- Ky McKeon
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Drew Timme, Jr., Gonzaga
Coach of the Year: Mark Few, Gonzaga
Newcomer of the Year: Chet Holmgren, Fr. Gonzaga
Freshman of the Year: Chet Holmgren, Fr. Gonzaga
Tier 3
3. San Francisco
Key Returners: Jamaree Bouyea, Khalil Shabazz, Dzmitry Ryuny, Josh Kunen, Julian Rishwain
Key Losses: Taavi Jurkatamm, Damari Milstead, Samba Kane
Key Newcomers: Yauhen Massalski (San Diego), Patrick Tape (Duke), Gabe Stefanini (Columbia), Zane Meeks (Nevada)
Lineup:
Outlook: The Dons suffered through a tough year on the heels of the program’s second straight top 75 KenPom finish. Inconsistency plagued them all season long, perhaps best evidenced by their opening game loss to UMass Lowell and win over Virginia just two days later. Six straight WCC losses to close out the regular season planted USF among the conference cellar dwellers, but the Dons still ended the year within KenPom’s top 100.
Head coach Todd Golden is one of the Weave’s favorite coaches due to his embracement of analytics and smart coaching style. He emphasizes shooting 3s and finding good clean looks early in the shot clock. Last season the Dons were a little too over-reliant on the trey-ball, ranking 2nd in the country in 3PA rate. Lack of topline size and a true post presence hurt USF offensively, forcing them to live and die by the triple. This lack of size also hurt the Dons’ rebounding effort and ability to get to the FT line, ranking just 344th in FT rate nationally in 2020-21. That weakness is emphatically solved this season with the arrival of two massive transfers; their presence plus the return of three All-Conference players has USF the favorites to finish 3rd in the league behind Gonzaga and BYU.
USF returns its two best guards from a season ago in Jamaree Bouyea and Khalil Shabazz. Both players are maestros in Golden’s ball-screen heavy offense and have the ability to score every time down the court. Bouyea, a 1st Team All-WCC honoree last season, has started every game over the past two years. He was an efficiency monster last year, shooting 37% from 3 and 56% from 2 while limiting turnovers and ranking 5th in the conference in usage. Bouyea is long, quick, and ridiculously smooth and is simply a treat to watch on the basketball floor; look for him to shine in his encore season.
Shabazz, a 2nd Team All-WCC honoree in ’20-21, is a gunner when on the court and ranked 2nd in the league in usage last season. His efficiency decreased last year, as shots weren’t falling as they usually do, but rest assured he’s one of the best pure scorers the conference has to offer. Whereas Bouyea prefers to take the ball all the way to the cup on drives, Shabazz is more of a pull-up specialist. Over 50% of Bouyea’s shot attempts came near the rim last season versus just under 25% of Shabazz’s (per Hoop-Math). There’s whispers Shabazz might go back to his freshman 6th man role this year where he’ll be used as a sparkplug and instant offense off the pine. Like Bouyea, Shabazz is a sticky on-ball defender, and he led the WCC in steal rate last season.
One of either Dzmitry Ryuny, Josh Kunen, or Julian Rishwain will start on the wing. Ryuny earned HM All-WCC honors last year after shooting 37% from 3 and providing steady rebounding and decent shot-blocking. He’ll get to slide down to a more comfortable position this season with the arrival of a couple true bigs, saving him from being forced to bang inside at just a shade over 200 lbs. Kunen is a glue guy, an unsung hero who contributes in multiple facets while on the floor. He makes hustle plays, defends, shoots, and plays several spots on the floor. Whether in the starting five or in a key role off the bench, Kunen will find his minutes. Rishwain, a former BC transfer, provides more 3-point shooting. He had a two-game outburst last season where he averaged 23 PPG on 15/24 shooting.
Columbia transfer Gabe Stefanini is the most likely candidate to take Shabazz’s starting spot (that is if USF does in fact decide to use Shabazz in a 6th man weapon role). Stefanini was a 2nd Team All-Ivy member back in 2018-19 but hasn’t played the past two seasons. A career 41.5% 3P shooter, Stefanini is very talented and can handle the ball, spot-up, or create his own shot. His presence gives the Dons a potent and deep backcourt rotation.
As alluded to above, USF has solved its topline size issue with the additions of San Diego transfer Yauhen Massalski and Duke transfer Patrick Tape. In addition to helping USF’s offense, the pair will bolster a Don defense that was vulnerable near the bucket last season. Golden preaches taking away the 3 defensively, and USF did so by ranking 4th nationally in 3PA rate allowed, but that can also lead to easy rim opportunities and charity stripe trips without a reliable interior defender. Massalski and Tape are both excellent defenders, rebounders, and shot blockers.
Massalski’s impact on defense can be seen by his on/off splits last year at San Diego:
Per Hoop-Explorer
The Toreros were a sieve without the big man on the floor, and the Dons hope he can have a similar impact for them. Dubbed “Squirrel” by former USD coach Lamont Smith because, “he’s moving 99,000 miles an hour, and he’s still the same way” . Massalski is a ball of energy tucked into a 6’10” 250 lb. frame.
THE PASSION FROM THE SQUIRREL
As a junior, Massalski led the WCC in OR% and ranked 2nd in DR%. He is exactly what USF was missing.
Just in case he isn’t though, Golden went out and got Patrick Tape as well. Tape barely saw the floor at Duke but tore it up at Columbia the three years prior. He’s a talented post who will impact both ends of the floor. USF is reportedly considering playing Tape and Massalski together, which will be interesting for a team that preaches floor spacing.
Rounding out Golden’s 9-man rotation is Nevada transfer Zane Meeks, a 6’9” shooter who can play multiple positions. Meeks will be used often at both the 3 and 4 this season. Reserves Jonas Visser, Isaiah Hawthorne, and Maj Dusanic will continue their bench roles, while freshman Ndewedo Newbury, a former high jumper at his London HS, seems to be a prime candidate for a redshirt.
Bottom Line: USF has the top-end talent, shooting, size, and coaching to compete at the top of the WCC this season. This conference has sent three teams to the Dance before, and the Dons are a legitimate threat to earn an at-large bid to the 2022 NCAA Tournament.
4. Saint Mary’s
Key Returners: Tommy Kuhse, Matthias Tass, Logan Johnson, Dan Fotu, Alex Ducas, Kyle Bowen, Jabe Mullins, Mitchell Saxen, Quinn Clinton, Judah Brown, Leemet Bockler
Key Losses: None
Key Newcomers: Chris Howell, Augustas Marciulionis
Lineup:
Outlook: On paper Randy Bennett had his worst team in several years in 2020-21. Last season’s version of the Gaels was young and lacked star-power, and only 40% of its minutes returned from the year prior. Still, Saint Mary’s was a b*tch to play against. The Gaels took down Northern Iowa, South Dakota State, and Colorado State in non-conference play and held their own against the better WCC squads. The reason for this simple: Randy Bennett is awesome, and his teams have a definitive floor.
This season expect to see a Gaels squad more in tune with Bennett’s Tourney-caliber teams of the five years prior to 2020-21. Saint Mary’s returns literally everyone from last season and welcomes back two key players whose seasons were cut short from injury. Since 2010 Saint Mary’s has finished inside the KenPom top 40 eight times – there’s plenty of reason to believe that happens again in 2021-22.
Bennett enters his 21st season at the helm of Saint Mary’s, so we can safely assume to know the style of basketball the Gaels will play. Defensively, Bennett teams have certain “staples”, stuff they are always good at year in and year out. Bennett’s squads are consistently good at 1) defensive rebounding, 2) disallowing 3-point attempts, and 3) making teams beat them with the dribble instead of the pass.
Info per KenPom
Despite a glaring lack of talent, those Bennett staples helped catapult the Gaels to ranking as the nation’s 13th best defensive squad per KenPom, a personal best for Bennett over his long career. To beat Saint Mary’s on this end of the floor, you either must be extremely talented and/or extremely athletic, and even then sometimes that’s not enough. Bennett’s defensive style is susceptible to rim attack, but even though last year’s Saint Mary’s squad gave up the 4th highest percentage of rim looks in the country, it held opponents to the 12th lowest FG% at the rim nationally. Size and discipline can do that.
Offensively, Bennett slows things down to a crawl. Saint Mary’s was the 10th slowest offensive team in the country last season (7th slowest overall), which is pretty much consistent over Bennett’s 20+ year career. The Gaels run a heavy dose of pick-n-roll, look for easy spot-up chances, and feed their oft-skilled big men on the block. Saint Mary’s pace is one of the many reasons it’s not only difficult to beat the Gaels, it’s also difficult to cover against them as a favorite.
Bennett’s personnel looks almost exactly the same as last season. Point guard Tommy Kuhse returns for his 5th year to lead the attack, and his primary backcourt mate, Logan Johnson, does as well. Kuhse’s story is incredible, going from walk-on to starting PG (and leading minutes earner) on a legitimate Division I squad. He’s as steady as they come from a ball handling and table setting perspective, and last year showed he could pace his squad in scoring. While not a great shooter, Kuhse is excellent at knifing his way into the lane where he can hit tough floaters or kick / dump to open teammates. Defensively, he’s a pest to opponent ball handlers.
Graceful as a swan
Johnson earned All-WCC 2nd Team honors after turning it on in conference play, averaging 15.5 PPG over 10 contests. He finally showed his true potential after barely seeing the floor at Cincinnati as a freshman and getting benched at Saint Mary’s as a sophomore. Like Kuhse, Johnson isn’t a good outside shooter, meaning when these two share the floor, as they often do, shooting might come at a premium.
Matthias Tass, Dan Fotu, and Alex Ducas, a trio of international flavor in true Bennett fashion, round out the Gaels’ presumptive starting five. Tass was the player many pegged to break out last season and be an All-League caliber forward, and while he played well, he wasn’t revolutionary. Tass should only improve from last season, especially after missing half a year with an ACL tear. He’s a good offensive big man who can hold his own on the glass and in the paint defensively.
Fotu started a handful of games for the 2020 Tourney-caliber squad and was a regular in the starting five last season. He brings value as a fierce rebounder and versatile offensive presence. Fotu has a developing outside shot and enough skilled footwork to be a real weapon offensively. Ducas could sneakily be the Gaels’ best player this season. He only played 14 games last year due to injury but looked to be a guy who could lead this team in scoring on a nightly basis. Over a two-game stretch at the beginning of last year, Ducas averaged 22 PPG and shot 9/16 from deep.
Bolstering the Gael frontcourt will be Aussie Kyle Bowen, sophomore center Mitchell Saxen, and former 3-star recruit Judah Brown. Bowen started six games last season and contributed as a rebounder and floor stretcher (though his shooting percentage lagged a bit). Saxen somehow made the WCC’s All-Freshman Team after playing just under 10 MPG and averaging 1.7 PPG and 1.4 RPG in conference play. He’ll be the “next man up” at the center position behind Tass and adds value as a rim protector. Brown has some good basketball ahead of him with his length and athleticism, two things most of this roster lacks. Former Utah transfer Matt Van Komen, a 7’4” center, will add further depth to the frontcourt rotation. Best thing about Matt Van Komen? He’s 7-foot-4.
Bennett’s backcourt got a whole lot deeper with the addition of two promising freshman guards. Chris Howell, a 3-star prospect, and Augustas Marciulionis, said by some to be the #1 European recruit coming to college this season, could each carve out a role this season. Howell has great size for a ball handler and his length makes him a great potential defender. Like Brown above, he has a bright future ahead of him. Marciulionis hails from Lithuania and came to Saint Mary’s in part due to Bennett’s reputation with international prospects. His dad played in the NBA and is a FIBA Hall-of-Famer, and Augustas himself has already played against high-level competition. Though Bennett doesn’t love playing true freshmen, it might be impossible to keep Marciulionis off the floor – he’s quick, crafty, super skilled, and extremely poised. He’s one of those players who is so good with his off-hand that you assume he’s left-handed until he shoots.
Of course, for these freshmen to play they need to beat out three rotation incumbents in Jabe Mullins, Quinn Clinton, and Leemet Bockler, each of whom found floor time last season and each of whom looks to improve and make a bigger impact on the lineup this season. Mullins is one to watch in particular; he was a 4-star recruit and the #1 prospect in Washington in 2020 but didn’t have the season many hoped he would. He struggled to find his shot and looked every bit a freshman. He should bounce back in 2021-22. Clinton is a spot-up shooter, knocking down 36% of his deep-ball tries last year. Bockler is arguably the best shooter on the roster and went 11/26 (42.3%) from 3 in eight games before going down with a season-ending injury. He scored 20 points in just 15 minutes against Texas Southern last year, going 6/7 from downtown.
Bottom Line: Throw last season out the window because the Gaels are back. Bennett has the experience, the continuity, and enough talent to make a run for 2nd place in the WCC and compete for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.
5. Loyola Marymount
Key Returners: Eli Scott, Dameane Douglas, Keli Leaupepe, Joe Quintana, Ivan Alipiev, Jalin Anderson, Quentin Jackson
Key Losses: Mattias Markusson, Kodye Pugh, Parker Dortch
Key Newcomers: Cam Shelton (Northern Arizona), Alex Merkviladze (Cal State Northridge), Kwane Marble (Wyoming), Gary Harris (Siena), Mayoum Mayoum (Redshirt)
Lineup:
Outlook: Stan Johnson’s first season at LMU was a resounding success. After coming to LA from the Marquette bench, he exceeded expectations by leading his Lions to a top 100 KenPom finish and 3rd place in the WCC. That top 100 finish is the program’s one and only in the KenPom era (dating back to 1997), and with a roster that returns nearly everyone of importance, including one of the best players in the WCC, plus the addition of some talented transfers, Johnson should have his squad back in that top 100 in 2021-22.
This is very likely LMU’s best squad since the late 80s when it made three straight NCAA Tournaments on the backs of Bo Kimble and Hank Gathers. Johnson has so much optionality on this roster it’s almost unfair – multiple guys can play multiple spots on the floor, and the rotation could go as much as 11 deep.
Everything on offense goes through Eli Scott, a 1st Team All-WCC selection last year and LMU’s 11th all-time leader in scoring, 6th all-time leader in rebounding, and 9th all-time leader in assists. Scott opted to use his 5th year and now looks to wreak more havoc on the WCC after ranking in the top five of the league in both scoring and rebounding in 2020-21.
LMU plays through Scott on the block, or frankly wherever he wants to catch it. Once he has the ball, Scott is adept at staying patient and making the right play, whether that be taking his man off the bounce or passing to an open teammate. Scott demands double teams on the block, and he’s one of the country’s very best at recognizing the situation and finding open shooters.
Scott’s physicality and skill extends past the post, as he’s also able to step out past the perimeter and bully his defender towards the cup.
LMU’s offense should be of a similar style this year, with possessions primarily sticking to the halfcourt, similar to how the Lions played under Mike Dunlap. Johnson added more of a ball screen element to the attack, but Scott is the bell cow leading the way.
Scott’s primary partner in the in the frontcourt will be Keli Leaupepe, another 6’6” bruiser who plays bigger than his height. The Australian Leaupepe is known for his flowing locks of hair and his strong, physical play. But don’t let the 250 lb. frame fool you – Leaupepe is an excellent outside shooter who has cashed in on 36% of his career 3P attempts. Like Scott, Leaupepe can play multiple spots on the floor.
Dameane Douglas is Johnson’s third amorphous weapon, a 6’7” wing who can play the 2, 3, or 4. Douglas earned HM All-WCC honors last year despite playing just four league games; an injury cut his season short to just 12 games after missing the entirety of the 2019-20 campaign. When healthy Douglas is a valuable asset on the court; he’s a strong driver and a scorching 46.4% career outside shooter (only 56 attempts – shoot more, DD!). Douglas’s size and length also make him a dangerous defensive piece on the perimeter.
Point guard play was somewhat of a weakness for LMU last season, or at the very least it was inconsistent. The Lions ranked dead last in the WCC in TO rate and 336th overall. Returners Joe Quintana and Jalin Anderson each took turns handling the rock at various points in the season with mixed results. Quintana is better off the ball with his ability to shoot (43% from deep last year) and his turnover rate was nearly double his assist rate in 2020-21. Anderson, a WCC All-Freshman team honoree, struggled with ball security as well and efficiency in general. Despite this inefficiency Anderson’s talent was clear, as he proved he could create his own shot off the bounce and be a pull-up assassin. Consistency and better decision making will be at the top of his to-do list heading into this season.
Johnson might go with an incumbent to start at the point, but if he doesn’t, he has a wonderful option coming in from the transfer portal via Northern Arizona. Cam Shelton was the Big Sky’s leading scorer last season, a 1st Team All-Conference selection, and the lone bright spot on a bad Lumberjack squad. Shelton was the highest used player in the Big Sky in 2020-21 and has all the tools to be successful in a better league.
He doesn’t turn the ball over and can play a facilitation role on a better squad, scoring as it comes naturally in the flow of the game versus constantly hunting his shot. Johnson may find it difficult to keep Shelton, a 5th year senior, off the floor.
Frontcourt reinforcements include Ivan Alipiev, a 6’8” senior out of Bulgaria, and CSUN transfer Alex Merkviladze. Alipiev is a stretch-4 who prefers to play out on the wing. He’ll look to improve on a paltry 28% 3P clip on over 200 career attempts. Merkviladze enjoyed a stellar freshman year with the Matadors, starting 17 games and ranking 3rd in the Big West in DR%. He has the size to defend postmen and can space the floor on offense (37.5% from deep last season).
LMU’s backcourt is deep this season with several players capable of providing meaningful minutes. Returner Quentin Jackson, a former Temple transfer, played only six games last year due to a season-ending foot injury. He’s mostly a shooter and is in danger of being relegated farther down the pine. Transfers Kwane Marble (Wyoming) and Gary Harris (Siena) should both get opportunities at big minutes this season. Marble started 13 games for the Cowboys, can handle the ball, and is an excellent defender, ranking in the top five in steal rate in the MWC each of the past two seasons. Harris is an explosive athlete who joined LMU mid-way through last season. He projects as a defensive menace and transition threat.
Redshirt freshman Mayoum Mayoum will also look to make a splash after sitting out last season. He’s another Aussie and came to Los Angeles very well-regarded. Mayoum is a capital F FREAK athlete who could develop into a productive two-way player.
None of Johnson’s incoming 3-star guards figure to see much run this season. David Elliott IV is a smooth guard who can shoot from anywhere. Lamaj Lewis is long and skilled brimming with potential. James Nobles is the highest rated recruit of the three.
While this preview has been slanted more towards the offensive side of the ball, LMU has often made its mark on the defensive end. The Lions are a pain in the ass to play against because of their physicality and strength, and they were the 2nd best defensive rebounding team in the nation last season. LMU wasn’t great at anything besides owning the glass, but the Lions figure to be better on the perimeter this season. Losing 7’3” Matthias Markusson hurts their top-line interior size, but Scott and Leaupepe have plenty of strength to keep the Lions competitive in the paint and on the boards.
Bottom Line: LMU has its best shot to compete for an at-large bid in a long, long time. The WCC is tough as nails this season at the top, but the Lions have as good as shot as any outside of Gonzaga and BYU to make a run. In addition to improved PG play and improved perimeter defense, LMU’s shooting should also improve. The Lions had to rely on rim attack (10th in %FGA near rim per Hoop-Math) and the free throw line (9th in the country in FT rate) far too often to score the rock last season. Additions like Shelton should help their scoring optionality.
Tier 4
6. Santa Clara
Key Returners: Josip Vrankic, Jalen Williams, Keshawn Justice, Giordan Williams, Jaden Bediako, Miguel Tomley
Key Losses: Guglielmo Caruso, DJ Mitchell, Christian Carlyle
Key Newcomers: PJ Pipes (Green Bay), Danilo Djuricic (Harvard)***, Parker Braun (Missouri), Max Besselink***
*** Not on roster as of publishing date
Lineup:
Outlook: COVID wasn’t kind to the bucking Broncos of Santa Clara. County restrictions forced them to relocate to Santa Cruz in December, resulting in the Broncos going about two and a half months between true home games. Overall SCU managed to play just 20 games (17 of which came in the regular season) and just nine WCC games. We were low on the Broncos heading into 2020-21, but while they did indeed underperform their KenPom preseason expectations, they were much more competitive than we predicted. Herb Sendek seems to have a floor in WCC play, generally keeping his squad right around the .500 mark. He enters his 6th year with SCU poised to push for a top four finish with arguably the best roster of his tenure.
Sendek flipped the switch on his tempo approach two seasons ago, taking his Broncos from one of the slowest paced teams in the country to one of the fastest:
This sudden switch likely started due to SCU having two legitimate scoring guards in Tahj Eaddy (future USC transfer) and Trey Wertz (future Notre Dame transfer), but Sendek opted to continue his team’s uptempo style last season as well. SCU looked to get out in transition with their bevy of big wings, but unfortunately ranked just 328th nationally in eFG% on the run (per Hoop-Math). Offense has generally been a struggle under Sendek, as SCU has cracked the top 150 in KenPom’s Adj. OE rankings just once in five years. When in the half-court, SCU plays through its forwards, particularly 1st Team All-WCC member Josip Vrankic. Everything on offense goes through him, whether he catches on the wing, on the block, at the elbow, or at the top of the key.
Vrankic was excellent season and should be one of the top players in the WCC in his 5th year. He ranked 4th in the league in usage last year, using a multitude of fakes and crab dribbles to get to the cup.
Shooting around Vrankic was non-existent, so SCU was forced to rely on basket attack and free throws to score the majority of its points. The Broncos ranked 31st in %FGA near the rim (per Hoop-Math) and 16th nationally in FT rate. While getting to the rim is a great goal for winning basketball, 3-point shooting needs to be at least decent. SCU will look to improve on a 29.9% team 3P clip from last season.
Improvement should be in the cards with simple correction to the mean plus the addition of a key transfer. Jalen Williams, an HM All-WCC honoree last season, stepped his game up to another level as a sophomore taking on the secondary scoring role. His 3P% dropped though from 35% as a FR to just 27% last year. With a solid shooting stroke, Williams should see his outside clip raise back over that 30% mark. Hitting more triples will also help open up the lane for his preferred method of scoring: slashing to the bucket.
Keshawn Justice is arguably the best shooter on the team, but he too saw his 3P% dramatically fall last season from a 2-year average of 38% to just 29% in 2020-21. Justice dealt with injuries last year so a fully healthy 2021-22 campaign should lead to improvement. Like Williams, Justice is a big wing at 6’7”, but he’s more of a lumbering, strong variety rather than an impressive athlete.
Returning reserves Giordan Williams and Miguel Tomley can each fill it up, though neither saw a major role in 2020-21. Williams shot over 40% from deep on a low volume while Tomley adds ball handling to the floor.
The greatest boon to SCU’s 3-point efforts this season will come via Green Bay transfer PJ Pipes, a 4-year mostly-starter with the Phoenix who has turned in back-to-back efficient seasons. Pipes has shot over 40% from deep the past two years on a combined 260 attempts; plus, he should also take over the primary PG role, something SCU also lacked last season. Pipes checks three boxes SCU desperately needed to cover this offseason: ball handling, scoring, and shooting.
SCU’s large perimeter (outside of Pipes) helps tremendously on the defensive end where its usually tough under Sendek. Poor defensive rebounding in WCC play hindered an otherwise solid year, as SCU used its height all over the roster to deter outside shooters and contest shots in traffic. Jalen Williams and Justice are both plus defenders, and point guard defense should be covered by Pipes’s quickness.
Interior defense left something to be desired last season, but SCU should have an upgrade this year at center with Jaden Bediako presumably taking over the starting spot. Guglielmo Caruso was by far the better offensive player, but Bediako was the much better defender in ’20-21. He is an excellent shot blocker and a force on the glass who can clear space in the paint. Harvard transfer Danilo Djuricic could also see time at the 5 though his natural position is more of a 4. Djuricic is a stretch forward with a career 35% 3P clip who can rebound and create delicious floor spacing if paired in the frontcourt with Vrankic.
Mizzou transfer Parker Braun could also see a large role after being an afterthought for the Tigers. Braun, whose brother plays a starring role for Kansas, is an athletic forward who can shoot and has the potential to be a good defender. He should be right in the thick of the frontcourt rotation.
Sendek adds five freshmen to compete with the long list of returners and solid transfers. It’s unclear how much any of them will play, but Finnish forward Max Besselink in particular looks to be a future star in the WCC. Besselink is Finland’s top prospect per 247 Sports and has a wealth of experience against high-level competition. He’s athletic, can shoot, and can play the 3 or 4.
Jacob Holt and Camaron Tongue will be future impact players in the frontcourt. Holt especially seems destined for major minutes in the near term. 3-star PG Brenton Knapper is small but quick and bouncy. Unranked SG Carlos Stewart is wired to score.
Bottom Line: The Broncos haven’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 1996 when a guy named Steve Nash was running point. Sendek has his best roster of his 6-year tenure, but, as always, beating Gonzaga, BYU, and Saint Mary’s will continue to be tall tasks. SCU will be competitive in the WCC this season but will likely need a miracle run in the conference tourney to crash the Field of 68.
7. Pacific
Key Returners: Pierre Cockrell, Jeremiah Bailey, Jordan Bell, Jalen Brown
Key Losses: Daniss Jenkins, Broc Finstuen, Jahbril Price-Noel, Nigel Shadd, Justin Moore
Key Newcomers: Luke Avdalovic (Northern Arizona), Nick Blake (UNLV), Alphonso Anderson (Utah State), Sam Freeman (Minnesota), Greg Outlaw (Central Connecticut State), Khaleb Wilson-Rouse (JUCO), Jaden Byers
Lineup:
Outlook: A hat tip and a farewell to Damon “Mighty Mouse” Stoudamire, who did an admirable job at the helm of Pacific the past five seasons. Stoudamire earned WCC Coach of the Year honors in 2020 and led his Tigers to two straight top 120 KenPom seasons, the program’s first since 2010. He built a team known for its physicality, toughness, and defensive tenacity, and now he takes his talents to the Boston Celtics’ bench.
In Stoudamire’s stead steps Leonard Perry, his top assistant the past five years. Perry brings a wealth of experience, previously serving under Larry Eustachy at Southern Miss and Colorado State, as well as on the Indiana Pacers’ sideline. He even has college head coaching experience; Perry was the head honcho at Idaho from 2001 – 2006, amassing a record of 48-97 and producing four competitive Big West squads and one awful WAC squad (1-15 in conference play).
Perry inherits a team returning three starters, not bad for a new coach. He also brings in six transfers, five of which come from the DI ranks. Since Perry was an integral part of Pacific’s recent physical teams, we should expect more of the same this season from the Tigers. Pacific had a bruising style last year, often winning games off garbage plays, out-scrapping the competition, and making every contest an all-out war. The Tigers ranked 2nd in the country in percentage of points scored from 2PFG (KenPom) and 29th in percentage of field goal attempts near the rim (Hoop-Math). Stoudamire ran a ball-screen heavy offense, ranking 6th overall in plays finished via pick-n-roll last season (Synergy).
Pacific’s glaring weakness the past few years has been shooting, but that should improve in 2021-22. In addition to returning guard Jalen Brown, who shot 40% from deep in eight games last season, Perry brings in Northern Arizona transfer Luke Avdalovic, UNLV transfer Nicquel “Nick” Blake, and JUCO transfer Khaleb Wilson-Rouse to add to the Tigers’ shooting effort. Avdalovic shot 44% last season and is the same for his 3-year career; he’ll be in the mix for starts with his respectable size in the backcourt and knockdown stroke. Blake, a former 3-star prospect out of IMG Academy, is a versatile guard who can handle the ball or play on the wing. He started nine games for the Rebels as a freshman and should be a source of scoring for Pacific. Wilson-Rouse averaged 21.8 PPG (5th in NJCAA) and shot 40% from 3 last season on his way to earning Honorable Mention All-American honors. Like Blake, Wilson-Rouse will be in the mix for starts and be relied upon to provide scoring and shooting.
Utah State transfer Alphonso Anderson adds even more shooting to the frontcourt, hitting a respectable 34% from deep last season. Anderson started four games for the Aggies and can be a high usage player while on the floor. Pacific can play through Anderson on the block or use him as a floor spacer at the 4-spot.
Anderson can play the 3, but more likely he’ll compete for starts with returning HM All-WCC forward Jeremiah Bailey. Bailey comes back for his 5th season promising to be a team leader on the floor. He took on a much larger role last season outside of Jahlil Tripp’s shadow and provided the Tigers with steady play on both ends of the floor. Bailey can score from all three levels on offense and last year ranked 5th in the WCC in steal rate.
Lining up next to Bailey / Anderson will be either 5th year forward Jordan Bell or Minnesota transfer Sam Freeman. Bell is a fierce rebounder, ranking 2nd in the WCC and 19th nationally in DR% last season, solid rim protector, and lumbering paint presence. Freeman seldom saw the floor in two years with the Gophers, but he brings much-needed size to the interior and shot-blocking potential.
Pierre Cockrell is the straw the stirs the Tiger drink offensively. While not a shooter (just 1/10 career from 3P range) Cockrell is one of the surest ball handlers in the league having posted an assist rate that more than doubles his TO rate for two straight seasons. Cockrell is the primary beneficiary of ball screens in Perry’s offense, and he’s excellent at using them to his advantage to penetrate, create, facilitate, or score.
Rounding out Perry’s roster is CCSU transfer Greg Outlaw and lone scholarship freshman Jaden Byers. Outlaw is a scrappy wing who should fit in nicely with the Pacific culture; he’s never been efficient offensively in college, but he’s an aggressive player and a hard worker. Byers is a quick, bouncy PG who should develop nicely into a starter down the road.
Similar to the offensive side of the ball, we should expect a consistent approach to the defensive end as we’ve seen at Pacific the last few years under Stoudamire. The Tigers pride themselves on being tough and outworking their opponents and have ranked 29th, 3rd, and 11th the past three season in defensive rebounding rate (also 8th in 2016-17). Pacific’s main goal on this end is to keep opponents away from the rim, a goal that can lead to effective defense but also open up clean outside looks. Perry seems likely to keep this style, as Eustachy’s teams were similar minded defensively.
Bottom Line: Pacific doesn’t have the talent to compete for a top four WCC finish, but you can bet your bottom dollar it’s going to be annoying to play against. Perry looks to exceed expectations and lead his Tigers to a run up the WCC standings, something his former boss has done the past two seasons.
8. Pepperdine
Key Returners: Jade’ Smith, Jan Zidek, Victor Ohia Obioha, Kendall Munson, Darryl Polk Jr., Majok Deng
Key Losses: Colbey Ross, Kessler Edwards, Sedrick Altman, Kene Chukwuka, Andre Ball
Key Newcomers: Keith Fisher III (Illinois State), Braun Hartfield (San Diego), Maxwell Lewis, Mike Mitchell Jr., Houston Mallette, Jalen Pitre***, Sekou Gassama
*** Not on roster as of publishing date
Lineup:
Outlook: Lorenzo Romar enters his 4th year of his second stint at the helm of Pepperdine fresh off a CBI championship. His Waves have improved each season under his tutelage but 2021-22 could be a challenge. Colbey Ross, the program’s all-time leader in scoring and assists, departs, as does his right-hand man Kessler Edwards, a fellow 17+ PPG scorer last season. With only role players returning, Romar will need to flex his development and coaching skills or pray one of his talented transfers can shoulder the load.
Those who watched Ross play knows the seismic effect his loss will have on the Pepperdine program. He was the offensive catalyst, an excellent creator, passer, and scorer who led the Waves to two straight top 100 Adj. OE finishes in KenPom. Romar likely keeps the pedal to the metal on offense even without Ross – he’ll hope to create points in transition using his stable of quick, athletic guards. Pepperdine was the nation’s 20th fastest offense last year per KenPom, and while that might fall back a tad, should once again be among the fastest nationally in 2021-22.
To make matters worse for Pepperdine, the regression monster is about to rear its ugly head. The Waves have ranked in the top 25 nationally in FT% each of the past three seasons, but its two most prolific stripe shooters were Ross (84%) and Edwards (89%). Defensively, Pepperdine allowed the 7th lowest 3P% in the country (28.8%) and the lowest in WCC play (27.7%) last year. There are programs around the country who are consistently good in this metric due to defensive scheme, but considering just one year prior the Waves ranked 345th in the same stat, allowing opponents to shoot 38.1% from deep, we should expect plenty more rain in Malibu this season. Defense in general has been an issue under Romar; last year Pepperdine ranked just 6th in the WCC in Adj. DE (KenPom) and the two years prior hovered around the 200 mark nationally. The roster has enough length to be tough on the perimeter, but concerns linger in the interior where the Waves have been particularly weak.
Two of Pepperdine’s key returners reside in that interior, 6’9” junior Jan Zidek and 6’9” senior Victor Ohia Obioha. Each big brings something different to the table: Zidek is an excellent offensive player who can stretch the defense, while Ohia Obioha is the better rebounder and defender.
Small sample-size results were poor when the pair shared the floor last season, so expect one to start and the other to assume a backup role. Playing Zidek at the 5 allows Pepperdine to go 5-out offensively, and he’s one of the better pick-n-pop threats in the WCC.
However, Zidek cannot guard his shadow, and he actively hurt Pepperdine last year defensively. Ohia Obioha and his giant wingspan can at least protect the rim a bit and did show some offensive potential in the CBI last year when he averaged 11.0 PPG and 5.7 RPG.
Sophomore forward Kendall Munson could play a bigger role this season in the frontcourt; he brings good size to the table and has a decent pedigree as a former top 150 recruit (per Rivals). Offensively he’s paint-bound but more skilled than Ohia Obioha. The real impact player, though, aside from the two key returners will be Illinois State transfer Keith Fisher III. Romar likely slots Fisher into the starting five after the latter opted out last season. Fisher was one of ISU’s best players in 2019-20 and prior to that averaged 10.4 PPG and 6.3 RPG at San Jose State. He’s an active player on both ends of the floor, can play the 4 or 5, and can step out to a hit a triple or take his man into the post.
Freshman bigs Jalen Pitre (3-star), Sekou Gassama (3-star), and Carson Basham (unranked) likely won’t see a ton of time this season. Pitre has the best chance – he hails from the same HS as Pepperdine teammate Darryl Polk Jr. and UCLA 5-star Peyton Watson. He can play out on the wing and brings versatility to the fold. Gassama, a DeSmet HS graduate out of St. Louis, is raw and skinny but has clear potential as a shot blocker.
Romar’s biggest get on the recruiting path is 6’7” wing Maxwell Lewis, a 4-star top 150 recruit who considered skipping college altogether and entering the Draft. Lewis is super long and super athletic. He can shoot the 3 as easily as drive by a defender for a dunk. It wouldn’t shock me to see Lewis in the starting five all year long and win the league’s NCOY award.
Replacing Ross at the point will be the greatest challenge for the Waves this season, and it goes without saying that no one or even combination of players can truly compensate for his loss. Polk Jr. is the likely starter, a super quick 5’9” combo guard who ended 2020-21 with a bang, scoring 19 PTS in the CBI championship. Polk is a good on-ball defender and has improved his outside shot – the question will be whether he can handle the full-time load at the point. 3-star freshman Mike Mitchell Jr. is the only other true point guard on the roster. He brings more size to the position at 6’2” and is a solid shooter and crafty with the ball. While not overly quick or athletic, Mitchell is a heady player who could develop quickly into a reliable ball handler.
Wing play should be a strength for Pepperdine this season with the return of redshirt senior Jade’ Smith and the addition of San Diego transfer Braun Hartfield. Smith is the leading returning scorer in the backcourt and was a key cog to the Wave machine after coming back from a season-ending injury in 2019-20. Offensively Smith is mostly a slasher, and he can handle the ball as de facto point guard. Defensively Smith is a tough matchup for opposing wings with his length and athleticism.
Hartfield was an Honorable Mention All-WCC honoree back in 2019-20, the last year he played college basketball. He led the Toreros in scoring after coming over from Youngstown State where he led the Horizon League in steals as a sophomore. Hartfield will likely lead Pepperdine in scoring this season and be its go-to player; he’s more of a volume shooter, but he can score from anywhere on the floor. Expect 15+ PPG from him this season in Romar’s uptempo system.
A pair of 6’5” youngsters, sophomore Majok Deng and 3-star freshman Houston Mallette will serve as reserves on the wing. Deng started all three CBI contests at the end of last season and has good shooting ability to pair with his length. Mallette can play on or off the ball and brings more shooting to the fold.
Bottom Line: Pepperdine is due to decline (sick rhyme) this season with the loss of Ross and Edwards. Romar simply doesn’t have enough playmaking or scoring on his roster to offset a defense that should once again be “just OK”. But hey, at least the Waves have that CBI championship hardware.
9. San Diego
Key Returners: Joey Calcaterra, Vladimir Pinchuk, Josh Parrish, Yavuz Gultekin
Key Losses: Yauhen Massalski, Frankie Hughes, Jared Rodriguez, Marion Humphrey, Finn Sullivan, Ben Pyle
Key Newcomers: Jase Townsend (Denver), Bryce Monroe (Sam Houston State), Marcellus Earlington (St. John’s), Terrell Brown (Pittsburgh), TJ Berger (Georgetown), Wayne McKinney II
Lineup:
Outlook: San Diego never quite got off the ground last season, as COVID cancellations limited the Toreros to only nine WCC games and 14 games overall. Sam Scholl’s squad wasn’t expected to be very good, but the pauses and lack of practice made matters worse. Scholl inherited a very good team in 2018-19 and led his Toreros to a 21-win season and a top 100 KenPom finish (the program’s first since 2003). But the last two years have been tough on Scholl – USD is just 4-21 in WCC play over that span, and this season doesn’t look any easier. The Toreros have a couple key pieces returning, but they’ll need major help from the transfer portal to crack the upper half of the WCC standings.
Scholl brings back three starters who should form a solid base to USD’s lofty aspirations at WCC competitiveness. Joey Calcaterra is the headliner, the only Torero to earn All-WCC honors last season (honorable mention). Calcaterra is an excellent shooter with gorgeous form who can run the offense when needed. While he isn’t limited to catch-and-shoot, USD needs someone else to be the primary creator and offensive catalyst.
Josh Parrish will play a role in that effort, as he suits up for a sixth collegiate season. Parrish began his career at TCU before playing for Rice for a couple years. He’s a unique player in that he can play four different positions on the floor; Parrish is strong enough to bang inside, skilled enough to run point, and quick enough to beat his man off the dribble. This makes him a valuable asset on the defensive end as well, as he can mark just about anyone outside of the paint-bound trees. The only weakness in Parrish’s game is his outside shooting – he’s attempted just eight 3s over the past two years and doesn’t seem to have the appetite to take many more.
Vladimir Pinchuk started the final nine games of last season. The former New Mexico Lobo is a decent rebounder but lacks in the rim protection department. That’s where Pitt transfer Terrell Brown comes in, a 6’10” on-and-off ACC starter looking for a significant jump in minutes in San Diego. Brown ranked in the top three in the ACC in block rate his first three seasons, and likely would have last year had he qualified from a minutes perspective. His rebounding and shot-blocking presence should give him the edge over Pinchuk for starts, though the latter will certainly be a key cog in the rotation.
Scholl’s only other returner is Yavuz Gultekin, a versatile forward and former Texas A&M Aggie, who played in seven games last season. Gultekin can space the floor but will have stiff competition this season for playing time.
Offense needs to improve for USD to make a run this season. Scholl shifted his style to more of an uptempo one two years ago but it’s yet to yield good results. Shot quality was a major problem last season, as the Toreros took far too many pull-up / mid-range jumpers and far too few 3s and near-rim shots. The halfcourt sets look coherent – Scholl likes to invert his big men and run a slew of Princeton-offense-esque cuts, but without consistent shooting his team was almost entirely reliant on rim attack in 2020-21.
The additions of guards Jase Townsend (Denver), Bryce Monroe (Sam Houston State), and TJ Berger (Georgetown) should help the offensive cause this season. Townsend has earned a couple All-Summit League honors during his career and last year ranked 3rd in the conference in scoring.
On Denver, Townsend had to do everything, but he still posted impressive efficiency numbers, taking care of the ball and hitting a high percentage of his shots. At USD he may be asked to run point, something he did a little less of last season due to Denver’s severe need of his scoring from the wing. At the very least, his 35% career 3P% on over 350 attempts should come in handy.
Monroe will be in the mix for PG starts as well, but he thrived in a 6th man role for the Bearkats last season, taking home the Southland’s Freshman of the Year hardware. Monroe is a high usage spark plus who can shoot from the outside or use his dynamic quickness to blaze into the teeth of the defense.
Berger is a sharpshooter who was seldom used at Georgetown. He shot 6/13 from downtown last year and should have a much bigger role with the Toreros. Freshman CG Wayne McKinney II could also see time; he’s a super athletic ball handler with college-ready strength.
St. John’s transfer Marcellus Earlington should fall into a Josh Parrish role, where he’ll be asked to play and guard multiple positions. Earlington is a much better shooter than Parrish, knocking down 40% of his longball tries last year. Like Parrish, Earlington is a versatile defender who should make a significant impact on the rotation.
Freshmen Alijah Kuehl, a stretch center with good touch, and Muon Reath, a well-regarded Canadian wing who dunks everything and projects as a plus defender, round out the USD roster.
USD has been respectable on the defensive end under Scholl and should be again in 2021-22. Brown’s presence is massive, as the departed Yauhen Massalski was the only rim protector on last year’s roster. He’ll help shore up an interior that was killed in the post and obliterated at the rim. The Toreros will likely continue their tendency to speed opponents up on this end and will be hyper-focused on running shooters off the 3-point arc, as they’ve done with great success for five straight seasons.
Bottom Line: With the strength of the top half of the WCC it seems nearly impossible for the Toreros to finish any higher than 6th (and even that looks to be a stretch). Scholl’s squad will be feisty and compete and on the defensive end, but ultimately talent will win out and USD will fall near the bottom of the league.
Tier 5
10. Portland
Key Returners: None
Key Losses: Ahmed Ali, Eddie Davis, Latrell Jones, Isiah Dasher, Michael Henn, Chase Adams, Clythus Griffith, Takiula Fahrensohn, Hayden Curtiss, Zac Triplett, Quincy Ferebee
Key Newcomers: Mike Meadows (Eastern Washington), Chris Austin (Fordham), Tyler Robertson (Eastern Washington), Moses Wood (UNLV), Kristian Sjolund (UTEP), Jack Perry (Eastern Washington), Matheus Silveira (JUCO)
Lineup:
Outlook: Portland waived goodbye to Terry Porter in early February prior to the end of the 2020-21 season. Porter lasted nearly five seasons and amassed a record of 43-103 (7-70). The Pilots were 0-11 in WCC play last year and are 1-42 the last three years, which is one of the most ridiculous stats I have ever seen. Zero scholarship players return, so UP is looking to start from scratch; the program hasn’t been to the Dance since 1996.
In steps Shantay Legans, the former Eastern Washington head coach who led his Eagles to the NCAA Tournament last season and a near-upset of Kansas. Legans was hired within 48 hours of his team’s loss in the Big Dance, indicating Portland knew the man it wanted to lead its program from the depths of Hell. Legans inherits a tough situation – Portland is not a good basketball program and the Pilots return nothing from last season. Some were surprised to see him take this position given his youth (39 years old) and status as a rising star among college coaches. But Legans is excited about the gig, and he brings a ton of energy and optimism to his new post. We shouldn’t expect Portland to dig itself out of the WCC basement this season, but Legans seems like a terrific hire, and he literally cannot do any worse than Porter.
In addition to the two walk-ons that decided to stay in Portland, Legans adds six DI transfers, a JUCO transfer, and eight freshmen. Three of those transfers come from EWU and are familiar with Legans’s style. Mike Meadows, Jack Perry, and Tyler Robertson should play major minutes for Portland this season, and each is likely to start several games. Meadows, a combo guard, started the final 15 games last year for EWU and has the inside track to the starting PG spot. He shot 37% from deep in 2020-21 and is excellent creating off ball screens.
Perry and Robertson are set to destroy YMCA leagues in a few years but for now they’ll provide sharpshooting to a program that hasn’t shot over 35% from 3 since 2018. Robertson was the Big Sky’s Sixth Man of the Year and knocked down 37.5% of his 3PA attempts last year. He’s also a gifted passer who can facilitate from the wing. Perry was a 4-year on-and-off starter for the Eagles and acts as an extension of Legans on the court. He’ll play point and off the ball and look to continue his hot outside shooting (52.4% from 3 last year, 41.6% career).
Shooting is vital in Legans’s offense which likes to run and gun when given the chance. It’s possible Legans pumps the breaks slightly this year given the relative lack of talent after running at a breakneck pace at EWU. Legans is great at adapting his style to his roster, playing primarily through the post last season with Tanner Groves and through his guards in previous seasons at EWU.
The pick-n-roll / pick-n-pop is central to Legans’s half-court attack, and he’ll have a couple solid pop options in transfers Moses Wood (UNLV) and Kristian Sjolund (UTEP). Wood began his career at Tulane prior to arriving at UNLV. He spaces the floor on offense and provides shot-blocking on the defensive end (5th in the MWC in block rate in ’20-21). Because of Wood’s rim protecting ability, Legans can play him at the 5 giving Portland a dangerous 5-out lineup featuring four deadeye outside shooters. Sjolund will be one of those shooters, a former Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket who shot over 50% from deep last year. For his career Sjolund, who stands 6’8”, has shot 98 3s to just 23 2s.
When Legans wants a little more girth in the middle, JUCO transfer Matheus Silveira will be his man. Silveira averaged 7.2 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and 1.2 BPG for his JUCO last season and played two injury-plagued seasons prior to that at Austin Peay. He brings rim protection and rebounding to the fold.
Fordham transfer Chris Austin will likely start this season as well. He was one of Fordham’s best offensive players last year (not saying much) and brings shooting, scoring, and driving ability to the wing. Austin is good in the open floor in transition, perfect for Legans’s system, and adds more athleticism / strength than the EWU transfers offer.
Of the five freshmen on scholarship, wings Skylar Wilson, Nikola Milosevic, and Matija Svetozarevic appear to have the ability to make an immediate impact on the rotation. Wilson is a 6’7” athletic wing who can handle the ball and shoot from the outside. Milosevic is a combo guard out of Montenegro, a good athlete who has a smooth game and the ability to run the point. Both Wilson and Milosevic should also bring immediate impacts to the defensive end as well. Svetozarevic, a Serbian wing, had interest from higher level programs; he adds size to what already is a good-sized UP perimeter and positional versatility.
Vasilije Vucinic will be in the frontcourt rotation, as he’s the only other true big outside of Silveira. Vucinic was teammates of Milosevic’s in Montenegro. Yaru Harvey, a 6’3” point guard hailing from the same prep school as Wilson, will contribute on both ends of the floor once he finds the path to playing time in a crowded backcourt.
Defensively, expect Legans to throw in some of his 1-3-1 zone, which can extend past the timeline and pressure opposing ball handlers. His Eagles opted to get back on defense and prevent transition instead of crashing the o-glass, and considering the make-up of this UP roster, should be consistent in Portland. Legans has always had very good defensive rebounding teams, usually a sign of good coaching and a great aid to playing winning basketball.
Bottom Line: Portland likely finishes last in the WCC this season, as it has for three straight years. But, the UP program is on the up and up with the hiring of Legans – he is one of the brightest young coaching minds in college basketball and should have his Pilots playing competitive ball late this year and over the next couple seasons to come.