-Matt Cox
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Antoine Davis, So., Detroit Mercy
Coach of the Year: Jerrod Calhoun, Youngstown State
Newcomer of the Year: Marcus Burk, R Jr., IUPUI
Freshman of the Year: Christopher Gettelfinger, Oakland
Team Previews
Tier 1
1. Wright St.
Key Returners: Loudon Love, Cole Gentry, Billy Wampler
Key Losses: Mark Hughes, Parker Ernsthausen, Alan Vest
Key Newcomers: Jordan Ash, Aleksandar Dozic, Trey Calvin
Lineup:
Outlook: Last season, everybody and their mother could see that Wright State and Northern Kentucky were on a collision course in the Horizon. Both were pegged to finish first and second in some order by most preseason prognosticators, and as the season played out, the Norse and the Raiders made those predictions look prophetic. After splitting the regular season series, it was only fitting that the Horizon’s top-2 squads would inevitably square off in the conference tournament title game.
The build up would end in bitter despair for the Raiders - the Norse won the rubber match, punching their ticket to the Big Dance, while simultaneously relegating Scott Nagy and his pesky bunch to the NIT.
The Raiders now seek vengeance, a quest they’ll embark on without two of their top rotational cogs, Mark Hughes and Parker Ernsthausen. Hughes and Ernsthausen accounted for two of the Horizon League’s five member All-Defensive Team, so Nagy’s first order of business will be identifying their replacements.
To replace Hughes, Nagy has two viable options to call upon. First on the list is Northwestern import Jordan Ash, a defensive bulldog who brings Big Ten pedigree to the watered down Horizon. Incumbent Jaylon Hall is also back in the mix, who missed all but one game last year with a shoulder injury. Hall’s offensive skill set and fluidity are enticing, and he’s spent one more year in Nagy’s system, which should give him an edge over Ash in the battle for the starting nod. Both will get their fair share of burn in the backcourt, but another injury to the fragile Ash could place a heavy workload on to Hall’s lap.
As far as Ernsthausen goes, Nagy can utilize a by-committee approach to replenish his production. Last season, Nagy effectively used two different front line combinations: 1) a twin tower approach with Loudon Love and Ernsthausen; 2) a perimeter-oriented lineup with Love and Billy Wampler at the 4.
Wampler is the key ingredient for Wright State’s balance on both sides of the ball (fun fact alert: Wright State finished 122nd overall in offensive and defensive efficiency last year, per kenpom.com). Wampler’s bodybuilder physique enables him to tussle with bigger bodies down low on defense, while his complete scoring package makes him a mismatch at the 4 offensively. As the advanced on / off numbers from hooplens.com illuminate, the Raiders were actually better defensively with this smaller lineup construction last season:
Collectively, Wampler and Love look like they could out bench any frontcourt in the league, and with the return of high-flying Skyelar Potter pinching down on the boards from the perimeter, most possessions will be ‘one and done’ for opposing offenses.
6’9 Marist grad transfer Aleksandar Dozic is another intriguing asset, an exceptional passer and versatile scorer who can create a variety of mismatches offensively - but, as Nagy detailed earlier this summer, he still has work to do on the other side of the ball:
“He’s probably more polished offensively than Parker and I think he will score better, but he’s not as good defensively and needs to get much better on that end.”
Nagy’s been surprised by the development of redshirt freshman Grant Basile, another skilled forward who redshirted last season after an ankle injury put his college career on pause. Like Dozic, Basile’s offensive tool kit allows him to step away from the paint, so inserting him at the 4 will provide Love acres of space inside to operate.
Acting as the superglue at point guard will be Cole Gentry, a veteran floor general who connects all the dots. Gentry is Mr. Reliable as the primary ball handler in the backcourt, responsible for conducting the offense and scoring opportunistically when the moment strikes. Had it not been for a mini shooting slump last year, his efficiency numbers would’ve been off the charts good, but anything he provides from a shooting / scoring perspective is gravy. Gentry’s most precious trait is on-floor leadership, as he’ll once again be an extension of Nagy on the floor at all times.
Bottom Line: The biggest change from last year to this season is the sturdy bench Nagy will have at his disposal, as he discussed earlier this summer in an interview with the Dayton Daily News:
“We’ve never had depth like this since I’ve been here. We had good players before, but we had to rely pretty much on seven guys. Now we’ve got a lot of good players and we’re going to have some really good players on our team who just don’t see a lot of time on the floor. Those are decisions we’ll have to make.”
Along with rising sophomore James Mann and sharpshooting freshman Trey Calvin, Nagy could go as many as 10-deep, a refreshing extension from the 7 to 8-man rotations he leaned on last year. With Northern Kentucky in the midst of a transition phase, and few other worthy adversaries posing a legitimate threat, the Raiders are my pick to win the league outright after sharing the conference crown with the Norse last season.
2. Northern Kentucky
Key Returners: Jalen Tate, Tyler Sharpe, Dantez Walton, Trevon Faulkner
Key Losses: Drew McDonald, Chris Vogt, Zaynah Robinson
Key Newcomers: Adham Eleeda, Bryson Langdon, John Harge, Karl Harris, David Wassler
Lineup:
Outlook: Bye bye Mr. Brannen. Turns out, when you grow a Division-1 program fetus into a perennial league powerhouse in just four years time, the big boys come knocking. Such was the case with Brannen, who was poached by nearby Cincinnati after Mick Cronin bolted for Hollywood earlier this summer. Unlike UCLA’s 24-hour telethon of a hiring process, Northern Kentucky went about their business in covert fashion, with seemingly no leaks and no rumors of any sorts until a final decision was made. Behind closed doors, Darrin Horn was discreetly selected as Brannen’s successor, a household name with a resume overqualified for the Horizon League - just think Kevin Spacey applying to Mr. Smiley’s in American Beauty...
Horn’s LinkedIn page includes a decade of head coaching experience, split between Western Kentucky and South Carolina, along with another 8-years as an assistant at both Marquette and, most recently, Texas. Clearly this pedigree played a part in the roster staying loyal to their Northern Kentucky commitments, as Horn retained the crux of last year’s core rotation.
Keeping Jalen Tate, the Horizon’s most complete two-way player, from exiting stage right was priority #1 this offseason for Horn. Tate was second-in-command to Drew McDonald last season, but it’s now Tate’s time to shine as the lead creator offensively, while he resumes his role as defensive vice grip on the other side of the ball. Tate has superstar glitter sprinkled all over him and Horn’s frenetic style should tap into every ounce of his potential.
For context, the following quote is an excerpt from Horn’s introductory press conference:
"You wanna know what style of play we're going to play? The one that gives us the best chance to win. In a couple of words, I would say, 'Aggressive, attacking on both ends of the floor.' Obviously, that starts on the defensive end for me but we're gonna do what we do to suit our personnel to be the best team that we can."
Tate’s defensive ball hawking will be fully unleashed if Horn opts to bring back the chaotic pressure scheme he instilled at Western Kentucky and at South Carolina in brief spurts. Also keep in mind Horn just spent the last five years at Texas under Mr. Havoc himself, Shaka Smart (though, Shaka has mostly abandoned his VCU roots).
Tyler Sharpe is back to flank Tate off-the-ball, a stocky, skilled 2-guard who can dial it up from long distance. Sharpe is a career 39% 3-point shooter, but those who watch the Norse on a nightly basis know he’s far more versatile than just a stand-still shooter. He’s deceptively effective as a secondary creator and his quickness helped him notch the Horizon’s top steal rate two seasons ago, a trait that will come in handy in Horn’s defensive template.
Rounding out the primary perimeter rotation are three more established names, along with a lesser known 3-point assassin. Trevon Faulkner is cut from the same cloth as Tate, a long athletic guard who will flourish in Horn’s open floor freedom. Frenchman Paul Djoko stands 6’5, another prolific athlete and steady off-the-bench contributor last season, while Tre Cobbs is back in action after taking a medical redshirt last season. Adham Eleeda is a gunner’s gunner, a JUCO newcomer who canned 129 triples on a whopping 316 attempts last season at Sheridan College in Wyoming.
Horn’s coaching impact isn’t limited to the backcourt. During his stint at Texas, Horn slowly developed a reputation as a big man whisperer, helping mold Prince Ibeh, Jarret Allen, Mo Bamba and Jaxson Hayes in to future draft picks, a rather impressive track record of ‘project-to-pro’ conversions.
I guess someone forgot to relay this factoid to the now departed Chris Vogt, a 7-footer who was in line to take over as the predominant 5-man. Granted, you can’t blame the kid for following Brannen to Cincinnati, but this move does leave a minor cavity in the Norse’s frontline.
There’s nowhere near the top-flight caliber leapers Horn had at his disposal at Texas on this NKU roster, so he’ll have to patch together meaningful production from Silas Adheke and Adrian Nelson (currently still recovering from offseason back surgery). Both played sparingly last season, but quasi-4 Dantez Walton can help shepherd these young-ins into reliable role players. At 6’7, Walton is jack-of-all-trades pocket knife who can impact the game in a multitude of ways.
Bottom Line: John Brannen put Northern Kentucky on the map, but Darrin Horn knows his success in Highland Heights was not just a flash in the pan. Many thought Horn could’ve been far more selective in his jump back to the head coaching ranks, yet he clearly sees the Northern Kentucky basketball program as a diamond in the rough.
Not only does Horn set the Norse up for sustainable long-term success, but he inherits a roster with a DNA primed to pick up his system right away. This transition shouldn’t be a cataclysmic change for the incumbents, as Brannen slowly ramped up the tempo in each of the last two seasons. With a rock solid three-pronged core of Tate, Sharpe and Walton, the Norse aren’t going anywhere in the first year of this new regime.
3. Illinois Chicago
Key Returners: Marcus Ottey, Godwin Boahen, Tarkus Ferguson, Jordan Blount*, Rob Howard Jr., Michael Diggins
Key Losses: Dominique Matthews
Key Newcomers: Brian Taylor
Lineup:
*Update: Jordan Blount tore his ACL in June and could be out for the season
Outlook: About a year ago to the day (timestamp: 9/12/19 5:52 PM CST), I declared Illinois Chicago my 2018-19 darkhorse. What’s so beautiful about the [overused and constantly regurgitated] term ‘darkhorse’ is its opaqueness. Even the smartest lawyers in the room would have trouble proving that I was ‘wrong’ definitively, but I’m not here to rationalize that farfetched prognosis - I’m here to confess…
Yes, that was indeed a bold and scorching hot take, but I’m back and as cocky as ever. I’m hereby doubling down on last year’s flag plant with the following assertion: UIC is finally going to break through in 2019-20.
When Steve McClain first arrived in Chicago back in 2015, he took the typical tear-down and rebuild route - yet, rather than disassemble the inherited roster with care, he blew the remaining pieces to smithereens. The recruiting trail was his primary focus during the 2015-16 campaign, which eventually produced a star-studded class comprised of Marcus Ottey, Godwin Boahen, Tarkus Ferguson, and KJ Santos to ignite the program resurrection.
After playing punching bag his first season at the helm, McClain unleashed his dynamic quartet in 2016-17, and the Flames engineered a 12-win turnaround from the disastrous 5-25 year prior. While Santos would defect the following offseason, the guard trio stayed in tact and pushed the season win total to 20 as sophomores, inching closer to the top of the Horizon leaderboard.
That long winded narrative above, combined with the flashy pizzaz of the Flames’ racecar tempo and cocaine-induced offense, likely suckered me into the hype train last summer. Sure enough, the Flames cooled off. McClain’s men mysteriously regressed in both overall record and analytic performance measures, leaving me confounded as to why I’m going back to the well yet again in 2020.
For starters, UIC is the perfect case study for why the use of ‘per game stats’ should be banned by the NCAA. The Flames poured in 75 points a game last season, a deceiving figure given they checked in with the 2nd worst offense in the Horizon League on an efficiency basis. The backcourt triumvirate of Ottey, Ferguson and Boahen are electric when they get in a groove, but McClain puts no guide rails around their shot selection or decision making. With the brake pedal nowhere to be found, the Flames race up and down with reckless abandon, often backfiring in the form of unforced errors.
This is not a new trend for the Flames, who have consistently ranked among the nation’s leaders in turnovers since McClain took over. But as age increases, so should basketball maturation, and as far as ball security goes, the now veteran backcourt has failed to grasp this concept. Perhaps more minutes for Australian Jamie Ahale will help here, a more conservative long range sniper who won’t force the action off the dribble.
Compounding these issues last year was a reluctance to attack the rim, especially in transition when odd-man advantages are common. Ottey is the exception here, a drive-first scorer who attempted 125 free throws last season, but his counterparts Boahen and Ferguson lived and died by the 3-ball far too often. While both were consumed with their own individual 3-point contests, they collectively neglected the free-throw line - for context, Boahen and Ferguson went to the charity stripe roughly 1.5 times a game last season, a preposterously low clip in this frenetic-paced offense.
With the guards averse to attacking the rim, along with a retooled frontline failing to make a dent on the glass, the Flames became a one-trick pony offensively. By coughing up the rock, they wasted possessions. By forfeiting the offensive boards, they failed to steal extra possessions. By shying away from the rim, they put an inordinate amount of pressure on outside shot making. The result? A hollow offense that lacked true substance.
On the other side of the ball, all you have to do is flip the narrative above. While the total points allowed by UIC implies the defense was a sieve, it was quite the opposite last season. McClain has taken a liking to springy bigs who are both supreme shot-blockers and mobile defenders on the perimeter (not to mention willing and able shooters on offense). Jordan Blount and his unabashed swagger were penciled in to fortify the interior, but a devastating ACL tear this summer likely ends his 2019-20 season before it begins. That should thrust Sin City native Michael Diggins, a wing / forward hybrid with serious bunnies and a deceptively smooth shooting stroke, into the starting lineup, alongside human fly swatter Rob Howard at the 5. Howard’s verticality makes him one of the most disruptive deterrers in the Horizon, which explains the Flames’ league leading 2PT% defense last season. Inverse forward Travell Washington will round out the frontline unit, the most precise long range shooter of the trigger-happy forwards.
Bottom Line: Steve McClain hails from the Tom Crean school of offense, which breeds unbounded offensive freedom and feeds irrational individual confidence. When shots are falling, the Flames are fun to watch, but the relative lack of discipline can also manifest in some super sloppy basketball. With a veteran-laden roster that’s been through the ringer under McClain, this sets up to be a breakthrough year for the Flames. Here’s to hoping I was simply a year early in confessing my profound love for this team last season, and that it all comes together in 2020.
Tier 2
4. Green Bay
Key Returners: Shanquan Hemphill, JayQuan McCloud, PJ Pipes, Kameron Hankerson, Josh McNair, Cody Schwartz, Trevian Bell, Manny Patterson
Key Losses: Sandy Cohen
Key Newcomers: Amari Davis, Japannah Kellogg III, Lucas Stieber
Lineup:
Outlook: Linc Darner is forever indebted to his predecessor Brian Wardle. Wardle, now the head honcho at Bradley, left Darner a well-oiled race car when he took control of the cockpit back in 2015. All Darner had to do was hit ‘autopilot’ and lo and behold, Darner found himself on the NCAA tournament dance floor the following March...
Somewhere along the way shortly after that magical first season, the stick shift got stuck in reverse. The Phoenix slowly faded into oblivion over the next two seasons, failing to translate Darner’s Tasmanian Devil pace of basketball into consistent winning. It wasn’t until last year when Darner finally dislodged the transmission and shifted Green Bay back into forward drive, as the Phoenix are now slowly creeping back up the Horizon League ladder.
The imbalance between the ‘Key Returners’ and ‘Key Losses’ section above explains my bullishness on the Phoenix’s 2019-20 prognosis. While Sandy Cohen was a program pillar, a former Marquette down transfer who made the Horizon his personal playground for two years, Darner’s roster is still stuffed with quality depth, a critical characteristic in such a physically demanding system. Including Cohen, 9 players clocked at least 30% of all available minutes last season, so the returning 8 are well prepared to slide one notch up in the pecking order.
Senior twosome JayQuan McCloud and Tank Hemphill will play first and second fiddle, but who actually sits in the first chair remains to be seen. Hemphill didn’t hesitate to assert his authority last season, consistently wearing out defeated defenders with his perpetual motor and pursuit of the rim. Hemphill won’t win any 3-point contests and badly needs to correct his broken free-throw form, but his rare combination of effort and athleticism guarantees a positive impact each and every night out.
McCloud, a former JUCO All-American, could take a page out of Hemphill’s ‘consistency’ playbook. McCloud is a more potent scorer and dynamic creator offensively, so I’d expect Darner to allocate the primary initiation responsibilities in his direction. McCloud started his college career at Milwaukee before a quick run on the JUCO circuit, and he now gets to be the go to guy with Cohen leaving the limelight. McCloud plays with the savviness of a seasoned veteran, but he must stay out of the training room this year. He only missed two games last year due to injury, an encouraging sign that he can stay on the floor for a full season. PJ Pipes is back to flank McCloud on the perimeter, a sporadic starter for each of the past two seasons. Pipes has a sturdy frame and possesses a true combo guard skillset, so he’ll be McCloud’s support system in the backcourt this season.
This duo, along with supersub Kam Hankerson, will ignite the turbo-speed transition attack and own the individual 1-v-1 creation duties in the half-court. As the chart below reveals, Darner doesn’t utilize pick-n-roll action like many NBA-minded ‘pace and space’ enthusiasts - rather, he just wants to get his athletes in spots where they have momentum going east and west toward the rim (see ‘Iso’ and ‘Transition’ frequencies):
Darner will once again unleash a flock of athletic wings and forwards - Josh McNair, Cody Schwartz, Trevian Bell and Manny Patterson - to optimize his patented “RP40” system. While that acronym stands for “relentless pressure for 40 minutes”, this is a far cry from Nolan Richardson’s ‘40 minutes of hell’. The Phoenix will still get up into opposing jockstraps, but this chart from Synergy reveals that Darner will pull back his pressure into more half-court traps quite often:
Pressing on *just* 23% of defensive possessions may seem disingenuous to the “RP40” brand name, but, as the graphic above reveals, only 20 teams in America pressed more often than Green Bay did last season.
Over the last four years, it’s clear Darner has altered his points of defensive emphasis to align with personnel. In 2017 and 2018, Darner used the press as more of a delay mechanism, aimed at forcing opposing offenses to initiate half-court sets with less time remaining in the shot clock. Last year, the pendulum swung back to an ‘event-driven’ pressure scheme, as the Phoenix’s steal and block rates both spiked, relative to the two years prior.
Bottom Line: Picking the Phoenix to finish in the upper-half of the league is a big bet on McCloud, who has to emulate 90% of what Cohen brought to the table last year. With Cohen off the floor, Green Bay’s offense had a tendency to resemble unorganized chaos last season. McCloud is an established bucket getter with a cerebral basketball mind and Pipes has steadily improved in his own right, but Cohen’s Power-6 pedigree made him a special asset for the Phoenix’s offense. All things considered, the Phoenix should finish somewhere in the middle of the pack, no higher than 4th, but no lower than 7th.
5. Youngstown State
Key Returners: Darius Quisenberry, Garrett Covington, Naz Bohannon, Jelani Simmons, Olamide Pedersen, Devin Morgan Jr., Donel Cathcart III, Michael Akuchie
Key Losses: Noe Anabir
Key Newcomers: Tyler Foster, Jamir Thomas
Lineup:
Outlook: Don’t look now, but the Penguins are comin’ kids…
Under the supervision of Jerrod Calhoun, ‘the Youngstown Youngsters’ are gunning for a seat in the Horizon’s top-5 in 2020. A pair of scintillating sophomores in Darius Quisenberry and Jelani Simmons will set the tone on the perimeter, a terrific twofer now oozing with confidence fresh off stellar freshman campaigns.
An excerpt from the Tribune Chronicle published on January 1st put into perspective just how high Calhoun is on his dynamic backcourt duo. Calhoun compared Quisenberry, Simmons and fellow freshman forward Olamide Pedersen, to Wright State’s decorated triumvirate of Loudon Love, Cole Gentry and Mark Hughes:
“We’re seeing that before our own eyes with Darius and Jelani. Ola was tremendous early. Now he’s went through a slump. His effort (against Oakland) was pretty good and he was locked in.”
Prior to that slump, it looked as if Pedersen was on the cusp of becoming a household name around the Horizon. As Calhoun alluded to above, Pedersen hit a freshman wall during the dog days of January, but he displayed next-level defensive instincts early on in the year:
Pedersen broke his hand earlier this summer, but Calhoun indicated he’ll be fine in a separate interview with the Tribute Chronicle in early September.
Garrett Covington and Naz Bohannon round out what should be a fierce defensive front, but the Penguins’ interior resistance is still ‘under construction’. At 6’5, Convington’s a positionless pest on the ball and the entire Horizon took notice last season, awarding him All Horizon Defense Team honors. Bohannon’s one of the more unique players in the entire league, a top-flight athlete and elite two-way rebounder who doubles as an offensive trigger-man with his unsuspecting passing prowess.
Yet, despite all the versatility and athleticism, the frontline is still on the smaller end of the spectrum. With minimal size up front, combined with an overly aggressive defensive mindset, it makes sense that opponents converted 68% of all near proximity shots against the ‘Guins last year, per haslametrics.com, a clip that graded out as the 19th worst in the nation.
Somehow it seems Devin Morgan has been inexcusably lost in the shuffle, a former full-time starter turned sixth man lightning bolt, capable of pouring in 20-plus on any given night. With the new regime in place, it’s clear Calhoun prioritized carving out ample opportunities for his young guns, but Morgan still played starter’s minutes despite coming off the bench in the final final 26 games of the season. Donel Cathcart and Michael Akuchie were each key cogs in the rotation last year, two more under-the-radar reserves who Calhoun will call upon on a nightly basis once again this season.
Two new faces in top-100 JUCO prospect Jamir Thomas and former ECU spot starter Tyler Foster are just icing on the cake for Calhoun and company. Depth was already a strength, but injecting two experienced newcomers with real upside leads me to believe Calhoun may dial up the defensive intensity this year. As it shapes up now, the Penguins can roll out 10-deep with minimal drop off from 1 through 10. Just ask Calhoun’s former mentor Bob Huggins, who just had his roster ravaged with injuries and suspensions, how important depth is to a pressure-centric defensive scheme.
Bottom Line: I mean, what’s not to like about the mighty Penguins on paper. Quisenberry, Covington and Bohannon are each All Horizon caliber players, still on the upward curve of their development trajectory. Morgan and Cathcart bring a calming veteran presence off the pine, though both could (and likely will) notch their fair share of starts, while Simmons and Pedersen played wise beyond their years in their respective freshmen campaigns. To top it off, all of these troops will be under the direction of Jim Calhoun, a respected coaching tactician and longtime mentee of Bob Huggins. If you’re looking for a deep, deep sleeper to steal the Horizon crown, look no further than the Penguins.
6. Milwaukee
Key Returners: Darius Roy, DeAndre Abram
Key Losses: Carson Warren-Newsome, Vance Johnson, Jake Wright, Bryce Barnes
Key Newcomers: Te’Jon Lucas, Harrison Henderson, Josh Thomas
Lineup:
Outlook: No team has bewildered the Weave more than Milwaukee has the past three seasons. After a respectable 4-3 start in league play last year, the Panthers squandered down the stretch to the tune of 10-straight losses to close out the season. The 9-22 overall record is an eyesore, but a pair of competitive efforts against league co-champion Wright State (losses by 2 and 3 points in both regular season matchups) is an indicator that the Panthers were far from hopeless. Pat Baldwin’s bunch just lacked consistency, which was likely a byproduct of an amalgamation of new pieces struggling to mesh together as a cohesive unit. Per kenpom.com, Milwaukee’s overall rank barely changed from the end of January (coinciding with the 4-3 start in conference) until the end of the season, a sign that those string of losses was a combination of both bad luck and an inability to close out tight games.
Baldwin will try to course correct in his third year at the helm, now armed with a robust crop of talented additions imported from all over the country. Yet, despite the shiny new toys that have garnered palpable offseason buzz, lead guard Darius Roy will remain the pulse of this Panther team. I flat out disrespected Roy in my Horizon preview last summer, an oversight I sorely regret upon second review. I should’ve known Roy had the chops to be an immediate difference maker after coming over from Mercer the year prior. The pitfall was not factoring in how good Mercer was when Roy was there, as he was stuck behind a star studded veteran backcourt that pushed him to the back-burner as an unproven underclassman. Categorizing Mercer to Milwaukee as a ‘down transfer’ sounds a bit off, but this is exactly what it was - for context, Milwaukee finished roughly 150 spots lower than Mercer in kenpom.com’s 2017 final rankings, the year Roy rotted on the pine behind a pair of All-Conference caliber guards in Ria’n Holland and Jordan Strawberry.
The point is this: What we witnessed last year from Roy was far from a fluke. I expect him to be equally, if not more efficient this season, in large part due to the hyper-talented supporting cast around him.
It’s not often a 16 PPG scorer like Roy relinquishes his alpha dog role and takes a step back in usage, but with Illinois transfer Te’Jon Lucas coming to the rescue, it might be in the Panthers’ best interest. Baldwin is a pick-n-roll advocate, evidenced by the Panthers’ 30th highest PnR rate in the country last season (per Synergy), so Lucas should be salivating at the surplus of opportunities he’ll get to attack. Opposing Horizon defenses will have their hands full corralling two premier playmakers in Roy and Lucas, both of whom can go off for 20-plus on any given night.
The Power-6 transfer invasion doesn’t end with Lucas. USC import Harrison Henderson will fill the void left behind by Vance Johnson, and team up with Amir Allen and Wil Sessoms in the paint. Among the forwards, DeAndre Abram is the X-factor, a super long wing at 6’8 who moves with the fluidity of a guard. His versatility is boundless, skilled enough to stretch the floor offensively, but bouncy enough to crash the boards defensively.
The big wildcard is redshirt freshman Shae Mitchell, a former 3-star prospect depending on which recruiting outlet you gravitate toward. At 6’7 with an advanced offensive repertoire, Mitchell’s only ‘weakness’ is precisely that. Despite a lean frame, Mitchell has a quick first step on the drive, equally adept at slashing with either hand, and displays an uncanny feel for the game.
This highlight clip below is from 2017, a game in which he went bananas against Matthew Hurt’s high school team (5-star prospect now at Duke):
The roster skews big heavy, as Baldwin is searching for a 3rd guard to give Roy and Lucas a breather (or play alongside them if he opts to go smaller). Former Simeon High School standout Josh Thomas enters the mix, a sturdy 6’4 guard who is coming off a stellar JUCO campaign - he paced Wabash Valley College to a top-25 national ranking and a team leading 15 points a game. With Jake Wright’s sharpshooting now absent (Wright rained in 40% of his triples last year on 172 attempts), Thomas could carve out a role in the primary rotation right away if he can knock down outside shots at a high clip.
Bottom Line: Reminiscent of last season, Panther fans won’t recognize too many faces on the floor, but the ones they don’t, they’ll cozy up to in a hurry. If Lucas and Henderson flex their high major muscles on the Horizon, the Panthers should shoot up the Horizon standings with this bevy of talent.
7. Oakland
Key Returners: Tray Maddox, Xavier Hill-Mais, Brad Brechting
Key Losses: Braden Norris, Jaevin Cumberland, Kamari Newman, James Beck
Key Newcomers: Rashad Williams, Kevin Kangu, Daniel Olapado, Yusuf Jihad, Emmanuel Newsome, Madison Monroe, Christopher Gettelfinger, Jackie Harris
Lineup:
Outlook: Greg Kampe is a 3MW favorite, a true throwback to the good ‘ol days of college basketball. His mouth is more uncut and uncensored than the American Pie series, a refreshing quality in the age of cookie cutter coaches petrified to ruffle any feathers with their commentary. There’s no better example than when he voiced his distain with the transfer turbulence that’s infected this new era of college basketball:
“Where in real life can you be working on a team and say ‘oh screw it, I’m gonna go into a portal and see who else wants me?’” Kampe asked. “It just doesn’t exist. I’m having a hard time with this, as you could tell.”
This comment was fueled by his own personal frustration, as Oakland watched 6 transfers walk out the door this summer (including key contributors Jaelin Cumberland, Braden Norris, Kamari Newman and James Beck), forcing Kampe to overhaul the roster with 10 new players this season.
Losing Norris and Cumberland strips the Griz of their best ball handler (Norris), best facilitator (Norris) and best shooter (Cumberland), but Kampe did manage to retain his most feared offensive weapon in Xavier Hill-Mais. Oakland’s 2017-18 juggernaut relegated XHM to forgettable benchwarmer, but Hill-Mais unleashed his rage on an unsuspecting Horizon League last year. An unfair combination of size, strength and skill destroyed any type of defender opposing teams threw at him. XHM sort of reminds me of Paul Millsap in that he’s hard to categorize positionally - the physical frame is what grabs your attention, but the handle and smooth shooting stroke catch you by surprise.
Tactically, Kampe loves to initiate offense with simultaneous staggered screening action, aimed at freeing up one his shooters for an open look early in the shot clock. After this initial action and subsequent ball reversals, the Griz often go inside to Hill-Mais in an iso post setting. For teams who can’t check him 1-on-1, Hill-Mais will exploit double teams with pinpoint passing, often setting up uncontested, catch-and-shoot 3s from the perimeter.
This need to space the floor for Hill-Mais is why Kampe needs to locate shooters in his newly renovated roster. Of the returning guards, only Tray Maddox’s spot in the primary rotation feels secure, which should be further solidified by his ability to stroke it from deep (39% from 3 last year). Incoming freshman Christopher Gettelfinger could become Kampe’s second consecutive freshman point guard after he handed the keys to Braden Norris last year. Gettelfinger’s more of a lead guard compared to Norris, unafraid to hunt his own shot, but he showed he can orchestrate an offense during a standout high school career in Tennessee. With Rashad Williams still ineligible at the moment, Gettelfinger will have every opportunity to seize the starting spot from day 1.
Two other prominent pickups will make it tough for incumbent Kenny Pittman to crack the rotation, one of the few returnees from last year’s roster. Daniel Oladapo and Kevin Kangu are the other two additions Kampe projects to be critical cogs this season, two malleable tools who can collectively step into positions 1 through 4, depending on lineup combinations. Their experience will give them a leg up on another enticing freshman prospect in Emmanuel Newsome, who gives Kampe yet another option at point guard.
Based on Oakland’s summer expedition to Greece, a blatantly obvious breakout candidate is Yusuf Jihad, who scored 29 points on 11 of 16 shooting, to go along with eight rebounds, in Oakland’s final game of the tour. With sophomore center Babatunde Sowunmi still scratching the surface of his development, Jihad may be the solution up front for Kampe to insert next to the elastic 6’11 Brad Brechting.
Not even Nostradamus himself can predict what we’ll see on the other end of the floor this season. Kampe’s defensive units have been all over the place, ranging from soft (see last year and the year prior) to smothering (see 2016-17). The secret sauce in that suffocating 2017 squad was the swarm of athletes across all five positions. While the Griz’s assortment of athletes last year doesn’t quite stack up with the 2017 high major caliber roster, kenpom.com’s conference vs non-conference splits show that Oakland started to tighten up the screws defensively during league play last year, after an abysmal opening two months. While a much easier schedule played a hand in this uptick, the Griz allowed a respectable 1.03 points per possession to Horizon opponents, the 4th best clip in the league.
Bottom Line: The defensive consistency is what will decide the fate of the 2020 Oakland season, a volatile variable that’s been nearly impossible to predict with all the roster turnover in recent years. No matter where it's sourced from, Kampe always sports one of the most talented rosters in the Horizon, but this year’s rendition isn’t as robust. The Griz could easily sneak into the top-5, but this feels like a rare year of regression for Kampe after the unexpected roster shakeup this summer.
8. Detroit
Key Returners: Antoine Davis, Marquis Moore, Willy Isiani, Chris Brandon
Key Losses: Josh McFolley, Derrien King, Gerald Blackshear
Key Newcomers: Brad Calipari, BJ Maxwell, Justin Miller**
Lineup:
** Justin Miller is still seeking a waiver from the NCAA to become eligible immediately
Outlook: The NCAA, otherwise known as the “No Cool Adult Association”, is at it again folks…
Early this September, Lewis A. Kaplan effectively stiff armed the NCAA when it asked for evidence in the college basketball corruption trial, but make no mistake about it - Mark Emmert and his Death Star still rule the college hoops galaxy as a full fledged autocracy. No better example exists than the annual APR requirements, an outdated system geared toward punishing schools for poor academic achievement, but unnecessarily dings programs for high roster turnover (additional context can be found here). Anyone who follows the college sports landscape knows the transfer rate is skyrocketing, and with the old APR requirements still in tact, Detroit was punished for its revolving turnstile of players, a clear byproduct of shaky program stability pre Mike Davis.
While all that appears to be changing, the near term doomsday is still real for those of us who want to see Antoine Davis do a Steph Curry impression in the NCAA tournament. Here’s to hoping Davis sticks around for his junior season because the NCAA has ruled Detroit ineligible for postseason play during the 2019-20 season.
A damn shame it is because Davis has this thing rolling in the Motor City. Few coaches have the luxury of infusing their new program with a generational talent in year 1, but such is the case when a treasure grows up in your own household. That aforementioned Steph Curry comparison is far from hyperbole, as little Davis is well on his way to shattering his records.
While I accurately predicted Davis would take home Freshman of the Year honors last season, I deserve to sit in timeout for putting guys like Karmari Newman and Zaynah Robinson on the All Newcomer team over him.
I mean, what are these shots...
Davis will now have a target on his back, as unorthodox defensive treatments will become the norm. Davis is a willing distributor, but he’ll have to place even more trust in his teammates than he did a year ago. With impending double teams likely to force Davis to give up the rock early and often, he may find a safety valve in Brad Calipari. As hard as it is to take John Calipari’s son seriously as a legitimate contributor on a Division-1 basketball team, the dude can flat out shoot it.
Returners Willy Isiani and Marquis Moore, along with Abilene Christian grad transfer BJ Maxwell, offer three more shooting outlets for Davis to find on the perimeter, while Chris Brandon will do damage as a rim runner, pick-n-roll diver and glass crasher offensively.
Surrounding Davis with a stable of shooters is necessary, but shoring up the defensive cracks that were exposed last year is of equal importance this offseason. The Titans have been historically bad defensively the last four years, most notably the last two seasons of the Bacari Alexander era predating Davis’ arrival. With no strength up front, Davis resorted to a downy soft zone that was obliterated on the offensive glass.
The overreliance on zone made it impossible to consistently corral opposing misses, and Horizon forwards had a field day getting easy stick backs off missed first shots.
For the record, I’m putting the majority of these defensive shortcomings on the roster Davis inherited, not Davis himself. But, unless the NCAA approves Louisiana transfer Justin Miller’s waiver, I don’t see that issue being resolved in 2020. Miller seems out of place on the basketball court, an NFL linebacker prototype who looks awkward in gym shorts and tennis shoes. Miller’s brute size up front would be a refreshing remedy to last year’s defensive deficiencies, but his fate still lies in the NCAA hands.
Bottom Line: This projection feels low with a generational superstar like Davis spearheading the offense, but the defensive concerns are too much to ignore. The Miller eligibility ruling will be a major domino, as his presence alone could cover up many other interior crevices. The gap between 4th and 8th place as it currently projects is minuscule, so the Titans could easily vault into the top-5 if Davis is able to repair some of the defensive cracks.
9. IUPUI
Key Returners: Jaylen Minnett, Grant Weatherford, Elyjah Goss
Key Losses: Camron Justice, Evan Hall, DJ McCall
Key Newcomers: Marcus Burk, Jamil Jackson, Zo Tyson, Isaiah Williams
Lineup:
Outlook: Jason Gardner, the former Indianapolis High School phenom and Arizona standout, is officially out at IUPUI after being arrested on suspicion of operating a vehicle while intoxicated this summer. Shortly after his resignation, the IUPUI athletic department *promoted* associated head head coach Bryon Rimm II to first chair - at least, for now. Rimm, who holds a decade of head coaching experience from his tenure at Prairie View A&M (2006-2015), will now operate with the interim tag this season.
Rimm will have his hands tied by a roster devoid of two program pillars in DJ McCall and Evan Hall, a rugged tandem that maxed out their individual ability. Both were workhorses, relentless on the glass and unflappable in their effort defensively. Hall’s tight end frame at 6’7 230 pounds made him an effective space eater inside and McCall’s limitless versatility defensively earned him Defensive Player of the Year honors last season. While they were scrappy on the offensive side of the ball, the combined on / off figures below reveal where their true value lied last season:
As disruptive as that twofer was defensively, don’t gloss over the loss of Ahmed Ismail, a 7-1 260 pound Egyptian enforcer who owned the offensive glass. Since Camron Justice and Jaylen Minnett were the only polished scoring options at Gardner’s disposal last season (both of whom endured season long shooting slumps), the Jags routinely called a 4-man blitz on the offensive glass. Known as a long range driller, Minnett went cold from distance last year, perhaps due to the increased workload in the ball handling and playmaking domains. He’s vastly overqualified to continue coming off the bench as a sub, so look for Rimm to thrust him into the starting lineup from the get go.
Jamil Jackson (former JUCO All-American and high octane scorer) and Marcus Burk (former Chris Clemons sidekick at Campbell and 3-point assassin) will come to Minnett’s aid this year. Collectively, the Minnett, Burk and Jackson triage form what might be the Horizon’s most feared 3-point marksmen, but open shots may be few and far between with little to no dynamic creator to be found on the roster. Grant Weatherford is more of a game manager, but I’d wager he and Minnett collaborate in the offensive initiation duties.
With the strength of the roster slowly tilting toward the perimeter, Rimm will have to open up the offense to create spacing for the guards, a demonstrative shift from the bully ball played under Gardner last season. This also sets up for a natural transition back to Rimm’s SWAC roots, a conference oasis for defensive pressure and chaos. While Rimm lost his mojo in his final two seasons at Prairie View, his last two teams checked in at 4th and 6th nationally in defensive turnover rate. I wouldn’t bet on Rimm turning up the pressure cooker all the way to level 11 this year, but definitely be on the lookout for doses of half-court trapping schemes.
Elyjah Goss and Isaiah Williams, two bonafide athletes at 6’7, could flourish in such a system, with limitless freedom to fly all over the floor. Jakoby Kemp and Brandon Kenyon are the lone incumbent big men, but there’s a surplus of new bodies reinforcing the frontline. Colorado State import Zo Tyson could make the biggest impact, but he’s carries some inherent risk after missing the entire 2017-18 campaign with an injury.
Bottom Line: With an interim coach and an unclear identity, it’s just tough to be bullish on the Jags 2019-20 outlook. Cracking the upper echelon of the Horizon standings will require a demonstrative effort from one of the newcomers, and while Burk and Jackson are potent long range drillers, there’s too many other gaps lingering for Rimm to make any major headway in his return to the head coaching ring.
Tier 3
10. Cleveland State
Key Returners: Kash Thomas, Jaalam Hill, Algevon Eichelberger
Key Losses: Tyree Appleby, Rashad Williams, Stefan Kenic, Seth Millner
Key Newcomers: Tre Gomillion, Torrey Patton, Tyrese Potoma
Lineup:
Outlook: They say any press is good press, but Cleveland State basketball fans might call BS on that. I wonder what price I could’ve gotten six months ago on the Athletic writing a featured article on Cleveland State this summer… +10,000? +100,000?
The absurdity of what transpired with the Vikings basketball program this summer needs no further commentary. The circus has been transcribed through multiple media outlets, but in case you’ve had your head in the sand, get up to speed with this summary courtesy of Mid-Major Madness.
The Dennis Felton tornado wiped out nearly every remnant of the 2018-19 Cleveland State basketball team, leaving only a few survivors left to tell the tale. Jaalam Hill and Kash Thomas survived the whirlwind, the Vikings’ lone two upperclassmen last season and only notable contributors back from last year’s 10-21 squad. How new program director Dennis Gates plans to integrate the incumbents with the newcomers remains a mystery, but Hill and Thomas should both make the cut. Hill’s bounce and versatility at 6’7 bear a striking resemblance to the horde of wings Gates recruited at Florida State. Thomas is eyeing the starting point guard spot with Tyree Appleby no longer standing in his way, but he’ll have to fend off fierce competition from a deep crop of JUCO imports.
The highest rated of this bunch is Torrey Patton, a top-100 JUCO prospect per JUCORecruiting.com. The 6’5 Patton started his career at Akron, and is cited as a do-everything, multi-positional guard. Tre GoMillion and Tyrese Potoma skew more toward the combo guard prototype, both of whom could also crack the starting lineup from Day 1. Like Patton, GoMillion’s blessed with a big frame at 6’4, a physical makeup that Gates could morph into a useful defensive weapon. Potoma is a long range driller with a picturesque lefty stroke that extends well beyond the 3-point line, but he’s also an adept creator off the bounce. He’s got a lightning quick release, and opposing defenders will have to shadow him all over the floor to keep him from catching fire.
Gates won’t concern himself with last year’s shortcomings as he prioritizes installing his own system, but he can’t ignore the interior holes that emerged last season. Former DePaul transfer Al Eichelberger has the prerequisite size to carve out space in the paint, but he’s never been a highly productive rebounder. Gates will call upon Furman import Jalen Williams to help stop the bleeding inside, while continuing to develop the lanky Deante Johnson. The sheer lack of size is reason to believe Gates will lean heavily on a deep staple of guards to crank up the defensive pressure, reminiscent of how Florida State suffocates opposing offenses.
Bottom Line: Dennis Gates has been revered in basically every offseason article this summer, and he’s clearly earned his stripes as an understudy to Leonard Hamilton. Once he has an entire recruiting cycle to find tailor-made fits for his system, look out folks. Gates will have the Vikings back in the thick of the Horizon standings in 2-3 years time, but the 2019-20 campaign will be a guinea pig season, one that allows Gates to assess his new talent base for the future.