3MW’s All Conference Team:
Player of the Year: Jonah Radebaugh, Sr., Northern Colorado
Coach of the Year: Shantay Legans, Eastern Washington
Newcomer of the Year: Matt Hauser, R Sr., Portland State
Freshman of the Year: Derrick Carter-Hollinger, Fr., Montana
Season Storylines:
This year’s Big Sky was the second best in the KenPom, which spans all the way back to 2002. Eastern Washington rode its two stars, Mason Peatling and Jacob Davison, to an outright conference title, its first since 2015. Freshman Ellis Magnuson stepped into the starting five on day one and provided the Eagles with a steady presence at the point of attack. EWU is riding a seven-game winning streak heading into the postseason tournament.
While EWU was the outright champ, it was actually Northern Colorado who claimed the prize of “best analytical team”. Per KenPom, the Bears ranked 51 spots higher than the Eagles, a reflection of their ability to blowout opponents and play lockdown defense. Jonah Radebaugh stepped into the Jordan Davis role and exceeded all expectations, leading the conference in minutes played for the second consecutive year, assist rate, and ranking second in 3P%.
Montana had a shaky start to the season, going just 4-7 over its first 11 contests. The Griz found their rhythm in conference play, finishing the year 14-6, but they have lost three of their last four heading into the tourney. Barrett Peery’s Portland State Vikings rode the nation’s 7th best offensive rebounding rate and 40th fastest tempo to a fourth place Big Sky finish. PSU is feast or famine – it can beat any team in the league (wins over UNC and Montana) but also lose to anyone (lost at Idaho). Montana State improved its analytical ranking despite losing Tyler Hall from last season. First-year head coach and Bozeman legend Danny Sprinkle appears to have his program trending in the right direction. Northern Arizona was also much improved under a new coach. Sophomore Cameron Shelton exploded in his second season in Flagstaff.
In the lower regions of the league, Southern Utah and Weber State both disappointed in spectacular fashion. SUU had arguably the most talented roster in the Big Sky with several former Power 6 and high major transfers but couldn’t muster a .500 conference record after a promising non-con performance. Weber was ravaged by injuries, including to star guard Jerrick Harding, the best scorer in the league. Randy Rahe has succeeded in the postseason before, but the Wildcats may not be deep enough to sustain a run. Sacramento State tailed off in the second half of the year after starting out the season as an ATS darling. Idaho and Idaho State were both much improved under first-year coaches Zac Claus and Ryan Looney, respectively.
Tournament Preview
Boise, Idaho hosts the Big Sky tournament, which takes place March 11-14. The top three seeds receive byes while seeds 6-11 have to win four games in four days to capture the conference tourney crown. Eastern Washington, Northern Colorado, and Montana were the class of the league this season and should be considered the heavy favorites. Portland State, Southern Utah, and Weber State make for good dark horses, but I’d be shocked if the one of the top three didn’t end up with the auto-bid.
Tournament Predictions
(8) Weber State over (9) Sacramento State
(7) Southern Utah over (10) Idaho
(6) Northern Arizona over (11) Idaho State
(1) Eastern Washington over (8) Weber State
(4) Portland State over (5) Montana State
(2) Northern Colorado over (7) Southern Utah
(3) Montana over (6) Northern Arizona
(1) Eastern Washington over (4) Portland State
(2) Northern Colorado over (3) Montana
(2) Northern Colorado over (1) Eastern Washington
Almost chalk!