- Ky McKeon
Key Returners: Will Richardson, Eric Williams, N’Faly Dante, Franck Kepnang
Key Losses: Eugene Omoruyi, Chris Duarte, LJ Figueroa, Amauri Hardy, Chandler Lawson, Jalen Terry
Key Newcomers: Quincy Guerrier (Syracuse), De’Vion Harmon (Oklahoma), Jacob Young (Rutgers), Nate Bittle, Rivaldo Soares (JUCO), Isaac Johnson
Lineup:
Outlook: The Ducks fought through a tough COVID season and won their 2nd straight Pac 12 regular season title with a sterling 14-4 conference record. Oregon’s first game didn’t come until December 2nd, and the Ducks were missing star guard Will Richardson for half the year. Adding to the short-handedness, former 5-star recruit N’Faly Dante tore his ACL in the sixth game of the season, leaving the Ducks thin on the frontline, and Chris Duarte and Eric Williams each missed some time with minor injuries as well. Despite Dante’s absence (and with the help of a fortunate VCU positive COVID test), Oregon made the Sweet Sixteen for the 5th time under Dana Altman. Richardson and Dante should be fully healthy to start the 2021-22 campaign, and Altman adds a star-studded transfer class to replace three starters, two of whiom were 1st Team All-Conference players.
Oregon was big on the perimeter last season, with every starter standing 6’5” or taller, but it lacked frontcourt size, something of a rarity under Altman. This year the Ducks are deep and talented on the frontline, featuring four former top 100 centers. Dante started all six games prior to going down with injury last season and should step into the starting five once again in November assuming all systems go (though Franck Kepnang did flash potential after enrolling in mid-December). Dante is a shot-blocking extraordinaire and a beast on the glass who makes Oregon’s half-court matchup zone extremely difficult to score against. Dante will have competition for his starting spot, as Altman brings in top 25 5-star center Nate Bittle, a super long prospect built almost like Chet Holmgren. Like Holmgren, Bittle can handle the rock a bit and rain triples from distance, making him somewhat of a unicorn at 6’11”, and he could step in as a stretch four in some supersized lineups.
Isaac Johnson, a 4-star recruit from the 2019 class, finally joins the Ducks after a two-year mission, and Kepnang, a former top 40 recruit, will get to see his first full season after joining Oregon late as a bit of Dante emergency insurance. Johnson is a mobile forward with 3-point range. Kepnang is a huge, aggressive, and strong inside presence with rim protection ability.
With the 5-spot fortified, Altman can opt to play a more “traditional” lineup rather than being forced to go small at all times. He’ll still likely do this from time to time, especially with the arrival of former Syracuse forward Quincy Guerrier, a 3rd Team All-ACC selection last season. Guerrier is excellent all over the floor: he rebounds, blocks shots and defends, hits outside shots, and gets to the bucket off the bounce.
His versatility and athleticism will fit in well with the Ducks’ trapping and token full-court pressure and half-court matchup zone schemes. Though now an upperclassman, Guerrier still has plenty of room to grow and develop into a dominant force in the Pac 12.
Williams returns to provide a similar skillset as Guerrier. He was an underrated piece to Oregon’s success last season and acts as a “glue guy” on the court, doing a bit of everything. Williams started 21 games last year after coming over from Duquesne, rebounding and defending well while shooting 36% from deep.
Williams will see run at the 3 and 4 this season and will be backed up in this role by 6’8” sophomore Lok Wur and JUCO transfer Rivaldo Soares. Wur is a long stretch forward with two-way ability. Soares was an NJCAA 1st Team All-American who averaged 15.2 PPG and 6.8 RPG for powerhouse South Plains, an Elite Eight qualifier in the NJCAA Tournament last year. He’s dynamic with the ball and has plenty of range on his outside shot; the dream scenario would see him making a similar impact to Duarte, another former JUCO gem.
When Payton Pritchard graduated in 2020, the concern for Oregon was its lack of point guard. Richardson was supposed to be the answer last season, but his wrist injury forced the Ducks to take a more “by-committee” approach. Richardson should be good to go this year, and he’ll have plenty more help handling the rock with De’Vion Harmon (Oklahoma) and Jacob Young (Rutgers) joining the fold.
Richardson’s elite shooting ability makes him a perfect off-ball player where he can run off screens and catch-and-release. He developed his ball skills last season but should have considerably less pressure to be the primary PG in 2021-22.
Harmon enjoyed a fantastic season with OU before missing the NCAA Tournament with a positive COVID test. He’s a gamer who plays hard-nosed defense and is comfortable handling the ball or playing on the wing. A dual lefty PG look in the backcourt should be fun to watch this season.
Young, a third lefty in the backcourt, earned Honorable Mention All-Big Ten accolades after starting 20 games for the Scarlet Knights and leading the team in usage when on the floor. His brother, Joe, was a star at Oregon, and now Jacob looks to make his own mark on the program. Like Harmon, Young can run point or play off the ball; he’s blazing fast in transition and shot a 37% clip from downtown last season. Defensively, Harmon and Young will help make up for the Chris Duarte loss – both are tenacious on-ball defenders, and Young ranked 4th in the Big Ten in steal rate last year.
As alluded to earlier, Oregon mixes in a fair amount of zone and full-court pressure to its normal man schemes. Altman likes to set up a three-quarter 1-2-2 trapping press or give token man pressure the length of the floor to slow down the opposing offense. Altman’s defensive rankings have been hit or miss during his tenure, but when he has an elite shot blocker, as he does this season, his Ducks can be among the best in the country on this end of the floor. Expect Oregon to be vastly improved on defense this season.
Offensively, Oregon ranked 10th in the nation and 1st in the Pac 12 last year on an adjusted efficiency basis (KenPom). The Ducks shot the lights out from 3, took care of the ball, and beat teams with spacing, cutting, and off-ball movement in Altman’s spread attack rather than copious isolation and/or ball screens. Altman has the personnel to be just as good on this end of the floor in 2021-22.
Bottom Line: The whole world assumes UCLA will win the Pac 12 this season, but do not count out the Oregon Ducks. Oregon has won the league four times under Altman (regular season) and has one of the most talented rosters in the country with a dangerous mix of experience and high-level recruits.