-Jim Root
Key Returners: Isaiah Livers, Franz Wagner, Eli Brooks, Brandon Johns
Key Losses: Zavier Simpson, Jon Teske, David DeJulius (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Hunter Dickinson, Zeb Jackson, Terrance Williams, Mike Smith (Columbia), Chaundee Brown (transfer)***
*** - needs waiver to play right away
Lineup:
Outlook: It was hard to know what to expect from Michigan last year. With Juwan Howard in his first year both as a head coach and in the collegiate ranks at all, plus a roster that lost three key underclassmen to the draft, the range of outcomes was massive. No one doubted Howard’s charisma or devotion to the school, but how would he handle the rigors of leading a college program? He smartly brought in a star-studded group of assistants, retaining Saddi Washington from John Beilein’s staff and adding long-time head coach Phil Martelli (plus veteran NBA assistant Howard Eisley), and the Wolverines stunned many pundits (including us) by winning the loaded Battle 4 Atlantis tournament over Thanksgiving. Sure, they lost eight of their next 12 games after that, but injuries played a role there, and it’s hard to call Howard’s maiden voyage anything but a success.
Year two brings its own challenges, most notably replacing two senior stalwarts in PG Zavier Simpson and C Jon Teske, each of whom greatly impacted winning on both ends of the court. A tumultuous offseason added to the difficulty, with potential starting point guard David DeJulius transferring to Cincinnati and 5-star recruits Isaiah Todd and Josh Christopher spurning Ann Arbor for the G-League and Arizona State, respectively. So where does that leave Howard & Co.?
It’s impossible to ignore the impact of Simpson’s departure, considering just how much of the Wolverine offense revolved around his creation in the pick-and-roll. Using data from Hoop-Explorer.com, we can see the impact that his presence had on the team’s three primary returners:
Perhaps the most important takeaway there is the line of Eli Brooks, who actually became more efficient when given more of a creation burden. On the other hand, Franz Wagner had a massive drop-off when asked to do more (not pictured: his turnover rate skyrocketing from 11.1% to 30.8%), evidencing how much he struggled at times as a freshman. His skill set and basketball IQ should lead to improvement in that area, but those numbers definitely put up a red flag on automatically assuming he’ll be a monster in a bigger role. Isaiah Livers was unaffected; the man just kept raining in jumpers, regardless of who shared the floor with him.
Either Brooks or Columbia grad transfer Mike Smith will become the primary ball-handler, but neither is the same kind of PnR wizard that Simpson was, which means Howard could fundamentally alter how his team runs offense. Last year, Michigan derived offense from pick-and-rolls (either via shot or pass) on 37.6% of possessions, per Synergy, the 9th-highest rate in the country, and the Wolverines graded out in the 96th percentile on them, thanks in large part to Mr. Simpson’s 20/20 court vision. Though he is competent, Smith is better at getting his own shot, and he’ll be facing much stiffer competition in the Big Ten. Zeb Jackson is kind of an unknown after getting buried behind a laughably talented perimeter group at Montverde Academy, but that’s also often a great way to find underrated recruiting gems.
As a result, expect more action to be run for Wagner and Livers, the team’s two toughest matchups given their combinations of size and skill. Their versatility also gives Howard a ton of lineup optionality, as they can each play on the wing or slide down as a small-ball four in a pinch. Both can be high-efficiency gunners from deep, but Wagner especially has pro scouts drooling thanks to his self-creation potential at his size:
The slight hesitation step at the free throw line to make Kofi Cockburn drop his guard slightly is an advanced chess move. Plus, Wagner’s development was stunted slightly after missing some of the preseason and the first four games of the season; he clearly improved as the year went on, averaging 15.9 PPG over the final seven games, compared to 10.1 PPG in his first 20 contests. The most optimistic views of Michigan’s season involve Wagner blossoming into a true offensive star. Livers is more of a finished product, but when that product is “40% three-point shooter who never turns it over,” that’s a compliment.
Depth behind them is limited, though, especially if Chaundee Brown doesn’t get his waiver, as is currently expected at the time of this writing. Freshman Terrance Williams should earn minutes almost by default, and he joins the team with a Big Ten-ready physique as a ‘tweener forward.
The frontcourt also has some flexibility, particularly with Brandon Johns as a big body who enables five-out lineups where the Wolverines flood the court with shooters. He was one of many Michigan bench players to blossom in a complementary role last year, and his activity level on both ends of the court makes him a key piece heading into this season. Austin Davis is the likely starter at center and the Teske replacement as the roll man in Howard’s PnR sets, and he carved out a solid role as a finisher during conference play last year.
Davis may just be a caretaker for that role, though, as prized big man recruit Hunter Dickinson arrives from DeMatha Catholic in Maryland. The 7’1 monster has the physical tools to become a Teske-like space-eating terror on the defensive end, though it may take some time to master the footwork and angles that made his predecessor so great. He also adds a post up threat on the offensive end, using his size to gain positioning and finishing with a soft lefty touch.
The defensive scheme should require far less tweaking than the offense, as Howard’s predominantly man-to-man alignment forced the 3rd-highest rate of mid-range jumpers in the country, per hoop-math. Part of that was having a bulldog of an on-ball defender in Simpson and a true rim protector in Teske, and Brooks and Smith will have to fill that perimeter spot this season. Even if the individual pieces aren’t quite up to the level of last year’s defensive dynamos, the length and athleticism on the roster, combined with the strong principles that are clearly in place, should keep the floor fairly high on this end (top 50ish in AdjDE?).
Bottom Line: Howard has earned the trust of the Weave, and despite some questions in terms of offensive creation and scheme, the Wolverines remain in the deep and talented Tier 1 of the Big Ten. That should equate to a tournament bid, and the upside is absolutely there if Wagner has the star turn that many expect and Dickinson is able to control the paint early on in his career. The margins are extremely thin between the top of the B1G and the Wolverines, so it really won’t take much to surge up toward the top of the standings. If the start of last season is any indication, Howard and the Wolverines are plenty capable of pulling a few surprises.