-Jim Root
I have no introduction. Go Packers.
1. Duke (2)
2. Baylor (4)
In the Gonzaga section a few weeks back, I briefly wrote about the various ways one can go about ranking teams. A smattering of tweets from NBC’s Rob Dauster spurred me to re-examine the discussion, though, and we touched on it on Monday night’s podcast, as well. Rob openly wondered about how much the final score of a game should result in knocking a team:
If SFA’s lay-up had been a hair late, that wouldn’t have made Duke any better than it is right now. That was still a poor effort in which an ACC superpower, playing at home, got pushed to the absolute brink by a Southland team. Win or lose, Duke still laid that egg of an effort. Whether it was a win or a loss matters for NCAA Tournament seeding, but should that distinction really matter for how good a team is?
Of course, the polar opposite of that would be outright ignoring results and taking a purely predictive approach to it. That’s certainly the goal of any handicapper (and most analytics sites), discounting wins and losses to focus instead on how well a team has played and then using that data to determine who the “best teams” are on more of a forecasted basis.
Like the fence-riding loser I am, I largely reject the “black and white” nature of a debate like that, preferring to live in the lukewarm gray areas in the middle (unless I’m actually producing an updated bracketology). I can fully admit that Baylor has the country’s best resume when gauged on the strength of wins and one completely understandable loss, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they have to be ranked number one:
My “gray area” residence allows me to blend both approaches. As a result, I’m siding with the Devils here. I don’t think the resume gap is so large that it’s inexcusable to believe that Duke is the better team.
3. Gonzaga (3)
So, yeah, neither of those top two teams is actually the one perched atop the AP Poll this week. That would be Gonzaga, as poll voters largely adhere to the “you can’t drop unless you lose” line of thinking. Obviously, I disagree with that notion somewhat, but the Zags aren’t far off the pace.
One massively underrated part of Gonzaga’s success has been the play of North Texas grad transfer Ryan Woolridge. He’s shooting 50% from beyond the arc and has a 2.3:1 assist-to-turnover ratio while playing 31.7mpg for a top 10 team in the country, both of which are sneaky-huge jumps from his days in Conference USA. Mark Few’s ability to empower and optimize someone like Woolridge is truly impressive, especially when compared to another “up-transfer” from the immediately-eligible ranks:
Yes, I’m sort of picking on Keeling and UNC here, but the point remains: for Woolridge to step up in competition and actually improve in several notable categories is tremendously impressive.
4. Butler (5)
Butler’s defense has been elite this year, no question about it. The Bulldogs are 6th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency, dominating the defensive glass by rallying all five players to the boards and harassing any and all perimeter action. The Butler defense has built a shell around the basket, limiting opposing drives (45th nationally in fewest shots allowed at the rim), and the Bulldog bigs have mastered the art of verticality once foes get there:
I’ve voiced concern about three-point shooting regression in the past, and while I do think there’s some risk of that happening, another key to the Bulldogs’ defense is that they challenge almost everything. Only 36.3% of opposing jump shots quality as “unguarded,” per Synergy numbers, the 29th-lowest number in the country, underscoring just how “dogged” Butler’s perimeter defending really is.
5. Kansas (1)
It’s probably unfair to drop Kansas this far for losing to a fellow powerhouse like Baylor, especially in a game where Devon Dotson clearly wasn’t himself due to injury (hip pointer). The potential All-American point guard managed only 28 minutes, tallying just nine points and three assists while clearly lacking the same kind of turn-the-corner burst that has become his calling card. Combine that with being guarded by a tremendous perimeter defender in Davion Mitchell, and a play that might otherwise be a lay-up turns into a near-turnover:
This isn’t a long-term concern, though, per Bill Self:
"It's not one of those things that threatening to make it where you can't play, but certainly whenever you get hit it can make it uncomfortable where you're thinking about it all the time."
Thus, it shouldn’t affect KU’s prognosis for March and beyond, but in a duel atop the Big 12, it may give Baylor the edge it needs to sneak by Kansas for the title.
6. San Diego St. (6)
I had a very difficult time ordering Butler, Kansas, and San Diego State, so if you prefer SDSU at #4, I won’t debate you. The Aztecs’ biggest “knock” is an almost-loss, so if you really even felt like ranking them 1st, I probably wouldn’t up much of a fight with that, either. I’m still having some slight cognitive dissonance between San Diego State’s undeniably phenomenal results and the roster that’s producing them (a Wazzu transfer, a Vandy transfer, a Santa Clara transfer…), but that’s my problem, not yours.
The Aztecs’ challenge now will be to maintain the astronomically high level of play they’ve exhibited this year despite no longer facing off against any NCAA Tournament teams (Utah State needs to prove that wrong, at this point). For most college hoops fans, this is known as “The Gonzaga Problem,” as the Bulldogs have consistently laid waste to the WCC – even when St. Mary’s has very good years – and still found a way to consistently perform at or above expectations come March Madness (using seed as a proxy for expectations).
7. Auburn (7)
I’ll make a not-so-bold prediction that the Tigers fall from the ranks of the unbeaten this week, as Bruce Pearl’s boys face a difficult road gauntlet of at Alabama for the hoops Iron Bowl and at Florida over the weekend, two difficult road tests against teams very much in search of signature wins. A win in either game, though, would also give Auburn just its second Quadrant 1 win on the season; only Stanford and Louisville have so few Q1 conquests while also ranking in the top 20 of the NET.
The Austin Wiley versus Kerry Blackshear wrestling match in the post on Saturday should be worth the price of admission on its own, and the challenge for each guy will be to remain on the court. Wiley ranks 2nd in the country in fouls drawn per 40 minutes, while Blackshear ranks 6th; if either guy can force his adversary to the bench early with a couple quick ones, that team gains an immediate edge inside. Of course, Alabama has no intention of letting its archrival enter that game with a still-unblemished record…
8. Oregon (9)
Remember in Lost in Space, how there’s a robot that always says, “Danger, Will Robinson!” Oh, you don’t remember that? Well, in Lost in Space, there’s a robot that always says “Danger, Will Robinson!” to the main character, whose name is – you guessed it – Will Robinson. Well, Oregon opponents may need to get a robot of their own for late in games, cautioning them of the impending “Danger, Will Richardson!” (Yes, this would be warning them of Will Richardson, rather than warning Will Richardson himself, but whatever. You get the point.)
Awful intro aside, Richardson has been a revelation this year. As much (deserved) credit as Payton Pritchard gets in the Oregon backcourt, Richardson made some absolutely enormous plays himself down the stretch against Arizona. He’s gone from efficient bench player to secondary star, knifing through defenses to get crucial buckets like this:
And this:
Richardson scored seven of the Ducks’ final eight points in overtime of that huge win, and his off the bounce prowess makes his lights-out perimeter shooting (51.3%) even more deadly.
9. Florida St. (11)
Ever since he nailed a ridiculously tough game-tying triple to against Virginia Tech in last year’s ACC Tournament, I’ve all aboard the Devin Vassell breakout train. He had an easy shooting stroke and supreme confidence as a freshman, and his defensive stats portended great things on that end, as well. But even I didn’t quite see this campaign coming.
Despite having zero 20-point games under his belt, Vassell leads the ultra-balanced Seminoles in scoring at 12.3ppg, and that silky shooting stroke has carried over into this year:
His defensive breakout might actually be even more impressive, though, as he currently ranks inside the top 130 nationally in both steal rate and block rate, using his tremendous anticipation and length to constantly wreak havoc:
His complementary numbers are great, too: he has a 2.1 assist-to-turnover ratio, and his rebounding rates are quite solid while playing on a roster full of 6’7 aliens. ESPN now has him sneaking into the first round of the NBA Draft (30th to the Celtics), and The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie would peg him somewhere in the 31-50 range were he to declare this offseason. Whether he stays or goes is unclear, but right now, he might be the best two-way player in the ACC.
10. West Virginia (15)
The “knowns” for this West Virginia team were obvious: monstrous frontcourt, physical identity with Bob Huggins at the helm, potentially elite offensive rebounding. The “unknowns,” though, caused plenty of pause with prognosticators: perimeter scoring and creation, ball-handling.
West Virginia snuck into the Weave’s preseason Top 40 countdown at #39, and yours truly found reasons for optimism regarding those unknowns. Unfortunately, I focused on JUCO transfers Sean McNeil and Taz Sherman, rather than the true answer: freshman Miles McBride, who warranted only a parenthetical inclusion in my conclusion:
McBride, aka Stud McMuffin, has been much more than an afterthought, and he’s now on a run of six consecutive games in double figures, averaging 15.2ppg over that stretch while shooting 47.4% from the field and 50.0% from deep. Huggins will likely continue to bring him off the bench, but McBride is quickly emerging into the Mountaineers’ go-to option down on the perimeter.
11. Dayton (13)
The college basketball world (well, those watching Dayton hosting UMass) held its collective breath on Saturday, as Obi Toppin crumpled to the floor with an apparent leg injury. He later returned to the bench, alarmingly wearing a walking boot, but he was also sporting a jovial grin, and he told media after the game that he was fine. The official designation was “sprained ankle,” leaving his status in question for tonight’s showdown with VCU, but it sounds likely that he’ll play.
And thank goodness. Seeing the Flyers’ juggernaut of an offense take on VCU’s vaunted defensive pressure should be an absolute treat. On most possessions, Toppin will square off against 6’7, 250-pound tank engine Marcus Santos-Silva, and that ankle will be tested by Santos-Silva’s unrelenting physicality in the paint. However, VCU’s stable of lengthy wings also allows them to switch a ton, a potent weapon against Dayton’s five-shooter lineups. Assuming he’s healthy, Toppin’s ability to punish mismatches in the post should defuse some of that switching, though, because his athleticism and touch on the block will overwhelm the normally-stout VCU wing corps.
12. Wichita St. (16)
A debate that no one is having: who has the best backcourt in the country?
Did I just ask myself a question solely so I could answer it? I sure did! I think my vote goes to Baylor right now (I am somehow the world’s biggest fan of Jared Butler, MaCio Teague, and Davion Mitchell), and a few other squads obviously deserve mention (Michigan State, Kansas, Seton Hall, etc.), but a dark horse answer would be (surprise!) Wichita State.
With Dexter Dennis back in the fold following a personal leave of absence and re-emerging as the sophomore breakout star that many thought he could be, the Shockers now have five legitimate offensive threats. Dennis and Grant Sherfield come off the bench to supplement the tremendous starting trio of Tyson Etienne, Jamarius “Grandpa” Burton, and Erik Stevenson, and all five guys can shoot from deep or put the ball on the floor.
Side note: I really want “Grandpa” Burton to catch on. It’s on the team website, let’s run with this!
Next 10: Michigan St., Kentucky, Louisville, Villanova, Ohio St., Michigan, Seton Hall, Arkansas, Maryland, Colorado
Mid-Major Five:
1. Liberty
I often refer to Liberty as a “Mini Virginia” due to Ritchie McKay taking so many pages out of Tony Bennett’s book, but the comparison is really going to the extreme so far in 2020. Since the Flames lost to LSU right before the New Year, they’ve gone 4-0 to start Atlantic Sun play, allowing 46, 38, 52, and 37 points over the course of those four games. That’s…eerily UVA-esque, no?
To further the comparison, the Flames now rank 352nd nationally in adjusted tempo (Virginia is last at 353rd), and the methodical brilliance on the defensive end is going to suffocate their poor league opponents all season long. The ultimate goal is still to pile enough wins in impressive-enough fashion to give themselves a safety net should something freaky happen in the ASUN tournament, and with their numbers as solid as they currently are (22nd in the NET, 2-1 record against Q1/Q2 competition), the Flames are on track to do just that. Real Virginia went 29-3 last year before the NCAA Tournament; can Mini Virginia replicate that kind of gaudy success?
2. Yale
Yale hasn’t played a Division I game since narrowly losing at North Carolina on December 30th, a result that somehow looks dubious at this point (if Georgia Tech and Clemson can do it…). But the Bulldogs remain firmly nestled in my #2 spot thanks to a thorough dismantling of Division III Johnson & Wales University, and we’ll let them rest here peacefully before the Ivy gauntlet kicks into high gear.
3. Northern Iowa
Consensus preseason opinion had Missouri State as the clear favorite in the Missouri Valley. Blue Ribbon had the Bears ranked 1st, Busting Brackets did too, CBB Central, our very own 3MW preview, even the conference’s preseason poll. Well, Northern Iowa went to Springfield this weekend and unceremoniously took a flamethrower to consensus preseason opinion, torching the host Bears in a laughably lopsided affair (UNI led 73-39 midway through the second half).
This team now rivals the 2015 Seth Tuttle-led squad as the best offense of the Ben Jacobson era, and it’s led by a similarly devastating talent in A.J. Green. Green, a 6’4 scoring guard, is a completely different player than the 6’10 offensive fulcrum that was Tuttle, but the key point is how Jacobson structured an offense around his star’s talents. The 2015 team played through Tuttle on the block, letting his passing be the spark that burned down the opposition. This edition, on the other hand, spreads the floor with Green dictating from the top of the key, attacking off the bounce (often via pick-and-roll), forcing defenses to help and rotate. That’s two very different approaches to similar ends: a likely MVC Championship and NCAA Tournament bid.
4. Akron
A new entrant! The Zips have quietly asserted themselves as the clear top team in the MAC (apologies to Kent State), and they currently sport a sterling 13-3 (3-0) record with a win over Tulane on a neutral (that means something this year!) and three completely understandable losses: at West Virginia by 10, at Louisville by six, and against Liberty on a neutral by 13. The MAC is so incredibly balanced that it’s hard to maintain dominance for an entire season (unless you’re Nate Oats), but it is worth mentioning that, according to KenPom, the Zips are a favorite of three or more points in all of their remaining games except one.
5. Pick Your Favorite SoCon Team
I don’t really understand what I’m supposed to do with East Tennessee State, Furman, and UNC Greensboro. I know that all three of them are good, but just this week, ETSU won at UNCG and then UNCG won at Furman. So I should rank ETSU, right? Well, the Bucs lost at Furman last week, and they barely squeaked by SoCon cellar dweller VMI on Saturday, so I’ll leave this one up to you.