-Matt Cox
1. Gonzaga vs. 16. Georgia State
Key Background/Matchup Notes
- Gonzaga slotted against a DANGEROUS 16-seed (dangerous to most, that is – not to this Zags team)
- Georgia State flipped its season from a severe disappointment into a divine resurrection at the end of January
- COVID interruptions and critical injuries crippled the Panthers in the non-con, manifesting in non-competitive losses to Rhode Island, Richmond and Mississippi State
- Gonzaga’s revenge win over Saint Mary’s was a timely reset – the nation’s fastest offense proved it could do damage outside of the fast lane
Gonzaga Has the Ball
- Timme and Chet can’t sleepwalk through this one. GSU turned its season around on the back of its interior enforcers, Jalen Thomas, and Eliel Nsoseme
- Thomas and Nsoseme also act as safety nets to the extended pressure deployed by Lanier. This isn’t the same Ron Hunter type havoc but it’s cut from a similar cloth
- Per hoop-math.com, opponents shot 50.9% at the rim against GSU this year, the 10th lowest clip in the country
- However, inviting Gonzaga to attack via pressure is a slippery slope – no one is as lethal as the Zags are in transition
Georgia St. Has the Ball
- The guards must go gangbusters. Rob Lanier bemoaned the shot selection this season but that could be a blessing in disguise against Goliath
- Per Shot Quality, two of GSU’s most frequent play types are Corey Allen and Justin Roberts ‘guarded’ 3-pointers
- Kane Williams is the third prong in the backcourt but he’s more of a downhill driver – scoring at the rim against Chet is not advised
- Expect a steady dose of pick-n-roll – GSU’s offense is heavy PnR is a reflection of how all opponents try to attack Gonzaga (bring Chet away from the rim and attack Timme in ball screens)
- Per Synergy, only five teams in America see pick-n-roll more frequently than the Zags
Final Thoughts
- The line is monstrous, but for good reason – the Zags’ frenetic pace adds a ~10% premium to all betting lines
- Still, this number’s too high – I side with my colleagues endorsing the Panthers on a pure value perspective
Picks: Georgia State+23.5, OVER 150
-Matt Cox
8. Boise St. vs. 9. Memphis
Key Background/Matchup Notes
- Memphis is perceived as young but they’re really not THAT young – upperclassmen DeAndre Williams, Landers Nolley, Tyler Harris and Alex Lomax are all key cogs of the post Emoni Bates era rotation
- Boise’s a bunch old, grizzled vets
- save freshman phenom Tyson Degenhart, Boise is a senior laden team with that ‘old man strength’ dynamic
- Abu Kigab and Emmanuel Akot are physical specimens, and steady combo guard Marcus Shaver is a sturdy 6’2 190 pound
- Boise may be battle tested coming out of the Mountain West but Memphis is absolutely scorching right now
Memphis Has the Ball
- Williams and Nolley are deadly swiss army knifes – Penny can use them in screen and roll or play through them in the middle of the floor, where their passing and slashing can shine
- Tyler Harris and Alex Lomax are promptly silencing naysayers. They’re pests defensively and timely shot makers offensively – their size, however, may be a challenge against Boise’s length
- Ball security is paramount – it’s improved recently but it’s never a guarantee with this team. Boise’s too stout defensively to give away precious possessions
Boise Has the Ball
- Nothing fancy or schematically nuanced here. It’s a balanced attack that aims to find individual 1-v-1 mismatches – with their insane positional size and versatility, they often find one
- Degenhart is a revelation for this shooting deprived team. He fills a cavernous void, without sacrificing that long / gritty identity
- Boise started out 3-3, then inserted Degenhart into the starting lineup – they’ve lost four games total since
Final Thoughts
- This game will be a grind. It may come down to late game execution and free throw shooting, which favors neither team unfortunately
- Ugly, slow, eye-bleeder – I like Memphis and the UNDER
Picks: Memphis -2.5, UNDER 133.5
-Matt Cox
5. UConn vs. 12. New Mexico St.
Key Background/Matchup Notes
- After the COVID crisis last year, it’s back to business as usual for Chris Jans
- It reminds me of the annual preseason amnesia we see with Vermont in the America East – it’s just foolish to pick another horse to come out the WAC
- Teddy Allen, aka Teddy Buckets, is a star. He’s another bucket getting bonanza away from NCAA Tournament stardom (consider him your Jordan “Jelly” Walker contingency plan for darling Cinderella scorer)
- However, Tyrese Martin is lab-created to guard him. Martin embodies the UConn toughness gene, a direct extension of Danny Hurley.
UConn Has the Ball
- Adama Sanogo is a destroyer of worlds up front. He leads the offensive glass invasion on every possession, flanked by Isiah Whaley
- Only TCU grabbed a higher percent of their missed shots this season
- Hurley doesn’t play through the post THAT much, though. He prefers to let the bigs find their opportunities on the glass, as opposed to running set action for them on the block
- Historically, Jans coached teams are elite on the boards but he’s harped on their rebounding this season
- Jans has high standards in this domain – the Aggies still checked in with a respectable 102nd best defensive rebounding rate in the country
- Will McNair and Johnny McCants anchor the frontline – McNair is a roundhouse at 6’10 280-pounds while McCants is a jack-of-all-trades forward - he’s already played in two NCAA Tournaments under Jans
New Mexico St. Has the Ball
- Shot selection is always a question mark with a Teddy Allen led offense… but, like many great scorers, he’s an excellent tough shot maker
- Per Synergy, NMSU ranked 50th nationally in field goal percentage on mid-range jumpers – against UConn’s length, the Aggies may need to find a rhythm here
- Point guard play has been under construction all season, largely due to injuries – turnovers ruined what could’ve been a near flawless WAC campaign. Anecdotally, I still trust Jabari Rice as a quasi floor general alongside Allen
- UConn is elite at converting steals in to points on the other end – Jans specifically singled out Andre Jackson as an exemplar in this department
Final Thoughts
- Jans tipped his hand on the aforementioned matchup concerns when he said, “we don’t play these types of teams often” in a Zoom media call earlier this week
- I’m tempted to simply back the coach I trust more (Jans) but I’m swinging the other way at the current price (NMSU money brought this down below 7)
Picks: UConn -6.5, OVER 131.5
- Ky McKeon
4. Arkansas vs. 13. Vermont
Key Background/Matchup Notes
- Arkansas went on a 14-1 tear but now have lost 2 of last 3
- Hogs lost to Hofstra in the non-con but now appear to be living up to lofty preseason expectations
- Athleticism abounds for Arkansas and they have an All-American point guard in JD Notae
- Vermont is ranked its highest in KenPom since Tom Brennan’s 2005 team, the team that beat Syracuse in the First Round
- Vermont ran through the America East, going 17-1… Only two games were decided by less than 10 points… Vermont won its AEC Tourney games by an average of 36.7 PPG
Vermont Has the Ball
- Vermont is one of the best offensive teams in the country
- They rank 3rd nationally in eFG%, 3rd in 2PFG%, and 38th in 3P%
- Half-court style of play – rarely look to force the issue in the open floor, which is key to beating Arkansas
- Balanced diet on offense – they have a post-up threat in Ryan Davis (2x AEC POY); they are elite shooters and space the floor (all five guys can shoot); they use cuts to their advantage – if you overplay the perimeter, you will get burned; they have guards like Ben Shungu who can penetrate, create, and work off ball screens.
- Arkansas is not a great perimeter defensive team – you can find open shots against them. Hogs grade out as average guarding spot-ups, rank 131st in 3P% allowed, and 233rd in 3PA rate allowed
- Arkansas has mobile bigs like Au’Diese Toney and Jaylin Williams who can step out and guard Davis and other forwards on the perimeter
- Arkansas was the SEC’s best defense this season – they will give Vermont a serious challenge. The Catamounts haven’t played a top 200 team since December 7th
- Vermont does not turn the ball over. They are a poised team led by experienced seniors. That’s important against a defense like Arkansas that can bother most opponents with length and pressure.
Arkansas Has the Ball
- JD Notae can score on anyone in the country. He is a matchup problem for anybody, including Vermont.
- Arkansas wants to run – they play at the 28th fastest tempo in the country – they run a ton off opponent scores, try to catch foes napping / celebrating. Vermont needs to get back on defense
- Vermont largely eschews the offensive glass, and with a 5-out attack are more likely to be in good transition position.
- Vermont wants to control tempo this game – they have largely been able to do that this season, but this is most transition-oriented team they’ve faced
- Pick-n-roll heavy offense, drive the lane, use talent, speed and athleticism to score
- Vermont is solid guarding the PnR but they’ve never faced anyone that can execute like Arkansas
- Pigs draw a ton of fouls – Vermont is among best in country at not fouling – can they keep that up?
- Arkansas is not overly reliant on offensive rebounding, but they may not get many second chances. Vermont is the best defensive rebounding team in the country by rate.
Final Thoughts
- I worry about Vermont stacking up with Arkansas’s athletes
- We have two examples of Vermont against power teams this year:
1) Maryland: Lost by 9, were up 7 in 2H… they held Terps to 1.05 PPP but could not score inside the arc
2) Providence: Lost by 10, never had the lead… No Jared Bynum for Providence… Held the Friars to 1.06 PPP but were ice cold from deep… Also had 16 turnovers, not characteristic
- Concerned about the Catamounts not playing a top 200 team since December – this is a major step up in competition – shots won’t be as wide open as they were in 21 games against AEC foes
- On the flip side, Arkansas cannot take Vermont lightly. The Catamounts are dangerous because they can limit game possessions and shoot the crap out of the ball. Arkansas trailed in every single game leading up the Elite Eight last season – not sure they can get away with that again
- Efficiency should be high enough to warrant OVER play, better still if Arkansas can control the tempo (better teams usually can)
- This line is pretty short, but it’s always fun backing a kickass mid-major in March. GO MOUNTS.
Picks: Vermont +5, OVER 139
-Jim Root
6. Alabama vs. 11. Rutgers/Notre Dame
Key Background/Matchup Notes
- I am writing this prior to Wednesday night — so I do not know who won the play-in game (will update picks once the matchup is settled)
- Alabama played (maybe by far?) the toughest schedule in the entire country. The worst team the Tide played was Georgia, a league foe. Their worst non-conference opponent was 20-12 Oakland.
Alabama Has the Ball
- The Crimson Tide have introduced more ball screen action into their offense this year, particularly with JD Davison and Jahvon Quinerly
- Rutgers should be a terrific ball screen defense, particularly with menace Caleb McConnell swarming the ball. The Synergy numbers do not grade out well, though.
- Notre Dame also struggles in PnR coverage. As a result, Mike Brey will throw out some zones to try and disrupt the offense. Alabama has shredded zones this season (85th percentile nationally)
- Alabama never takes mid-range jumpers. The offense is all shots at the rim or from beyond the arc. Unfortunately, they lack quality 3P shooters (305th nationally in 3P%)
- Notre Dame’s rim defense is porous, so they would try to keep the Tide on the perimeter altogether and hope they’re cold
- Rutgers has a better interior defense with Cliff Omoruyi, but Alabama might be able to penetrate the Knights’ more aggressive defensive shell
- Because of how they pack the paint, the Fighting Irish can better combat Alabama’s impressive offensive rebounding
Rutgers/Notre Dame Has the Ball
- Without knowing the matchup, it’s hard to go into too much detail
- Notre Dame’s offense is primarily based around ball screen actions and post ups, largely intended to create open jump shots
- Alabama tries to take away the three, but it often is at the extent of the interior defense
- Rutgers is more dysfunctional on this end. The Scarlet Knights need Paul Mulcahy to create for others and Geo Baker and Ron Harper Jr. to knock down tough shots
- Alabama’s biggest weakness defensively is in the paint, particularly when Charles Bediako sits. Per Hoop-Explorer, foes shoot 55.9% at the rim when he plays. When he sits, that vaults up to 62.4%.
Final Thoughts
- I have a hard time trust this Alabama team. The roster does not fit the style, the rotation changes wildly from game to game, most of the players are decidedly better on one end of the floor or the other.
- To my eye, Rutgers has a better chance of competing – they have pulled off some huge wins and can try to pully Alabama
- Notre Dame’s offense could be delightfully efficient against the Tide’s defense – akin to Alabama’s loss to Davidson on a semi-neutral floor (in Birmingham)
- There’s always the fear that Alabama randomly gets hot, especially against Notre Dame’s compact defense. I will likely take Rutgers if they make it. Leaning Irish as well, but that one is dicier.
Picks: TBD
3. Texas Tech vs. 14. Montana State
Key Background/Matchup Notes
- Mark Adams did an exemplary job in his first year with Texas Tech, taking the Red Raiders to a 3-seed and sterling #9 ranking at KenPom.
- On the other side, Danny Sprinkle took Montana State – his alma mater – to its first NCAA Tournament since 1996 (he was a freshman on the team). He looks like a rising star in the coaching world.
Texas Tech Has the Ball
- Texas Tech’s offense lacks a go-to bucket-getter; rather, many different players can shoulder the scoring burden on any one night. In fact, per Evan Miyakawa’s analysis, this is one of the most balanced teams in the tournament.
- That can be a catch-22 considering the offense has a tendency to experience long droughts.
- Montana State was an elite defensive squad in the Big Sky, leading the league in both 2P% defense and block rate.
- Texas Tech lacks shooters – low attempt rate, low 3P%. The Red Raiders could struggle to manufacture points.
- Texas Tech often compensates for its lack of offensive potency by crushing the glass. Montana State profiles as a team that can withstand a heavy barrage (37th nationally in defensive rebound rate), but this is a large step up in competition.
Montana State Has the Ball
- We must start this discussion with Texas Tech’s interior defense, a truly elite unit. Per Hoop-Math, the Red Raiders rank 4th nationally in rim rate and 19th in FG% allowed at the rim. You cannot get easy buckets against this squad.
- Montana State’s offense is frequently run through Big Sky Player of the Year Jubrile Belo, a bruiser on the block who shot 58.4% inside the arc
- Fortunately for the Bobcats, they can also score at the line (Texas Tech can be foul-prone, Bobcats elite at getting to the rim) or from beyond the arc (38th nationally in 3P%, multiple shooters). Belo lives at the line and shoots 71.3%
- Tyler Patterson, RaeQuan Battle, Nick Gzelas, Xavier Bishop Abdul Mohamed, and Amin Adamu can all get hot from outside.
- Texas Tech may have gotten used to Big 12 officiating (every team is physical). It will be interesting to see if new refs are more stringent on the constant contact
Final Thoughts
- This game could be a war in the paint – both interior defenses have the fortitude to make life difficult for their adversaries.
- Montana State is actually the better shooting team here. That could allow them to hang around even if Belo struggles to get going inside.
- The Red Raiders could wear down Montana State over time with their depth, but in a low total game, this still feels like a mountain to climb.
Picks: Montana St. +15, Under 132.5
- Ky McKeon
7. Michigan State vs. 10. Davidson
Key Background/Matchup Notes
- Michigan State started the year 14-2 (5-0)… they finished 8-10 (6-9)
- Davidson won its 2nd A-10 regular season title. Bob McKillop has now taken his Wildcats to 10 NCAA tournaments
- Davidson’s marquee win was against Alabama in a semi-away game in Birmingham
- Michigan State guard Tyson Walker is iffy for this game. He is one of two primary ball handlers for the Spartans.
- Davidson point guard Foster Loyer transferred from Michigan State this offseason. He was an afterthought at Sparty – now he’s a 2nd Team All-A10 player.
- Tom Izzo has lost six times in the First Round / First Four. McKillop has lost eight times (seven of those teams were seeded 12 or below).
Davidson Has the Ball
- 11th best offense in the country – McKillop is a master of the motion offense
- Top 15 in both eFG% and TO rate – they take and make good shots and do not turn the ball over
- Davidson plays almost exclusively in the halfcourt. Only two games this season have played over 70 possessions.
- Everyone on the floor is a threat to shoot the 3-ball. Davidson has four guys who shoot over 40% from deep.
- Davidson has two matchup issues:
- Luka Brajkovic, the A-10 Player of the Year, is big enough at 6’10” 250-pounds to score on the block. But, he’s also one of the Cats’ best shooters and passers.
- Hyunjung Lee is a 6’7” sniper on the wing.
- Davidson plays through Brajkovic in the post. He’s an excellent passer out of the block. Davidson also runs shooters off a myriad of screens, looking for open catch-and-shoot opportunities.
- Marcus Bingham is one of the better shot-blockers in the country, but he can still be beaten on the block. Brajkovic and/or Sam Mennenga can also pull him away from the hoop. Everyone else on MSU grades out as a below-average post defender per Synergy.
- Michigan State can get lost defensively through screens. Expect plenty of open looks for Davidson. MSU is not overly athletic, which is something Davidson can struggle with.
Michigan State Has the Ball
- Tyson Walker’s status is huge. While he hasn’t been as effective as his days at Northeastern, Walker is still MSU’s primary ball handler and one of the better assist / 3-point threats in the country. He played just three minutes against Purdue and is listed as a GTD.
- Without Walker, MSU has to turn to AJ Hoggard. Hoggard has been better this season, but he can still be erratic with the ball at times and is a total non-shooter. Walker shoots over 49% from deep. Hoggard shoots 23%.
- Michigan State’s offense is blah. There, I said it. It relies on Hoggard and Walker to create, and neither is superb at it. Gabe Brown, despite his ability to jump, cannot create his own offense off the bounce. Joey Hauser is also catch-and-shoot. Per Hoop-Math, 100% of Hauser’s made 3s this season have been assisted and 95.5% of Brown’s have been assisted, and 97.4% of Max Christie’s have been assisted.
- Davidson is not a good defensive team. The Cats aren’t super long, nor are they super athletic. They box-out and limit opponents to one shot per possession, but that’s it.
- Sparty should have plenty of open looks from deep. MSU is the 18th best 3P-shooting team in the country.
- Davidson cannot take advantage of MSU’s turnover issues, nor will they really exploit the absence of Walker on this end.
Final Thoughts
- This game has “efficiency” written all over it. Both teams can shoot and neither team offers much resistance on the defensive end. Therefore, an OVER lean seems appropriate.
- Pace-wise we’re looking at about a 60-65 possession game. Michigan State is awful in transition (per Synergy) and won’t really look to push the issue – especially if Walker is a no-go. Davidson wants a half-court game.
- I think Walker’s absence means more than most. Without him MSU is stuck with Hoggard running point for 40 minutes or using Jaden Akins or whatever wing wants to help out. That’s not a winning formula.
- Both teams are well-coached. I’ll go with the better offensive team versus the team who might be without its point guard.
Picks: Davidson +1, OVER 140.5
- Ky McKeon
2. Duke vs. 15. Cal State Fullerton
Key Background/Matchup Notes
- This is going to be a beat down. Cal State Fullerton has no chance.
- Fullerton should be a 16-seed, but the Committee opted not to look closer at Georgia State’s resume
- CSUF head coach Dedrique Taylor led his Titans to a 15-seed back in 2016. They lost to Purdue 74-48. That feels about right.
- Duke has lost at least three times as a 2-seed prior to the Sweet Sixteen. In 2012, a CJ McCollum led Lehigh squad took down the Blue Devils in the First Round.
- If you haven’t heard, this is Coach K’s final NCAA Tournament
Cal State Fullerton Has the Ball
- Lots of rim attack, lots of post-ups. Healthy diet of pick-n-roll.
- Duke is one of the best ball screen defensive teams in the country – allow 0.65 PPP (88th percentile)
- Duke grades out in the 83rd percentile against post-ups (0.751 PPP)
- EJ Anosike can crush Big West foes… but his 6’7” frame is no match for the Theo Johns and Mark Williamses of the world. Case in point, Anosike could barely get on the floor for Tennessee last season.
- Duke doesn’t foul – and yeah that has a lot to do with Cameron Indoor-friendly refs and Coach K’s reputation, but the Devils are also just a crazy talented, athletic team that doesn’t need to foul to play good defense.
- Anosike’s O-ratings against Tier A competition last 5 seasons:
- 95.8
- 86.6
- 94.5
- 92.7
- 62.2
- CSUF cannot shoot, so that avenue to scoring is firmly blocked. The Titans rank 338th in the country in 3PA rate and 183rd in 3P%.
Duke Has the Ball
- The individual talent on Duke is overwhelming. Like the alien Marvel superhero Gladiator, Duke’s performance simply stems from how confident it is on a given night.
- Who on Fullerton stops Paolo Banchero? Who stops Trevor Keels? Who stops AJ Griffin? Who stops Wendell Moore?
- If Duke wants to run, they’ll run. If they want to get a rebound, they’ll get a rebound. If they want to score in the post, they’ll score in the post. And on, and on, and on.
- It is a true men v. boys matchup.
Final Thoughts
- Duke is going to smash Fullerton – they can name their number.
- Coach K and crew should cover the point spread and hold the Titans to below 60ish points. Lean to the UNDER simply because I have no clue how CSUF scores.