-Jim Root
1. Baylor
The Bears’ defense has been phenomenal this year, that’s no secret, and Scott Drew’s switch to almost exclusively man-to-man after playing zone 40-50% of the time in recent years has been the perfect move to weaponize individual defenders like Davion Mitchell and Mark Vital. Drew will never forget his zone roots, though, and he has thrown it at a few Big 12 foes as a curveball to prevent them from getting too comfortable. Here’s the alignment against Kansas State from Monday night:
And it worked to perfection, as the Wildcats tried to force a pass through the crowded middle of the court:
Drew has pressed all of the right buttons this season, and his clever sprinkling in of his old matchup zone is yet another bullet point on his ever-expanding Coach of the Year résumé.
2. Gonzaga
Killian Tillie’s ankle injury (and general propensity to get hurt) could have far-reaching effects for the Zags come March. After being so highly regarded heading into last season, playing behind/alongside Rui Hachimura and Brandon Clarke last year and Filip Petrusev this year may have led to Tillie becoming underrated. He’s blend of size, skill level, and basketball IQ makes him an incredible big man, even if he’s not the guy racking up 20-point nights. Digging into the numbers quickly, and it’s easy to see why he’s crucial to the Bulldogs potentially making a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. Here’s Tillie’s on/off splits in all games:
Now here they are in Gonzaga’s five toughest games, as rated by KenPom’s A/B classifications (excluding San Francisco and Santa Clara, since he managed just nine minutes combined in those):
Tillie passing and floor spacing really amps up the offense, though it’s interesting that the defense was better without him. A large chunk of that is explained by foes shooting just 24.9% from deep when he sits, though. This is just a sprained ankle, and it should not keep him out long; hopefully, the Zags get a healthy Tillie the rest of the way.
3. Kansas
With Udoka Azubuike mysteriously relegated to coming off the bench against Texas, it seemed like as good a time as any to examine the Hoop Lens numbers with him versus David McCormack playing center. Azubuike is clearly the better player, but the splits still shocked me:
Azubuike’s offensive presence is undeniably impactful, but it’s his growth into a steamroller on the defensive end that has fully weaponized the Jayhawk scheme. He’s more mobile, he’s contesting everything at the rim, and his presence has given the KU guards more confidence in extending beyond the arc and challenging every shot.
Also, yeah, very glad they don’t play together anymore. Glad that’s settled!
4. San Diego State
San Diego State looked to be in a tough spot on Saturday night, trailing by eight at halftime against a desperate Utah State team that posseses the talent to go toe-to-toe with the Aztecs. The undefeated season was on the ropes, and Sam Merrill was playing potential All-American Malachi Flynn to a draw in the backcourt.
But folks, Kawhi Leonard was in the building to have his jersey retired, and it’s angles like this that sometimes simply cannot be handicapped. The Aztecs slammed the gas pedal in the second half, outscoring the Aggies 49-29 after the break to still cover the -7 spread with relative ease, a massive upset considering the halftime score. Never underestimate the power of the legendary jersey retirement!!!
Just to add to the mayhem: Murray State was retiring a jersey of its own Saturday (Ja Morant – ever heard of him?), and the Racers were tied with lowly SIUE with 12:30 remaining as 17-point favorites. Lo and behold, Murray State went on a 24-3 run and ended up winning by 19 (aka CoverTown). Two games is plenty big enough a sample size to make this a thing, I say…
5. Louisville
The Cardinals played with fire on Wednesday night, surviving a horrific first half in which they allowed Wake Forest to rack up 46 points while shooting 60% from the field, got outrebounded 17-12 by the Demon Deacons, and turned the ball over nine times. They cleaned things up considerably in the second half, winning that stanza by 22 points, so there’s obviously zero long-term damage done. But it’s still a slight cause for alarm against a clearly inferior team, something the Cardinals had largely done well to avoid recently in wins against NC State, BC, and Clemson.
Of course, every team has poor performances, and the important thing is that Louisville won. I’m sure Chris Mack is more than okay with having some material to work on in practice, as well.
6. Duke
In some absurd way, I think Zion Williamson’s ridiculous hops made us numb to “head at the rim” highlights by Blue Devils. But Cassius Stanley has every bit the same outrageous bounce that Williamson did, albeit in a significantly thinner and less dense frame. For me, it’s not even the dunks that blow my mind (and the dunks are wildly entertaining, to be clear) – it’s the hangtime on other plays that is supernatural:
The second one begs the question – should Stanley be running fly patterns in the fall for David Cutcliffe??
7. Dayton
I’d just like to give a quick ode to Trey Landers, the Flyers’ unsung swingman who has proven nearly as invaluable to Dayton’s success as Obi Toppin or Jalen Crutcher. Landers is the prototypical “glue guy” in terms of his defensive versatility, willingness to do the dirty work, and knack for getting huge buckets down the stretch in big games, and the Hoop Lens on/off numbers
That’s +29 points per 100 possessions with him on the court, compared to just +9 points per 100 without him. Pretty huge impact!
He’s more than just a glue guy, though, as he’s making 70.1% of his two-pointers and 40.4% of his threes, and his emotional impact cannot really be measured, either (even though those Hoop Lens numbers paint a tremendous picture). He does basically everything well that there is to do on a basketball court.
8. Florida State
Surprisingly for a 19-3 ACC team that is a clear top 10 team in human rankings, the Seminoles rank just 19th at KenPom, 21st at BartTorvik, and 19th at Haslametrics. Computers clearly have issue with Leonard Hamilton’s robotic ability to avoid aging and are knocking his team accordingly – and I don’t blame them!
In reality, though, the ‘Noles simply are not quite playing like a truly elite team right now, particularly on the offensive end, where they’ve shown some clear flaws in ACC play:
In a strange turn for such an athletic roster, FSU ranks dead last in the ACC in offensive free throw rate, instead relying heavily on knocking down perimeter shots to score. They have plenty of guys who can do just that, but the Seminoles should be taking advantage of their athleticism more by getting on the offensive glass and attacking the rim. FSU also ranks last in the ACC “non-steal turnover percentage,” which is essentially a measure of carelessness – travels, throwing the ball out of bounds, etc. The Seminole offense needs to be sharper for Florida State to start rising up the analytical rankings.
9. Arizona
At the beginning of the year, my colleague Matt and I had a mini debate about “Chase Jeter vs. Stone Gettings” as basketball players. I was on the Jeter side – he was a productive interior scorer and rebounder, while Gettings looked like a possible “Evan Boudreaux Redux” – aka a prolific Ivy League grad transfer whose production would drop drastically with a major step up in competition. Early on, that seemed right – Gettings was playing 15 minutes per game and not producing points or rebounds at anywhere near the same rates that he did at Cornell, while Jeter’s production surged when Gettings got hurt in late November. A key basketball tenet, though: production isn’t everything.
With Jeter now hurt, Gettings has started Arizona’s last five games, and his impact has skyrocketed as he’s gotten comfortable. On the Washington road trip last week, he averaged 16.0ppg and 7.5rpg, and his outside shooting emerged against the Cougars on Saturday, hitting two triples in that blowout victory. Miller raved about him after the game:
“I also think Stone Gettings has really given us a lot…He is a difference maker on our team…He’s way more comfortable. For him, the more you practice and the more you play, the more experiences that you get, I think the more you play the game you love. You’re out there just playing instead of worrying or feeling like you’re a robot.”
So while I still think Jeter is likely a “better” basketball player, Gettings is unquestionably a better fit for this team, a smart passer and willing role player who can fill in the gaps around the Wildcats’ freshman stars. And against Washington State, he proved capable of far more than that, as well.
10. Auburn
A week ago, Auburn’s résumé was the equivalent of a starving tiger: all skin and bones, with no real meat to speak of. A single Q1 win sat atop the resume (along with the “no bad losses!” declaration in bold size 72 font), and that win – at Mississippi State – barely qualified for the Q1 category. But quite a bit can change in a week in the world of college basketball!
The Tigers feasted over the last seven days, rallying to knock off Kentucky at home and outlasting a short-handed Arkansas team on the road in overtime Tuesday night, significantly beefing up their resume – and it certainly doesn’t hurt that Mississippi State has rocketed up analytical rankings with repeated strong efforts of late. The résumé now more closely matches the record, the formerly-starving tiger has filled out its frame, and Auburn has earned its spot among these Rankings.
11. West Virginia
Until perusing West Virginia’s KenPom page just now, I did not realize how well Bob Huggins scheduled this year. He ripped a page right out of Bill Self’s book at Kansas, loading up on home games against mid-major powers and earning a sterling non-conference SOS (4th in the country) for his efforts. There’s a world in which every one of his non-Power conference foes, save Youngstown State, wins its league:
· Northern Iowa – 9-2 in the MVC, 1st
· Rhode Island – 9-1 in the A-10, 2nd
· Akron – 6-3 in the MAC, T-2nd
· Northern Colorado – 7-3 in the Big Sky, T-2nd
· Austin Peay – 10-0 in the OVC, T-1st
· Boston U – 8-3 in the Patriot, 2nd
· Nicholls – 8-4 in the Southland, T-2nd
· Youngstown State – 6-5 in the Horizon, T-3rd
Unfortunately, WVU got stuck with hosting Missouri in the Big 12/SEC Challenge, which is a worse game than hosting Akron this year and about the same as hosting Northern Colorado. Still, that intelligent twisting of the system should give the Mountaineers an excellent seed; I’d guess a 2 in Saturday’s bracket preview.
12. Maryland
Until further notice, the 12th spot is just going to be reserved for “Big Ten Team That Managed to Not Lose.” The Terrapins earn that spot after beating Iowa on Thursday and Rutgers on Tuesday, and the Terps are now up to 18-4 on the year. They even showed serious road guts at Indiana a week and a half ago, withstanding a massive Hoosier second half to steal one in the final minute. Like Arizona, road wins like that are really all this team is missing to prove its legitimacy – and Friday night in Champaign gives them an enormous chance to show that resiliency once again (or crash and burn in a hostile environment).
The Next 10: Seton Hall, Kentucky, Oregon, Butler, Penn St., Michigan St., Villanova, Illinois, Colorado, Rutgers
Mid-Major Five
1. Yale
Let’s look at this way: last year’s Yale team was unquestionably awesome. The Bulldogs were just the second Yale team since the Cuban Missile Crisis to make NCAA Tournament and finished 77th in KenPom, trailing only the 2016 team that shocked Baylor in the Big Dance. Miye Oni was the first Ivy player drafted into the NBA since 1995, and the Bulldogs also lost two three-year starters (Trey Phills and Blake Reynolds) and a two-year starter at point guard (Alex Copeland) from a squad that very nearly beat LSU in Round One (8/37 from deep still stings).
So you’ll have to forgive my incredulity that this year’s Yale team is better than last year’s squad – and demonstrably so. This year’s team has an Adjusted Efficiency Margin of +13.83, a good deal higher than last year’s +8.79, and the Bulldogs sit right on the edge of the Top 50 of the NET (50th currently). Coach James Jones obviously lost quite a bit of talent – again, the first NBA draftee since “This Is How We Do It” came out – but he’s compensated by building an elite defensive unit that challenges everything and defends the rim with ferocity thanks to the paint duo of 6’9 Jordan Bruner and 6’10 Paul Atkinson. The Bulldogs, off to a 4-0 start to the Ivy season, face a huge test against uber-talented Harvard on Friday, but if the Crimson can’t score, they’ll continue looking up at the Bulldogs atop the Ivy standings.
2. Northern Iowa
A.J. Green has gotten a lot of the attention for Northern Iowa’s torrid offense, both in this space and others, but it’s probably about time to acknowledge how incredible big man Austin Phyfe has been, too. The skilled big man has given the Panthers another clear route to efficient offense rather than just hoping Green can create in a one-on-one setting. Phyfe is scoring 1.1 points per possession on post ups, ranking him in the 97th percentile, and it’s easy to see why given how he uses patience as a weapon and navigates his body in advantageous positions:
That extra half step looks awkward, but it’s precisely that step that makes this move so deadly: the opponent’s timing is thrown off, and he gets caught swiping at the ball as Phyfe lays it in.
3. New Mexico State
After Cal St. Bakersfield put a scare into the Aggies last Thursday (the Roadrunners took the lead in Las Cruces with 3:30 remaining before succumbing), NMSU finally put together a dominant performance without star wing Trevelin Queen. The Aggies whipped “rival” Grand Canyon by 20, dominating the game both inside (37-27 on the glass) and out (17 to 7 in assists). Sophomore Jabari Rice has made an enormous leap this season, and he and Ivan Aurrecoechea (I will never get good at typing that name) have emerged into go-to offensive weapons in Queen’s absence.
4. Louisiana Tech
The Bulldogs are now the de facto C-USA King of the Hill after sweeping Charlotte and Old Dominion this past week, coupled with North Texas (at Rice) and Western Kentucky (at FIU, at FAU) stumbling ahead of them. Louisiana Tech has been in this section before, and with junior wing JaColby Pemberton finally rediscovering his form after struggling with injury for over a month, the stay could be longer than last time around. Of course, the schedule is no joke, with a road trip through WKU and Marshall looming tonight/Saturday.
5. Vermont
Vermont sneaks into the back end of the Mid-Major Five for the first time this year on the strength of eight straight wins in the America East - and plenty of other teams up for consideration here taking losses. The Catamounts may have debuted here earlier were it not for the mysterious lack of impact made by Alabama grad transfer Daniel Giddens, who we thought would secure the paint and give Vermont a dominant defensive presence. Instead, he’s barely done anything at all:
He’s now injured, but I’m not entirely sure that matters. And that’s crazy! This is a former top 100 recruit that contributed in the Big Ten as a freshman, and suddenly he’s an expendable piece on a surging America East squad. College basketball is confusing.