-Ky McKeon
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Jalen Ray, R Sr., Hofstra
Coach of the Year: Pat Kelsey, Charleston
Newcomer of the Year: Takal Molson, R Sr., James Madison
Freshman of the Year: Tyler Rice, Fr., William & Mary
Tier 1
1. James Madison
Key Returners: Vado Morse, Julien Wooden, Justin Amadi, Terell Strickland, Terrence Edwards, Jalen Hodge
Key Losses: Matt Lewis, Michael Christmas, Zach Jacobs, Jayvis Harvey
Key Newcomers: Takal Molson (Seton Hall), Charles Falden (Winthrop), Alonzo Sule (Texas State), Tyree Ihenacho (North Dakota)
Lineup:
Outlook: Year one of the Mark Byington era was a rousing success. James Madison split the regular season CAA title with a sterling 8-2 record, the program’s highest conference win total since 2016. Yes, in Louis Rowe’s four seasons, with an 18-game schedule, he never won eight conference games. Yikes.
Byington also improved the Dukes’ preseason KenPom rank 95 spots by season’s end, and he captured the league’s Coach of the Year Award. He accomplished this despite the shortened offseason and some injury trouble. Of course, it helped having Matt Lewis, the CAA’s Player of the Year, but Lewis was also a stud under Rowe. Byington was able to lift the entire program in just his first season at the helm.
Lewis is gone, but Byington returns six guys with starting experience and brings in four DI transfers who all started at their previous school. His Dukes will be incredibly deep and look to be a surefire CAA favorite.
Vado Morse will be the leader this season, a 3rd Team All-CAA selection last year after coming over from Mount St. Mary’s. Morse will initiate Byington’s spread pick-n-roll attack and continue to provide reliable shooting from outside the arc.
His returning backcourt brethren include Terell Strickland and Jalen Hodge. Strickland is an on-ball defensive menace and a secondary ball-handler on the offensive end. He started nearly every game last season but likely comes off the bench in favor of the incoming transfers. Hodge, formerly of ULM, is a career 40% 3P shooter against DI competition, and that will be his role for JMU this season. He’s a microwave type player who Byington can plug into the lineup for instance trey bombs.
Terrence Edwards returns on the wing looking to blossom in his sophomore campaign. He sported great rebounding numbers for his position and is a versatile asset on both ends of the floor. He’ll be in play for Lewis’s starting spot, but in all likelihood comes off the pine behind Seton Hall transfer Takal Molson.
While Molson isn’t a perfect replica of Lewis, he’s a pretty damn good replacement. Molson was the 2018 MAAC Rookie of the Year in 2018 and a 1st Team All-MAAC selection in 2019 at Canisius prior to transferring to Seton Hall.
He struggled with the Pirates but had his moments, and Kevin Willard trusted him enough to give him nearly 20 MPG. Now in the CAA, Molson should get back to his dominating ways. He has a strong build and likes to bully opponents to the rim; it’s not crazy to consider him a CAA Player of the Year candidate heading into 2021-22.
JMU’s starting frontcourt duo of Julien Wooden and Justin Amadi returns, giving the Dukes an extremely versatile lineup on both ends of the floor. Wooden can play the 4 or 5, shoot the 3, score inside, rebound, and run the floor. Amadi, a CAA All-Rookie selection in ’20-21, is an athletic forward who ranked 4th in the CAA in FT rate last season. Like Wooden, he can defend multiple positions on the defensive end. Both players’ mobility fits perfectly into Byington’s uptempo system, and their athleticism is a boon to his 1-3-1 zone looks.
Texas State transfer Alonzo Sule will bolster the frontcourt and could find himself in the starting lineup at times this year depending on matchup. He started every game for the Sun Belt title winners and provides service on the glass and the defensive end. While not a huge asset offensively, Sule is rock-solid at doing the little things on the floor that help win ball games.
Backcourt transfers Charles Falden (Winthrop) and Tyree Ihenacho (North Dakota) will both play huge roles this season and push the incumbents for starting honors. Falden started every game for a VERY good Winthrop squad, earned HM All-Big South honors, and is a money shooter from distance. Ihenacho was the Summit League Freshman of the Year in 2021 and ranked 3rd in the conference in assist rate while shooting over 39% from 3 in league play. He’s the whole package, an athletic, long wing who can play on or off the ball and defend multiple positions. Ihenacho ranked 6th in the Summit in steal rate last season.
Byington’s three-man freshman class projects a bright future for the JMU program. Devon Savage is a good-sized wing with plenty of shooting range. Andrew McConnell, a 3-star combo guard, is a cash money shooter and smooth with the ball in his hands. Jaylen Stinson adds depth at point guard. All three could play big roles in the future but are likely behind the 10 vets this season.
Let’s quickly talk scheme. On offense Byington likes his team to run – JMU was the fastest team in the CAA last season, looking to push in transition whenever possible. His squads take good shots at the rim or behind the arc, rarely settling for 2-point jumpers. The Dukes ranked 11th in the nation in FT rate last season, using their ball screen-heavy offense to attack the rim and rack up trips to the foul line. With the mobility of Byington’s bigs, JMU spreads it out in the half-court and rarely plays through the post.
Defensively, Byington likes to implement a bit of full-court pressure, and plans to increase that this season per Blue Ribbon. In the halfcourt he’ll show man-to-man and zone looks, particularly a funky 1-3-1 morphing zone that traps opposing ball handlers. JMU led the CAA in turnover rate last year and it was the first season in nearly a decade the program was actually good at causing mayhem on the defensive end. JMU could stand to improve denying looks from the perimeter. The Dukes allowed nearly the highest rate of 3PA in the country last year and were fortunate opponents missed at a high clip. Three-point variance can be boom or bust.
Bottom Line: JMU is a dangerous team this season despite losing the reigning CAA POY. Mark Byington is an excellent coach and now had a full offseason to implement his schemes and philosophy. The talent on the roster is arguably the best in the league, especially if Molson can rediscover the A-game he showed at Canisius. The Dukes are in prime position to get to their first NCAA Tournament since 2013.
2. Northeastern
Key Returners: Jahmyl Telfort, Shaquille Walters, Jason Strong, Coleman Stucke, Quirin Emanga, Chris Doherty
Key Losses: Tyson Walker, Greg Eboigbodin
Key Newcomers: Joe Pridgen (UNC Wilmington), Tyreek Scott-Grayson (UAB), Glen McClintock (Air Force), Nikola Djogo (Notre Dame)
Lineup:
Outlook: Yet another strong season for Bill Coen is in the history books. His Huskies went 8-2 in the CAA for a share of the regular season title, upended UMass in the non-con slate, and nearly upset Syracuse and Old Dominion. Coen always seems to get more out of his team than paper says he should – last season his Huskies were very young and still were among the better mid-majors in the country. 2021-22 will be Coen’s 16th season as head coach in Boston. He loses the fantastic Tyson Walker to Michigan State, but this year’s squad is deep and experienced. That combined with Coen’s coaching repertoire is a recipe for Colonial success.
Walker is a massive loss, so we can’t just gloss over the fact he’s gone. Northeastern was putrid – and I mean PUTRID – when Walker was off the floor last season:
Info per Hoop-Explorer
Yes, you are reading that correctly. When Walker sat, Northeastern scored 81.5 points per 100 possessions. The worst offense in the country last season (Mississippi Valley State) scored 79.4 P/100 possessions and the second-worst (Alabama State) scored 84.4 P/100 possessions. Though the sample size is small, the eye test last year 100% backs up the hopelessness of the Huskies when their leader was off the floor. If Northeastern is to compete for a CAA title and Tourney berth, it must improve on this end.
Coen’s a brilliant coach and his offenses are intricate motion attacks that spread the floor and prioritize 3-point looks. He has the shooters to be successful on this end, but he needs a catalyst to get things started. Per his discussion with Blue Ribbon, Coen plans on playing Shaquille Walters at point this year, which is enticing from a defensive perspective but a wait-and-see on the offensive end. Walters improved his outside shot last season and will be a veteran leader on this year’s squad, but he turned the ball over a considerable amount in ’20-21. How will he adjust with the ball in his hands more?
UAB transfer Tyreek Scott-Grayson and Air Force transfer Glen McClintock can both run point, but neither have ample experience doing so. Scott-Grayson is probably better off the ball with his 6’5” frame and shooting ability. McClintock started 17 games for a bad Air Force team but was often used as a spot-up threat in the corner. In conclusion, the point guard spot is by far the biggest question mark for Northeastern heading into the season.
The Huskies are loaded on the wing – in fact Coen could start five wings on any given night without thinking too much about it. Reigning CAA Sixth Man of the Year Jahmyl Telfort returns for his sophomore season on the heels of an All-Rookie season. Telfort could explode in 2021-22, and he showed a preview of that explosion by dropping 30 against Drexel in Northeastern’s final game of last year.
Coen likely starts Telfort this year at the 4, but the 6’7” forward is too versatile to be siloed into one position. He can handle the ball on the perimeter, shoot from outside the arc, bully his way into the paint, and score inside. The sky is the limit for Telfort this season.
Jason Strong, Coleman Stucke, and Quirin Emanga also return to fill a spot in the 2-4 rotation. Strong is a stretch forward who started 17 games last year. He’s not quite as versatile as Telfort but still a solid option to plug into the frontcourt. Stucke started every game as a freshman despite posting a 93.2 O-rating and shooting 33% from deep. That tells me he’s a “coach’s guy” – every team has a “coach’s guy”, a player who inexplicably plays a ton of minutes because the coach sees something in him most others do not. That isn’t to say Stucke is bad or doesn’t have potential – he’s a solid player in his own right – but stats suggest he shouldn’t have started every game in ’20-21. Emanga gives Northeastern yet another rangy wing option on the perimeter.
As if that wasn’t enough wing depth, Coen brought in Joe Pridgen from conference foe UNC Wilmington this offseason. Pridgen began his career at Holy Cross where he earned Rookie of the Year and 3rd Team All-Patriot honors. At UNCW he ranked 4th in the CAA in RPG and showed off his ability to score in multiple ways. Pridgen can be a go-to scorer for the Huskies when offense breaks down. Additionally, Notre Dame transfer Nikola Djogo joins the team as well. He’ll be most valued for his veteran leadership (captain at ND), but he can shoot the longball too.
Northeastern is thin on top-line size, but Chris Doherty makes up for his relatively lacking height with tenacity and strength. Doherty was hurt for much of last year but should be a key part of the Huskies’ success in ’21-22. He’s a rebound machine – arguably the best rebounder in the conference – as he showed against William & Mary in the CAA Tournament when he grabbed 18 boards.
When Doherty is off the floor, Coen can go to Alexander Nwagha, a rebounder and rim protector, or simply have Telfort or Strong slide over and go small.
Lack of interior size hurt the Huskies defensively last season, but they were still the best defensive squad in the CAA (and likely will be again this year). Coen always has good defensive teams who control the glass and take away the 3-ball. As alluded to earlier, the amount of wing size on this roster is impressive and that should pay dividends on the defensive end. Most of Coen’s lineups will not have anyone under 6’5” on the floor, which helps cover up his interior vulnerability. At 6’6”, Walters is going to engulf opposing point guards like a glove engulfs a hand.
Bottom Line: Northeastern is never sexy nor particularly fun to watch, but it seems to always be among the better teams in the Colonial and one of the toughest mid-majors in the country. Tyson Walker is gone but there’s still plenty to like on this year’s roster, enough to put the Huskies on the favorites list to win the CAA title.
3. Hofstra
Key Returners: Jalen Ray, Caleb Burgess, Kvonn Cramer, Omar Silverio
Key Losses: Isaac Kante, Tareq Coburn, Vukasin Masic, David Green, Kevin Schutte
Key Newcomers: Zach Cooks (NJIT), Aaron Estrada (Oregon), Abayomi Iyiola (Arkansas), Darlinstone Dubar (Iowa State), Jarrod Simmons (Penn), Jaquan Carlos
Lineup:
Outlook: A new era begins in Hofstra hoops, but it will have a familiar face leading the way. All-time Hofstra basketball great Speedy Claxton takes over as head coach for Joe Mihalich, who missed all last season while on medical leave. Claxton was an assistant to Mihalich since the legendary coach took the Pride gig back in 2013. He’ll be tasked with maintaining a high level of play and continuing Milhalich’s work of building the program into an annual CAA title contender.
Mike Farrelly was Hofstra’s interim coach last season, and let’s just say it didn’t go well. Hofstra was one of the most frustrating teams last season due to its inconsistency and failure to win (or cover) despite its considerable talent. Claxton will have three starters back from last season’s squad including its best player. In addition, Speedy hit the transfer wire hard this offseason and struck gold with a 5-man DI transfer class. The Pride should be among the favorites to win the CAA in ’21-22.
Claxton has been quoted in a few places saying he will largely maintain a similar offense to Mihalich. That’s a good thing. Mihalich had six straight top 75 offenses, per KenPom, leading up to his NCAA Tourney squad in 2020. Hofstra is one of the heaviest pick-n-roll teams in the country, and Claxton has a treasure chest of guards to use in that system. The goal of the Pride’s attack is simple: get good shots.
With the return of Caleb Burgess and Jalen Ray and additions of Zach Cooks and Aaron Estrada, the Pride will always have at least two ball handlers on the floor. All four of these guards can handle the rock, score off ball screens, and facilitate to teammates. Depth has been a weakness for Hofstra in recent years, but it will be a strength this season.
Burgess really improved as a sophomore in ’20-21, starting every game at point and mustering a 30%+ assist rate. While he still had some lingering turnover issues from his freshman campaign, he did button down the mistakes to a tolerable degree and proved to be a worthy catalyst at the point of attack. Shooting will be his next improvement point, as he’s just 44% from 2 and 25% from 3 against DI competition for his career.
Ray’s return for his 5th year puts Hofstra’s ceiling into another stratosphere. The 6’2” stud guard was a 1st Team All-CAA choice last season and will be on the shortlist of Player of the Year candidates in 2021-22. A career 39% outside shooter on high volume, Ray is a deadly offensive weapon:
He scored 0.932 PPP coming off ball screens last year, good for the 85th percentile nationally, per Synergy.
While Ray was efficient last year, he fell into “hero mode” occasionally and tried to do too much on the offensive end. This is where the addition of Cooks will really show. Cooks was a do-everything guard for NJIT the last four years, etching his name on the 3rd Team All-America East squad last season and capturing 2x All-ASUN honors prior to that. He can shoot, score, and do pretty much anything with the ball in his hands. He’ll help alleviate offensive pressure off Ray, and in turn Ray will do the same for him. Expect Cooks to shine on a squad where he doesn’t have to do everything on the floor and drive the bus every night.
Estrada was the MAAC Rookie of the Year and a 3rd Team All-Conference selection in 2020 when he played for Saint Peter’s, but he didn’t see nearly as much time at Oregon (might have bit off more than he could chew with that transfer). Having played under two great defensive coaches, Estrada knows how to D-up and he’s shown flashes of his offensive ability. With his size and ball-handling, Estrada can play the 1, 2, or 3 in Claxton’s lineup.
With the two stud transfers coming to town, returner Omar Silverio likely takes a backseat in the rotation, and fellow returner Zion Bethea won’t see much run either. Freshman PG Jaquan Carlos has the best chance of the newcomers to see minutes, but even he might be limited in his first year. Carlos is a 3-star recruit who scored over 90 points twice in high school… yeah, 90 points. Was the competition good? I don’t know, but it happened. Fellow freshmen wings Griffin Barrouk and Amar’e Marshall are solid gets for the 2021 class but unlikely to make a huge splash this year.
Hofstra’s top frontcourt returner is Kvonn Cramer, a CAA All-Rookie Team member last season who ranked 3rd in the league in OR% and 6th in block rate and ranked 9th in the country in 2PFG%. Cramer has a wealth of breakout potential as he enters his sophomore year and could be in line for All-Conference honors. The one knock on Cramer is he tends to float on the perimeter on offense – Hofstra rarely played through him on the block due to the departed Isaac Kante’s presence. That’s where Arkansas transfer Abayomi Iyiola will come in handy. Iyiola played one game for the Hogs, but he was excellent at Stetson where he led the Hatters in scoring and rebounding back in 2018-19. He’ll give Hofstra a back-to-the-basket threat and positively impact rebounding on both ends of the floor.
Iowa State transfer Darlinstone Dubar and Penn transfer Jarrod Simmons will be the primary backups in the frontcourt. Freshman Christian Tomasco, a stretch 4, has potential down the road. Dubar started seven games for the Clones and should be an asset on the glass and defensively. Simmons adds more rebounding and leadership to the fold.
We’ll close with a discussion on defense because it’s half the game and Hofstra sucked at it basically every season under Mihalich. The former coach played a ton of zone, mixing and matching a 1-3-1 with a matchup 2-3. This defense was brutalized year in and year out and even struggled last season under Farrelly. Claxton told Blue Ribbon and the Marching to Madness podcast he will be playing mostly man this season, a stark shift from the Mihalich era. He has the athletes to be successful in this scheme: Ray was 3rd in the league in steal rate last season, Burgess is a big PG, and Estrada is a big wing with a defensive background. But it’s Cooks who will have the greatest impact. Cooks is the all-time leading swiper in the DI era at NJIT and ranked in the top three in steal rate in his conference all four years at NJIT. He’s only 5’11” but he has a stupid 6’7.5” wingspan that more than makes up for his height.
Hofstra’s perimeter defense could be lockdown with Cooks in charge. Up front, Iyiola is a rim protector, Cramer is long and active, and Dubar has potential as well. This will be a massively different defensive team than in years past.
Bottom Line: Hofstra will be one of the favorites to win the CAA this season. The Pride have a ton of talent returning, a ton of talent coming in through the portal, and a coach who knows the program inside and out who served under Joe Mihalich for seven seasons. Hofstra will look to play its first NCAA Tournament contest since 2001, when it was a 13-seed under some guy named Jay Wright.
4. Delaware
Key Returners: Ryan Allen, Dylan Painter, Kevin Anderson, Andrew Carr, Johnny McCoy, Ebby Asamoah, Gianmarco Arletti, Aleks Novakovich, Anthony Ochefu
Key Losses: None
Key Newcomers: Jameer Nelson Jr. (George Washington), Reggie Gardner Jr. (NC Central / Redshirt), Logan Curtis (East Carolina / Redshirt), Jyare Davis (Providence)
Lineup:
Outlook: Delaware was picked to finish 2nd in the CAA by media members (well, 5th by our Jim Root – great call, Jim, great call) heading into last season fresh off an impressive 22-11 (11-7) campaign. But, like so many other teams around the country, COVID stoppages and injuries plagued the Blue Hens all year long. Delaware didn’t play its first DI game until December 8th and managed to play just 15 games overall. No doubt head coach Martin Ingelsby is eager to turn the page to 2021-22, especially with arguably his best roster in his 6-year tenure at his command.
Ingelsby has kept a short bench at Delaware over the past few seasons, but he has a deep bench this year, which will hopefully help keep his three stars rested and healthy. Those three stars highlight the Hen squad, and all three of them are in their 5th collegiate season. Ryan Allen and Kevin Anderson return to lead the backcourt, two of the better guards in program history. Allen was a 3rd Team All-CAA member last season and Anderson likely would’ve been had he not missed four games with injury. Delaware will need Allen, the 9th all-time leading scorer in Hen history, to rediscover his outside shot. After shooting 38.9% from deep as a freshman and 37% as a sophomore, Allen has gone just 32.7% and 29.4% over the past two seasons. His shooting struggles last year were a microcosm of Delaware’s offense in 2020-21. When hitting, Allen is one of the best players in the league, a capable lead guard or catch-and-shoot / attacker on the wing.
Anderson took over majority of point duties last year for the departed Nate Darling. At 6’5” he causes major problems on the defensive end for opposing guards, and offensively he’s an excellent shooter, facilitator, and scorer. He might slide off the ball more this season with the arrival of George Washington transfer Jameer Nelson, Jr., but more on him in just a second.
Ingelsby’s third star is forward Dylan Painter, arguably the best frontcourt player in the CAA, and, come to think of it, that might not even be arguable. Painter earned 1st Team All-CAA and All-Defense honors last season after turning in a stellar year in which he led the league in rebounding rate on both ends of the floor, ranked 5th in block rate, and 2nd in FT rate. An afterthought at Villanova, Painter has blossomed into an unstoppable force in the Colonial.
Delaware can run offense through Painter on the block, and he’s a willing and able passer out of the post when double teams come calling.
Sophomore Andrew Carr will line up alongside Painter in the frontcourt. Carr enjoyed an excellent freshman campaign (probably should’ve made CAA All-Rookie???) showing off his floor stretching skills, passing vision, and burgeoning face-up game. The lanky forward is a nice complement to the bulkier Painter, and Carr’s astute enough defensively to man the 5 when Ingelsby opts to play smaller.
Aleks Novakovich and Anthony Ochefu round out the frontcourt depth. Novakovich is a stretchier big man while Ochefu, a former Stony Brook transfer, is a physical rebounder.
On the wing, Johnny McCoy, Ebby Asamoah, and Gianmarco Arletti all return with starting experience giving the Hens a wealth of depth in the backcourt. McCoy started 11 games last year and led the CAA in FT rate. He’s a basket attacker on offense and a solid defender on the other end. Asamoah was extremely efficient last season, shooting 45% from deep (41% vs. DI foes), but he’s even more valuable as a defender where he can guard multiple spots on the floor. He’ll have a large role this season off the bench. Arletti, an Italian wing, was inefficient as a freshman but had his moments including a 21-point outburst against Charleston in early January.
Ok, back to Nelson. He is in fact Jameer Nelson’s kid, and he’s a pretty good basketball player to boot! Nelson left GW midway through last season and joined Delaware in the spring semester. If Ingelsby opts to start Nelson, that will give Delaware three capable offensive catalysts on the floor at once surrounding a dominant post man. While not super-efficient last year, Nelson can be an electric playmaker and has the speed, quickness, strength, and athleticism to be a real impact player in the CAA this season.
Three playmakers surrounding a dominant post man sounds good, right? It is! And Delaware should be excited to have that lineup construction after struggling mightily on the offensive end in 2020-21. The Hens went from the 3rd best CAA offense and nearly top 100 in the country in ’19-20 to the 8th best CAA offense and 269th best in the country in ’20-21 (KenPom). Turnovers were a problem, which Nelson should help cure, but the main issue was shooting. Delaware’s 3P% tanked from 37.8% in ’18-19 and 35.2% in ’19-20 to just 31.4% last season. Painter was excellent, but without shooting Delaware’s cutting motion offense stalled. Given the improved depth, experience, and normality (hopefully) of this season, we should expect a return to form on this end in ’21-22.
On the opposite side of the spectrum, Delaware’s defense last season was excellent, ranking 2nd in the CAA in adjusted efficiency (KenPom). The Hens led the league in 2PFG% and 3PFG% defense and ranked 4th nationally in FG% allowed at the rim. Ingelsby preaches hard close-outs and running shooters off the arc and has gone away from his heavier zone looks of the past in favor of more man-to-man. There are some very good perimeter defenders on this roster, and Painter is one of the best post defenders in the league.
Though Ingelsby has more depth at his disposal, he likely won’t opt to go super deep into his bench on a nightly basis. This means former NC Central transfer Reggie Gardner, former East Carolina transfer Logan Curtis, Providence transfer Jyare Davis, and freshman Wes Peterson might find it difficult to find the court. Gardner was a 2nd Team All-MEAC selection as a freshman in ’17-18 (and a key role player in ’18-19), but he hasn’t played in two seasons due to injury. Curtis also missed last year with injury. Davis redshirted as well.
Bottom Line: Delaware will be one of the favorites to win the CAA this season, but it’s competitive at the top. The Hens return the most minutes in the league, but other squads return a ton, too, and brought in significant talent from the portal. With three of the best players in the Colonial plus potentially a fourth in Nelson, Ingelsby will have his best shot at reaching the NCAA Tournament. It would be the school’s first since 2014.
5. Charleston
Key Returners: Brenden Tucker, Osinachi Smart, Keegan Harvey
Key Losses: Zep Jasper, Payton Willis, DeAngelo Epps, Dontavius King, Brevin Galloway, Cameron Copeland, D’Avian Houston, Lorenzo Edwards
Key Newcomers: Fah’Mir Ali (Radford), John Meeks (Bucknell), Dalton Bolon (DII), Dimitrius Underwood (DIII), Nick Farrar (NC State), Charles Lampten (JUCO)
Lineup:
Outlook: Earl Grant spent seven seasons building the Charleston basketball program into a CAA contender. Grant led his Cougars to one NCAA Tournament and won 75 games in a three-year stretch from 2017 – 2019. Despite last season’s struggles Grant landed the Boston College job paving the way for new head coach Pat Kelsey.
Kelsey is homerun hire for this program, full stop. He nearly took the UMass job a couple years back and was surely on the shortlist of several Power 6 programs after turning Winthrop into a dominant mid-major force. Kelsey spent nine seasons at Winthrop but his last two were the most impressive, going 32-4 in conference play and earning a 12-seed in the Dance in 2021. Only three players return from last year’s Charleston squad, but Kelsey added a ton of talent from the transfer portal from just about every single level of basketball.
A new coach usually means a new style, and that is 100% accurate at Charleston this season. Kelsey and Grant’s tempo preference could not be farther apart on the spectrum. Grant played at one of the slowest tempos in the nation year in and year out, prioritizing a halfcourt attack and a pick-n-roll based offense. Kelsey played at one of the fastest paces at Winthrop, emphasizing transition and 3-point shooting.
Stats per KenPom
Kelsey’s style is certainly more entertaining to watch, but it also worked better the past several years. Most of Grant’s Charleston teams were severely offensively challenged whereas Kelsey’s Winthrop squads were consistently among the best in the Big South.
Defensive philosophy will change as well under Kelsey. Grant prioritized protecting the paint and the rim above all else, oftentimes allowing opponents to shoot 3s. Usually the Cougars were good on this end under Grant, using physicality to shutdown their opposition, but last year was an epic disaster. Though Charleston allowed the 10th lowest FGA rate near the rim last season per Hoop-Math, opponents converted a jaw-dropping 71.3% of their attempts, the 344th mark in the country. Kelsey’s Winthrop squad was similarly good at disallowing easy rim looks last year, but he also puts higher emphasis on running shooters off the arc and makes shutting down transition looks a priority.
Brenden Tucker, Osi Smart, and Keegan Harvey are Charleston’s three returners from the ’20-21 squad. Tucker is the lone backcourt returner, and he’s coming off a solid sophomore campaign in which he shot 39% from downtown while getting to the foul line at a high rate. Tucker’s length makes him an asset on the defensive end, as well. Smart is a rebounder and rim finisher, a physically imposing 5 who defends with positioning and physicality over shot-blocking. Harvey is a stretch 5 who shot 45% from the land of plenty as a freshman.
All three returners are fine players, but it’s the transfer talent that really leaps off the page.
Kelsey’s biggest DI scores are Radford transfer Fah’Mir Ali and Bucknell transfer John Meeks. Ali was a Big South All-Freshman honoree last season and could absolutely shine in Kelsey’s uptempo system.
He showed flashes of excellence in his rookie year, but inefficiency loomed in the form of turnovers and shot selection. With a year of college ball under his belt, Ali could be one of the better lead guards in the CAA.
Meeks was a 3rd Team All-Patriot selection last season, but he might have won Player of the Year if he played more games. In his six games, Meeks led the nation in scoring with a whopping 25.3 PPG and ridiculous shooting percentages.
Bucknell was 5-1 when Meeks played, though four of those wins were against Lehigh, and his absence from the lineup in those contests was stark. In those six games, Bucknell scored 1.10 PPP with Meeks on the floor versus just 0.95 PPP with him off, per HoopLens. If he stays healthy all season, he could be an All-CAA player.
Charleston’s other DI transfer is NC State import Nick Farrar, a former 3-star recruit who can play the 3 or 4. Farrar has reportedly gotten in excellent shape this offseason, dropping to 225 lbs. in October from a starting weight of 282 lbs. in June.
Kelsey looked past the DI market and went ahead and grabbed three All-Americans… from the DII, DIII, and JUCO ranks. DII transfer Dalton Bolon, a 3x All-American, will very likely be my favorite player in college basketball this season. Bolon is extremely vocal on the floor and can be a team leader immediately. He’s a good athlete, creative passer, great shooter, and smart player, a jack-of-all-trades who could find himself in the starting five all season. Plus, he wore a pirate eyepatch last year in a game, so, yeah.
Two-time DIII All-American Dimitrius Underwood should carve out a key role this season. He’s a bigger wing who can handle it and body up defensively. NCJAA All-American center Charles Lampten could very well usurp the starting 5 spot from Smart. Lampten has a 7’6” wingspan and is a defensive monster, blocking three shots per game last season.
Kelsey’s four-man freshman class is Reyne Smith, Raekwon Horton, Ben Burnham, and Babacar Faye. Smith is a lefty combo guard from Australia, a nice shooter who can handle the ball. Horton is a solid athlete on the wing. Burnham is a skilled forward, a solid passer and rebounder. Faye is an athletic big who should have an impact on the glass when on the floor.
Bottom Line: There’s a lot to like about Charleston this season. Pat Kelsey is arguably an upgrade on the sidelines (no disrespect to Grant) and this year’s squad arguably has more talent than the Cougars’ ’20-21 roster. In a wide open CAA Charleston certainly has the goods to compete for a conference title and NCAA auto-bid.
6. Drexel
Key Returners: Camren Wynter, James Butler, Mate Okros, Matey Juric, Xavier Bell, Lamar Oden, Coletrane Washington
Key Losses: TJ Bickerstaff, Zach Walton, Tim Perry
Key Newcomers: Melik Martin (Monmouth), Trevion Brown (DII)
Lineup:
Outlook: The Dragons were one of several conference tournament darlings last March, as they took home the CAA Championship hardware despite entering the postseason contest as the league’s 6-seed. But Drexel’s 4-5 conference mark was misleading. Analytically, the Dragons were consistently among the leaders in the CAA all season long, proving it by winning on the road against James Madison and Hofstra. Zach Spiker loses two starters from his Tourney squad, but he brings back his star bookends. Can lightning strike twice in Spiker’s 6th season?
Drexel’s star bookends, aka star PG and C, are Camren Wynter and James Butler. Wynter was a 1st Team All-CAA honoree last season and will be among the favorites to win the league’s Player of the Year award in 2022. He led the CAA in assist rate last season and shot over 41% from deep; he’s dangerously quick off the bounce and destroys defenders in pick-n-roll situations.
Wynter’s 5th season will allow him to keep climbing the school’s record books. He already ranks 5th all-time in assists at Drexel.
Butler was a 3rd Team All-CAA honoree last season and has ranked in the top five in conference rebounding rate on both ends of the floor in each of his three seasons at Drexel. He led the league in O-rating last year, showing his ability to finish inside, facing up from the mid-range, or from the charity stripe. Butler will be one of the better forwards in the league in his final season.
So, Spiker has his point guard, and he has his center. The meat in between ain’t so bad either. TJ Bickerstaff and Zach Walton are gone, but there’s plenty of promise in Spiker’s rising sophomore class, as well as in some grizzled returning vets. Mate Okros and Matey Juric are both upperclassmen looking to resume key roles. Okros is a sizable wing who has shot over 40% from deep for his career. He’s primarily a spot-up threat and is deadly sprinting and firing off screens. Juric is a scrappy, fearless combo guard who brings value on the defensive end. He’s a plug-and-play type of player who can do the dirty work on the floor. Another upperclassman, Coletrane Washington, will look to get back into the groove following a season in which he had to sit due to injury. In 2019-20, Washington shot over 43% from the land of plenty.
Spiker’s three-man sophomore class is a promising group and the future of the Drexel program. Chief among them is Xavier Bell, a quick combo guard who came on late at the end of last season. Bell started the team’s final seven games (they went 5-2) and averaged 7.7 PPG, adding value as a shooter and penetrator. Lamar Oden Jr. (not to be confused with Lamar Odom) is a skilled wing with prototypical size and two-way potential. Improving his outside shot will be the key to Oden’s minutes increase. Amari Williams is a huge post presence with rebounding ability. He’s raw offensively for now, but the potential is there.
Two transfers join the mix in Monmouth’s Melik Martin and DII Colorado State-Pueblo’s Trevion Brown. Martin was a 3rd Team All-MAAC member last season and a likely starter on this season’s Drexel squad. Martin can play multiple positions, but he might be best at the 4 where he can cause matchup problems with his shooting ability and versatility. Brown began his career at Coastal Carolina where he started 10 games as sophomore in 2018-19. He’s a career 45% from downtown against DI competition and showed off his offensive pop in the DII ranks while averaging over 14 PPG.
Freshmen Terrance Butler, a big wing/forward, and Ata Atsuren, a crafty Turkish guard, will likely spend most of ’21-22 on the pine.
Drexel thrived last season thanks to its offense, which ranked 104th nationally and #1 in the CAA per KenPom. Spiker slammed on the tempo breaks and played more of a half-court style than in years past, ranking 333rd in average possession length. The Dragons relied on deadeye outside shooting and the creation of Wynter, who gave them a steadying motor at the point of attack. This year should be more of the same – Wynter is back, the Dragons have plenty of shooters on the roster, and Butler is back to provide a post weapon.
Defense has never been a strong suit for Drexel under Spiker. Last season the Dragons were just 7th in the CAA in adjusted defensive efficiency (KenPom), a result of an inability to force turnovers, affect outside shooters, stop transition, and prevent easy buckets at the rim. The low defensive turnover rate is a common factor among Spiker teams at Drexel despite usually applying full-court pressure at a top 50 rate. He had a handful of Army teams that produced turnovers so perhaps this season could be the turning point. There’s certainly enough quickness and athleticism on the perimeter to improve.
Bottom Line: Drexel seems poised to repeat its level of play from last season – that is, be around a top 160 / 170 team in the country and compete for a CAA title. The Dragons will have plenty of competition for the CAA’s regular season prize, but Spiker has a veteran group led by the best point guard in the conference.
Tier 2
7. Elon
Key Returners: Hunter McIntosh, Hunter Woods, Darius Burford, Jerald Gillens-Butler, Zac Ervin, Chuck Hannah, Kris Wooten, JaDun Michael, Michael Graham
Key Losses: Ikenna Ndugba, Federico Poser, Simon Wright
Key Newcomers: Torrence Watson (Missouri), RJ Noord
Lineup:
Outlook: Mike Schrage’s second season at Elon was solid, but it could’ve been so much more. The Phoenix were decimated by injuries and COVID pauses, resulting in a lackluster 0-7 start to CAA play. But, like the mythical creature off which the Elon mascot is based, the team rose out of the ashes and rattled off seven straight victories on its way to the CAA title game. Per Bart Torvik, Elon was the 67th best team in the country from Valentine’s Day to the end of the year. Just seven points separated it from getting massacred by Illinois in the NCAA Tournament. Alas.
The artists formerly known as the Fighting Christians will be back with a vengeance this season. Only three key players depart from last season, but the most important ones return. Hunter McIntosh leads the way, and he’ll assume full-time point guard duties with the departure of Ikenna Ndugba. McIntosh is fresh off a season in which he landed on the CAA’s All-Conference 2nd Team. Throughout his young career he’s been steady as a rock with the ball in his hands and a deadly shooter / scorer to boot. In 2021-22, McIntosh will ascend into one of the best guards in the league.
McIntosh leads an offense that struggled hard last season. Losing Marcus Sheffield from the prior year obviously hurt, but the biggest blow came when former Butler transfer Jerald Gillens-Butler tore his Achilles in the third game of the season. Gillens-Butler was off to an excellent start, leading the team in scoring and providing leadership on that end of the floor. Without JGB, Elon’s offense severely lacked pop, and his absence exacerbated Zac Ervin’s absence as well. Per Blue Ribbon, Gillens-Butler might not be ready for the start of the season, but it’s a good bet we see him back in the lineup prior to the New Year.
Ervin seems ready to go after sitting out last season. He started 15 games as a freshman in 2019-20 and shot 35% from downtown. Elon is a 3-point reliant offense, so it needs his services back in the rotation. Ervin should be in the starting five mix all year long.
Guard play is supreme on Elon’s offensive end. Schrage spaces the floor with 4-out and even 5-out looks, using ball screens to initiate the attack and allowing his talented handlers to keep the ball and score or kick to spot-up shooters. Sophomore Darius Burford doubles as a talented handler and deadly spot-up shooter. Injuries allowed him to shine in his freshman year, earning CAA All-Rookie honors, shooting 37.5% from 3, and leading the conference in steal rate. Burford will team with McIntosh in the backcourt to give Elon a nice dual-PG look.
Hunter Woods returns to likely fill a starting role again. He’s a wing but plays plenty of 4 in Schrage’s smaller lineups. An excellent defensive rebounder, Woods ranked 3rd in the league last year in DR% and showed his versatility on offense by using his length to put the ball on the deck and score in traffic. He’ll pair with Chuck Hannah, an undersized yet physical 5, in the “frontcourt”. Hannah has consistently been one of the most efficient players in the CAA over the past three seasons, shooting only when necessary and embracing his role with enthusiasm
Assuming everyone is healthy, Elon has a very deep wing / backcourt corps to cycle through the rotation. Kris Wooten was limited to 11 games last season, but he’s been an on/off starter for three years. Wooten is primarily a spot-up shooter – he’s attempted 311 3s in his career versus just 82 2s and 17 FTs. JaDun Michael, the highest rated recruit in Elon history, is ready to breakout after a throwaway season in which he expected to sit. To put it frank, Michael was awful in his limited minutes and posted a 38.2 O-rating, but he’s clearly talented and poised for a much better season in ’21-22. His size will be especially valuable on the defensive end.
Mizzou transfer Torrence Watson, a former 4-star borderline top 100 recruit, carries the best prep school pedigree of anyone on the roster. But Watson was clearly out of his element in the SEC, struggling to find minutes and success on either end of the floor. He should feel more at home in the CAA, and he’ll give Schrage yet another big guard option to plug into the lineup. Fellow well-regarded recruit, 3-star PG RJ Noord, looks to be a future impact player. He could see some minutes this season as a ball handler / defensive stopper but will more likely settle in behind the incumbents.
Frontcourt size was a major issue last season for Elon and one of the true weaknesses on an otherwise solid defense. The Phoenix will be smaller again this season, but the emergence of sophomore Michael Graham could help make up for that. Graham is the 2nd highest rated recruit in school history and posted insane block rates when he saw the floor last season (16%!). Against James Madison on February 9th, Graham checked in with six swats.
Offensively, Graham is a true post and rim runner. He’s a bit raw on this end but holds plenty of potential. Miss State transfer Andrew Junkin is 7-feet tall, so that’s nice. He couldn’t find the floor at Miss State and likely won’t see a ton of time at Elon. Sam Sherry, a 6’10” freshman forward, looks to be a down-the-road asset.
Elon’s defense was good last season, especially during its late-year winning streak. The Phoenix had the 4th best D in the league per KenPom, led by their controlling of the defensive glass (15th in nation in DR%, 2nd in CAA). Schrage protects the middle with pack-line principles and forces opponents to be jump shooters, a smart strategy with a smaller squad. When the Phoenix were able to keep opponents out of the lane and away from the rim, they found success last season. Expect another solid performance on this end in ’21-22; Elon has plenty of size at the 2-4 spots and Graham as a potential gamebreaker at the rim.
Bottom Line: The top of the CAA is extremely crowded this season, but Elon is certainly in the mix for an upper-half finish and a dark horse to win the league. Schrage is an excellent coach, and he’ll look to get his program back on the right side of .500 in conference play for the first time since 2017.
8. Towson
Key Returners: Nicolas Timberlake, Jason Gibson, Charles Thompson, Juwan Gray
Key Losses: Zane Martin, Demetrius Mims, Jakigh Dottin, Solomon Uyaelunmo, Victor Uyaelunmo, Cam Allen
Key Newcomers: Terry Nolan Jr. (Bradley), Chase Paar (George Washington), Curtis Holland III (High Point / Redshirt), Antonio Rizzuto (Albany), Cam Holden (UT Martin)
Lineup:
Outlook: Towson endured a brutal 2020-21 season rife with injuries and COVID issues. The Tigers bottomed out to a 298th finish in KenPom and amassed a record of just 4-13 (3-9). This now marks the second time in three seasons Towson has finished just inside the top 300 – should we be concerned??
Eh, not really. Throw last season out, it was a trying year for everyone, and Towson faced a ton of adversity. Pat Skerry is a veteran coach with a long track record; he’ll look to right the ship with a much deeper team highlighted by a strong transfer class.
Fans of the Baltimore based program are likely starving for a prettier offensive product, but that’s not what Skerry ball is all about. Skerry ball pounds the offensive glass with reckless abandon and attacks the rim with such fervor you’d think the Tigers were playing volleyball. Towson plays strictly in the halfcourt and prioritizes close-proximity shots over 3s. Skerry’s motion offense relies on heavy cutting, hand-offs, and ball screens. Last year the Tigers were poor on this end, and they ranked 297th in ShotQuality’s shot quality metrics, not a recipe for success. Towson does have more offensive talent on this year’s roster despite the loss of Zane Martin, so perhaps the Tigers climb back up the national offensive efficiency rankings in ’21-22.
Defense is usually the strength of Skerry’s teams but last year was an utter disaster. Towson ranked 332nd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom, the worst ever in Skerry’s ten years at the helm. Luck was not on the Tigers’ side, as CAA opponents shot a blistering 40.1% from deep and 79.3% from the FT line, both top marks in the league. Those numbers are sure to regress in Towson’s favor, but the fact remains the Tigers showed little resistance to ball handlers and didn’t clean the glass like a typical Skerry squad.
Talent is coming to Towson, and that talent should produce major improvements on both ends of the floor. In the backcourt, Skerry brings in Bradley transfer Terry Nolan Jr. and Albany transfer Antonio Rizzuto, plus adds the services of former High Point transfer Curtis Holland III, who sat out last year with injury. Nolan likely starts at PG this season and provides a veteran presence at the point of attack. He’s a career 34%+ 3P shooter and ranked 5th in the MVC in assist rate last season. A big guard at 6’4” with impressive length, Nolan is sure to be a factor defensively, where he’ll look to swallow smaller guards on the perimeter and make initiating offense an undesirable chore.
Rizzuto is a defensive stalwart as well. He earned America East All-Defense and 2nd Team All-Conference honors at Albany and could find a spot in the starting lineup on opening night. Like Nolan, Rizzuto can shoot, having canned over 35% of his career 3-point tries. Holland adds even more shooting, as well as physical strength. However, he hasn’t played a game since January 11, 2020, due to injury.
UT Martin transfer Cam Holden is listed as a guard, but he’ll be playing almost entirely 3 or 4 for Towson. At UTM, Holden earned 2nd Team All-OVC honors and led the league in offensive rebounding rate despite standing just 6’5”. Holden has a nose for the ball, perfect for Skerry ball. He also gets to the line with regularity and can post smaller defenders with ease. Defensively, Holden is sure to have an impact as well after ranking 2nd in the OVC in steal rate in ’20-21.
Skerry’s 5th transfer is Chase Paar, a George Washington import who will challenge for starts at the 5. Paar is a solid rebounder and decent rim protector, and he is a worthy replacement for the Uyaelunmo bros. With Paar’s ability to shoot out to the arc, Skerry will be able to play him alongside returning starter Charles Thompson, a more paint bound presence in the frontcourt (though, Skerry has rarely shied away from playing two traditional bigs together). Thompson made the CAA’s All-Defense squad after ranking 2nd in the league in block rate. He’s an excellent offensive rebounder and physical forward. Expect plenty of horns sets and high-low team-ups involving Paar and Thompson this season.
Towson’s two best returning guards are Nicolas Timberlake and Jason Gibson. Timberlake was a full-time starter last season after winning the CAA Sixth Man of the Year award in 2019-20. Though clearly talented, Timberlake will need to improve on ugly shooting percentages. In 2020-21 Timberlake was sub-40% from 2 and sub-32% from 3. When at his best, Timberlake is a weapon coming off screens and hand-offs.
Gibson ran point last year alongside Martin, but he’s recovering from a back injury and still might be feeling its effects when the season gets underway. A creative driver and good shooter, Gibson will have stiff competition for minutes from the incoming transfers. He’ll also need to stay ahead in the pecking order of freshman Rahdir Hicks, a quick and feisty lead guard who could crack the rotation in year one.
Juwan Gray also returns from injury this season. He tore his Achilles back in December after starting four of Towson’s first five contests. Gray should be ready to go on opening day and will be one of the better forward options on the squad. He can score in the post or hit from behind the arc.
Darrick Jones Jr., a freakishly athletic wing, and Chris Biekeu, a prototypical physical rebounding Skerry presence, round out Towson’s returners. Freshmen Tyler Gill, a quick, compact PG, and Tyler Coleman, a 6’7” forward, round out the newbies.
Bottom Line: Towson is usually a top-half CAA threat under Skerry, and the Tigers should be able to play at that level in 2021-22. Skerry will need to mesh all his new pieces, but shooting and defense, two of Towson’s major issues last year, should be much improved. It’s not typical we see a team set to improve after losing its best player, but that’s what we should expect of Towson this season.
9. UNC Wilmington
Key Returners: Mike Okauru, Jaylen Sims, Jamahri Harvey, Shykeim Phillips
Key Losses: Ty Gadsen, Joe Pridgen, Jake Boggs, John Brown, Imajae Dodd, Brian Tolefree
Key Newcomers: Jaylen Fornes (Nicholls State), James Baker (Morehead State), Alec Oglesby (Cleveland State), Amari Kelly (Duquesne), Trazarien White (JUCO), Jamarii Thomas, Khamari McGriff
Lineup:
Outlook: It’s been tough sledding for the UNCW program since Kevin Keatts travelled up north to Raleigh. CB McGrath wasn’t the answer, and Sakayo Tiddle’s first season was marred by injuries and COVID pauses. The Seahawks have won just 18 CAA contests in the past four years – Keatts won 41 in three.
We’re going to give Siddle a pass for last season. His starting point guard was injured most of the year, his best player missed the last five games, and his team went through two 20+ day pauses. Nobody can win under those circumstances, especially a first-year coach with an abbreviated offseason. 2021-22 will be Siddle’s first true test – the CAA is wide open, his team is fully healthy, and he has a good mix of talent and experience on his roster. Wilmington will look to crack the top five of the CAA standings for the first time since 2017.
Siddle didn’t get a chance to run his preferred style to its fullest on both ends of the floor. Offensively, UNCW was uptempo, but it feels like Siddle would prefer his squad play even faster and be more of a “run-n-gun” attack versus a half-court dribble-drive attack. UNCW lacked shooting last year (especially when Jaylen Sims went down) and thus were forced to rely on rim running and the free throw line to score points. The Seahawks ranked 10th in the country in percentage of points scored from the charity stripe. Expect more transition this season, more three-point shooting, and a consistent dose of ball screens in a spread-out offense.
UNCW is about the guards, ‘bout the guards, ‘bout the guards, no treble. Siddle will often throw out four or even five “guards” on the floor at the same time, making his offense extremely difficult to defend. Former Florida transfer Mike Okauru, a 3rd Team All-CAA selection last year, and Jaylen Sims lead the way. Okauru was forced into point guard duties last season with the injury to Shykeim Phillips. He performed his duties admirably, ranking 5th in the CAA in assist rate and 7th in TO rate. Okauru developed into a leader and was the 2nd highest used player in the league. His impact was clearly seen in Hoop-Explorer on/off splits, as his Seahawks scored 104.4 points per 100 possessions on an adjusted basis when he played versus just 94.3 when he sat. That is an enormous margin.
Sims missed the final four games of last season with a knee injury, but he should be ready to go for the start of the ’21-22 season. He would’ve easily etched his name on the All-CAA squad had he finished the year after averaging nearly 18 PPG. With his improved outside shooting, Sims became impossible to defend – he can score from all three levels and can beat any defender in the CAA in isolation. He’ll have a good shot at leading the league in scoring in his senior season.
Phillips is back to run point after playing just the final two games of last season. He was a CAA All-Rookie selection in ’19-20, and he’s a bloodhound on the ball defensively. His return allows Okauru to play a more natural off-ball position and gives the Seahawks a better lineup for attacking the opposing offense in their full-court press.
Sophomore Jamahri Harvey started 13 games as a freshman last year, and Siddle told Blue Ribbon he expects him to breakout in his second season. Harvey will compete with Jaylen Fornes for a starting spot, as the latter returns to UNCW from Nicholls State for his final year. Fornes spent his first three seasons at UNCW and is a career 38% shooter from deep. He can hold his own at the 3 with his ability to mix it up, slash, and compete on the glass.
Cleveland State transfer Alec Oglesby will play a role with his sniper-like shooting. He shot 43% from downtown as a freshman for the Vikings. Freshman PG Jamarii Thomas could also see run in a backup role; he’s a freak athlete who can yam at just barely 6-foot and a dynamic and confident ball-handler and playmaker.
Defense was a nightmare last season. UNCW finished outside the top 300 in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency ratings and graded out as the worst defensive team in the CAA. Conference foes shot 60.4% inside the arc against UNCW, an unfathomably bad number for the defending team. Siddle obviously preaches running shooters off the 3-point line, as evidenced by his team’s 13th-best 3PA rate allowed, but when you have no interior resistance to speak of, that style results in handing the opposition layup after layup after layup. Siddle likes to pick up full-court – UNCW pressed at the 5th highest rate in the country per Synergy, implementing a trapping zone full-court press as well as man-to-man. Every indication is Siddle intends to continue and extend this pressure, especially with a deeper backcourt.
Frontcourt play needs to be better on both ends. Defensively, UNCW was brutalized at the rim and on the boards and killed on post-ups. Per Synergy, UNCW allowed 1.107 PPP on post-ups, the 343rd worst mark in the country. On offense, the Seahawks had zero frontcourt weapons capable of scoring on the block or keeping possessions alive. They should be improved on both ends in 2021-22.
Morehead State transfer James Baker will have the biggest impact in the frontcourt. He’s listed as a guard on the UNCW roster, but he will play mostly 4 and even small-ball 5. Baker is a versatile defender who comes from an awesome defensive program, and on offense he can shoot, drive, and get to the foul line. He’ll be a legit asset in the frontcourt this season.
Duquesne transfer Amari Kelly should see a ton of run, if for nothing else than he’s tall, can block shots, and can rebound. Kelly’s length is his greatest asset, and he gives UNCW something it sorely needed last season. JUCO newbies Trazarien White and Khadim Samb will play roles up front as well. White in particular will be impactful after averaging 18.5 PPG and 7.1 RPG last year in the JUCO ranks. Freshman Khamari McGriff rounds out the rotation, a long forward with a ton of potential.
Bottom Line: UNCW has a wide array of potential outcomes this season. If everything clicks offensively, the players stay healthy, and Siddle’s pressure scheme forces turnovers and bothers opponents effectively, a top five finish is in play. However, if the defense is still the worst in the league and shooting remains dicey, the Seahawks may be looking at yet another sub-.500 CAA season.
10. William & Mary
Key Returners: Yuri Covington, Connor Kochera, Quinn Blair, Mehkel Harvey, Ben Wight, Jake Milkereit, Miguel Ayesa, Thatcher Stone
Key Losses: Luke Loewe, Thornton Scott
Key Newcomers: Brandon Carroll (DII), Tyler Rice, Julian Lewis, Langdon Hatton
Lineup:
Outlook: William & Mary had a poor season in 2020-21, but to hear some speak of it you’d think the Tribe finished 0-17. It’s true W&M was 302nd in KenPom, its worst mark ever in the 25-year site history, but the Tribe were 4-6 in CAA play with wins over Delaware and Drexel. The Tribe beat George Washington in non-con play. And, for those bettors out there, the Tribe were 10-7 against the spread. Dane Fischer had an extremely young team last season – four freshman played major minutes. Pile that on top of COVID effects, which limited the Tribe to just 17 games, and it’s no mystery as to why they struggled. Nearly everyone returns from last season and Fischer appears to be building the program up the old-fashioned way: with freshmen. The Tribe shall rise again.
Luke Loewe’s departure is a tough blow to a team that struggled to score the basketball last year. Loewe was the only player on the squad to post an O-rating above 106, and he was the Tribe’s clear go-to guy when on the floor. Of course, Loewe was also part of the Tribe’s woeful shooting effort. He was 29.8% from deep on the year, and W&M as a team shot just over 27% from distance in CAA play, the worst in the league. With shooting coming at a premium, Fisher’s goal was getting the ball to the goal. William & Mary attempted the 7th highest rate of FGA at the rim last season, per Hoop-Math, normally a fantastic stat but not when the team finished at the 329th “best” clip in the country. The Tribe’s heavy pick-n-roll system is designed to get its quick and plentiful guards into the lane where they can get fouled, get layups, or kick to open shooters. The idea of the scheme is a good one, the execution was not in ’20-21.
Turnovers plagued William & Mary last year, and that will be the #1 improvement point for returning ball handler Yuri Covington. Covington showed flashes of brilliance as a freshman, scoring easily off screens at times and beating defenders in space.
But Covington was incredibly inefficient. He posted a disastrous 76 O-rating fueled by an absurd 32.2% TO rate. The point guard posted just 35 assists to a whopping 67 turnovers. When your lead ball handler is this inefficient, it is tough to win ball games. Fortunately for the Tribe, Covington was a freshman last year thrown into the proverbial fire. There’s every indication he’s due for improvement this season and last year’s growing pains could pay dividends for W&M in ’21-22 and down the road.
William & Mary’s other stud freshman last season was Connor Kochera, who captured the CAA Rookie of the Year award with his overall rock-solid performance. Kochera appears to be the next W&M star and will be seen as the go-to guy sans Loewe this season. He showed potential of being the primary option all last year, particularly during the Tribe’s two-game sweep of Towson when he averaged 26.5 PPG and 7.0 RPG.
Kochera was the Tribe’s best shooter last season and should be one of the better scorers in the CAA in 2021-22.
Fischer has plenty of bodies on the wing to fill out the third backcourt starting spot, but it’s unclear who that should be at this juncture. The leading candidate for my money is DII transfer Brandon Carroll, a physical specimen who can soar and shoot the 3. Carroll has DI experience, playing for Bryant for two years prior to transferring to Florida Southern, and he proved capable of being a top scoring option at the DII level. Look for Carroll to impact both ends of the floor and see plenty of PT even if it isn’t in the starting five.
Sophomore Jake Milkereit is the other leading candidate for starts, but he was awful on both ends last year. He should be improved, and he has good size, but he’s a definite “wait and see” guy for now. Miguel Ayesa is a one-role spot-up shooter, a career 36%+ bomber who has attempted 142 3s to just 12 2s in his two seasons at W&M. Thatcher Stone is a defensive wing who hustles but lacks offensive pop.
Blue Ribbon’s (very good) write-up implies Fischer might start Latvian junior Rainers Hermanovskis at point and slide Covington off the ball. This would be shocking for me. Though Hermanovskis did play for the Latvia U20 national squad this past summer, he’s been an afterthought through two seasons at William & Mary. The better option might be freshman Tyler Rice, brother of former Citadel gunner Kaiden Rice. Rice is a legit PG with scoring prowess; it wouldn’t be surprising to see him fill a backcourt lineup alongside Covington and Kochera. Fellow freshman Julian Lewis will add wing depth; he’s long and versatile and a gifted passer.
Post play was a major problem for William & Mary last season, a far cry from the teams with Nathan Knight in the frontcourt. The Tribe used among the lowest possessions via post-up in the country, per Synergy, a combined result of scheme and lack of big man talent. Quinn Blair is a viable offensive option, but he’s more of a wing in nature, preferring to float on the perimeter where he can shoot or drive past slower-footed defenders. Blair is adept at getting to the foul line, drawing the most fouls per 40 minutes in the CAA last season and ranking 3rd in FT rate. He’ll line up next to either Mehkel Harvey or Ben Wight in the starting five. Harvey was a CAA All-Defense selection last year and ranked 11th in the country in block rate. His huge wingspan gives the Tribe an interior anchor, and he also commanded the glass, ranking 2nd in the league in OR% and 5th in DR%. Harvey isn’t much of a factor on offense, though, which is where the rising sophomore Wight comes in. Wight has burgeoning skill on offense and held his own defensively last season, ranking 4th in the league in block rate and 5th in steal rate. Freshman big man Langdon Hatton could see some run in his first season. He’s physically ready for DI ball and has a nice little jumper to pair with his size.
With two All-Defense members last season (Harvey and Loewe) it’s surprising the Tribe weren’t better on that end in ’20-21. W&M ranked just 8th in adjusted defensive efficiency in the CAA, primarily a consequence of lack of pressure (dead last in TO rate) and lack of rebounding (9th in DR%). Opposing teams shot well against them and got plenty of second chances. With Harvey, White, and possibly Hatton inside, W&M should be improved up front. Carroll is a boon for the perimeter defense, but guys like Covington and Kochera need to be more active on this end for the Tribe to rise above the CAA cellar.
Bottom Line: The CAA is a muddled mess this season with multiple teams capable of rising up the ranks and pulling an auto bid to the Dance. William & Mary might be a year or two away from its first NCAA Tournament, but Fischer has good young talent forming a foundation for future success.