- Ky McKeon
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Jerrick Harding, Sr., Weber State
Coach of the Year: Randy Rahe, Weber State
Newcomer of the Year: Jakolby Long, R Jr., Southern Utah
Freshman of the Year: Tim Fuller, R Fr., Weber State
Team Previews
Tier 1
1. Weber State
Key Returners: Jerrick Harding, Cody John, Israel Barnes, Caleb Nero, Dima Zdor, Michal Kozak, Donatas Kupsas
Key Losses: Brekkott Chapman, Zach Braxton, Ricky Nelson
Key Newcomers: Boubacar Diakite (JUCO), Tim Fuller (Redshirt), Austin Galuppo, Judah Jordan, KJ Cunningham
Lineup:
*** Editor’s Note: Pitt transfer Khameron Davis was granted a waiver on 10/22 to be immediately eligible. This further solidifies Weber’s outlook as the top team in the Big Sky heading into the season. ***
Outlook: Weber State has been a Big Sky powerhouse under Randy Rahe the past 13 seasons. In that time span, Rahe has led the Wildcats to three NCAA Tournaments and racked up a conference record of 165-63 (.723). Last year, however, was a disappointment for the Purple Cats, notching “only” an 11-9 league mark and tying for 4th in the Big Sky standings. Rated 123rd heading into the year by KenPom, the Cats finished a paltry 224th, only the second time in Rahe’s tenure the program has finished outside of the top 200. With a senior-led backcourt returning in 2019-20, including likely Big Sky Player of the Year Jerrick Harding, Weber State looks certain for a bounceback and the favorites to capture the conference crown.
The 2018-19 Cats were Rahe’s fastest squad in his 13-year tenure, ranking 37th in tempo nationally and leading the Big Sky. Offense was the main driver to this tempo mark, as Weber had the 18th quickest average possession length in the land. The Cats ranked 12th per Synergy in percentage of plays finished in transition and 24th per Hoop-Math in percentage of initial FGA in transition. By all indications, Rahe fully intends to repeat this uptempo style in 2019-20, meaning Weber should be one of the more exciting teams to watch in mid-majordom this season. When in the halfcourt, Weber is primarily a pick-n-pop or pick-n-roll team with either Harding or fellow guard Cody John handling the rock. Rahe almost always has good outside shooting teams and this year’s squad should see plenty of looks with the playmaking ability of its guards.
Harding is a two-time 1st Team All-Big Sky selection and a two-time top five finisher in usage in conference play. The 6’1” guard can flat out score from anywhere on the floor, and he does it efficiently, turning in a scorching conference split of .551 / .368 / .893 (2P / 3P / FT) last season. Whether in iso or off ball screens, Harding wreaks havoc on opposing defenders and demands double teams when barreling to the hoop. He’ll likely lead the conference in scoring this season and should hold the school’s all-time scoring mark when all is said and done.
Cody John, an Honorable Mention All-Big Sky honoree last season, is Harding’s right-hand-man in the backcourt. Like Harding, John turned in an impressive conference shooting clip of .541 / .365 / .787 last season and will give Weber the best one-two guard punch in the league this year. John benefits from Harding’s penetration ability – 80% of his made threes were assisted last season – but the senior guard can also create his own shot and opportunities for others.
One of the many reasons to like Weber this year is its unique combination of senior leadership / experience and up-and-coming youth. Rahe has four key players this year making the juicy freshman-to-sophomore leap and another entering his junior season. Israel Barnes and Caleb Nero are the two sophomores on the perimeter, each capable of earning starter’s minutes in 2019-20. Barnes knocked down 39% of his Big Sky three-point attempts last year and is due for a step-up in usage without the production left behind by Brekkott Chapman. Nero is a capable scorer from all three levels of the floor. The sophomore duo will have PT competition from three freshmen in wing Austin Galuppo and combo guards Judah Jordan and KJ Cunningham. Galuppo is the one to watch of this group, a borderline 3-star recruit who shoots lights-out from distance and finishes above the rim. Jordan is a fairly highly regarded recruit from the DMV, a hard-nosed guard who can score and make plays for others. He’ll see plenty of opportunity when Harding and John depart in 2020-21. Cunningham, a DI-ready guard out of Texas, will provide the Cats with even more backcourt depth.
Rahe’s returning frontcourt pieces have much to live up to with both Chapman and Zach Braxton’s graduations. Sophomore big man Dima Zdor appears to be the “next man up” at the center spot, proving to be a solid shot blocker and rebounder during his floor time last year. Stretchy 4-men Michal Kozak and Donatas Kupsas will each fight for starts alongside Zdor – Kozak likely has an edge here with his superior interior finishing ability.
Look for both Tim Fuller, a redshirt freshman, and Babacour Diakite to push (and likely overtake) Kozak and Kupsas for minutes. Fuller signed with Weber in 2015 and graduated HS in 2016, electing to complete an LDS mission trip before officially starting his collegiate basketball career. His age and experience will be invaluable to Weber’s young frontcourt and word is he’s been strong in practice during his redshirt year and this past offseason. Diakite, a 4-star recruit coming out of HS, signed with St. John’s initially and redshirted in 2017-18. Last season, Diakite enjoyed a successful year in the JUCO ranks before tearing his ACL in February. The athletic forward should be ready for the start of 2019-20 and figures to be a weapon defensively and in Rahe’s pick-n-pop attack.
Rahe usually has strong defenses at Weber, defenses that hinge on one philosophy: TAKE AWAY THE THREE-BALL. Since 2012-13, Weber has ranked 1st, 1st, 14th, 7th, 1st, 18th, and 17th in the country in 3PA rate. This heavy perimeter pressure is designed to limit outside looks and force ball handlers into the teeth of the defense where (usually) a capable shot blocker awaits. Zdor will have this role this season, one that he should be able to fill effectively. Rahe has a deep and athletic backcourt to chase opponents off the three-point line this season; expect the Cats to be a top three defense in the Big Sky once again.
Bottom Line: The losses of Chapman and Braxton are significant, but Weber should be in good hands with Harding and John leading the way. Rahe is deep at nearly every position and has the best returning scorer in the conference. Weber is not the unanimous favorite in the Big Sky as I expected them to be, according to preseason media polls, but rest assured, this team is capable of taking the league title by more than 2 games.
2. Montana
Key Returners: Sayeed Pridgett, Kendal Manuel, Timmy Falls, Mack Anderson
Key Losses: Ahmaad Rorie, Michael Oguine, Jamar Akoh, Donaven Dorsey, Bobby Moorehead
Key Newcomers: Jared Samuelson (NAIA), Yagizhan Selcuk (Towson), Eddy Egun (Redshirt), Josh Vazquez, Derrick Carter-Hollinger, Kyle Owens
Lineup:
Outlook: The Griz have been the Big Sky NCAA Tourney reps each of the past two seasons, vanquishing conference foes to the tune of a 32-6 record in that timespan. Montana is a Big Sky powerhouse and is consistently at or near the top of the league, but this year poses a challenge with the loss of two all-conference players and three more partial starters. Travis DeCuire’s 2018-19 squad ranked 6th nationally in experience and 19th in minutes continuity, so Montana likely takes a step back in 2019-20 as it reloads with newcomers and returning guys take on larger roles. Regardless of the turnover, the Griz should still contend for another Big Sky title and third straight Tourney auto-bid.
Montana had the best offense in the Big Sky last season due to having multiple playmakers on the floor with the ability to create their own shot or open looks for others. The three-headed monster of Sayeed Pridgett, Michael Oguine, and Ahmaad Rorie was virtually unstoppable in league play and paced the Griz’s 9th-best national eFG%. DeCuire’s multiple weapons were able to beat opponents in a multitude of ways from all three levels of the floor, on the run, and in the halfcourt. With Rorie and Oguine graduating this offseason, offensive burden falls squarely on the shoulders of Pridgett, Montana’s highest used player in 2018-19 and a 1st Team All-Big Sky honoree.
Pridgett does everything for the Griz on offense, dishing, driving, and shooting his team to victory on a nightly basis. The senior ranked 2nd in the league in eFG% in 2018-19 and has a knack for getting to the rim with ease. This year he’ll be one of the favorites to capture the Big Sky POY hardware.
Kendal Manuel, a former Oregon State Beaver and last season’s conference Sixth Man of the Year, will look to step up in 2019-20 as Montana’s second scorer behind Pridgett. Manuel ranked 4th in the Big Sky in 3P% last year and 1st in FT%; he’s a knockdown shooter who should shed his bench role for a starting spot in his final collegiate season. Junior guard Timmy Falls should see a large chunk of the point duties after racking up steals last year and providing steady facilitation off the pine. A career 38.1% 3P shooter, Falls can also serve as an off-the-ball spot-up threat. His biggest competition for starting honors will be freshman Josh Vazquez, a quick, true PG with a craft game. Vazquez will be a player to watch over the next four years in the Big Sky – he has all-conference potential down the road. Redshirt freshman Eddy Egun, a big 6’4” guard, should also carve out a role in his first year of action.
Montana’s frontcourt will look different this season with the departures of Bobby Moorehead and Donaven Dorsey. The pair stepped into the de facto 5 spot when All-League center Jamar Akoh went down with injury. Though undersized, the Griz didn’t have any trouble on the boards against other Big Sky squads, though they did allow a higher-than-average amount of attempts near the rim. Sophomore Mack Anderson likely has the inside track to starting in the early going; he’s a 6’9” forward who was productive when he saw the floor as a freshman. NAIA transfer Jared Samuelson will see plenty of run at the 4, as will Towson transfer Yagizhan Selcuk once he’s eligible in the second semester. Samuelson began his career with the Griz back in 2016-17, serving as a paint-focused power forward. In the NAIA ranks, Samuelson developed a deadly outside shot and earned a spot on the All-American 3rd Team last year. Freshmen Derrick Carter-Hollinger and Kyle Owens will also see time as small-ball 4s. Carter-Hollinger has a great case to earn starts this season with his defensive and rebounding ability. Despite standing just 6’5”, DCH is a beast and has a college-ready body. Owens is more of a wing and will bring versatility on the defensive end with his ability to guard multiple positions.
The Griz have been stout defensively under DeCuire the past two seasons, ranking 2nd in the league in adjusted defensive efficiency last year and 1st in 2017-18. They focus on limiting three-point looks and forcing long possessions, ranking 94th in 3PA rate and 313th in APL last year. DeCuire dialed back the press last year, but the Griz will still show some fullcourt looks in 2019-20. The one Achilles Heel under DeCuire has been foul trouble – the Griz allow very high FT rates, which can cause issues with an already thin frontcourt. Anderson was one of the biggest culprits of this last season, committing 9.3 fouls per 40 minutes.
Bottom Line: Montana has a lot of new faces and loses a ton of senior leadership, but DeCuire should still have his squad near the top of the Big Sky standings in 2019-20. Pridgett is arguably the best player in the conference and DeCuire’s incoming class appears capable of developing into the next great group of Griz.
3. Eastern Washington
Key Returners: Jacob Davison, Mason Peatling, Tyler Kidd, Kim Aiken Jr., Jack Perry, Austin Fadal, Tanner Groves, Elijah Jackson
Key Losses: Jesse Hunt, Luka Vulikic, Cody Benzel, Ty Gibson
Key Newcomers: Jacob Groves, Tyler Robertson, Steele Venters, Abdullahi Mohamed, Adriel Linares, Ellis Magnuson
Lineup:
Outlook: Eastern Washington has been a staple atop the Big Sky conference for the past five years, finishing in the top three four of those seasons and making the Big Dance in 2015. Shantay Legans has kept the momentum going at EWU started by Jim Hayford, the current Seattle coach, leading the Eagles to a 25-13 Big Sky record in two years. After a brutal non-conference start last year in which EWU limped to a 1-9 mark, the Eagles finished 15-9, appearing to hit their stride despite a plethora of injuries across the roster. One of Legans’s best players, Jesse Hunt, is gone from a year ago, but he brings back two all-conference players to help contend for a Big Sky title and make another run to the NCAA Tournament.
The three-ball has reigned supreme in Cheney for the past decade. EWU squads under both Hayford and Legans have been known for their high 3PA rate and having multiple shooters on the floor at one time. The Eagles’ prolific shooting was a key part of their 5th best Big Sky offense and should once again be a focal point in 2019-20. In addition to the shooters Legans brings back, three newcomers arrive in Cheney this season with sniper reputations. Jacob Groves, Tyler Robertson, and Steele Venters will look to keep the sharpshooting notoriety alive and well for the next four years. All three wings are tall (6’6”, 6’7”, and 6’7”, respectively) and skinny with smooth strokes. Robertson, an Australia native, is probably the most college-ready of the three, but Venters holds potential as a two-way wing and has more dribble-drive capabilities to his game to complement his shooting.
Of course, the Eagles weren’t solely reliant on shooting last season. The departed Hunt and senior Mason Peatling were skilled post players on the block and destroyed opponents on rolls out of the pick-n-roll. Peatling is EWU’s most important player this year, a 2nd Team All-Big Sky member in 2018-19, and the offense will play through him. His absence during the non-conference slate was a major reason EWU fared so poorly, and the Eagles will benefit tremendously from a fully healthy 2019-20. Peatling ranked 2nd in the Big Sky in OR% and 3rd in 3FG% – despite being an undersized 5, he had no issue matching up with bigger centers and out-rebounding his competition. Like all proper Eagles, Peatling can also shoot the long-ball, hitting 42.9% of his 28 attempts last season.
Jacob Davison, a junior wing, will be Peatling’s right-hand man this season. Davison was a 3rd Team All-Conference selection in 2018-19 and one of the higher used players in the Big Sky. His ability to assume a “point forward” role and score from all three levels of the floor is key to EWU’s offensive versatility. Defensively, Davison was a bit of a liability last season, so he’ll need to fine tune this part of his game to be a complete player this season – despite missing the last 10 games of the year, the Eagles went 7-3, an interesting result when one of your perceived best players is out of the lineup.
Fighting for starting spots this year alongside Peatling and Davison will be senior Tyler Kidd, junior Jack Perry, and sophomore Kim Aiken Jr. Kidd runs point for the Eagles and scorched the net from outside last season with a 41.5% clip. His playing time skyrocketed during the second half of the season, proving to be a consistent facilitator and supporting scorer. Perry will resume his spot-up shooter role – last season the 6’2” guard attempted 100 threes to just 25 twos. Aiken looks to build on a successful freshman campaign in which he ranked 7th in the league in both OR% and DR% and 5th in block rate. He’ll function as EWU’s de facto 4-man in Legans’s four-guard lineup and be yet another source of outside shooting. Fellow returners Austin Fadal and Elijah Jackson will add wing depth and 6’9” sophomore Tanner Groves, brother of Jacob, will provide depth up front and contribute on the glass and with rim protection.
Legans’s three other newcomers figure to compete for playing time right away, especially given the coach’s tendency to play a large rotation. Frontcourt additions Abdullahi Mohamed and Adriel “Bonez” Linares each bring important skills to the table. Mohamed is skilled in the post and projects as a plus defender down the road. Bonez (an apt nickname when looking at his frame) has an immense 7’1” wingspan and can handle the ball in the open floor. Perhaps the best newcomer of them all, however, is freshman Ellis Magnuson, a 6’2” point guard who weighs more than most of Legans’s frontcourt recruits. Magnuson is a true point guard and Legans has already praised him as the best passer he’s ever seen coming out of high school. Kidd may hold the starting PG reins, but Magnuson could absolutely carve out a role alongside him in the starting five as the season progresses.
The Eagles have historically been a below average-to-poor defensive squad, but ranked 4th in the Big Sky in 2018-19, per KenPom. Legans’s two EWU squads have ranked among the national elite in defensive rebounding rate, and he significantly cut down on the amount of zone he played in 2018-19. The Eagles have no world beaters on this end, but they are capable of playing good team defense and should continue to keep opponents off the glass at a high rate.
Bottom Line: EWU is on the shortlist of teams who can capture a Big Sky title in 2018-19. Offense will be there with Peatling and Davison leading the charge; if the defense can be consistent, expect to see the Eagles near the top of the conference standings at the end of the year.
4. Northern Colorado
Key Returners: Jonah Radebaugh, Bodie Hume, Trent Harris, Sam Masten, Kai Edwards, Cole Bergan, Kur Jockuch
Key Losses: Jordan Davis, Jalen Sanders, Matej Drgon
Key Newcomers: Roy Grigsby (Redshirt), Tre’Shon Smoots (Redshirt), Rodrick McCobb (JUCO), Malcolm Little, Cole Nicholson
Lineup:
Outlook: Northern Colorado followed up its breakout 2017-18 season by finishing with its best ever Big Sky conference record (15-5) and another 20+ win year. An odd blowout loss to Southern Utah in the Big Sky conference tournament derailed an otherwise stellar season, and it appears Jeff Linder has started building this program into a league power. After taking over a losing UNC program in 2016-17 from BJ Hill, Linder has led the Bears to a 47-23 (26-12) mark over the past two seasons, capping off 2018-19 with a Big Sky Coach of the Year award. UNC loses all-time school great Jordan Davis but still has enough talent and experience to challenge for the conference crown in 2019-20.
Davis carried the Bears on offense last season – the entire UNC attack revolved around the senior point guard, who earned Big Sky Player of the Year honors after leading the conference in scoring at 23.5 PPG. Linder’s offense emphasized action for Davis, whether via the pick-n-roll or isolation sets, and three other guards lined up on the perimeter waiting for a drive-and-kick look. The Bears ranked 21st in the country last season in frequency of plays ended in isolation and 13th in spot-ups, both largely driven by the creation of Davis. Replacing the 6th highest-used player in the nation will not be easy, especially given Davis played the most important position on the floor. Linder likely maintains the slower pace he implemented in 2018-19 (slowest in the Big Sky) after ranking 24th in the nation in tempo in 2017-18. Given the loss of production, UNC will look to hang its hat and win ball games on the defensive side of the ball this year.
Linder’s defenses the past two seasons have been excellent, ranking 4th in the Big Sky in 2017-18 and 1st last season in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom. His squad plays an extended, aggressive man-to-man that keys on preventing three-point looks. UNC ranked #1 in the country in defensive 3PA rate two years ago and 8th last season – it is the driving principle of Linder’s defense. Linder recruits to this style, looking to find athletic guards who can switch onto multiple positions on the perimeter. Despite losing Davis, the Bears still have plenty of perimeter athleticism to be an elite Big Sky defense once again.
With Davis gone, leadership duties fall squarely on the shoulders of Jonah Radebaugh, a do-everything guard who earned Honorable Mention All-Big Sky honors last season. The former conference Defensive Player of the Year embodies Linder’s preferred switchability in the backcourt and led the Big Sky in minutes as a junior last year (7th in the country). Radebaugh played on the wing mostly in 2018-19 where he feasted off Davis drive-and-kicks and crashed the boards hard on the defensive end, but this season he may see more time on the ball in a by-committee point guard approach. He has the ability to be a good playmaker / creator, even if not quite as effective as Davis. Expect Radebaugh to take on a larger offensive role in 2019-20 and stuff the stat sheet on a nightly basis.
The point guard role is certainly a major question mark for UNC heading into the year. As said, Radebaugh can chip in, as can senior Trent Harris and sophomore Sam Masten, but none are true lead guards. Harris was mostly a spot-up shooter last season and a glove-like on-ball defender, ranking 3rd in the league in steal rate in 2018-19. Masten has more drive to his game than the other shoot-first guards on the squad but posted a concerning turnover rate his freshman year. Redshirt freshman Tre’Shon Smoots could be the long-term answer at point with his quickness and handles, and true frosh Malcolm Little can chip in minutes at either guard spot. Look for JUCO wing Rodrick McCobb to challenge for starts in the backcourt as well; he brings more athleticism and switchability to the perimeter.
Linder will play almost exclusively four guards on the floor at once with sophomore Bodie Hume serving as the de facto 4-man. Hume was the Big Sky’s FOTY last season, ranking 4th in the league in block rate and hitting 37.6% of his overall three-point tries. Hume’s athleticism makes up for his size, and he’ll likely lead the Bears in scoring this year alongside Radebaugh. Kai Edwards and Kur Jockuch return to platoon at the center spot. The pair split starts in 2018-19 but Edwards received the lion’s share of the playing time. Edwards ranked 3rd in the Big Sky in OR% and 3rd in the country in FG% (76.1%) last season, playing his part as the perfect “know-your-role” big man. Jockuch was often in foul trouble when he saw the floor last year, but his rebounding rates were very high in limited time. Sophomore Cole Bergan will likely be the primary frontcourt reserve once again, while redshirt freshman Roy Grigsby and true freshman Cole Nicholson will vie for minutes off the pine. Grigsby is a lanky stretch 4 who still needs to add strength; Nicholson is a big, strong, aggressive wing who can steal minutes at the 4.
Bottom Line: With Montana losing a ton of key pieces from its dominant run last season, the Big Sky is more-wide open than in years past. UNC should be right in the mix for an auto-bid despite the loss of Davis and will likely be a much more balanced scoring team than recent years. Linder has solid talent up-and-down his roster and a defensive-minded squad; he just needs to find a reliable solution at the point and needs either Hume or Radebaugh to become a bona fide go-to option offensively.
5. Southern Utah
Key Returners: Cameron Oluyitan, Harrison Butler, Dwayne Morgan, Andre Adams, Dre Marin, Maizen Fausett, Ivan Madunic, Josh Cornish
Key Losses: Brandon Better, Jacob Calloway, Jason Richardson
Key Newcomers: Jakolby Long (Iowa State), Daouda N’Diaye (Illinois State), John Knight III (Utah State), Jarryd Hoppo
Lineup:
Outlook: Todd Simon has done quick work improving the Southern Utah basketball program following an interim season at UNLV. The Thunderbirds have improved in each of the three years Simon has been at the helm and last year captured their first DI postseason victory (CIT win over Drake). SUU’s 17 wins last season were the school’s most since 2000-01, and now Simon appears to have a squad ready to compete for an NCAA Tournament appearance.
The Thunderbirds have six players on their roster with Power 6, MVC, or MWC experience – that is an almost unheard-of number in any mid-major conference, let alone the Big Sky. SUU has arguably the most talented squad in the conference, but Simon still has work to do to improve an offense that ranked second worst in the league in 2018-19. Brandon Better’s graduation hurts this objective, as the T-Birds scored 1.04 PPP when he was on the floor versus just 0.97 PPP when he sat (Hoop Lens), but SUU does return Dwayne Morgan, who missed all but three games last year, and adds some high caliber DI talent.
Simon wants to run in the open floor, as his team’s athleticism and overall talent dictates. SUU was the 35th fastest team in the country last season (2nd in Big Sky), but much of that was driven by its defense (more on that later). When not running in transition (usually off turnovers), the T-Birds settle into a penetration-focused half-court offense that relied heavily on free throws to put points on the board last year. Morgan’s 6th year of eligibility is enormous – the former UNLV 5-star recruit is a beast inside and should be SUU’s highest used player when on the floor this season. SUU can play through Morgan on the block, and he’s skilled enough to step away from the hoop and shoot or drive around slower defenders. Defensively, Morgan is a solid rim protector and will add to SUU’s already-stout defensive rebounding prowess.
Morgan’s frontcourt partner inside is Andre Adams, a former Arizona State Sun Devil who scored efficiently on the block last season, rebounded well, and protected the paint. The pair combine to form one of the (if not, THE) most athletic and talented frontcourts in the Big Sky. Off the bench, stretch forwards Maizen Fausett, Ivan Madunic, and Australian freshman Jarryd Hoppo can all provide meaningful minutes when called upon. Illinoi State transfer Daouda N’Diaye will add shot blocking at the 5 after starting 14 games for the Redbirds in 2017-18 and ranking 5th in the Valley in block rate.
In the backcourt, point guard duties will be mainly handled by junior Dre Marin, a pass-first lead guard who gets to the line frequently and who shot 42.5% from outside the arc. Marin will look to hold off redshirt freshman Josh Cornish, who played well in three games last year before succumbing to a season-ending injury, and Utah State transfer John Knight III, a key bench piece for the Aggies last year who should be eligible the start of second semester play, for starting honors. Knight III in particular will be an important offensive piece off the bench and help solve SUU’s scoring woes of years past.
Simon has three wings all capable of starting this season, and any one of them is capable of being a top player on any other Big Sky squad. Cameron Oluyitan, a 3rd Team All-Big Sky honoree last season, is a gifted scorer and defender who will get to play a more preferable secondary scorer role this year with Morgan back and the addition of Jakolby Long. Sophomore Harrison Butler came on strong the latter half of his freshman season, proving to be a key scorer and ranking 4th in the Big Sky in FT rate. Iowa State import Jakolby Long has one of the better recruiting pedigrees in the league (top 100 ESPN recruit), but he’ll have to prove he’s capable of putting up big numbers at the DI level. He didn’t see much floor time at Iowa State, but rest assured Long is an uber-talented scorer and shooter who should vie for a spot on the Big Sky All-Conference squad this year.
Defensively, SUU should once again be one of the top squads in the Big Sky. Simon played about 15% zone last season, and his goal the past few years has been to force opponents to play uncomfortably fast. The T-Birds have ranked 7th, 4th, and 31st in opponent APL in Simon’s three years at the helm. In addition to this “speed you up” philosophy, SUU is lock-down on the defensive glass, ranking 1st in the Big Sky in DR% last year and 30th in the country. Morgan’s return improves SUU’s defensive ceiling, as does adding another athlete in Long. As a bonus, while Brandon Better was excellent offensively last season, his defensive splits told a different tale – SUU allowed 1.07 PPP when Better was on the floor last season versus a stifling 0.93 PPP when he sat.
Bottom Line: Southern Utah has the talent to win the Big Sky and punch a ticket to the NCAA Tournament, but past history and the overall consistency of other programs like Montana and Weber State have me hesitant to crown them the champion quite yet. If Long lives up to his pedigree and Morgan plays like a conference POY candidate, in turn vastly improving SUU’s usually-terrible offense, the Thunderbirds could be dancing in March.
Tier 2
6. Portland State
Key Returners: Holland Woods, Sal Nuhu, Rashaad Goolsby, Brendan Rumel***
Key Losses: Robert McCoy, Deante Strickland, Jamie Orme, Michael Nuga, Derek Brown, Michael Mayhew
Key Newcomers: Markus Golder (Valparaiso), Matt Hauser (Santa Clara), Alonzo Walker (Idaho State), Chris Whitaker (JUCO), Kimani Bender (JUCO), Kyle Greeley (Redshirt), Trey Wood (Redshirt), Jaden Nielsen-Skinner
Lineup:
*** Note: Brendan Rumel is not on the team roster page as of this preview date (10/22) ***
Outlook: Advanced analytics would call Portland State’s 2018-19 season a disappointment despite the Vikings winning 11 conference games for the first time since 2014. Barrett Peery’s squad finished the year ranked 286th in KenPom, the program’s lowest mark since 2013 and a 55-spot drop-off from its pre-season ranking. Nevertheless, Peery has this program trending in the right direction – he has ingrained his style into the school and has developed a positive culture at PSU. The Vikings proved they could beat anyone in the league last year, sweeping Montana and winning at Weber State, but they’ll look to improve consistency in 2019-20. Several key players depart from last season, but Peery has his star PG back and adds an impressive class of transfers with which to do battle in the Big Sky.
“Peery Pressure” is the nomenclature given to the head coach’s in-your-face defensive style of play. PSU has led the country in fullcourt press frequency in each of Peery’s two seasons at the helm. Last year, the Vikings pressed 44% of the time, a significantly higher mark than 2nd-place UNC Greensboro’s 36% clip. Peery extends his athletic guards and wings across the entire floor and relies on anchor Sal Nuhu to protect the paint. Unfortunately, while this style is unique and “sexy”, it has yet to produce any real results, as PSU’s defense ranked 8th in the Big Sky in 2017-18 and 9th (and bottom 50 in the country) last year per KenPom. Issues have come from allowing too much near the rim despite Nuhu’s presence and sending opponents to the free throw line at a much-too-high-rate. The Vikings have done well forcing turnovers and limiting outside chances, but they must improve their hacking and back-line help to challenge for a conference title.
Offensively, the Vikings have relied heavily on the offensive glass to score points. PSU ranked #1 in the country in OR% last year (17th in 2018-19), a result of hard glass crashing, skilled rebounders all over the floor, and brutal outside shooting. Peery has placed higher emphasis this offseason on bringing in guys who can shoot from beyond the arc, hoping to improve on a 341st-ranked 29.8% last season. Shooting is also important in order to give point guard Holland “Boo Boo” Woods space to work in the halfcourt. The superlative PG is the engine of PSU’s offense and is skilled at beating his man off the bounce and getting to the line. Woods’s one major improvement point for this season will be his outside shooting, as 28% on 280 career attempts won’t help win too many ball games. Forcing fewer tough shots off the dribble, whether from beyond the arc or from mid-range, will be key for Woods’s efficiency. When not working through Woods, the Vikings look to push the pace in the open floor, though Peery did pull back on the reins a bit in 2018-19 compared to the season prior.
Woods should have plenty of help in the scoring department this season with the additions of JUCO transfers Kimani Bender and Chris Whitaker and Santa Clara transfer Matt Hauser. Both Whitaker and Bender were major scorers at their respective junior colleges and will compete for starts in the backcourt and on the wing. Bender is the 60th rated JUCO prospect in the country while Whitaker earned 2nd Team NJCAA All-American honors last season. Hauser is a career 36.1% three-point shooter who started 20 games for the Broncs back in 2017-18. He can be a spot-up weapon or play on-the-ball in a point guard role; in 2016-17, Hauser led the WCC in assist rate while maintaining a miniscule turnover rate. Freshman point guard Jaden Nielsen-Skinner, a lightning quick floor general with strong passing ability, likely plays a more prominent role down the road.
Another of Peery’s huge gets from the transfer wire is Valpo wing Markus Golder, a long, athletic swingman who can do a bit of everything on the floor. He’ll add shooting, scoring, and defense for PSU this season. Idaho State (and former Kent State) forward Alonzo Walker has been tabbed by Peery as a versatile defender who will contribute greatly in PSU’s fullcourt pressure. Walker led the Big Sky in OR% last season, a sure sign he’ll fit in right away. Redshirt freshman Kyle Greeley, the Oregon HS scoring leader two years ago, will add shooting to the wing corps.
The aforementioned Nuhu will be PSU’s main man inside after leading the Big Sky in block rate (26th nationally) in 2018-19. While not a fantastic offensive player, Nuhu’s 71.4% FT clip is a promising sign for improvement. Forward Rashaad Goolsby will line up alongside Nuhu in the starting five most nights; he’s a “glue-guy” type of frontcourt player who should help out in most statistical categories. Brendan Rumel, a good offensive rebounder and starter of PSU’s first seven games in 2018-19, and Trey Wood, a very long forward with shooting range, round out Peery’s frontcourt rotation.
Bottom Line: Portland State has the tools to be a competitive squad in 2019-20 and challenge near the top of the league. The Vikings will need to improve their consistency from a shooting and defensive perspective, but the talent and athleticism is there and Peery appears to be a solid presence on the sidelines.
7. Sacramento State
Key Returners: Joshua Patton, Izayah Mauriohooho-Le’afa, Bryce Fowler, Osi Nwachukwu, Ethan Esposito, Chibueze Jacobs, James Bridges
Key Losses: Marcus Graves, Calvin Martin
Key Newcomers: Brandon Davis (UCSB), Elijah McCullough (Redshirt), Rick Barros III, Raazhel Watkins (JUCO), Jordan Cooke-Harper (JUCO)
Lineup:
Outlook: The Hornets started 2018-19 on a hot streak, knocking off three tough Big West opponents in their first five contests, but Big Sky play was another story. Sacramento State limped to an 8-12 conference mark after losing six games by just six points or less. Brian Katz enters his 12th year at the helm in Sacramento looking to lead his squad to an over-.500 conference record for just the second time in his tenure. He’ll have a much deeper and more experienced team with which to work, as nearly everyone outside of leading scorer Marcus Graves returns. Sac State has historically been a poor DI program, netting a 243-557 (.304) record since moving up to the big leagues in 1991-92. Katz has done a commendable job lifting the Hornets up to a respectable level within the Big Sky, but he’ll have real expectations this season to compete near the top of the league.
Sac State’s offense was putrid last season, as evidenced by only three players notching an O-rating over 100.0. Poor shooting and ball handling hindered the Hornets, a team that largely prefers to play through the post versus bomb from the outside (only 10 teams had a lower 3P rate than Sac State last year). That preference should once again be the case in 2019-20, as Joshua Patton, a 3rd Team All-Big Sky member last season, figures to be the center of the Sac State attack – last season, the school ranked 24th in the country in frequency of plays ended via post-up, per Synergy. Only the departed Graves and senior guard Izayah Mauriohooho-Le’afa attempted more than 65 threes last season, so Patton will see as many post feeds as he can handle. Point guard play will be key on this end – Patton attempted nearly 75% of his shot attempts near the rim last year, much of which were courtesy of Graves drive and dumps. Mauriohooho-Le’afa will likely take over the PG reins, as he did when Graves missed the 2017-18 season. He’s a capable ball handler and probably better suited on the ball if last year’s shooting percentages were any indication. Mauriohooho-Le’afa’s 3P% fell from 40% as a sophomore to 29.3%, leading to an ugly 89.1 O-rating. Katz will need Mauriohooho-Le’afa to rediscover his outside shot and be a reliable scorer in the backcourt – the year Graves missed, the Hornets went just 7-25 (4-14).
When Mauriohooho-Le’afa isn’t on the ball, Katz will have a couple options to turn to. UC Santa Barbara transfer Brandon Davis, JUCO transfer Raazhel Watkins, and freshman Rick Barros III can all handle the ball and run the point. Davis didn’t see a ton of time for a very good Gauchos squad in 2017-18, but he’ll carve out a role on Sac State this season. Watkins will also contribute to the Hornets’ shooting needs coming off a year in JUCO in which he shot 51% from outside the arc. Barros III can play all three perimeter spots and also shoot it from deep. Redshirt combo guard Elijah McCullough is potentially the best shooter on the roster, so expect Katz to give him some opportunity in the backcourt as well.
Patton anchors what should be a stout defensive unit this season. Katz mixes in a healthy amount of zone and shows a bit of fullcourt pressure, which helped the Hornets lead the Big Sky in turnover rate (32nd nationally) last season. Patton has ranked 3rd in the conference in block rate the past two years and does well at staying out of foul trouble unlike his fellow Hornets – Sac State sent opponents to the FT line at an astronomical rate in 2018-19, which derailed an otherwise solid defensive effort. The Hornets have a stable of athletic, versatile wings which should make opposing ball handlers very uncomfortable. Bryce Fowler, Osi Nwachukwu, and Chibueze Jacobs can all guard multiple spots with their length and athleticism. Fowler is also a skilled offensive threat and should see a significant uptick in his usage this season after turning in two solid shooting years. Jacobs has been a good shooter during his career on limited attempts, but like Nwachukwu is a defense-first wing. James Bridges, another option on the wing, is a three-point specialist who attempted 33 threes in 2018-19 to just 4 twos and 5 free throws.
Italian native Ethan Esposito and JUCO import Jordan Cooke-Harper round out Sac State’s frontcourt and overall 2019-20 rotation. Esposito is a strong rebounder who should see some starts alongside Patton in year two. Cooke-Harper, the son of Ron Harper, is a versatile shot blocker who finishes strong in the post and possesses burgeoning face-up skills.
Bottom Line: Sacramento State was a better squad last season than its 8-12 Big Sky record suggests, but losing Marcus Graves is going to be a significant event to overcome. Katz has plenty of experience returning this year and should be able to go about 10 deep, but he’ll need to find reliable shooting and scoring from his backcourt to compete at the top of the league. The experience gives the Hornets a relatively high floor in this league, but Graves’s departure limits their ceiling. Somewhere between 4th and 8th feels right.
8. Northern Arizona
Key Returners: Carlos Hines, Bernie Andre, Ted McCree, Cameron Shelton, Luke Avdalovic, Brooks DeBisschop, Nik Mains, Chris Bowling
Key Losses: Davon Bolton, Isaiah Thomas, Aziz Seck
Key Newcomers: Cameron Satterwhite (Loyola), Keith Haymon (Redshirt), Isaiah Lewis, Ajang Aguek
Lineup:
Outlook: The Lumberjacks weren’t given much of a chance heading into 2018-19 after finishing the previous year 5-27 (2-16). NAU was picked dead last by a significant margin in the preseason conference poll but persevered and exceeded those expectations by ratting off 8 Big Sky wins and finishing in a tie for 8th overall. With nearly everyone back, NAU will look to take the next step and enter conference title contention in 2019-20, however it will have to do so without head coach Jack Murphy who announced in early June he’d be joining Sean Miller’s staff at Arizona. In the interim, former assistant Shane Burcar will be handed the keys in a one-year audition before the Jacks conduct a national search. Burcar was a long-time high school coach prior to coming to Flagstaff but appears to have the full support of the athletic department and players. Burcar has a talented, experienced roster to help prove he can lead a Division I program.
NAU likely plays a similar style of ball this season under Burcar. The Jacks were a transition-focused offense in 2018-19 and had been nearly every year prior to that under Murphy. Last season, NAU ranked 29th in the country in frequency of possessions ending in transition but just 330th in PPP in transition. Given NAU’s youth and inexperience last year, decision-making and patience wasn’t always consistent, so hopefully a more mature crop of players can solve the transition inefficiency issues. The Jacks space the floor in the halfcourt, often playing with four outside shooting threats at once, so driving lanes are wide and kickout opportunities are ample.
Defensively, the Jacks will show a little fullcourt pressure and token zone but mostly stick with straight man. It didn’t really matter what type of defense NAU played last season, the Jacks were throttled in all of them. NAU ranked 333rd in the country in eFG% defense, a direct result of allowing opponents to get efficient shot opportunities. The Jacks had the 3rd lowest percentage of 2P jumpers allowed (typically teams want to force more of those) and allowed way too many rim chances and three-point tries. The roster has enough athleticism and length to be bothersome on this end, but we shouldn’t expect a major leap in production this season.
NAU returns the 16th highest percentage of minutes in the country this season, including six players with significant starting experience. 6’4” guard Carlos Hines will run point for the Jacks; last season he led the Big Sky in assist rate and posted a manageable turnover rate. His size makes him a good defender on the other end where he ranked 6th in the league in steal rate last year. In 2019-20, Hines will look to improve on lackluster shooting and inefficiency in transition (he was a major driver of NAU’s overall poorness on the run). On the flipside, Hines will look to continue his excellence in the pick-n-roll and in isolation situations.
Hines will be flanked in the backcourt by a combination of Ted McCree, Cameron Shelton, Luke Avdalovic, and Cameron Satterwhite. McCree and Avdalovic are the best shooters on the team, each hitting over 40% from deep in league play. Avdalovic is particularly deadly, ranking 5th in the country in 3P% (49.3%) and 1st in the Big Sky (47.2%) on a high volume. Shelton is a secondary ball handler who can run the point when called upon. He had a strong freshman year, ranking 2nd in the league in FT rate and improving his game in the latter half of conference play. Satterwhite comes by way of Loyola where he was a member of the famed 2017 Final Four squad. The 6’4” junior is a versatile athlete on the wing and will compete with the returners for a starting spot right away. Two freshmen, Keith Haymon (a redshirt) and Isaiah Lewis, could also see run on the perimeter in 2019-20. Both are lanky, long athletes with outside shooting ability. Chris Bowling, a regular starter in 2017-18, will add depth on the wing.
Bernie Andre, NAU’s Big Sky All-Conference Team representative and Co-NCOY in 2018-19, leads the frontcourt corps. Andre is a ferocious rebounder, once grabbing 34 boards over a two-game stretch late last season, and gifted scorer, highlighted by his 26-point performance in NAU’s gigantic road win over Northern Colorado to close out the year. His ability to score on the block or shoot from the perimeter makes him a tough mark in the Big Sky, particularly with how well he crashes the glass. Senior forward Brooks DeBisschop will be NAU’s man in the middle this season next to Andre, following up on a year in which he ranked 5th in the conference in OR%. DeBisschop does most of his work on the block, but he has a little range and is a so-so shot blocker on the defensive end. Sophomore Nik Mains, a stretch-4, and freshman Ajang Aguek, a super long 3/4 tweener, will be Burcar’s two frontcourt options off the pine.
Bottom Line: Murphy’s announcement to leave NAU came very late in relation to the normal timing of these decisions, but the transition over to Shane Burcar shouldn’t be a major issue. Burcar retained the entire roster after Murphy left and should be comfortable stepping into the head coaching role with a year in Flagstaff already under his belt. Murphy’s last four seasons at NAU weren’t very good, achieving just a 19-55 Big Sky record in that timespan, but he was starting to build a dangerous squad with this crop of players. Burcar should have enough talent and continuity to challenge for a top five conference finish this season.
9. Montana State
Key Returners: Harald Frey, Devin Kirby, Ladan Ricketts
Key Losses: Tyler Hall, Keljin Blevins, Sam Neumann, Russell Daniels, Lassi Nikkarinen
Key Newcomers: Mychal Paulo (JUCO), Jubrile Belo (JUCO), Amin Adamu (JUCO), Caleb Bellach, Finn Fleute, Borja Fernandez, Zach Hobbs
Lineup:
Outlook: Brian Fish led the Bobcats to an 11-9 Big Sky mark and a tie for 4th in the conference standings in 2018-19 – then he was promptly fired. MSU cut ties with Fish after five mostly lackluster seasons at the helm. Danny Sprinkle is the new sheriff in town, an MSU legend and long-time Cal State Northridge assistant. He’ll look to keep the Bobcats in the thick of the Big Sky race but will be forced to do it without superstar guard Tyler Hall, who graduated this past spring.
Everything ran through Hall and point guard Harald Frey last season. The pair combined to average 37.5 PPG, good for about half of the Bobcats’ nightly production. With Hall gone Frey becomes the undisputed leader, a role he should be able to fill with ease. The Norwegian born PG earned a spot on the Big Sky’s All-Conference 2nd Team last year, turning in a high assist rate and miniscule turnover rate to go along with a 2P / 3P / FT slash of .503 / .387 / .846. Efficiency is Frey’s middle name, and he should be able to maintain that efficiency even with the presumed spike in usage. Sprinkle said this offseason that he wants to stretch the floor, meaning we should see a continuance of the three-point focused offensive attack we were used to under Brian Fish. Frey is an excellent outside shooter and he’ll have one of the best marksmen in the country lining up next to him in Ladan Ricketts, who ranked 27th in the nation last season with his 45.8% 3P%. To boot, freshmen wings Zach Hobbs and Caleb Bellach come to Bozeman with sniper reputations and could see the floor as specialists in their first collegiate season. It’s hard to imagine MSU repeating its efficiency on offense last season (108th nationally, 2nd in Big Sky) given Hall’s departure, but the Bobcats should still be dangerous on this end.
The aforementioned freshmen will compete for the open backcourt starting spot next to Frey and Ricketts, but JUCO import Amin Adamu appears to have the inside lane. Adamu is an athletic wing who can slash and score at a high level. His versatility will add a nice change of pace to the largely shooting-focused backcourt. Fellow JUCO transfer Mychael Paulo could also see time in the backcourt with his ability to shoot from the outside and take his man off the dribble. 6’6” wing Quentin Guliford played limited minutes as a freshman, but he’ll also be in the perimeter rotation mix.
Sprinkle has decisions to make in the frontcourt where only center Devin Kirby returns with significant experience. Kirby started every game last year at the 5 and likely maintains that role in 2019-20. He’s a reliable post scorer and led the Big Sky in free throw rate as a sophomore. If Sprinkle wants shooting at the 4, which he’s indicated he does, European freshmen Finn Fleute (Germany) and Borja Fernandez (Spain) are two viable options. Fleute is an active rebounder and can handle the ball at 6’9”. Fernandez is a skilled forward with versatile offensive chops. Sophomore Zeke Quinlan had a terrible freshman year from a shooting perspective (6/32 from the field, 53.8% from the line), but he could be called upon to start next to Kirby. The Bobcats thrived offensively in 2018-19 in the limited possessions in which Quinlan and Kirby shared the floor. JUCO transfer Jubrile Belo, the #89 JUCO recruit in the land, is Sprinkle’s top recruit but it’s unlikely he’ll want to clog the lane and play him next to Kirby. Belo is a load inside at 6’9” 240 lbs. and he’ll add much-needed shot blocking and rebounding to the MSU roster.
Belo’s arrival is key for MSU’s hopes for turning around its piss poor defensive effort last season. The Bobcats ranked 346th in the country in KenPom’s defensive rankings, allowing way too many clean looks from deep when sitting back in their soft zone. MSU mostly limited rim attempts last season, but when opponents got them they usually converted. Only two teams in the country had a worse defensive FG% at the rim than Montana State last season. Belo should bolster that rim defense, but Sprinkle has work to do on the perimeter.
Bottom Line: MSU likely finishes right in the middle of the Big Sky this year. Harald Frey is a star, but the loss of Hall will be challenging to overcome. With limited key returners and a host of unknown newcomers, Sprinkle faces an uphill battle in his first head coaching season.
Tier 3
10. Idaho State
Key Returners: Balint Mocsan, Jared Stutzman, Chier Maker, Chidi Udengwu, Austin Smellie
Key Losses: Brandon Boyd, Kelvin Jones, Alonzo Walker, Sam Dowd, Gary Chivichyan
Key Newcomers: Coreyoun Rushin (JUCO), Tarik Cool (JUCO), Brayden Parker (JUCO), Jaxon Edelmayer (JUCO), Malik Porter (JUCO), Nico Aguirre (JUCO)
Lineup:
Outlook: Seven-year head coach Bill Evans was sent packing after his Bengals spent yet another season toiling near the bottom of the Big Sky standings. Evans led ISU to a 71-141 (46-83) record during his tenure, finishing over .500 just once during that time. In his place steps Ryan Looney who spent the past 15 years in the DII and NAIA ranks. Looney led his squad to the DII national championship game last season and hopes to turnaround a basketball program that hasn’t made the Big Dance since 1987.
Looney’s rebuild strategy hinges on help from the JUCO ranks, particularly the College of Southern Idaho. FIVE players from CSI join Idaho State this year, which has to be a record. Each guy brings something to the table for ISU, but it remains to be seen if they can produce at the Division I level. Malik Porter and Jaxon Edelmayer appear to have the best shots at making an immediate impact. Porter was an Honorable Mention NJCAA All-American and is capable of playing 3-5. Porter makes up for his 6’5” frame with ridiculous athleticism and length – he’ll be a human highlight reel at ISU with his ability to block shots, rebound, and play above the rim. Edelmayer is an explosive lead guard who projects as a menace in transition. Coreyoun Rushin is also getting a ton of buzz this offseason; he’s an athletic wing who tries to dunk everything. Nico Aguirre, a Chilean true point guard who can facilitate and rack up steals, and Brayden Parker, a post player with a feathery touch, round out the CSI Five. Tarik Cool, a high-scoring combo guard, also joins the Bengals this year from the JUCO ranks; he’s not overly athletic but has a smooth, controlled game.
Returning in the backcourt for the Bengals are seniors Balint Mocsan and Jared Stutzman and sophomore Austin Smellie. Mocsan is a natural 2-guard with a money stroke – he’s connected on 42.1% of his 378 three-point attempts. He was forced to play more on the ball last season, but Edelmayer’s arrival should allow him to shift back to his preferred position. Stutzman is also a knockdown shooter though he “cooled off” a bit last year shooting just 37.8% after a 2017-18 season in which he cashed 51.3% of his 3PA, good for 3rd best in the land. Smellie started three games as a freshman last year but likely remains an off-the-bench role player in 2019-20.
Up front, Chier Maker and Chidi Udengwu are the lone returners. Maker, Thon’s cousin, is a stretch 4 who can bang on the boards. Udengwu was limited to just 15 games last season but posted sky high rebounding rates when he saw the floor. Listed as a guard on the official ISU roster, Udengwu is capable of playing several positions on the floor.
It’s unclear what type of style Looney will bring to the Bengals in year one. ISU fired up threes under Evans and was one of the slower teams in the Big Sky. Given the shooters on this roster, ISU will likely still hang its hat on outside shooting but the influx of athleticism from CSI should make the Bengals a more versatile offensive unit. Defensively, Looney’s 2019-20 squad can’t do much worse than last season in which the Bengals ranked 4th worst in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom.
Bottom Line: ISU likely finishes in the bottom three of the Big Sky standings this year. Looney may prove to be a solid hire, but this team severely lacks DI talent. Taking in JUCO transfers is a good way to jumpstart a struggling program, but it’ll be a few more seasons (if ever) before the Bengals are ready to compete for a conference title.
11. Idaho
Key Returners: Trevon Allen, Marquell Fraser, Scott Blakney, Khadim Samb
Key Losses: Jared Rodriguez, Cameron Tyson, RayQuawndis Mitchell, Geno West, Xavier Smith, Cassius Smits-Francisco, Losini Kamara
Key Newcomers: Ja’Vary Christmas (JUCO), Babacar Thiombane (JUCO), BJ Simmons (JUCO), Quinton Forrest (Jacksonville), Michael Hanshaw
Lineup:
Outlook: Well, the good news is Idaho basketball can’t get any worse. The Vandals were simply atrocious last season, ranking 348th in KenPom and finishing 2-18 in the Big Sky, good for dead last by five full games. Don Verlin’s team was very young but nobody could’ve predicted the sheer suckiness that was UI last year. Prior to 2018-19, the Vandals cruised to a 22-9 (14-4) mark and were a consistent league title contender each of the three seasons leading up to the “Great Collapse”. Verlin came under scrutiny this spring for three potential NCAA violations, which led to a suspension and his ultimate firing. This article from John Blanchette for the Spokesman-Review is a good representation of how many Vandal fans must feel after seeing their long-time head coach let go for presumably minor violations. In Verlin’s place steps Zac Claus, an assistant under Verlin the past four years and a 10-year veteran at Nevada under Mark Fox and David Carter. Claus inherits a gutted team that will rely on JUCO transfers to replace much of its lost production.
Idaho’s offense was the worst in the Big Sky last season, unfamiliar territory for a Don Verlin coached team. Verlin was known as something of an offensive wizard and his squads were traditionally among the best in the league. Motion is key in Verlin’s (and presumably Claus’s) attack, as the offense looks to free shooters off pass-and-cuts and off-ball screens. The Vandals led the nation in percentage of possessions finished by shots off a screen, departed guard Cameron Tyson being the primary beneficiary. Idaho was also successful scoring in the post and off ball screens, two trends that should continue with the return of Trevon Allen and Scott Blakney.
Allen is the only four-year UI veteran on the roster, a point guard who racked up a high assist rate and low turnover rate and converted outside shots at a respectable clip. Allen was best working out of the pick-n-roll where he could use his size to knife into the lane. He’s the returning leading scorer for Idaho and figures to be its undisputed leader in 2019-20. Blakney will be his opposite in the post, a big man who was extremely efficient on post-up possessions last season. While not overly intimidating on the glass or protecting the rim, Blakney is valuable for his ability to put the ball in the basket.
Marquell Fraser, Khadim Samb, and Chance Garvin are Idaho’s three other returners. Fraser, formerly of VCU, played just seven games last season before succumbing to injury. He was off to a productive start playing on the wing and contributing with the facilitation and scoring efforts. He’ll be one of Claus’s foremost key players this year with his versatility and rebounding ability from the perimeter. Samb is a stretch 4 who shot well on limited attempts in 2018-19, and Garvin, a walk-on who started four games last year, contributed mostly as a shooter.
From the JUCO ranks comes Ja’Vary Christmas, Babacar Thiombane, and BJ Simmons. They’ll join forces with freshman Michael Hanshaw and Jacksonville grad transfer Quinton Forrest to form Idaho’s newcomer class. Christmas is a lanky guard with serious range on his jumper. Simmons, another guard, can score from the outside or get to the rack. Forrest will contribute on the wing or as a small-ball 4; he played at Bethune Cookman prior to Jacksonville and racked up plenty of rebounds and steals in the MEAC. Thiombane, a member of Army prior to going to JUCO, will add rim protection, frontcourt depth and rebounding. Hanshaw will chip in as a post scorer and potential shot blocker.
Idaho wasn’t a world beater on offense in 2018-19, but its defense was an absolute shit show. The Vandals were the 2nd worst defensive team in the country per KenPom, forcing turnovers at the lowest rate in the nation and allowing easy open outside looks and getting punished in the paint. Verlin implemented a three-quarter-court token press designed to slow the opposing offense down. His squad then usually dropped back into a 2-3 zone or a packed-in man-to-man where he dared opponents to beat his Vandals with outside shooting (which most of them gladly did). Claus will need to improve his team’s efforts on this end if Idaho has any hope of finishing out of the Big Sky basement in 2019-20.
Bottom Line: Idaho will continue to be one of the worse teams in the country this season. Claus may be a capable head coach but losing a leader like Verlin is never a good thing for a program looking to get back on track.