- Ky McKeon
Key Returners: Keyontae Johnson, Scottie Lewis, Noah Locke, Tre Mann, Ques Glover, Omar Payne
Key Losses: Kerry Blackshear Jr., Andrew Nembhard
Key Newcomers: Tyree Appleby (Cleveland State), Anthony Duruji (Louisiana Tech), Samson Ruzhentsev, Niels Lane, Osayi Osifo (JUCO), Colin Castleton (Michigan)***
*** Castleton is from Deland, FL. There’s been precedence of waivers being granted for players going back home during COVID-19. As of this preview date, he has not been granted a waiver.
Lineup:
Florida was arguably the most disappointing team of the 2019-20 season. The Gators were picked 6th in the preseason top 25 poll and many (including us) thought them worthy of being called national title contenders. Mike White had a young roster chock full of talent plus the services of the best grad transfer on the market in Virginia Tech’s Kerry Blackshear, Jr. Despite all the talent and expectations, Florida managed a measly 19-12 (11-7) record and ended the season without a single AP Top 25 vote. Last year marked the third straight in which White has underachieved from an expectations standpoint. The coach once thought of as a frontrunner for succeeding Coach K at Duke is slowly losing his reputation as one of the nationally elite coaches in the country.
White has ample resources with which to regain his sterling reputation this season. Blackshear is gone, as is stud point guard Andrew Nembhard, who opted to transfer this offseason. Everyone else returns to a roster that was the nation’s 6th youngest in 2019-20. These sophomore and junior classes are overflowing with talent and athleticism, plus White adds the services of three solid transfers and a couple HS recruits. UF is a lock to make another Tourney this season, but its seeding will largely depend on White – the sky is the limit with this roster.
Florida’s offense was very good in 2019-20, ranking 2nd in the SEC and 27th nationally per KenPom. But, to us and many others, it wasn’t nearly as good as it could have been. Part of this may lie in White’s decision to implement a slower, more half-court focused attack two seasons ago versus his run-n-gun style at Louisiana Tech and early Florida seasons. The Gators were the second slowest team in the SEC and utilized a heavy pick-n-roll and dribble-drive half-court offense to score points. Florida was efficient using this style – the team shot very well overall – but why put brakes on a roster that is teeming with athleticism? White’s personnel is built to run and overwhelm opponents with length and athleticism, but that’s not how they played in 2019-20. Hopefully with a more mature group at his disposal, White will add a little more slack to the leash.
From a player perspective, the most glaring hole that needs to be addressed is at point guard, where Nembhard’s departure leaves uncertainty. Per Hoop Lens, when Florida’s offense was ran by somebody other than Nembhard, it struggled mightily to score the ball:
Info per Hoop Lens
This gets even worse when you take Nembhard off the court completely – in lineups with just Tre Mann on the floor and no Nembhard, UF scored just 0.88 PPP; in lineups with just Ques Glover and no Nembhard, the Gators eked out just 0.86 PPP. In 2020-21, White has three viable options to start at the point: Mann, Glover, and Cleveland State transfer Tyree Appleby. Mann, a 5-star McDonald’s All-American in the class of 2019, has the pedigree to ascend to SEC starting point guard, but his play last year left much to be desired. He shot the ball poorly last year and turned the ball over at a high rate, oftentimes looking uncomfortable with the rock in his hands. Perhaps part of that was pressure and hopefully a year under his belt will help him gain confidence as a sophomore. On the defensive side of the ball, Mann’s length will be a true asset, and he was arguably a better defender than Nembhard in 2019-20.
Glover offers a different sort of look at the lead guard spot. Unlike Mann, Glover is a jitterbug on the floor and relies on his quickness and tight handle to run the offense and get into the paint. Like Mann, Glover also struggled to shoot the ball efficiently and he too was plagued by turnover issues. Appleby was a 2nd Team All-Horizon selection as a sophomore and the 3rd highest used player in the league. He comes in with a reputation as an all-out scorer, but also proved he could be a table setter at CSU by leading the conference in assist rate (12th in the nation). Appleby won’t need to be as ball dominant at Florida, but his veteran presence could help bring stability to the lineup as Mann and Glover continue to mature. The former CSU guard is great out of the pick-n-roll, perfect for White’s preferred style of offense.
The three aforementioned guards can all play off the ball, but they’ll be competing for minutes with the likes of 6’3” junior Noah Locke and freshmen Samson Ruzhentsev and Niels Lane. Locke was fantastic in his role last season, ranking #1 in the SEC in O-rating. He is a spot-up shooter who knocked down 42.9% of his threes on a high volume and complements an otherwise drive-focused, athletic Florida roster. Ruzhentsev, a top 50 4-star recruit originally from Moscow, is more of a wing than a true 2. He’s a long athlete with excellent ball skills and a nice shot off the dribble. Lane is an athletic top 150 3-star with a good shooting touch and driving ability. Both rookies could carve out rotation spots in their first seasons in Gainesville.
Moving to the wing, Florida’s two most intriguing players on the roster will occupy the starting 3 and 4 spots, respectively. At small forward, Scottie Lewis promises to explode in his sophomore season. The SEC All-Freshman member was a low usage player in 2019-20 but highly efficient, knocking down 43.6% of his longball tries in conference play. Lewis is a defensive menace with his versatility, able to block shots and force turnovers with the best of them and his athleticism is near the top of the SEC. Junior forward Keyontae Johnson was the only Gator on the SEC’s First Team last year after turning in an awesome season. Johnson ranked 2nd in the league in O-rating and ranked 8th in steal rate and 3rd in DR%. The 6’5” forward is nearly impossible to stop when he gets momentum going downhill – his size allows him to bully defenders into the lane and score with ease on straight-line drives.
Expect Johnson to be Florida’s most valuable player this season and compete for SEC Player of the Year.
In addition to Ruzhentsev and Lane, Louisiana Tech Anthony Duruji will also compete for minutes on the wing off the pine. Duruji is a scrappy athlete who impacts the game defensively and on the glass. Like Johnson, Duruji is comfortable playing the 3 or 4 and can extend the floor with his outside shooting ability.
Inside is where the Gators will need former role players to really step up. Blackshear was great offensively, but he lacked something Florida usually relies upon in its defense – shot blocking. White generally likes to run teams off the three-point line and funnel them into the paint where a rim protector lurks. Florida’s 2019-20 squad didn’t really have that type of player consistently. This season, there’s reason to believe it does. Sophomore forward Omar Payne was terrific in limited minutes last season, posting high rebounding rates and, more importantly, a high block rate. He takes up space in the paint with his long arms and is good enough around the bucket to not be a liability offensively. Payne will be spelled by 6’11” 300 lb. behemoth Jason Jitoboh, an enormous presence in the lane, and top 30 JUCO prospect Osayi Osifo. Osifo is an Eastern Florida State College product, a 6’7” forward with a giant 7’1” wingspan. Offensively, Osifo is mostly catch-and-dunk but MAN can he dunk. He should also bring energy to the floor and provide those “hustle plays” that don’t show up in the stat sheet. If Colin Castleton, a 6’11” Michigan transfer, is granted a waiver, he’ll compete for a starting gig and provide the Gators with more rebounding and shot-blocking.
To finish the preview, let’s quickly talk defense. Aside from Florida’s goal of running teams off the line, the Gators also want to slow opponents down. Only 14 teams forced opponents to play an average longer possession than the Gators in 2019-20. UF didn’t do anything poorly on defense, but it also didn’t do anything great, which led to it being White’s worst defensive squad in his Florida tenure and third worst of his coaching career. Strangely, Florida stopped pressing last season almost entirely after pressing on 20% of its possessions in 2018-19. Again, this goes back to the head-scratching decision to play a half-court style of offense – if you have the athletes, why play slow? With a lack of pressure, Florida allowed its opponents to ease into their half-court sets, which contributed to UF’s struggles defensively.
Bottom Line: With the risk of being “armchair coach” over here, I’d like to formally implore Coach White to ramp up the tempo on both ends of the floor in 2020-21. He may not, but he certainly has the personnel to do it and do it successfully. Florida’s floor is high this season for the simple fact it has one of the most talented rosters in America. The ceiling is also quite high, but after three straight years of underachievement, I’m operating on a wait-and-see approach to the Gators’ ranking.