-Matt Cox
Key Returners: Hunter Cattoor, Nahiem Alleyne, Justyn Mutts, Keve Aluma
Key Losses: Tyrece Radford**, Jalen Cone, Cartier Diarra, Cordell Pemsl
Key Newcomers: Storm Murphy (Virginia Tech)
Lineup:
** As of July 30th, Tyrece Radford is officially listed on the Virginia Tech roster. Though he entered the portal, rumors are he very well may return to Blacksburg. The preview below is written assuming he leaves.
Outlook: A few months removed from a gut-wrenching early round NCAA Tournament exit against Florida, the Hokies are ready for a reset. It took Mike Young only two seasons to punch his ticket to the big dance, outpacing his predecessor Buzz Williams by a year. Remember those initial ‘can Mike Young compete at a high-major level’ murmurs back in 2018? Yeah, those faint cries are all but extinct by now.
Young was put through the ringer last season, a victim of multiple serious COVID stoppages. The adversity didn’t end there, though. VT endured multiple soul crushing break ups early this offseason, notably Cartier Diarra (some believed he’d return for a bonus year) and Tyrece Radford (he transferred late in the recruiting cycle – more on him later), on top of Wabissa Bede’s expected graduation.
Not to worry, Hokies. A ‘Storm’ is on the move, heading north bound up from the Carolinas originating back in Young’s old stomping grounds. 2022 will mark the reunion of Young and his former floor general, Storm Murphy, whose steady hands guided Wofford to one of the best seasons in mid-major history back in 2019. Everyone remembers the Fletcher Magee circus shots and Cam Jackson spin cycles – Murphy was the unheralded table setter for all of that magic, which was abruptly cut short when Kentucky snuck by the Terriers in the 2nd Round.
Since then, Storm’s grown up. He’s no longer the passive, opportunistic point guard that steered Young’s ship in 2019. Last year, he led the Terriers to a 2nd place SoCon finish despite a watered-down supporting cast, comprised of mostly underclassmen. This experience will prove invaluable as he transitions to the point guard saddle in Blacksburg, given Young will dub him a locker room leader from Day 1. He’ll find a refreshing upgrade in offensive weaponry flanking him on the perimeter in Nahiem Alleyne and Hunter Cattoor, but Radford, last year’s golden gun in the backcourt, is no longer.
Losing Radford should not be shrugged off lightly. The bulldozing power wing was a menace on the glass, by far the Hokies’ best two-way rebounder at the *guard* position. His sudden exodus stings even more in the light of how well he played in VT’s final four games last year, proof that his January 12th clinic against Duke was not a farce. Some might go as far as to say Radford was the Hokies’ most valuable piece over the last two months of the season.
Despite being a non-shooter, Radford’s effectiveness was unlocked by the Hokies’ terrific twofer up front, Keve Aluma and Justyn Mutts. As plus passers and sneaky good shooters, Aluma and Mutts are able to stretch the floor in Young’s inverted motion offense, keeping the lane free of congestion. This is where Radford feasted, capitalizing on the open real estate in the middle by attacking smaller, weaker guards in the belly of the defense.
Devoid of that smash mouth element in and around the paint, expect Young to make a few tweaks to last year’s offensive design. The obvious play is to double down on long range marksmanship, akin to the trigger happy, 3-point bonanza we saw in 2020. For starters, the Murphy / Cattoor / Alleyne trio might have a claim to one of the best shooting backcourts in America, all of whom are safe bets to shoot 40% or better from bonus land.
Don’t let this be a cause for concern. Yes, we witnessed the inconsistency associated with that 2020 team living and dying by the long ball, but this year is different. Aluma and Mutts are the distinguishing factors. They provide supplementary avenues to manufacture points, be it on the offensive glass or by getting to the free throw line.
The 3-point shot will always be front and center of any Mike Young offense but the Aluma / Mutts tandem enables the Hokies to strike a proper inside-out balance offensively. Whether it’s an open look from 3-point range or an open look in the restricted area, the analytics don’t discriminate – both are highly efficient shots given the right personnel. Just look at how effective the Hokies were at generating this blend of shots for themselves last year, while eliminating those same looks for their opponents on the other end (data courtesy of ShotQuality.com):
The key underlying metric in Shot Quality’s rankings are ‘Rim & 3’ rate. This is simply the percentage of all shot attempts that are 3s or at the rim. Few coaches appreciate the value of shot selection more than Young. Even though the Hokies may need to chuck a few more triples this year, he knows catch-and-shoot looks within the flow of the offense are still highly efficient. The difference between 2020 and this season is that Mutts and Aluma can instill that critical balance to the force.
Bottom Line: The only concern – and it could loom large – is depth. Oddly enough, Young’s roster is overweighted toward bigs, behind returning reserves John Ojiako and David N'Guessan, along with wildcard Clemson transfer Lynn Kidd (former top-150 recruit). Former Oak Hill product Darius Maddox and 3-star rookie Sean Pedulla will need to eat up big minutes off the pine behind the Murphy / Cattoor / Alleyne triumvirate and are one serious injury away from being thrown right to lion’s den.
Still, Young’s got a top-5 that rivals anyone in the conference with Murphy stepping into the point guard stead. My back-of-the-napkin math has the Hokies as a short favorite to clinch a second straight at-large NCAA tournament berth, but a major injury or two could ruin that prognosis.