-Jim Root
The rankings were delayed a day this week, and I blame the Packers for that — I did not have high expectations when I chose to attend the NFC Championship, but the Cheese Men vastly underperformed even those tepid hopes. It was an awesome environment though! Whatever! College basketball!
1. Baylor (2)
I’ve spent most of the Baylor sections in here discussing their defense and Scott Drew’s coaching, but I’m just going to take a week to bask in what they’re capable of offensively, as well. Both Oklahoma schools frustrated the Bears at times with tricky defenses, but the Bears have the passers and shooters to make beautiful music at times:
This one has one unnecessary dribble from Jared Butler, but it’s still a nice bit of tic-tac-toe to beat the zone (side note: I love mixing it up and putting guards in the middle at times):
The other possibility here was recapping the Bears’ small miracle of a cover against Oklahoma State on Saturday, but I simply could not do that to all of the Cowboy backers who were unequivocally on the correct side there. Trust the process, folks.
2. Gonzaga (3)
Let’s be clear: Filip Petrusev’s injury stinks. It always makes me queasy to see bad ankle rolls like that, and it derails the campaign of a guy who was lurking on the fringes of KenPom’s kPOY race.
He should be back soon enough, and it did force Mark Few into unleashing a juggernaut of an offensive lineup that shredded BYU for a decent chunk of the second half:
Obviously, that’s not really a great defensive performance, but good luck stopping that group with five three-point shooters, at least four above average passers, at least three true dribble drive threats…the list goes on. According to Hoop Lens, that lineup has played 50 possessions together, and they’ve scored a completely absurd 1.46 points per possession (take your small sample size rebuttals elsewhere). It’s a grouping that will likely get quite a bit more run in the near future, and Few will be able to turn to it in any big game where he feels the team needs a jolt.
3. Kansas (5)
This section was supposed to be a quick “how the hell is he okay?!” after Marcus Garrett quickly recovered from a brutal fall against Texas over the weekend – I thought he had a brutal concussion. Instead, I’d be remiss if I did not mention last night’s shocking brawl against Sunflower State rival Kansas State (workshopping names for it: “Phight at Phog,” “Violence in Lawrence,” “Late Night at the Phog”).
We have a strict policy at 3MW that states: “We do not litigate,” so I will not propose any specific punishments. I think, though, that I can safely assume that Silvio De Sousa will not be suiting up any time soon, so a quick note on the fallout: I don’t really think this hurts them! David McCormack likely joining De Sousa on the sideline temporarily saps some depth, but we at the Weave have been saying since the summer that this team is better with four guards/wings around Big Doke. And to that end, Christian Braun, who garnered praise in this section a couple weeks back, had a career-high 20 points last night. The Jayhawks are going to be just fine.
4. San Diego State (6)
Of all the incredibly impressive things about the Aztecs this year, the one that is (currently) rising above the rest is their continued defensive dominance without Nathan Mensah in the lineup. Through eight conference games, San Diego State possesses the best defense in the league, and Mensah has only played in two of those (both back in December). The Ghanaian big man was (seemingly) the clear interior fulcrum for a team that was dominant at the rim, but that dominance has maintained even while 6’6, 240-pound Matt Mitchell taking over for the bouncy, lanky Mensah. That shifted Vanderbilt grad transfer Yanni Wetzell over to center, and while he’s nowhere near the intimidator at the rim that Mensah was, he has smartly used his size to challenge scorers with verticality.
Here’s the thing, though: the defense was still better with Mensah on the court, and it likely would be again should he be able to return. But the bar was so high (low?) that even a slight regression is enough to keep the Aztecs in KenPom’s top 10 nationally. They still rebound like crazy, and the guards are disruptive enough on the perimeter to keep foes out of rhythm, so whether or not Mensah is able to come back from a scary blood clot issue should not impact how you view this team.
5. Florida State (9)
In the past, Florida State as a shaky road favorite felt like the perfect situation for a Seminole letdown. Leonard Hamilton’s talented teams would crumble under the weight of an amped opponent (and opposing crowd), undermining the big wins the ‘Noles consistently rack up in Tallahassee. To wit: in the four seasons from 2015-19, Florida State was 5-8 straight up as a road favorite of less than 10 points. Despite being favored, the Seminoles were still losing more often than not in these scenarios, a troubling trend for a team striving to ascend to “elite” status. That looked to be no different this season after FSU dropped its season opener at Pitt as a four point favorite.
But 2020 has changed that! Twice in the past two weeks, Florida State has been able to pull off wins as a narrow road favorite (at Wake Forest and at Miami). Clutch plays from Devin Vassell and Trent Forrest helped the Seminoles survive the Hurricanes over the weekend despite trailing for most of the contest, and that bodes well for the future, as FSU will likely face this challenge at least five more times (at Virginia, at Virginia Tech, at NC State, at Clemson, at Notre Dame). The Seminoles may drop one or two of those, but it’s nice to have some renewed confidence that FSU won’t just shrivel up in such a hostile atmosphere.
6. Louisville (15)
Sometimes I have difficulty coming up with what to write about in each of these sections, but Louisville’s David Johnson made this a pretty easy decision. The freshman guard, who struggled early on the year while returning from shoulder surgery (missed the first four games), took Duke behind the woodshed in the first half, treating vaunted defender Tre Jones like his own personal plaything:
Of course, most of Jones’ defensive reputation comes from his on-ball presence, but Johnson had no issues there, either (yes, this is a second half clip):
Sure, there should have been some help in the paint, but I feel comfortable concluding that “running behind him” is not ideal position for defending your man.
The implications of this offensive explosion are obvious, given that it coincided with the Cardinals beating a top 10 team on the road. The Louisville point guard spot has rightfully been given a lot of attention this year, and at various times, it appeared that Lamarr Kimble and/or Darius Perry might be able to fill it adequately. The problem has been consistency, and while Johnson is unlikely to be a nightly threat as he was at Duke, he does present a higher ceiling for the Cardinals if he can continue to grow more comfortable in this role.
7. Duke (1)
Since these rankings are coming out on Wednesday this week, the Blue Devils are regrettably no longer on a losing streak, having obliterated Miami (FL) on Tuesday night for the second time this year (Duke has beaten the ‘Canes by 32 and 30 points in two meetings). Still, the warning signs are there after a couple of shaky performances at Clemson and against Louisville, the rare two-game swoon that often leads to a Coach K doctor visit.
The Blue Devils scored 0.99 and 0.95 points per possession, respectively, in those two defeats, the first of which was especially alarming because Duke actually shot 40% from three at Clemson. The common wisdom around this Duke team was that it was nigh unstoppable if it was hitting threes, as Vernon Carey could eat opponents alive when they hesitated to send double-teams. But turnovers were an issue in both games (31 combined), and the free throw bug really bit the Blue Devils at Littlejohn Coliseum (10/20, 50%). The roster lacks a “great” free throw shooter, unless you count Joey Baker, and Carey’s sub-60% shooting from the line could rear its ugly head again in future tight games. It’s by no means an “exhaust port in the Death Star” level of flaw, but it is yet another reminder that even Coach K’s kids are nowhere near invincible this season.
8. Dayton (11)
This section has hailed the Flyers for how much fun they are to watch play offense, but honestly, I think it’s time to just stop that sentence at “fun to watch play.” The guys genuinely cheer for each other and seem to get along great; I’m not sure I’ve seen a team celebrate three-pointers while the shooter is still taking the shot more than this Dayton squad. Normally, that might irritate me because I can often be a joyless grump, but it just seems to work for this group (perhaps that’s because I first saw them in Maui, and now I associate them with being on the island – but that’s for me and my therapist to figure out).
Still, it’s more than just the offense. Against VCU, Obi Toppin was sitting out during a mini-surge in the first half, but that did not mean he wasn’t engaged. Toppin was on his feet for this entire possession:
And it culminated in an offensive foul – keep an eye on Toppin’s reaction:
That sideline involvement is yet another reason to enjoy Dayton this year, and the Flyers’ cohesion was on prime display during Friday night’s impressive comeback win in overtime at Saint Louis.
9. Michigan State (13)
First, mandatory acknowledgement that Cassius Winston set the Big Ten career assists record with this gem of an alley-oop to Xavier Tillman:
I’m going to focus on Tillman, though, as he’s emerged into the two-way destroyer many envisioned him to be in the preseason (ourselves included). Over the last seven games, Tillman has taken on a slightly larger offensive role, both scoring and distributing, and he’s become an elite shot-blocker over that span, as well:
Like everyone on the Spartan roster, he struggled at Purdue — that was his only single-digit scoring game in the last seven — but he’s been excellent otherwise, and that rim protection has really amped up the Spartans’ interior defense.
10. Seton Hall (19)
I was skeptical of Seton Hall’s ceiling this offseason, but the Pirates have been nothing but impressive all season long. The only “bad” performance has been the destruction against Rutgers at the RAC, but that’s hardly a blemish knowing what we know now.
I think a part of me loves a guy more who simply forces me to appreciate him through sheer force of will– the more skeptical I was of a guy initially, the more I go head over heels once I’m finally converted (see: Winston, Cassius). Powell does things I thoroughly enjoy on the basketball court: he always makes FTs, he buries iron testicle threes, etc., so it’s really baffling I wasn’t more in on him before. In my defense, I was less skeptical of Powell than I was of whether his team could really ascend to another level (I did pick him highly in awards, but I think I was skeptical he could raise the rest of the team’s ceiling like he has).
11. Villanova (16)
The Wildcats creep into the top 12, and more importantly, they’re only one game back of Seton Hall atop the Big East standings after knocking off Butler on Tuesday night. Villanova’s defense has not been as good as I hoped this year (in one sentence: the switching perimeter players have not been able to compensate for porous interior defense), but the offense has been outstanding, as Jay Wright’s squad now ranks 11th nationally in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency.
A big part of that efficiency is simply getting great shots. Plenty of attention is paid to how many threes the Wildcats shoot – 46.2% of their field goals, in fact – but if they’re open and being taken by good shooters, what’s the harm in that? The website dribblehandoff.com has developed a metric to measure the quality of shots teams get, and the list of teams in multi-bid leagues is largely not surprising:
There’s plenty to unpack there (Dayton offense = good, and how about the WCC!), but the quick Villanova-related takeaway is that the Wildcats could actually have some room to improve offensively if they start making more of the open jumpers they’re getting.
12. Butler (4)
The Bulldogs have lost three times since the last edition of these rankings, but after doubting them repeatedly all year, I’m actually going to give them the benefit of the doubt this time. Two of their losses (vs. Seton Hall, at Villanova) were against teams I now have ranked higher than Butler, while the third (at DePaul) is the bigger reason for the drop to 12th.
But really, it’s mostly a “lesser of the evils” situation, considering Oregon (@ Wazzu), Kentucky (@South Carolina), and Auburn (@Alabama, @Florida) all suffered losses of their own, and the other teams I have right behind them (Arizona, Maryland, Iowa) have been intensely “Jeykll and Hyde” depending on whether they’re playing at home or not. So for now, the Bulldogs remain, but a loss to Marquette on Friday will result in a far steeper drop in next week’s rankings.
Next 10: West Virginia, Oregon, Kentucky, Arizona, Auburn, Iowa, Texas Tech, Houston, Marquette, Rutgers
Mid-Major Five:
Shockingly, no changes here, aside from ETSU tentatively staking its claim as “top SoCon team” following blowout victories over Samford and Western Carolina. No deep dives this week, unfortunately.