaner, more pliable Mark Flagg. Flagg was the higher priority option last season, but he shared time with Luidgy Laporal, a lumbering 250 pound Frenchman. With Laporal now gone, Flagg and Kuzavas will rekindle their competition for the 5th starting spot, and likely platoon for one another at the 5 position. With experience now in their corner, this duo must give Krimmel 30-35 strong minutes a night to stabilize the interior defense.
Bottom Line: There won’t be any scoring draughts in Loretto this season. The Red Flash can fill it up from all over the floor, equipped with the league’s most dynamic playmaker (Braxton), along with a formidable cast of supporting characters. The season hinges on the ability to get consistent stops on the defensive end. Led by Randall Gaskins, one of the best on-ball defenders in the NEC, the Red Flash have the prerequisite athleticism to defend at a high level, but explosive guards have torched St. Francis in big spots over the last two years. Perhaps Thompson or Ramiir Dixon-Conover can blossom into a second lockdown defender, but Krimmel must find a way to tighten up the outer defensive shell.
4. Fairleigh Dickinson
Key Returners: Jahlil Jenkins, Xzavier Malone, Elyjah Williams, Kaleb Bishop
Key Losses: Darnell Edge, Mike Holloway
Key Newcomers: Collin McManus, Brandon Rush, Devon Dunn, Callum Baker, Daniel Rodriguez
Lineup:
Outlook: After limping out of the NEC starting gates last year, something lit a fire under the Knights in late January. The defending NEC Tournament champs stumbled to a 1-4 league record, which featured a jarring home loss to Central Connecticut in overtime. Hard to imagine how Greg Herenda’s bunch would stoop to such a level, but the Knights righted the ship when it mattered most. Led by a two-headed guard attack in Jahlil Jenkins and Darnell Edge, only Gonzaga could impede the Knight’s momentum over the final three weeks of the season and FDU crossed the finish line on a 15-3 tear.
The loudest narrative surrounding the Knights as they entered the NCAA Tournament last year revolved around their prolific 3-point shooting. That’s not an inaccurate description by any means, but it does lack context. Yes, FDU did shoot a sizzling 41% from behind the stripe last year (topped only by Lehigh, Wofford and South Dakota State in the entire country), but that ‘team 3PT%’ metric sort of implies a balanced contribution. Remove Edge’s 47% conversion rate on nearly 200 attempts and the Knights would’ve looked like an ‘above-average’ shooting team, as opposed to ‘elite’.
The importance of knocking down shots is amplified with the loss of big Mike Holloway in the middle. Holloway - despite his head scratching jitters in the play-in game against Prairie View A&M - feasted on smaller NEC frontlines last season, but his absence should open up the lane for more slashing and cutting from the perimeter. This bodes well for Jenkins, a cat-quick penetrator at the point, as he’ll run into less traffic whenever he knifes his way into the lane.
Xzavier Malone-Key, a long, bouncy 2-guard, and Brandon Powell, a former reserve who rose up the depth charts quickly last year, will now step front and center as Jenkins’ main outlets on the wing. Malone-Key converted a pedestrian 35% of his triples last year, while Powell canned 34% of his 35 attempts. Ideally, both of those figures creep up into the high 30s, but Elyjah Williams and Kaleb Bishop, the projected starting forward unit, are sneaky good shooters as well.
The loss of Holloway might spark Herenda to return to his defensive roots. Just travel back in time to the 2015-16 season, and you’ll find a Knights defense that pestered opposing guards with deceptive traps and heightened ball pressure. Since then, Herenda’s slowly drifted towards a more conservative defensive approach, evidenced by a slight dip in FDU’s turnover rate the past two seasons. Malone-Key, Williams and Bishop are all top-notch athletes with long arms who can be effective in a more aggressive defensive scheme. Explosive freshman Brandon Rush could also flourish as an on-ball pest next Jenkins, another reason Herenda may consider rekindling his old defensive flame.
Bottom Line: FDU’s size at the 3, 4 and 5 positions last year was a key differentiator, particularly when Herenda started Williams (6’8), Bishop (6’7) and Holloway (6’8) during the postseason run. Without Holloway, Malone-Key will step back into the starting lineup, which will resemble a traditional 3-guard, 2-forward construction. I’m bullish on this quicker, more versatile lineup concoction, one that should push the tempo without worrying about leaving Holloway behind. Herenda’s got enough bullets left in the chamber to make another run at the dance, especially with such a minuscule gap separating the NEC’s top-5 squads.
5. Robert Morris
Key Returners: Josh Williams, Jon Williams, Charles Bain, Yannis Mendy
Key Losses: Matty McConnell, Malik Petteway
Key Newcomers: DJ Russell, AJ Bramah
Lineup:
Outlook: A memoir about Andrew Toole’s time in the NEC would have two distinct chapters. Chapter 1 would be called ‘Wonder Boy’, an uplifting series of stories detailing the rise of one college basketball’s youngest stars. The timeline would capture Toole’s 5-year run from 2011 to 2015, when the Colonials amassed 20-wins in four consecutive seasons.
Then, a stark shift in tone would occur in Chapter 2 (title still pending), which would describe how the unjust transfers and untimely departures stunted Toole’s momentum since 2016. Five years have gone by since the Colonials last trip to the Big Dance. Toole is ready to put the pen down on Chapter 2, and re-capture the fountain of youth magic that propelled him and his Colonials to NEC dominance once upon a time.
Rewriting the script must begin with seamlessly replacing two of Toole’s premier players, Matty McConnell and Malik Petteway, two cornerstones of Toole’s turnover-dependent defense. Petteway was deceptively mobile for as large as he was, while McConnell was a ballhawk on the perimeter. The clip below gives a flavor of McConnell’s unrivaled anticipatory instincts at work, as he picks off the ensuing wing to baseline pass:
However, Toole has proven over the years that it doesn’t really matter who he trots out there. His defense is a ‘plug-and-play’ system, evidenced by the fact that the Colonials have boasted a top-5 NEC defense for 8 years running, including three straight top-2 finishes. Toole used to swear by his patented zone-based trapping schemes, but has since veered away from that in favor of more man-to-man defensive frameworks. But, no matter the structure, the results are always the same.
To replace McConnell and Petteway’s defensive prowess, Toole will turn to two JUCO imports, DJ Russell and AJ Bramah, pair of 6’7 highly versatile, multi positional defenders. Bramah is closer to the wing mold, while Russell’s thicker frame will allow him to alternate between the 4 and 5. Russell and Bramah will team up with two other crucial pieces to last year’s puzzle, Charles Bain and Cameron Wilbon. At 6’8 with a filled-out frame, Bain emerged as reliable two-way threat last year in a full-time starter role. He’s a model of analytic efficiency, doing most of his work at the rim (via offensive rebound stick backs) or from beyond the 3-point line, where he’s often the beneficiary of penetration kick-outs. The 6’5 Wilbon will eat up some of McConnell’s minutes on the perimeter, another long, disruptive wing defender who Toole clearly handpicked for his system.
With Petteway gone, 6’8 245 pound Yannis Mendy may have to hold down the fort at the 5, but I don’t love his fit in Toole’s defensive blueprint. To me, Mendy’s best optimized as the first option for a second unit, similar to how traditional back-to-the-basket big men are used in today’s NBA. Mendy’s lack of lateral mobility makes him prone to being exposed out in the open floor, a damning trait given how Toole likes to defend. This leads me to believe Bain will play a lot more as the primary paint protector this season, along with Russell and 6’8 freshman Olisa Ngonadi.
Without McConnell’s soothing presence in the backcourt, the Williams brothers (Jon Williams and Josh Williams) will co-lead the offense this season from the perimeter. Hailing from Akron, Ohio where they each attended the esteemed Saint Vincent-Saint Mary’s High School (most famous for providing us with LeBron James), this brotherly duo is as flammable as any backcourt combination in the league. The younger Jon doubles as a primary ball handler, while Josh (who started his career at Akron) is a human candle wick dripping in gasoline. RMU fans would call him ‘streaky’, but you don’t want to catch him on a night when he’s cooking. In the third game of the season last year, Josh went ballistic from downtown, raining in 15 threes in a non-competitive match against Division-2 Mount Aloysius.
Where the Williams’ boys need to improve is ball security. Turnovers plagued the Colonials last year, a flaw that could be further exposed without McConnell’s measured floor game. Rising sophomore Dante Treacy is a viable insurance plan to Jon at the point, who earned Toole’s respect with some quality minutes in high leverage situations last year.
Bottom Line: Toole’s proactive replacement of Petteway with the JUCO imports will soften the blow of his departure, but filling McConnell’s shoes won’t be easy. He was wise beyond his years, a cheeky theft on the defensive end and cerebral creator on the offensive end. A lot is riding on Jon and Josh, who must now pace the Colonial’s offense in the absence of McConnell’s perimeter playmaking and Petteway’s interior dirty work. This roster has more question marks than the top-4 teams slated above, but I’m trusting Toole to push the right buttons and prevent the Colonials from tumbling down into the bottom half of the standings.
6. Mount St. Mary’s
Key Returners: Vado Morse, Damian Chong Qui, Jalen Gibbs, Omar Habwe, Malik Jefferson, Nana Opoku, Dee Barnes
Key Losses: None
Key Newcomers: Naim Miller, Ayan Teel
Lineup:
Outlook: A first year coach. A lineup comprised entirely of freshmen and sophomores. That’s the quintessential recipe for a rebuild, a journey which now enters phase 2 under the direction of head coach Dan Englestad. The former Mount St. Mary’s assistant inherited the daunting task of matching Jamion Christian’s lofty standards when he became chief commander prior to last season. Often times, the transitory period takes at least two years for the new regime to instill their handpicked recruits, but Englestad appears to be way ahead of schedule.
Rather than coddling his young nucleus with a cupcake non-conference schedule last year, Englestad took his young core through the ringer. While the Mountaineers had the deer in the headlights look against NC State on opening night, composure would soon settle in. As with any young team, consistency was the Achilles heel, but digging deeper into the Mount’s 0-9 start reveals there’s plenty of reason for optimism:
Against a high-octane Hofstra Pride offense, the Mount raced ahead to a 16-4 lead out of the gate and trailed the eventual CAA regular champions by 3 at halftime
Facing St. John’s without the services of star freshman Vado Morse, the Mountaineers stayed neck-and-neck with the Johnnies for over 30 minutes, trailing by just a bucket at the under-12 timeout
Despite being overwhelmed by a Maryland team with substantially more size and superior talent for the first 30 minutes, the Mount roared back in the final 10 minutes to cut the margin to a respectable 15-point deficit
The Mount engineered a similar comeback against Lehigh, trailing by 26 pointwith 14 minutes remaining in the second half, before charging back to a 7-point loss
Those last two bullets could be categorized as ‘garbage time’ comebacks, but there’s something to be said for a bunch of teenagers clawing back against two formidable opponents. These early bumps and bruises accelerated the maturation of Englestad’s young core, and the wins started to trickle in by the time conference play rolled around.
The Mount’s 3-3 finish to close out the season is a great placemat to start from heading into the 2019-20 campaign. In Blue Ribbon’s offseason preview, Englestad cited the nuance of slowly implementing his “wreckage” system, a style of play he branded at his prior head coaching gig (Southern Vermont). In many ways, it sounds strikingly familiar to Jamion Christian’s old ‘Mayhem’ style.
“I want to play faster,” Englestad said. “I think I prefer playing that way”
The question now becomes, does Englestad have the horses to run at a Kentucky Derby pace?
Narrator: I think so?
It all starts with Morse, last year’s recipient of the NEC Freshman of the Year award. I fell for Morse when I first watched him play against Minnesota, a game in which he came off the bench and poured in 18 points in 29 minutes. Morse is super shifty with the rock, and can create his own shot with minimal help. Once his physical frame fills out, Morse will be one of the best dribble drivers in the NEC, a deadly combination when paired with his silky smooth pull-up.
Morse is small, but he towers over his miniature backcourt partner Damian Chong Qui. For those unfamiliar with DCQ, think of Virginia’s Kihei Clark. His quickness and annoyingly low center of gravity are a nuisance to opposing ball handlers. Offensively, he also mimics Clarks with a measured, opportunistic mindset - that is, attack gaps, move the ball and find the open man.
Jalen Gibbs stands the tallest of the Mount’s three guards, a 6’3 athletic rim attacker who can get to the bucket with relative ease. Englestad knows he has three dynamic drivers in Morse, DCQ and Gibbs, and offers them every opportunity to shine in pick-n-roll action. Per Synergy, 26% of the Mount’s offensive possessions last year ended with a pick-n-roll driven outcome, the 4th highest clip in the country.
Englestad’s frontcourt is tailor-made to thrive in his “wreckage” system, particularly Omar Habwe and Nana Opoku. Both are raw offensively, but make their pay on the other side of the ball, Habwe as a malleable defender on the wing and Opoku as an elastic eraser at the rim. Malik Jefferson may lack his counterparts agility and bounce, but he’s an immovable object in the middle. Jefferson, Opoku and Habwe will interchange across the two forward spots, the rotations of which will depend on Jefferson’s foul status and conditioning. Jefferson was the most productive of this group last year, but foul trouble often typically caps his minutes somewhere in the 20-25 range.
Bottom Line: The reason for my bullishness on the Mount is pretty straightforward - take it away Vince:
Englestad showed over the final month of the season that his young guns aren’t far away from competing with the NEC’s heavy hitters. One year older and wiser, the Mount looks primed for a big leap in 2020.
7. Bryant
Key Returners: Ikenna Ndugba, Adam Grant, SaBastian Townes, Juan Cardenas, Patrick Harding
Key Losses: Joe Kasperzyk, Byron Hawkins, Taylor McHugh
Key Newcomers: Benson Lin, Michael Green III, Charles Pride, Ayo Dada, Hall Eliasias, Nick Crocker, Makail Simmons
Lineup:
Outlook: Along with Dan Englestad of Mount St. Mary’s, Jared Grasso was the other MAAC head honcho who took a seat at the big boy table last summer. A longtime assistant in the northeast region, Grasso now sits at the top of the food chain at Bryant after studying under MAAC legend Tim Cluess at Iona for 9 years.
Forget what you saw last season, folks. The NEC’s slowest team is about to shift into overdrive. Sitting next to Tim Cluess for nearly a decade will brainwash anyone into thinking there’s only two acceptable speeds: fast and faster. Last season, Grasso didn’t have that fine tuned race car capable of flying down the court at breakneck speeds, but this year, he’s taking off the training wheels:
“When you want to play a certain way and have certain guys that don’t fit that, now I’m starting to get guys who can fit my style.”
That quote from Blue Ribbon encapsulates the bind Grasso found himself in last season. The initial plan was to let Ikenna Ndugba run the show, while simultaneously grooming highly touted prospect Joe Kasperzyk as the point guard in waiting. Naturally, an unexpected shoulder injury ended Ndugba’s season, so Grasso redrafted his plan on the fly. Kasperzyk was thrown to the wolves as the primary point guard last year, while the veteran Ndugba mended on the sidelines.
This initially set up for an interesting conundrum this summer, with Ndugba’s return to full strength opening up a Pandora’s box of lineup questions.
Should Grasso pair them together in a dual point guard lineup? Should he pin them against each other in point guard competition?
Welp, this decision was made easier by a shocking development in early June. Kasperzyk was dismissed from the team, stemming from an on-campus incident in April in which he was arrested and charged for assault.
Kasperzyk’s exodus passes the baton back over to Ndugba. With his once understudy now out of the picture, Ndugba will pick up where he left off as the Bulldogs’ offensive floor general and primary ball handler (though, it will be his first under Grasso).
The timing of Ndugba’s return sets up nicely for a seamless integration back into Grasso’s revamped offense. Remember, Ndugba played at a frenetic pace back in 2017-18 during Tim O’Shea’s final season at the helm, so running the offense in this year’s accelerated tempo shouldn’t be a problem.
Ndugba also enjoys the luxury of rejoining a roster with some serious offensive firepower, both on the perimeter and inside. SaBastian Townes and Adam Grant are a ‘thunder’ and ‘lightning’ type pairing, Grant the electrifying scorer and Townes the bruising post presence. Both Grant and Townes eked their way onto the NEC’s All Conference 3rd Team last season and they’re safe bets to receive that honor again in 2020, especially with Bryon Hawkins and his double-digit scoring output defecting.
While Kasperzyk received most of the ink last year, fellow newcomers Juan Cardenas and Patrick Harding stuck in the primary rotation as well. With no reinforcements for Townes up front, Grasso needed their services right away. Both answered the call of duty without hesitation - Harding was a beast on the boards, while Cardenas was a human bouncy ball, flying all over the floor for chase down blocks and helpside defensive support. Cardenas has NEC Defensive Player of the Year type upside, and if he continues to refine his offensive skill set, a long professional basketball career could be in his future.
In just his first year at the Division 1 level, Cardenas’ colossal impact on the defensive side of the ball was felt immediately. Since Townes is only 6’5, the Bulldogs are devoid of imposing rim protectors in the paint. As the chart below reveals, Bryant was torched whenever Cardenas came off the floor last year:
I can’t defend or explain why the offense was so much worse with Cardenas on the floor - I mean, he led the entire NEC in effective field goal percentage, so I’m not buying the notion that he’s a liability offensively. All I know is that he’s one of the bounciest athletes in the entire conference, and his pedigree is just another sign that the sky's the limit:
Cardenas and Harding’s collective development will be monumental for repairing the NEC’s worst defense last year.
Bottom Line: The Grant, Townes, Ndugba and Cardenas foursome is as diverse and talented as any top-4 in the NEC. If the players embrace and master Grasso’s new system, the Bulldogs could be vying for a top-3 spot in the standings. For now, with all the moving parts that still need to fall in place and with all the uncertainty surrounding the freshmen, I’m simply taking a conservative, ‘wait-and-see’ approach with this 7th place projection.
8. St. Francis Brooklyn
Key Returners: Chauncey Hawkins, Rosel Hurley, Yaradyah Evans, Deniz Celen
Key Losses: Glenn Sanabria, Jalen Jordan, Keon Williams
Key Newcomers: Unique McClean
Lineup:
Outlook: If head coach Glenn Braica somehow moves upwards in the NEC standings this year without Glenn Sanabria and Jalen Jordan, he’ll get my vote for coach of the year. Sanabria and Jordan formed one of the best guard tandems in the league, with Sanabria as the lead ball handler / creator and Jordan as the precise long range marksman. Along with jitterbug Chauncey Hawkins, the Terrier guards sparked the offense through high pick-n-roll and well-spaced isolation situations. Without Sanabria, Hawkins is the Terriers’ savviest slasher, but his growth as a decision-maker and maestro of the offense will be pivotal.
Hawkins had it easy last year. He came off-the-bench with a very simple goal in mind: Get. Buckets. Because of the strong backcourt depth, Braica could cap Hawkins’ minutes on nights where he simply didn’t have it or when his itty-bitty 5’8 frame was at risk of being exposed by bigger guards.
Hawkins will now move into the full-time point guard cockpit, flanked by Unique McClean, Rosel Hurley and Stevan Krtinic on the wing and Yaradyah Evans at the 4. McClean is a sneaky big pickup for Braica, a former 3-star recruit and highly touted prospect from UMASS, but he never quite found his place in Amherst. He’s a freak athlete and will almost surely slide into the starting lineup alongside Hawkins. The only issue is that neither McClean or Hurley (who started 28 games a year ago) are renowned as prolific shooters.
As Braica alluded to in NEC media day, he’s planning to spread out the offense this year and embrace the 3-ball:
“We are good in some areas — not as good in some — but I think we can be a better team. We will spread things out more this year. Rather than one shooter, we have several that can hit those shots.”
In this context, Krtinic and 6’6 swingman Milija Cosic could be needle-movers. Both are mostly unproven at this juncture (Cosic missed all of last season), but Krtinic went off for a few big games last season and Cosic shot 41% from downtown two years ago (albeit, on a low number of attempts).
To mitigate the risk of extended offensive droughts, Braica will lean on an event-driven defense to generate offense in transition off blocks and steals. The collective athleticism of Hawkins, Hurley, McClean, and Evans could form a swarming defensive unit if Braica devises the right scheme. Braica’s been known to flash some full-court pressure in years past, but I’d expect the defensive intensity to rise this season with the surplus of speed he has at his disposal.
Braica will need a sharp frontline defense behind the extended perimeter front to cover up any missed gambles. An impending return of the imposing 6’11 Joshua Nurse could be just what the doctor ordered. Injuries have stunted Nurse’s growth since he arrived at St. Francis back in 2015, but he’s impossible to score over at the rim for smaller NEC guards.
Deniz Celen was the main boss up front last year, a reliable low-post scorer that gives Braica some inside-out balance offensively, but he can hold his own on the defensive end as well. Finally, look for Christian Rohlehr to emerge this season, a potentially scary shot-blocker if he learns how to stay out of foul trouble.
Bottom Line: Glenn Sanabria and Jalen Jordan’s production is simply irreplaceable by any one or two players. Perhaps this is what sparked Braica’s plan to alter the offensive and defensive schemes ever so slightly this season, but I doubt we’ll see any drastic changes. Braica seems to have bolstered the depth at all five positions, but without that high-end ‘quality’ (a dynamic playmaker), the ‘quantity’ (depth) won’t be enough to push the Terriers any higher in the NEC leaderboard.
9. Merrimack
Key Returners: Juvaris Hayes, Jaleel Lord, Khalief Crawford
Key Losses: Ryan Boulter, Troy McLaughlin
Key Newcomers: Mykel Derring, Ethan Helwig, Mikey Watkins, Jaylen Davis, Jordan Minor, Ziggy Reid, Jordan McKoy
Lineup:
Outlook: Wow, I’m uncharted territory here. The typical team preview routine has become instinctual to us here at 3MW, but I’m confounded as to how to properly evaluate a brand spanking new Division-1 program...
Like any other data-driven college basketball degenerate, I resorted to kenpom.com as a crutch. Specifically, I dug up a handful of schools from the past decade who made the leap to Division-1 and documented their starting and ending ranking in their first season playing with the big boys.
I wanted to get a feel for where these programs fell in the overall 353-team spectrum, as well as gauge how accurate Mr. Pomeroy’s projections have been. Turns out, most of these teams exceeded expectations:
For Merrimack to continue that theme in 2020, Juvaris Hayes will have to make a name for himself. Around the northeast corner of the country, Hayes is already a well known commodity. His essay-lengthed player page on Merrimack’s official school website encapsulates the vast array of individual accolades he’s compiled over the years. Before wreaking havoc on the NE10 conference - the same conference as LeMoyne, where John Beilein and most recently his son Patrick Beilein coached - Hayes was a key cog on the undefeated, nationally ranked 2016 St. Anthony’s High School team (coached by the legendary Bob Hurley Sr.).
Hayes is simply appointment television. He’s tasmanian devil of sorts on defense, where he routinely instills fear in opposing ball handlers. Hayes swiped an unthinkable 4 steals a game last season, just one of many jaw-dropping statistical anomalies on his player card.
Offensively, Hayes’ turbo speed translates to a lightning quick first step off the dribble. He’ll be reunited with both of last year’s running mates in Jaleel Lord, Hayes’ teammate at St. Anthony’s before they joined forces at Merrimack, and Khalief Crawford, a quintessential glue guy and disruptive defender. With the loss of Ryan Boulter, a 6’7 flamethrower who poured in 15 a game last season, Lord now becomes second-in-command to Hayes, an unorthodox lefty with a crafty scoring package.
Head coach Joe Gallo optimizes the speed of his perimeter triumvirate with tricky defensive schemes, which includes a 3 /4 court 1-2-1-1 ‘light press’ and a hyperextended 2-3 zone. At NEC media day, he succinctly summed up the points of emphasis in the zone:
“We play an extended 2-3 zone,” he said. “We want to come out, be aggressive and challenge the three-point line. We do not want you to be comfortable running your offense.”
The clips below show how the zone and press schemes work in concert, as Gallo will often lead with the 1-2-1-1 front with Hayes at the point of attack…
… and then drop back into the base 2-3 zone in the half-court...
Notice how both wings are flared out all the way to the 3-point line, effectively denying basic point-to-wing passes that are usually uncontested by standard 2-3 zones. In the Warriors’ first season in the NEC, Gallo will confuse unfamiliar NEC foes by alternating back and forth between each look.
Bottom Line: As alluded to in the introduction, projecting a first year Division-1 program with no comparable basis is guesswork. From watching a few games of Merrimack over the last two seasons, one of which was a scrimmage against UCONN, the Warriors’ backcourt can go toe-to-toe with any in the NEC . The size up front is scarce, but the defensive schemes Gallo employs suppresses the need for height and length. That eye test, combined with the computer metrics and recent historical precedents of other programs making the leap from D-II, ultimately landed me at a 9th place NEC projection. Prove me wrong Juvaris!
10. Wagner
Key Returners: Chase Freeman, Nigel Jackson
Key Losses: Romone Saunders, Elijah Davis, AJ Sumbry, Devin Liggeons
Key Newcomers: Curtis Cobb, Alex Morales, Will Martinez, Elijah Ford, De’Andre Wilkins, Jordan Mason
Lineup:
**Update: Per Ryan Peters, Abita Taylor is reportedly eligible to play immediately.
Outlook: Cover your eyes kids. When watching Wagner, viewer discretion is advised…
Bashir Mason knew the losses of JoJo Cooper and Blake Francis would sting last year, but it wasn’t supposed to be this bad. The Seahawks boasted the NEC’s 2nd best offense in 2018, fueled by a three-headed guard attack in Cooper, Francis and Romone Saunders. Cooper’s graduation and Francis’s transfer left Saunders on an island, and Wagner’s offensive efficiency fell off a cliff.
Losing your top-3 scorers is typically a bad thing, but after watching last year’s offensive train wreck, perhaps this house cleaning is a positive. A beacon of hope comes in the form of UMASS grad transfer Curtis Cobb. The former Minuteman will provide an immediate boost to the offense, which looked like a 3-point contest gone terribly wrong last season. The Seahawks hoisted the most 3s in the NEC last year, but converted an abysmal 31% of those attempts. They were equally as putrid inside the arc, checking in with the NEC’s worst 2PT field goal percentage at 43%.
Cobb’s proven production makes him the headliner of Mason’s crop of newcomers, but watch out for JUCO All-American Alex Morales. JUCORecruiting.com pegged Morales as a fringe top-100 prospect, a lean 6’5 wing who can fill a variety of needs on both sides of the ball. Will Martinez is built similarly, a lanky 6’5 guard / forward hybrid who’s regarded as a ruthless rim attacker. Elijah Ford also stands 6’5 but his DNA skews closer to a true forward mold. He snagged nearly 9 boards a game at his prior JUCO stop, so Mason may thrust him into the starting 4 spot alongside Nigel Jackson right away. At 6’7, Jackson is also on the leaner end of the spectrum, but Mason entrusted him with some run at the 5 last season, a position he’ll fill more consistently this year without AJ Sumbry.
The repetitive descriptions above point to the interchangeability and versatility of this roster, thanks to the influx of Mason’s newcomers. While Cobb and returning point guard Chase Freeman are limited to defending guards, Morales, Martinez, Ford and Jackson can guard up to 4 positions on the floor. Mason’s affection for multi-positional athletes is driven by his defensive system, which has slowly evolved over the last few years.
Per the graphic below (generated from Synergy data), Mason is slowly turning up the defensive pressure cooker with his full-court press.
Only four teams in America pressed more frequently than the Seahawks last season, a move that jives well with this new roster construction. The press isn’t an ‘all-or-nothing’ type of scheme, as Mason will adjust the pressure dial throughout the course of the game as needed.
Off a made basket, multiple guards will immediate push up to hug the primary ball handler and set up shop in this standard 1-2 shell structure:
Even if this initial wave of pressure doesn’t generate a steal, opponents are forced to deliberately bring the ball up, which wastes precious seconds off the shot-clock. Mason will also throw out some 2-3 zone as a changeup to his standard man-to-man half-court offense.
Bottom Line: Given how anemic the offense was last season, the Seahawks will once again rely heavily on their ability to get stops. Mason himself corroborated my hypothesis at NEC media day earlier this month:
“Defense is always our first concern,” said Wagner’s Bashir Mason, “this year more than ever, as we have so many players to replace.”
Mason’s snail-paced tempo also plays into this strategy, as lower possession counts limit the adverse impact of a stagnant offense. Historically, the Seahawks have been one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the NEC, a natural counter for poor shooting and minimal offensive skill. There’s plenty of leapers littered across the roster that will help the Seahawks get cheap, easy buckets on the offensive end, especially if monstrous 6’11 freshman DeAndre Wilkins can crack the primary rotation. Wilkins is a 4-star recruit, which don’t come around very often in the NEC, but reports indicate he’s still raw offensively. I’d be stunned if Mason doesn’t cut him loose right away, as he could be a handful to keep off the glass.
Even with Wilkins’ high-end pedigree coming to the rescue, there’s still way too many holes on this roster. A bottom-3 NEC finish seems likely.
Tier 2
11. Central Connecticut
Key Returners: Ian Krishnan, Jamir Coleman
Key Losses: Tyler Kohl, Joe Hugely
Key Newcomers: Stephane Ayangma, Zach Newkirk, Trey Tennyson, Myles Baker, Greg Outlaw, Jamir Reed, Javen Udofia, Xavier Wilson, Ola Olamuyiwa
Lineup:
Outlook: Frustration.
No word in the English language more accurately describes the 2018-19 season for Donyell Marshall. No moment exemplifies last year’s irritation more fittingly than what went down on February 21st, which marked the turning point of Central Connecticut’s season.
After a troubling 1-3 road trip dropped CCSU to 5-9 in the NEC, the Blue Devils were back home to host Mount St. Mary’s. Immense pressure and frustration put the Blue Devils on edge, which finally reached a boiling point during an ill-timed Mount run that gave the visitors a double-digit lead late in the 2nd half. As detailed by Ryan Jones of the Central Recorder, during the under-8 timeout, the Blue Devils’ star player, Tyler Kohl, furiously kicked a metal chair, which struck Joe Hugley (CCSU’s 2nd best player) in the face. Hughley was taken to the locker room, while Kohl rotted on the pine for the final 8 minutes as the Blue Devils sank even lower into the depths of the NEC standings.
A broken team with seemingly nothing to play for predictably crumbled down the stretch, as Donyell Marshall watched what was supposed to be a promising 3rd season go by the wayside. Now, he must right the ship without the help of Kohl or Hugley.
Life after Tyler Kohl sounds like a world of despair, the Blue Devils do-everything lead guard for the last two seasons. At 6’5 with a burly build, Kohl wore multiple hats on the floor - he brought the ball up as the de-facto point guard, carried the scoring load as the primary playmaker and held down the defensive glass as the Blue Devils’ second forward. The arrival of 6’7 Jamir Coleman allowed Kohl to slide down to the 3 occasionally, but Kohl was more than capable of bullying taller bigs inside at the 4
Coleman’s a fluid athlete at 6’7, and tailor-made to play in transition, but he’s skilled enough to play at any pace. Sharpshooter Ian Krishnan is the only notable returnee with guaranteed playing time, a plus athlete with a smooth shooting stroke. Zach Newkirk is regarded as a perimeter stopper, but he’ll have his work cut out for him as the Blue Devils primary initiator. Trey Tennyson set the nets on fire in high school, as did Chicago native Myles Baker, two more youthful infusions of talent Marshall will need immediate production from.
Bottom Line: Most squads in the NEC must replace key pieces walking out the door, but Kohl might be the biggest blow of them all. However, Marshall seems to think ridding his team of Kohl’s selfishness might be a positive going forward:
“Last year (a long 11-20), we had too many people trying to win by themselves,” he recounted. “This year, we are trying to share the ball on offense and try to play as a team.”
I’m willing to hear the counter argument that Kohl was a locker room disease, but that doesn’t make up for everything he did on the floor. I’m excited to see who among the freshmen separate themselves from the pack, but this is the start of a full tear down and rebuild in New Britain.