- Ky McKeon
Key Returners: Johnny Juzang, Cody Riley, Tyger Campbell, Jaime Jaquez, Jules Bernard, Jake Kyman, Jaylen Clark, Mac Etienne, David Singleton
Key Losses: Chris Smith, Jalen Hill
Key Newcomers: Peyton Watson, Will McClendon, Myles Johnson (Rutgers)
Lineup:
Outlook: Mick Cronin has officially arrived in Tinseltown. After 13 years at Cincinnati building a program with a reputation for physicality and gritty style of play, many were surprised to see Cronin offered the UCLA gig. Bruins fans were thought to resist a non-flashy basketball product, but those types of concerns tend to dissipate when your team reaches the Final Four. The Bruins’ run in last season’s Tournament was nothing short of miraculous (more on that in a minute) and now expectations are sky high for the squad bringing nearly everyone back for an encore.
At the risk of sounding like a “hater”, I have to point out just how improbable UCLA’s March run was last season and give context on its final #13 KenPom ranking. UCLA ended the regular season on a three-game losing skid and then lost to Oregon State in the first round of the Pac 12 tournament. By the grace of the Committee, the Bruins, who ranked 45th in KenPom, were selected as one of the last four teams for the Big Dance. They defeated Michigan State in overtime in the First Four despite having a 9% winning probability at one point and then had some of the most fortuitous shooting luck ever. Take a look at the FT% and 3P% of UCLA’s Tournament opponents last season; while some credit can be given to defensive schemes (for the outside shooting), much more should be given to the Basketball Gods:
It’s easy to argue UCLA should have lost to Michigan State, Alabama, and Michigan in last season’s Dance, which is partially why we as a collective are “lower” than most on the Bruins heading into this season. The talent is undeniable on this roster, but UCLA was not a top-15 caliber squad last season despite what its run in March suggested. The starting point for 2021-22 is further back than many care to realize.
Ok, enough of that. UCLA is going to be really, really good this season because UCLA has an embarrassing amount of talent. Johnny Juzang opted to return to school this year after going Super Saiyan in the NCAAT and boosting his Draft prospects. Juzang averaged 22.8 PPG in the Dance and looked unstoppable – every single pull-up and fade-away found the bottom of the net, and he was legitimately the best player on the floor for the majority of March.
Juzang will look to prove that Tourney performance wasn’t a flash in the pan, and now he carries lofty expectations as an All-American candidate and team leader. He’ll be counted on to score in bunches and bail the Bruins out when possessions get late in the clock.
Fellow All-Conference returners Tyger Campbell (the only UCLA 1st Team All-Pac 12 choice) and Jaime Jaquez return to give the Bruins a rock-solid three-man attack. Campbell has started every game of his 2-year Bruin career and has evolved into a poised and patient distributor and creator. While still not a good outside shooter, Campbell is an elite point guard who can keep the Bruin offense ticking all game long. Jaquez is the unsung hero of this team, a 39% shooter last year and also a Pac 12 All-Defensive Team selection (how’s that for 3-and-D?). Jaquez does a bit of everything on the floor and simply outworks his competition, hustling for every loose ball and driving with physicality to the rack.
Returning starter Jules Bernard would ordinarily be in line to repeat his role of last season, especially after averaging double figures. But Cronin brought in top ten prospect Peyton Watson, a 6’8” wing who oozes length and athleticism. Watson, a member of the gold medal USA U19 squad this summer, is sure to see plenty of PT this season and develop into something special.
With Watson in the fold, Bernard will join a stable of talented wings off the pine. Jake Kyman and David Singleton are money outside shooters (and Bernard shot 40% from deep), Jaylen Clark is a former 4-star with terrific length and athleticism. Freshman Will McClendon, a top 60 recruit, is a point-wing with excellent court vision. The backcourt / wing rotation is incredibly crowded this season, but Cronin hasn’t been afraid to go deep into his bench in prior years.
With Jaquez, Juzang, and possibly Watson able to get away with playing small-ball 4, UCLA has a luxury at the center spot with two players in Cody Riley and Myles Johnson who could start for any program in the country. Riley really came into his own last season, starting every contest and rebounding well. The former top 50 recruit is a gifted post scorer and uses his wide frame to create room in the paint. As he is the incumbent, Riley likely stays in the starting five, but Rutgers transfer Myles Johnson is arguably the more valuable player. Johnson immediately upgrades UCLA’s defense. He earned a spot on the Big Ten’s All-Defensive Team last season after ranking 2nd in the league (and 19th nationally) in block rate.
Johnson is better on the glass than Riley, leading the Big Ten in DR% and ranking 4th in OR% last year, but he’s a little more limited offensively. Both big men will see ample minutes this season.
UCLA’s depth up front extends another layer deeper with the presence of former top 50 recruit Mac Etienne who joined the Bruins midway through last season. Etienne saw action in 13 games and has potential as a post scorer, shot blocker, and rebounder with his size and length. Kenneth Nwuba, a 6’9” junior forward, rounds out UCLA’s frontcourt rotation.
Defense was the weaker side of the ball last season for UCLA, but with Jaquez back and Johnson in the fold the Bruins should be improved on this end of the floor. They were already the Pac 12’s best defensive rebounding team last season and that should stay consistent in 2021-22. Cronin’s squads do a great job keeping opponents away from the bucket and force them to win in isolation and by shooting outside shots.
Offense should be solid once again. Cronin plays in the halfcourt and eschews transition despite the talent of his roster. Campbell is a terrific floor general, Juzang can score on anyone in isolation, and there will always be at least three capable outside shooters on the floor at a time. UCLA settled for mid-range jumpers too often last year, ranking 5th in the country in percentage of FGA from the mid-range versus 329th at the rim (Hoop-Math), which it could fall in danger of repeating again this season. While the Bruins are talented enough to hit those shots, that type of shot selection can result in cold nights and a stagnant attack.
Bottom Line: Despite my negative caveat at the beginning UCLA should absolutely be considered a top ten team this season. The Bruins have tons of talent and experience plus a coach with a winning track record. There’s not much not to like about the Blue Blood Bruins.