-Matt Cox
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Jabari Rice, R Jr., New Mexico State
Coach of the Year: Chris Jans, New Mexico State
Newcomer of the Year: Donnie Tillman, Sr., New Mexico State
Freshman of the Year: Joey Madimba, Tarleton State
Team Previews
Tier 1
1. New Mexico State
Key Returners: Evan Gilyard, Jabari Rice, Johnny McCants
Key Losses: Ivan Aurrecoechea, Terrell Brown, Trevelin Queen, CJ Bobbitt, AJ Harris
Key Newcomers: Donnie Tillman (Utah), CJ Roberts (JUCO), Wilfried Likayi (JUCO), Jason King (JUCO), Kalen Williams (JUCO), Marcus Watson** (Oklahoma State), Mayan Kiir** (South Florida)
**eligible at semester, barring a late waiver approval for immediate eligibility
Lineup:
Outlook: To say New Mexico State was ravaged by injuries last year would be the understatement of the century. Chris Jans is no stranger to adversity in the game of basketball, encroaching on three decades in the business.
“I’ve never, in 28 years, experienced injuries like we did this past year.”
Jans returned nearly every piece of the 2019 squad, which scared the bejesus out of Auburn in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament – the same Auburn team that marched all the way to the Final Four. Expectations are always high in Las Cruces, but the 2020 squadron was primed for national attention. Then, a revolving door of injuries, especially at point guard, put the Aggies behind the 8-ball during non-conference play. They never fully healed, but Jans did get a few key cogs back before the onset of conference action. From there, it was easy as pie.
New Mexico State, again, ruled the WAC with an iron fist. The Aggies made mincemeat of their conference challengers, closing out the year on a sizzling 19-game win streak. A watered-down field made the slew of injuries easier to stomach, but Jans’ ability to consistently stock the cupboard with 10 or more solid rotational players kept the train rollin’ along. He’s just got that knack for reeling in transfers and JUCOS on an annual basis.
Whenever a coach touts ‘Defense’ and ‘Toughness’ as their program pillars, it usually sounds like cringeworthy coach speak. Over the summer, the National Association of Basketball Coaches (NABC) hosted a series of virtual coaching clinics. Professor Jans focused his seminar on, you guessed it, defense, specifically the unique design of what he calls the “Hybrid Man-to-Man Pack/Deny” scheme. “Hybrid Man-to-Man Pack/Deny” doesn’t roll of the tongue, but what it lacks in poetry it makes up for in potency. This defensive blueprint unlocks a perfect blend of on-ball pressure, passing lane denial and driving gap protection, leaving few outs for the offense to score.
Jans cited these three key performance indicators as the yardstick for tracking the Aggies’ defensive effectiveness:
points per possession
defensive rebounding rate
defensive assist rate
Unsurprisingly, the Aggies have topped the charts in all three categories on a national scale over last three seasons. The first two metrics are no-brainers. But, that precarious third KPI, “defensive assist rate”, points to the secret sauce of the Aggies’ defense.
The key emphasis in Jans’ off-ball defensive scheme is a mixture (hence the word ‘hybrid’ in the title) of passing and driving lane denial. All four help-side defenders are always positioned in between their man and the ballhandler, while the point-of-attack defender applies pesky on-ball pressure. The combination of heating up the ball and relentlessly denying passing lines makes it impossible for offenses to find a rhythm. This disruption of free-flowing ball and player movement impedes motion-based and set-based offenses from running fluid action.
With nowhere else to go, opponents are left twiddling their thumbs late in possessions, unable to initiate any offense. This leaves no other outs but a forced ‘hero ball’ heave late in the shot-clock. These unassisted, isolation shots are exactly the low quality attempts Jans wants to induce, measurable by the aforementioned defensive assist rate.
Recruiting to system is paramount for the Aggies’ program. The personnel never features a marquee name, as the key contributors are often indistinguishable from the next guy. Trevelin Queen was last year’s model prototype for the position-less versatility Jans swoons over. This year, a new wave of ‘Queen clones’ are ready to suit up. Utah transfer Donnie Tillman is the headliner, a rangy 6’7 wing with seemingly no holes in his game. He’s a monster talent by WAC standards, a former top-100 recruit and double-digit scorer in the Pac-12.
Tillman will be in good hands next to Johnny McCants, the Aggies’ super utility man. McCants would average 20 and 10 (with a few assists, steals and blocks sprinkled in) on nearly every other team on the WAC, but in Jans’ world, 10 PPG / 6 RPG / 2 APG / 1 SPG / 1 BPG, is about as good as it gets. Just how balanced are these Aggies? No one played more than 28 minutes a game last year, and I’d be shocked if anyone broke that barrier this season. After factoring in William McNair and potentially Marcus Watson and Mayan Kiir (eligibility permitting), this wing and forward rotation is too crowded for any one player to hog minutes.
On the perimeter, Jabari Rice is back to run to show, the Aggies’ top returning scorer, while Clayton Henry returns after the NCAA awarded him a medical redshirt. Henry was a full-time starter in 2019, but a broken hand paved the way for Rice to slide in to the starting lineup last year. Collectively, their length and size fits like a glove in Jans’ position-less defensive template. Rice will likely drive the bus on offense this year, but Henry may have to stave off competition from four stud JUCO arrivals, CJ Roberts, Jason King, Kalen Williams and Darreus Brown.
Roberts, who started his career at Mizzou, and King both cracked the JUCOrecruiting.com’s top-100 prospect list, while Brown and Williams were both prolific shooters at their prior JUCO destinations. All four will see time this year, forming the perimeter nucleus of one of the best bench mobs in the country. Wilfried Likayi is the forgotten unicorn amongst this deep stable of guards and wings, a freakishly long scoring machine (and one of last year’s many injury victims). He’s garnered comparisons to Kevin Durant on the JUCO circuit, but he might be a year away from making a major splash.
Bottom Line: After searching far and wide for a weakness on this team, I found nothing. I suppose one could nitpick over the lack of a true point guard, but I have no reservations about Evan Gilyard taking command. He’ll step in to more of a primary ball handler role this season, but this balanced scoring attack doesn’t need a ball dominant lead guard. The wings and forwards are tremendous passers, which allows Jans to play through a slew of different players on any given possession, making the Aggies incredibly unpredictable.
Jans hasn’t lost a conference game since January 2019. Death, taxes and New Mexico State winning the WAC are certainties in this day and age.
Tier 2
2. Grand Canyon
Key Returners: Alessandro Lever, Jovan Blacksher Jr., Mikey Dixon
Key Losses: Carlos Johnson, Lorenzo Jenkins
Key Newcomers: Asbjorn Midtgaard (Wichita State), Gabe McGlothan (SEMO), Sean Miller-Moore (Oregon State)
Lineup:
Outlook: Deep pockets and thunderous crowds give Grand Canyon an enviable leg up over their WAC counterparts – but even the ‘haves’ in college hoops can crumble under the wrath of the basketball overlords. They shot arrows at Thunder Dan Majerle from all different angles last season. Injuries. Eligibility issues. You name it, the Lopes had it thrown in their face.
Majerle paid the iron price for last year’s implosion, a sad ending to an otherwise successful 7-year tenure in Phoenix. Those unfortunate circumstances laid the pavement for Bryce Drew’s return to the sidelines, somewhat ironically, given Drew’s unfair axing at Vandy two years ago. Well, karma came in the form of a 16-million dollar payday, further evidence of how his new employer makes the rest of the WAC look like raggedy hand-me downs.
Shoring up the defense is where Drew’s attention is needed right away. Thunder Dan’s defense was unrecognizable last season, relative to the 2018 rendition. In 2018, Grand Canyon boasted a top-50 overall defense. Last year, it fell off a cliff, grading out as one of the 40 worst defenses in America (327th), per KenPom. From a handicapping / gambling lens, juxtaposing the Lopes’ against the spread record and over/under record tells the story:
Fixing last year’s downy soft defense starts with solving the riddle of Alessandro Lever, one of GCU’s two All-Conference award recipients in 2020. First, let’s pay credence to Lever’s dazzling offensive game. He’s a magician around the rim, a cerebral passer from all over the floor and a knockdown shooter with expanding range. Unfortunately, Lever carries all the stereotypical baggage associated with European big men: soft, and somewhat athletically challenged. Per hooplens.com, opponents converted 52% of their field goals inside the arc with Lever on the floor, compared to only 42% with Lever off the floor.
It’s tough to hide Lever defensively, but Wichita State newcomer Asbjorn Midtgaard should help fortify the interior. The 7-foot 270-pound Midtgaard looks like a goalie guarding a Little Tikes net when posted up in front of the rim – his frame is that imposing. The question is, how many minutes can he be counted to deliver on a nightly basis?
A pair of transfers, Sean Miller-Moore (Oregon State) and Gabe McGlothan (SEMO) are also coming to the defensive rescue, two plus athletes with multi-positional defensive value. Yet, they don’t hold a candle to Oscar Frayer’s explosiveness. The Lopes’ human highlight reel was ruled ineligible last season, stripping GCU of its most versatile defensive weapon. In many ways, he was missing link for this team last year, which severely lacked perimeter agility and timely shooting. Frayer’s not a ‘me-first’ guy on offense. He’s willingly accepted a complementary role, pouncing on scoring opportunities as they arise.
This upgraded crop of wings, plus the addition of Midtgaard, creates a potential lineup conundrum this season. The ultimate goal should be to optimize Lever, whose simply too special offensively to keep on the pine, regardless of his defensive shortcomings – no matter where he’s positioned, the Lopes have to live with his limitations on that end. One option is to deploy Midtgaard and Lever in tandem, which would form an intimidating wall in the middle. Alternatively, Drew could use Midtgaard and Lever as interchangeable parts, enabling quicker, more athletic lineups with some combination of Frayer, McGlothan and Miller-Moore at the 3 and the 4 positions.
Drew doesn’t have all the answers now, but based on the emphasis he places on rebounding, he’ll likely favor lineup combinations that are guaranteed to shore up the glass:
"I've always put a precedence on defensive rebounding and seven of eight years in head coaching we've out-rebounded our opponents," Drew said in an interview with AZ Central this summer. "I kind of want to stay in line with what we've done in this coaching area throughout my career."
This is music to Bryce Okpoh’s ears, a rising sophomore whose activity on the boards helped earn him immediate run in an upperclassmen dominant rotation last season.
Jovan Blacksher Jr. was the other baby in GCU’s veteran-laden core last season. The rookie point guard was expected to serve as an understudy to Jaylen Fisher, but when Fisher was deemed academically ineligible, Blacksher had to carry the torch himself. Blacksher hit his stride by conference play, and caught fire in February, pacing the Lopes to a 4-1 stretch from January 20th to February 15th.
His backcourt counterpart, Mikey Dixon, joined the mix at semester, a former St. John’s transfer who seized the second guard spot with no hesitation. Dixon became the Lopes’ 3rd banana on offense throughout conference play but cooled off down the stretch, relinquishing his starting spot the last two games of the season. If Dixon can’t achieve consistency, 3-star freshman Jayden Stone is chomping at the bit, a polished combo guard from Sunrise Christian Academy.
Bottom Line: Take last year and light it on fire. Injuries mounted and Thunder Dan proved incompetent of adapting to the circumstances. But Bryce Drew with a replenished roster is an appetizing combination I can get behind. Blacksher could bloom into a stellar point guard and he's got plenty of weapons to work with (Dixon, Frayer and Lever). The Lopes have all the ingredients to return to form in 2021 – it’s too bad the Havocs won’t be in full force to witness it live at the rowdy GCU Arena.
Tier 3
3. UT Rio Grande Valley
Key Returners: Javon Levi, Quinton Johnson II, Chris Freeman, Sean Rhea, Anthony Bratton, Connor Raines, Rob McClain Jr.
Key Losses: Lesley Varner II, Jordan Jackson
Key Newcomers: Marek Nelson (Western Kentucky), Jeff Otchere (Stony Brook), Ricky "Doc" Nelson (Weber State), Malik Lawrence-Anderson (JUCO)
Lineup:
Outlook: As a former mentee to Lon Kruger, Lew Hill knows the inner-workings of building and sustaining a successful program. Within the WAC, that gold standard is located one state over in Las Cruces, where Chris Jans continuously restocks the talent supply with fit-for-system players via the transfer portal. Hill is copy-catting this formula to player acquisition and roster construction at UTRGV. Depth and experience, albeit not always Division I experience, underpin each of the last three teams Hill’s fielded in Edinburg. This mirroring approach has produced steady returns the last two seasons, as the Vaqueros took home the WAC’s bronze medal last year and finished above .500 the year prior.
However, replicating the New Mexico State model isn’t as easy as following a cookbook recipe. Going all-in on transfer talent carries inherent risk, particularly in maintaining roster continuity. The majority of newcomers have a one-year or two-year lifespan, making it difficult to build chemistry and instill culture. The Vaqueros face the same challenges this season, with a pair of 15+ PPG scorers (Lesley Varner and Jordan Jackson) exiting stage right. But, Hill welcomes back nearly every other piece of last year’s fragmented nucleus. Quinton Johnson II and Chris Freeman will be promoted from fringe starters to key contributors, while Rob McClain Jr., Connor Raines, Sean Rhea and Anthony Bratton should see their crunch time minutes increase as well.
Per barttorvik.com, UTRGV returns 74% of last year’s minutes (66th highest percentage in the nation), and infuses four impact transfers (Marek Nelson, Jeff Otchere, Ricky ‘Doc’ Nelson and Malik Lawrence-Anderson) to round out the edges. Akin to New Mexico State, the strength in numbers lays the foundation for a relentless defensive front. Marek Nelson, a Western Kentucky import, is cut from the same cloth as many other indistinguishable players on this roster (long, versatile, etc.).
Otchere, on the other hand, is a major outlier. The former shot-blocker extraordinaire anchored a stellar defense at Stony Brook, posting the nation’s top block rate two years in a row. Fouling habits and offensive limitations aside, Hill views Otchere as a paradigm shifting talent, infusing an element of rim protection to the Vaqueros’ defense without sacrificing speed and agility:
“Just like how Javon (Levi) picks up and pressures the ball sometimes controlling it on the defensive end from the top, [Otchere] can do the same thing from the back with his ruggedness and athleticism,” Hill told the Monitor this summer. “Offensively, he can get out in transition and run with us. He can switch one through five, he has great footwork and he’s just a really, really good defender and a proven offensive player.”
Sean Rhea and Anthony Bratton are the incumbent forwards, two barrel-chested bigs who more closely resemble typical UTRGV forwards. Rhea and Bratton feasted on the offensive glass last season, cleaning up a hearty portion of the Vaqueros’ misses.
The Vaqueros’ balance and unpredictability make them tough to guard offensively, but there’s two sides to the coin here. They hunt the rim with unchecked persistence, often preying on slower, clog-footed forwards with athletic wing / forward hybrids (Varney was the epitome of this archetype). Speed is ubiquitous throughout the lineup, and the defensive pressure often keys cheap fast break points going the other way.
However, the offense’s helter-skelter nature falters in slower, half-court contests, lacking the structure and execution needed to score efficiently when the game slows down. The Vaqueros are way too easily seduced by inefficient pull-up jumpers, particularly from the mid-range area:
38.5% of all UTRGV’s field goal attempts last year classified as 2-point jumpers, per hoop-math.com
Dribblehandoff.com graded the Vaqueros’ average shot quality as the 20th worst in the nation (334th overall)
So much of the Vaqueros’ DNA is tied up in Javon Levi. Levi’s stats (led the country in assists at 8 dimes a game last year) and accolades (2X WAC Defensive Player of the Year) are clear indicators that he’s at the heart of everything the Vaqueros do. He sets the tone on both ends of the floor, keying the press on defense and leading the break on offense.
However, because Levi’s so deeply entangled in the Vaqueros’ identity, his warts are born by the team at large. There were many culprits in the aforementioned shot-selection and general inefficiency woes, but Levi’s little frame makes him especially prone to unreliable finishing inside.
Below is a list of games in which Levi attempted 9 or more 2s and shot under 33% on those attempts. This reveals the dark side to Levi’s otherwise electrifying game:
12/21 @ Texas Tech: 2-14
1/1 @ Cal Baptist: 6-14
1/16 @ Seattle: 4-12
1/18 @ Utah Valley: 1-9
2/27 @ Cal State Bakersfield: 4-12
3/7 vs. Cal Baptist: 2-10
To his credit, Levi added a much needed 3-point jump shot to his arsenal last season, forcing defenses to step up and honor his long-range jumper. He’ll continue to serve his teammates on a platter and pick the pockets of opposing WAC guards, but adding more precision to his interior touch would do wonders for this offense. Until those corrections are made, expect the same chronic inefficiencies to linger.
Nelson, the Weber State import, could be a saving grace if he can harness the best version of himself, circa 2018. Injuries marred his sophomore season at Weber, so perhaps a year off is just what the ‘Doc’ ordered. At minimum, Nelson fills a glaring void at backup point guard, which was exposed last year when Levi got injured early in the season.
Bottom Line: While the Vaqueros’ top two performers depart, a fully healthy Levi is back to wreak havoc, while Johnson and Freeman are just two of many reinforcements ready to ride alongside him. Lew Hill won’t hesitate to go 10-deep on any given night, throwing waves of bodies to keep the pedal to metal defensively. If Levi avoids any injury setbacks, the Vaqueros are poised for another top-3 finish in 2021.
4. Cal Baptist
Key Returners: Ty Rowell
Key Losses: Milan Acquaah, De'Jon Davis, Brandon Boyd, Ferron Flavors, Zach Pirog
Key Newcomers: , Elijah Thomas (Saint Mary’s), Gorjok Gak (Florida), Jermaine Miranda (Hofstra), Russell Barlow (TCU), Mark Carbone (New Hampshire), Jordan Caruso (Incarnate Word), Makhtar Gueye*** (UAB)
***needs waiver
*NOTE: Isaac White, formerly of Stanford, is no longer on the team
Lineup:
Outlook: It’s been a dreamy walk down the Division I red carpet for Rick Croy and the Lancers. Just two years removed from being promoted to college basketball’s major leagues, Cal Baptist racked up 21 wins and roared through a beaten down WAC field to claim the 2nd highest peg on the conference podium. There’s nothing cute about this rapid rise to prominence. Well run and well funded, the Lancers’ program belongs at the big boy table – and the recent results back it up.
However, all honeymoons have an expiration date. Rick Croy faces a daunting task of replacing five starters from last year’s squad, including the reigning WAC Player of the Year, Milan Acquaah. Croy’s left with effectively one relevant piece from last year’s puzzle, Ty Rowell, along with a slew of newcomers.
Before an ACL tear ended the sharpshooting Rowell’s 2020 campaign eight games into the season, he was in paradise running alongside Acquaah, a personal butler for Rowell and the other Lancer snipers. Acquaah’s explosive first step and devastating slashing ability drew defensive attention from all over the floor, creating a plethora of open looks from the outside. Per Synergy, no team mastered the art of drive-and-kick basketball like the Lancers, evidenced by a scorching hot 1.14 points per possession on spot-up possessions:
This encapsulates the ideal outcome in Croy’s offense, which is an offshoot of Randy Bennett’s system at Saint Mary’s. Attack the gaps. Swing the ball. Find the shooter. Make the shot.
The last step in that sequence won’t be an issue this year. The shooting calvary is well stocked again, with Rowell, St. Mary’s transfer Elijah Thomas, New Hampshire transfer Mark Carbone, plus two Australian sophomores, Tre Armstrong and Reed Nottage. However, there’s no second coming of Acquaah waiting in the wings.
Based on Croy’s comments in an offseason interview with WAC Hoops Digest, he’s counting on Rowell to evolve into an offensive initiator. While Rowell’s more adept as a driver than his stat profile indicates, he’s a clear downgrade to Acquaah in this domain. The implication is as follows: Croy’s offense needs to evolve into a democratic, by-committee unit, one that’s more reliant on system-generated shots, rather than individual-generated shots. Last year, the Lancers had the luxury of both options. The staggered down screens and perpetual movement produced plenty of high-quality looks, but Acquaah was there as a failsafe. The point is, there’s no ‘get out of jail free’ card this year.
Cal Baptist faces an uphill climb on the defensive end as well, with De’Jon Davis and Zach Pirog, the Lancers’ two-man-band up front last year, graduating. In that same interview with WAC Hoops Digest, Croy made no mention to UAB transfer Makhtar Gueye, who could be a gamechanger defensively if granted a late waiver. Assuming he’s on the shelf for the 2021 campaign, Florida product Gorjok Gak will step to the forefront. Gak’s talent and measurables are beyond enticing, a former 3-star recruit who wields a 7-4 wingspan. However, Gak hasn’t clocked meaningful minutes on a Division I basketball court since 2018. A serious knee injury and shoulder dislocation kept him off the floor the last two years, which begs the question as to how dependable he’ll be this season.
Croy rolled the dice on another power conference flame out, Russell Barlow, a TCU defector and 4-star prospect coming out of high school. Gak and Barlow boast big time pedigree, each of whom could be a force in the WAC. However, bouncy bigs with injury baggage are never smart bets, so rookie Malik Wade may hear his number called early on if Gak or Barlow suffer a setback.
Bottom Line: Still in NCAA timeout, the Lancers will once again put all their chips into the WAC regular season as their own personal postseason (hey, at least they’re allowed to play in the WAC tournament this year, assuming that happens). Croy’s managed to push all the right buttons the last two seasons, but this year’s Rubik’s Cube presents a whole different challenge. Acquaah is gone, and smorgasbord of new kids arrive. How quickly Croy adapts to the foreign circumstances will determine where the Lancers wind up in the standings. Ultimately, he’s earned the benefit of the doubt, precisely why CBU retains a top-4 position in our projected finish.
5. Seattle
Key Returners: Riley Grigsby, Aaron Nettles
Key Losses: Terrell Brown, Morgan Means, Myles Carter, Delante Jones, Mattia Da Campo
Key Newcomers: Daron Henson (Washington State), Jared Pearre (Cal State Northridge), Angelo Stuart (JUCO), Darrion Trammell (JUCO), Nate Robinson (JUCO), Emeka Udenyi (JUCO)
Lineup:
Outlook: After injuries tore the Redhawks’ 2019 season to shreds, the 2020 campaign was supposed to be a redemption tour. A 5th place finish can be dressed up as a successful year, but I’d argue Seattle had a higher gear that it just never reached. Decoding why the Redhawks never soared to expected heights is a bit complicated…
One explanation could be that last year’s roster concoction was misaligned from Hayford’s optimal stylistic preference. Specifically, paint patrolman and double-double machine Myles Carter, while productive and dominant, wasn’t a natural fit in Hayford’s offense. Refer to the identities of Hayford’s best teams at Eastern Washington. Compared to Bogdan Bliznyuk, Jacob Wiley and Venky Jois, unorthodox forwards with guard-like handle and vision, Carter’s one-dimensional, paint-centric game looked out of place. However, he was too much of a force to completely cast aside, leaving Hayford no choice but to retune his offense to accommodate Carter.
The on / off data at hooplens.com reveals the stylistic shift with Carter in and out of the lineup. Last year, with Carter on the floor, the Redhawks’ 3-point attempt rate was a meager 35% - meager by Hayford’s standards. With Carter out, that clip spiked to 42%. As you can see in the chart below, courtesy of KenPom’s historical coaching page, 42% is right in line with Hayford’s historical trend line:
While Carter may have been a clunky fit for Hayford’s system, the offense didn’t fare much better without him. A dearth of shooting was also blameworthy, usually a linchpin in Hayford’s offenses – last year’s 31.2% team hit rate was the lowest of Hayford’s head coaching career. In Blue Ribbon’s offseason preview, Hayford explicitly discussed the importance of shot making this season:
“For our offense to work, we need to shoot the ball better than we did last year. We’re looking to really improve our shooting.”
In many ways, the Redhawks wasted Terrell Brown’s brilliant work as a distributor, an All WAC 1st Team selection a year ago. Losing Brown’s shot creation is killer, especially with no proven replacement in the pipeline. The burly Riley Grisgby, whose name might be confused for a novelist, is Seattle’s only returning starter, while 3-point specialist Aaron Nettles likely slides into the starting lineup. Both are tailor-made role players in Hayford’s offense, but they’re not equipped to shoulder the offensive scoring load. Trey Hopkins and Rip Economou will help handle the ball and initiate offense, but they, too, don’t instill fear in the defense. Newcomers anyone?
Darrion Trammell is one of three Community College of San Francisco products joining the fold this year, a JUCO juggernaut that went 30-0 last season. Angelo Stuart is another JUCO standout from Missouri-based Mineral Area, regarded as a lethal shooter from distance. On the heels of Brown’s departure, Trammell and Stuart may be the solutions for an offense in dire need of perimeter firepower.
An eye-opening alteration to Hayford’s stylistic norms last year was the subtle spike in tempo. The Redhawks, surprisingly, checked in as the fastest team in the WAC, a confounding acceleration in pace given Carter’s presence inside. However, it was Brown who held the offense in the palm of his hand. His desire to race up and down the floor won out in the tug-of-war, and the Redhawks sped up accordingly. If Trammell ends up winning the point guard battle, expect more runnin’ and gunnin’ this year. The NorCal speedster is a tenacious on ball defender, and loves to hit the turbo button when he has the rock in transition.
Along with replenishing last year’s shooting dearth, Hayford’s looking to infuse more multi-positional versatility at the wing and forward spots. On the WAC Hoops Digest podcast, Hayford discussed his affection for European basketball, even preferring it to the NBA. This heuristic is likely what led him to Daron Henson, formerly of Washington State and Utah State before that. Henson’s hybrid wing / forward skillset qualifies him as a mismatch creator, even though he’s barely scratched the surface of his potential. Cal State Northridge import Jared Pearre adds another disruptive defender to the equation, but his inability to space the floor may deflate his value.
Bottom Line: Even though I think Hayford finds a way to slither into the upper echelon of the WAC standings, the floor beneath this 5th place projection is held up by scotch tape and chopsticks. If one of the JUCOs or transfers don’t break out in emphatic fashion, Seattle will be lucky to stay above .500. While I remain a staunch Hayford supporter, last season was objectively a disappointment, given the experience and continuity that rolled over from the year prior. Now, the roster has been stripped to scraps, which could manifest in a blow-it-up rebuild if things go south early on.
Tier 4
6. Utah Valley
Key Returners: Trey Woodbury
Key Losses: TJ Washington, Brandon Averette, Casdon Jardine, Emmanuel Olojakpoke
Key Newcomers: Jordan Brinson (UAB), Evan Cole (Georgia Tech), Fardaws Aimaq (Mercer), Tim Fuller (Weber St.), Colby Leifson (BYU), Blaze Nield (BYU), Trey Farrer (JUCO), Jaden McClanahan (JUCO)
*Jamison Overton has opted out for the season
Lineup:
Outlook: Last year, just 15 minutes northeast of Orem, Utah, Mark Pope and his electrifying BYU Cougars had the roof set to pop off the Marriott Center. Meanwhile, like forgotten outcasts admiring the cool kids lunch table, there was Utah Valley, slowly slipping into college basketball’s abyss….
A coach of Pope’s caliber rarely makes a pit stop at the Utah Valleys of the world. Those four years won’t be soon forgotten, as Mark Madsen faces a steep hill to climb to get the program back to Pope’s 2018 and 2019 standards. Based on the roster he’s going to battle with this season, a marginal improvement would be deemed a success.
15 new faces join the roster on the heels of this summer’s exodus (all five starters from a year ago depart). Luckily, the Wolverines went 3-for-3 on their waiver requests, securing clearance for Jordan Brinson (UAB), Tim Fuller (Weber State) and Blaze Nield (BYU) to suit up right away. Along with grad transfer Evan Cole (Georgia Tech) and redshirt transfers Fardaws Aimaq (Mercer) and Colby Leifson (BYU, again), there’s enough ready-made contributors to keep UVU afloat in the near-term.
True to Madsen’s own identity, the Wolverines should be sturdy up front. Cole was a minutes eater off the pine for three consecutive seasons in Atlanta, and an overlooked member of a few monstrous Tech front courts. Madsen gushed about Cole in a recent podcast with WAC Hoops Digest, raving about his leadership and intangibles. Aimaq’s a familiar face in the locker room, who now gets to shine after sitting out last season. Opponents steered clear of Emmanuel Olojakpoke’s turf last season, the WAC’s leading shot blocker in 2020, but scoring over Aimaq’s 7-3 wingspan won’t be much easier. Fuller, the Weber product, will add physicality to the frontline, a tenacious rebounder and disruptive garbage man in the middle. Finally, NJCAA Honorable Mention nominee Trey Farrer is a steady low-post operator who can score with his back to basket.
Trey Woodbury and Jamison ‘JJ’ Overton were the leaders of the bench mob last year, and the only two loyal holdovers from last year’s squad - that is, until Overton decided to opt out for the season. That leaves Woodbury, a steady glue guy and solid all-around player. He’s dependable, but certainly not the solution to the most pressing need on this roster: shot creation. TJ Washington and Brandon Averette, the Wolverines’ co-captains last season, were the only reliable creators capable of getting into gaps and breaking down the defense. They couldn’t shoot a lick, but their dribble penetration was instrumental to UVU’s offense.
Nield, a deadly long range driller, could be the band-aid to last year’s shooting scars. Nield’s a virtual unknown after being buried behind BYU’s stellar backcourt last season, but he put up jaw-dropping stats at his prior JUCO stop. Brinson, the UAB product, is a prolific athlete with serious upside, but he’s a one-dimensional scorer and incompetent shooter.
Bottom Line: Mark Madsen deserves a mini hall pass for last year’s avalanche of injuries, which disrupted any and all rotational chemistry and continuity. But, that doesn’t address the loss of three key catalysts from a team that fell into the bottom-100 in KenPom’s overall rankings. I’ll co-sign the counter argument that TJ Washington was an inefficient gunner, often doing more harm than good, but his value above replacement is magnified in a scenario with no successor on deck. Jaden McClanahan could be a deep sleeper in this newcomer class, capable of rendering my playmaking concerns moot, but that’s a large leap of faith at this juncture. For now, I’ll stay firm on my ‘Sell Rating’ for Utah Valley’s 2021 stock.
7. Tarleton State
Key Returners: Javontae Hopkins, Isaiah Range, Clashon Gaffney
Key Losses: Josh Hawley, Randall Brodie, Devin Bethely
Key Newcomers: Too many to name
*As of late October, Tayton Conerway was not on the Tarleton State official roster – Conerway was voted the Offensive Player of the Year in the Fort Worth Star Telegram after posting 19.9 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 3.5 APG averages at Burleson. This preview assumes he is not playing this season, despite reports that he was initially practicing with the team.
Lineup:
***expected redshirts for current season, per Verbal Commits roster page
Outlook: Billy the Clyde is back, baby…
Controversial past endeavors notwithstanding, the Tarleton athletic department certainly knows how to make an entrance. One of the WAC’s new Division I additions, Tarleton promoted former head honcho, Chris Reisman, to an admin role, paving the way for the Gillespie’s grand entrance back into the Division I coaching arena. Beneath the cloud of his infamous flame out at Kentucky, Gillespie’s compiled quite the trophy case over the years. A 2019 National JUCO Coach of the Year award is a blind spot for most Division I fans, as are other dead and buried accolades from his first rodeo in the DI ranks (see Coach of the Year in the Big-12 twice, Co-Coach of the Year in the SEC and Coach of the Year in the WAC).
Gillespie prides himself on running a tight ship – sometimes, too tight – which may explain a good chunk of last year’s roster breaking away. Forward Josh Hawley, in particular, would’ve been a fun one to watch under Gillespie’s tutelage, an explosive wing with unabashed confidence. Point guard Devin Bethely also defected, an unselfish table setter for last year’s 18-12 Texans. The lone sheep opting not to seek greener pastures are Javontae Hopkins, Isaiah Range and Clashon Gaffney. All three figure to be right in the thick of Gillespie’s core rotation – though, the depth chart hierarchy is still far from solidified.
‘Explosiveness’ is the resounding trait underscored in Hopkins and Range. Hopkins is one of many speed-burners in this Texan backcourt, who flashed takeover potential in a few games last year. Montre’ Gibson and Cadarius Bagget will have a familiarity edge over the other newcomers, who each played for Gillespie last year at Ranger. Gibson, along with 6’6 wing Shakur Daniel, were the most productive of the Ranger imports, a sign that they’ll likely crack the primary rotation. Range is the perfect connector piece in this guard and wing-laden roster, a rangy 6’3 guard and tremendous rebounder at his position.
The front court is where Gaffney resides, the third remnant of the Texans’ leftovers. Gaffney’s encroaching upon Tarleton’s all-time leader in blocks, thanks to his elastic leaping ability (he apparently is a triple jumper on the track team). Pardon the cliché, but Gaffney is just one of those gifted athletes who excels at whatever he puts his mind to. While the projected starting lineup picture above pegs him as the sole rim protector, Gillespie may slide him to the 4 alongside another big to upsize the lineup – in terms of who fills that blank, your guess is as good as mine. At 6’9, Heri Ngalamulume stands taller than anyone else on the roster, but he barely saw the floor playing for Gillespie last year at Ranger.
Not all of Gillespie’s newcomers were cherry-picked from Ranger. In fact, the Clyde claimed Tarleton was one of the few recruiting beneficiaries from the COVID conditions. His deeply entrenched relationships across the Lone Star state helped bag homegrown talent, many of whom were reluctant to venture too far from home. In standard circumstances, many of these diamonds in the rough would’ve slipped through the cracks and wound up at more prominent programs.
Joey Madimba and Shamir Bogues are the two Texans, double entendre intended, poised for big roles this year, given their high school pedigree. Bogues is a near replica of his older brother who played at SFA, while Madimba, a 3-star prospect per 247sports, earned All-State honors last year. Along with rookies Tanner Ford and Roman Garcia, competition will be fierce for perimeter playing time.
Gillespie’s been cryptic in describing his style of play this offseason, but his prior stints at UTEP, Texas A&M, Kentucky and Texas Tech, along with his recent teams at Ranger, offer some clues. Last season, Ranger averaged 87 points a game, which ranked 44th out of 205 teams in the NJCAA division, a slight dip from their 13th ranked scoring offense in 2019. During his Division I days, Gillespie’s average tempo bounced around, ranging from 76th overall (2004 at UTEP) to 282nd overall (2008 at Kentucky). Thus, if history is any indication, Gillespie’s offenses are more likely to breach the speed limit, but he’s shown an aptitude to adjust to his personnel on a year to year basis. Given the speed and depth assembled on this roster, Gillespie will be tempted to unleash those athletes in the open floor, rather than reel them back into a methodical, half-court pace.
One final note: My research has led me astray in determining whether Troy transfer Tahj Small and Prairie View A&M transfer Jonathan Jackson will be eligible to play this season. Along with Caleb Starks, who made pit stops at Northwestern and LSU prior to Tarleton, this group brings much needed Division I experience to a roster comprised primarily of JUCOs and freshmen.
Bottom Line: Determining who or how Gillespie will play in year 1 is a crapshoot, but it’s abundantly clear that the Texans are flushed with untapped talent and burgeoning athletes. Relative to Dixie State, the WAC’s other new addition, the Texans are in a different class athletically, but the chemistry and cohesion remain in question.
8. Dixie State
Key Returners: Hunter Schofield, Dason Youngblood, Frank Staine, Jarod Greene
Key Losses: Jack Pagenkopf
Key Newcomers: Mikey Frasier (Boise State), Andre Mulibea
Lineup:
Outlook: Duke / North Carolina… Cincinnati / Xavier… Dixie State / Utah Valley…
To all thee clamoring for the restoration of the esteemed I-15 rivalry, your wish has been granted.
The WAC’s expansion initiative helped pull Dixie State up from the Division II ranks, raising the stakes on all future Trailblazer / Wolverine bouts. Being a Division I basketball brand comes with many perks, but for Dixie, travel convenience won’t be one of them.
Dixie hails from the Rocky Mountain Athletic Conference (RMAC), a DII conference predominantly domiciled in five Great West States: Utah, New Mexico, Colorado, Nebraska and South Dakota. Their new conference map will stretch them far and wide, from the great northwest in Seattle, all the way down to the southeast corner of Texas – and oh yeah, don’t forget about that quick detour in Chicago, either.
For Jon Judkins, Dixie’s program director for a decade and a half, the burdensome travel isn’t even on his radar.
He would’ve preferred steer his Trailblazers through uncharted Division I waters with Jack Pagenkopf as a compass, the reigning RMAC Offensive Player of the Year and one of Dixie’s all-time greats. 15 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists per game don’t come in single player packages very often. Pagenkopf’s backcourt deputy last year, Daron Youngblood, will now become Dixie’s perimeter catalyst by default. Pagenkopf’s 15 / 6 / 6 per game production may look intimidating, but Youngblood isn’t far behind in any of those three categories. In fact, his player archetype is quite similar to Pagenkopf’s. Youngblood has some shake off the dribble, a muscle he’ll have to flex this year as the primary creator.
Youngblood will also be aided by Judkins’ offensive system, which doesn’t require him to be a star in a solo act. Judkins highlighted the unselfishness of his offense in an offseason interview with Mid Major Madness:
“We usually play inside out, and try to get as much high percentage shots as possible and take open shots, and I think with our team we share the ball extremely well,” Judkins said. “I think they’ll see just that, a lot of sharing that ball, a lot of inside out, a lot of unselfish play.”
On tape, the ‘inside-out’ trigger Judkins refers to is just one of many motion components. Dixie utilizes perpetual screening action on the perimeter, allowing guards to read and react to their defender and back cut, curl or fade accordingly. There also appears to be an element of ball screen continuity, but this seems largely catered to Pagenkopf’s skill set. Youngblood’s proficient in pick-n-roll himself, but he won’t need to flaunt that individualism in a relatively rigid offensive system. In the half-court, he’ll blend in more with the broader system. In the open floor, where the Wolverines like to assert the pace, he’ll be the bell cow of the fast break.
The aforementioned ‘inside-out’ component of Dixie’s offense is no-brainer, given the horses Judkins has up front. At a group level, the bigs are rock solid fundamentally. They’re well trained screeners, rollers and sealers, all critical components of the offensive execution. Hunter Schofield is the ringleader, a double-double threat everytime he steps on the floor. Schofield’s a low post practitioner, a true old school big man in a sense, but he’s recently added a reliable jumper to his arsenal. Jarod Greene was a part time starter alongside Schofield last year, in many ways Schofield’s physical enforcer. However, a second bruiser is joining the mix, Mikey Frasier, a former Boise State product who Judkins is salivating over. Frasier had a cup of coffee at Garden City CC last year after redshirting the year prior at Boise. He’s slowly blossomed into a highly skilled scorer, and, like Schofield, won’t hesitate to pull an unsuspecting big away from the lane and bury a long range jumper.
Before heaping too much praise on this trio, the Wolverine frontline isn’t bulletproof. In a modernized basketball world, smart teams may find success exploiting their plodding lateral quickness and lack of vertical explosiveness. Sheer size and sound technique should be sufficient enough to fortify the rim, but highly switchable lineups may be their kryptonite on the perimeter. To counter, Judkins can always plant them to the lane with his tricky zone defense, a commonly used curve ball by the 15-year veteran (per Synergy, Dixie played zone on 30% of all defensive possessions last year). Look no further than Merrimack, last year’s new Division I darling who stymied opponents with a customized matchup zone. Judkins’ zone isn’t quite the same as Joe Gallo’s, but the element of surprise against unfamiliar WAC foes should play in Dixie’s favor.
Two wings headline a solid supporting cast, Frank Staine and Andre Mulibea. Staine started all but one game last year, a 6’6 swiss army knife who’s oozing with upside. All the physical tools you’d want in a prototypical swingman come in stock with Staine’s game. Mulibea is the other heralded newcomer outside of Frasier, a local product who garnered interest from BYU and San Diego State. He can fill it up from all over, as he showed during his senior season in high school when he poured in 24 points a game.
Bottom Line: Don’t be turned off by this 8th place projection. Dixie is within striking distance of a top-6 finish, and could easily usurp Tarleton and Utah Valley if the cards fall their way. Pagenkopf’s playmaking and shot making wizardry will be sorely missed, but if Youngblood turns out to be 75%-80% of Pagenkopf last year, that might vault Dixie into flirting with top-5 territory this season.
Tier 5
9. Chicago State
Key Returners: Xavier Johnson, Isaiah Lewis, Andrew Lewis, Ke'Sean Davis, Solomon Hunt, Rajeir Jones
Key Losses: Amir Gholizadeh, Jace Colley
Key Newcomers: Levelle Zeigler (JUCO), Jordan Polynice (JUCO), Aaris-Monte Bonds (JUCO), Isaiah Simpson (JUCO), Lou Demuth
Lineup:
Outlook: Man, those basketball Gods work in mysterious ways. Sometimes, gracious. Other times, judicious. But occasionally, merciless.
If there’s a college basketball coach in the country undeserving of the latter, it’s Lance Irvin. At Chicago State, under severe budgetary restrictions, Irvin is trying to paddle across the Pacific Ocean in a canoe. He faces the largest intra-conference budget discrepancy of any team in America. Chicago State’s basketball expenditures are ~66% below the WAC average, barely surpassing the $1M threshold in 2019.
So, is it asking too much, Oh Holy Spirits of Roundball, to bestow the Cougars a clean bill of health?
It apparently was last year…
By my calculations, five of Chicago State’s top-6 players last year, Xavier Johnson, Andrew Lewis, Isaiah Lewis, Ke’Sean Davis and Jace Colley, took the floor together only twice. The results in those two contests? A win over SIU Edwardsville and a near upset of Tennessee State. The other 27 games, at least one member of that nucleus was sidelined. Johnson and Lewis (Andrew), the elder statesmen of the Cougars’ backcourt, missed a combined nine games. That pales in comparison to the 19 absences tallied by Colley and Davis, last year’s opening day starting frontline pairing. Isaiah Lewis, the baby of the bunch, was a flash in the pan, notching only five appearances the entire season. In fact, Solomon Hunt, the Cougars’ 6’9 275-pound man-child up front, was one of only two players to see action in every game.
KenPom.com’s Minutes Matrix helps us visualize the merry-go-round of lineups Irvin had to juggle last season. The blank spaces scattered throughout the chart below denotes games missed by player.
Take note of the five-game stretch in early December, which encompasses the aforementioned back to back efforts against SIUE and Tennessee State. This marked the only time all year when both Johnson and the younger Lewis (Andrew) were able to play together. Despite the Oral Roberts beatdown, the Cougs were competitive in four of those five games, an impressive feat with Davis MIA for last three games leading up to Christmas. By the oddsmakers’ standards, Chicago State played categorically better with the two slithery slashers in the lineup: the Cougars went 4-1 against-the-spread during that 5-game window.
Taking nothing away from the older Lewis, Andrew, it’s crystal clear how much Isaiah moved the needle last season. He was the only Cougar to shoot better than 34% from downtown and injected another nifty penetrator to the perimeter. Like the rest of the guards, the weight room is where he needs to hibernate this offseason, but he certainly has a bright future ahead of him.
Bottom Line: Continuity. That’s the silver lining for these Cougars heading into the 2021 campaign. Whether its new teams or revamped rosters, the WAC is undergoing a conference-wide makeover – not the case in Chicago. Bolstering the defense will be Irvin’s main mission this summer, but any Déjà vu of last year’s roster disablement will halt any impending momentum. Be kind, basketball Gods – karma is long overdue.