-Jim Root
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Jordan Burns, Jr., Colgate
Coach of the Year: Matt Langel, Colgate
Newcomer of the Year: Santi Aldama, Fr., Loyola (MD)
Freshman of the Year: Santi Aldama, Loyola (MD)
Tier 1
1. Colgate
Key Returners: Jordan Burns, Rapolas Ivanauskas, Will Rayman, Tucker Richardson, Jack Ferguson
Key Losses: Dana Batt, Francisco Amiel, Malcolm Regisford
Key Newcomers: Nelly Cummings (Bowling Green), Keegan Records, Malcolm Bailey, Pearson Parker, Ryan Moffatt
Lineup:
Outlook: Tennessee fans still wake up in a cold sweat thinking about the aerial bombardment they witnessed against their Vols in the NCAA Tournament’s first round last year, courtesy of the scorching (and appropriately named) Jordan Burns. He hit eight triples in that game, and the dynamic point guard is back again, looking to help lead Colgate to a second straight Big Dance.
It’s hard to overstate how incredible a job Matt Langel has done in Hamilton, aka the middle of nowhere. Patriot League coaches recently named it the worst job in the league in Jeff Goodman’s Chain of Command series, and yet the Raiders had the program’s best season in 20 years in 2018-19 and enter this year as the clear-cut favorite atop the Patriot.
Burns is a 6’0 stick of dynamite, a potent point guard who often simply outclassed his competition on the other side of the ball. His 35-point, 6-assist, 3-steal performance in the Patriot title game was a tour de force, using his quickness to get into the lane at will. He missed five games with injury in late January/early February, during which the Raiders went just 3-2; with him, they went 13-3 against conference competition. His speed has opened up a different avenue to offense, with Langel allowing his typically grinding system to play in transition a little bit more.
As good as Burns was last year (when he wasn’t limited by injury), he technically wasn’t even Colgate’s best player: that honor belonged to Rapolas Ivanauskas, the Patriot Player of the Year. He’s a versatile mismatch at 6’10, capable of scoring inside and out, and he formed a lethal pick-and-pop combination with the lightning-quick Burns. Colgate ranked 20th in the country in plays finished via PnR roll man, though for Ivanauskas, that usually meant burying an open three against a slow-to-recover big man or poorly communicated switch:
He scored 1.2 points per possession on such plays, per Synergy, and the threat of his shooting often opened up lanes for Burns to knife through:
Aided by having a stretch five like Ivanauskas, the Raiders ultimate strength on the offensive end is their ability to spread the floor with four or five potent shooters at a time. Will Rayman connected on 44% of his threes and can play either forward spot, while Jack Ferguson and Tucker Richardson will command extended closeouts on the wing, as well. Burns will also get to play off the ball a little more this year thanks to Bowling Green transfer Nelly Cummings, a guard who was erratic in his freshman campaign but should settle nicely into Langel’s system. Freshman Ryan Moffatt will hopefully provide more depth on the perimeter, but that could be a slight concern if he’s not ready right away.
The biggest question, though, is interior defense and finding bodies other than Ivanauskas and Rayman (who, as mentioned, will play the 3 at times). Two other freshmen, Keegan Records and Malcolm Bailey, have size and complementary games: Records is a 235-pound true center, while Bailey is a thinner, bouncier type. Dana Batt and Malcolm Regisford were the team’s primary post defenders and shot-blockers last year, so if either rookie is ready to play, Langel will be able to avoid having Ivanauskas body up against bulky centers too often. For similar reasons, Langel will also mix in a 2-3 or a 3-2 in minutes with Ivanauskas at the 5. Per Synergy, the Raiders’ defense was elite in zone: 0.81ppp, 91st percentile (unadjusted for competition).
Bottom Line: Colgate returns plenty of talent, particularly in the form of perimeter shooting, and having a fully healthy Burns for the entire Patriot season tilts the scales even further in the Raiders’ favor. I have some slight concerns about the losses of Batt and Regisford given their importance in setting the tone physically, protecting the rim, and on the offensive glass, but those are minor and won’t preclude Langel & Co. from winning the conference again. Against top shelf competition in the non-conference (at Clemson, at Syracuse, at Auburn, at Cincy), though, it might make Colgate vulnerable in the paint.
Tier 2
2. Bucknell
Key Returners: Jimmy Sotos, Avi Toomer, Bruce Moore, John Meeks, Andrew Funk, Paul Newman
Key Losses: Nate Sestina (grad transfer), Kimbal Mackenzie
Key Newcomers: Malachi Rhodes, Xander Rice, Alex Timmerman, Jake van der Heijden
Lineup:
Outlook: The annual juggernaut in the Patriot appears to have been unseated, at least temporarily. Before last year, Bucknell had taken the NCAA auto-bid in four of the prior eight seasons, racking up a staggering 106-26 league record in that span. The Bison ended up tying with Colgate atop the league last year, as well, but the Patriot Tournament Championship may have been a changing of the guard, as the Raiders spanked the Bison. Following the graduation of Kimbal Mackenzie and Nate Sestina’s decision to transfer, Colgate will now will be the clear favorite this year.
Let’s not bury Bucknell quite yet, though. Nathan Davis has won or tied for the conference title in all four seasons at the helm, and his uptempo offense has consistently been one of the Patriot’s best. He’ll have the luxury of a veteran point guard in Jimmy Sotos running the show, an elite passer who will be asked to create his own offense more frequently without Mackenzie and Sestina. A penchant for turnovers hampered his efficiency, but his decision-making should improve in his second year as a full-time starter.
Two other starters return, both of whom fit well into Davis’ scheme. Avi Toomer is a lockdown perimeter defender who excels in transition offensively, and he can also bury an open perimeter jumper if left open. On the interior, Bruce Moore should take over as the primary offensive option for an offense that loves to play through a post threat in the half court. Nana Foulland and Sestina are gone, but the show must go on inside:
Paul Newman will also ascend into a more prominent role as a paint scorer after flashing potential there, especially since Moore is capable of spacing out to the three-point line as a stretchy forward. John Meeks is the only reserve guaranteed minutes in the frontcourt, with a bevy of freshmen and bit players vying for minutes. My bets are on Jake van der Heijden, a knockdown shooter, and Alex Timmerman, a beast of a human at 6’9, 294 pounds, who should be able to overpower foes in brief stretches. Meeks may end up starting as a bigger wing, although sophomores Andrew Funk and Walter Ellis will also want to carve out larger roles this year at the 2 and 3.
Defensively, Davis is as devout a man-to-man proponent as you’ll find. The Bison were in man 99.8% of the time last year, per Synergy, and Toomer will be tasked with guarding the opposition’s best scorer nearly every night. The overall goal is to force difficult shots: the Bison won’t generate many turnovers, but they also will run opponents off the three-point line and force them into the midrange or into their considerable size near the rim. Newman swatted nearly 9% of opposing shots while on the court, and he should become one of the best rim protectors in the conference.
Bottom Line: Bucknell loses its clear top two offensive options, but players have a habit of improving throughout their careers in Lewisburg. They may be a notch below Colgate after the Raiders “bucked” the trend at the top of the Patriot, but with Davis on the sidelines and Sotos, Moore, and Toomer on the hardwood, the Bison will be right back in mix atop the standings.
3. American
Key Returners: Sa’eed Nelson, Mark Gasperini, Stacy Beckton, Jacob Boonyasith, Marvin Bragg
Key Losses: Sam Iorio (transfer), Larry Motuzis
Key Newcomers: Jamir Harris (Minnesota), Ben Lubarsky, Kelton Samore, Bradley Nalley
Lineup:
Outlook: Mike Brennan has the Eagles back on the upswing after a three-year dip from 2016-2018, during which American went 26-65 (17-37) and finished outside of KenPom’s top 300 each year. Some slight tweaks to the offense, a much-improved defense, and a unique individual star pushed the Eagles back to respectability in 2019, and with several of the most crucial pieces returning from that roster, American should have high hopes on ascending back into the Patriot’s upper echelon. Winning the league and earning the program’s first NCAA Tournament bid since 2014 will be a challenge, but with Sa’eed Nelson pulling the strings offensively, the sky is the limit.
Nelson is the maestro behind what should be one of the Patriot’s best attacks. He’s a relentless driver off the dribble, using his elite quickness and willingness to create contact to blow by defenders and earn free points via the charity stripe. Brennan will spread the floor around him with shooters and let him create advantages off the bounce, dishing out for open threes or dumping off to one of the team’s two centers (Mark Gasperini, Josh Alexander) if the defense overplays his drives. Nelson led the Patriot in % of minutes played, usage rate, and free throw rate, ranked second in steal rate, and was fifth in assist rate. He carries a gigantic burden, and the offense flailed without his creation: 1.09ppp with him, per Hoop Lens, compared to 0.90ppp when he sat.
The other crucial part of the offense is that center rotation with Gasperini and Alexander. The four-out alignment leaves plenty of single-coverage opportunities for the big men, and the Eagles ranked 12th in the country in shots finished via post up (per Synergy). Both players scored effectively in such scenarios (67th and 69th percentile, respectively), but Gasperini’s passing was irreplaceable when he went to the bench. He can dismantle defensive rotations by finding the right open shooter, and the on/off numbers made his impact clear:
Clearly, he had a major impact on the defensive end, as well. Brennan plays exclusively man-to-man, and Gasperini was far more familiar with the rotations while also showing more mobility against the pick-and-roll. Both the passing and the defensive impact should improve in Alexander’s second year in the program, though, and avoiding a drop-off when Gasperini takes a seat would go a long way towards pushing the Eagles up the standings.
With the crucial point guard and center spots spoken for, Brennan will need to fill in the lineup between them. As mentioned, he wants to have a plethora of shooting around his key scorers, meaning veterans Stacy Beckton and Jacob Boonyasith are easy choices for minutes. Beckton is a versatile scorer and a highly disruptive defender, as well, and Boonyasith can guard multiple positions with his strong frame (6’3, 215 pounds). Minnesota transfer Jamir Harris is nearly a lock to start, as well, bringing in Power 6-level athleticism on the wing while also being a willing and able jump shooter; he should be one of the most impactful newcomers in the entire conference. Brennan never uses a deep bench, but Marvin Bragg and Yilret Yiljep will see time, and if any of the incoming guards – JUCO transfer Jack Sorenson, freshmen Ben Lubarsky or Bradley Nalley – can knock down threes at a high rate, they’ll have a higher chance at early playing time.
Brennan desperately wants to run opponents off the three-point line, so his guards must be able to extend, and American’s defensive point distributions illustrate his priorities:
American opponents helped out by shooting sub-30% from deep, a number that is likely to regress to the mean this year, meaning there’s some risk in trusting the Eagles’ defense to hold up to the same level.
Bottom Line: Nelson and Gasperini give Brennan two high-level pieces to build around, and Harris could quickly play at an all-conference level, as well. With a veteran point guard, Brennan has also let the Eagles run selectively, trusting Nelson to make intelligent choices on when to smash the gas pedal. The league behind Colgate looks up for grabs, and Brennan has shown the capability in the past to coach a Patriot champion, positioning the Eagles well for a strong campaign.
4. Loyola (MD)
Key Returners: Andrew Kostecka, Chuck Champion, Isaiah Hart, Jaylin Andrews, KaVaughn Scott, Brent Holcombe (injury), Kenny Jones, Casmir Ochiaka
Key Losses: None
Key Newcomers: Santi Aldama, Golden Dike, Cam Spencer, Garren Davis
Lineup:
Outlook: Perhaps I should not be the one writing the Loyola (MD) preview, given that I bet against the Greyhounds an astounding 20 times last year while betting on them zero times. In my defense, I went 12-7-1, and the Greyhounds really struggled after forward Brent Holcombe went down with an injury right before the Patriot season started. He’s back and healthy now, though, and so is basically the entire rotation – Loyola ranks 13th in the country in percentage of minutes returning, per barttorvik.com. That continuity naturally leads to optimism, but it’s the incoming freshman class that could really lift the ceiling in Baltimore.
In his second year, coach Tavaras Hardy brought in one of the most heralded mid-major recruiting classes in the country. Kevin Sweeney, aka @CBB_Central, broke it down here, noting that a Spanish pipeline has provided multiple potential stars in the Patriot League. Even with Holcombe back, both Santi Aldama and Golden Dike will have chances to start immediately, and the two complementary players were tremendous for Spain in the FIBA U18 European Championships. The MVP of that event, Aldama is thinner and more skilled, capable of extending out beyond the three-point line as a shooter and smart passer:
He’s a fluid athlete, and his distribution skills could be a major weapon given the scoring weapons in the backcourt (more to come on that). Dike is more of a natural post player; his footwork and touch around the rim are impressive given his youth. KaVaughn Scott and Casmir Ochiaka will provide valuable experience off the bench after starting a combined 32 games last year.
Both should help stabilize a defense that bled points, adding dimensions of shot-blocking and physicality to the back line of a unit that was essentially “steal or bust” last year. Hardy, a former assistant under Bill Carmody and John Thompson III, employed plenty of zone, mixing in the 1-3-1 for which both of his old bosses were known. Hardy even “pressed” full court 15% of the time with a 2-2-1 alignment, although it wasn’t a mechanism for trapping, instead serving to slow down the offense and then fall back into the zone. Simple luck may also help the defense: opponents shot 39.3% from 3 (350th in the country) and 77.0% from the FT line (352nd); positive regression is a near certainty.
The other primary reason for optimism is the presence of a returning star in Andrew Kostecka. Kostecka took a torch to the “typical” developmental curve last season, going from a solid yet unspectacular role player as a sophomore to an efficient alpha who ranked third in the conference in usage, eighth in true shooting percentage, first in steal rate, and – perhaps most shockingly – eighth in block rate. His perimeter shot reached to “you must respect it” levels, and that made it easier to attack off the bounce and get to the rim, where he finished at an excellent 67.8%, per Hoop Math, while drawing plenty of contact and earning free points at the stripe. With veteran point guard Isaiah Hart and multiple wing options all back – steady senior Chuck Champion, defensive pest Jaylin Andrews, and combo guard Kenny Jones – the perimeter attack should be even more potent this season. Freshmen Cam Spencer (brother of Pat, who went from lacrosse star to Northwestern hooper) and Garren Davis also may crack the rotation, though there’s only so many minutes to go around with the Greyhounds moving away from four-guard lineups.
Being a Carmody and Thompson disciple means the offense will have some Princeton influence, with plenty of cutting and off-ball movement while limiting pick-and-roll and isolation. Aldama is the perfect big to play through: he will make great decisions in the high post as players like Kostecka and Hart cut off him or fly by for dribble handoffs, and Holcombe was terrific in a similar role before getting hurt last year. A frontcourt of Aldama and Holcombe also puts two extra shooters on the floor, further lifting defenders and allowing Kostecka to feast via the drive.
Bottom Line: They Greyhounds haven’t played into the upper tier of the Patriot since the days of Jimmy Patsos (2004-13), but Hardy has the roster and the coaching background to elevate Loyola (MD) this year. If Aldama and Dike both pick up the system quickly, the upside here is considerable, even all the way to challenging for an NCAA berth. Hardy hasn’t proven it yet, though, so I’ll hedge my bets a little and keep them in the middle of the pack to start. But if the two Spaniards show out early, I’ll be ready to give the Greyhounds’ rating a rapid uptick.
5. Lehigh
Key Returners: Jordan Cohen, James Karnik, Jeameril Wilson, Marques Wilson, Nic Lynch
Key Losses: Kyle Leufroy, Lance Tejada, Pat Andree (grad transfer)
Key Newcomers: Jake Betlow, Reed Fenton, Evan Taylor, Jakob Alamudun, Andrei Arion
Lineup:
Outlook: The fire department in Bethlehem, PA, is likely thrilled to see last season end for Lehigh, as the Mountain Hawks’ flammable perimeter shooting torched countless nets. They led the country in 3P% by nearly a full percentage point, with four lights-out gunners wreaking havoc on defenses throughout the Patriot (and beyond). However, Lehigh’s own defense wasn’t exactly the Steel Curtain of Pennsylvania fame, and with three of the four flamethrowers exiting the program, the Mountain Hawks will need to rediscover their own identity this year.
Coach Brett Reed’s teams have consistently thrived on pinpoint marksmanship and ball movement, particularly over the last four years with Kyle Leufroy leading the way. Now that he and fellow sniper Lance Tejada have graduated (plus Pat Andree transferring), Reed must decide if his younger players can fill similar roles, or if he needs to re-tool the approach entirely. He specifically seeks to recruit shooters, so there certainly are a few waiting in the wings (and Jordan Cohen is back after a tremendous campaign from all over the court), but repeating last year’s performance seems a near-impossibility.
Cohen should lead the attack after starting every contest last year; he ranked 22nd nationally in True Shooting % (weights threes and FTs) and can create for others. Reed loves to have multiple ball-handlers on the court, though, so freshmen Jake Betlow and Andrei Arion will have the opportunity to play right away if they can distinguish themselves. Marques Wilson’s return from injury helps, but he’s much more of a complementary, standstill shooting option than a dynamic creator. Freshman wings Evan Taylor and Reed Fenton will battle Wilson for starting roles, and Fenton’s shooting ability will be difficult for (Brett) Reed to resist.
Reed will probably hearken back to the Tim Kempton days of playing through a big man thanks to the presence of James Karnik. The skilled big man took advantage of the space created by Lehigh’s army of shooters last year, and with an added year of development, he should become more of a focal point. The same is true of sophomore Nic Lynch, a similar player who lacked the same touch around the rim as Karnik in his rookie campaign. The two centers very rarely played together last year, but Reed has hinted that we may see the towering combo at times.
As mentioned, though, the defense lagged far behind the offense last year, a consistent theme under Reed. Per KenPom’s adjusted efficiency ratings, that imbalance (offense > defense) has been the case for eight of the last ten seasons, as the same recruiting goals have left Lehigh with limited athletic weapons. That may shift somewhat this year given the increase in size at the wing/forward spots: Taylor, Fenton, and veterans Jeameril Wilson and Ed Porter (if healthy) can all guard multiple positions, and another freshman, Jakob Alamudun, may be able to contribute in a similar way.
Reed has mixed in plenty of zone over his tenure largely due to those athletic limitations, and it has often led to getting blitzed from deep. Still, this team looks similar to his 2017 edition that dominated the defensive glass, which should somewhat offset the perimeter barrage. Lynch’s sheer size at 6’11, 250 pounds can also affect finishers at the rim.
Bottom Line: This is likely a slightly different type of Lehigh squad than the past couple of years thanks to the exodus of shooting, but Cohen is still a veteran presence on the ball, and a more balanced unit should keep the Mountain Hawks competitive. Reed has finished worse than 11-7 in the Patriot just once in the past eight seasons, so I don’t expect a tumble into the bottom half, despite losing so much production.
6. Boston University
Key Returners: Max Mahoney, Javante McCoy, Alex Vilarino, Sukhmail Mathon, Walter Whyte (injury), Jonas Harper, Fletcher Tynen
Key Losses: Tyler Scanlon (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Daman Tate, Ethan Brittain-Watts
Lineup:
Outlook: The terrifying Terriers will be hunting for a bounce back season following the first sub-.500 conference finish in Joe Jones’s eight-year run as head coach. Boston U stormed onto the Patriot scene in 2013-14, winning the league outright in its first year after coming over from the America East, but despite a very solid string of success since then, Jones has never gotten the Terriers to the NCAA Tournament. He lost one starter to transfer this offseason, but the remaining four return, meaning that dip below 9-9 may be short-lived.
Chief among those veterans is senior big man Max Mahoney, around whom Jones has re-structured his offense after relying heavily on perimeter shooting through most of his tenure. He’s a force in the paint thanks to his combination of strength, crafty positioning, and touch, and the Terriers run a ton of four-out action with Mahoney going block to block, looking to seal his defender into oblivion for an easy finish. Boston’s point distribution takes a very noticeable turn inside the arc upon Mahoney’s ascension into featured status over the last two years:
Mahoney draws a ton of defensive attention, which opens up driving lanes for the guards, especially lanky wing Javante McCoy and point guard Alex Vilarino. McCoy is a three-level scorer, although adding some strength in the offseason would help his finishing at the rim, while Vilarino largely lacks a perimeter jumper at this stage. Both were outstanding in the pick-and-roll last year, with Vilarino’s efficiency being extremely impressive for a freshman lead guard. Shooting will come from wings Jonas Harper, a promising sophomore who hit a scalding 47% of his threes in his rookie season, and spot up specialist Andrew Petcash.
Jones will also pair Mahoney with center Sukhmail Mathon at times, and the two showed solid chemistry passing to each other despite cramped spacing. The defense was also 0.07ppp better when they shared the floor thanks to the added size. Stretch four Tyler Scanlon is the lone starter who left, but Jack Hemphill can space the floor at 6’9, which will allow Jones to play his four-out style around Mahoney and not compromise on size defensively. Jones also has a natural like-for-like replacement in Walter Whyte, who missed all of last season with injury after making the Patriot All-Rookie Team in 2017-18.
Whyte should also positively impact the defensive end, where BU employs a mix of schemes to make up for a lack of athleticism (outside of Whyte, perhaps the team’s best in that department). The Terriers will run some straight 2-3 zone and plenty of man-to-man, but Jones will also throw out an amoeba-like matchup zone. I wasn’t a fan of it on film – the players often looked unsure on when to follow cutters, and they were in scramble mode far too often – but the results were very similar to man-to-man, which is to say: not good. BU’s defense finished dead last in league play while getting totally thrashed in the paint, as none of the team’s bigs pose much threat as rim protectors.
Bottom Line: An offense centered around the skill and craft of Mahoney should remain solid, especially as Vilarino becomes more comfortable at point guard and fellow sophomores like Harper, Hemphill, Garrett Pascoe, and Fletcher Tyner adapt to the college game. The Terriers ranked 339th in the country in experience last year, and with some internal improvement, returning to the Patriot’s upper half is a reasonable goal.
7. Army
Key Returners: Tommy Funk, Matt Wilson, Lonnie Grayson, Alex King, John Scully, Aaron Duhart
Key Losses: Jordan Fox, John Emezie, Jacob Kessler
Key Newcomers: Chris Mann, Sam Parini, Miles Lightfoot
Lineup:
Outlook: Given all of the barriers to enrollment at each military academy, winning at them is never easy, and there’s no greater proof than Army failing to make the NCAA Tournament since the event’s inception in 1939, despite being led by Bobby Knight and Mike Krzyzewski. The limitations necessitate a creative approach, one that has become especially evident in football, where all three run the triple option: Army, Navy, and Air Force (not to mention The Citadel!). In hoops, coach Jimmy Allen (and Zach Spiker before him) have leaned hard into an uptempo, guard-centric approach that capitalizes on the Black Knights’ depth while attempting to mitigate the lack of height.
Using those smaller, quicker lineups, the Black Knights run some pretty action, aided by crisp ball movement and avoiding difficult isolation possessions, a trait that Allen has doubled down upon since taking over for Spiker:
The maestro of that approach is senior point guard Tommy Funk, a tremendously crafty passer and driver who thrives when getting others involved. He almost always plays alongside a second ball-handler, likely Aaron Duhart this year, which allows the Black Knights to push the tempo more easily. Per hoop-math, Army ranked fifth nationally in percentage of initial field goals in transition after an opponent score, which means they’re frequently going to catch undisciplined teams for easy buckets.
In transition or in the half court, Allen will spread the floor with shooters, giving the green light to fire for whoever first sees an open look. Lonnie Grayson and stretch four Alex King will see an uptick in volume this year, though King needs to rediscover his stroke (just 34/118 last year, 28.8%, but he shot 47% as a freshman). Tucker Blackwell is a smooth operator from deep, but he struggles on the defensive end, while Josh Caldwell is nearly the inverse player on the wing. Freshman forward Chris Mann may see some minutes at both the 3 and the 4 as an athletic ‘tweener, but the offense may dip slightly without the shooting of Jordan Fox, John Emezie, and Jacob Kessler.
Matt Wilson was the team’s lone “true” big last year, dominating the defensive glass (10th in the country in D-Reb rate), firing outlet passes to Funk & Co., and running rim to rim and often getting easy finishes off dimes from Funk. Allen brought in three potential freshman contributors in the paint, and if any of Sam Parini, Ben Jensen, or Miles Lightfoot are able to contribute, that will bring sorely needed depth and allow King to remain at the 4 spot. Lightfoot, the younger brother of Kansas’s Mitch, has intriguing pedigree and was a monster shot swatter in high school.
Any shot-blocking would be like a waterfall in Army’s paint defense desert after the Black Knights ranked 352nd nationally in block rate. Wilson is pretty ground-bound (I’m being kind), preferring to clear space for a rebound instead. Allen ran almost exclusively man-to-man last year, but the diminutive backcourt was often exploited by bigger wings on drives to the hoop.
Bottom Line: Army is well-coached and has an excellent senior point guard, two positive indicators in a league that is a little in flux behind Colgate. If Allen can find enough shooting to replace Fox and Emezie, Army could rise higher than this, though knocking off the Raiders and earning that elusive first Big Dance ticket may be too tough an ask.
Tier 3
8. Lafayette
Key Returners: Alex Petrie, Justin Jaworski, Lukas Jarrett, EJ Stephens, Isaac Suffren, Myles Cherry, Kyle Stout, Dylan Hastings, Tyrone Perry, Sean Good
Key Losses: Paulius Zalys
Key Newcomers: Leo O’Boyle, Neal Quinn
Lineup:
Outlook: Fran O’Hanlon enters year 25 at Lafayette, and the longtime Patriot League veteran hopes a roster packed with experience can rediscover the winning ways that have largely abandoned him in recent years. The Leopards haven’t posted a winning record in the league since 2013 (though they did make the 2015 NCAA Tournament after going 9-9), the last year before the conference expanded from eight teams to ten. O’Hanlon was ahead of the curve in his offensive approach – recruit knockdown shooters, spread the floor, play through skilled forwards – and the advantage gained from such innovation has lessened quite a bit through the years.
But! He does have the personnel to execute it, led by two of the purest strokes in the league: guards Alex Petrie and Justin Jaworski. The two combined to hit 150 threes at a remarkable 44.5% clip, with Jaworski ranking second in the entire country at 50%. Petrie, meanwhile, is a conscience-less bomber, ranking second nationally in a stat of his own: percentage of shots taken while on the court. O’Hanlon altered his rotation to bring Petrie off the bench like an instant jolt of Four Loko for the offense, as Petrie’s unlimited range and confidence immediately demanded special attention.
The only loss off the roster is a big one: forward Paulius Zalys led the team in assist percentage, often serving as the triggerman at the free throw line with Petrie, Jaworski, Isaac Suffren, and EJ Stephens cutting off him or receiving handoffs. He came off the bench in most contests, but he was massively impactful on both ends of the court:
Lukas Jarrett has the savvy to step into that role and should know the system after being in it for three years, but otherwise, the roster lacks options there. Dylan Hastings is a stretch big who struggled to make shots, and Myles Cherry and Sean Good are more “traditional” big men (Cherry a burly rebounder, Good a lanky shot blocker).
O’Hanlon’s motion system helps negate the need for a true point guard or creator, which is good, because this roster doesn’t really have one. Jaworksi is smart and moves the ball well, and Tyrone Perry showed some potential despite being limited by injuries, but mostly it’s going to be Petrie and Stephens playing out of position. Kyle Stout is another smooth-shooting wing, and O’Hanlon will have to figure out how to properly allocate the minutes after basically letting everyone play last year (16th nationally in bench minutes, nine guys started 7+ games).
Defense is not something O’Hanlon is terribly interested in – ranked 310th or worse in KenPom AdjDE in each of the last six seasons, best finish since 2001 is 249th – so this preview won’t be either. I will note, however, that the Leopards will mix in a zone here and there to keep foes honest. Smart teams will crack it like an egg, though.
Bottom Line: Fran, Fran, the Lafayette Man makes a clear effort to overload his team’s roster with shooting and skill, and the team’s results show it. His best outfit in recent memory, in 2014-15, made the NCAA Tournament and had the country’s 38th-best offense, per AdjOE (they promptly gave up 1.45ppp to Villanova in a 40-point demolition). This team will have similar defensive concerns outside of Jarrett and Good’s rim protection, and the ability to generate quality shots without Zalys is similarly concerning enough to have Lafayette near the bottom of the Patriot.
9. Navy
Key Returners: John Carter Jr., Cam Davis, Evan Wieck, Luke Loehr, Greg Summers
Key Losses: Hasan Abdullah, George Kiernan
Key Newcomers: Sean Yoder, BJ Knight, Nate Allison, Daniel Deaver, Charles West, PJ Fenton
Lineup:
Outlook: One former coach of a Big Ten also-ran that ended up in the Patriot League retired this offseason, but one still remains: former Penn State boss Ed DeChellis is still in command of the fleet at Navy. The last guy to get the Nittany Lions to the NCAA Tournament (in 2011), DeChellis has brought his grinding offense and mix of zone defenses to Annapolis, and while I wouldn’t say he’s “thrived,” he’s built them into a solid Patriot team year after year.
The fit between DeChellis and a military academy makes a ton of sense: his system requires discipline and physicality, and there are a couple fellas like that at the Naval Academy. His better teams battle for loose balls and earn extra possessions on the offensive glass; starting center Evan Wieck is the epitome of this, having led the Patriot in offensive rebounding rate. Wieck also has solid footwork in the post, and the offense will need to run through him quite a bit more this year following the losses of point guard Hasan Abdullah and forward George Kiernan. Fellow big men Luke Loehr and Richard Njoku will also get after it on the boards, though neither are offensive weapons, and Greg Summers is actually a tremendous glass-eater on the wing.
With Abdullah gone, Josiah Strong was expected to lead the offense as a sophomore, but he transferred to Iowa Western CC, leaving a glaring perimeter creation void. Cam Davis will probably be forced to slide over to the PG slot, but he’s more effective spotting up off the ball, so DeChellis will hope a freshman can handle the rock right away. Sean Yoder is tough, smart, and has a pretty jumper, but Davis will still have to play point at times, which will lower the offense’s ceiling. The Midshipmen already had the worst attack in the Patriot, per AdjOE, meaning this year could be particularly ugly (aside from Wieck’s outstanding paint work).
John Carter’s development could be a difference-maker, though. He was solid as a freshman playing big minutes, playing some of his best ball down the stretch against Bucknell and Boston U in the regular season’s final week. He has the size and shooting potential to be a 12-15ppg scorer, but his finishing at the rim has a long way to go (just 46.8% last year).
Abdullah is also a big loss defensively after ranking 59th, 9th, and 19th in the country in steal rate the last three years. DeChellis would unleash him as an on-ball pest at the top of a 1-3-1 or an extended 2-3 zone, and the Midshipmen will likely struggle to generate turnovers without him. They’ll have to continue to dominate the boards and limit easy shots in the paint. As a result, Navy’s zone will be vulnerable to barrages from three-point land against hot-shooting opponents.
Bottom Line: Navy will lean hard into the “physical, grinding” identity that DeChellis has cultivated throughout his years in Happy Valley and Annapolis. This could be the best rebounding team in the Patriot, but finding enough offense to hang around most games will be a challenge. Playing through Wieck as often as possible will limit the burden on a young backcourt, but the Midshipmen will still need Carter and Davis to continue to emerge as threats on the wing to avoid defenses from stacking the paint.
10. Holy Cross
Key Returners: Austin Butler, Matt Faw, Connor Niego (injury), Kyle Copeland
Key Losses: Jehyve Floyd, Jacob Grandison (transfer), Caleb Green (transfer), Patrick Benzan
Key Newcomers: Joey Reilly, Drew Lowder, Ryan Wade, Joe Pridgen, Ciaran Sandy
Lineup:
Outlook: A tearful goodbye is in order as Bill Carmody sails off into the Undying Lands of retirement. The 67-year-old’s resume doesn’t exactly scream “elite” – only a 51.8% winning percentage, zero winning conference seasons in his final 17 coaching seasons (!!!) – but he was a sharp basketball mind, rolling out distinctive schemes on both ends of the court. He’s the type of niche coach that we love at 3MW: someone that celebrates the varying options available to college basketball coaches, shunning the homogeneity to which the sport is slowly but surely succumbing.
The biggest knock on Carmody was an inability to consistently bring in talent, which of course was hindered by the academic standards at both Northwestern and Holy Cross. Still, that knock is what likely dooms the Crusaders to the depths of the Patriot this year, as transfer and graduation losses leave a thin and unproven roster to new boss Brett Nelson. Considering that Nelson is likely to dramatically shift away from Carmody’s bread and butter on each end – the Princeton offense and an intricate 1-3-1 zone – heavy roster turnover makes a great deal of sense.
Using that Princeton offense, last year’s Crusaders led the country in possessions finished via cuts, but Nelson comes from the tutelage of Billy Donovan and, more recently, Steve Wojciechowski, so expect to see far more transition opportunities and spread pick-and-roll in the half court. Contrast last year’s Marquette offensive play distribution (on the left) with Holy Cross’s (on the right), and the coming change is obvious (numbers per Synergy):
Marquette play distribution, 2018-19
Holy Cross play distribution, 2018-19
Two freshmen seem the most likely candidates to run those pick-and-rolls: Joey Reilly and Drew Lowder. Reilly was all set to play a year at a prep school before Nelson took over, and the tough guard from Connecticut is my pick to start at point guard with his blend of scoring and clever creation with the ball in his hands. Lowder is no slouch himself, having played alongside star recruits Isaiah Thompson (Purdue), Keion Brooks (Kentucky), and Trayce Jackson-Davis (Indiana) in the EYBL last year, and Nelson could opt to play both rookies simultaneously for stretches. Austin Butler is the only proven scorer on the roster, and he will likely enjoy the added freedom he’ll have under Nelson, but the remaining wing rotation – junior Kyle Copeland, freshmen Ryan Wade and Joe Pridgen – is full of question marks. The transition percentage is low in that Marquette screenshot, but Nelson has made it quite clear that he plans to push tempo.
Jehyve Floyd is gone as an offensive hub at both the high post and on the block (led the team in assist rate last year), but Nelson will still play through the interior at times. Connor Niego and Matt Faw profile more as stretch bigs, but their skill and passing vision could be used in more of an inside-out approach, as well. Marlon Hargis and Ciaran Sandy are other athletic forward options, but the overall youth and lack of depth on the front line are inevitably going to cause problems.
Defensively, the transition to man-to-man will be a painful one. The Crusaders are young and lack versatile athletes, especially with Floyd’s exit - he won the league’s Defensive Player of the Year award last season. That means Nelson may have to mix in some zone almost by necessity, though the days of Carmody’s tricky 1-3-1 are gone. Rebounding will be a serious issue, as will preventing frequent penetration by guards like Jordan Burns (Colgate), Jimmy Sotos (Bucknell), and Sa’eed Nelson (American). Nelson may try to pressure some as a curveball, but I just don’t see the difference-makers to make that style work.
Bottom Line: Nelson taking over will be like taking a defibrillator to the heart of the Holy Cross hoops team after Carmody’s crawling ways (and generally lifeless win/loss results), but that won’t translate to immediate success in Worcester. A young roster will focus on development and adapting to the new system, with brighter days hopefully to come in the future.