-Jim Root
Welcome to Season 2 of Root’s (Power) Rankings! For those new to the program, this is essentially my mini playground to talk about the country’s elite squads, picking out a point or two to make about each one as the season progresses. The rankings are highly fluid at this point (and largely still anchored to my preseason projections), but considering the beefy slate of marquee matchups coming this week, these are sure to change rapidly. Let’s hop into the first edition….
1. Gonzaga
In my preseason of Gonzaga, I offered hope that the loss of Filip Petrusev to a professional career in Europe might actually be a positive for the Bulldogs. Part of the reason was that Drew Timme was an active volcano on the bench, just waiting to erupt in a bigger role, but an equally bigger win is playing more possessions with powerful wing Corey Kispert as the nominal power forward.
Per Hoop Lens, Gonzaga played around 450 possessions in the “three guards + Kispert” alignment all of last year (~19% of possessions), outscoring opponents by 25 points per 100 possessions. This year, Mark Few is turning to that lineup frequently (just under half the time), and the results have been even better:
Remember – that’s against Kansas, Auburn, and West Virginia - two top 10 squads and a solid SEC team (though admittedly down this year). With the addition of Andrew Nembhard via waiver, Few now has a wealth of playmakers to fill the three guard spots, meaning foes will be facing the “Kispert at the 4” lineup even more often. Yikes.
2. Baylor
The college basketball hive mind has lost its marbles over Gonzaga so far (and justifiably so), and unfortunately for Baylor, COVID took the Bears’ chance to flip that narrative on its head on Saturday. Baylor has been every bit as good as Gonzaga this year, hitting a gear in the second half against Illinois that, to be perfectly candid, I wasn’t sure they had offensively, burying shots and putting consistent pressure on an Illini pack line system that was terrific last year.
Losing the marquee matchup means Baylor will remain #2 in most minds until Gonzaga loses, an unlikelihood given the Zags’ future schedule – unless the Bulldogs and Bears are able to set a date for another meeting, a possibility to which Mark Few and Scott Drew both seem extremely open. Saturday set up perfectly for college basketball as a whole, with the 1 vs. 2 showdown featured on CBS and not up against any crucial college football matchups, so hopefully we’ll still get that game – for the greater good of college hoops.
3. Houston
The Cougars have ripped off two extremely impressive wins in their 4-0 start to the year, tapping out Texas Tech in a basketbrawl in Fort Worth and then wearing down South Carolina at home. The latter victory is mind-boggling in context: Houston was down its head coach (Kelvin Sampson), associate head coach (Kellen Sampson), the Preseason Player of the Year in the American (Caleb Mills), and a 17.3 PPG scorer (Marcus Sasser), and yet it was Houston that had the halftime adjustments and extra gas in the tank to turn an early seven-point deficit in the second stanza into a relatively comfortable 10-point victory. Freshmen Tramon Mark and Jamal Shead filled in admirably for the injured guards (I have a feeling I’ll be writing more about Mark in this space in the future), and big man Justin Gorham was a defensive dynamo, collecting four steals and two blocks in 39 minutes.
Houston now eyes a glorious stream of W’s straight down its KenPom schedule projection, a feat that, as far as I can tell, is currently only matched by Gonzaga, Baylor, Vermont, and Loyola Chicago:
Obviously, the bumps in the road will be frequent this season, but Houston’s tremendous depth of weaponry makes the Cougars as well-suited as anyone to traverse such treacherous terrain.
4. Michigan State
The Spartans have shown some vulnerability against inferior in-state competition lately, letting Western Michigan hang around for 33 minutes and playing with fire against Detroit (imagine if Antoine Davis had not gone 0-of-9 from beyond the arc…), but those performances cannot wipe away the good vibes of blowing the doors off Notre Dame and controlling the entire second half against Duke at Cameron Indoor. We thought this Spartan team would take some time to mesh and sort out roles following the loss of program anchors Cassius Winston and Xavier Tillman, but it’s been a relatively smooth transition into 2020-21.
A big reason for that is the return of veteran wing Josh Langford from injury. His presence and leadership as a fifth-year senior seems to steady the Spartans, and there’s no doubt the Detroit game would have gone differently had he not been held out for precautionary reasons. Langford was never a terribly dynamic driver, but he can knock down perimeter shots, and he’s a borderline-phenomenal perimeter defender – just ask Duke wings Wendell Moore and DJ Steward about him (and Aaron Henry) after the pair combined to go 0-for-16 from the field with four turnovers. And honestly, it’s just awesome to see him out there again after he went nearly two full calendar years without playing a game (December 29, 2018, to November 25, 2020).
5. West Virginia
Exhibit 1274 on why you should never, ever, ever believe the reports that a terrible shooter has suddenly added a reliable perimeter jumper to his game: Oscar Tshiebwe. After several reports of Oscar adding to his game, the defense would like to present the following clips as evidence to the contrary:
He has not taken any other jumpers this year, perhaps because both of those mega-bricks look like the foundation for a lovely new starter home. Georgetown certainly wasn’t having any of it this weekend:
6. Villanova
The Wildcat offense has been terrific thus far, scoring better than 1.0 points per possession in every game. My current worry with this Nova team, though, is that the interior defense lacks a true presence in the vein of Daniel Ochefu or Omari Spellman. Guards aren’t afraid of driving to the rim at all (see Matt Coleman’s rim-shaking dunk on Sunday), and many more opposing centers may dominate inside the way that Virginia Tech’s Keve Aluma did in the Wildcats’ OT loss (23 points on 9-of-14 shooting, eight rebounds, two blocks).
Eric Dixon is promising, but he has yet to make an impact on a game that wasn’t against Hartford, so it’s hard to bank on him long-term just yet. Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree is dealing with a stress fracture that could keep him out past Christmas; he’d be a nice plug into the defense, but the injury sounds extremely dicey. If neither of those two can play consistent minutes, Villanova will be vulnerable at the bucket, even with such a lanky and switchable lineup of interchangeable forwards and wings, putting even more pressure on the prolific offense to make shots.
7. Tennessee
Did you forget about Tennessee? I have to keep reminding myself that the Vols will indeed be playing basketball this season, as they have been the highest profile squad yet to debut thanks to COVID issues in the program. That’s expected to change tonight, as the Colorado Buffaloes are heading to Knoxville to give Rocky Top nation a chance to see its potential Final Four contender.
Right now, Rick Barnes’ squad is benefiting from the Mystery Mirage Effect (name pending), meaning that since we have yet to see the Vols and see their flaws, we can still paint a pretty picture in our minds of what this team could look like. Think Duke fans convincing themselves that Jon Scheyer is THE GUY to succeed Coach K, simply because he hasn’t taken another job and proven himself to be the proverbial pumpkin (like Jeff Capel, or Bobby Hurley, or Steve Wojciechowski, or Chris Collins, or…). This “Mystery Mirage Effect” also applies to draft prospects who sit out the year (James Wiseman), blind dates, etc. – I’m sure there’s a perfect person/thing to name it after, I just haven’t gotten there (maybe it’s the Jon Scheyer Effect). Open to suggestions!
8. Kansas
Has the Bill Self school of big men lost its accreditation? At the very least, David McCormack has not received his diploma, as the massive center has underwhelmed lofty expectations of a junior year breakout following Udoka Azubuike’s departure. He has only hit double figures in scoring once (against overmatched, non-Division I Washburn), and averages of 4.0 RPG and 0.3 BPG in just 16.0 MPG against D-I foes are perhaps even more alarming.
Before I pile on too much, though, it’s worth noting that he’s been struggling with a knee injury:
Kansas junior big man David McCormack is banged up heading into the Kentucky game and a matchup with grad transfer Oliver Sarr. He wore a knee brace starting the second half against St. Joe’s.
“He’s OK,” (Coach Bill) Self said. “He did not practice Saturday. He did minimal, minimal stuff Sunday but we hope he can do more today and go be ready for [Tuesday]. He’s nicked up a little bit but I don’t think it’s anything from a structural standpoint that’s going to keep him from being out there and competing.”
The Jayhawks will undoubtedly need their behemoth big man during the grind of Big 12 play (West Virginia’s bash brothers send their regards, as does the Texas trampoline troupe), so the curriculum needs to speed up as soon as possible.
9. Illinois
The clear National Player of the Year favorite also resides in the Big Ten, but for my money, Ayo Dosunmu is sitting #2 in that race at this early point in the season. He’s rescued his three-point shooting from the depths, currently hitting at a 47.1% rate (compared to 29.0% last year), and he almost single-handedly dragged the Illini to a victory against a game Ohio squad back on November 27th (27-8-7 on 10-21 shooting — not bad!).
Also: his assists are up, his turnovers are down, he’s getting to the free throw line more, he’s more active on the glass on both ends…Dosunmu has improved basically across the board, delivering on every optimistic projection for him thus far. If Illinois is going to win at Duke tonight, it will likely be because Dosunmu is the clear best player on the court, a devastating driver and transition weapon whose decision-making and shooting have evolved a level, presenting a challenge that the young Blue Devils simply aren’t ready to face at this point.
10. Texas
Let me kick it over to our buddy Sam Vecenie for the topic of our Texas section:
A terrific point! I’ve watched large portions of four Texas games already, and Jones is simply terrifying. He’s long and active defensively (although it’s kind of wild he hasn’t blocked a shot yet), and his blossoming offensive game opens up the court so much for the Texas guards. Jericho Sims, his platoon partner at center, is a terrific athlete and vicious dunker in his own right, but having a 6’11 guy that can do all three of these things changes the game:
Sims is a senior who has started 56 career games already, so I get that nudging him down the minutes totem pole could ruffle some feathers, but I truly believe the best version of Texas involves Jones manning the 5 spot for the Longhorns.
11. Creighton
It’s still early, and the competition has not been great yet, but if we can’t overreact to those results, then what are we even doing here? That said, how great has Antwann Jones been for the Bluejays thus far? The Memphis transfer has added a third versatile wing to go along with Damien Jefferson and Denzel Mahoney (both of whom were also transfers), further opening up the lineup possibilities for Greg McDermott. He’s an opportunistic scorer with some juice off the bounce, and he’s getting to the line at an elite rate so far using his strong frame:
Also – a quick tip of the cap to Ryan Kalkbrenner, the freshman who has seemingly passed Jacob Epperson as the token “true center” in the Bluejay rotation. The freshman from St. Louis has been terrific in limited minutes, and if he maintains that trajectory, Creighton will actually be able to battle with the big boys of the Big East (Theo John, Josh Carlto, Ike Obiagu, Zach Freemantle, Nate Watson, Bryce Golden, etc.). Again – lineup optionality is never a bad thing.
12. Iowa
Luka Garza was clearly not very happy that Luka Garza did not win the National Player of the Year award last season (sorry, Sporting News – you were the exception), so Luka Garza decided to become even more of a dominant monster on the basketball court to render that debate meaningless. He has seemingly improved in every way – making more threes, getting to the line at a higher clip, making more of those free throws, blocking more shots – and quite frankly, I don’t care that he has only played a SWAC team (the preseason favorite), a MEAC team (the preseason favorite), and a Summit team that returns no one. If you’re thrashing foes to the degree that Garza is right now, you’ve comfortably earned your perch atop this year’s Player of the Year race.
Next 10, in order: Louisville, Duke, Virginia, UNC, Virginia Tech (big shrug at the ACC, as you can tell), Wisconsin, Richmond, Rutgers, Indiana, Michigan