-Jim Root
Note: Predicted conference standings may not line up exactly with our Top 40 rankings; this is because Top 40 were ranked via consensus voting, while individual conference ranks are up to the specific writer.
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Luka Garza, Sr., Iowa
Coach of the Year: Greg Gard, Wisconsin
Newcomer of the Year: Joey Hauser, R So., Michigan St.
Freshman of the Year: Adam Miller, Illinois
Tier 1
1. Wisconsin
See full preview here: #13 in our Top-40 countdown
2. Illinois
See full preview here: #16 in our Top-40 countdown
3. Michigan State
See full preview here: #18 in our Top-40 countdown
4. Iowa
See full preview here: #17 in our Top-40 countdown
5. Purdue
See full preview here: #27 in our Top-40 countdown
6. Indiana
See full preview here: #24 in our Top-40 countdown
7. Ohio State
See full preview here: #25 in our Top-40 countdown
8. Rutgers
See full preview here: #29 in our Top-40 countdown
9. Michigan
See full preview here: #30 in our Top-40 countdown
Tier 2
10. Minnesota
Key Returners: Marcus Carr, Gabe Kalscheur, Isaiah Ihnen, Eric Curry (injury), Tre’ Williams
Key Losses: Daniel Oturu (pro), Alihan Demir, Payton Willis (grad transfer)
Key Newcomers: Liam Robbins (Drake), Brandon Johnson (Western Michigan), Jamal Mashburn Jr., Martice Mitchell, David Mutaf, Both Gach (Utah)***
*** - needs waiver - we expect him to receive one
Lineup:
Outlook: Minnesota was a victim of the outrageously strong Big Ten last season, going 15-16 overall but ranking highly in every analytical measure (27th KenPom, 27th T-Rank, 21st Haslametrics, etc.). Of course, the Gophers couldn’t even win the “the best team that would not have made the NCAA Tournament” crown thanks to Purdue’s own futility, and with the departure of double-double machine Daniel Oturu, Minnesota faces an uphill battle in another brutally competitive year for the B1G.
Oturu’s loss will be felt heavily on both ends of the floor, but we’ll focus on the offense to start. He was a get-out-of-jail-free card, someone the Gophers could dump the ball into whenever they needed a basket and feel comfortable that he’d create a quality shot, be it for himself or someone else. This roster looked like it would lack a similar threat: Eric Curry’s career has been plagued by injuries, Isaiah Ihnen is more of a stretch big, and Liam Robbins seemed like a long shot to receive an immediate eligibility waiver after moving away from his home state of Iowa. But getting Robbins eligible could be the game-changer, a huge (and surprising) personnel boost that might vault Minnesota up into the conference’s jumbled top tier. Robbins exploded during his sophomore campaign at Drake, and although he’s not going to be an exact replica of Oturu, he adds a true interior scorer to the fold. Both he and Western Michigan transfer Brandon Johnson, a decent finisher himself, will be undergoing quite a step up in competition against Big Ten post players, but the two transfers should prevent the paint from being a weakness.
Even with Robbins, a sizable burden will fall on the Gophers’ perimeter players, especially the ultra-dynamic Marcus Carr. Carr balanced his duties between scorer and facilitator quite well last year, and he ranked 24th in the entire country in assist rate, with many of those feeds going to Oturu. He’ll be counted on to create in pick-and-roll settings, an area in which he excelled last year, spraying the ball around and making strong reads against rotating defenses. Ihnen barely played through the season’s first 23 games, but he emerged late as a favorite target of Carr’s when foes sagged off the big man:
Carr is also a tremendous scorer himself (just ask Ohio State), capable of stepping back behind ball screens to bury a jumper or slashing all the way to the rim to lay it in or draw contact. He rarely left the floor last season, and for good reason - these are natural disaster numbers without him on offense:
The defensive attention he receives should open up jumpers for Gabe Kalscheur and Utah transfer Both Gach. Both wings suffered through sophomore shooting slumps last year at their respective schools, but Kalscheur’s stroke is pure, and bouncing back up towards the 41% success rate of his freshman campaign seems likely. Gach’s mechanics are a little dicier, but he could thrive in a more complementary role after being miscast at Utah. Like Robbins, Gach needs a waiver, but he transferred closer to home during the pandemic, so expect that to happen. Sophomore Tre’ Williams had a truly nightmarish freshman campaign (shot 28.2% from the floor, 27.0% from deep), but he has size and physical tools on the wing.
Richard Pitino also added a couple skilled scorers in his freshman class. Jamal Mashburn Jr., who is surprisingly not related to the NBA Jamal Mashburn (just kidding, of course he is), racked up points for a stacked Brewster Academy team last year; his only issue is his lack of size. At just 6’0, he’s definitely more of a bucket-getter than a creator, so he profiles well as a spark plug off the bench. At 3MW, we stan smallish scoring guards, especially ones with extremely cool fathers and smooth jump shots. Turkish guard David Mutaf is also known as a knockdown shooter, so he’ll get reps if Gach and Williams continue to struggle.
As for the other end of the floor, Oturu’s size and shot-blocking will be missed, as well. He did have some mobility issues, so playing some lineups with Ihnen and Johnson (or junior Jarvis Omersa or freshman Martice Mitchell) could give the Gophers more versatility, but the man-to-man scheme Pitino plays really benefits from a rim protector. He has his guards extend on the perimeter to run foes off the three-point line (24th nationally in defensive 3PA rate), forcing them to put the ball on the floor. Once again, Robbins looms large, as his ability to erase things at the bucket alters the opponent’s mindset. Per hoop-explorer.com, foes shot 52.7% at the rim when Oturu was out there defending it, but that number leapt to 57.8% when he went to the bench, so Robbins will need to provide a reasonable facsimile to that effect.
Despite extending to take away jumpers, the scheme is still conservative – Minnesota does not foul and does not force turnovers, instead banking on opponents missing shots. Therein lies another problem: the Gophers have been largely below average on the defensive glass under Pitino, and they lose their rebounding stalwart in Oturu. Johnson, Ihnen, Robbins, and a healthy Curry are solid on the glass, but they’ll need more help from the guards to actually turn this into a strength.
Bottom Line: Carr’s presence gives the Gophers a nice, stable floor, as his offensive arsenal makes the players around him better. Robbins’ eligibility boosts the ceiling as well, and Ihnen oozes potential. The rest of the league’s arms race could be what undoes a promising Gopher roster, though. Pitino has finished .500 or better in the Big Ten just once in seven seasons at Minnesota (conference record: 48-82, 36.9%), and if the Gophers lag behind the pack again, his seat could get toasty.
11. Penn State
Key Returners: Myreon Jones, Myles Dread, Jamari Wheeler, Izaiah Brockington, Seth Lundy, John Harrar
Key Losses: Lamar Stevens, Mike Watkins, Curtis Jones
Key Newcomers: Dallion Johnson, DJ Gordon, Caleb Dorsey, Abdou Tsimbila, Patrick Kelly (redshirt), Sam Sessoms (Binghamton)***
*** - needs waiver to play right away
Lineup:
Outlook: Here’s a fun little bit of trivia: only five Big Ten teams have finished inside the KenPom top 43 in each of the last three seasons: Michigan State, Michigan, Maryland, Purdue, and…Penn State (Ohio State was 44th in 2019). At long last, Pat Chambers appears to have the Nittany Lions built into a consistent competitor, although that tidbit glosses over the fact that Penn State has gone just 27-31 in league play over that three-year span. Last year’s squad actually sat alone in 2nd in the B1G as late as February 22nd, and despite a late skid where they lost five of their final six games, the Nittany Lions were assured of earning Chambers’ first NCAA bid in Happy Valley (9th season).
The heart of the recent competitive run has been the defense, anchored by the versatile and powerfully built frontcourt duo of Lamar Stevens and Mike Watkins. Without them, Chambers’ physical man-to-man system will be tested, particularly against the conference’s army of talented big men. Throughout his career, Watkins was always a menace in the paint, and according to hoop-explorer, foes shot a dismal 49.0% at the rim when he was on the court last year, compared to 55.9% when he sat, per hoop-explorer. That 56% is still a solid number, but a lot will be asked of John Harrar to replace Watkins’ presence. Harrar is a vastly different player – less dynamic as a shot-blocker nor as dominant on the glass – but the defense remained stellar overall when he took the court. Freshman Abdou Tsimbila may have to play minutes behind Harrar, because the Nittany Lions’ frontcourt is quite thin.
The larger concern might actually be the loss of Stevens, a brick house at 6’8, 225-pounds and a defensive ace capable of guarding four (and sometimes five) positions. Seth Lundy should step into Stevens’ spot in the lineup, and he lacks the same foot speed and physicality as his predecessor. In particular, note the massive change in free throw rate when Stevens hit the bench:
Though those defensive numbers are slightly inflated by poor three-point shooting luck, the fact still remains that Lundy’s struggles often compromised the integrity of the defense. That contributed to the high foul rate, as foes got to the rim more consistently and put Penn State’s big men between a rock (giving up a lay-up) and a hard place (committing a foul). Three-star recruit Caleb Dorsey, redshirt freshman Patrick Kelly, and veteran Trent Buttrick will fight for minutes behind Lundy (in that order, I’d guess), with defense surely going to be their path onto the floor.
Of course, you also probably noticed the uptick on the offensive end in the above Hoop Lens screenshot. As important as Stevens was as an offensive power plant at the elbow and in the mid-post, his game involved a ton of inefficient mid-range jumpers, which lowered the team’s ceiling on that end. His teammates definitely benefited from the attention he received, and he ranked 3rd in the entire conference in usage, but it’s possible the Nittany Lions’ offense sees a boost with those possessions being allocated elsewhere. Lundy is a much better shooter than Stevens was, and he’s an obvious candidate to double his scoring average (or more) from last season.
Last year was actually Chambers’ second-best offense during his time in State College, and a big reason for that was the stellar play of PSU’s backcourt. Myreon Jones and Myles Dread were outstanding as sophomores, and the team’s collective ability to take care of the ball allowed Chambers to push the tempo, playing at the fastest pace of his tenure. According to Synergy, 21.3% of Penn State’s possessions took place in transition, the 20th-highest rate in the country, and with the return of the entire starting backcourt (Jones, Dread, and Jamari Wheeler), expect the gas pedal to remain firmly pressed.
Once in the half court, Jones will take on a bigger role as an initiator, as he was the team’s best pick-and-roll operator last year, showcasing strong patience to manipulate the defense’s rotations:
He’s also a deadly perimeter sniper despite an unconventional, almost Lonzo Ball-esque release. Dread is more of a complementary threat as a ball mover and shooter (204 of his 242 field goal attempts were threes), and Wheeler is almost invisible in the half court, though defenses do need to respect his shot (38.9% on low volume). Izaiah Brockington adds an athletic slashing element off the bench and is an excellent multi-positional defender, while freshmen Dallion Johnson and DJ Gordon will battle for minutes as the fifth guard. Johnson offers more offensive pop with his dynamic scoring mindset, while the lankier Gordon has more potential as a three-and-D complementary piece.
Chambers has been known to play through the post at times (primarily Watkins and Stevens last year), but that may not be an option this season unless he’s attacking some mismatches with Lundy. Harrar is more of a high-energy, opportunistic player who will fight for boards and only shoot if it’s a lay-up or dunk.
Bottom Line: The losses of Stevens and Watkins hurt on both ends of the floor, but Chambers has done a commendable job building depth in his program through recent recruiting classes. Jones can be an all-conference guard, and Lundy’s inevitable breakout should allow the Nittany Lions to put points on the board, but finding a way to compensate for his defensive deficiencies will be crucial. Fans in Happy Valley have to be fuming over missing out on the Big Dance, but even with the graduation of the stalwart senior duo, PSU has a chance to reach those heights once again – if it can survive a savage Big Ten slate.
12. Maryland
Key Returners: Eric Ayala, Aaron Wiggins, Darryl Morsell, Donta Scott
Key Losses: Jalen Smith (pro), Anthony Cowan
Key Newcomers: Marcus Dockery, Aquan Smart, Galin Smith (Alabama), Arnaud Revaz, Jairus Hamilton (Boston College)***
*** - needs waiver to play right away
Lineup:
Outlook: By my calculation, a few teams should be more upset than the rest about COVID-19 crumpling up the 2020 postseason and chucking it in the trash. Among those are Dayton, San Diego State, and BYU – schools with their best teams in decades that had a chance to hit heights never before seen in the program’s history. Maryland doesn’t quite qualify for that, considering it won a national title in 2002, but Mark Turgeon specifically has every right to be peeved. He had the best team of his career, objectively, and had a chance to alter the narrative around his “frustrating in the postseason” reputation. Capturing a share of the Big Ten title was nice, but plenty more was on the table.
This year’s team welcomes back four of only six guys who earned significant playing time; the Terrapins ranked 346th nationally in bench minutes as Turgeon leaned heavily on his core rotation. That may have contributed to the flurry of transfers last year and this offseason, with five scholarship players departing from College Park. It might feel harsh to tank Maryland this far down the standings after losing just two rotation pieces, but calling Anthony Cowan and Jalen Smith “two rotation pieces” is like calling Tom Cruise and Matt Damon “two supporting actors.” Both Terps made the five-man First Team All-Big Ten squad (I hate that I have to clarify that it’s a five-man team), exemplifying just how crucial those “two rotation pieces” were. They were the fulcrums of the Terrapins’ system on both ends of the court, but the offense is where the impact will be felt most profoundly.
Both were good enough to run the offense through, with Cowan’s quickness and strong passing vision allowing him to get into the paint at will and Smith’s strength and versatility making him a nightmare matchup. Smith even became a legitimate perimeter threat, hitting 41.2% of his threes in Big Ten play, further opening the floor for Cowan and the rest of the team’s drivers. This year’s offense will look very different, as there’s no true point guard or true center on the roster to fill in for either guy.
Eric Ayala and Darryl Morsell will likely handle the rock by committee, with freshman combo guards Marcus Dockery and Aquan Smart contributing as much as possible. Ayala and Morsell have the advantage of size for the position, allowing them to see over defenders and survey the off-ball motion that Turgeon’s offense entails. That should also allow them to bully their way to the hoop at times against smaller guards. Dockery is a smooth lefty scorer who is more comfortable off the ball, and he actually pairs well with Ayala or Morsell given his smallish size for a wing. Smart is a blended version of them all – in between size, scoring instincts but also a smart passer when he draws double-teams.
However, this group lacks Cowan’s top end speed to get out in transition and his quickness to beat defenders off the dribble, so the Terps will need to manufacture more team offense in the half court than in the past. Aaron Wiggins, the team’s leading returning scorer, will be a big part of that, a talented wing who can score inside and out. Turgeon will try to get him on the move against defenders, whether that be via off ball screens or handoffs:
He should be in line for a points per game bump up into the high teens this season as Maryland’s featured offensive weapon.
Without Smith, the frontcourt is a flashing neon question mark, as he was the team’s only true interior threat, a dominant shot-blocker (2nd in the league in block rate), and almost single-handedly made the Terps an above average defensive rebounding team. The drop-off in paint numbers when he left the court was stark:
Some combination of Donta Scott, Alabama grad transfer Galin Smith, Swiss freshman Arnaud Revaz, and oft-injured string bean Chol Marial are essentially the only options outside of going small (which will likely happen quite a bit). Scott has the skill to make a freshman-to-sophomore leap, and with more shots available, he’ll have the opportunity to do so, as well. Boston College transfer Jairus Hamilton would be a big lift, and waivers are easy to come by this offseason, but the NCAA has yet to hand down a decision.
None of those guys are proven glass eaters at all, especially on the defensive end. Wiggins and Morsell do a solid job from the guard spots, but Turgeon needs someone to step up as the (Jalen) Smith/Bruno Fernando/Robert Carter primary rebounder. Marial has the length to impact the game inside, but his sustainability in playing a heavy minutes load is no sure thing, and Revaz fits the classical archetype of “skilled European big” while lacking Big Ten physicality. Thus, that duty likely falls to (Galin) Smith, who has the requisite size but not the explosion.
Fortunately, the perimeter boasts one of the league’s best perimeter defenders in Morsell, and Ayala and Wiggins made real strides last year as well. Turgeon’s scheme aims to keep foes out of the paint and force jumpers, which should ease the burden on the thin big man rotation. Again, though – the Terps will need to finish possessions on the defensive glass.
Bottom Line: With a thin roster and lacking in impactful frontcourt players, this feels like a transition year for the Terrapins. The Ayala/Morsell/Wiggins trio would ordinarily be enough to keep the bottom from falling out, but in a hyper-competitive Big Ten where the margins are razor thin, the Terps’ flaws seem more pronounced than many of their foes. That said, I have all of these “Tier 2” teams (Minnesota, Penn State, and Maryland) in my top 60, so the Terrapins could get to NCAA Tournament-caliber if Dockery and Smith are able to make meaningful positive impacts right away.
Tier 3
13. Nebraska
Key Returners: Thorir Thorbjarnson, Yvan Ouedraogo
Key Losses: Cam Mack (pro), Dachon Burke (pro), Jervay Green (transfer), Haanif Cheatham, Kevin Cross (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Dalano Banton (WKU), Trey McGowens (Pitt), Kobe Webster (Western Illinois), Shamiel Stevenson (Pitt), Derrick Walker (Tennessee), Teddy Allen (JUCO), Lat Mayen (JUCO), Eduardo Andre, Elijah Wood
Lineup:
Lakes is expected to sit this year, per reports.
*** - On 10/5, McGowens received his waiver from the NCAA. That likely bumps Webster into a “microwave scorer off the bench” role, with McGowens sliding into the starting SG spot. It raises the Huskers’ ceiling, affording them a better shot at cracking the Minnesota / Penn St. / Maryland group above, and gives Hoiberg more perimeter depth with which he can fully install his run-and-gun style. We want Hoi-ball!
Outlook: As big fans of Fred Hoiberg’s tenure at Iowa State, we at 3MW are jazzed for his return to the college ranks. His free-flowing, transition-heavy style was always a joy to watch in Ames, and “The Mayor” will likely bring a similar attack to Lincoln. Whether that radical style will work in the knockdown, drag-out Big Ten remains to be seen, but Hoiberg was a consistent winner with the Cyclones, and he’s a good bet to energize a Nebraska hoops program that has made just one NCAA Tournament since 1998.
Hang on – you’re telling me this is his second season at Nebraska? And the ‘Huskers went 7-25 (2-18) with buy game losses to UC Riverside, Southern Utah, and North Dakota in his first campaign?
*Gulps nervously*
In Hoiberg’s defense, he had to completely overhaul the roster upon arrival, cobbling together a misfit bunch of JUCO players, Division I transfers, and lightly-regarded freshmen that ranked 352nd in KenPom’s minutes continuity (which was dead last, because Merrimack didn’t count). That doesn’t fully excuse the disaster that was #Nebrasketball, though, and with another offseason of significant roster upheaval, it’s fair to be concerned over the possibility of a repeat catastrophe.
So much of what Hoiberg wants to do offensively centers around spacing and quick strikes from the perimeter; the Cornhuskers ranked 5th nationally in average possession length on offense. Unfortunately, last year’s roster was starved for efficient shooting threats. Only Thorir Thorbjarnarson shot over 35% from deep, and even he only made 48 triples (which also led the team). That’s a far cry from the Iowa State offensive juggernauts that poured in shots from the perimeter. Comparing the percentages from last year to Hoiberg’s Iowa State tenure easily illustrates that issue:
Hence, recycling the roster again. Thorbjarnarson is one of two impact returners, and the massive class of newcomers offers several new weapons. Kobe Webster is a career 37.4% three-point shooter on 492 attempts, and he could thrive as a complementary option after being tasked with carrying an awful Western Illinois team for three straight years. Teddy Allen has been all over the map, but if he’s on the court, he’s an instant bucket and potent transition weapon, both inside and outside, and fellow JUCO transfer Lat Mayen and Pitt transfer Shamiel Stevenson can stretch the floor in the frontcourt. Another Pitt transfer, Trey McGowens, would add more offensive punch (and also would benefit from more talent around him), but he will need a waiver to play right away.
Webster will play some point guard, but the primary ball-handler will likely be 6’9 slender man Dalano Banton, a unique piece given his size and ball skills. The former top-100 recruit struggled in his debut season at Western Kentucky, but he has strong passing vision and can use his length to take advantage of the Cornhuskers’ spacing and get to the rim. He’s not blindingly fast, but he should be able to make astute passes ahead to ignite the break.
Even more problematic than the team’s lack of shooting, though, was its nightmarish performance on the glass. Only Yvan Ouedrago, the other returner, was comfortable in the paint, and Nebraska was a contender for worst two-way rebounding team in the country (327th in offensive not rebounding, 335th in defensive rebounding). Stevenson is a fortress of a human being, and Derrick Walker, Allen, and Mayen all bring the requisite size and athletic ability to contribute on the boards, so Hoiberg will have the luxury of playing smallish without completely capitulating on the glass. Freshman Eduardo Andre will push Ouedrago for minutes at center, and Banton has the physical tools to be an elite rebounding guard, so there’s a chance this Husker team sees a drastic improvement. Hoiberg’s Iowa State teams did great work on the defensive boards, and recreating that success will help key the transition attack.
The swing factor for Nebraska will likely be the play of Allen and Stevenson as versatile matchup problems on the offensive end. Both have serious question marks: Allen knows how to score, but he butted heads with Bob Huggins at West Virginia, ultimately leaving Morgantown and spending a year at Wichita State before being kicked off the team there, as well. His talent has never been a question, though, and he knows this may be his last chance to make basketball work after an extremely difficult childhood and adolescence. Stevenson, meanwhile, is more a question of rust: he’s played only 32 minutes of competitive basketball since March 2018, leaving Pitt in December 2018 and then opting out of playing at Nevada after Eric Musselman left, only to be denied a waiver last year. Both players can be major difference-makers in Hoiberg’s system; players with similar games to theirs certainly have been. If they both deliver, Nebraska’s ceiling raises considerably.
Bottom Line: With more size all across the roster and an influx of additional efficient shooting, Nebraska should measurably improve on both ends of the ball. The talent level is higher, and it should enable Hoiberg to more ably implement his style. Last year’s team was so far behind the pack, though, that even a significant jump still likely leaves the Huskers in the conference’s bottom two. Finishing higher than that is possible if Allen stays on the straight and narrow and becomes the star he looked like at West Virginia in 2017-18 (and last year at Western Nebraska), but this placement (13th) feels like the “median” outcome given the risks embedded on this roster.
14. Northwestern
Key Returners: Boo Buie, Miller Kopp, Ryan Young, Pete Nance, Robbie Beran, Anthony Gaines (injury)
Key Losses: Pat Spencer, A.J. Turner
Key Newcomers: Chase Audige (William & Mary), Ty Berry, Matt Nicholson
Lineup:
Outlook: In the two team “race” for the Big Ten’s basement in 2019-20, Northwestern managed to win – er, lose? – that competition, as the Wildcats were better than Nebraska, both analytically and in the league’s final standings. That is the slightest of moral victories, though: per KenPom, the Wildcats were still 98 spots adrift of the 12th-best B1G team, and they managed just one non-Nebraska conference victory all year. Northwestern also brought joy to Jon Rothstein’s life by losing three buy games last year (to Merrimack, Radford, and Hartford), and though two of those teams ultimately won their conferences, Chicago’s Big Ten Team should not be taking losses like that.
Hope for improvement lies with a young core that was thrown into the fire last year. Four freshmen played significant roles in the rotation, and the Wildcats ranked 309th in the country in weighted experience. The most crucial of that group may be Boo Buie, the team’s most dynamic perimeter weapon and a potent creator in the pick-and-roll. He missed the team’s first five games after the New Year and was limited at times after that, putting too great a burden on Pat Spencer, the rare “grad transfer playing his first year of collegiate hoops.” Spencer did an admirable job in a demanding role, but a healthy Buie raises the ceiling of the Wildcat offense. Four-star recruit Ty Berry adds another ball-handler with some flair, though over-relying on a freshman is traditionally not a route to an efficient offense.
Both Buie and Berry will be asked to run a ton of pick-and-roll, an offensive staple that Chris Collins returned to after a brief attempt at a more positionless, spread attack in 2018-19. Synergy play type data highlights this drastic change, and perhaps unsurprisingly, that was the Wildcats’ worst attack in recent history:
Stick to what you know, I guess. Buie ranked in the 57th percentile nationally in PnR efficiency, a solid mark as a freshman in a power conference, and he should mature as the engine of the offense in year two.
To give him more space to operate, he may play alongside Berry at times, as well. Veterans Ryan Greer and Anthony Gaines don’t offer much offensive punch, and they could get buried behind William & Mary transfer Chase Audige, a powerful wing with plenty of upside. He knocked down 37.5% of his triples in his first college campaign, and following his sit-out year, he should be a strong complementary scorer in the Big Ten. Miller Kopp will start on the other wing, a 6’7 junior who makes up for his lack of physicality by bending the court with his shooting.
Up front, the Wildcats have a bevy of size to play with, ranking 14th in the country in effective height (only factors in PF and C). Ryan Young is a true center, fitting the throwback archetype as a ground-bound bruiser – he doesn’t swat shots and is not a perimeter threat. This makes it tough to use him as roll man in the team’s PnR schemes, as he doesn’t have much gravity as a lob threat. Pete Nance and Robbie Beran are more versatile options up front, with Nance being more of a vertical threat and Beran a true floor spacer (40.0% from deep as a freshman). Both were 4-star recruits out of high school, so the pedigree is there, but they’ll need to shore up some weaknesses in their games to be effective Big Ten players this year. Promising big man Jared Jones transferred, so thin freshman Matt Nicholson may be pressed into duty right away, although it might behoove Collins to experiment with more small-ball lineups with Kopp as a stretch four instead.
As a stylistic choice, Collins had his squad largely ignore the offensive glass, which feels like a missed opportunity given the considerable size that’s always on the court. Part of the reasoning for that choice is to build a stout transition defense. Northwestern ranked 323rd nationally in average possession length on defense, an indication of how Collins’ conservative approach was able to elongate possessions and force foes to play against the shot clock.
The Wildcats’ overall lack of athleticism definitely hurt it on the defensive end, though. They ranked 351st nationally in steal rate and 347th in assist rate, evidencing how little pressure and influence the Purple Cats were able to exert over opponents’ approaches. Collins mixed in zone on 21.3% of possessions, a logical move for a team that lacked disruptive perimeter defenders and constantly played two bigs, but patient teams could pick that apart and find open three after open three. With Berry and Buie (plus a healthy Gaines), Collins can play some quicker lineups, and Audige’s physical tools could allow him to be a lockdown wing defender, but the Wildcats will still lack rim protection.
Bottom Line: Collins has consistently brought in talented recruits over the past few offseasons, and adding Audige to the mix boosts the athleticism level, as well. Buie could be a star at point guard with more refinement to his game, and Berry gives him a possible long-term running mate on both ends. The problem is that Northwestern simply has not been difficult to play against. The offense is not particularly complex and lacks the depth of shooting to strain opponents, and the defensive system will not harass opponents at all, be it on the perimeter or in the paint. Until the Wildcats are able to find ways to more ably dictate how the game is played, the rest of the Big Ten will continue to assert its will against them.