-Jim Root
Key Returners: Garrison Brooks, Armando Bacot, Leaky Black, Anthony Harris (injury), Sterling Manley (injury)
Key Losses: Cole Anthony (pro), Brandon Robinson, Christian Keeling, Justin Pierce
Key Newcomers: Caleb Love, Day’Ron Sharpe, Walker Kessler, Puff Johnson, RJ Davis, Kerwin Walton
Lineup:
Outlook: Well, if it’s any consolation, it turned out to be the perfect year to have a lost season. Without an NCAA Tournament, it seems far less relevant that UNC had its worst campaign since 2002, when Matt Doherty was burning the program down from the inside. Of course, Doherty then brought in the Rashad McCants/Sean May/Raymond Felton recruiting class that captured a national title in 2005, so it worked out alright in Chapel Hill.
Could this year’s disaster be the foundation for similar success? Roy Williams responded by bringing in the best recruiting class in his tenure, featuring five top-100 recruits per RSCI, including three in the top 18. Along with a returning core in the frontcourt of Garrison Brooks and Armando Bacot, the Tar Heels are loaded with enough talent to render 2019-20 merely an injury-marred aberration, and the depth of the class leaves the future exceedingly bright, as well.
Perhaps the most glaring issue with last year’s team was a total dearth of shot creators and perimeter shooters, especially when injuries ravaged the freshman class. Jeremiah Francis struggled throughout the year with nagging issues, Anthony Harris tore an ACL as soon as he started playing well (after recovering from another ACL tear in 2018-19), and worst of all, Cole Anthony missed 11 games in the heart of the season. Without him, the Heels were a mess, going 4-7 and losing any and all momentum from a solid 6-3 start that included wins over Notre Dame, Alabama, and Oregon. Even when Anthony did play, though, the offense was a slog; only Brandon Robinson consistently made threes, and foes collapsed on post ups and drives as a result. UNC ended up taking the 5th-highest share of 2P jumpers in the country, and that shot selection made it incredibly difficult to score efficiently on a regular basis.
With Anthony gone, another star freshman, Caleb Love, will take over the primary ball-handling duties. Love is an NBA-bound blend of physical tools and tremendous skill, possessing the ability to create for himself and others while having tantalizing defensive potential as well. If healthy, Harris should start alongside him; he only played five games, but he was the key to beating UCLA in Las Vegas and has an appealing perimeter skill set. Leaky Black has mostly been a zero offensively, but he has experience and is an incisive passer from the wing. Three other freshmen – Puff Johnson, Kerwin Walton, and RJ Davis – could all earn playing time as well. Johnson and Walton are both shooters by trade, with Johnson being a taller, lankier lefty while Walton sports an electric afro. Davis, on the other hand, is an undersized, electric point guard who can move Love off the ball at times. He really stood out on tape, and I’d expect him to make a significant impact immediately as a bolt of lightning off the bench. Oh, Andrew Platek is still on the team too, I guess.
Anthony’s injury took the Heels’ collective foot off the gas pedal, as the remaining guards didn’t have the speed to push things as much as Williams prefers, and UNC played at its slowest tempo in Roy’s entire tenure – especially on offense:
Even the times that UNC did manage to get out in the open court usually ended with frustration. Per Synergy, UNC ranked a galling 352nd in transition points per possession, a disparate result from Roy’s usually-potent secondary break. Love and especially Davis will accelerate things back to typical Roy levels.
That break requires more than just a speedy lead guard, though. Roy pushes his bigs to run the floor and establish early post position, often beating opponents down the floor:
Those opportunities were few and far between last year, despite having Brooks and Bacot as twin towers up front. Brooks is the headlining returner, a double-double machine whose steady development has turned him into an ACC POY contender. He’s an excellent post scorer, ranking in the 77th percentile nationally, a number made even more impressive considering the utter lack of spacing the UNC offense had. Bacot was rawer as a freshman, but his physical tools allowed him to be one of the best rebounders and rim protectors in the conference. Day’Ron Sharpe adds another perfect fit to the UNC style; he’s enormous and has a never-ending motor, and he’s an extremely mobile dude for being so massive. Fellow five-star center Walker Kessler is more skilled and less athletic, but he’s also mobile enough for his size and an intimidating presence at 7’0, 245 pounds.
That quadrumvirate of massive bodies should excel at another Roy Williams staple: dominating the offensive glass. That was one of the few trends that remained consistent last year, as UNC ranked 12th nationally in offensive rebound rate, and the Heels should be plenty capable of playing volleyball on the glass even if the newly added shooters miss their marks. An extra wild card is Sterling Manley, a promising big man back in 2017-18 but also someone whose career has been ravaged by injury. It’s unclear how much he’ll be able to contribute this season after having serious knee surgery in December 2019.
As disappointing as the offense was, the defense was somehow actually worse, ranking 94th nationally per KenPom’s AdjDE (11th in the ACC). More blame goes to the wing rotation and the injuries; the Heels didn’t have the athletes or the depth to apply any kind of pressure. Roy’s worst defenses – 2020, 2018, 2015, 2010 – struggle to force turnovers and contain prolific guards and wings. Black, Harris, and the freshmen will once again be tasked with correcting this weakness, and other than Davis, they all have decent-or-better size for their positions. The rim should be well protected given the Heels’ immense size, but the perimeter players also need to keep opponents in front of them with some consistency.
Bottom Line: This is a strong roster, even considering the fact that four of the best five players might be centers. Roy Williams is used to playing two true big men, and his uptempo system should allow him to use his bench liberally. The Tar Heels’ overall ceiling hinges on the wings; if Harris is healthy, Johnson and Walton make shots, and Davis allows Love to focus on scoring for stretches, then the Heels could be the best team in the ACC. If the whole lot of them flop again like last season, then UNC will struggle, though nowhere near the level of 2019-20. The Heels will be back in the NCAA Tournament, so long as there is one.