- Ky McKeon
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Jacob Davison, R Sr., Eastern Washington
Coach of the Year: Steve Smiley, Northern Colorado
Newcomer of the Year: Michael Steadman, R Sr., Montana
Freshman of the Year: Teiano Hardee, Fr., Sacramento State
Tier 1
1. Eastern Washington
Key Returners: Jacob Davison, Kim Aiken Jr., Ellis Magnuson, Jack Perry, Tanner Groves, Tyler Robertson, Casson Rouse, Jacob Groves, Austin Fadal
Key Losses: Mason Peatling, Tyler Kidd
Key Newcomers: Steele Venters (Redshirt), Victor Radocaj, Mutdung Bol, Isaiah Amato, Kaelan O’Neil
Lineup:
Outlook: The 2019-20 season was a wildly successful one for Shantay Legans and the Eastern Washington Eagles, minus a couple potholes along the way (i.e. losses at Idaho State and versus Idaho). EWU captured the Big Sky regular season title outright, its first share of a conference championship since 2015. Legans has cemented his program’s status as a perennial league contender and looks to have yet another roster capable of capturing the conference crown. Big Sky MVP Mason Peatling is gone, but the Eagles bring back nearly everyone else to help compete for a second consecutive first-place trophy.
Legans turned on the jets last year, ramping up the Eagles’ tempo to the 9th fastest offense in the country. His previous squads ranked 197th and 290th, respectively, in that same category in his first two seasons at the helm. The shift worked wonders, as EWU was one of the more exciting squads to watch last season and one of the better mid-major offensive teams in the country. Scoring in transition was a priority (particularly off the defensive glass) where the Eagles ranked 16th in the nation in eFG% -- ball movement, off-ball cutting, and three-point shooting were key pillars to EWU’s offensive attack and promise to be once again in 2020-21. Peatling’s absence certainly hurts EWU’s post scoring prowess, but Legans runs four guard lineups almost exclusively, and the Eagles have arguably the best backcourt in the Big Sky.
Jacob Davison and Kim Aiken form the nucleus of what should be another electric Eastern Washington attack. Davison earned 2nd Team All-Big Sky honors after ranking 4th in the league in scoring and 5th in usage. While not a fantastic outside shooter, Davison is deadly from the mid-range area and is very capable of creating his own shot or getting all the way to the tin.
Like most of his teammates, Davison is also an excellent passer, a key part of Legans’s spread offense that emphasizes unselfishness and constant cutting.
Aiken was a 3rd Team All-Big Sky member last season and fills the de facto 4-spot in the Eagles’ starting five. He has a wide frame at 6’7” 215 lbs. and is a matchup nightmare in the Big Sky with his ability to shoot from behind the arc, score on the block, or drive the lane. Last season Aiken ranked 3rd in the conference and 31st nationally in defensive rebounding rate, something that consistently helped jumpstart EWU’s transition attack. Defensively, Aiken is one of EWU’s very best and is versatile in his ability to matchup with several positions on the floor.
Perhaps the most important player this season for the Eagles is sophomore point guard Ellis Magnuson who will look to improve on a so-so freshman year after being thrown directly into the fire. Magnuson started every game for the Eagles in his first season in Cheney and that inexperience shown through on more than one occasion. This year, look for Magnuson to approach the game with more maturity and poise – he has all the talent in the world to be an All-Conference level player, cut down past turnover issues, and use his thick frame to bully smaller lead guards.
Jack Perry, a sharpshooting senior, likely starts at the 2 after ranking 25th in the country in 3P% (44.4%) and 2nd in offensive rating. He acts like a magnet on the perimeter, pulling his man away from help situations. Casson Rouge, a walk-on who started seven games last season, and Austin Fadal, a 6’4” wing who redshirted in 2019-20, will likely be EWU’s primary backcourt reserves. Rouge is a quick combo guard who shot 40% from deep in Big Sky play; Fadal will look to bounce back from an objectively awful freshman season in 2018-19.
Replacing Peatling’s production will be no easy task, but 6’9” junior forward Tanner Groves has a lot to offer with his presumed increase in playing time. Groves scored 1.216 PPP on post-ups last season, good for the 98th percentile nationally – he’s a gifted finisher on the block and can create space effectively with his strength. Also, like Peatling, Groves can step outside and shoot a bit when called upon. Tanner’s brother Jacob Groves, yet another walk-on who received ample minutes in 2019-20, likely continues to fill a deeper reserve role this season. 6’6” wing Tyler Robertson should see plenty of minutes at the 4-spot spelling Aiken and/or T. Groves when necessary. Redshirt freshman Steele Venters could be an enticing wing sub with his 6’7” frame and ability to shoot it from downtown.
Legans has consistently brought in good talent from the recruiting path during his short tenure and this year is no exception. EWU’s four true freshmen all have potential to blossom into key contributors down the road. Victor Radocaj, a long lefty who can score from the perimeter or the post, could see immediate playing time given EWU’s thinner frontcourt rotation. Guards Mutdung Bol, Isaiah Amato, and Kaelan O’Neil will duke it out for minutes in a very crowded backcourt. Bol is the best scorer of the group, a guy who can create his own shot and make plays for others. O’Neil and Amato offer size and athleticism.
Eastern Washington had the league’s 4th best defense in 2020-21, which has certainly not been the norm in Cheney over the past decade-plus. EWU forces opponents to play slow, mixing in a token man press, a 1-2-2 trapping press, and a standard halfcourt 2-3 zone to change pace. The Eagles were fantastic at limiting three-point tries last season, ranking 19th nationally in 3PA rate allowed, and held their own in the paint with Peatling and Aiken acting as anchors. With a similar personnel in 2020-21, EWU should be comparable this season defensively.
Bottom Line: EWU is the heavy favorite this season in the Big Sky. The Eagles have two bona fide All-Conference studs in Davison and Aiken and a burgeoning sophomore point guard in Magnuson looking to take the next step. Legans looks to have the inside track towards getting his program back to the Big Dance for the first time since 2015.
2. Montana
Key Returners: Derrick Carter-Hollinger, Josh Vasquez, Kyle Owens, Eddy Egun, Mack Anderson
Key Losses: Sayeed Pridgett, Kendal Manuel, Timmy Falls, Jared Samuelson
Key Newcomers: Michael Steadman (San Jose State), Cameron Satterwhite (Northern Arizona), Cameron Parker (Sacred Heart), Josh Bannan, Brandon Whitney, Hunter Clarke, Robby Beasley, Darius Henderson (UMass Lowell)***
*** Henderson needs a waiver to be immediately eligible
Lineup:
Outlook: The Griz lost a ton of production from their 2018-19 Big Sky championship squad, so it wasn’t a huge surprise when they took a slight step back last season. Of course, Montana still finished top three in the Big Sky, something that’s nearly as certain as death and taxes year in and year out. Since 2004, the Griz have finished outside the Big Sky top three just three times, and Travis DeCuire appears to have the pieces this season to finish among the conference elite once again.
This will be one of the younger Griz squads we’ve seen in recent memory, at least from a returnee perspective. Of DeCuire’s five key returning players, four are sophomores, but each was at least given an opportunity to see the floor in 2019-20. DeCuire also adds three transfers from the DI level, another sort of oddity in Missoula – these three seniors will be relied upon to provide leadership and guide Montana’s younger players.
Offense last season ran through Sayeed Pridgett, the highest used player in the Big Sky and 1st Team All-Conference performer. Montana looked to get Pridgett the ball pretty much anywhere on the floor be it the post, wing, or top of the key. His absence, as well as fellow All-League guard Kendal Manuel’s, means we’re likely to see a shift in style this season.
There is no high-scoring, do-everything player on this roster like Montana’s had with Pridgett and Ahmaad Rorie and Michael Oguine of years past. This year’s squad will put up points by committee and likely be led by a different player on a given night. Sophomores Derrick Carter-Hollinger and Josh Vasquez are due for monumental leaps this season after earning significant playing time in their freshmen seasons. DCH was the Big Sky Freshman of the Year despite being one of Montana’s lowest-used players and averaging just 6.7 PPG. Rest assured, those stats are misleading – DCH can flat out play; he’s athletic, long, and capable of scoring off the bounce, in the post, or spotting up from deep.
DCH should be one of the focal points of Montana’s offense this season, and on the other end expect him to once again provide consistent shot-blocking and rebounding.
Vasquez is a guy I pegged to explode last season in his freshman year – while he did play often, he played far more off the ball than I expected. Turnovers and poor shot selection inside the arc plagued Vasquez last year, but he did shoot 36.3% from deep and showed flashes of his offensive potential throughout 2019-20. With Cameron Parker coming to town, Vasquez should remain largely off the ball, a role he appears to be better suited for with his quickness and shooting ability. Defensively, Vasquez is one of the stickier on-ball defenders in the Big Sky, ranking 2nd last season in the conference in steal rate.
Parker’s arrival from Sacred Heart is enormous for a Montana team in need of a point guard. Parker was an NEC All-Rookie team member in 2018-19 and was on track to be named to an All-Conference squad last year prior to going down with a broken ankle mid-way through the season. Parker set the NCAA record for assists in a single game last season, dishing out a whopping 24 against a non-DI opponent on December 1st – he is a pass-first table setter and also a player capable of scoring / creating his own offense when needed. In 2018-19, Parker ranked 8th in the country in FT rate – he gets to the foul line with regularity, something that absolutely cannot be said about this Grizzlies team last season.
With Parker from the transfer wire comes Michael Steadman out of San Jose State and Cameron Satterwhite out of Big Sky rival Northern Arizona. Steadman led the Spartans in scoring and rebounding two seasons ago and promises to be a source of offense on the block for the Griz all season. Montana didn’t have a true post scorer last season – Pridgett was actually used in the majority of its post-up situations – so his presence should be highly impactful. Satterwhite has already proven to be a reliable Big Sky wing after coming over from Loyola Chicago a few seasons ago. He shot 38.7% from downtown with the Lumberjacks and is another player who can score off the bounce with his athleticism.
The remaining frontcourt rotation will consist of sophomore Kyle Owens, junior Mack Anderson, and freshman Josh Bannan. Owens was another rookie last year who received ample playing time – he should be due for a nice uptick in production in his second collegiate season and give the Griz a stretch option at the 4. Anderson is a traditional back-to-the-basket big who will provide shot-blocking in a reserve role behind Steadman. Bannan, an Australian combo forward, has a nice lefty shooting touch and range out beyond the three-point line.
In the backcourt, returning sophomore Eddy Egun will look to bounce back from a dreadful 2019-20 season in which he was extremely inefficient. Egun holds promise as a spot-up shooter and wing rebounder. Freshmen Brandon Whitney, Hunter Clarke, and Robby Beasley will all vie for minutes in their first seasons – DeCuire isn’t afraid to play his newbies so each could certainly see the floor consistently before the year is over. Beasley is the best of the bunch, a 3-star SG who carries the reputation as a scorer and creator offensively. Whitney is a very poised and talented point guard who could be good down the road, while Clarke is an Aussie wing with a gorgeous shot and a quick release.
DeCuire’s style tends to bend to his personnel and not the other way around like other coaches across the country. Last year the Griz ranked 345th in 3PA rate despite shooting a 38th-best 36.4% from deep. With added shooters on this year’s roster and no Pridgett or Manuel, Montana’s 3PA rate will almost certainly increase this season. Steadman and DCH will also provide the Griz with potential hi-lo looks and make them a dangerous inside-out squad to be reckoned with. Montana’s 347th ranked offensive rebounding rate – by far the worst in DeCuire’s tenure – should also improve drastically in 2020-21.
Defensively, the Griz should be solid once again after ranking 3rd in the Big Sky in adjusted efficiency last year. Montana forced teams to play isolation ball, took away the three-point line at one of the nation’s best rates, and took care of business on the glass. One constant that seems to plague DeCuire squads every year will be FT rate on this end – DeCuire has never had a team at Montana rank in the top 300 in the country in FT rate allowed in six seasons at the helm.
Bottom Line: Don’t let Pridgett’s graduation fool you into thinking Montana is in for a down year. The Griz have plenty of talent and a nice mix of experience / burgeoning potential with which to fight for the Big Sky title.
3. Northern Colorado
Key Returners: Bodie Hume, Sam Masten, Kur Jockuch, Matt Johnson II, Tre’Shon Smoots, Rodrick McCobb
Key Losses: Jonah Radebaugh, Kai Edwards, Trent Harris
Key Newcomers: Daylen Kountz (Colorado), Greg Bowie II (UT Rio Grande Valley), Malcolm Little (Redshirt), Marque English II (JUCO), Bryce Kennedy, Jamel Melvin, Theo Hughes
Lineup:
Outlook: In his curtain call season in Greeley, CO former head coach Jeff Linder led the Northern Colorado Bears to their best season in the KenPom era. UNC finished 2nd in the Big Sky at 15-5 (for the second straight year) but was BY FAR the best team in the league from an analytical standpoint. Led by Jonah Radebaugh, the Big Sky DPOY who made Bears fans quickly move on from Jordan Davis, UNC looked poised to crash the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2011. Alas, COVID-19 hit, Radebaugh graduated, and Linder bolted for the Wyoming job. My how things have changed.
Steve Smiley steps into the head coaching role in Linder’s stead. Smiley coached at the JUCO level for six seasons before joining Randy Rahe’s staff at Weber State for two years and Jeff Linder’s staff in Greeley the past four. His presence at the helm should give the program a sense of consistency, and with a good crop of returners coming back plus the addition of a couple impact transfers UNC should be competing right back near the top of the Big Sky in 2020-21.
For the second consecutive season UNC must replace its do-everything point guard. Unlike in 2019-20 the transition to the “next man up” doesn’t appear to be a smooth one. Colorado transfer Daylen Kountz and redshirt sophomore Tre’Shon Smoots are the most likely candidates to run point for the Bears this season – Kountz started five games for Colorado last year and played in every contest while Smoots shot the ball well for UNC in limited minutes. Kountz should find life in the Big Sky more preferable than the Pac 12 and has a real opportunity to shine outside the shadow of McKinley Wright. He’ll have big shoes to fill, as Radebaugh did so much for this team his senior season.
Junior wing Bodie Hume will be the team’s go-to scorer and leader this year – he was an All-Big Sky 2nd Team member last season and is a high-volume shooter and scorer. Hume thrives in the pick-n-roll, an action UNC ran at the 5th highest rate in the country last season, feasting off pops to the three-point line as the defense collapses on the ball handler.
Defensively, Hume will guard the opposing team’s 4-man on most occasions; despite standing just 6’6” and being listed as a guard, Hume led the Bears in blocked shots in 2019-20.
Offensive style shouldn’t change much with the coaching shift. UNC should still be an offense heavily reliant on the three-ball after taking the highest rate of threes in the Big Sky and 28th highest in the country last season. The Bear offense led the Big Sky in adjusted efficiency thanks to marksman-like shooting and excellent shot selection. Per Dribble Handoff, UNC ranked 6th in the country in quality shot selection (they took a lot of shots near the rim and from behind the arc). Kountz and Smoots will be the primary benefactors of the ball screen offense, while Hume will continue to look to eat off rolls, and knockdown shooters Sam Masten and Mark Johnson II will continue to light the nets on fire on spot-ups.
Masten and Johnson II will compete with UT Rio Grande Valley transfer Greg Bowie II for starts in the backcourt. The pair of returners each shot over 40% from three last season while Bowie II is the better all-around scorer. Redshirt freshman Malcolm Little will try to crack the rotation, but he’s behind quite a few bodies heading into the year.
JUCO transfer Marque English II promises to be a factor in the wing rotation (and may even see time at the “4”). He’s a jack-of-all-trades sort of player, a guy who can shoot the three, play defense, rebound, and score. English II could supplant returning wing Rodrick McCobb for minutes this season.
Steady frontcourt presence Kur Jockuch returns to man the 5-spot. He’s a classic “know your role” big man who grabs boards (10th in both OR% and DR% in the league in ’19-20) and shoots layups. Last season Jockuch ranked 7th in the country in 2PFG% thanks to his preference for only taking “sure” shots – a whopping 81.2% of his total FGA in 2019-20 came at the rim per Hoop-Math. Freshmen Bryce Kennedy, Jamel Melvin, and Theo Hughes will battle for frontcourt minutes on a team that lacks forward depth. Kennedy is a highly regarded recruit out of Texas, but he might be a year or two away from contribution. Melvin should be an immediate boost to UNC’s shot-blocking and rebounding efforts – his potential is off the charts, and he’s capable of developing into an All-League level player. Hughes is a 7-foot Brit who adds much needed size to the roster.
Similar to the offensive end, it’s likely we see consistency on the defensive side of the ball with Smiley’s promotion to head coach. Under Linder the Bears played an aggressive half-court man that focused on taking away the three-point line at all costs. UNC led the nation in 3PA rate allowed and led the Big Sky in 3PFG% defense in 2019-20, but its interior was a little soft in the middle. The Bears also force opponents to play in isolation – last season they led the country in defensive assist rate, meaning teams weren’t getting many catch-and-shoot looks. UNC was also a top-30 defensive rebounding team last year and was one of the best in the nation at playing without fouling. All of those attributes made for an intimidating defensive squad. Radebaugh’s graduation definitely hurts on this end of the floor, but the Bears should still be one of the better defensive teams in the conference in 2020-21.
Bottom Line: We don’t know yet if Steve Smiley can lead UNC to a successful season in the Big Sky, but there’s enough evidence to suggest he can. Smiley was very successful at the JUCO level, sat on the bench of a championship squad at Weber, and learned from one of the best mid-major coaches in the land in Linder the last three years. If point guard play is solid the Bears have a real shot to win the league and punch a ticket to the Big Dance.
Tier 2
4. Southern Utah
Key Returners: John Knight III, Harrison Butler, Maizen Fausett, Dre Marin, Ivan Madunic
Key Losses: Dwayne Morgan, Andre Adams, Cameron Oluyitan, Jakolby Long, David N’Diaye
Key Newcomers: Tevian Jones (Illinois), Courtese Cooper (LSU), Aanen Moody (North Dakota), Kingsley Box, Martel Williams, Jason Spurgin, Nick Fleming (JUCO), Marquis Moore (Detroit)***
*** Moore needs a waiver to be immediately eligible (Barnes does too, but he won’t play much either way)
Lineup:
Outlook: Southern Utah finished 9-11 in the Big Sky for the second straight season, but if you think the Thunderbirds didn’t improve, woo buddy you need to reassess how you evaluate a team. It’s true the T-Birds’ conference record didn’t change, but Todd Simon’s crew finished a whopping 112 spots higher in KenPom in 2019-20 than it did in the season prior. Simon has done what no man thought possible – he has brought in elite talent to Cedar City, Utah, enough to start competing for league titles. SUU certainly underperformed from an expectation perspective in conference play last season, but the T-Birds were riddled with injuries throughout the year. Significant talent walks out the door from 2019-20, but Simon has reloaded once again with two Power 6 transfers and a solid freshman class.
Simon has started to build a culture at SUU, one predicated on toughness and, specifically, rebounding and defending. The Thunderbirds were the 19th best defensive rebounding team in the nation last season and were easily the Big Sky’s top defensive squad. SUU’s elite athleticism and length at nearly every position overwhelmed conference foes – the Thunderbirds destroyed teams trying to run in transition, took away the outside shot, and defended one-on-one as good as any team in the mid-major ranks. That athleticism and length will be there once again this season, so expect to see SUU among the top-ranking defensive squads in the Big Sky at year’s end.
The other side of the ball wasn’t too pretty, and hasn’t ever been at SUU under Simon. The T-Birds severely lacked three-point shooting last season, forcing them to become one-trick ponies and drive the ball to the rim or pound it on the block every possession. SUU ranked 14th nationally in percentage of shots attempted near the rim in 2019-20 and 2nd in the Big Sky in free throw rate – both those stats are good indicators of successful offense, but the shooting needs to be there for the T-Birds to take the next step towards conference title contention. As has been the case the last four years, look for SUU to prioritize running in transition, where its stable of athletes have the upper hand on Big Sky opponents nine times out of ten.
So before getting too deep in the woods here, let’s hit that key point from the preceding paragraph. Did SUU get better at shooting this offseason? Yes, it appears that they did. Cameron Oluyitan was SUU’s best three-point shooter last season, so his departure stings, but the T-Birds bring back sharpshooter Dre Marin and add North Dakota transfer Aanen Moody, JUCO transfer Nick Fleming, and freshman Kinglsey Box to the fold. Marin got to play more off the ball last season with the arrival of John Knight III, a welcome event with his ability to hit the long-ball. On 315 career attempts, Marin has cashed 36.8% of his three-ball tries. Moody is a 38.2% career 3P shooter on 204 attempts and should be a regular in Simon’s backcourt rotation this year. Fleming was a 41% three-point shooter in JUCO last year and doubles as a capable table setter and ball handler offensively. Box may not see too much run this season, but he has good size for a guard and a sweet stroke from distance.
Illinois transfer Tevian Jones could also be a source of shooting for the T-Birds – in fact, Jones could potentially be this team’s best player. A former 4-star recruit, Jones never received consistent playing time with the Illini, but he should be given the green light in Cedar City. He’s super long, super athletic, and can play either the 3 or 4. As a caveat, I thought Jakolby Long was going to be a stud for this program last season and that didn’t turn out so well – but I’m willing to risk my reputation again for a talent like Jones!
SUU’s best returning player, John Knight III, will likely step full-time into the starting point guard role after starting half the games last year. Knight was the 6th highest used player in the league last season and is all drive, all the time. He attempted just 13 threes in 2019-20 but ranked 2nd in the Big Sky in FT rate, using his impressive athleticism, speed, and length to get wherever he wanted on the floor. Knight’s athleticism also makes him a terrifying on-ball defender, as the helpless Idaho point guard realized below.
Knight has all the tools to be an All-Conference level player this season, he just needs to improve his decision making and remember to slow down every once in a while.
Returning with Knight in the backcourt is Harrison Butler, a 3/4 tweener who acted as a super-sub during his sophomore season. Butler is arguably the best perimeter defender on the squad and is a dangerous slashing threat on the offensive end. He and Jones will likely compete for a spot in the starting five.
Up front, Simon brings back junior Maizen Fausett and senior Ivan Madunic. Fausett is a terrific rebounder (top eight in rate on both ends of the floor in the Big Sky last season), decent shot blocker, and floor stretcher. He runs the floor and passes very well, perfect for SUU’s uptempo style. Look for him to be a staple in Simon’s starting five all season. Madunic sat out with injury last season; he’s a stretch forward who can protect the rim, a valuable frontcourt sub.
LSU transfer Courtese Cooper will bolster the SUU frontcourt and compete for starts at the 5. He put up gaudy rebounding and shot blocking numbers with the Tigers in limited minutes and, like Fausett, can run the floor in transition. Freshman center Jason Spurgin, Box’s fellow Australian, is a skinny, talented 5 who can shoot, pass, and put it on the deck.
Stocky freshman guard Martel Williams could find his way into the SUU backcourt rotation with his strength and college-ready frame. He’ll be your typical “bully ball” style of guard who can shove his opponent all the way to the rim without breaking a sweat. Detroit transfer Marquis Moore would also be a factor in the wing rotation if he’s able to secure a waiver – like others on the SUU roster, Moore is a gifted driver and a so-so outside shooter.
Bottom Line: Talent-wise SUU can stack up with just about any team in the Big Sky this season. Simon has yet to prove he’s able to compete near the top of the league, but he’s also never had a fully healthy team with this talent level. The Thunderbirds should be the best defensive team in the league once again this year, the question will be if they can improve upon an offense that ranked just 7th in conference play and 240th in the country.
5. Portland State
Key Returners: Ian Burke, Kyle Greeley, Trey Wood
Key Losses: Holland Woods, Matt Hauser, Alonzo Walker, Sal Nuhu, Rashaad Goolsby, Lamar Hendrick, Chris Whitaker, Markus Golder
Key Newcomers: James Scott (Temple), Elijah Hardy (Washington), Charles Jones (Utah), Khalid Thomas (Arizona State), Amari McCray (Pacific), John Hall (Evansville), Paris Dawson, Kiimani Holt, Jaden Nielsen-Skinner
Lineup:
Outlook: The Vikings finally hit their stride in the last month of 2019-20, rattling off six straight wins to end the season. Barret Peery had to integrate three key transfers into his uptempo system, an endeavor that always takes a little time to completely gel. PSU finished 4th in the Big Sky, Peery’s best finish in his three seasons at the helm, and looked poise to make a run in the Big Sky postseason tournament prior to cancellation. This year Peery will once again have a roster laced with talent; the only problem is just about everyone on the team is new. Introducing six transfers to the fold is always a challenge no matter the season, but it’s especially difficult in 2020-21 where everything is ruled by COVID-19. The Vikings have been especially affected by the pandemic, as they, along with Portland, are essentially the only two DI schools unable to fully practice as of late October. Peery said this in an article form KPTV.com:
“So it has been frustrating because literally everybody in America is allowed to practice right at the Division One level except for us and Portland from what I know,” said PSU Head Men’s Basketball Coach Barret Peery.
He added on the Viking Podcast that he met a bunch of his new players for the very first time in October, a crazy notion when considering his squad will be extra reliant on that new talent to win games this season.
Before getting into the slew of newcomers, let’s quickly touch on three returners, Ian Burke, Kyle Greeley, and Trey Wood. Burke and Greeley will serve in the backcourt rotation while Wood will compete for minutes up front. Burke, a former Seattle Redhawk, is primarily a perimeter shooter; Greeley is a versatile wing who can play multiple spots on the floor. Wood was hampered by injuries last season and limited to just 14 games. Peery thinks he can have a real impact on the squad this season.
If Peery is somehow able to get all of his newcomers to quickly mesh into his system, this is going to be one dangerous basketball team. PSU is littered with talent highlighted by three Pac-12 transfers, an AAC transfer, a WCC transfer, and an MVC transfer. Of the six DI newbies, look for Temple import James “Monty” Scott, Utah transfer Charles Jones, and Arizona State transfer Khalid Thomas to have the biggest impacts. All three are potential All-Conference players this season.
Scott averaged 17.3 PPG for Kennesaw State his freshman year, earning A-Sun All-Rookie honors and ranking 3rd in the league in scoring. He had more than a couple scoring outbursts as a key sub for the Temple Owls and seems poised to lead the Vikings in scoring this season. Jones was a two-time NJCAA All-American and the 2018 NJCAA DI Player of the Year prior to transferring to Utah. Like Scott, he’s a scoring guard who should put up gaudy numbers in the Big Sky. Thomas, a College of Southern Idaho alum like Jones, was the #2 JUCO recruit in the country at one point, leading him to sign with Chris Beard down at Texas Tech. He never played for the Raiders, but rather opted to take his talents back to CSI for one more year of JUCO ball before heading to Arizona State. Thomas will play the 4 and provide floor spacing with his ability to fill it up from behind the arc.
Pacific transfer Amari McCray, Washington transfer Elijah Hardy, and Evansville transfer John Hall should all have major impacts on the PSU lineup this year as well. McCray started 22 games for Pacific last season, putting up big-time rebounding rates on both ends of the floor and blocking shots like it was his job. McCray is a big 6’9” 265 lbs., a post-man who can take up space and provide reliable scoring on the block. Hardy averaged 28.3 MPG for the Huskies the last three games of the season and should be PSU’s point guard when the year opens against his former team on November 25th. Hall was a regular starter at Evansville; he’s a versatile forward who can rebound, shoot, and play the 3, 4, or even small-ball 5.
Peery’s three freshmen, Paris Dawson, Kiimani Holt, and Jaden Nielsen-Skinner (redshirt), all have potential to be key players for the Vikings down the road. Dawson appears to be a future leader of this program and could even see reps at point this year behind Hardy. Holt is a strong wing who attacks the rim hard and likes pushing the pace in transition – perfect for the PSU system. Nielsen-Skinner, aka “Skinny”, is a pass-first point guard who Peery seems very high on.
I’ve hinted at Peery’s system a few times because it really is one of the more distinct ones in college basketball. While many teams tend to fluctuate year-over-year in what they do, PSU has been steady under Peery. On offense, the Vikings play fast (2nd fastest offense in the Big Sky) and crash the glass with a fervor (#1 in OR% in the Big Sky, 6th in the country). Under Peery PSU has ranked 6th, 1st, and 17th in the country in offensive rebounding rate, which should stay consistent this season with guys like McCray coming to town. Transition dominates PSU’s scoring preference, as does (obviously) second chance opportunities off the boards. The Vikings do have a little more shooting than they did last year, so this year’s offense could be even more potent than 2019-20 despite the loss of Boo Boo Woods.
Defensively, PSU gets in your jock – last season the Vikings pressed at the highest rate in the country (42.8% of possessions per Synergy). This aggressive style of play leads to turnovers, but it also leads to easy buckets. PSU was not a good defensive team last season, ranking 7th in the Big Sky and bottom-50 nationally per KenPom. Over-eagerness on the offensive glass led to the Vikings getting crushed in transition – only two teams in the country allowed more transition opportunities than PSU in 2019-20. Similarly, over-eagerness to get out on the break led to the Vikings getting smoked on the defensive glass. Somehow one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation was also one of the worst defensive rebounding teams – PSU ranked 347th in DR% in 2019-20. Peery is unlikely to change his team’s aggressive style, but it’s worth noting this system is either boom or bust on a night-to-night basis.
Bottom Line: Portland State has one of the most talented rosters in the Big Sky this season but lack of early practice due to COVID could cause the Vikings to come slow out of the gates. Keep an eye on PSU early in the season and don’t be surprised if they’re light years better in February and March than they are in November.
6. Montana State
Key Returners: Jubrile Belo, Amin Adamu, Borja Fernandez, Devin Kirby, Finn Fleute, Caleb Bellach
Key Losses: Harald Frey, Mychael Paulo, Zeke Quinlan, Ladan Ricketts
Key Newcomers: Xavier Bishop (UMKC), Abdul Mohamed (North Texas), Mike Hood (JUCO), Bilal Shabazz (JUCO), Nick Gazelas (JUCO), Kellen Tynes, Tyler Patterson
Lineup:
Outlook: Danny Sprinkle exceeded expectations in his first season at the helm of his alma mater. The Bobcat legend led Montana State to its best KenPom finish since 2010, two impressive wins at UNCG and against South Dakota State in the non-con slate, and a respectable 10-10 in Big Sky play. Perhaps most intriguing about Sprinkle’s future at the program is his ability to bring in high-level talent. The Bobcats relied heavily on JUCO imports last season and bring in a wealth of talent from the transfer wire in 2020-21. Point guard Harald Frey, one of the best players in school history, has graduated, but MSU promises to be an even better team that it was in 2019-20.
Montana State’s identity changed when Sprinkle replaced Brian Fish. Under Fish the Bobcats were a brutal defensive team for five seasons, finishing in the bottom-50 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency ratings four times. In Fish’s final season (2018-19), MSU was 346th nationally in Adj. DE, making them one of the ten worst defensive squads in the country. Its offense was incredibly fun to watch with Tyler Hall and Frey, but there was a firm cap on winning with how anemic its defense was. Sprinkle flipped the script when he arrived on campus. MSU finished 5th in the Big Sky in Adj. DE last season thanks to its ability to control the defensive glass, shut down transition and slow-down opposing teams with its 2-3 and 1-3-1 zone looks. New personnel also helped on this end, as Sprinkle recruits like Jubrile Belo, Amin Adamu, and Mychael Paulo immediately increased the roster’s size, versatility, and athleticism.
Offense went the other way under Sprinkle. MSU finished 10th in the Big Sky in Adj. OE, the lowest in school history since 2015. A severe lack of shooting, careless ball handling by everyone not named Harald Frey, and a disinterest in the offensive glass contributed to the Bobcats’ inability to consistently put points on the board. Frey was the catalyst of last year’s attack, so finding a suitable replacement for him should be Sprinkle’s number one action item heading into the year. MSU ran ball screens for Frey frequently, and looked to create space for its star guard when not playing through Belo on the block. Curiously, Frey’s offensive impact from an on/off standpoint wasn’t too striking (though the sample size of him being off the court is very small). Per Hoop Lens, MSU scored 0.94 PPP when Frey was on the floor versus 0.92 PPP when he sat. This bodes well for the prospects of being able to (at least mostly) replace Frey’s production.
UMKC transfer Xavier Bishop will take over point guard duties this year after sitting out in 2019-20. Bishop led the Kangaroos in scoring two straight seasons and was the 5th highest used player in the WAC in 2018-19. Despite standing just 5’8” Bishop is very hard to contain and stop on the offensive end – his quickness and creativity makes him a spectacular scorer from just about anywhere on the floor. To boot, Bishop has a good track record of limiting turnovers, something MSU needs after ranking 293rd in TO rate last season. The pick-n-roll game should also continue to be strong in Bozeman with Bishop handling the rock.
While Bishop will be the firestarter to the offense, Jubrile Belo will be the focus. Belo was named Big Sky Newcomer of the Year and given a spot on the All-Conference 3rd Team after turning in a productive sophomore season. He ranked #1 in the Big Sky and #6 in the country in FT rate and was an absolute nightmare to stop on the block. Belo’s strength, footwork, and ability to score with either hand makes him arguably the best post scorer in the league, and he’ll be on the shortlist for Big Sky POY in 2020-21.
Belo’s fellow returner and Englishman Amin Adamu will also be a primary source of scoring for the Bobcats after leading MSU and ranking 4th in the Big Sky in usage last season. Adamu poured in over 20 points on four separate occasions last year, but was also unfortunately prone to an off night or two. His quickness and athleticism make him an asset on both ends of the floor, but he still needs to improve upon his efficiency.
Returners Borja Fernandez, Devin Kirby, and Finn Fleute will form the primary frontcourt rotation alongside Belo. Fernandez is a stretch forward who turned in a solid freshman season, starting three games and shooting 37.2% from downtown. Kirby is a valuable big man who, when on the court with Belo, makes MSU incredibly difficult to score against in the paint. The 6’11” senior missed seven games last year plus the majority of an 8th due to injury and in those eight games MSU went just 3-5. He’s a glue guy whose true value transcends on-court stats. Fleute likely remains in a deeper bench role with the arrival of JUCO transfer Balil Shabazz. Shabazz has good size and is a much better athlete than Fleute – in JUCO last year he shot 37% from three while proving to be a menace running downhill in transition.
In the backcourt, top 125 JUCO prospect and Honorable Mention NJCAA All-American Mike Hood will join forces with Bishop, Belo, and Adamu to give the Bobcats an intimidating scoring starting unit. Hood set the College of Southern Idaho single-season scoring record last year, averaging 22.7 PPG. He’s a combo guard who can handle the ball and flat out score, and he’ll be one of the best newcomers in the Big Sky this season.
Newbies on the wing include North Texas transfer Abdul Mohamed, JUCO transfer Nick Gazelas, and freshman Tyler Patterson. Mohamed was a 3rd Team NJCAA All-American prior to transferring to UNT where he played sparingly. A versatile two-way player, look for Mohamed to get more of a shot at MSU and be a key part of the Bobcat rotation. Gazelas has terrible tats but a good-looking shot – he averaged 17.4 PPG in JUCO last year while shooting 38.5% from deep. Patterson is a 6’8” guard who’s money from outside the arc.
Rounding out the Bobcat backcourt rotation will be freshman Kellen Tynes and sophomore Caleb Bellach. Tynes is a promising defender and potential point guard of the future in Bozeman. After Bishop graduates this offseason, look for Tynes to take over. Bellach is a shooting wing who suddenly has stiff competition for playing time with all the incoming talent on the roster.
Bottom Line: It’s a strange phenomenon when a team loses its best player and yet is fully expected to be better the next season. Sprinkle has raised the talent level of this program in just 1.5 seasons and seems poised to build on a solid first year. The Bobcats have arguably the best frontcourt in the Big Sky and a suitable Frey replacement in the electric Xavier Bishop. I have this team 6th but it wouldn’t shock me to see them crack the top three when all is said and done.
7. Weber State
Key Returners: Kham Davis, Michal Kozak, KJ Cunningham, Donatas Kupsas
Key Losses: Jerrick Harding, Cody John, Tim Fuller, Israel Barnes, Judah Jordan
Key Newcomers: Isiah Brown (Grand Canyon), Dontay Bassett (Florida), Tavian Percy (New Mexico), David Nzekwesi (Denver), Seikou Sisoho Jawara (Loyola Marymount), Dillon Jones, Zahir Porter (JUCO)
*** Hunter and Carlson are DII transfers - they need waivers to be immediately eligible
Lineup:
Outlook: Wow this team was disappointing last season. Randy Rahe almost always has his Wildcats competing near the top of the Big Sky, so when he has two of the best players in the league in seniors Jerrick Harding and Cody John, you’d expect Weber State to fight for a conference title. Instead, Weber completely tanked (or ‘shit the bed’ for us more refined folks), finishing 8-12 in the Big Sky, good for a 9-seed in the conference tourney. I picked the Wildcats to win the league last season and the media picked them 3rd in the preseason poll. Oh how wrong we were. (Yes, to be fair this team had a lot of injury trouble, but I’m still going to complain about underperformance).
So what to do with the Cats in 2020-21? Harding and John are gone, as is promising freshman Tim Fuller, but Weber returns some talent from last year’s squad and brings in an impressive list of DI transfers. This will be one of the most talented teams in the Big Sky once again this season – can Rahe actually produce this time?
Shooting was a primary factor in Weber ranking 8th in the Big Sky in offense (that ranking is so inexcusable for who they had on the team – it’s like Weber was the UTSA of the Big Sky, a team with two high-scoring guards who still couldn’t win ball games – you can tell I haven’t gotten over this performance). The Cats shot just 30.2% from downtown last season yet led the Big Sky in FT%, a very odd statistical combination indeed. Rahe also slowed the tempo down to his normal historical pace a year after the Cats played at one of the fastest rates in the country in 2018-19. With the lack of shooting, Weber was even more reliant on Harding and John creating offense out of the pick-n-roll – the Cats always run a ton of ball screens, which should continue in 2020-21 despite the personnel change. Transition should still be a key factor for the Cats offensively despite their slower-than-average tempo, but the offensive glass may take a turn from what we’re used to seeing from Rahe-coached teams. Historically Rahe’s squads have ranked among the worst in the country in offensive rebounding rate – he prioritizes getting back on defense over glass crashing – but that could change with the arrival of some key newcomers.
Rahe’s transfers could very well be the heart and soul of his team this season. Weber brings in five DI transfers to the fold this year, each of whom has an opportunity to make a significant impact. Isiah Brown (Grand Canyon) and Seikou Sisoho Jawara (LMU) will compete for starts in the backcourt. Brown, who ironically will suit up for his third predominantly purple school, looked far more comfortable off the ball last season compared to when he was forced into the PG role at Northwestern. He’s a good shooter who can put the ball on the deck and work out of the pick-n-roll. While Brown isn’t near the scorer Harding or John were, he can be a consistent source of offensive production. Jawara started 15 games for the Lions last year as a freshman, showing off his immense shooting and ball handling potential. His lefty stroke is very smooth, and he moves well on the floor – incumbent starting PG KJ Cunningham will have serious competition from Jawara for starting honors this year. Cunningham was inefficient in his rookie season, but he definitely has the talent to improve in year two. He’s shifty and quick the ball in his hands and is an excellent defender on the other side of the ball.
On the wing, New Mexico transfer Tavian Percy will add versatility and athleticism alongside returning starter Kham Davis. Percy’s shooting ability will offset Davis’s total lack of shooting. Davis was a paltry 30.9% from deep last season and posted an 86.3 o-rating, far below what we’d expect from a Pitt transfer.
Up front, Dontay Bassett (Florida) and David Nzekwesi (Denver) add some serious muscle to a formerly soft forward corps. Rahe’s defense is predicated on taking away the three-ball at all costs, but that strategy quickly goes to hell if there’s no competent paint defender to deter penetration. Weber will have rim resistance in 2020-21 with the addition of Bassett and Nzekwesi. Bassett in particular can block shots and grab boards at a high rate – he should see an enormous spike in playing time after being a fringe role player at Florida. Nzekwesi had a bit of a letdown sophomore season but still put up a few gaudy stat lines. At 6’9” 240 lbs. Nzekwesi is an immovable object in the lane, a guy who will take up space in the middle of Weber’s defense.
Bassett and Nzekwesi could each start this season, competing with returners Michal Kozak and Donatas Kuspas for minutes up front. Kozak ranked 10th in the Big Sky in minutes last season and turned in a fine year highlighted by a 36% three-point clip in conference play, a decent block rate, and impressive post-up numbers. He’ll be a key factor in Rahe’s forward rotation all season. Kuspas went down with a season-ending knee injury in the second game of last season – when healthy, he can be a productive rotational piece, a player who can come in and space the floor from the 4-spot.
Weber’s two other newcomers this season are freshman Dillon Jones and JUCO transfer Zahir Porter. Jones has real potential to be a star for Weber over the next few years – he’s athletic, creative with the ball, and possesses college-ready size. Recruiting sites have Jones as a borderline 3-star recruit and label him consistently as a “point-forward”. Porter is a lanky, long combo guard who can shoot and score – it might be tough for him to find regular PT in a crowded Weber backcourt.
Bottom Line: Weber reloaded with a bevy of transfers in an effort to offset the graduation of their two stud guards. A deeper and (hopefully) fully healthy team should result in the Cats being able to compete near the top of the Big Sky standings as they’re historically accustomed to. Bassett and Nzekwesi will help solve interior defense issues, namely rim protection, defensive rebounding, and post-up defense. My PTSD refuses to let me pick them to win the league again, but rest assured this will be a much-improved and competitive Big Sky squad this season.
Tier 3
8. Sacramento State
Key Returners: Ethan Esposito, Bryce Fowler, Brandon Davis
Key Losses: Joshua Patton, Izayah Mauriohooho-Le’afa, Osi Nwachukwu, Chibueze Jacobs, James Bridges
Key Newcomers: Christian Terrell (UCSB), Deshaun Highler (JUCO), Samaad Hector (JUCO), Jalen Townsell (JUCO), Teiano Hardee, David Jones, Rick Barros III (Redshirt), Zach Chappell (San Jose State)
Lineup:
Outlook: Believe it or not last season was Brian Katz’s best from an analytical standpoint in his 12 years at the helm of Sacramento State. The Hornets exceeded expectations finishing 183rd in the country, per KenPom, after starting the season 262nd. Sac State’s 8-12 Big Sky record was a little misleading – the Hornets lost six games by five points or less, and some of those losses could be chocked up to free throw luck. Only one team in the country had opponents shoot a higher FT% against them last season – CSUS opponents shot a ridiculous 77.2% from the charity stripe over the course of the year.
Sac State’s two All-Conference performers, Joshua Patton and Izayah Mauriohooho-Le’afa, graduated this offseason, leaving the Hornets with question marks, particularly around scoring. Offense didn’t come easy for the Green & Gold – the Hornets were a terrible outside shooting team and relied on drives to the rim, Patton post-ups, and offensive rebounds to score points. Senior forward Ethan Esposito will be asked to take on much of the scoring load left behind by Patton. Esposito took the 7th highest percentage of his teams shots in the Big Sky while on the floor last season, showing off his ability to score on the block or even away from the basket behind the arc. Efficiency will be his biggest improvement point as he moves into a more starring role.
Bryce Fowler and Brandon Davis are the Hornets’ two other key returners, and both of whom should be in the mix for starting duties this season. Fowler is CSUS’s returning leading scorer, a long lefty wing who can score from all three levels and guard multiple spots on the other end. The 6’6” senior is Sac State’s most important player – he is the team’s returning leading scorer, leading passer, and second leading rebounder. Davis will start at point guard primarily out of necessity; he played a lot of minutes last season after coming over from UCSB, but he turned the ball over frequently and shot poorly from the field. Fowler can be a point-forward and handle the ball but there’s no other true PG currently eligible on this roster.
San Jose State import Zach Chappell could steal minutes at the point after being granted a waiver this October, but like Davis he’s struggled with shooting and turnovers over the first two years of his college career. Elijah McCullough and William FitzPatrick are better off the ball as shooting threats, plus neither is ready to handle major minutes (and FitzPatrick is a walk-on). Redshirt freshman Rick Barros III has intriguing potential and should fit somewhere in Katz’s backcourt – he can play all three guar spots, handle the rock, and shoot it from deep.
Freshman guard Teiano Hardee and JUCO transfer Deshaun Highler look to be surefire contributors in their first season in Sacramento. Katz called Hardee the best HS scorer he’s ever signed, and he has very good size for a guard at 6’5” 205 lbs. Highler, a former UTEP Miner, is the 99th ranked JUCO prospect in the country, a sharpshooter who knocked down 42% of his 3PA last year. He’ll fight for starts and also add to what should be a tough Hornet defensive unit.
JUCO transfer Jalen Townsell and UCSB transfer Christian Terrell should carve out roles in the wing rotation. Townsell spent a year at Nevada (but never played) prior to going the JUCO route last season. He can play multiple positions and brings athleticism and shooting to the fold. Terrell didn’t play much at UCSB – like Hardee he brings good size on the perimeter but it’s hard to predict how much he contributes.
Joining Esposito in the frontcourt will be Samaad Hector, a beast of a big man despite his relatively undersized frame. Hector averaged 18.0 PPG and 14.5 RPG at Lower Columbia JC last year and took home Defensive Player of the Year honors in his conference while shooting 42% from downtown. He’ll compete with junior forward Jordan Cooke-Harper, a long athlete who can block shots, for starting duties. Look for freshman David Jones to see run up front as well – he’s a gifted athlete who can also protect the rim.
Scoring isn’t going to get much easier for Sac State in 2020-21 despite the new blood coming in, so it’ll need to rely on defense to win ball games. Katz plays at one of the slowest offensive tempos in the country, so he’s already trying to muck the game up and limit possessions as much as possible. On defense, look for Sac State to continue denying three-point looks after ranking 8th nationally in 3PA rate allowed. The Hornets should also continue to be pesky on-ball defenders – they led the Big Sky and ranked 39th nationally in TO rate last year. Transition opportunities were also mostly stymied by Sac State last season, but post defense and fouling were its major weaknesses. The post defense issue could improve with the additions of Jones and Hector, and while it’s possible the foul rate still may be a problem, it’s HIGHLY unlikely opposing teams shoot 77.2% from the FT line in 2020-21.
Bottom Line: Sac State was better than advertised last season. This year is trickier to predict. On one hand the Hornets lose two All-League players but on the other they bring in some very real talent from the recruiting trail. From a Big Sky perspective, expect CSUS to finish right around the middle for the third straight year. From an analytical or power rating perspective, I’d expect this team to perform very similar or maybe just a hair worse than 2019-20.
9. Northern Arizona
Key Returners: Cameron Shelton, Luke Avdalovic, Isaiah Lewis, Nik Mains, Keith Haymon, Ajang Aguek
Key Losses: Brooks DeBisschop, Bernie Andre, Cameron Satterwhite, Ted McCree, Chris Bowling
Key Newcomers: Malcolm Porter (Portland), Jay Green (UNLV), Carter Mahaney, Dayton Harris, Wynton Brown, Carson Towt (Redshirt / Cal Baptist), Olgierd Dmochewicz
Lineup:
Outlook: Shane Burcar left no doubt as to whether the “interim” part of his head coaching title should be stripped away at the end of last season. Burcar took over for Jack Murphy after Murphy bolted to join Sean Miller’s staff at Arizona and exceeded all expectations. The Lumberjacks finished T-5th in the Big Sky after being picked 8th in the preseason, the school’s best finish since 2015. Burcar improved on a preseason KenPom rating of 309, ending the year 215, also the program’s best mark since 2015. Three starters depart from last season, but Burcar has his best player back in Cameron Shelton plus a promising core of role players and a pair of intriguing transfers. NAU may not be in the conversation for a Big Sky title in 2021, but the program is making great strides under Burcar’s leadership.
NAU was solid offensively last season – the Jacks handled the ball well, played at a slower-than-average tempo, and shot the ball well from the outside. The Jacks look to play inside-out, getting post touches in an effort to dish to cutters or kick to open shooters. Pretty much everyone on the roster can shoot the long-ball, making NAU a dangerous team to guard.
On the other side of the ball, the Jacks struggled last season, allowing far too many open outside looks and pretty much everything else to opposing teams. NAU ranked 317th in the nation in percentage of shots allowed near the rim and was consistently burned in transition in the open floor. A below average defensive perimeter shell and no rim protection to speak of contributed to the Jacks’ fealty on this end.
We should expect more of the same out of NAU this season on both ends of the floor – the Jacks bring in enough offensively from the recruiting trail to make up for the loss of Bernie Andre, Brooks DeBisschop and Cameron Satterwhite, but did little to address their defensive needs – in fact interior defense could be even worse this year unless redshirt freshman Carson Towt can make an immediate impact.
NAU’s catalyst offensively will once again be Camerson Shelton, a 3rd Team All-Big Sky selection last season who ranked 8th in the league in usage, 4th in minutes, 3rd in assist rate, 6th in FT rate, and 6th in 3P%. Shelton is a talented point guard who protects the rock as well as any lead guard in the mid-major realm. He’s a playmaker on offense, capable of creating shots for himself and others with his toughness, athleticism, and quickness. His primary improvement point this season will be shot selection – 40% of Shelton’s shot attempts last year came from the mid-range; he converted just 28% of those attempts.
Luke Avdalovic returns with Shelton in the backcourt; he’s a money spot-up shooter who’s a scorching 44.9% from three for his career on 254 attempts. Two years ago Avdalovic ranked 5th in the country in 3P% (49.3%), but managed a “measly” 38.7% clip from downtown last season. He’ll compete with and play alongside Portland transfer Malcolm Porter, a 6’4” combo guard who can shoot and score in spite of his very gross-looking shot. As an aside, it speaks volumes that Porter transferred away from Portland despite his father, Terry Porter, still manning the sidelines.
Freshmen Carter Mahaney and Dayton Harris will scrap for backup PG/SG minutes in their first seasons in Flagstaff. Mahaney has a highlight video out on YouTube dubbing him the Master of the Midrange, so he’s automatically my favorite player heading into 2020-21. Harris appears to be the quintessential table setter, a pass-first point guard headed for a successful mid-major career.
Sophomore wings Isaiah Lewis and Keith Haymon will look for increased minutes after playing sparingly a season ago. Both guys are long wings who add positional versatility on both ends of the floor. Haymon is the better outside shooter of the pair while Lewis is more of a slasher offensively. Former UNLV wing Jay Green will compete with Haymon and Lewis for a starting spot – it’s very likely Burcar goes with a 4-guard lineup given his roster makeup. Green wasn’t too productive in his lone season in Vegas, but he’s a good athlete who is talented enough to make a splash in the Big Sky.
Frontcourt minutes are very much of for grabs heading into the year. 6’8” junior Nik Mains likely starts at the 5, but he’s much more in the stretch-4 mold with the ability to shoot and inability to grab boards or block shots. Aforementioned RS FR Carson Towt could be the solution to NAU’s rim protection issues – he brings shot blocking potential and a burst of talent to an otherwise so-so forward corps. Sophomore Ajang Aguek and freshmen Wynton Brown and Olgierd Dmochewicz will round out the frontcourt rotation. Aguek is a combo forward capable of playing more minutes this season; Dmochewicz is a skinny 6’11” 200-pounder out of Poland who has all the makings of a future contributor – he can fill it up from deep and possesses deft touch on the block.
Bottom Line: I’m a believer in Shane Burcar but nothing about this year’s NAU team suggests they should be ranked higher than about the middle of the pack of the Big Sky. Offensively, this should still be a team to be reckoned with in conference play, but defense – especially in the paint – could be a real weakness.
Tier 4
10. Idaho State
Key Returners: Tarik Cool, Malik Porter, Austin Smellie
Key Losses: Chier Maker, Jared Stutzman, Chidi Udengwu, Coreyoun Rushin, Jaxon Edelmayer
Key Newcomers: Brayden Parker (Redshirt), Daxton Carr (Cal Poly), Gedeon Buzangu (JUCO), Noble Cooper (JUCO), Robert Ford III (JUCO), Emmit Taylor III (JUCO), Liam Sorensen, Kyle Karstetter, Zach Visentin, Austin Cook
Lineup:
Outlook: Idaho State went 8-22 (4-16) last year, but head coach Ryan Looney did an excellent job in his first season at the helm. The ISU program was left in shambles following the departure of long-time head coach Bill Evans and Looney was left to pick up the pieces with a handful of returners and essentially the College of Southern Idaho’s entire roster. Looney took ISU from a preseason KenPom rank of 337 and finished 291 – his Bengals took down Air Force on the road in the non-conference and scored a key win over Eastern Washington in Big Sky play. The Bengals may not finish higher than 10th this season in the conference, but they are absolutely headed in the right direction – Looney is bringing in talent and starting to build a culture in Pocatello.
ISU’s offense was actually pretty good last season – it ranked 6th in the Big Sky in adjusted efficiency, 3rd in offensive rebounding rate, and 3rd in FT rate. The Bengals’ focus was on getting the ball near the rim – majority of their shot attempts came from close to the bucket due to a general lack of shooting on the roster. Looney made it a point this offseason to bring in more shooting, so expect ISU to become a more perimeter-oriented team in 2020-21.
For the second straight season ISU ranked dead last in the Big Sky in defense, and last year it wasn’t even close. The Bengals were repeatedly destroyed near the rim, ranking 345th in the nation in percentage of shots allowed near the basket, killed on post-ups, killed in transition, and killed off the bounce. The one thing Looney’s squad did well was run shooters off the three-point line – ISU ranked 5th in the country in 3PA rate allowed, which would have been a tremendous stat had its interior defense not been so poor. Like he did with shooting, Looney appears to have tried to address this issue in the offseason. He brings in a bevy of frontcourt bodies capable of bolstering the paint.
Idaho State returns three of its best players from a year ago in Tarik Cool, Malik Porter, and Austin Smellie. All three players can score the basketball and will occupy the lion’s share of minutes on the floor at their respective spots. Cool was ISU’s highest used player in 2019-20 and ran the point; he has an unreal scoring burst ability as evidenced by his 41-point explosion in the second game of the season against Air Force in which he went a perfect 15/15 from the free throw line. Cool is an excellent outside shooter and excels out of the pick-n-roll – like his moniker suggests, he’s very much a “calm, cool, and collected” guard while on the floor.
Porter can also fill it up offensively, averaging 24.5 PPG over a four-game stretch in early February last season. He’s a very strong forward who can rebound, play defense, and power his way to the bucket against weaker defenders. While Porter held his own in the post, the arrival of frontcourt reinforcements has to make him happy, as he was oftentimes forced to play out of position in 2019-20.
Smellie earned a big bump in playing time his sophomore season, becoming a regular starter and evolving into one of ISU’s more reliable players. He can shoot it from deep and ranked 8th in the Big Sky in FT rate last season.
Looney adds five backcourt players to the fold this season and every one of them can hit the three-ball. JUCO transfers Noble Cooper and Robert Ford III should have the biggest impacts on the lineup this year; both will be right in the mix for a starting nod on opening day. Cooper is a top-125 JUCO prospect and one of the purest shooters I’ve ever seen on film – he averaged 27 PPG in his first three contests last year but later was forced to the pine with injury. Ford III averaged 23.3 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 7.8 APG, and 2.9 SPG while shooting 40% from beyond the arc for a JUCO squad that went 25-3. I feel like I really don’t have to say anything more to defend the fact he will be a factor for ISU this season. Look for Looney to use Ford III at the point, allowing Cool to play more off the ball letting his scoring ability really shine.
ISU’s three other guard newcomers, Austin Cook, Liam Sorensen, and Emmit Taylor III will provide depth in the backcourt. Taylor III and Cook are both money outside shooters; Sorensen is a big, skilled Danish point guard capable of earning consistent minutes down the road.
Looney brings in four new forward faces to bolster his frontline, but he also gets the services of Brayden Parker this year after Parker was forced to miss the entirety of the 2019-20 season due to injury. Looney is very high on Parker as a starting center and potential go-to post scoring threat; he has a wide body and a very soft touch in the paint. Cal Poly transfer Daxton Carr is eligible this season after sitting out last year due to the archaic transfer rules. Carr started 12 games as a freshman for a terrible Mustangs squad, showing off his ability to stretch the floor from the 4-spot. JUCO transfer Gedeon Buzangu should be a factor in the frontcourt rotation; he averaged a double-double in JUCO and is a much-needed defensive addition with his shot-blocking ability. Freshmen Kyle Karstetter, a stretch forward, and Zach Visentin, a big center, round out the frontcourt force.
Bottom Line: I’m a big fan of Ryan Looney and am totally on board with the direction he’s taking this program. There’s a scenario where everything clicks this year and ISU climbs out of the Big Sky gutter, but it’s more likely they spend another year or two in the depths while Looney continues to build the program back to conference competency.
Tier 5
11. Idaho
Key Returners: Scott Blakney, Damen Thacker, Jack Wilson, Babacar Thiombane, Chance Garvin, Gabe Quinnett, Ja’Vary Christmas
Key Losses: Trevon Allen, Marquell Fraser, Quinton Forrest, Keyshaad Dixon
Key Newcomers: Kendall McHugh (JUCO), Hunter-Jack Madden, Ethan Kilgore, DeAndre Robinson (JUCO), Tanner Christensen, AJ Youngman (JUCO / Redshirt), Michael Hanshaw (Redshirt)
Lineup:
Outlook: To the millions of Vandal fans out there about to read this preview, I am sorry. Your team is bad… very bad indeed. For the second straight season Idaho finished in the Big Sky cellar – newbie head coach Zac Claus did outperform 2018-19 and win four games in league play (including a bizarre win at Eastern Washington), but his Vandals remained one of the worst squads in the nation. This program was once very good under the instruction of Don Verlin but it could take years for Claus to get it back to that point.
Trevon Allen’s graduation leaves this team decimated from an offensive standpoint. Allen was basically Idaho’s entire offense – he was the 2nd highest used player in the Big Sky and ranked 1st in the league in percentage of team shots taken. The Vandals’ offense doesn’t have very far to fall; it was already the Big Sky’s worst last season driven by an affinity for settling for mid-range jump shots. Per KenPom Idaho ranked 6th in the country in percentage of points scored from 2PFG, a very odd stat indeed considering the Vandals were actually a good outside shooting team. Allen was a three-point marksman and the team shot 35.9% in conference play. Strangely, however, only two teams in the country had a lower 3PA rate. This must be addressed.
Claus does bring in a ton of shooting this year, so there is reason to believe Idaho should be a far more perimeter-oriented offense than last season. JUCO transfer Kendall McHugh shot 38% from deep at College of Southern Idaho last season, a very good JUCO squad who saw basically its entire team transfer to Idaho State in 2019. McHugh has a good chance at starting at the point; while he isn’t near the scorer Allen was, he should provide steady ball handling, passing, and outside shooting. Freshman CG Hunter-Jack Madden, a native of Australia, is a money three-point shooter as well, as is JUCO import AJ Youngman and freshman Ethan Kilgore. Youngman began his career at Eastern Kentucky before entering the JUCO ranks in 2018-19 and taking a redshirt year with the Vandals last season. In 2018-19, Youngman hit 45.8% of his three-point attempts. Kilgore has good size on the wing and averaged a whopping 25.6 PPG in Class 2A high school ball in Missouri. He can score from anywhere and has a very pretty stroke from distance.
Returning guards Damen Thacker, Chance Garvin, and Gabe Quinnett all shot over 34% from deep last season and should see upticks in playing time / shot volume in 2019-20. Thacker started 23 games as a walk-on last year, and while he did shoot well from the outside he also posted an ugly 83.5 O-rating and 28.6% TO rate. Quinnett, another walk-on, started the last five games of last season – he could get passed up in the rotation by some of the newcomers. Garvin started 15 games but battled injuries all year. Claus likes to play four-guard lineups so Garvin could see some run at the small-ball 4.
Idaho’s frontcourt is decent from a Big Sky perspective. Senior forward Scott Blakney is the Vandals’ returning leading scorer and could be the fulcrum to their offense this season. Blakney is an efficient post scorer but doesn’t add a ton from a rebounding or rim protection perspective. Jack Wilson, a 7-foot former Oregon State Beaver and 4-star recruit (per ESPN), also has potential to be a focal point in the Idaho offense in his junior year. Wilson played just half the games last season due to injury and shot just 37.5% from the field. He has the size and footwork to be an effective post player in this conference, but he didn’t prove that last year. Claus rarely played two posts together last season, so it’ll be interesting to see how he handles the Blakney / Wilson split.
Senior forward Babacar Thiombane, redshirt sophomore Michael Hanshaw, and freshman Tanner Christensen round out Idaho’s frontcourt rotation. Thiombane is the best frontcourt defender on the roster but severely lacks offensive skill. Christensen committed to Idaho back in 2017 before serving a two-year LDS mission trip – he’s very old for a freshman which could come in handy in his first season of college ball. At 6’10”, Christensen runs the floor very well for his size and can even face up from as far back as the three-point arc. Hanshaw is an athletic, tough 4-man who comes from a predominantly football-focused family.
Wings Ja’Vary Christmas and DeAndre Robinson will compete for starts and minutes this season as well. Christmas battled injuries last year but is valuable when healthy due to his athleticism and defensive versatility. Robinson played at Tallahassee CC last year, a very good JUCO, but was hurt most of the season. Previously he suited up for Wheeling, a DII school, where he averaged over 14 PPG. Robinson is strong, can shoot, and can play multiple spots on the floor.
Much like its offense, Idaho’s defense was awful last season too. The Vandals were the second worst defensive team in the conference, but one could argue they were lucky to be even that high. Opposing teams shot just 69.5% from the foul line against Idaho in league play (2nd worst in the BSKY) and 32.5% from three (3rd worst in the BSKY) – that’s due for some regression in a very negative way.
Bottom Line: Idaho is destined to finish dead last in the Big Sky for the third consecutive season. There’s no sugar coating it – this team is one of the 20 worst teams in the country. I’m rooting for Claus to get his Vandals back to Big Sky relevance, but it’s not going to happen in 2020-21.