-Jim Root
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Kendric Davis, Sr., SMU
Coach of the Year: Kelvin Sampson, Houston
Co-Newcomer of the Year: Emoni Bates, Fr., Memphis; Jalen Duren, Fr., Memphis
Co-Freshman of the Year: Emoni Bates, Memphis; Jalen Duren, Memphis
Tier 1
1. Houston
See full preview here: #16 in our Top 40 countdown
2. Memphis
See full preview here: #19 in our Top 40 countdown (came out pre-Bates commitment)
Note: With Bates in the fold, I would probably rank Memphis ahead of Houston on a national basis, but I will stick with Houston as the AAC regular season champion. It’s somewhat akin to Duke vs. Virginia in the ACC over the years - Memphis has more talent and shiny new toys, but Houston is ultra consistent based on the system and coaching in place. Thus, Memphis probably possesses the higher ceiling, but in a 20-game war of attrition, I trust Houston’s methodical dominance slightly more.
Tier 2
3. Wichita St.
Key Returners: Tyson Etienne, Dexter Dennis, Morris Udeze, Ricky Council IV, Craig Porter, Clarence Jackson
Key Losses: Trey Wade (transfer), Alterique Gilbert (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Joe Pleasant (Abilene Christian), Qua Grant (Division II), Jalen Ricks, Kenny Pohto
Lineup:
Outlook: After 2020 brought one of the most tumultuous offseasons that a program could possibly have, Wichita State fans and beat writers alike have to be enjoying the relative quiet of 2021. No internal investigations (yet), minimal transfers, and the simple fact that we can be confident a season is actually going to happen all are welcome changes compared to last year, and Isaac Brown is largely to thank for that.
After taking over for Gregg Marshall during the preseason, Brown rallied the locker room to a successful campaign (regular season championship, NCAA at-large bid) and earned the love of his players in the process:
Considering the expectations he inherited and the pall of uncertainty over the program back in November 2020, Brown earned every bit of his new contract – and the AAC Coach of the Year award. Turning an eye towards this year, Brown certainly has some challenges ahead to recreate last year’s success, but he also has a talented core of players that were the foundation of a winning culture.
First, the negative. The Shockers’ AAC title was certainly aided by scheduling oddities, only having played 13 conference games compared to Houston’s 17 (and avoiding 4th-place SMU entirely). They also ranked 23rd nationally in KenPom’s “luck” statistic, evidencing their ability to pull out close games late despite somewhat middling efficiency numbers. That “luck” may have caught up with them in March, though, as Wichita State lost in the AAC and NCAA Tournaments by one point each.
Luck may have aided their late game successes, but the Shockers also had multiple bucket-getters off the bounce, and the most important of those – Tyson Etienne – is back in Wichita for another year after flirting with the NBA Draft. Etienne blossomed as a multi-level bucket-getter in Brown’s motion offense, capitalizing on his silky perimeter shooting stroke (39.2% from deep) and physical frame en route to a co-AAC Player of the Year award.
Etienne was effective in basically every kind of action last year, showing improved passing on drives and drawing a bevy of contact en route to 111 free throw attempts in just 22 games:
His evolution as an isolation scorer is especially notable after he was essentially not used that way at all as a freshman (five points on eight possessions). He gives Wichita State a “get out of jail free” card when possessions get stagnant via drives and dead-eye deep shooting. Here’s him putting one in the eyehole of co-AAC Player of the Year Quentin Grimes:
It was not a perfect season, though, which explains why he is not on an NBA roster right now. He only shot 34.2% from inside the arc, a legitimately terrible number that underscores his struggles to finish over size at the rim and his ice-cold mid-range shooting: 17-for-65 (26.2%), per Hoop-Math. If he adds more of an intermediate arsenal to his overall repertoire, he will not be sharing the POY award this time around.
With such limited time in charge of the team and considering his history as a Marshall assistant for six years, Brown maintaining a similar offensive system to his predecessor made a ton of sense. Not every player has Etienne’s offensive versatility, so the Shockers’ motion aims to get the entire roster in optimal spots, whether that be shooters, slashers, or interior scorers. For instance, only Morris Udeze was a post player, and his 89 post up possessions dwarfed Isiah Poor Bear-Chandler’s nine – Udeze actually has an array of moves, smartly using his broad frame quick feet to carve out space in the paint.
Similarly, Brown largely uses Dexter Dennis as a spot up threat from beyond the arc, a smart decision considering the athletic wing was somehow even worse from the mid-range (3-for-26, 11.5%) than Etienne. Creation will instead fall to Etienne, point guard Craig Porter, and human microwave Ricky Council. Porter is not particularly dynamic (more of a “game manager” type), but he can make plays in space and has decent vision. Council oozes potential, a rising sophomore with great size at 6’6 who actually led the team in usage off the bench. Like every other Shocker, he has mid-range issues, and it’s no surprise that Wichita State ranked 342nd from that range. But when he lets the offense work for him and gets to the rim, he’s so tough to stop:
There’s definitely a world where Council blossoms into the Shockers’ second-best player and an All-AAC candidate.
Brown also added Division II transfer Qua Grant this offseason, and he could challenge Porter for the starting point guard job given his immense offensive abilities and pedigree (First Team D-II All-American). If nothing else, he’ll join Council in making the Shockers second unit a legitimate strength.
Fellow newcomer Joe Pleasant will have a starting battle of his own with sophomore Clarence Jackson, two hungry glass eaters with floor spacing potential. Pleasant likely has the edge given his experience at Abilene Christian, but Jackson is the team’s best defensive rebounder, an area that needs serious attention.
Like Marshall before him, Brown played primarily man-to-man, but the execution of that scheme fell off to some degree. The Shockers still forced a useful shot distribution (more shots allowed in mid-range than at the rim), but a total inability to finish possessions became their Achilles heel, surrendering 11 offensive rebounds in both the AAC Tournament loss to Cincinnati and the NCAAT defeat against Drake. That would never have flown under Marshall:
The Shocker guards were non-entities on the glass, leaving Udeze, Jackson, and the other bigs on an island inside, and it was not offset by any significant gain in transition opportunities. Pleasant will be a rebounding upgrade over Trey Wade at power forward, and more minutes for Council might provide a boost, but Etienne, Dennis, Porter, Grant, and freshman Jalen Ricks will need to add more focus to this area or it will once again be a fatal flaw.
Bottom Line: With a star in Etienne, a 1v1 interior threat in Udeze, and multiple shooters dotting the perimeter, the Wichita State offense should be a powerful unit. The defense seemed to lack some of the relentless tenacity that Marshall was always able to extract, but hey, if that means players aren’t getting punched, that’s probably for the best! Still, this Shocker squad needs to make strides on that end – particularly on the glass – to find itself back in the NCAA Tournament. Brown did an outstanding job in a difficult spot last year, but this will be a larger opportunity to imprint his own identity on the Wichita State basketball program. Where that leads remains to be seen, though the video in the above tweet definitely portends positive things.
4. Cincinnati
Key Returners: Jeremiah Davenport, Mika Adams-Woods, David DeJulius, Mike Saunders
Key Losses: Keith Williams, Tari Eason (transfer), Zach Harvey (transfer), Chris Vogt (transfer)
Key Newcomers: John Newman (Clemson), Abdul Ado (Mississippi St.), Ody Oguama (Wake Forest), A.J. McGinnis (UNCG), Hayden Koval (UNCG), Jarrett Hensley (UNCG)
Lineup:
Outlook: Deep breaths, UC fans – we know last year was frustrating on the court (first missed NCAA Tournament since 2010), but take solace in knowing that the administration has moved to correct the even larger issues: an awful dynamic between coach and players, ultimately firing John Brannen for, as AD John Cunningham put it, having “jeopardized and/or disregarded the well-being, health and safety of student-athletes.” The atmosphere at Cincinnati sounded downright toxic and totalitarian (supported by the flock of players who quickly entered the transfer portal after the season ended), and suffice it to say, Brannen’s two-year tenure will not take up much room in the UC history books.
And, exhale.
Wes Miller arrives with the exact opposite kind of reputation, a young and energetic leader for whom guys want to play – again, evidenced by three UNC Greensboro players following him to his new gig. Miller was a popular choice for the North Carolina job this offseason after compiling a staggering 125-43 (70-20) record in Greensboro over the last five seasons, so it looks like a coup for the Bearcats to scoop him relatively late in the hiring process.
Of course, now the work begins. Miller had to re-recruit multiple Bearcats, bringing Mason Madsen and Mike Saunders back from the portal, and six other transfers will help solidify a roster that got off to an abysmal 3-7 (1-4) start to the year in 2020-21. Creating a more positive culture is a crucial first step, but shifting the Bearcats’ approach on the court will be just as important.
Miller is best known as a defensive mastermind, the architect of four straight top 75 defenses (per KenPom AdjDE) despite coaching at a SoCon program. He will frequently press full court, but mostly using a soft 1-2-2 zone or man-to-man designed to dictate the tempo of the game and force opponents into long possessions:
That morphs into an aggressive half court man-to-man, and once the shot clock becomes a factor, Miller’s athletically gifted squads can use that as a sixth defender. That leads to a bevy of turnovers and poor shots, and given the roster Miller and his staff put together during his abbreviated offseason, he should have an outstanding defensive squad once again.
It starts inside, where Abdul Ado is a legitimate defensive centerpiece after starting 130 games and blocking 249 shots in a four-year SEC career. He ranked 42nd in the entire country in block rate last year, and having that kind of a rim protector frees up UC’s perimeter players to pressure without fear of conceding a layup line at the rim. Hayden Koval, one of the UNCG defectors, was even more prolific as a shot-swatter (3rd in block rate), and Ado’s presence allows him to properly slot in as a high-level backup (he’s too thin to play huge minutes in the AAC). The Bearcats also added Ody Oguama, a promising big man from Wake Forest who is the best rebounder of that trio.
Brannen’s scheme did not look for turnovers defensively in the same way, so Miller will likely have to discover if the guard trio of David DeJulius, Mika Adams-Woods, and Mike Saunders can be ballhawk-type defenders. Saunders and DeJulius are both strong and quick, and Saunders especially flashed the ability to be a pest last year. Depth comes from AJ McGinnis, another of the Greensboro imports, but he does not have the same kind of defensive upside as the returners.
Perhaps most important of all, though, is that Miller’s teams play hard. They guard with the zeal of a group that actually likes going to battle with and being around their coach, a welcome sight for UC fans after last year’s debacle. It’s a fanbase that grew attached to Mick Cronin’s brawl-ball, so seeing that edge return cannot come soon enough.
“As I’ve looked at Cincinnati basketball from a distance, I’ve always felt it was about grit, about toughness, about competitiveness, about playing with a chip on your shoulder, proving that you belong with the greatest programs in college basketball.” – Miller
How’s that sound, Bearcat fans?
The first-year coach’s greater challenge will be constructing an AAC-caliber offense from the jump. His UNCG teams relied heavily on their defenses to generate easy opportunities in transition, but they lacked the shooting to score efficiently in the half court. Optimizing lineups will be vital: Jeremiah Davenport is a lethal wing capable of playing small-ball 4, and if he adds counters off the bounce like this, he becomes a “top of the scouting report” kind of threat:
However, he should be paired with Ado as often as possible due to his defensive limitations. Conversely, Koval’s abilities as a perimeter shooter at center would go well with Oguama’s bruising nature inside. Jarrett Hensley was UNCG’s best-ever recruit and has an intriguing skill set, but he may not see the floor much right away behind that group.
Of the veteran guard trio, DeJulius has the most offensive upside after blossoming as a passer last year, but that requires breaking out of the season-long slump in which he found himself mired (shot 20.3% from deep after hitting 36.1% at Michigan the prior year). He actually opted out of the season for a brief period in late February/early March, so perhaps the coaching change and a more conventional schedule will be the necessary antidote.
A bounce-back year from John Newman would be a serious boost, as well. The Clemson transfer was an effective slasher in 2020, but he was a shell of himself last year while dealing with the after-effects of a knee injury. If he rediscovers his best form, he becomes a vital creation option on the wing. Madsen had some big games down the stretch last year and has immense potential as a shooter, and he offers some security if Newman’s knee issues linger.
Miller deserves credit for the way he varied his scheme at UNCG based on the personnel he had. With a star like Isaiah Miller last year, he went heavy on pick-and-rolls, but back in 2018-19, the Spartans ranked 14th in the entire country in possessions finished via screens away from the ball. He’ll need that flexibility this year, as the Bearcats’ path to an efficient offense is somewhat uncertain.
Bottom Line: Miller had a ton of work to do upon his arrival, saying he felt like he was “drinking from a fire hose” as he took on his new job. Fortunately, a familiar staff helped him find his footing, and he assembled a roster that fits both his own identity and the one he perceives UC basketball to possess. The defensive improvement should be considerable, but the Bearcats’ ceiling will really be determined on the offensive end. If DeJulius, Davenport, Newman, and Madsen can all improve – whether it be through rediscovered confidence or natural development – then UC’s absence from the NCAA Tournament will be much shorter than expected.
5. SMU
Key Returners: Kendric Davis, Emmanuel Bandoumel, Isiah Jasey (extra year)
Key Losses: Feron Hunt (pro), Tyson Jolly (transfer), Ethan Chargois (transfer), Darius McNeill (transfer), Yor Anei (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Michael Weathers (Texas Southern), Marcus Weathers (Duquesne), Zach Nutall (Sam Houston St.), Tristan Clark (Baylor), Stefan Todorovic, Zhuric Phelps, Jalen Smith, Tyler Lundblade
Lineup:
Outlook: COVID wreaked plenty of havoc across the college basketball landscape last year, but it’s hard to imagine a more difficult schedule quirk than not playing for more than a month before being thrown into the fires of postseason hoops. Such was the case for SMU, who had actually gotten off to a relatively promising start to the season before COVID forced the cancellation of seven games in the back half of February/early March. The Mustangs proceeded to lose by a combined four points in the AAC Tournament and NIT, leaving them to wonder what might have been with some actual rhythm prior to those events.
A somewhat tumultuous offseason followed, with multiple contributors transferring and human pogo stick Feron Hunt leaving for the professional ranks. Tim Jankovich’s seat has warmed to the point of having to publicly defend his job status, and the pressure is on for him to break through to an NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2017 (his debut season after taking over for Larry Brown). Extenuating circumstances – injuries, COVID, etc. – have contributed to his teams’ struggles, but one main issue should be laid at his feet: SMU’s second half disasters. Giving up leads has become a metronome-like constant for the Ponies (even in a lot of their wins), and Jankovich’s first task will be finding more consistency throughout games.
For a team with a point guard like Kendric Davis, that particular shortcoming is especially confusing. Few players control the game like Davis, who is probably the closest thing to a Steve Nash analog in college basketball right now (apologies to Collin Gillespie?), with his change of pace and impeccable vision allowing him to habitually set teammates up for easy shots:
He led the entire country in assist rate, was deadly efficient shooting the basketball from all over the court, and played a massive minute load for a team with minimal other ball-handling. He’s a dark horse All-American candidate this year, though that hinges on his team making a stronger push towards the NCAA Tournament. Side note - sadly, Hunt going pro means that the days of the Davis-to-Hunt lobs are over (*frowns deeply*):
With Davis at the helm, Jankovich allowed the offense to get out and run far more than he ever had before, with the Mustangs tempo far exceeding his previous four seasons:
The transition attack was absolutely lethal, finishing in the 93rd percentile according to Synergy, but the offense had some struggles in the half court thanks to a relative dearth of shooting and turnover issues for the non-Davis players. If you take out the point guard’s totals, the Ponies had just 130 assists to 197 turnovers – that’s bad! Jankovich smartly added another guard this offseason that’s accustomed to running in Texas Southern transfer Michael Weathers, a devastating driver who should benefit from not being responsible for so much of his team’s offense.
Weathers has been around the block, spending time at three different schools before this stop in Dallas, and last year’s SWAC Newcomer of the Year is a terrific athlete. With Davis around, he’ll see more time off the ball, along with returning shooter Emmanuel Bandoumel and Sam Houston St. transfer Zach Nutall. Like Weathers, Nutall had a similarly massive offensive burden for the Bearkats, and playing alongside better teammates with less responsibility could allow him to blossom. Freshman wing Stefan Todorovic could see early minutes thanks to his own lights-out shooting, and Zhuric Phelps is the point guard of the future after winning a Texas state title with powerhouse Duncanville, but the veterans will likely carry the load in the backcourt.
Joining Michael in Dallas is his twin brother Marcus Weathers, with the two reuniting for the first time since playing together at Miami (OH) in 2016-17. Watch them for more than five seconds and you’ll quickly realize they are not identical twins – Marcus is a burly bruiser who dominates on the offensive glass, making him a terrific fit in Jankovich’s system. Last year was the first time in his tenure SMU ranked outside the top 60 in offensive rebound rate, and adding Weathers and Tristan Clark to the mix should revitalize that source of offense.
Clark is an interesting case. He was one of the most dominant big men in the country for 14 games in 2018-19 before tearing his meniscus (75.5% from the floor, 34 blocks), but a difficult recovery from that injury may have sapped his explosion, even leading to a brief retirement from the sport. He claims to be feeling much closer to his old self, and that would give the Mustangs a solid center platoon with Isiah Jasey, a physical but offensively-limited big, opting to return to school.
Jasey and Clark will be the foundation to maintain (and ideally, improve upon) a defense that was already markedly better last year than in previous seasons under Jankovich. He has drifted farther and farther away from the zone looks he used early on in Dallas, and when coupled with more intimidating rim protectors, the defense emerged from the depths of hell it experienced in 2019 and 2020:
Having that kind of size inside along with playing more man-to-man allowed the defense to cut down (somewhat) on the amount of threes it gave up, ushering foes into the teeth of the defense. “Forcing more two-pointers while defending them at an elite level” is a pretty solid path to success. Neither Clark nor Jasey are quite on the level of the departed Yor Anei as a shot-blocker (unless Clark is back to full pre-injury 100%), but they’re big enough to make things quite difficult inside. Jahmar Young and Franklin Agunanne provide quality depth and injury assurance.
Bottom Line: There’s a ton of experience among the Mustangs’ top seven players, and if Jankovich needs to get a tournament appearance to keep his job, he at least has the right kind of roster to get it done. The offense still may struggle with a lack of shooting when the Weathers brothers play together with a center, but Davis continuing to lead a devastating transition attack will help compensate for that, as will second shot opportunities. The defense was “good enough” last year, so remaining adequate on that end will be pivotal for the Ponies’ postseason aspirations – and Jankovich’s future paychecks.
6. UCF
Key Returners: Darius Perry (extra year), Brandon Mahan, Isaiah Adams, Darin Green, Dre Fuller, CJ Walker, Jamille Reynolds, Sean Mobley, Tony Johnson
Key Losses: Collin Smith (transfer – DNP in 20-21)
Key Newcomers: Cheick Mbacke Diong (UNLV), Tyem Freeman (JUCO), Darius Johnson, P.J. Edwards, Ed’Xavior Rhodes
Lineup:
Outlook: If the above list of “Key Returners” looks long to you, then congratulations, you have earned your Gumshoe badge! (I think that’s a Where in the World Is Carmen Sandiego computer game reference – starting out hot in the UCF preview). Every player who started a game for the Knights is back this year, and our pal Bart Torvik has them at 96.9% of overall minutes returning – 15th most in the entire country.
Considering how this group meshed later in the season, Johnny Dawkins has to be thrilled about that. What started as a mess of a season – minimalist schedule in the non-conference, record of 4-9, 2-8 in league play – ended up becoming an encouraging launching pad for this year, with the Knights winning seven of their final 10 and finding an identity as lethal spread offense with multiple scorers and creators all over the floor.
The turnkey that unlocked that version of UCF was Darius Perry, the aggressive point guard transfer from Louisville who settled the attack after overcoming early season injury issues. That was especially important after Tony Johnson Jr. was lost for the year during halftime of the season opener, leaving a gaping void at the helm of the Knights’ assault. The numbers back up the eye test on Perry’s immense value: per Hoop-Explorer, UCF scored 111.3 points per 100 possessions (adjusted); without him, that dropped to just 100.7.
He isn’t a particularly dazzling scorer or passer, but he plays downhill and knocks down open shots, and his presence allows the team’s plethora of wings and forwards to slot in as complementary threats. Brandon Mahan, CJ Walker, and Isaiah Adams in particular saw massive jumps in efficiency when playing with Perry:
All can clearly be efficient scorers when put in the right spots, but if they are left with too large a creation burden, get ready for a turnover fest.
Mahan started off the year on a tear, pouring 22.5 PPG over the Knights’ first four games – against Auburn, Michigan, Florida St., and Cincinnati. That run of prolific scoring turned out to be a bit of a mirage, but he remained a useful option throughout the year, and his return from dabbling in the transfer portal was a major boost. Walker, meanwhile, is a nuclear athlete that struggles to shoot the ball, but he’s a warlord in the paint on both ends.
Adams might have the highest upside on the team, a big wing that does basically everything on the court. The rising sophomore needs to refine the rough edges of his game (turnovers, shooting), but if he develops as most sophomores do, he could be in for an all-conference campaign. He hit enough jumpers to force opponents to respect him from distance, and he’s a savvy cutter when he doesn’t have the ball:
He was only scratching the surface last year, and with a full offseason to continue expanding his game, his inside-out talents should make him a matchup nightmare.
Darin Green and Dre Fuller add to the impressive wing rotation, and their games complement each other well: Green is the gunner, while Fuller is a slasher that wants to use his broad frame to draw contact and get to the line. Fuller was forced to slide over to the point at times last year, and he should see an efficiency bump from getting to play his more natural position on the wing full-time. The Knights also welcome Tyem Freeman from the JUCO ranks, where the 6’6 athlete was the only freshman-eligible player on the NJCAA First Team All-American squad.
A major X-factor will be Jamille Reynolds, a 285-pound bully on the block who had stretches of being unstoppable inside last year. His finishing needs some polishing, but he brings an element of interior scoring that is not present on the rest of the roster, so expect Dawkins to play through him inside when he’s on the floor.
The Knights’ size and length plays up especially well on the defensive end, challenging perimeter shots and swallowing smaller guards (especially when Perry is off the floor). Dawkins has continued to lean predominantly on man-to-man (~85% of the time) after playing a ton of matchup zone previously in his career, and that weaponizes the switchability of his lineups. The zone still pops up on occasion, though, and it has been effective as a changeup, taking foes out of rhythm. Adams is an emerging star defensively, Freeman has stopper potential, and Perry can be a pain in the a** for opposing ball-handlers, as well.
What UCF lacked was a true rim protector to alter shots inside and clean up any perimeter mistakes, ultimately ranking 10th in the AAC in 2P% defense. There will never be another Tacko Fall, but Dawkins’ best units featured Fall completely removing the rim as an option. Enter Cheikh Mbacke Diong, an active big man who brings crucial reinforcement to the Knights’ frontcourt rotation. Reynolds is a mammoth human, but he’s more of a per-minute monster on the offensive end, and Mbacke Diong gives Dawkins a viable offense/defense platoon with the talented Reynolds.
For his part, Walker is an elite weakside shot-blocker, and having a dominant rebounder and post defender like Mbacke Diong should allow him to hunt those blocks a little more. Sean Mobley is more of a positional defender, and UCF’s upside is significantly higher when Walker occupies the power forward minutes.
Bottom Line: With so much returning talent from a team that surged late, optimism abounds around UCF. Mbacke Diong helps plug one of the few holes, and if the younger players can collectively improve, the Knights could finish as high as third in the league. It’s a balanced squad in multiple regards – offense/defense, multiple scoring options – and that should hopefully lead to night-to-night consistency. Dawkins has not had a prolific career in terms of postseason appearances, but this year’s UCF squad could be a dark horse candidate to get him his third NCAA bid.
Tier 3
7. Temple
Key Returners: Damian Dunn, Khalif Battle, Jeremiah Williams, Jake Forrester
Key Losses: JP Moorman (transfer), De’Vondre Perry (transfer), Brendan Barry (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Sage Tolbert (SEMO), Hysier Miller, Emmanuel Okpomo (Wake Forest), Zach Hicks
Note: Tolbert played 8 minutes last year in the Owls’ finale. I am still counting him as a newcomer because that barely counts. Don’t yell at me that he’s not a newcomer or you’re a boring grump.
Lineup:
Outlook: Another team, another season ravaged by COVID to the point of being almost meaningless. Temple did not play a game until December 19th, and the Owls managed to get only three contests in before January 11th. As if being that far behind the competition wasn’t bad enough, they also had a mini pause to close the year, sitting for nearly two weeks before losing in the AAC Tournament. The final results: 5-11 overall, only one non-conference game played, minimal conclusions of substance.
And considering it was Aaron McKie’s second year at the helm, the jury is still very much out on his tenure. Through two years, Temple is a disappointing 10-22 in league play, especially concerning considering his mentor, Fran Dunphy, went 13-5 in his final year and left McKie with several key parts of that squad. McKie has not stressed ball security the same way that Dunphy did (and John Chaney before him), and he has not found enough areas to compensate for that decline.
The issues have been most pronounced scoring the basketball, where McKie’s Owls have ranked 335th and 332nd nationally in 2P%, demonstrating an inability to get quality shots. Again, take last year with a grain of salt, but Temple ranked 41st in most shots taken from the mid-range and 338th in shots taken at the rim.
That’s especially troubling given the style McKie wants to play and the admittedly promising perimeter group he has assembled. Temple consistently sets up in four-out alignments, using some initial off-ball action to get the ball in the hands of Damian Dunn, Khalif Battle, and Jeremiah Williams, three talented young guards who excel at getting downhill. When the offense is clicking, you get lovely possessions like this:
Too often, though, the action stalls out, and one of those three has to drive into the teeth of a set defense, hoping to either get fouled or settling for a pull-up jumper. That approach works at times – Dunn led the entire country in fouls drawn per 40 minutes, and between those three 6’5 guards and physical forward Jake Forrester, Temple is as good a bet as any team to lead the country in free throw rate – but possessions like this came far more frequently:
Of course, some of that is understandable given the youth of Dunn, Williams, and Battle (Battle barely played during his freshman year at Butler), so getting significant leaps from all three could unlock a much higher ceiling for this Owl squad. Local Philly star Hysier Miller is not 6’5 like his new teammates, but he shares the same competitive streak and driving ability, likely providing more quality depth than veteran Tai Strickland. Plus, Jahlil White could emerge as a fourth big guard after missing last season with a torn meniscus. The Jon Rothstein hype is real:
That spread attack also hinges on having some shooting to open up the floor, and outside of Battle, this roster is devoid of proven perimeter threats. JP Moorman and De’Vondre Perry were able to invert the court and draw out opposing bigs, something that Forrester and SEMO transfer Sage Tolbert cannot offer. Thus, Nick Jourdain becomes pivotal. The rising sophomore forward started the season’s final three games, knocking down five his seven 3P attempts, and if he can make somewhere in the high 30s from deep, it would go a long way towards giving the guards more open driving lanes. Freshman Zach Hicks has the stroke to make a similar impact, but he’s extremely thin, so he may be limited to spot duty behind Jourdain and Tolbert (a more conventional power forward).
If McKie can get his scorers in position to take better shots, then Temple could finally climb the AAC standings, because the defense has been solid in his first two years. For all of the shot selection problems on offense, the Owls have been elite in that department on D, keeping foes out of the paint and forcing them into the mid-range. Forrester is not a shot-blocker by any means, but he defends well positionally, and the guards all have outstanding length with which to challenge shots.
The AAC is sprinkled with several unconventional defenses (Tulane’s trapping, Memphis’ full court pressure, Tulsa’s matchup zone, etc.), but Temple is going to give you a simple half court man-to-man, almost exclusively. The Owls rotate well against drivers out of that alignment, and they do not actually give up a massive portion of threes, an impressive stat considering how much they protect the rim.
Last year’s team did not turn foes over the way the 2020 version did, dropping from 54th in steal rate all the way to 340th. The addition of Miller in the backcourt gives McKie a legit ball pressure weapon to unleash on opposing ball-handlers, and his young guards should grow more confident taking chances on the perimeter with disciplined help around them. An uptick in steals could take the Owls back up into the top 60 or so in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
Bottom Line: The guard trio here is quite tantalizing, and if they can all take a simultaneous step forward in their efficiency, the Owls could certainly fly higher than this. Shot selection questions linger, though, and the lane will be clogged if Jourdain’s final three games was only a mirage. The length defensively should establish a decent floor – I’d be pretty surprised if Temple finished 10th or 11th – but I’m firmly in a “see it before I believe it” mode on McKie at this point, especially with the Wes Miller hire at Cincinnati and UCF largely running it back.
8. Tulsa
Key Returners: Darien Jackson (extra year), Curtis Haywood, Keyshawn Embery-Simpson, Rey Idowu
Key Losses: Brandon Rachal, Elijah Joiner (transfer), Austin Richie (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Sam Griffin (UT Arlington), Jeriah Horne (Colorado), LaDavius Draine (Southern Miss), Tim Dalger (JUCO), Gavyn Elkamil, Sterling Gibson-Chapman
Lineup:
Outlook: Riding high after sharing the American regular season title in 2020, the Golden Hurricane could not keep the momentum going during the COVID season of 2021, dropping below .500 in league play – and below .500 overall, despite two non-Division I wins. An up-and-down pattern has clearly emerged in Frank Haith’s tenure at Tulsa, and this highly scientific chart proves it:
That can be interpreted in multiple ways. For the optimists, it means Tulsa is due for a rebound back up to double-digit league wins, and with slasher Darien Jackson using his extra year and Jeriah Horne boomeranging back to town after a year at Colorado, reasons for excitement certainly do exist. On the other hand, though, that trend indicates Haith’s inability to generate sustained success from year-to-year.
For what it’s worth, that trend appears likely to break this year, but that’s not a positive sign for the Golden Hurricane. Even with Jackson and Horne on hand, Tulsa looks like a bottom half squad in the American, lacking enough offensive weaponry to complement a matchup zone-based defensive scheme that has been the bedrock of the team for multiple years.
That zone was especially effective back in 2020, but it came due to some good fortune, with opponents shooting sub-30% from beyond the arc against the Golden Hurricane. The regression monster attacked with a vengeance last year, as foes made 34.1% from deep, roughly the national average, and a shift like that helped drop the defense from 34th in the country in 2020 (per KenPom’s AdjDE) to 91st last year. Haith’s defense effectively takes away the rim but concedes a huge volume of threes every season, so it is largely at the mercy of opponents making or missing those shots.
Even more than the 3P regression, though, last year’s defense faded due to a total inability to finish possessions on the glass. Haith has been a Division I head coach for 17 seasons, notably employing small-ball lineups and zones at multiple points along the way, and yet he’s never had a team rebound as poorly as the 2020-21 Golden Hurricane. The below sequence is unacceptable, but it happened far too often (watch Haith at the bottom of the screen after the bucket – he ain’t pleased!):
Center Rey Idowu is the obvious culprit given his meager rebounding numbers, but outside of the departed Brandon Rachal, it was really a teamwide issue. Inserting Horne back into the lineup will be a massive boost after the versatile forward ranked 2nd in the entire Pac-12 in defensive rebounding rate, but it will take a collective effort to truly fix that flaw. Haith added two JUCO glass-eaters in Tim Dalger and Nikita Konstantynovskyi, but neither is a needle-mover in the American.
Still, the defense will remain the strength of the team, as the morphing zone has become a particular challenge in a conference that has lacked the shooting prowess to crack it open like an egg. Wings like Horne, LaDavius Draine, and Curtis Haywood II have the length to bother opponents, and Haith does not have a single scholarship player listed below 6’3 on his entire roster.
Offense is, has been, and will continue to be the issue. Like its opponents, Tulsa has not had the floor spacers to spread the floor, and considering Haith favors a pick-and-roll attack reliant on guards getting into driving gaps and feeding shooters around the arc, that’s a major issue. Haywood and Keyshawn Embery-Simpson should take over as the primary facilitator following Elijah Joiner’s departure, and Jackson is outstanding at finishing after attacking closeouts; the 6’3 guard somehow ranked 4th in the entire country in 2P%.
No one in that trio proved to be a viable PnR attacker last year, though, meaning this year’s offense could be particularly ugly:
Zero points in 10 PnR possessions from Haywood is quite a feat!
Horne and former UT Arlington Maverick Sam Griffin do boost the Golden Hurricane’s shooting, though, as both shot over 39% on 50+ makes last season. Playing those two together likely unlocks the best the offense has to offer, and Horne may even slide down to the 5 spot at times in small-ball looks. He was a vital part of a KenPom top 10 team last year and led the Pac-12 in offensive rating, so it’s impossible to overstate his importance to a team desperately in need of efficient scoring options. Draine has also shown the ability to hit shots in the past at Southern Miss, but he’s struggled more of late; he will likely welcome returning to a complementary role.
The freshman class does not look to have any mega-impact guys, but Sterling Gaston-Chapman and Gavyn Elkamil both have the length to contribute defensively; if either one can also add some offensive pop, he’ll have an inside track to early playing time. Local recruit Anthony Pritchard should be the point guard of the future, but if he has to play major minutes this year, it’s probably a bad sign for Tulsa as a whole.
Bottom Line: Haith has largely maintained the Tulsa basketball trajectory set by his predecessors, Danny Manning and Doug Wojcik: win 20 games roughly half the time, never sink too far down the standings in a bad year. The Golden Hurricane are rarely a sexy preseason pick, but Haith has objectively been steady at the helm, often exceeding middling expectations. Thus, slotting them 8th could be too low, especially given the pattern of his prior performances, but the teams above Tulsa just appear to have more juice this time around.
Tier 4
9. Tulane
Key Returners: Jaylen Forbes, Kevin Cross, Sion James, Tylan Pope, Nobal Days, RJ McGee
Key Losses: Jordan Walker (transfer), Gabe Watson (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Jalen Cook (LSU), DeVon Baker (UNC Asheville), Scott Spencer (La Salle), Quentin Scott (Texas St.), Braelee Albert (Vanderbilt)
Lineup:
Outlook: The Ron Hunter rebuild continues in the Bayou, and while it may not have progressed to the degree that we expected after two years, the 2021 Green Wave did achieve their best KenPom ranking since 2007. Granted, that was only 144th, but the mess of the Mike Dunleavy era has been washed away, and the arrow does appear to be pointed upwards in the future. Two key transfer losses definitely rob Hunter of some offensive creativity, but he remained active on the recruiting trail, and the incredibly young roster (325th in experience last year) should continue to blossom as it matures.
The offense takes a hit without key creators Jordan Walker and Gabe Watson, but for a unit that dragged down the Green Wave all year, finding new primary ball-handlers might actually be reason for improvement – especially in an offense so reliant on spread pick-and-rolls. Hunter has long been a heavy user of ball screens, and last year’s team was no different, employing PnR action on 39.4% of possessions – 10th in the entire country, per Synergy. That puts the burden on incoming guards Jalen Cook and DeVon Baker, two players with something to prove after coming off semi-lost seasons.
Cook arrives from big brother LSU as an ideal fit for Hunter’s system on both ends. The stoutly-built guard barely saw the floor behind the Tigers’ talented backcourt, but he flashed impressive playmaking and shooting ability in limited minutes:
Yes, that’s against Vandy, but goodness gracious that split and burst! Baker, meanwhile, would have been a Big South Player of the Year candidate had he stayed healthy, a lightning-quick driver whose jumper has progressed throughout his college career. He largely moved off the ball after his freshman year, but he handled the rock just fine in 2018-19, and he should get some cracks at running the offense in New Orleans.
If Hunter opts to keep Baker mostly off the ball, then a larger burden will fall on do-everything wing Sion James, who tantalized with his potential as a freshman. The 6’5 youngster actually finished second on the team in assists last year, displaying an ability to feel out the defense and make the right read. He needs to show more of an offensive game, though, or opponents will sag off him and take away passing lanes. Jaylen Forbes is another option for on-ball touches, but that was not his role at all last year, as he found success as a catch-and-shoot or catch-and-attack threat.
The issue with Hunter’s offensive approach was relatively simple: spread pick-and-rolls do not work very well if the defense has zero reason to spread out. Tulane’s perimeter shooting was a season-long barftastic disaster, finishing 319th nationally in 3P% while making below 30% of attempts. Fortunately, the only competent shooter returns in Forbes, and La Salle transfer Scott Spencer adds another legitimate sharpshooter to the wing rotation. Internal improvement from the team’s cadre of brick-layers (James, Kevin Cross, RJ McGee, Jadan Coleman) would also be enormous in allowing the offense to take a step up out of the muck, but it’s hard to expect that.
Due to the nature of the system, Tulane’s bigs do not see many high-value touches, but athletic forward Tylan Pope was mega-aggressive when he got on the court. He’s undersized at just 6’6, but he’s strong and quick, making him a difficult matchup for most opposing forwards. He also eats on the offensive glass thanks to his ludicrous activity level, and if he can finish inside at a higher rate this season, he could be the secret to unlocking a more efficient attack.
Regardless of how much the offense improves, though, Tulane should be able to once again rely on Hunter’s bread-and-butter: the defense. The Green Wave showed massive improvement on that end last season, vaulting up from 326th in 2P% to 67th in just one year. Hunter’s trapping zones compensate for a relative lack of size by swarming guards and forcing turnovers, and having length all over the court consistently forced foes into difficult shots.
McGee, James, and Coleman were menaces from the wing, Nobal Days filled his role well as a hyper-active trapper and shot-blocker in the frontcourt, and Texas State transfer Quentin Scott adds another multi-positional piece from the Sun Belt’s best defense. Baker comes from a pressure defensive system, and Cook absolutely racked up steals when he got on the floor. Clearly, the ingredients for another massively disruptive unit are here.
Hunter extended his defense full court more frequently last year, but it was still not even a top 75 rate nationally, instead opting to wait patiently for shaky ball-handlers to wander into terrible spots across the mid-court line like a Venus flytrap. Scrambling around in a zone has consistently left Hunter’s teams exposed on the glass, but he clearly believes his team can offset those second shots with turnovers. Like many pressure-reliant teams, Tulane can be beaten via savvy ball movement and competent perimeter shooting (the latter of which has been a rarity in the AAC in recent years).
Bottom Line: Hunter’s system is always a challenge to play against, and with this assortment of capable defenders, foes will likely have headaches against the Green Wave. Tulane has finished last and second-last in the American in Hunter’s two seasons so far, but with some progress from the developing youngsters on offense and impactful debuts from Cook, Baker, and Spencer, Tulane could continue its methodical crawl up the league standings.
10. South Florida
Key Returners: Caleb Murphy, Jamir Chaplin, Russel Tchewa
Key Losses: David Collins (transfer), Alexis Yetna (transfer), Michael Durr (transfer), Justin Brown (transfer), Xavier Castaneda (transfer), Rashun Williams (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Serrel Smith (ETSU), Javon Greene (George Mason), Jalyn McCreary (South Carolina), Corey Walker (Tennessee), Sam Hines (Denver), Jake Boggs (UNCW), Bayron Matos (New Mexico), Trey Moss
Lineup:
Outlook: Welcome to Extreme Makeover: AAC Edition, starring the South Florida basketball program! The Bulls underwent a gut rehab this offseason, shedding 10 players to the transfer portal (including five of the top six scorers) while bringing in seven newcomers via that route. It was likely a necessary overhaul after last year’s Bulls collapsed following a January COVID pause, tumbling to a 2-8 finish after a promising start to the year. Considering the heavy continuity in the lineup from 2019-20 and the addition of a top 100 recruit, it was a disastrous result, and Coach Brian Gregory is now ready to restart with a bevy of new pieces.
The primary constant is that aforementioned top 100 recruit: Caleb Murphy, a downhill guard with an absolutely iconic head of lettuce:
Despite his talents as a scorer and creator (9th in the AAC in assist rate), Murphy embodied the Bulls’ struggles last year: he could not shoot from anywhere (37.0%/19.4%/58.7% splits), he struggled with turnovers (54, compared to 60 assists), and he faded in February after the team stoppage. Gregory gives his guards a tremendous amount of freedom, especially in the half court, and Murphy will need to improve his decision-making and perimeter stroke as he undergoes the sophomore leap.
He’ll share ball-handling duties with several of the newcomers, including George Mason transfer Javon Greene, ETSU transfer Serrel Smith, and freshman Trey Moss. Moss is the only true point guard of the group, though, so the pressure will remain on Murphy to clean up his game. Greene and Smith can provide secondary creation, but both had efficiency issues of their own in 2020-21, an ominous sign for Gregory’s pick-and-roll-heavy offense. At the very least, Greene can knock down perimeter shots, an area of major concern for this squad.
The Bulls also could not shoot inside the arc, ranking 335th nationally in 2P%, an especially appalling number considering they were physically huge (23rd in average height). Some of those issues can be directly attributable to shot selection, with South Florida taking nearly as many shots from mid-range (32.9%) as it did at the rim (34.1%), another area which Murphy exemplified:
Even bigger than that issue, though, was finishing once at the rim, where the Bulls ranked 337th (per Hoop-Math). Gregory’s system is highly leveraged on drives, and the guards simply could not finish over size on plays like this:
The Bulls lack of spacing contributed heavily to this issue, allowing opponents to help liberally and send multiple defenders to challenge finishes. UNCW transfer Jake Boggs is a sniper who could alleviate those concerns somewhat, though he’ll need to find a role defensively after stepping up in competition. Shooting prowess could also help JUCO transfer DJ Patrick steal minutes on the wing from veteran Jamir Chaplin, who is much more effective as a slasher (a slasher that shoots 41% from the free throw line…).
An anemic offense is nothing new under Gregory, though. In 2019 and 2020 – and for most of last year – the Bulls have been able to rely on a stingy defense, but that that vanished after the COVID pause. An injury to versatile forward Alexis Yetna contributed to the tailspin, but the drop clearly began before he went down:
From a year-to-year perspective, the drop is almost entirely attributable to an inability to force turnovers, dropping form 26th in steal rate to 280th, which makes sense considering grand larcenist LaQuincy Rideau was no longer around. Greene could be a massive addition here after ranking 35th nationally in that stat last year, and Murphy has some promise as a ballhawk.
The frontcourt sees plenty of turnover too, including the departure of program pillars Yetna and Michael Durr. Gregory will rely on a new cast of characters to replicate their tremendous rim protection and defensive rebounding, with Corey Walker offering the highest upside after the former top 75 recruit had a lost season in Knoxville last year (COVID, broken toe). If the athletic product of Hargrave Military can get on the floor, he could put up a reasonable Yetna impersonation.
Jalyn McCreary also has power conference pedigree, but that did not help the monstrous Russell Tchewa last year, who disappointed as a rebounder and finisher after arriving from Texas Tech despite his gargantuan size. Bayron Matos was a role player for an abysmal New Mexico team, so he hardly projects as the definitive answer, either. Denver transfer Sam Hines was productive as a freshman, but he’s undersized and comes from one of the worst teams in the country. Regardless of who actually gets the minutes, they’ll be counted on to maintain South Florida’s tremendous work on the offensive glass, always a key source of points for Gregory’s bricky shooting teams.
Bottom Line: The problem with such a major roster overhaul is that it’s incredibly difficult to find enough players up to the competition level in the AAC. Guys like Boggs, Smith, and Greene were solid at their previous stops, but if that was for mediocre teams, what’s stopping this one from being mediocre, as well? And that’s not even mentioning guys like Hines and Matos, who will need to provide minutes here after playing for awful teams in 2020-21. A ton depends on Murphy’s development as the team’s maestro and rediscovering the aggressive defensive mentality that abandoned the Bulls last year, but as of now, it looks like a ton of change that’s lacking in actual, tangible progress.
11. East Carolina
Key Returners: Brandon Suggs, JJ Miles (extra year), Tremont Robinson-White, Tristen Newton, Ludgy Debaut
Key Losses: Jayden Gardner (transfer), Bitumba Baruti (transfer), Tyrie Jackson
Key Newcomers: Wynston Tabbs (Boston College), Vance Jackson (Arkansas), Alanzo Frink (South Carolina), Alexis Reyes, Javon Small
Lineup:
Outlook: It was a tale of two calendar years for the Pirates last year. In 2020, they started 7-1 (1-1 in AAC play), looking primed to deliver on the potential that comes with returning nearly all of their rotation from the prior season (albeit against a pillow-soft schedule). But unfortunately, the calendar flipped to 2021, and the Pirates’ ships sank into the depths as they went 1-10 to close the year. Some of that was out of their control – ECU had a 2-week COVID pause in January and a 3-week pause in February – but it’s also a cautionary tale in banking on continuity to automatically equal rapid improvement.
This year’s edition brings back quite a few pieces, although losing star forward Jayden Gardner to the transfer portal is a massive blow. Gardner was the hub of the offense, a burly bowling ball who used his frame to live at the free throw line and drew extra attention whenever he had the rock. Like the rest of the ECU roster, though, he lacked a perimeter game and lived in the mid-range, and that issue plagued the Pirates all season long: they had no shooters that even remotely frightened opponents.
That made scoring in the half court nearly impossible, as foes could sag into driving gaps with impunity no matter who was on the court. To make matters worse, Coach Joe Dooley likes to play two true bigs in a high-low attack, further exacerbating the spacing issues and making it easy to double-team Gardner. Look at how UCF is defending this alignment – #21 Ludgy Debaut’s man is 15 feet from him, already double-teaming Gardner before the pass is even thrown:
ECU also saw a ton of zone last season thanks to their shooting concerns, facing it on 26.7% of possessions, per Synergy – the 13th-highest rate in the country. All of this led to a half court attack that ranked outside the top 200 in KenPom’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency for the third straight year under Dooley.
With some tweaks in personnel, there’s some hope for change there, and well-traveled forward Vance Jackson is the skeleton key. He has the size to allow Dooley to continue playing large lineups, but he also brings a 35.4% career 3P stroke to the table, a rate that would have made him the best shooter on the team last year (by a decent margin, too). He got buried on a talented team at Arkansas, but he has tremendous pedigree, and he even flashed solid passing skills during his sophomore campaign at New Mexico. JJ Miles dabbled in that role last year, but Dooley often preferred to play he and Brandon Suggs on the wing; the former FGCU boss now has a clear option as a stretch four.
That aids the high-low attack, freeing up more room for Debaut and South Carolina transfer Alanzo Frink to work inside. Debaut is nothing more than a finisher, but Frink could be a Gardner-like force in the paint in Dooley’s system. Of course, that requires him being healthy, and he only managed to play three games for Frank Martin in 2020-21.
Somewhat unsurprising for a team playing against mega-packed in defenses, ECU had a sky high assist rate, but actually finishing 1st in the entire country in that category is a credit to Tremont Robinson-White and Tristen Newton, the “two heads” of the two-headed point guard attack. Neither player can shoot, though, which makes Wynston Tabbs a critical addition in the backcourt. He is not the passer that TRW or Newton is, but he hit 40% of his triples last year before violating COVID protocols and missing the remainder of the year. He also missed a year and a half with a knee injury, so he clearly is a risk as well – but a worthy gamble for an East Carolina squad in need of talent.
A seven-player freshman class rounds out the roster, and Alexis Reyes (Putnam Science Academy) and Javon Small (Compass Prep) appear to be the most likely to play early after arriving from impressive high school programs. Reyes fits the Miles/Suggs blueprint as a bigger wing, and if he proves he can hit shots at a higher rate than those two, he could steal minutes quickly. Small and RJ Felton are the only options for guard depth (especially vital if Tabbs’ knee acts up), though again, Dooley’s preference to play bigger wings negates their importance somewhat. That could help Tay Mosher get on the floor during his freshman campaign.
It’s worth mentioning that Dooley’s predilection for huge lineups jump-started the defense last year, elevating that unit to 107th in the country from 213th in 2020 (per KenPom). The added length helped the Pirates generate more “events” – steals and blocks – while also contesting jumpers. Still, shot distribution was an issue here, with the Pirates allowing too many threes and not running foes off the arc.
Put another way, ECU took 34.5% of its shots from the mid-range, while its opponents took only 21.8% (per Hoop-Math). That 12.7% difference was the 8th-highest in the country, in the company of national bottom feeders like Alcorn St. (13.7%) and Chicago St. (12.2%). The math is simply not in a team’s favor if it is taking more difficult shots than its opponents.
Bottom Line: Winning at East Carolina is exceedingly difficult, so perhaps we can forgive Joe Dooley for the 10-38 conference record he has put together through his first three seasons. Still, you’d like to see measurable progress at some point, and losing Gardner to the transfer portal throws a wrench in that possibility. If Frink and Tabbs are both healthy all season and Jackson rediscovers his form in a larger role, then ECU could be feisty, but even that may not be enough to pull this moribund program out of the AAC cellar.